你感觉我是傻子不_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

你感觉我是傻子不

精准预测“美股动量股”暴跌后，高盛看到“逢低买入”的迹象

华尔街见闻

紧盯全球金融市场，覆盖股市、外汇、债券、大宗商品等。

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07-05
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src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8e5e9cb92cba301b1f48d38c2efcf9a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"589\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3591278764\" style=\"text-align: left;\">跌幅创近年之最，多重因素叠加放大波动</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛策略师Guillaume Soria在最新报告中表示，本轮动量因子的剧烈回撤并非由单一催化剂触发，而是多重负面条件叠加共振的结果。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">上半年亮眼表现所积累的丰厚浮盈、假日周末前市场流动性明显收缩、因子波动率攀升至五年高位，以及季度末惯常的仓位再平衡压力，共同将高贝塔动量策略的调整幅度推向极端水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">数据显示，动量因子自峰值以来已累计下跌24%，创2023年第一季度以来最大回撤，显著高于历史均值约12%的回撤幅度。从调整周期看，历史均值持续约24天，而当前仅历时10天。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得留意的是，韩国市场在此期间录得外资创纪录净卖出，而本土机构则积极进场买入以对冲外部抛压，折射出<strong>此轮动量抛售已呈现明显的全球联动特征。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18c75a5138e16a4f329e4c3e1c158da2\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"420\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3409245101\" style=\"text-align: left;\">动量因子存战术反弹机会，但去杠杆风险与AI叙事变数犹存</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛交易台对短期前景持谨慎乐观态度。该行指出，<strong>2026年以来，高贝塔动量策略已多次经历两日内跌幅逾10%的冲击，且此后均出现不同程度修复，当前市场走势与此前模式高度一致。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">该行认为，此轮跌幅放大主要受流动性偏低及夏季交易疲软等结构性因素影响，并非基本面趋势发生根本性转变。从历史经验看，逢低买入策略在美联储政策转向宽松（如疫情期间）后的胜率明显提升。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>高盛已捕捉到初步的逢低买入信号，认为动量因子具备战术性反弹基础。</strong>但风险同样不可忽视。尽管遭遇大幅回调，动量因子仓位仍处极端拥挤水平。高盛明确指出，若去杠杆进程持续，该因子潜在最大回撤可能达50%，约为当前跌幅的两倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同时，动量因子年初至今仍录得约27%的正收益，<strong>若AI叙事出现实质性转变，仍有相当规模浮盈可能面临释放压力。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛特别提及，META向云业务转型所引发的市场对其资本支出回报率的质疑，与历次类似担忧对市场情绪造成的冲击路径相似。不过，<strong>该行交易部门目前判断，AI核心叙事尚未发生足以驱动更深度回调的结构性变化。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4138cc83f72bad36d3d9f1f8e8d406b0\" tg-width=\"696\" tg-height=\"514\"/></p><p>风险提示及免责条款</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-05 09:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>高盛高贝塔动量篮子（GSPRHIMO）近两日重挫18%，创2020年来最大跌幅。该策略2026年已多次出现两日跌超10%后修复的走势，当前模式高度相似。高盛提前预警7月回调并认为跌幅已为战术反弹留出空间，但仓位极度拥挤，若去杠杆持续，潜在最大回撤或达现有跌幅两倍。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛高贝塔动量篮子（GSPRHIMO）近两个交易日累计重挫18%，创2020年以来最大两日跌幅。此轮急跌集中映射出流动性收缩、仓位过度集中与季节性疲弱三重压力的共振。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">暴跌发生数小时前，高盛发布“夏季低迷”警示，<strong>明确提示7月动量因子回调风险</strong>。<strong>当前跌幅虽已为短线战术性反弹提供空间——历史经验表明，回调阶段逢低介入动量因子常录得正回。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛交易台同时强调，动量因子仓位依旧高度拥挤。若去杠杆趋势延续，最大潜在回撤幅度或仍为现有跌幅的两倍。整体来看，<strong>市场正处于动量策略仓位出清初期，后续演绎关键在于流动性环境与情绪修复节奏的博弈。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8e5e9cb92cba301b1f48d38c2efcf9a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"589\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3591278764\" style=\"text-align: left;\">跌幅创近年之最，多重因素叠加放大波动</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛策略师Guillaume Soria在最新报告中表示，本轮动量因子的剧烈回撤并非由单一催化剂触发，而是多重负面条件叠加共振的结果。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">上半年亮眼表现所积累的丰厚浮盈、假日周末前市场流动性明显收缩、因子波动率攀升至五年高位，以及季度末惯常的仓位再平衡压力，共同将高贝塔动量策略的调整幅度推向极端水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">数据显示，动量因子自峰值以来已累计下跌24%，创2023年第一季度以来最大回撤，显著高于历史均值约12%的回撤幅度。从调整周期看，历史均值持续约24天，而当前仅历时10天。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得留意的是，韩国市场在此期间录得外资创纪录净卖出，而本土机构则积极进场买入以对冲外部抛压，折射出<strong>此轮动量抛售已呈现明显的全球联动特征。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18c75a5138e16a4f329e4c3e1c158da2\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"420\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3409245101\" style=\"text-align: left;\">动量因子存战术反弹机会，但去杠杆风险与AI叙事变数犹存</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛交易台对短期前景持谨慎乐观态度。该行指出，<strong>2026年以来，高贝塔动量策略已多次经历两日内跌幅逾10%的冲击，且此后均出现不同程度修复，当前市场走势与此前模式高度一致。