Mediator
06-20
机构普遍认为,美联储内部加息阵营明显壮大,未来政策不确定性上升,但在通胀进一步恶化或就业市场持续过热之前,按兵不动仍是最可能路径。
华尔街点评“沃什首秀:立场或许“转鹰”,今年维持利率不变仍是“基本情形”
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20:47","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"华尔街点评“沃什首秀:立场或许“转鹰”,今年维持利率不变仍是“基本情形”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2644088604","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"尽管Warsh首次FOMC会议释放出超预期鹰派信号,但高盛、大摩、汇丰、瑞银和德银均未将加息纳入基准情形。机构普遍认为,美联储内部加息阵营明显壮大,未来政策不确定性上升,但在通胀进一步恶化或就业市场持续过热之前,按兵不动仍是最可能路径。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美联储新主席Kevin Warsh在首次主持的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上,以大幅压缩政策声明、放弃前瞻指引、拒绝提交利率预测点阵等一系列举措,迅速为美联储打上了鲜明的个人印记。</p>\n<p><strong>会议最大的意外来自经济预测摘要(SEP):18位提交预测的委员中,有9人预计今年将至少加息一次,与另外9位预计利率不变或下调的委员形成五五开的格局。</strong></p>\n<p>市场对此反应明显偏鹰:2026年底联邦基金利率的市场定价在声明发布及新闻发布会后合计上行约20个基点,美元走强,美债收益率曲线呈现扭曲平坦化。</p>\n<p>尽管如此,据追风交易台,<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">汇丰</a>、瑞银及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>等主要机构均维持今年利率不变的基准预测。</strong></p>\n<p>机构普遍认为,美联储内部加息阵营明显壮大,<strong>未来政策不确定性上升,但在通胀进一步恶化或就业市场持续过热之前,按兵不动仍是最可能路径。</strong>与此同时,各大行一致上调加息风险评估,认为Warsh推动的政策框架重审和沟通机制改革,正在重塑市场对美联储反应函数的认知。</p>\n<h2>各机构维持按兵不动基准预测,但上调加息风险</h2>\n<p>尽管会议释放出明显的鹰派信号,华尔街大行均未将加息纳入基准情形。</p>\n<p>高盛报告认为,今年加息的风险上升,但基准情形仍是利率不变。</p>\n<p>该行指出,若后续通胀数据令人不安且就业增长保持强劲,多数委员可能支持加息;但该行判断,12位有投票权的委员中,多数仍倾向于维持利率不变,且伊朗协议达成、霍尔木兹海峡重新开放等地缘政治进展若得到确认,将较快消除通胀上行风险中最主要的来源,届时当前点阵预测可能迅速过时。</p>\n<p>摩根士丹利报告维持今年按兵不动的预测,并预计明年3月和6月将开始降息,但强调这是"非常接近的判断"——若油价传导至核心通胀,或劳动力市场进一步收紧,美联储将不会降息。</p>\n<p>汇丰报告则将利率不变的预测延伸至2026年和2027年全年,同时指出鹰派SEP和更强硬的通胀措辞使短端利率进一步上行的风险偏向上方,并认为美元可能已在2026年触底。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">德意志银行</a>报告指出,一个不依赖前瞻指引的美联储可能行动更为灵活,为未来几次会议的加息创造条件;但与此同时,今日鹰派信号叠加透明度下降,可能导致金融条件显著收紧,反而限制近期加息的空间。</p>\n<h2>点阵图五五开,鹰派程度超预期</h2>\n<p>6月FOMC会议以12比0全票通过,将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.50%至3.75%不变。