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特斯拉Q2交付大超预期创历史最强，股价为何一度重挫8%创一年最大跌幅？
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07:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉Q2交付大超预期创历史最强，股价为何一度重挫8%创一年最大跌幅？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2648075680","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"特斯拉二季度交付48万辆，同比大增25%，创历史最强二季度纪录，远超分析师预期（不足40万辆），但股价随即暴跌8.2%，创近一年最大单日跌幅。分析师表示，买预期卖事实再次演绎，同时指出AI与自动驾驶是特斯拉目前估值的核心变量，汽车交付数据被淡化。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>第二季度全球汽车交付量大幅超出市场预期，但股价在消息公布后随即大跌，印证了此前多日上涨已充分消化利好的市场逻辑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">该公司二季度共交付车辆480,126辆，同比增长25%，远超彭博汇总的分析师平均预期不足40万辆的水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管这是特斯拉有史以来最强劲的第二季度表现，但周四股价收跌超7%，创下近一年最大单日跌幅——此前特斯拉股价已连续四个交易日上涨，仅周一一天便上涨约8%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d86fc97a9d415d48f424ac2a7d844f10\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"579\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">芝加哥Karobaar Capital LP首席投资官Haris Khurshid表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"消息真正到来时，市场已没有太多理由继续兴奋，"</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，特斯拉在电动车交付量上仍落后于中国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">比亚迪</a>。后者凭借557,090辆纯电动汽车销量位居全球第一。多位分析师认为，此次交付超预期主要由中国和欧洲市场驱动，美国补贴退出后的需求韧性亦超预期。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">中欧市场发力，驱动交付超预期</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CFRA Research股票分析师Garrett Nelson表示，特斯拉此次交付数据"远强于预期，主要受中国和欧洲市场驱动"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">彭博行业研究分析师Steve Man则指出，数据可能反映出口业务表现强劲。他表示，"美国7500美元购车补贴取消后，需求恢复速度快于预期"，并补充称，"随着补贴结束，美国竞争对手因需求减弱而收缩业务，韩国、日本等市场销售表现较强，可能带动了特斯拉交付量。"</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">William Blair分析师Jed Dorsheimer亦称，这是特斯拉"有一阵没如此大幅超出市场预期"的季度，是汽车业务仍具持续竞争力的积极信号。他估计，北美、欧洲和中国三大市场销量均好于预期，而本季度可能是Model S和Model X最后一个受益于"最后机会销售"效应的季度。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">RBC Capital Markets分析师Tom Narayan同样给予积极评价，认为此次表现"强劲"，并指出美国其他车企重新将重心转向燃油车，以及欧洲燃油价格上涨等因素，均可能为特斯拉带来额外利好。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">车型结构收窄，资本开支大幅扩张</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">目前特斯拉面向零售客户仅提供三款车型，其中Model Y和Model 3几乎贡献了全部销量。Cybertruck的需求持续疲软，若非SpaceX自去年底起批量采购数千辆皮卡，整体交付数字将更为逊色。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">特斯拉已于5月停产Model S轿车和Model X SUV，马斯克将加州弗里蒙特工厂腾出的产能用于生产Optimus人形机器人。虽然特斯拉预计今年开始推进Semi卡车和Cybercab的量产，但前者面向商业客户，后者目前仅处于公开道路测试的初始阶段。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在资本支出方面，特斯拉今年计划支出逾250亿美元，约为去年的三倍，主要投向Optimus机器人和自动驾驶Cybercab等项目。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师Andrew Percoco指出，本季度是特斯拉自2023年第三季度以来汽车业务最高增速。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">储能业务回暖，分析师预期分歧</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">特斯拉储能业务在经历年初低迷后有所复苏。