Longmanlee
2021-12-06
Prepare bullets guys
Insider buying says a Santa Claus rally is on the way -- here are 10 stocks they favor<blockquote>内部买入称圣诞老人反弹即将到来——以下是他们青睐的 10 只股票</blockquote>
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Hang on to your stock-market exposure and add more if you can.The twin fears spooking investors – the omicron COVID strain and inflation – are overdone. Stocks should proceed higher as more people figure this out, leading to a Santa Claus rally later this month.There are lots of stock bargains because there’s been so much damage, even if narrower indexes like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have hu","content":"<p>Corporate insiders stepped up buying considerably when the stock market weakened</p><p><blockquote>当股市疲软时，公司内部人士大幅增加了购买力度</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cb7144fa943d84b96ae88faa9be5533\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MarketWatch composite/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MarketWatch 综合/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Hang on to your stock-market exposure and add more if you can.</p><p><blockquote>坚持你的股票市场敞口，如果可以的话增加更多。</blockquote></p><p> The twin fears spooking investors – the omicron COVID strain and inflation – are overdone. Stocks should proceed higher as more people figure this out, leading to a Santa Claus rally later this month.</p><p><blockquote>令投资者担忧的双重担忧——奥密克戎新冠疫情紧张和通货膨胀——被夸大了。随着越来越多的人意识到这一点，股市应该会继续走高，从而导致本月晚些时候出现圣诞老人反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Corporate insiders confirm this view. They’ve stepped up buying considerably in the market weakness. What’s more they’re buying all the right groups – travel, retail, energy and materials, among others. These are the cyclical areas that’ll do the best as worries about growth recede, and insiders know it. I don’t see any hunkering down in defensive names like consumer staples.</p><p><blockquote>企业内部人士证实了这一观点。在市场疲软的情况下，他们大幅增加了购买量。更重要的是，他们购买的是所有合适的群体--旅游、零售、能源和材料等。随着对经济增长的担忧消退，这些周期性领域将表现最好，业内人士都知道这一点。我没有看到像消费必需品这样的防御性名称有任何驻足。</blockquote></p><p> There are lots of stock bargains because there’s been so much damage, even if narrower indexes like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have hung tough, propped up by a few large names. The Russell 2000 small-cap index is down more than 10%, and most stocks in the more widely followed indexes like the S&P 500 have also fallen more than 10% at some point recently.</p><p><blockquote>尽管标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数等窄幅指数在少数大公司的支撑下表现强劲，但仍有很多股票便宜货，因为股市遭受了巨大的损失。罗素 2000 小型股指数下跌超过 10%，标普500等更广泛关注的指数中的大多数股票最近也在某个时候下跌超过 10%。</blockquote></p><p> I’ll single out 10 names favored by insiders, including several I’ve recently suggested in my stock advisory letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in my bio, below). But first, a quick look at why insiders, like me, don’t seem to be too worried about the twin fears.</p><p><blockquote>我将挑选出 10 个业内人士青睐的名字，其中包括我最近在我的股票咨询信中推荐的几个名字（链接在我的简历中，如下）。但首先，让我们来看看为什么像我这样的业内人士似乎并不太担心这对双胞胎的恐惧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Omicron</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奥密克戎</b></blockquote></p><p> The concern here is that this new variant is far more contagious and deadly than the delta variant.</p><p><blockquote>这里令人担忧的是，这种新变种比德尔塔变异毒株病毒更具传染性和致命性。</blockquote></p><p> The first fear may be true. Case counts are rising sharply in South Africa, which suggests it is more contagious. As for lethality, though, omicron seems to be mild so far. There is still a lot to learn, but this is the message we consistently get from doctors and health authorities with lots of experience with COVID.</p><p><blockquote>第一个恐惧可能是真的。南非的病例数急剧上升，这表明它的传染性更强。然而，至于致命性，到目前为止，奥密克戎似乎是温和的。还有很多东西要学，但这是我们从拥有丰富COVID经验的医生和卫生当局那里一直得到的信息。