cky10327
08-06
你也知道市场预期过高
[愤怒]
高盛点评闪迪、西部数据财报：业绩强劲，但市场预期太高
华尔街见闻
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justify;\"><strong>对于投资者而言，短期内需警惕两支股票的情绪面回调风险。高盛还指出，考虑到美光与闪迪在终端市场敞口上的高度重叠，预计闪迪本次财报的负面反应将向美光形成传导，投资者应对美光股价的短期走势保持关注。</strong></p><h2 id=\"5bf3c1d8\">西部数据：毛利率超预期，但指引未能惊喜</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">西部数据截至2026年6月的<strong>第二财季营收</strong>为37.47亿美元，与高盛预测的37.63亿美元及华尔街共识的37.14亿美元基本持平，同比增长43.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>毛利率</strong>54.4%，分别<strong>高于高盛预测的52.4%</strong>和市场共识的51.9%，超出幅度约200至250个基点。<strong>非GAAP每股收益</strong>为3.56美元，<strong>高于高盛预测的3.43美元</strong>及市场共识的3.35美元，超出幅度约4%至6%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>第三财季指引方面</strong>，西部数据给出<strong>营收中值</strong>为41亿美元，<strong>与高盛预测的41.66亿美元及市场共识的40.4亿美元大体相符。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>毛利率指引区间</strong>为55%至56%，<strong>高于高盛预测的54.1%</strong>及市场共识的54.0%，超出约140至148个基点。<strong>非GAAP每股收益指引中值</strong>为4.00美元，<strong>小幅高于高盛的3.94美元</strong>及市场共识的3.80美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛表示，市场预期在进入财报季前已高度乐观。投资者对HDD（机械硬盘）定价持续改善、利润率扩张动能以及大型云计算厂商资本开支驱动的长期需求能见度均抱有较高信心。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>在此背景下，仅与市场预期持平的指引被视为"不够惊喜"。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛维持西部数据12个月目标价650美元，基于23倍市盈率对应正常化每股收益28.00美元测算，较当前股价548.56美元有约18.5%的上行空间，评级维持"中性"。</p><h2 id=\"8bcad097\">闪迪：当季大幅超预期，但前瞻指引令市场失望</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>闪迪第二财季营收</strong>为89.65亿美元，<strong>高于高盛预测的88.41亿美元</strong>和华尔街共识的87.13亿美元，同比增长高达371.6%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>毛利率</strong>84.6%，<strong>与高盛预测的84.3%基本持平</strong>，但高于市场共识的83.6%。<strong>非GAAP每股收益</strong>为39.25美元，<strong>高于高盛预测的38.16美元</strong>及市场共识的35.45美元，超出幅度约3%至11%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>然而，第三财季指引令市场明显失望。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">闪迪给出<strong>营收指引中值</strong>为105.5亿美元，<strong>低于高盛预测的116.53亿美元</strong>和市场共识的111.48亿美元，差距分别达9.5%和5.4%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>毛利率指引中值</strong>为84.0%，<strong>低于高盛预测的84.7%</strong>和市场共识的86.7%，差距约74至267个基点。<strong>非GAAP每股收益指引中值</strong>为45.00美元，<strong>低于高盛预测的49.95美元</strong>，但与市场共识的45.34美元大体相符。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>高盛指出，尽管闪迪股价已从6月高点下跌约40%，在一定程度上消化了部分过高预期，但进入财报季前市场对NAND定价强劲、AI数据中心加速采用以及同业强劲业绩的乐观情绪依然浓厚，使得低于预期的指引仍将导致股价进一步承压。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛维持对闪迪的"买入"评级及12个月目标价2,200美元，基于20倍市盈率对应正常化每股收益110美元测算，较当前股价1,427.62美元有约54.1%的潜在上行空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在行业传导层面，高盛认为闪迪指引低于预期对存储行业整体情绪构成一定拖累。<strong>报告明确指出，鉴于相似的终端市场敞口，预计美光科技将在闪迪财报公布后出现负面反应。</strong></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛点评闪迪、西部数据财报：业绩强劲，但市场预期太高\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-06 10:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>高盛James Schneider团队认为两家公司营收、毛利率及每股收益均超预期，但高盛认为市场预期已过度乐观，平淡指引被解读为负面信号，预计两股财报后承压。此外，高盛警示闪迪低于预期的指引将向美光传导，投资者需关注美光短期走势。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">闪迪与西部数据均交出了强劲的季度成绩单，但高盛认为，过高的市场预期令两家公司的股价难以从亮眼业绩中获益，预计财报公布后两只股票将双双承压下行。