没有人比我更懂韭菜
08-29
不加..他说通胀高但也说美联储看核心pce
沃什“放鹰”，高盛依旧不信“9月加息”、摩根大通称“还是要看8月非农和CPI”
华尔街见闻
紧盯全球金融市场，覆盖股市、外汇、债券、大宗商品等。
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
2
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":601943748318528,"tweetId":"601943748318528","gmtCreate":1787995978976,"gmtModify":1787995981341,"author":{"id":3568099945700012,"idStr":"3568099945700012","authorId":3568099945700012,"authorIdStr":"3568099945700012","name":"没有人比我更懂韭菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15391474b6bf8712ad5c17ea6bad5690","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.09.14","exceedPercentage":"93.36%","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[{"categoryType":1100,"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":0,"redirectLinkValidityTo":9223372036854776000,"sortingWeight":0,"wearable":0}],"fanSize":11,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[{"themeId":"5025dc3c20f14808adebf26909c9e535","categoryId":"2929bb7468f5415f853fd96fb35d7c3b","name":"华尔街见闻","type":2,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/special/finance&rndata={\"themeId\":5025dc3c20f14808adebf26909c9e535}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"紧盯全球金融市场，覆盖股市、外汇、债券、大宗商品等。","image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38b2d7b10c53afe188a3eead61d9c3e4"}],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>不加..他说通胀高但也说美联储看核心pce</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>不加..他说通胀高但也说美联储看核心pce</p></body></html>","text":"不加..他说通胀高但也说美联储看核心pce","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601943748318528","repostId":2663901458,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2663901458","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1787983937,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2663901458?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-29 14:12","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"沃什“放鹰”，高盛依旧不信“9月加息”、摩根大通称“还是要看8月非农和CPI”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2663901458","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摩根大通维持12月加息的基准预测，经济学家Michael Feroli称，决定9月会议结果的\"更重要的消息\"是即将公布的8月非农就业和CPI报告。高盛预计8月核心CPI和核心PCE环比涨幅均在0.2%左右，按此路径FOMC将按兵不动。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美联储主席沃什（Kevin Warsh）首次以主席身份亮相Jackson Hole，<strong>发出了比7月FOMC新闻发布会更为鹰派的信号</strong>：通胀"令人担忧"，美联储当前的"首要焦点应当放在物价上"，若基本通胀趋势不能以"足够的速度"回落至目标，"我们还有工作要做"。</p>\n<p>讲话公布后，<strong>2年期美债收益率跳升约7个基点</strong>——近年来Jackson Hole讲话引发的最大市场反应之一。与此同时，<strong>9</strong><strong>月加息概率从演讲前的约30%攀升至50%以上</strong>。</p>\n<p>不过，华尔街两大行均未跟随市场定价转向。<strong>摩根大通维持12月加息的基准预测</strong>，<strong>经济学家Michael Feroli称，决定9月会议结果的"更重要的消息"是即将公布的8月非农就业和CPI报告。高盛预计8月核心CPI和核心PCE环比涨幅均在0.2%左右，按此路径FOMC将按兵不动。</strong></p>\n<h2><strong>通胀是"首要关切"：基本趋势未见实质改善</strong></h2>\n<p>沃什将演讲的相当篇幅用于通胀。他承认今年夏季的PCE和CPI读数"好于预期"，但话锋一转：<strong>"这并不能告诉我基本趋势已有实质性改善。"</strong></p>\n<p>他拿出一组数据佐证：过去12个月中，<strong>PCE篮子里价格涨幅超过3%的商品和服务占比达到54%</strong>，低于疫情后约77%的高峰，但仍远高于疫情前二十年32%的水平。摩根大通的Feroli认为，相较于沃什此前引用的截尾均值PCE（trimmed-mean PCE），这一指标的选择"不那么投机取巧"——截尾均值已回归正常区间，但<strong>超过3%的占比仍远超金融危机前水平</strong>。高盛则指出，该计算在一定程度上反映了关税效应。</p>\n<p>沃什承认工资增速"温和"，但表示工资"很长时间以来都未能成为未来通胀的可靠指标"——言下之意，温和的工资数据并不构成通胀前景改善的有力证据。</p>\n<h2><strong>纠偏7月两大争议表态</strong></h2>\n<p>沃什在演讲中主动修正了7月FOMC新闻发布会上引发市场不安的两个表述。</p>\n<p>此前他曾对2%通胀目标的未来表示质疑，此次明确声明：<strong>"不应有任何误解——美联储以PCE价格指数衡量的2%物价稳定目标，是一个坚定不移的固定目标。"</strong> 同样，此前他在政策工具选择上态度模糊，此次则确认"短期利率是实现双重使命的首要工具"。摩根大通评价，两项澄清合在一起，信号清晰——更高的通胀将以更高的联邦基金利率来应对。</p>\n<p>演讲中沃什还列出了指导政策的七项原则，重申对货币总量的关注，质疑前瞻指引在常规时期的作用，并在尾声呼吁建立一个"更安静、在沟通上更有目的性的美联储"。摩根大通称，这是自2018年以来篇幅最长的美联储主席Jackson Hole演讲。</p>\n<h2><strong>经济"令人印象深刻"，金融条件"谈不上紧缩"</strong></h2>\n<p>沃什用约四分之一的篇幅谈论经济状况，语气颇为传统。