然而,会议的核心看点在于经济预测的大幅鹰派转向。</p>\n<p>此次有9位委员预计2026年将加息,远超该行此前预期的3位。由于Warsh未提交点阵,18份预测中形成9比9的均势——9人预计至少加息一次,其中5人预计加息50个基点或以上,1人预计加息75个基点;8人预计利率不变,1人仍预计降息。</p>\n<p>通胀预测的上调幅度同样显著。FOMC对2026年底PCE通胀的中位预测从2.7%大幅上调至3.6%,核心PCE通胀预测从2.7%上调至3.3%。德意志银行指出,几乎所有委员均认为通胀风险偏向上行。与此同时,2026年实际GDP增速中位预测小幅下调至2.2%,失业率预测则微降至4.3%。</p>\n<p>摩根士丹利报告指出,该行自身对2026年核心PCE通胀的预测为3.0%,明显低于美联储中位数,这也是其维持今年按兵不动预测的重要依据。</p>\n<h2>Warsh新闻发布会:鹰派基调,拒绝前瞻指引</h2>\n<p>Warsh的首次新闻发布会在措辞上明显偏鹰,但刻意回避了任何具体的政策路径指引。</p>\n<p>在通胀问题上,Warsh多次强调美联储"有能力、有承诺实现2%的价格稳定目标",并重申"通胀是一种选择"。据德意志银行报告,他在发布会上提及"价格稳定"达12次之多,政策声明的最后一句话也被简化为:"委员会将实现价格稳定。"</p>\n<p>在劳动力市场方面,Warsh未提及任何下行风险,称就业数据"正朝着好的方向发展",并表示"强劲的生产率驱动的增长不是我们所担忧的,而是我们所欢迎的"。</p>\n<p>据瑞银报告,他还表示当前政策立场对部分领域(如住房)具有一定限制性,但对金融市场而言难以用同样的措辞描述,并将这一"不均衡"现象归因于利率工具与资产负债表工具传导机制的差异。</p>\n<p>在前瞻指引方面,Warsh明确表示已"放弃前瞻指引",并认为"金融市场在对实际数据作出反应时表现最佳,而非对美联储将如何反应数据作出反应"。</p>\n<p>他同时透露,自己未提交点阵预测,并对SEP框架的价值持保留态度。据瑞银报告,他在发布会上使用"工作组"一词多达29次。</p>\n<h2>五大工作组启动,政策框架面临系统性重审</h2>\n<p>Warsh宣布成立五个工作组,涵盖:1)美联储沟通机制;2)资产负债表;3)现有数据来源的使用与依赖;4)转型时代的生产率与就业;5)通胀框架。</p>\n<p>Warsh表示工作组将在"未来几周内"启动,预计大多数工作组将于年底前得出结论,成员将包括美联储内部经济学家及外部专家。</p>\n<p>在沟通机制方面,Warsh对SEP的价值持怀疑态度,并暗示未来新闻发布会的频率可能调整——"新闻发布会是有用的,但召开时你需要确保有重要的事情要说"。摩根士丹利报告指出,若主席本人不认可SEP流程,该框架的可持续性存疑,但在工作组得出结论之前,其他委员仍将继续提交预测。</p>\n<p>在资产负债表方面,汇丰报告指出,政策声明中关于储备管理购买的措辞调整为"在适当时候"进行,暗示对SOMA规模扩张持更审慎态度,并为未来重启缩表留有空间。</p>\n<p>在通胀框架方面,Warsh明确表示,在美联储重新确立实现2%目标的能力之前,不会重新审视2%的通胀目标本身。</p>\n</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街点评“沃什首秀:立场或许“转鹰”,今年维持利率不变仍是“基本情形”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-18 20:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>美联储新主席Kevin Warsh在首次主持的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上,以大幅压缩政策声明、放弃前瞻指引、拒绝提交利率预测点阵等一系列举措,迅速为美联储打上了鲜明的个人印记。</p>\n<p><strong>会议最大的意外来自经济预测摘要(SEP):18位提交预测的委员中,有9人预计今年将至少加息一次,与另外9位预计利率不变或下调的委员形成五五开的格局。</strong></p>\n<p>市场对此反应明显偏鹰:2026年底联邦基金利率的市场定价在声明发布及新闻发布会后合计上行约20个基点,美元走强,美债收益率曲线呈现扭曲平坦化。