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">追风交易台消息，8月5日，高盛James Schneider团队先后发布两份报告点评闪迪和西部数据的最新财报，<strong>当前存储行业面临的核心矛盾并非基本面恶化，而是市场预期已过度领先于现实。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">两家公司均交出了令人印象深刻的季报答卷，营收、毛利率和每股收益均不同程度超出预期。然而，当预期本身已经隐含了"完美执行+持续超预期"的假设，任何回归正常轨道的指引都会被市场解读为负面信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>对于投资者而言，短期内需警惕两支股票的情绪面回调风险。高盛还指出，考虑到美光与闪迪在终端市场敞口上的高度重叠，预计闪迪本次财报的负面反应将向美光形成传导，投资者应对美光股价的短期走势保持关注。</strong></p><h2 id=\"5bf3c1d8\">西部数据：毛利率超预期，但指引未能惊喜</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">西部数据截至2026年6月的<strong>第二财季营收</strong>为37.47亿美元，与高盛预测的37.63亿美元及华尔街共识的37.14亿美元基本持平，同比增长43.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>毛利率</strong>54.4%，分别<strong>高于高盛预测的52.4%</strong>和市场共识的51.9%，超出幅度约200至250个基点。<strong>非GAAP每股收益</strong>为3.56美元，<strong>高于高盛预测的3.43美元</strong>及市场共识的3.35美元，超出幅度约4%至6%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>第三财季指引方面</strong>，西部数据给出<strong>营收中值</strong>为41亿美元，<strong>与高盛预测的41.66亿美元及市场共识的40.4亿美元大体相符。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>毛利率指引区间</strong>为55%至56%，<strong>高于高盛预测的54.1%</strong>及市场共识的54.0%，超出约140至148个基点。<strong>非GAAP每股收益指引中值</strong>为4.00美元，<strong>小幅高于高盛的3.94美元</strong>及市场共识的3.80美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛表示，市场预期在进入财报季前已高度乐观。投资者对HDD（机械硬盘）定价持续改善、利润率扩张动能以及大型云计算厂商资本开支驱动的长期需求能见度均抱有较高信心。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>在此背景下，仅与市场预期持平的指引被视为"不够惊喜"。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛维持西部数据12个月目标价650美元，基于23倍市盈率对应正常化每股收益28.00美元测算，较当前股价548.56美元有约18.5%的上行空间，评级维持"中性"。</p><h2 id=\"8bcad097\">闪迪：当季大幅超预期，但前瞻指引令市场失望</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>闪迪第二财季营收</strong>为89.65亿美元，<strong>高于高盛预测的88.41亿美元</strong>和华尔街共识的87.13亿美元，同比增长高达371.6%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>毛利率</strong>84.6%，<strong>与高盛预测的84.3%基本持平</strong>，但高于市场共识的83.6%。<strong>非GAAP每股收益</strong>为39.25美元，<strong>高于高盛预测的38.16美元</strong>及市场共识的35.45美元，超出幅度约3%至11%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>然而，第三财季指引令市场明显失望。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">闪迪给出<strong>营收指引中值</strong>为105.5亿美元，<strong>低于高盛预测的116.53亿美元</strong>和市场共识的111.48亿美元，差距分别达9.5%和5.4%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>毛利率指引中值</strong>为84.0%，<strong>低于高盛预测的84.7%</strong>和市场共识的86.7%，差距约74至267个基点。<strong>非GAAP每股收益指引中值</strong>为45.00美元，<strong>低于高盛预测的49.95美元</strong>，但与市场共识的45.34美元大体相符。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>高盛指出，尽管闪迪股价已从6月高点下跌约40%，在一定程度上消化了部分过高预期，但进入财报季前市场对NAND定价强劲、AI数据中心加速采用以及同业强劲业绩的乐观情绪依然浓厚，使得低于预期的指引仍将导致股价进一步承压。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛维持对闪迪的"买入"评级及12个月目标价2,200美元，基于20倍市盈率对应正常化每股收益110美元测算，较当前股价1,427.62美元有约54.1%的潜在上行空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在行业传导层面，高盛认为闪迪指引低于预期对存储行业整体情绪构成一定拖累。<strong>报告明确指出，鉴于相似的终端市场敞口，预计美光科技将在闪迪财报公布后出现负面反应。