摩根大通称，这部分"听起来像传统技术官僚型的美联储主席讲话"，比如讨论了私人国内最终购买（private domestic final purchases）这类指标。</p>\n<p>沃什对经济的判断是"印象深刻，经济似乎已经走强"：实际消费支出"尽管遭受冲击但依然健康"，企业资本开支"正在快速增长"——<strong>今年超过一半的资本开支增长可归因于AI相关建设</strong>。他引用的私人国内最终购买增速今年以来接近3%，不过高盛提示，该指标目前受到AI投资相关科技品进口的上行扭曲。</p>\n<p>劳动力市场方面，沃什认为"相当稳定""与充分就业一致"，失业率"按历史标准仍处于低位"。他的总体判断是，<strong>"很难将当前广义金融条件描述为紧缩性的"</strong>——这一表态较6月新闻发布会上的态度有了明显转变，当时他将同一问题推给了工作组。</p>\n<h2><strong>高盛、摩根大通：9月加息仍非基准情景</strong></h2>\n<p>沃什在演讲中透露，7月FOMC会议上"我和大多数同事都认为，更明智的做法是等待会议间隔期的新信息，再决定是否有必要调整利率政策"。</p>\n<p>摩根大通维持12月加息预测。Feroli承认，鉴于越来越多美联储官员释放鹰派信号，<strong>提前行动"也并非不合理"</strong>，但关键变量是8月就业和CPI数据。</p>\n<p>高盛的判断更为明确：<strong>9月加息仅在8月CPI和PPI数据超预期走强时才有可能</strong>。该行预计8月核心通胀环比涨幅在0.2%左右，FOMC大概率继续按兵不动。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>沃什“放鹰”，高盛依旧不信“9月加息”、摩根大通称“还是要看8月非农和CPI”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n沃什“放鹰”，高盛依旧不信“9月加息”、摩根大通称“还是要看8月非农和CPI”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-29 14:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>美联储主席沃什（Kevin Warsh）首次以主席身份亮相Jackson Hole，<strong>发出了比7月FOMC新闻发布会更为鹰派的信号</strong>：通胀"令人担忧"，美联储当前的"首要焦点应当放在物价上"，若基本通胀趋势不能以"足够的速度"回落至目标，"我们还有工作要做"。</p>\n<p>讲话公布后，<strong>2年期美债收益率跳升约7个基点</strong>——近年来Jackson Hole讲话引发的最大市场反应之一。与此同时，<strong>9</strong><strong>月加息概率从演讲前的约30%攀升至50%以上</strong>。</p>\n<p>不过，华尔街两大行均未跟随市场定价转向。<strong>摩根大通维持12月加息的基准预测</strong>，<strong>经济学家Michael Feroli称，决定9月会议结果的"更重要的消息"是即将公布的8月非农就业和CPI报告。高盛预计8月核心CPI和核心PCE环比涨幅均在0.2%左右，按此路径FOMC将按兵不动。</strong></p>\n<h2><strong>通胀是"首要关切"：基本趋势未见实质改善</strong></h2>\n<p>沃什将演讲的相当篇幅用于通胀。他承认今年夏季的PCE和CPI读数"好于预期"，但话锋一转：<strong>"这并不能告诉我基本趋势已有实质性改善。"</strong></p>\n<p>他拿出一组数据佐证：过去12个月中，<strong>PCE篮子里价格涨幅超过3%的商品和服务占比达到54%</strong>，低于疫情后约77%的高峰，但仍远高于疫情前二十年32%的水平。摩根大通的Feroli认为，相较于沃什此前引用的截尾均值PCE（trimmed-mean PCE），这一指标的选择"不那么投机取巧"——截尾均值已回归正常区间，但<strong>超过3%的占比仍远超金融危机前水平</strong>。高盛则指出，该计算在一定程度上反映了关税效应。</p>\n<p>沃什承认工资增速"温和"，但表示工资"很长时间以来都未能成为未来通胀的可靠指标"——言下之意，温和的工资数据并不构成通胀前景改善的有力证据。</p>\n<h2><strong>纠偏7月两大争议表态</strong></h2>\n<p>沃什在演讲中主动修正了7月FOMC新闻发布会上引发市场不安的两个表述。</p>\n<p>此前他曾对2%通胀目标的未来表示质疑，此次明确声明：<strong>"不应有任何误解——美联储以PCE价格指数衡量的2%物价稳定目标，是一个坚定不移的固定目标。"</strong> 同样，此前他在政策工具选择上态度模糊，此次则确认"短期利率是实现双重使命的首要工具"。摩根大通评价，两项澄清合在一起，信号清晰——更高的通胀将以更高的联邦基金利率来应对。</p>\n<p>演讲中沃什还列出了指导政策的七项原则，重申对货币总量的关注，质疑前瞻指引在常规时期的作用，并在尾声呼吁建立一个"更安静、在沟通上更有目的性的美联储"。摩根大通称，这是自2018年以来篇幅最长的美联储主席Jackson Hole演讲。</p>\n<h2><strong>经济"令人印象深刻"，金融条件"谈不上紧缩"</strong></h2>\n<p>沃什用约四分之一的篇幅谈论经济状况，语气颇为传统。摩根大通称，这部分"听起来像传统技术官僚型的美联储主席讲话"，比如讨论了私人国内最终购买（private domestic final purchases）这类指标。</p>\n<p>沃什对经济的判断是"印象深刻，经济似乎已经走强"：实际消费支出"尽管遭受冲击但依然健康"，企业资本开支"正在快速增长"——<strong>今年超过一半的资本开支增长可归因于AI相关建设</strong>。他引用的私人国内最终购买增速今年以来接近3%，不过高盛提示，该指标目前受到AI投资相关科技品进口的上行扭曲。</p>\n<p>劳动力市场方面，沃什认为"相当稳定""与充分就业一致"，失业率"按历史标准仍处于低位"。他的总体判断是，<strong>"很难将当前广义金融条件描述为紧缩性的"</strong>——这一表态较6月新闻发布会上的态度有了明显转变，当时他将同一问题推给了工作组。</p>\n<h2><strong>高盛、摩根大通：9月加息仍非基准情景</strong></h2>\n<p>沃什在演讲中透露，7月FOMC会议上"我和大多数同事都认为，更明智的做法是等待会议间隔期的新信息，再决定是否有必要调整利率政策"。</p>\n<p>摩根大通维持12月加息预测。Feroli承认，鉴于越来越多美联储官员释放鹰派信号，<strong>提前行动"也并非不合理"</strong>，但关键变量是8月就业和CPI数据。</p>\n<p>高盛的判断更为明确：<strong>9月加息仅在8月CPI和PPI数据超预期走强时才有可能</strong>。该行预计8月核心通胀环比涨幅在0.2%左右，FOMC大概率继续按兵不动。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1aab396489255e5bfafb79dd5b8a94ef","relate_stocks":{"LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0265550359.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU2023250504.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","LU0976567544.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Income A Mdis SGD-H1","LU1119994496.HKD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (HKD) ACC","FNCL":"Fidelity MSCI Financials Index ETF","IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","IYF":"金融指数ETF-iShares Dow Jones","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1116320737.