畜牧教主马斯克
06-24
两家画饼公司合并，市盈率直接爆炸，市值逼近四万亿，盈利不忍直视
[微笑]
马斯克的终极剧本？Baird：特斯拉与SpaceX合并一年半内落地，概率超80%
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</span> </p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>两家画饼公司合并，市盈率直接爆炸，市值逼近四万亿，盈利不忍直视<span>[微笑] </span> </p></body></html>","text":"两家画饼公司合并，市盈率直接爆炸，市值逼近四万亿，盈利不忍直视[微笑]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/578616154665224","repostId":2645985731,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2645985731","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1782266068,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2645985731?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-24 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src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/95f5c15c1531f834327964bbf26dee7d\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1111\" tg-height=\"765\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">合并叙事提振市场情绪</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SpaceX的上市改变了市场对特斯拉的叙事逻辑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Tigress <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FLPRF\">Financial Partners</a>首席投资官Ivan Feinseth将此次IPO定性为特斯拉的"叙事催化剂"。持有特斯拉股票的Roundhill Financial首席执行官Dave Mazza表示，相比SpaceX上市前，他如今更加确信两家公司可能走向合并。Mazza表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"多年来，特斯拉是持有马斯克溢价的唯一公开途径，但现在情况不同了，SpaceX以更清晰的方式诠释了人工智能和太空的故事，特斯拉股价之所以能保持在400美元上方，是因为收购溢价正在形成。"</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Kallo在研报中写道，除SpaceX合并预期外，特斯拉潜在催化剂还包括Optimus机器人进展、欧盟监管机构对完全自动驾驶的进一步放行、美国Robotaxi业务扩张、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a> Semi商业化落地以及能源业务新产品。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">人工智能构成关键交集，估值落差是最大障碍</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管特斯拉深耕电动汽车与人形机器人，SpaceX专注于火箭、卫星和星际探索，两家公司的业务重叠并不明显，但人工智能正在成为两者的核心纽带。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SpaceX于今年2月收购xAI，并随后与特斯拉联合成立半导体制造合资企业Terafab，进军芯片制造领域。Kallo指出，两家公司在规模化发展上存在共同需求，合并可使双方"从更大规模中共同受益"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">任何合并交易的核心挑战在于定价，而SpaceX估值的剧烈波动使这一问题更为棘手。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">晨星分析师Seth Goldstein在IPO前的研报中指出，SpaceX估值在短短一年内出现跳跃式变化：一年前约为4000亿美元，今年2月收购xAI时对应估值升至约1万亿美元，其中AI业务部分估值约2500亿美元。截至周二收盘，SpaceX市值2.05万亿。Goldstein在研报中写道：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"鉴于SpaceX在IPO前估值飙升，我们怀疑特斯拉股东是否会愿意在SpaceX估值倍数远高于特斯拉的情况下购买其股票。"</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他同时指出，SpaceX现有股东接受大幅折价的可能性也不高，但若股价回落至其公允价值估值63美元附近，双方的接受意愿或将提升。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Goldstein补充称，鉴于马斯克的公司行动往往节奏较快，"如果一年内达成交易，我们也不会感到惊讶"。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">合并若落空，马斯克溢价消失，特斯拉要靠基本面</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在押注合并的乐观预期背后，风险同样不容忽视。Roundhill的Mazza表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"没有达成协议，特斯拉就没有捷径可走，SpaceX现在已经成为获得马斯克溢价的独立途径，特斯拉无法再借用这种热度，它必须在Robotaxi和Optimus项目上取得实际成果，才能证明其股价的合理性。"</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Baird的Kallo预测特斯拉第二季度交付量约为39.29万辆，数据将于7月2日开市前公布；2026年全年交付量预计为168万辆。