千倍之路
06-16 05:53
$SpaceX(SPCX)$
跟Tesla一样，全靠Elon musk吹牛画饼，公司的真实价值最多只有1/4，也就是说TSLA市值也就3000多亿。
马斯克再“画饼”：SpaceX 2030年营收将破万亿！华尔街开始重新计算这笔账
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
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雾烟暗遮世外天
06-16 08:28
雾烟暗遮世外天
特斯拉三百多倍pe，跟其他巨头比pe估算，三千亿都多了 [捂脸]纯铁粉加持跟机构借势轧空
火金刚
06-16 14:17
火金刚
那你就不买看着就行了啊，你管他值多少钱
1power1
:
不仅不买 我还做空他
巴韭菜
06-16 21:44
巴韭菜
特斯拉真实市值2000亿美刀左右，信徒太多
666lu
06-16 18:49
666lu
人家没牛逼，张嘴就来
gentleGinger
06-16 10:36
gentleGinger
哈哈，赚了就离场了
什么也没有了～
APP内打开
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在 2030 年的收入将超过 4700 亿美元，而摩根士丹利则预计其收入将达到近 3300 亿美元。该行预计，SpaceX的AI业务收入将从2025年的32亿美元飙升至2030年的3220亿美元，集团总营收将从187亿美元增至4740亿美元，其中Starlink贡献约1440亿美元。摩根士丹利此前预测SpaceX到2030年的营收将接近3300亿美元，虽远低于马斯克的目标，但已是当前规模的近18倍。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">埃隆·马斯克周日表示，他的火箭公司 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">SpaceX</a>到 2030 年的收入可能达到 1 万亿美元。 在发表该言论的两天前，该公司刚刚完成了IPO，其市值已超过 2 万亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他在自己的社交媒体平台 X 上回复记者兼财经评论员乔恩·埃利希曼时写道：“如果 2031 年的收入没有超过 1 万亿美元，我会感到惊讶。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d057ab0cea3ba4d45262c4572eaad0be\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"200\" tg-height=\"120\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">上周五，SpaceX 顺理成章地成为了美国第六大公司，这也巩固了马斯克作为全球首位万亿富豪(Trillionaire)的地位。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>(AVGO.US)和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>(AMZN.US)等估值相当的科技巨头相比，该公司的赚钱能力仍然相去甚远。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2025 年，SpaceX 的收入从前一年的 140.2 亿美元跳水式增长至 186.7 亿美元，但公司业绩却由盈转亏，从盈利 7.91 亿美元转为净亏损 49.4 亿美元。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街不再盲目“吃饼”</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">部分华尔街分析师对该公司的增长前景持谨慎态度。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>此前预计 SpaceX 在 2030 年的收入将超过 4700 亿美元，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>则预计其收入将达到近 3300 亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">作为SpaceX IPO的主承销商，高盛在路演期间向潜在投资者展示了一份极为激进的预测。该行预计，SpaceX的AI业务(含xAI)收入将从2025年的32亿美元飙升至2030年的3220亿美元，集团总营收将从187亿美元增至4740亿美元，其中Starlink贡献约1440亿美元。这意味着未来五年营收需增长25倍，年均复合增长率超过90%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根士丹利此前预测SpaceX到2030年的营收将接近3300亿美元，虽远低于马斯克的目标，但已是当前规模的近18倍。而晨星的估值更为保守，仅给出7800亿美元的企业估值，不到SpaceX上市市值的一半。该机构指出，AI业务的长期前景仍面临激烈竞争和盈利不确定性的双重挑战。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">从"现金奶牛"到"营收引擎"</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在万亿营收的宏大叙事中，Starlink卫星互联网服务被寄予厚望，已成为SpaceX最可靠的财务支柱。