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A6\" (USD) INC","LU1366192091.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY PLUS \"AM\" (USD) INC","IYG":"iShares U.S. Financial Services ETF","LU0256863902.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"AT\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU0868494708.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) INC","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU2054465674.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC SICAV DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION T \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1116320901.HKD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A6\" (HKD) INC","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0215105999.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU2265009873.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Growth Equity AS SGD-H","JPMO":"JPM期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","LU1032466523.USD":"高盛全球多资产收益组合Acc","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU1261432733.SGD":"Fidelity World A-ACC-SGD","LU0267386448.USD":"FIDELITY FIRST ALL COUNTRY WORLD \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0203347892.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL ACTIVE VALLUE \"A\" (USD) INC AV","LU2592432038.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1144417596.USD":"UBS (LUX) GLOBAL QUALITY DIVIDEND EQUITY \"Q\" (USD) INC","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","XLF":"金融ETF","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","LU1894683264.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU2237443465.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) INC","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","JPM":"摩根大通","LU2023250843.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AT Acc H2-SGD","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1496350171.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED BALANCED \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1496350502.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED DYNAMIC \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0211331839.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL GLB DISCOVERY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU2505996681.GBP":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU2456880835.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU2505996509.AUD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1 Acc SGD-H","LU2552382215.SGD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","LU0942090050.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) INC","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU2381873111.SGD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL EQUITY HIGH INCOME \"A6\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2552382058.USD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2552382132.HKD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU0208291251.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU0210536198.USD":"JPM US GROWTH \"A\" ACC","LU0187121727.USD":"FIDELITY SUSTAINABLE US EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","TRUF":"VanEck Financials TruSector ETF","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","IE000M9KFDE8.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LARGE CAP VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1791807156.HKD":"BGF WORLD FINANCIALS \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU2896262040.SGD":"JPM US GROWTH FUND \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","LU0345769631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1868837300.