二季度储能产品部署量达13.5吉瓦时，较一季度增长53%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，各方对储能业务的评价存在分歧。William Blair的Dorsheimer指出，储能业务虽有回升，但仍低于该行预期，不过他维持对需求环境的判断，认为Megapack储能电池仍将是AI数据中心和电力基础设施建设的重要组成部分。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">TD Cowen分析师Itay Michaeli亦认为储能业务表现低于市场一致预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">相比之下，摩根士丹利认为储能业务好于预期，并预计储能需求将继续保持稳健。Tom Narayan则强调，受AI推动电力需求增长的结构性利好带动，特斯拉储能业务有望持续受益。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">AI与自动驾驶成为估值核心变量</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管汽车交付超预期，多位分析师认为，市场关注的重心已从交付数字本身转向人工智能、自动驾驶和机器人业务的进展。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Truist分析师William Stein在维持"持有"评级的同时，将目标价从400美元上调至430美元，并将2027年每股收益预测从2.83美元上调至3.09美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但他同时指出，"汽车交付量明显高于市场预期，但特斯拉并未发布AI项目和新车型方面的进展"，并强调"投资者应更加关注AI项目，尤其是FSD智能辅助驾驶，相比汽车交付量，AI的发展对特斯拉长期现金流和股价表现更为重要"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他对自动驾驶领域进展的评价为"积极，但仍不够完美"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Tom Narayan亦认为，随着Model S和Model X于2026年一季度末停产，特斯拉正将战略重点向Robotaxi和人形机器人业务转移，进一步淡化传统汽车制造的地位。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">TD Cowen的Itay Michaeli则表示，特斯拉与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">Rivian</a>的业绩共同支持该行关于"美国电动车市场即将复苏"的判断。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉Q2交付大超预期创历史最强，股价为何一度重挫8%创一年最大跌幅？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉Q2交付大超预期创历史最强，股价为何一度重挫8%创一年最大跌幅？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-03 07:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>第二季度全球汽车交付量大幅超出市场预期，但股价在消息公布后随即大跌，印证了此前多日上涨已充分消化利好的市场逻辑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">该公司二季度共交付车辆480,126辆，同比增长25%，远超彭博汇总的分析师平均预期不足40万辆的水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管这是特斯拉有史以来最强劲的第二季度表现，但周四股价收跌超7%，创下近一年最大单日跌幅——此前特斯拉股价已连续四个交易日上涨，仅周一一天便上涨约8%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d86fc97a9d415d48f424ac2a7d844f10\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"579\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">芝加哥Karobaar Capital LP首席投资官Haris Khurshid表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"消息真正到来时，市场已没有太多理由继续兴奋，"</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，特斯拉在电动车交付量上仍落后于中国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">比亚迪</a>。后者凭借557,090辆纯电动汽车销量位居全球第一。多位分析师认为，此次交付超预期主要由中国和欧洲市场驱动，美国补贴退出后的需求韧性亦超预期。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">中欧市场发力，驱动交付超预期</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CFRA Research股票分析师Garrett Nelson表示，特斯拉此次交付数据"远强于预期，主要受中国和欧洲市场驱动"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">彭博行业研究分析师Steve Man则指出，数据可能反映出口业务表现强劲。他表示，"美国7500美元购车补贴取消后，需求恢复速度快于预期"，并补充称，"随着补贴结束，美国竞争对手因需求减弱而收缩业务，韩国、日本等市场销售表现较强，可能带动了特斯拉交付量。"</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">William Blair分析师Jed Dorsheimer亦称，这是特斯拉"有一阵没如此大幅超出市场预期"的季度，是汽车业务仍具持续竞争力的积极信号。