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2025年，Starlink贡献营收114亿美元，占SpaceX总收入的61%。到2026年第一季度，这一比例已攀升至近三分之二，单季营收达33亿美元，调整后EBITDA利润率维持在60%-70%的高位。截至2026年4月，Starlink全球订阅用户突破1700万，较2024年底的500万增长超过两倍。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">美联航</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">西南航空</a>、夏威夷航空等主流航空公司已采用其机上WiFi服务，品牌估值首次进入Brand Finance全球500强榜单。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Starlink的商业模式具有独特的吸引力：一旦卫星<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STZ\">星座</a>部署完成，边际服务成本极低，订阅收入具有高度可预测性。马斯克曾估算，若Starlink能捕获全球电信市场3%-5%的份额，年收入可达300亿美元——这已是SpaceX火箭发射业务历史峰值的10倍。而SpaceX正计划通过Starship火箭在2027年部署下一代V3卫星，单次可发射50颗，将星座扩容效率提升7倍以上。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而，隐忧同样存在。Starlink在全球定价差异巨大：美国月费约120美元，法国41美元，赞比亚仅24美元。随着用户增长向低GDP国家倾斜，ARPU(每用户平均收入)可能持续承压。2025年用户增长76%但营收增长53%的数据已印证这一趋势。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">“烧钱机器”</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2026年2月，SpaceX与马斯克的人工智能公司xAI完成合并，交易估值约2500亿美元。这一整合被包装为"太空AI基础设施"的宏大叙事——利用Starlink的全球卫星网络进行分布式AI计算，xAI的Grok模型与X平台数据形成闭环。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但财务现实并不乐观。2025年SpaceX的49.4亿美元净亏损中，AI基础设施投入是主要拖累。全年资本支出207亿美元，其中127亿美元流向AI领域(GPU集群、数据中心、工程人才)，远超Starlink的42亿美元和火箭业务的38亿美元。2026年第一季度，AI相关资本支出更是高达77亿美元，占总支出的76%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">批评者将xAI形容为“临床意义上的烧钱机器”。SpaceX持有的1.87万枚比特币(公允价值12.9亿美元)在招股书中被醒目标注，暗示公司正通过多元化投资对冲AI业务的不确定性。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">同等市值巨头的“降维打击”</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">支撑起 2 万亿美元市值，SpaceX 的账面数据在同等体量的传统科技巨头面前，显得十分“寒酸”。从其与亚马逊和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">博通</a>的财务对比中，窥见其巨大的估值悬殊。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同样是 2 万亿左右市值的量级，亚马逊在 2025 年创造了超过 6000 亿美元的营收，是 SpaceX(186.7亿美元)的 32 倍之多。这意味着亚马逊仅需十几天的营收，就相当于 SpaceX 全年的总和。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">亚马逊和博通每年向股东贡献着成百上千亿美元的真金白银净利润。反观 SpaceX，2025 年虽然营收从 140.2 亿美元增长了 33% 至 186.7 亿美元，但其净业绩却“由盈转亏”，从盈利 7.91 亿美元暴跌至净亏损 49.4 亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SpaceX 的巨额亏损并非源于核心业务不赚钱，而是由于其令人咂舌的资本开支。2025 年其总资本支出高达 207 亿美元，其中有近 76% 被砸向了 AI 基础设施建设。2026 年第一季度，其现金及现金等价物在短短三个月内从 247 亿美元骤降至 159 亿美元，逼得公司在今年 3 月不得不申请了一笔 200 亿美元的过桥贷款。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">马斯克在"卖"什么？</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">支撑SpaceX超高估值的，并非当前财务数据，而是一套关于人类未来的"期权叙事"。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">马斯克设定的“2031年万亿营收”是一个极具煽动性的目标，它将迫使公司在未来几年内不断证明其商业化落地的速度。然而，理性的观察者应当警惕估值与基本面的背离。