</blockquote></p><p> “What we are seeing clinically in South Africa, and remember I’m at the epicenter of this where I’m practicing, is extremely mild for us,” says Angelique Coetzee, a doctor in South Africa who has three decades of experience. “These are mild cases. We haven’t admitted anyone. I’ve spoken to other colleagues of mine and they give the same picture.”</p><p><blockquote>“拥有三十年经验的南非医生安吉莉克-库切（Angelique Coetzee）说：”我们在南非临床上看到的情况，记住我正处于我执业的中心，对我们来说是极其温和的。“这些都是轻微病例。我们还没有收治任何人。我和我的其他同事谈过了，他们也给出了同样的情况”。</blockquote></p><p> Hospitalizations in South Africa “are ticking up but not incredibly fast,” agrees William Hanage, an associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard and co-director of its Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics. U.S. health authorities confirm omicron may not be especially lethal. Both the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Minnesota Department of Health describe the first cases found in the U.S. so far as mild.</p><p><blockquote>哈佛大学流行病学副教授、传染病动态中心联合主任威廉-哈纳格（William Hanage）也认为，南非的住院人数 “正在上升，但速度并不快”。美国卫生当局证实奥密克戎病毒可能不会特别致命。疾病控制和预防中心和明尼苏达州卫生部都将美国迄今为止发现的首例病例描述为轻微病例。</blockquote></p><p> if the omicron variant is mild, this wouldn’t be a surprise. Respiratory viruses naturally evolve to be <i>more contagious and less lethal</i>, notes Professor Karl Lauterbach, an epidemiologist in Germany. This makes sense from the point of view of a virus. A virus has a better chance if it spreads quickly and does not kill its host.</p><p><blockquote>如果奥密克戎变种是温和的，这就不足为奇了。呼吸道病毒自然进化成<i>传染性更强，致命性更低</i>德国流行病学家卡尔·劳特巴赫教授指出。从病毒的角度来看，这是有道理的。如果病毒传播迅速并且不杀死宿主，它就有更好的机会。</blockquote></p><p> On vaccine “escape” or evasion, former Food and Drug Administration chief Scott Gottlieb thinks the current vaccines will work against omicron by suppressing symptoms enough to lower hospitalizations. “There’s a high degree of confidence that efficacy is going to be preserved,” he says. “Will it be the same 95%? Perhaps not, but you will still have a meaningful amount of efficacy.”</p><p><blockquote>关于疫苗的 “逃避 ”或规避，美国食品药品监督管理局前局长 Scott Gottlieb 认为，目前的疫苗将通过抑制足够多的症状来降低住院率来对抗奥密克戎病。“他说：”人们对保持疗效充满信心。“会是同样的 95%？也许不会，但你仍然会有相当大的疗效。”</blockquote></p><p> He notes the mRNA vaccine companies can tweak their vaccines to make them even better, in a matter of months. Vaccine companies like Pfizer confirm boosters will work, and that they’ll be able to customize them for the omicron variant. “In our view and reiterated by Pfizer, the current booster will likely be effective,” says Jefferies biotech analyst Michael Yee. “A new version for 2022 can be even better.”</p><p><blockquote>他指出，mRNA疫苗公司可以在几个月内调整他们的疫苗，使其变得更好。辉瑞公司（Pfizer）等疫苗公司证实，加强剂将发挥作用，他们将能够为奥密克戎变种定制加强剂。“杰富瑞生物技术公司分析师迈克尔-易（Michael Yee）说：”在我们看来，辉瑞公司也重申了这一点，目前的加强剂很可能是有效的。“2022 年的新版本可能会更好。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀</b></blockquote></p><p> There’s are lots of reasons to think inflation fears are overblown. The worry here is that the Federal Reserve is “behind the curve” so it will have to hike rates aggressively, which might kill growth and the bull market. This isn’t going to happen. One sign is that commodity prices and shipping costs have been falling sharply. These are often the leading edge of inflation.</p><p><blockquote>有很多理由认为对通胀的担忧被夸大了。令人担忧的是，美联储 “落后于曲线”，因此将不得不大幅加息，这可能会扼杀经济增长和牛市。这不会发生的。一个迹象是，大宗商品价格和运输成本一直在大幅下降。这些往往是通货膨胀的前沿。</blockquote></p><p> Next, take a moment to drill down on the current inflation spike. To do so, consider the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s breakdown of the parts of the Core CPI Index into “flexible” categories (quick to change) and “sticky” categories (slow to change). Right now, the flexible components account for most of the headline inflation.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，花点时间深入研究一下当前的通胀飙升。为此，请考虑亚特兰大美联储将核心 CPI 指数的组成部分分为 “灵活 ”类别（变化快）和 “粘性 ”类别（变化慢）。目前，灵活组成部分占总体通胀的大部分。