</p>\n<p>尽管如此,据追风交易台,<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">汇丰</a>、瑞银及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>等主要机构均维持今年利率不变的基准预测。</strong></p>\n<p>机构普遍认为,美联储内部加息阵营明显壮大,<strong>未来政策不确定性上升,但在通胀进一步恶化或就业市场持续过热之前,按兵不动仍是最可能路径。</strong>与此同时,各大行一致上调加息风险评估,认为Warsh推动的政策框架重审和沟通机制改革,正在重塑市场对美联储反应函数的认知。</p>\n<h2>各机构维持按兵不动基准预测,但上调加息风险</h2>\n<p>尽管会议释放出明显的鹰派信号,华尔街大行均未将加息纳入基准情形。</p>\n<p>高盛报告认为,今年加息的风险上升,但基准情形仍是利率不变。</p>\n<p>该行指出,若后续通胀数据令人不安且就业增长保持强劲,多数委员可能支持加息;但该行判断,12位有投票权的委员中,多数仍倾向于维持利率不变,且伊朗协议达成、霍尔木兹海峡重新开放等地缘政治进展若得到确认,将较快消除通胀上行风险中最主要的来源,届时当前点阵预测可能迅速过时。</p>\n<p>摩根士丹利报告维持今年按兵不动的预测,并预计明年3月和6月将开始降息,但强调这是"非常接近的判断"——若油价传导至核心通胀,或劳动力市场进一步收紧,美联储将不会降息。</p>\n<p>汇丰报告则将利率不变的预测延伸至2026年和2027年全年,同时指出鹰派SEP和更强硬的通胀措辞使短端利率进一步上行的风险偏向上方,并认为美元可能已在2026年触底。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">德意志银行</a>报告指出,一个不依赖前瞻指引的美联储可能行动更为灵活,为未来几次会议的加息创造条件;但与此同时,今日鹰派信号叠加透明度下降,可能导致金融条件显著收紧,反而限制近期加息的空间。</p>\n<h2>点阵图五五开,鹰派程度超预期</h2>\n<p>6月FOMC会议以12比0全票通过,将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.50%至3.75%不变。然而,会议的核心看点在于经济预测的大幅鹰派转向。</p>\n<p>此次有9位委员预计2026年将加息,远超该行此前预期的3位。由于Warsh未提交点阵,18份预测中形成9比9的均势——9人预计至少加息一次,其中5人预计加息50个基点或以上,1人预计加息75个基点;8人预计利率不变,1人仍预计降息。</p>\n<p>通胀预测的上调幅度同样显著。FOMC对2026年底PCE通胀的中位预测从2.7%大幅上调至3.6%,核心PCE通胀预测从2.7%上调至3.3%。德意志银行指出,几乎所有委员均认为通胀风险偏向上行。与此同时,2026年实际GDP增速中位预测小幅下调至2.2%,失业率预测则微降至4.3%。</p>\n<p>摩根士丹利报告指出,该行自身对2026年核心PCE通胀的预测为3.0%,明显低于美联储中位数,这也是其维持今年按兵不动预测的重要依据。</p>\n<h2>Warsh新闻发布会:鹰派基调,拒绝前瞻指引</h2>\n<p>Warsh的首次新闻发布会在措辞上明显偏鹰,但刻意回避了任何具体的政策路径指引。</p>\n<p>在通胀问题上,Warsh多次强调美联储"有能力、有承诺实现2%的价格稳定目标",并重申"通胀是一种选择"。据德意志银行报告,他在发布会上提及"价格稳定"达12次之多,政策声明的最后一句话也被简化为:"委员会将实现价格稳定。"</p>\n<p>在劳动力市场方面,Warsh未提及任何下行风险,称就业数据"正朝着好的方向发展",并表示"强劲的生产率驱动的增长不是我们所担忧的,而是我们所欢迎的"。</p>\n<p>据瑞银报告,他还表示当前政策立场对部分领域(如住房)具有一定限制性,但对金融市场而言难以用同样的措辞描述,并将这一"不均衡"现象归因于利率工具与资产负债表工具传导机制的差异。</p>\n<p>在前瞻指引方面,Warsh明确表示已"放弃前瞻指引",并认为"金融市场在对实际数据作出反应时表现最佳,而非对美联储将如何反应数据作出反应"。