他估计，北美、欧洲和中国三大市场销量均好于预期，而本季度可能是Model S和Model X最后一个受益于"最后机会销售"效应的季度。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">RBC Capital Markets分析师Tom Narayan同样给予积极评价，认为此次表现"强劲"，并指出美国其他车企重新将重心转向燃油车，以及欧洲燃油价格上涨等因素，均可能为特斯拉带来额外利好。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">车型结构收窄，资本开支大幅扩张</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">目前特斯拉面向零售客户仅提供三款车型，其中Model Y和Model 3几乎贡献了全部销量。Cybertruck的需求持续疲软，若非SpaceX自去年底起批量采购数千辆皮卡，整体交付数字将更为逊色。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">特斯拉已于5月停产Model S轿车和Model X SUV，马斯克将加州弗里蒙特工厂腾出的产能用于生产Optimus人形机器人。虽然特斯拉预计今年开始推进Semi卡车和Cybercab的量产，但前者面向商业客户，后者目前仅处于公开道路测试的初始阶段。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在资本支出方面，特斯拉今年计划支出逾250亿美元，约为去年的三倍，主要投向Optimus机器人和自动驾驶Cybercab等项目。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师Andrew Percoco指出，本季度是特斯拉自2023年第三季度以来汽车业务最高增速。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">储能业务回暖，分析师预期分歧</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">特斯拉储能业务在经历年初低迷后有所复苏。二季度储能产品部署量达13.5吉瓦时，较一季度增长53%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，各方对储能业务的评价存在分歧。William Blair的Dorsheimer指出，储能业务虽有回升，但仍低于该行预期，不过他维持对需求环境的判断，认为Megapack储能电池仍将是AI数据中心和电力基础设施建设的重要组成部分。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">TD Cowen分析师Itay Michaeli亦认为储能业务表现低于市场一致预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">相比之下，摩根士丹利认为储能业务好于预期，并预计储能需求将继续保持稳健。Tom Narayan则强调，受AI推动电力需求增长的结构性利好带动，特斯拉储能业务有望持续受益。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">AI与自动驾驶成为估值核心变量</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管汽车交付超预期，多位分析师认为，市场关注的重心已从交付数字本身转向人工智能、自动驾驶和机器人业务的进展。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Truist分析师William Stein在维持"持有"评级的同时，将目标价从400美元上调至430美元，并将2027年每股收益预测从2.83美元上调至3.09美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但他同时指出，"汽车交付量明显高于市场预期，但特斯拉并未发布AI项目和新车型方面的进展"，并强调"投资者应更加关注AI项目，尤其是FSD智能辅助驾驶，相比汽车交付量，AI的发展对特斯拉长期现金流和股价表现更为重要"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他对自动驾驶领域进展的评价为"积极，但仍不够完美"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Tom Narayan亦认为，随着Model S和Model X于2026年一季度末停产，特斯拉正将战略重点向Robotaxi和人形机器人业务转移，进一步淡化传统汽车制造的地位。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">TD Cowen的Itay Michaeli则表示，特斯拉与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">Rivian</a>的业绩共同支持该行关于"美国电动车市场即将复苏"的判断。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f282f2d2bae110ac1a35c5eb2b1e53d5","relate_stocks":{"IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2403377893.USD":"ALLIANZ SELECT INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF 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GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","TSLT":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-T-Rex","LU1267930730.SGD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金AS Acc SGD (CPF)","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","07366":"XI二南特斯","TSLW":"TSLA周配息ETF-Roundhill","LU1366192091.