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> These prices are up around 15% in the past year, compared to 3% gains for the “sticky” prices, points out economist Jim Paulsen, the market strategist at Leuthold Group. “While troublesome, the Core CPI Index’s overall rise is due almost entirely to prices that traditionally move around a lot, both up and down,” he says. This suggests the headline inflation rate can reverse and move down quickly from here.</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold Group 的市场策略师、经济学家吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）指出，这些价格上涨了约 15%，而 “粘性 ”价格上涨了 3%。“他说：”虽然令人不安，但核心 CPI 指数的整体上涨几乎完全是由于物价传统上波动较大，包括上下波动较大。这表明总体通胀率可能会从这里逆转并迅速下降。</blockquote></p><p> That’s what a lot of analysts and bond market investors think. Analysts expect inflation of less than 2% over the next two to 10 years, according to projections tracked by the Atlanta Fed. Meanwhile, the 10-year inflation rate projected by investors in the bond market stands at around 2.6%, notes Paulsen. Not terribly alarming.</p><p><blockquote>许多分析师和债券市场投资者都是这么认为的。根据亚特兰大联储跟踪的预测，分析师预计未来两到十年通胀率将低于 2%。与此同时，保尔森指出，债券市场投资者预测的 10 年期通胀率约为 2.6%。不是很令人担忧。</blockquote></p><p> These projections make sense to me, because companies say their supply chain issues will be fixed by around the middle of next year. Shortages linked to supply chain issues have been a main contributor to price spikes.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测对我来说是有意义的，因为公司表示他们的供应链问题将在明年年中左右得到解决。与供应链问题相关的短缺是价格飙升的主要原因。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, mobility tracking data from Alphabet,Apple,OpenTable and the Transportation Security Administration show that people in the U.S. have significantly curtailed how much they go out in public. On Nov. 30 and Dec. 1, TSA check-ins were 79%-81% of 2019 levels, compared to 85% to 90% in the prior 10 days, by my calculations. If this reduced mobility slows the economy a little, it will ease fears about inflation and the need for the Fed taking away the punch bowl too quickly.</p><p><blockquote>最后，来自Alphabet、苹果、OpenTable和运输安全管理局的移动跟踪数据显示，美国人已经大幅减少了在公共场合外出的次数。根据我的计算，11 月 30 日和 12 月 1 日，美国运输安全管理局的入住人数为 2019 年水平的 79%-81%，而前 10 天为 85% 至 90%。如果这种流动性的减少让经济放缓一点，它将缓解对通胀的担忧，以及美联储过快拿走潘趣酒碗的必要性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Insiders</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内部人士</b></blockquote></p><p> In a mini-replay of March-October of 2020 when the COVID crisis first raged, insiders have once again stepped up to buy market weakness caused by fresh COVID fears. True, insiders are not epidemiologists. But they are not dummies either. They have good networks of contacts and they see the tone of their businesses every day. Their buying is focused on all the right areas like cyclicals, retail, energy and industrials, not defensive names.</p><p><blockquote>在 2020 年 3 月至 10 月新冠危机首次爆发时的迷你重播中，内部人士再次加大力度应对新冠疫情担忧造成的市场疲软。没错，内部人士不是流行病学家。但他们也不是傻瓜。他们有良好的人脉网络，他们每天都能看到自己业务的基调。他们的购买集中在所有正确的领域，如周期性、零售、能源和工业，而不是防御性的名字。</blockquote></p><p> Companies where insiders have been buying meaningful amounts over the past several days include outdoor and retail names Six Flags Entertainment,American Eagle Outfitters,Nordstrom and American Woodmark; travel names like Delta Air Lines and Playa Hotels & Resorts ; energy names like Exxon Mobil and EOG Resources; and materials names like Cleveland-Cliffs and Orion Engineered Carbons.</p><p><blockquote>过去几天，内部人士大量购买的公司包括户外和零售公司 Six Flags Entertainment、American Eagle Outfitters、Nordstrom 和 American Woodmark；达美航空公司和普拉亚酒店及度假村等旅游公司；埃克森美孚和 EOG Resources 等能源公司；以及像克利夫兰悬崖和猎户座工程碳这样的材料名称。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ho, ho, ho!</b></p><p><blockquote><b>嗬，嗬，嗬!</b></blockquote></p><p> Their buying confirms work by seasonality and trading expert Larry Williams who tells me his work concludes we can expect a “Santa Claus” rally once again, later this month. We’ll see, but since the two main fears are false fears that will till take a little time to more fully recede, this makes sense to me.</p><p><blockquote>他们的买入证实了季节性和交易专家拉里-威廉姆斯（Larry Williams）的工作，他告诉我他的工作结论是，我们可以期待本月晚些时候再次出现 “圣诞老人 ”反弹。