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在接下来的24个月里，市场将不再满足于听故事，而是会用严苛的眼光审视每一个数据点：星舰能否实现真正的全流量复用？星链何时能实现持续性盈利？以及，那笔高达千亿美元的AI基础设施订单究竟何时落地?</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">唯一可以确定的是，通往1万亿美元的道路，绝不会像马斯克发推文说的那样轻松。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>马斯克再“画饼”：SpaceX 2030年营收将破万亿！华尔街开始重新计算这笔账</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n马斯克再“画饼”：SpaceX 2030年营收将破万亿！华尔街开始重新计算这笔账\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-06-15 17:02 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1454385.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>埃隆·马斯克周日表示，他的火箭公司 SpaceX到 2030 年的收入可能达到 1 万亿美元。 在发表该言论的两天前，该公司刚刚完成了IPO，其市值已超过 2 万亿美元。他在自己的社交媒体平台 X 上回复记者兼财经评论员乔恩·埃利希曼时写道：“如果 2031 年的收入没有超过 1 万亿美元，我会感到惊讶。”上周五，SpaceX 顺理成章地成为了美国第六大公司，这也巩固了马斯克作为全球首位万亿富豪(...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1454385.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/204deea95548090ff5aad7c01fcebb6f","relate_stocks":{"BK4089":"非传统电信运营商","LOFF":"2倍做多SpaceX ETF-Direxion","SPCQ":"2倍做空SpaceX ETF-Defiance","SPCH":"2倍做多SpaceX ETF-leverage shares","SPCF":"2倍做多SpaceX ETF-ProShares","SPAX":"2倍做多SPACEX ETF-T-REX","SPCX":"SPAC and New Issue ETF","SPCG":"2倍做空SpaceX ETF-Tradr"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1454385.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2643279772","content_text":"埃隆·马斯克周日表示，他的火箭公司 SpaceX到 2030 年的收入可能达到 1 万亿美元。 在发表该言论的两天前，该公司刚刚完成了IPO，其市值已超过 2 万亿美元。他在自己的社交媒体平台 X 上回复记者兼财经评论员乔恩·埃利希曼时写道：“如果 2031 年的收入没有超过 1 万亿美元，我会感到惊讶。”上周五，SpaceX 顺理成章地成为了美国第六大公司，这也巩固了马斯克作为全球首位万亿富豪(Trillionaire)的地位。然而，与博通(AVGO.US)和亚马逊(AMZN.US)等估值相当的科技巨头相比，该公司的赚钱能力仍然相去甚远。2025 年，SpaceX 的收入从前一年的 140.2 亿美元跳水式增长至 186.7 亿美元，但公司业绩却由盈转亏，从盈利 7.91 亿美元转为净亏损 49.4 亿美元。华尔街不再盲目“吃饼”部分华尔街分析师对该公司的增长前景持谨慎态度。高盛此前预计 SpaceX 在 2030 年的收入将超过 4700 亿美元，而摩根士丹利则预计其收入将达到近 3300 亿美元。作为SpaceX IPO的主承销商，高盛在路演期间向潜在投资者展示了一份极为激进的预测。该行预计，SpaceX的AI业务(含xAI)收入将从2025年的32亿美元飙升至2030年的3220亿美元，集团总营收将从187亿美元增至4740亿美元，其中Starlink贡献约1440亿美元。这意味着未来五年营收需增长25倍，年均复合增长率超过90%。摩根士丹利此前预测SpaceX到2030年的营收将接近3300亿美元，虽远低于马斯克的目标，但已是当前规模的近18倍。而晨星的估值更为保守，仅给出7800亿美元的企业估值，不到SpaceX上市市值的一半。该机构指出，AI业务的长期前景仍面临激烈竞争和盈利不确定性的双重挑战。从\"现金奶牛\"到\"营收引擎\"在万亿营收的宏大叙事中，Starlink卫星互联网服务被寄予厚望，已成为SpaceX最可靠的财务支柱。2025年，Starlink贡献营收114亿美元，占SpaceX总收入的61%。到2026年第一季度，这一比例已攀升至近三分之二，单季营收达33亿美元，调整后EBITDA利润率维持在60%-70%的高位。截至2026年4月，Starlink全球订阅用户突破1700万，较2024年底的500万增长超过两倍。美联航、西南航空、夏威夷航空等主流航空公司已采用其机上WiFi服务，品牌估值首次进入Brand Finance全球500强榜单。Starlink的商业模式具有独特的吸引力：一旦卫星星座部署完成，边际服务成本极低，订阅收入具有高度可预测性。马斯克曾估算，若Starlink能捕获全球电信市场3%-5%的份额，年收入可达300亿美元——这已是SpaceX火箭发射业务历史峰值的10倍。