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"9\" (USD) ACC","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0211326839.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","JPO":"JPM期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","LU0006306889.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" (USD) INC AV","LU1868836914.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"3\" (USD) ACC","LU0211326755.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU0787776722.HKD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","LU0683600562.USD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1868837136.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"8\" (USD) ACC","LU1084165304.USD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0859254822.USD":"T ROWE PRICE GLOBAL VALUE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFXG1179.USD":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC","LU2357627491.SGD":"TRP GLOBAL VALUE EQUITY \"AH\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2168564495.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AI\" (EUR) ACC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1868836757.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"2\" (USD) ACC","LU1670627923.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU1267930490.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"AS\" (SGD) INC A","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU2168564222.USD":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","GSX":"Tradr 2X Long GS Daily ETF","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","LU2106854487.HKD":"ALLIANZ THEMATICA \"AMG\" (HKD) INC","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","IE00BN8TJ469.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU2168564065.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AAZ\" (EUR) ACC","LU1629891620.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG2\" (H2-HKD) INC","LU2168563687.JPY":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AAZ\" (JPYHDG) ACC","LU2746668461.USD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS \"AA\" (USD) ACC","LU0106261372.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" ACC","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","LU2168564149.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"BAZ\" (EUR) ACC","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2430703095.HKD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (HKD) INC","LU0203345920.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLB ACT. VL \"A\" (USD) ACC","VFH":"Vanguard Financials ETF","LU0251132253.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2430703178.SGD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","LU0251131958.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","IXG":"全球金融业ETF-iShares","LU2430703251.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (USD) INC","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU2746668974.SGD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS \"AA\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1917777945.USD":"安联专题基金Cl AT Acc","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","BK4566":"资本集团","LU2023250330.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (USD) INC","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","LU0265550946.