我们拭目以待，但由于这两种主要的恐惧都是虚假的恐惧，需要一点时间才能完全消退，所以这对我来说是有道理的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Insider buying says a Santa Claus rally is on the way -- here are 10 stocks they favor<blockquote>内部买入称圣诞老人反弹即将到来——以下是他们青睐的 10 只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInsider buying says a Santa Claus rally is on the way -- here are 10 stocks they favor<blockquote>内部买入称圣诞老人反弹即将到来——以下是他们青睐的 10 只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-06 15:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Corporate insiders stepped up buying considerably when the stock market weakened</p><p><blockquote>当股市疲软时，公司内部人士大幅增加了购买力度</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cb7144fa943d84b96ae88faa9be5533\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MarketWatch composite/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MarketWatch 综合/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Hang on to your stock-market exposure and add more if you can.</p><p><blockquote>坚持你的股票市场敞口，如果可以的话增加更多。</blockquote></p><p> The twin fears spooking investors – the omicron COVID strain and inflation – are overdone. Stocks should proceed higher as more people figure this out, leading to a Santa Claus rally later this month.</p><p><blockquote>令投资者担忧的双重担忧——奥密克戎新冠疫情紧张和通货膨胀——被夸大了。随着越来越多的人意识到这一点，股市应该会继续走高，从而导致本月晚些时候出现圣诞老人反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Corporate insiders confirm this view. They’ve stepped up buying considerably in the market weakness. What’s more they’re buying all the right groups – travel, retail, energy and materials, among others. These are the cyclical areas that’ll do the best as worries about growth recede, and insiders know it. I don’t see any hunkering down in defensive names like consumer staples.</p><p><blockquote>企业内部人士证实了这一观点。在市场疲软的情况下，他们大幅增加了购买量。更重要的是，他们购买的是所有合适的群体--旅游、零售、能源和材料等。随着对经济增长的担忧消退，这些周期性领域将表现最好，业内人士都知道这一点。我没有看到像消费必需品这样的防御性名称有任何驻足。</blockquote></p><p> There are lots of stock bargains because there’s been so much damage, even if narrower indexes like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have hung tough, propped up by a few large names. The Russell 2000 small-cap index is down more than 10%, and most stocks in the more widely followed indexes like the S&P 500 have also fallen more than 10% at some point recently.</p><p><blockquote>尽管标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数等窄幅指数在少数大公司的支撑下表现强劲，但仍有很多股票便宜货，因为股市遭受了巨大的损失。罗素 2000 小型股指数下跌超过 10%，标普500等更广泛关注的指数中的大多数股票最近也在某个时候下跌超过 10%。</blockquote></p><p> I’ll single out 10 names favored by insiders, including several I’ve recently suggested in my stock advisory letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in my bio, below). But first, a quick look at why insiders, like me, don’t seem to be too worried about the twin fears.</p><p><blockquote>我将挑选出 10 个业内人士青睐的名字，其中包括我最近在我的股票咨询信中推荐的几个名字（链接在我的简历中，如下）。但首先，让我们来看看为什么像我这样的业内人士似乎并不太担心这对双胞胎的恐惧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Omicron</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奥密克戎</b></blockquote></p><p> The concern here is that this new variant is far more contagious and deadly than the delta variant.</p><p><blockquote>这里令人担忧的是，这种新变种比德尔塔变异毒株病毒更具传染性和致命性。</blockquote></p><p> The first fear may be true. Case counts are rising sharply in South Africa, which suggests it is more contagious. As for lethality, though, omicron seems to be mild so far. There is still a lot to learn, but this is the message we consistently get from doctors and health authorities with lots of experience with COVID.</p><p><blockquote>第一个恐惧可能是真的。南非的病例数急剧上升，这表明它的传染性更强。然而，至于致命性，到目前为止，奥密克戎似乎是温和的。还有很多东西要学，但这是我们从拥有丰富COVID经验的医生和卫生当局那里一直得到的信息。</blockquote></p><p> “What we are seeing clinically in South Africa, and remember I’m at the epicenter of this where I’m practicing, is extremely mild for us,” says Angelique Coetzee, a doctor in South Africa who has three decades of experience. “These are mild cases. We haven’t admitted anyone. I’ve spoken to other colleagues of mine and they give the same picture.”