而SpaceX正计划通过Starship火箭在2027年部署下一代V3卫星，单次可发射50颗，将星座扩容效率提升7倍以上。然而，隐忧同样存在。Starlink在全球定价差异巨大：美国月费约120美元，法国41美元，赞比亚仅24美元。随着用户增长向低GDP国家倾斜，ARPU(每用户平均收入)可能持续承压。2025年用户增长76%但营收增长53%的数据已印证这一趋势。“烧钱机器”2026年2月，SpaceX与马斯克的人工智能公司xAI完成合并，交易估值约2500亿美元。这一整合被包装为\"太空AI基础设施\"的宏大叙事——利用Starlink的全球卫星网络进行分布式AI计算，xAI的Grok模型与X平台数据形成闭环。但财务现实并不乐观。2025年SpaceX的49.4亿美元净亏损中，AI基础设施投入是主要拖累。全年资本支出207亿美元，其中127亿美元流向AI领域(GPU集群、数据中心、工程人才)，远超Starlink的42亿美元和火箭业务的38亿美元。2026年第一季度，AI相关资本支出更是高达77亿美元，占总支出的76%。批评者将xAI形容为“临床意义上的烧钱机器”。SpaceX持有的1.87万枚比特币(公允价值12.9亿美元)在招股书中被醒目标注，暗示公司正通过多元化投资对冲AI业务的不确定性。同等市值巨头的“降维打击”支撑起 2 万亿美元市值，SpaceX 的账面数据在同等体量的传统科技巨头面前，显得十分“寒酸”。从其与亚马逊和博通的财务对比中，窥见其巨大的估值悬殊。同样是 2 万亿左右市值的量级，亚马逊在 2025 年创造了超过 6000 亿美元的营收，是 SpaceX(186.7亿美元)的 32 倍之多。这意味着亚马逊仅需十几天的营收，就相当于 SpaceX 全年的总和。亚马逊和博通每年向股东贡献着成百上千亿美元的真金白银净利润。反观 SpaceX，2025 年虽然营收从 140.2 亿美元增长了 33% 至 186.7 亿美元，但其净业绩却“由盈转亏”，从盈利 7.91 亿美元暴跌至净亏损 49.4 亿美元。SpaceX 的巨额亏损并非源于核心业务不赚钱，而是由于其令人咂舌的资本开支。2025 年其总资本支出高达 207 亿美元，其中有近 76% 被砸向了 AI 基础设施建设。2026 年第一季度，其现金及现金等价物在短短三个月内从 247 亿美元骤降至 159 亿美元，逼得公司在今年 3 月不得不申请了一笔 200 亿美元的过桥贷款。马斯克在\"卖\"什么？支撑SpaceX超高估值的，并非当前财务数据，而是一套关于人类未来的\"期权叙事\"。马斯克设定的“2031年万亿营收”是一个极具煽动性的目标，它将迫使公司在未来几年内不断证明其商业化落地的速度。然而，理性的观察者应当警惕估值与基本面的背离。在接下来的24个月里，市场将不再满足于听故事，而是会用严苛的眼光审视每一个数据点：星舰能否实现真正的全流量复用？星链何时能实现持续性盈利？以及，那笔高达千亿美元的AI基础设施订单究竟何时落地?唯一可以确定的是，通往1万亿美元的道路，绝不会像马斯克发推文说的那样轻松。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCH":0.6,"SPCQ":0.6,"SPCF":0.6,"SPCG":0.6,"SPCX":2.1,"SPAX":0.6,"LOFF":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8050,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["SPCX"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":102,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":575716338485880,"commentId":"575716338485880","gmtCreate":1781569703912,"gmtModify":1781574183481,"authorId":4118191900217960,"author":{"id":4118191900217960,"idStr":"4118191900217960","authorId":4118191900217960,"name":"雾烟暗遮世外天","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a865e74cd1eeef99face68ff91b503b","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.10.04","exceedPercentage":"93.50%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"wearingSort":0},"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":0,"redirectLinkValidityTo":9223372036854776000}]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":575678567899264,"objectIdStr":"575678567899264","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"特斯拉三百多倍pe，跟其他巨头比pe估算，三千亿都多了 [捂脸]纯铁粉加持跟机构借势轧空","text":"特斯拉三百多倍pe，跟其他巨头比pe估算，三千亿都多了 [捂脸]纯铁粉加持跟机构借势轧空","html":"特斯拉三百多倍pe，跟其他巨头比pe估算，三千亿都多了 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