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>马斯克的终极剧本？Baird：特斯拉与SpaceX合并一年半内落地，概率超80%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n马斯克的终极剧本？Baird：特斯拉与SpaceX合并一年半内落地，概率超80%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-24 09:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">马斯克旗下两大资产的整合预期，正成为支撑特斯拉股价的关键叙事。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SpaceX上周完成史上规模最大的IPO，成为马斯克名下市值最高的资产，令特斯拉股东承压。然而，这场IPO也在华尔街点燃了另一种押注——投资者预期马斯克最终将推动特斯拉与SpaceX合并，打造一个可与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>比肩的科技巨无霸。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这种预期已开始反映在市场定价中。特斯拉股价自SpaceX上市以来保持相对稳定，并于周一重新站上400美元，SpaceX股价周二小幅收涨1%，此前已连续三个交易日回落，市值蒸发6000亿美元，IPO后的狂热情绪持续消退。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Baird分析师Ben Kallo将两家公司合并称为"终极结局"，并预测交易将在12至18个月内落地，发生概率超过80%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/95f5c15c1531f834327964bbf26dee7d\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1111\" tg-height=\"765\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">合并叙事提振市场情绪</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SpaceX的上市改变了市场对特斯拉的叙事逻辑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Tigress <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FLPRF\">Financial Partners</a>首席投资官Ivan Feinseth将此次IPO定性为特斯拉的"叙事催化剂"。持有特斯拉股票的Roundhill Financial首席执行官Dave Mazza表示，相比SpaceX上市前，他如今更加确信两家公司可能走向合并。Mazza表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"多年来，特斯拉是持有马斯克溢价的唯一公开途径，但现在情况不同了，SpaceX以更清晰的方式诠释了人工智能和太空的故事，特斯拉股价之所以能保持在400美元上方，是因为收购溢价正在形成。"</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Kallo在研报中写道，除SpaceX合并预期外，特斯拉潜在催化剂还包括Optimus机器人进展、欧盟监管机构对完全自动驾驶的进一步放行、美国Robotaxi业务扩张、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a> Semi商业化落地以及能源业务新产品。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">人工智能构成关键交集，估值落差是最大障碍</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管特斯拉深耕电动汽车与人形机器人，SpaceX专注于火箭、卫星和星际探索，两家公司的业务重叠并不明显，但人工智能正在成为两者的核心纽带。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SpaceX于今年2月收购xAI，并随后与特斯拉联合成立半导体制造合资企业Terafab，进军芯片制造领域。Kallo指出，两家公司在规模化发展上存在共同需求，合并可使双方"从更大规模中共同受益"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">任何合并交易的核心挑战在于定价，而SpaceX估值的剧烈波动使这一问题更为棘手。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">晨星分析师Seth Goldstein在IPO前的研报中指出，SpaceX估值在短短一年内出现跳跃式变化：一年前约为4000亿美元，今年2月收购xAI时对应估值升至约1万亿美元，其中AI业务部分估值约2500亿美元。截至周二收盘，SpaceX市值2.05万亿。Goldstein在研报中写道：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"鉴于SpaceX在IPO前估值飙升，我们怀疑特斯拉股东是否会愿意在SpaceX估值倍数远高于特斯拉的情况下购买其股票。"</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他同时指出，SpaceX现有股东接受大幅折价的可能性也不高，但若股价回落至其公允价值估值63美元附近，双方的接受意愿或将提升。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Goldstein补充称，鉴于马斯克的公司行动往往节奏较快，"如果一年内达成交易，我们也不会感到惊讶"。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">合并若落空，马斯克溢价消失，特斯拉要靠基本面</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在押注合并的乐观预期背后，风险同样不容忽视。Roundhill的Mazza表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">"没有达成协议，特斯拉就没有捷径可走，SpaceX现在已经成为获得马斯克溢价的独立途径，特斯拉无法再借用这种热度，它必须在Robotaxi和Optimus项目上取得实际成果，才能证明其股价的合理性。"</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Baird的Kallo预测特斯拉第二季度交付量约为39.29万辆，数据将于7月2日开市前公布；2026年全年交付量预计为168万辆。