</p><p><blockquote>“拥有三十年经验的南非医生安吉莉克-库切（Angelique Coetzee）说：”我们在南非临床上看到的情况，记住我正处于我执业的中心，对我们来说是极其温和的。“这些都是轻微病例。我们还没有收治任何人。我和我的其他同事谈过了，他们也给出了同样的情况”。</blockquote></p><p> Hospitalizations in South Africa “are ticking up but not incredibly fast,” agrees William Hanage, an associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard and co-director of its Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics. U.S. health authorities confirm omicron may not be especially lethal. Both the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Minnesota Department of Health describe the first cases found in the U.S. so far as mild.</p><p><blockquote>哈佛大学流行病学副教授、传染病动态中心联合主任威廉-哈纳格（William Hanage）也认为，南非的住院人数 “正在上升，但速度并不快”。美国卫生当局证实奥密克戎病毒可能不会特别致命。疾病控制和预防中心和明尼苏达州卫生部都将美国迄今为止发现的首例病例描述为轻微病例。</blockquote></p><p> if the omicron variant is mild, this wouldn’t be a surprise. Respiratory viruses naturally evolve to be <i>more contagious and less lethal</i>, notes Professor Karl Lauterbach, an epidemiologist in Germany. This makes sense from the point of view of a virus. A virus has a better chance if it spreads quickly and does not kill its host.</p><p><blockquote>如果奥密克戎变种是温和的，这就不足为奇了。呼吸道病毒自然进化成<i>传染性更强，致命性更低</i>德国流行病学家卡尔·劳特巴赫教授指出。从病毒的角度来看，这是有道理的。如果病毒传播迅速并且不杀死宿主，它就有更好的机会。</blockquote></p><p> On vaccine “escape” or evasion, former Food and Drug Administration chief Scott Gottlieb thinks the current vaccines will work against omicron by suppressing symptoms enough to lower hospitalizations. “There’s a high degree of confidence that efficacy is going to be preserved,” he says. “Will it be the same 95%? Perhaps not, but you will still have a meaningful amount of efficacy.”</p><p><blockquote>关于疫苗的 “逃避 ”或规避，美国食品药品监督管理局前局长 Scott Gottlieb 认为，目前的疫苗将通过抑制足够多的症状来降低住院率来对抗奥密克戎病。“他说：”人们对保持疗效充满信心。“会是同样的 95%？也许不会，但你仍然会有相当大的疗效。”</blockquote></p><p> He notes the mRNA vaccine companies can tweak their vaccines to make them even better, in a matter of months. Vaccine companies like Pfizer confirm boosters will work, and that they’ll be able to customize them for the omicron variant. “In our view and reiterated by Pfizer, the current booster will likely be effective,” says Jefferies biotech analyst Michael Yee. “A new version for 2022 can be even better.”</p><p><blockquote>他指出，mRNA疫苗公司可以在几个月内调整他们的疫苗，使其变得更好。辉瑞公司（Pfizer）等疫苗公司证实，加强剂将发挥作用，他们将能够为奥密克戎变种定制加强剂。“杰富瑞生物技术公司分析师迈克尔-易（Michael Yee）说：”在我们看来，辉瑞公司也重申了这一点，目前的加强剂很可能是有效的。“2022 年的新版本可能会更好。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀</b></blockquote></p><p> There’s are lots of reasons to think inflation fears are overblown. The worry here is that the Federal Reserve is “behind the curve” so it will have to hike rates aggressively, which might kill growth and the bull market. This isn’t going to happen. One sign is that commodity prices and shipping costs have been falling sharply. These are often the leading edge of inflation.</p><p><blockquote>有很多理由认为对通胀的担忧被夸大了。令人担忧的是，美联储 “落后于曲线”，因此将不得不大幅加息，这可能会扼杀经济增长和牛市。这不会发生的。一个迹象是，大宗商品价格和运输成本一直在大幅下降。这些往往是通货膨胀的前沿。</blockquote></p><p> Next, take a moment to drill down on the current inflation spike. To do so, consider the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s breakdown of the parts of the Core CPI Index into “flexible” categories (quick to change) and “sticky” categories (slow to change). Right now, the flexible components account for most of the headline inflation.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，花点时间深入研究一下当前的通胀飙升。为此，请考虑亚特兰大美联储将核心 CPI 指数的组成部分分为 “灵活 ”类别（变化快）和 “粘性 ”类别（变化慢）。目前，灵活组成部分占总体通胀的大部分。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> These prices are up around 15% in the past year, compared to 3% gains for the “sticky” prices, points out economist Jim Paulsen, the market strategist at Leuthold Group. “While troublesome, the Core CPI Index’s overall rise is due almost entirely to prices that traditionally move around a lot, both up and down,” he says. This suggests the headline inflation rate can reverse and move down quickly from here.