</p>\n<p>他同时透露,自己未提交点阵预测,并对SEP框架的价值持保留态度。据瑞银报告,他在发布会上使用"工作组"一词多达29次。</p>\n<h2>五大工作组启动,政策框架面临系统性重审</h2>\n<p>Warsh宣布成立五个工作组,涵盖:1)美联储沟通机制;2)资产负债表;3)现有数据来源的使用与依赖;4)转型时代的生产率与就业;5)通胀框架。</p>\n<p>Warsh表示工作组将在"未来几周内"启动,预计大多数工作组将于年底前得出结论,成员将包括美联储内部经济学家及外部专家。</p>\n<p>在沟通机制方面,Warsh对SEP的价值持怀疑态度,并暗示未来新闻发布会的频率可能调整——"新闻发布会是有用的,但召开时你需要确保有重要的事情要说"。摩根士丹利报告指出,若主席本人不认可SEP流程,该框架的可持续性存疑,但在工作组得出结论之前,其他委员仍将继续提交预测。</p>\n<p>在资产负债表方面,汇丰报告指出,政策声明中关于储备管理购买的措辞调整为"在适当时候"进行,暗示对SOMA规模扩张持更审慎态度,并为未来重启缩表留有空间。</p>\n<p>在通胀框架方面,Warsh明确表示,在美联储重新确立实现2%目标的能力之前,不会重新审视2%的通胀目标本身。</p>\n</body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4a0b1fc6027770175963cad649f64b","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1732799900.SGD":"JPMorgan 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Warsh在首次主持的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上,以大幅压缩政策声明、放弃前瞻指引、拒绝提交利率预测点阵等一系列举措,迅速为美联储打上了鲜明的个人印记。\n会议最大的意外来自经济预测摘要(SEP):18位提交预测的委员中,有9人预计今年将至少加息一次,与另外9位预计利率不变或下调的委员形成五五开的格局。\n市场对此反应明显偏鹰:2026年底联邦基金利率的市场定价在声明发布及新闻发布会后合计上行约20个基点,美元走强,美债收益率曲线呈现扭曲平坦化。\n尽管如此,据追风交易台,高盛、摩根士丹利、汇丰、瑞银及德意志银行等主要机构均维持今年利率不变的基准预测。\n机构普遍认为,美联储内部加息阵营明显壮大,未来政策不确定性上升,但在通胀进一步恶化或就业市场持续过热之前,按兵不动仍是最可能路径。与此同时,各大行一致上调加息风险评估,认为Warsh推动的政策框架重审和沟通机制改革,正在重塑市场对美联储反应函数的认知。\n各机构维持按兵不动基准预测,但上调加息风险\n尽管会议释放出明显的鹰派信号,华尔街大行均未将加息纳入基准情形。\n高盛报告认为,今年加息的风险上升,但基准情形仍是利率不变。\n该行指出,若后续通胀数据令人不安且就业增长保持强劲,多数委员可能支持加息;但该行判断,12位有投票权的委员中,多数仍倾向于维持利率不变,且伊朗协议达成、霍尔木兹海峡重新开放等地缘政治进展若得到确认,将较快消除通胀上行风险中最主要的来源,届时当前点阵预测可能迅速过时。\n摩根士丹利报告维持今年按兵不动的预测,并预计明年3月和6月将开始降息,但强调这是\"非常接近的判断\"——若油价传导至核心通胀,或劳动力市场进一步收紧,美联储将不会降息。\n汇丰报告则将利率不变的预测延伸至2026年和2027年全年,同时指出鹰派SEP和更强硬的通胀措辞使短端利率进一步上行的风险偏向上方,并认为美元可能已在2026年触底。\n德意志银行报告指出,一个不依赖前瞻指引的美联储可能行动更为灵活,为未来几次会议的加息创造条件;但与此同时,今日鹰派信号叠加透明度下降,可能导致金融条件显著收紧,反而限制近期加息的空间。\n点阵图五五开,鹰派程度超预期\n6月FOMC会议以12比0全票通过,将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.50%至3.75%不变。然而,会议的核心看点在于经济预测的大幅鹰派转向。\n此次有9位委员预计2026年将加息,远超该行此前预期的3位。