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A5\" (USD) INC","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","GS":"高盛","SG9999002232.USD":"Allianz Global High Payout USD","LU2242649171.HKD":"FIDELITY FUNDS GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","LU1804176565.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","TFNS":"T. Rowe Price Financials ETF","LU2462157665.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD) INC","LU2211815571.USD":"ALLIANZ POSITIVE CHANGE \"AT\" (USD) ACC","FTXO":"First Trust Nasdaq Bank ETF","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","BK4207":"综合性银行","IE00BYXW3230.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"AA\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0070302665.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1974910355.USD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS USD","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2417539215.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMF\" (USD) INC","LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","KBWB":"银行ETF-PowerShares","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","LU1894683348.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU1670628061.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) INC","UYG":"两倍做多金融股ETF-ProShares","LU2244417387.USD":"FIDELITY SUSTAINABLE US EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","LU0496365809.HKD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC (Q)","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3780629","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2663901458","content_text":"美联储主席沃什（Kevin Warsh）首次以主席身份亮相Jackson Hole，发出了比7月FOMC新闻发布会更为鹰派的信号：通胀\"令人担忧\"，美联储当前的\"首要焦点应当放在物价上\"，若基本通胀趋势不能以\"足够的速度\"回落至目标，\"我们还有工作要做\"。\n讲话公布后，2年期美债收益率跳升约7个基点——近年来Jackson Hole讲话引发的最大市场反应之一。与此同时，9月加息概率从演讲前的约30%攀升至50%以上。\n不过，华尔街两大行均未跟随市场定价转向。摩根大通维持12月加息的基准预测，经济学家Michael Feroli称，决定9月会议结果的\"更重要的消息\"是即将公布的8月非农就业和CPI报告。高盛预计8月核心CPI和核心PCE环比涨幅均在0.2%左右，按此路径FOMC将按兵不动。\n通胀是\"首要关切\"：基本趋势未见实质改善\n沃什将演讲的相当篇幅用于通胀。他承认今年夏季的PCE和CPI读数\"好于预期\"，但话锋一转：\"这并不能告诉我基本趋势已有实质性改善。\"\n他拿出一组数据佐证：过去12个月中，PCE篮子里价格涨幅超过3%的商品和服务占比达到54%，低于疫情后约77%的高峰，但仍远高于疫情前二十年32%的水平。摩根大通的Feroli认为，相较于沃什此前引用的截尾均值PCE（trimmed-mean PCE），这一指标的选择\"不那么投机取巧\"——截尾均值已回归正常区间，但超过3%的占比仍远超金融危机前水平。高盛则指出，该计算在一定程度上反映了关税效应。\n沃什承认工资增速\"温和\"，但表示工资\"很长时间以来都未能成为未来通胀的可靠指标\"——言下之意，温和的工资数据并不构成通胀前景改善的有力证据。\n纠偏7月两大争议表态\n沃什在演讲中主动修正了7月FOMC新闻发布会上引发市场不安的两个表述。\n此前他曾对2%通胀目标的未来表示质疑，此次明确声明：\"不应有任何误解——美联储以PCE价格指数衡量的2%物价稳定目标，是一个坚定不移的固定目标。\" 同样，此前他在政策工具选择上态度模糊，此次则确认\"短期利率是实现双重使命的首要工具\"。摩根大通评价，两项澄清合在一起，信号清晰——更高的通胀将以更高的联邦基金利率来应对。\n演讲中沃什还列出了指导政策的七项原则，重申对货币总量的关注，质疑前瞻指引在常规时期的作用，并在尾声呼吁建立一个\"更安静、在沟通上更有目的性的美联储\"。摩根大通称，这是自2018年以来篇幅最长的美联储主席Jackson Hole演讲。\n经济\"令人印象深刻\"，金融条件\"谈不上紧缩\"\n沃什用约四分之一的篇幅谈论经济状况，语气颇为传统。摩根大通称，这部分\"听起来像传统技术官僚型的美联储主席讲话\"，比如讨论了私人国内最终购买（private domestic final purchases）这类指标。\n沃什对经济的判断是\"印象深刻，经济似乎已经走强\"：实际消费支出\"尽管遭受冲击但依然健康\"，企业资本开支\"正在快速增长\"——今年超过一半的资本开支增长可归因于AI相关建设。他引用的私人国内最终购买增速今年以来接近3%，不过高盛提示，该指标目前受到AI投资相关科技品进口的上行扭曲。\n劳动力市场方面，沃什认为\"相当稳定\"\"与充分就业一致\"，失业率\"按历史标准仍处于低位\"。他的总体判断是，\"很难将当前广义金融条件描述为紧缩性的\"——这一表态较6月新闻发布会上的态度有了明显转变，当时他将同一问题推给了工作组。\n高盛、摩根大通：9月加息仍非基准情景\n沃什在演讲中透露，7月FOMC会议上\"我和大多数同事都认为，更明智的做法是等待会议间隔期的新信息，再决定是否有必要调整利率政策\"。\n摩根大通维持12月加息预测。Feroli承认，鉴于越来越多美联储官员释放鹰派信号，提前行动\"也并非不合理\"，但关键变量是8月就业和CPI数据。\n高盛的判断更为明确：9月加息仅在8月CPI和PPI数据超预期走强时才有可能。该行预计8月核心通胀环比涨幅在0.2%左右，FOMC大概率继续按兵不动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IYG":0.6,"KBWB":0.6,"FTXO":0.6,"TFNS":0.6,"JPO":0.6,"GS":1.91,"FNCL":0.6,"XLF":0.6,"GSX":0.6,"UYG":0.6,"IYF":0.6,"TRUF":0.6,"VFH":0.6,"JPMO":0.6,"JPM":1.91,"IXG":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":298,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":37,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/601943748318528"}
精彩评论