</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold Group 的市场策略师、经济学家吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）指出，这些价格上涨了约 15%，而 “粘性 ”价格上涨了 3%。“他说：”虽然令人不安，但核心 CPI 指数的整体上涨几乎完全是由于物价传统上波动较大，包括上下波动较大。这表明总体通胀率可能会从这里逆转并迅速下降。</blockquote></p><p> That’s what a lot of analysts and bond market investors think. Analysts expect inflation of less than 2% over the next two to 10 years, according to projections tracked by the Atlanta Fed. Meanwhile, the 10-year inflation rate projected by investors in the bond market stands at around 2.6%, notes Paulsen. Not terribly alarming.</p><p><blockquote>许多分析师和债券市场投资者都是这么认为的。根据亚特兰大联储跟踪的预测，分析师预计未来两到十年通胀率将低于 2%。与此同时，保尔森指出，债券市场投资者预测的 10 年期通胀率约为 2.6%。不是很令人担忧。</blockquote></p><p> These projections make sense to me, because companies say their supply chain issues will be fixed by around the middle of next year. Shortages linked to supply chain issues have been a main contributor to price spikes.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测对我来说是有意义的，因为公司表示他们的供应链问题将在明年年中左右得到解决。与供应链问题相关的短缺是价格飙升的主要原因。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, mobility tracking data from Alphabet,Apple,OpenTable and the Transportation Security Administration show that people in the U.S. have significantly curtailed how much they go out in public. On Nov. 30 and Dec. 1, TSA check-ins were 79%-81% of 2019 levels, compared to 85% to 90% in the prior 10 days, by my calculations. If this reduced mobility slows the economy a little, it will ease fears about inflation and the need for the Fed taking away the punch bowl too quickly.</p><p><blockquote>最后，来自Alphabet、苹果、OpenTable和运输安全管理局的移动跟踪数据显示，美国人已经大幅减少了在公共场合外出的次数。根据我的计算，11 月 30 日和 12 月 1 日，美国运输安全管理局的入住人数为 2019 年水平的 79%-81%，而前 10 天为 85% 至 90%。如果这种流动性的减少让经济放缓一点，它将缓解对通胀的担忧，以及美联储过快拿走潘趣酒碗的必要性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Insiders</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内部人士</b></blockquote></p><p> In a mini-replay of March-October of 2020 when the COVID crisis first raged, insiders have once again stepped up to buy market weakness caused by fresh COVID fears. True, insiders are not epidemiologists. But they are not dummies either. They have good networks of contacts and they see the tone of their businesses every day. Their buying is focused on all the right areas like cyclicals, retail, energy and industrials, not defensive names.</p><p><blockquote>在 2020 年 3 月至 10 月新冠危机首次爆发时的迷你重播中，内部人士再次加大力度应对新冠疫情担忧造成的市场疲软。没错，内部人士不是流行病学家。但他们也不是傻瓜。他们有良好的人脉网络，他们每天都能看到自己业务的基调。他们的购买集中在所有正确的领域，如周期性、零售、能源和工业，而不是防御性的名字。</blockquote></p><p> Companies where insiders have been buying meaningful amounts over the past several days include outdoor and retail names Six Flags Entertainment,American Eagle Outfitters,Nordstrom and American Woodmark; travel names like Delta Air Lines and Playa Hotels & Resorts ; energy names like Exxon Mobil and EOG Resources; and materials names like Cleveland-Cliffs and Orion Engineered Carbons.</p><p><blockquote>过去几天，内部人士大量购买的公司包括户外和零售公司 Six Flags Entertainment、American Eagle Outfitters、Nordstrom 和 American Woodmark；达美航空公司和普拉亚酒店及度假村等旅游公司；埃克森美孚和 EOG Resources 等能源公司；以及像克利夫兰悬崖和猎户座工程碳这样的材料名称。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ho, ho, ho!</b></p><p><blockquote><b>嗬，嗬，嗬!</b></blockquote></p><p> Their buying confirms work by seasonality and trading expert Larry Williams who tells me his work concludes we can expect a “Santa Claus” rally once again, later this month. We’ll see, but since the two main fears are false fears that will till take a little time to more fully recede, this makes sense to me.</p><p><blockquote>他们的买入证实了季节性和交易专家拉里-威廉姆斯（Larry Williams）的工作，他告诉我他的工作结论是，我们可以期待本月晚些时候再次出现 “圣诞老人 ”反弹。我们拭目以待，但由于这两种主要的恐惧都是虚假的恐惧，需要一点时间才能完全消退，所以这对我来说是有道理的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/insider-buying-says-a-santa-claus-rally-is-on-the-way-here-are-10-stocks-they-favor-11638541634?