由于Warsh未提交点阵,18份预测中形成9比9的均势——9人预计至少加息一次,其中5人预计加息50个基点或以上,1人预计加息75个基点;8人预计利率不变,1人仍预计降息。\n通胀预测的上调幅度同样显著。FOMC对2026年底PCE通胀的中位预测从2.7%大幅上调至3.6%,核心PCE通胀预测从2.7%上调至3.3%。德意志银行指出,几乎所有委员均认为通胀风险偏向上行。与此同时,2026年实际GDP增速中位预测小幅下调至2.2%,失业率预测则微降至4.3%。\n摩根士丹利报告指出,该行自身对2026年核心PCE通胀的预测为3.0%,明显低于美联储中位数,这也是其维持今年按兵不动预测的重要依据。\nWarsh新闻发布会:鹰派基调,拒绝前瞻指引\nWarsh的首次新闻发布会在措辞上明显偏鹰,但刻意回避了任何具体的政策路径指引。\n在通胀问题上,Warsh多次强调美联储\"有能力、有承诺实现2%的价格稳定目标\",并重申\"通胀是一种选择\"。据德意志银行报告,他在发布会上提及\"价格稳定\"达12次之多,政策声明的最后一句话也被简化为:\"委员会将实现价格稳定。\"\n在劳动力市场方面,Warsh未提及任何下行风险,称就业数据\"正朝着好的方向发展\",并表示\"强劲的生产率驱动的增长不是我们所担忧的,而是我们所欢迎的\"。\n据瑞银报告,他还表示当前政策立场对部分领域(如住房)具有一定限制性,但对金融市场而言难以用同样的措辞描述,并将这一\"不均衡\"现象归因于利率工具与资产负债表工具传导机制的差异。\n在前瞻指引方面,Warsh明确表示已\"放弃前瞻指引\",并认为\"金融市场在对实际数据作出反应时表现最佳,而非对美联储将如何反应数据作出反应\"。\n他同时透露,自己未提交点阵预测,并对SEP框架的价值持保留态度。据瑞银报告,他在发布会上使用\"工作组\"一词多达29次。\n五大工作组启动,政策框架面临系统性重审\nWarsh宣布成立五个工作组,涵盖:1)美联储沟通机制;2)资产负债表;3)现有数据来源的使用与依赖;4)转型时代的生产率与就业;5)通胀框架。\nWarsh表示工作组将在\"未来几周内\"启动,预计大多数工作组将于年底前得出结论,成员将包括美联储内部经济学家及外部专家。\n在沟通机制方面,Warsh对SEP的价值持怀疑态度,并暗示未来新闻发布会的频率可能调整——\"新闻发布会是有用的,但召开时你需要确保有重要的事情要说\"。摩根士丹利报告指出,若主席本人不认可SEP流程,该框架的可持续性存疑,但在工作组得出结论之前,其他委员仍将继续提交预测。\n在资产负债表方面,汇丰报告指出,政策声明中关于储备管理购买的措辞调整为\"在适当时候\"进行,暗示对SOMA规模扩张持更审慎态度,并为未来重启缩表留有空间。\n在通胀框架方面,Warsh明确表示,在美联储重新确立实现2%目标的能力之前,不会重新审视2%的通胀目标本身。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TLTI":0.6,"ESmain":2,"GSX":0.6,"SHY":0.6,"TQQQ":2,"IEI":0.6,"NQmain":2,"QQQ":2,".IXIC":2,"TFJL":0.6,"SVXY":0.6,"TLH":0.6,"UVXY":0.6,"TSYW":0.6,"VIXY":2,"IGOV":0.6,"TLTW":0.6,"FLGV":0.6,"BBIB":0.6,"BWX":0.6,"IEF":0.6,"BBLB":0.6,"SHV":0.6,"BWZ":0.6,".DJI":2,"YMmain":2,"TLT":1.61,"SVIX":0.6,"UVIX":0.6,"VIXmain":2,"SQQQ":2,"ISHG":0.6,"BBSB":0.6,"TBJL":0.6,"VIX":2,"VXX":2,"TLTX":0.6,".SPX":2,"SGOV":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":41,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":125,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/577266697977976"}
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