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c3f0edd41b93cda779590a42e8c89ee","relate_stocks":{"TSL":"1.25倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","LU1778281490.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU2168564149.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"BAZ\" (EUR) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4543":"AI","TSLG":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Leverage Shares","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) 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\"AAZ\" (JPYHDG) ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3775343","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2645985731","content_text":"马斯克旗下两大资产的整合预期，正成为支撑特斯拉股价的关键叙事。SpaceX上周完成史上规模最大的IPO，成为马斯克名下市值最高的资产，令特斯拉股东承压。然而，这场IPO也在华尔街点燃了另一种押注——投资者预期马斯克最终将推动特斯拉与SpaceX合并，打造一个可与英伟达、谷歌和苹果比肩的科技巨无霸。这种预期已开始反映在市场定价中。特斯拉股价自SpaceX上市以来保持相对稳定，并于周一重新站上400美元，SpaceX股价周二小幅收涨1%，此前已连续三个交易日回落，市值蒸发6000亿美元，IPO后的狂热情绪持续消退。Baird分析师Ben Kallo将两家公司合并称为\"终极结局\"，并预测交易将在12至18个月内落地，发生概率超过80%。合并叙事提振市场情绪SpaceX的上市改变了市场对特斯拉的叙事逻辑。Tigress Financial Partners首席投资官Ivan Feinseth将此次IPO定性为特斯拉的\"叙事催化剂\"。持有特斯拉股票的Roundhill Financial首席执行官Dave Mazza表示，相比SpaceX上市前，他如今更加确信两家公司可能走向合并。Mazza表示：\"多年来，特斯拉是持有马斯克溢价的唯一公开途径，但现在情况不同了，SpaceX以更清晰的方式诠释了人工智能和太空的故事，特斯拉股价之所以能保持在400美元上方，是因为收购溢价正在形成。\"Kallo在研报中写道，除SpaceX合并预期外，特斯拉潜在催化剂还包括Optimus机器人进展、欧盟监管机构对完全自动驾驶的进一步放行、美国Robotaxi业务扩张、Tesla Semi商业化落地以及能源业务新产品。人工智能构成关键交集，估值落差是最大障碍尽管特斯拉深耕电动汽车与人形机器人，SpaceX专注于火箭、卫星和星际探索，两家公司的业务重叠并不明显，但人工智能正在成为两者的核心纽带。SpaceX于今年2月收购xAI，并随后与特斯拉联合成立半导体制造合资企业Terafab，进军芯片制造领域。Kallo指出，两家公司在规模化发展上存在共同需求，合并可使双方\"从更大规模中共同受益\"。任何合并交易的核心挑战在于定价，而SpaceX估值的剧烈波动使这一问题更为棘手。晨星分析师Seth Goldstein在IPO前的研报中指出，SpaceX估值在短短一年内出现跳跃式变化：一年前约为4000亿美元，今年2月收购xAI时对应估值升至约1万亿美元，其中AI业务部分估值约2500亿美元。截至周二收盘，SpaceX市值2.05万亿。Goldstein在研报中写道：\"鉴于SpaceX在IPO前估值飙升，我们怀疑特斯拉股东是否会愿意在SpaceX估值倍数远高于特斯拉的情况下购买其股票。\"他同时指出，SpaceX现有股东接受大幅折价的可能性也不高，但若股价回落至其公允价值估值63美元附近，双方的接受意愿或将提升。Goldstein补充称，鉴于马斯克的公司行动往往节奏较快，\"如果一年内达成交易，我们也不会感到惊讶\"。合并若落空，马斯克溢价消失，特斯拉要靠基本面在押注合并的乐观预期背后，风险同样不容忽视。Roundhill的Mazza表示：\"没有达成协议，特斯拉就没有捷径可走，SpaceX现在已经成为获得马斯克溢价的独立途径，特斯拉无法再借用这种热度，它必须在Robotaxi和Optimus项目上取得实际成果，才能证明其股价的合理性。\"Baird的Kallo预测特斯拉第二季度交付量约为39.29万辆，数据将于7月2日开市前公布；2026年全年交付量预计为168万辆。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09766":0.6,"09366":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"SPAX":0.6,"TSLA":1.96,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"SPCU":0.6,"07766":0.6,"SNK":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"SPCF":0.6,"SPCM":0.6,"SPCX":2,"SSPC":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"SPAL":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"SPCQ":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"07366":0.6,"SPCG":0.6,"SPCH":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"LOFF":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":224,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":65,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/578616154665224"}
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