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OEC":"Orion Engineered Carbons","XOM":"埃克森美孚","JWN":"诺德斯特龙","AEO":"美鹰服饰","AMWD":"美国伍德马克","EOG":"依欧格资源","PLYA":"Playa Hotels & Resorts NV","CLF":"克利夫兰克里夫","DAL":"达美航空"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/insider-buying-says-a-santa-claus-rally-is-on-the-way-here-are-10-stocks-they-favor-11638541634?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2188576930","content_text":"Corporate insiders stepped up buying considerably when the stock market weakened\nMarketWatch composite/Getty Images\nHang on to your stock-market exposure and add more if you can.\nThe twin fears spooking investors – the omicron COVID strain and inflation – are overdone. Stocks should proceed higher as more people figure this out, leading to a Santa Claus rally later this month.\nCorporate insiders confirm this view. They’ve stepped up buying considerably in the market weakness. What’s more they’re buying all the right groups – travel, retail, energy and materials, among others. These are the cyclical areas that’ll do the best as worries about growth recede, and insiders know it. I don’t see any hunkering down in defensive names like consumer staples.\nThere are lots of stock bargains because there’s been so much damage, even if narrower indexes like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have hung tough, propped up by a few large names. The Russell 2000 small-cap index is down more than 10%, and most stocks in the more widely followed indexes like the S&P 500 have also fallen more than 10% at some point recently.\nI’ll single out 10 names favored by insiders, including several I’ve recently suggested in my stock advisory letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in my bio, below). But first, a quick look at why insiders, like me, don’t seem to be too worried about the twin fears.\nOmicron\nThe concern here is that this new variant is far more contagious and deadly than the delta variant.\nThe first fear may be true. Case counts are rising sharply in South Africa, which suggests it is more contagious. As for lethality, though, omicron seems to be mild so far. There is still a lot to learn, but this is the message we consistently get from doctors and health authorities with lots of experience with COVID.\n“What we are seeing clinically in South Africa, and remember I’m at the epicenter of this where I’m practicing, is extremely mild for us,” says Angelique Coetzee, a doctor in South Africa who has three decades of experience. “These are mild cases. We haven’t admitted anyone. I’ve spoken to other colleagues of mine and they give the same picture.”\nHospitalizations in South Africa “are ticking up but not incredibly fast,” agrees William Hanage, an associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard and co-director of its Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics. U.S. health authorities confirm omicron may not be especially lethal. Both the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Minnesota Department of Health describe the first cases found in the U.S. so far as mild.\nif the omicron variant is mild, this wouldn’t be a surprise. Respiratory viruses naturally evolve to be more contagious and less lethal, notes Professor Karl Lauterbach, an epidemiologist in Germany. This makes sense from the point of view of a virus. A virus has a better chance if it spreads quickly and does not kill its host.\nOn vaccine “escape” or evasion, former Food and Drug Administration chief Scott Gottlieb thinks the current vaccines will work against omicron by suppressing symptoms enough to lower hospitalizations. “There’s a high degree of confidence that efficacy is going to be preserved,” he says. “Will it be the same 95%? Perhaps not, but you will still have a meaningful amount of efficacy.”