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY PLUS \"AM\" (USD) INC","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","TSLY":"TSLA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","BK4588":"碎股","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3776097","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2648075680","content_text":"特斯拉第二季度全球汽车交付量大幅超出市场预期，但股价在消息公布后随即大跌，印证了此前多日上涨已充分消化利好的市场逻辑。该公司二季度共交付车辆480,126辆，同比增长25%，远超彭博汇总的分析师平均预期不足40万辆的水平。尽管这是特斯拉有史以来最强劲的第二季度表现，但周四股价收跌超7%，创下近一年最大单日跌幅——此前特斯拉股价已连续四个交易日上涨，仅周一一天便上涨约8%。芝加哥Karobaar Capital LP首席投资官Haris Khurshid表示：\"消息真正到来时，市场已没有太多理由继续兴奋，\"与此同时，特斯拉在电动车交付量上仍落后于中国比亚迪。后者凭借557,090辆纯电动汽车销量位居全球第一。多位分析师认为，此次交付超预期主要由中国和欧洲市场驱动，美国补贴退出后的需求韧性亦超预期。中欧市场发力，驱动交付超预期CFRA Research股票分析师Garrett Nelson表示，特斯拉此次交付数据\"远强于预期，主要受中国和欧洲市场驱动\"。彭博行业研究分析师Steve Man则指出，数据可能反映出口业务表现强劲。他表示，\"美国7500美元购车补贴取消后，需求恢复速度快于预期\"，并补充称，\"随着补贴结束，美国竞争对手因需求减弱而收缩业务，韩国、日本等市场销售表现较强，可能带动了特斯拉交付量。\"William Blair分析师Jed Dorsheimer亦称，这是特斯拉\"有一阵没如此大幅超出市场预期\"的季度，是汽车业务仍具持续竞争力的积极信号。他估计，北美、欧洲和中国三大市场销量均好于预期，而本季度可能是Model S和Model X最后一个受益于\"最后机会销售\"效应的季度。RBC Capital Markets分析师Tom Narayan同样给予积极评价，认为此次表现\"强劲\"，并指出美国其他车企重新将重心转向燃油车，以及欧洲燃油价格上涨等因素，均可能为特斯拉带来额外利好。车型结构收窄，资本开支大幅扩张目前特斯拉面向零售客户仅提供三款车型，其中Model Y和Model 3几乎贡献了全部销量。Cybertruck的需求持续疲软，若非SpaceX自去年底起批量采购数千辆皮卡，整体交付数字将更为逊色。特斯拉已于5月停产Model S轿车和Model X SUV，马斯克将加州弗里蒙特工厂腾出的产能用于生产Optimus人形机器人。虽然特斯拉预计今年开始推进Semi卡车和Cybercab的量产，但前者面向商业客户，后者目前仅处于公开道路测试的初始阶段。在资本支出方面，特斯拉今年计划支出逾250亿美元，约为去年的三倍，主要投向Optimus机器人和自动驾驶Cybercab等项目。摩根士丹利分析师Andrew Percoco指出，本季度是特斯拉自2023年第三季度以来汽车业务最高增速。储能业务回暖，分析师预期分歧特斯拉储能业务在经历年初低迷后有所复苏。二季度储能产品部署量达13.5吉瓦时，较一季度增长53%。不过，各方对储能业务的评价存在分歧。William Blair的Dorsheimer指出，储能业务虽有回升，但仍低于该行预期，不过他维持对需求环境的判断，认为Megapack储能电池仍将是AI数据中心和电力基础设施建设的重要组成部分。TD Cowen分析师Itay Michaeli亦认为储能业务表现低于市场一致预期。相比之下，摩根士丹利认为储能业务好于预期，并预计储能需求将继续保持稳健。Tom Narayan则强调，受AI推动电力需求增长的结构性利好带动，特斯拉储能业务有望持续受益。AI与自动驾驶成为估值核心变量尽管汽车交付超预期，多位分析师认为，市场关注的重心已从交付数字本身转向人工智能、自动驾驶和机器人业务的进展。Truist分析师William Stein在维持\"持有\"评级的同时，将目标价从400美元上调至430美元，并将2027年每股收益预测从2.83美元上调至3.09美元。但他同时指出，\"汽车交付量明显高于市场预期，但特斯拉并未发布AI项目和新车型方面的进展\"，并强调\"投资者应更加关注AI项目，尤其是FSD智能辅助驾驶，相比汽车交付量，AI的发展对特斯拉长期现金流和股价表现更为重要\"。他对自动驾驶领域进展的评价为\"积极，但仍不够完美\"。Tom Narayan亦认为，随着Model S和Model X于2026年一季度末停产，特斯拉正将战略重点向Robotaxi和人形机器人业务转移，进一步淡化传统汽车制造的地位。TD Cowen的Itay Michaeli则表示，特斯拉与Rivian的业绩共同支持该行关于\"美国电动车市场即将复苏\"的判断。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TEST":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"07366":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"09766":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"09366":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSLA":1.98}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":93,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":29,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/581645699789848"}
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