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e87285f5f61644eaba65898e6ccf2bf","relate_stocks":{"IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0162691827.USD":"BGF US BASIC VALUE \"A4\" INC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","LU0240877869.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL SMALL COMPANIES \"A\" ACC","LU1046421795.USD":"富达环球科技A-ACC","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0072461881.USD":"BGF US BASIC VALUE \"A2\" ACC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global 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GLOBAL VALUE PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) INC","FSMD":"Fidelity Small-Mid Multifactor ETF","WDCX":"Tradr 2X Long WDC Daily ETF","LU1804176565.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3778798","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2657570990","content_text":"高盛James Schneider团队认为两家公司营收、毛利率及每股收益均超预期，但高盛认为市场预期已过度乐观，平淡指引被解读为负面信号，预计两股财报后承压。此外，高盛警示闪迪低于预期的指引将向美光传导，投资者需关注美光短期走势。闪迪与西部数据均交出了强劲的季度成绩单，但高盛认为，过高的市场预期令两家公司的股价难以从亮眼业绩中获益，预计财报公布后两只股票将双双承压下行。追风交易台消息，8月5日，高盛James Schneider团队先后发布两份报告点评闪迪和西部数据的最新财报，当前存储行业面临的核心矛盾并非基本面恶化，而是市场预期已过度领先于现实。两家公司均交出了令人印象深刻的季报答卷，营收、毛利率和每股收益均不同程度超出预期。然而，当预期本身已经隐含了\"完美执行+持续超预期\"的假设，任何回归正常轨道的指引都会被市场解读为负面信号。对于投资者而言，短期内需警惕两支股票的情绪面回调风险。高盛还指出，考虑到美光与闪迪在终端市场敞口上的高度重叠，预计闪迪本次财报的负面反应将向美光形成传导，投资者应对美光股价的短期走势保持关注。西部数据：毛利率超预期，但指引未能惊喜西部数据截至2026年6月的第二财季营收为37.47亿美元，与高盛预测的37.63亿美元及华尔街共识的37.14亿美元基本持平，同比增长43.8%。毛利率54.4%，分别高于高盛预测的52.4%和市场共识的51.9%，超出幅度约200至250个基点。非GAAP每股收益为3.56美元，高于高盛预测的3.43美元及市场共识的3.35美元，超出幅度约4%至6%。第三财季指引方面，西部数据给出营收中值为41亿美元，与高盛预测的41.66亿美元及市场共识的40.4亿美元大体相符。毛利率指引区间为55%至56%，高于高盛预测的54.1%及市场共识的54.0%，超出约140至148个基点。非GAAP每股收益指引中值为4.00美元，小幅高于高盛的3.94美元及市场共识的3.80美元。高盛表示，市场预期在进入财报季前已高度乐观。投资者对HDD（机械硬盘）定价持续改善、利润率扩张动能以及大型云计算厂商资本开支驱动的长期需求能见度均抱有较高信心。在此背景下，仅与市场预期持平的指引被视为\"不够惊喜\"。高盛维持西部数据12个月目标价650美元，基于23倍市盈率对应正常化每股收益28.00美元测算，较当前股价548.56美元有约18.5%的上行空间，评级维持\"中性\"。闪迪：当季大幅超预期，但前瞻指引令市场失望闪迪第二财季营收为89.65亿美元，高于高盛预测的88.41亿美元和华尔街共识的87.13亿美元，同比增长高达371.6%。毛利率84.6%，与高盛预测的84.3%基本持平，但高于市场共识的83.6%。非GAAP每股收益为39.25美元，高于高盛预测的38.16美元及市场共识的35.45美元，超出幅度约3%至11%。然而，第三财季指引令市场明显失望。闪迪给出营收指引中值为105.5亿美元，低于高盛预测的116.53亿美元和市场共识的111.48亿美元，差距分别达9.5%和5.4%。毛利率指引中值为84.0%，低于高盛预测的84.7%和市场共识的86.7%，差距约74至267个基点。非GAAP每股收益指引中值为45.00美元，低于高盛预测的49.95美元，但与市场共识的45.34美元大体相符。高盛指出，尽管闪迪股价已从6月高点下跌约40%，在一定程度上消化了部分过高预期，但进入财报季前市场对NAND定价强劲、AI数据中心加速采用以及同业强劲业绩的乐观情绪依然浓厚，使得低于预期的指引仍将导致股价进一步承压。高盛维持对闪迪的\"买入\"评级及12个月目标价2,200美元，基于20倍市盈率对应正常化每股收益110美元测算，较当前股价1,427.62美元有约54.1%的潜在上行空间。在行业传导层面，高盛认为闪迪指引低于预期对存储行业整体情绪构成一定拖累。报告明确指出，鉴于相似的终端市场敞口，预计美光科技将在闪迪财报公布后出现负面反应。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FSMD":0.6,"SNDK":1.97,"CNAV":0.6,"COWG":0.6,"WDC":1.96,"GSX":0.6,"SNXX":0.6,"SNDC":0.6,"SNDG":0.6,"PTF":0.6,"TMSL":0.6,"WDCX":0.6,"QQQG":0.6,"CNEQ":0.6,"FCUS":0.6,"DISK":0.6,"SCHA":0.6,"FDTX":0.6,"CGGO":0.6,"SCHM":0.6,"SNDQ":0.6,"OPTZ":0.6,"SNDU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":269,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":26,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/593809561801648"}
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