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">该行认为，此轮跌幅放大主要受流动性偏低及夏季交易疲软等结构性因素影响，并非基本面趋势发生根本性转变。从历史经验看，逢低买入策略在美联储政策转向宽松（如疫情期间）后的胜率明显提升。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>高盛已捕捉到初步的逢低买入信号，认为动量因子具备战术性反弹基础。</strong>但风险同样不可忽视。尽管遭遇大幅回调，动量因子仓位仍处极端拥挤水平。高盛明确指出，若去杠杆进程持续，该因子潜在最大回撤可能达50%，约为当前跌幅的两倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同时，动量因子年初至今仍录得约27%的正收益，<strong>若AI叙事出现实质性转变，仍有相当规模浮盈可能面临释放压力。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛特别提及，META向云业务转型所引发的市场对其资本支出回报率的质疑，与历次类似担忧对市场情绪造成的冲击路径相似。不过，<strong>该行交易部门目前判断，AI核心叙事尚未发生足以驱动更深度回调的结构性变化。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4138cc83f72bad36d3d9f1f8e8d406b0\" tg-width=\"696\" tg-height=\"514\"/></p><p>风险提示及免责条款</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"03086":"华夏纳指","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","09834":"安硕纳指一百—U","LU0868494708.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD 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Soria在最新报告中表示，本轮动量因子的剧烈回撤并非由单一催化剂触发，而是多重负面条件叠加共振的结果。上半年亮眼表现所积累的丰厚浮盈、假日周末前市场流动性明显收缩、因子波动率攀升至五年高位，以及季度末惯常的仓位再平衡压力，共同将高贝塔动量策略的调整幅度推向极端水平。数据显示，动量因子自峰值以来已累计下跌24%，创2023年第一季度以来最大回撤，显著高于历史均值约12%的回撤幅度。从调整周期看，历史均值持续约24天，而当前仅历时10天。值得留意的是，韩国市场在此期间录得外资创纪录净卖出，而本土机构则积极进场买入以对冲外部抛压，折射出此轮动量抛售已呈现明显的全球联动特征。动量因子存战术反弹机会，但去杠杆风险与AI叙事变数犹存高盛交易台对短期前景持谨慎乐观态度。该行指出，2026年以来，高贝塔动量策略已多次经历两日内跌幅逾10%的冲击，且此后均出现不同程度修复，当前市场走势与此前模式高度一致。该行认为，此轮跌幅放大主要受流动性偏低及夏季交易疲软等结构性因素影响，并非基本面趋势发生根本性转变。从历史经验看，逢低买入策略在美联储政策转向宽松（如疫情期间）后的胜率明显提升。高盛已捕捉到初步的逢低买入信号，认为动量因子具备战术性反弹基础。但风险同样不可忽视。尽管遭遇大幅回调，动量因子仓位仍处极端拥挤水平。高盛明确指出，若去杠杆进程持续，该因子潜在最大回撤可能达50%，约为当前跌幅的两倍。同时，动量因子年初至今仍录得约27%的正收益，若AI叙事出现实质性转变，仍有相当规模浮盈可能面临释放压力。高盛特别提及，META向云业务转型所引发的市场对其资本支出回报率的质疑，与历次类似担忧对市场情绪造成的冲击路径相似。不过，该行交易部门目前判断，AI核心叙事尚未发生足以驱动更深度回调的结构性变化。风险提示及免责条款","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"07568":0.6,"NJUL":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"DMAX":0.6,"02834":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"VFMO":1.5,"09086":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SPUU":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"QDEC":0.6,"SMAX":0.6,"QID":0.6,"GPIQ":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"GSX":0.6,"07522":0.6,"03455":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"07261":0.6,"NDX":2,"SPYH":0.6,"SPY":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"AMOM":1.5,"QQQX":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"QMAR":0.6,"07266":0.6,"SH":0.6,"VOO":0.6,"03034":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,"NAPR":0.6,"SAMM":1.5,"SDS":0.6,"TQQY":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"NOCT":0.6,"HCMT":1.5,"03086":0.6,"YSPY":0.6,"HIBL":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,".IXIC":2,"DIA":0.6,".DJI":2,"QQQM":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"09834":0.6,"NJAN":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,".SPX":2,"SPYM":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SPYU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":884,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":16,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":582488914334144,"commentId":"582488914334144","gmtCreate":1783240637050,"gmtModify":1783240642578,"authorId":4193638932436702,"author":{"id":4193638932436702,"idStr":"4193638932436702","authorId":4193638932436702,"name":"美股周先森","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e87f048e7d8919003fd0aede871df1","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-1","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"出道虎友","description":"加入老虎社区500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.03.18","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"wearingSort":0},"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":582429483401448,"objectIdStr":"582429483401448","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"打不过就加入，拥抱存储","text":"打不过就加入，拥抱存储","html":"打不过就加入，拥抱存储","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/582429483401448"}