\nHe notes the mRNA vaccine companies can tweak their vaccines to make them even better, in a matter of months. Vaccine companies like Pfizer confirm boosters will work, and that they’ll be able to customize them for the omicron variant. “In our view and reiterated by Pfizer, the current booster will likely be effective,” says Jefferies biotech analyst Michael Yee. “A new version for 2022 can be even better.”\nInflation\nThere’s are lots of reasons to think inflation fears are overblown. The worry here is that the Federal Reserve is “behind the curve” so it will have to hike rates aggressively, which might kill growth and the bull market. This isn’t going to happen. One sign is that commodity prices and shipping costs have been falling sharply. These are often the leading edge of inflation.\nNext, take a moment to drill down on the current inflation spike. To do so, consider the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s breakdown of the parts of the Core CPI Index into “flexible” categories (quick to change) and “sticky” categories (slow to change). Right now, the flexible components account for most of the headline inflation.\nThese prices are up around 15% in the past year, compared to 3% gains for the “sticky” prices, points out economist Jim Paulsen, the market strategist at Leuthold Group. “While troublesome, the Core CPI Index’s overall rise is due almost entirely to prices that traditionally move around a lot, both up and down,” he says. This suggests the headline inflation rate can reverse and move down quickly from here.\nThat’s what a lot of analysts and bond market investors think. Analysts expect inflation of less than 2% over the next two to 10 years, according to projections tracked by the Atlanta Fed. Meanwhile, the 10-year inflation rate projected by investors in the bond market stands at around 2.6%, notes Paulsen. Not terribly alarming.\nThese projections make sense to me, because companies say their supply chain issues will be fixed by around the middle of next year. Shortages linked to supply chain issues have been a main contributor to price spikes.\nFinally, mobility tracking data from Alphabet,Apple,OpenTable and the Transportation Security Administration show that people in the U.S. have significantly curtailed how much they go out in public. On Nov. 30 and Dec. 1, TSA check-ins were 79%-81% of 2019 levels, compared to 85% to 90% in the prior 10 days, by my calculations. If this reduced mobility slows the economy a little, it will ease fears about inflation and the need for the Fed taking away the punch bowl too quickly.\nInsiders\nIn a mini-replay of March-October of 2020 when the COVID crisis first raged, insiders have once again stepped up to buy market weakness caused by fresh COVID fears. True, insiders are not epidemiologists. But they are not dummies either. They have good networks of contacts and they see the tone of their businesses every day. Their buying is focused on all the right areas like cyclicals, retail, energy and industrials, not defensive names.\nCompanies where insiders have been buying meaningful amounts over the past several days include outdoor and retail names Six Flags Entertainment,American Eagle Outfitters,Nordstrom and American Woodmark; travel names like Delta Air Lines and Playa Hotels & Resorts ; energy names like Exxon Mobil and EOG Resources; and materials names like Cleveland-Cliffs and Orion Engineered Carbons.\nHo, ho, ho!\nTheir buying confirms work by seasonality and trading expert Larry Williams who tells me his work concludes we can expect a “Santa Claus” rally once again, later this month. We’ll see, but since the two main fears are false fears that will till take a little time to more fully recede, this makes sense to me.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLYA":0.9,"OEC":0.9,"SIX":0.9,"DAL":0.9,"EOG":0.9,"AEO":0.9,"AMWD":0.9,"XOM":0.9,"CLF":0.9,"JWN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4020,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":18,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/608713079"}
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