黑眼圈太重了邓文
05-26 14:32
10Y和收益率曲线都老演员了,多少次拿来打压市场走势了,
美债收益率曲线趋平,市场押注沃什领导下利率将"更高更久"
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11:59","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"美债收益率曲线趋平,市场押注沃什领导下利率将\"更高更久\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2638444567","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美债收益率曲线趋平,短端承压明显,5年期与30年期美债收益率之差收窄至2025年5月来最低。摩根大通、高盛等机构亦警示利率将\"更高更久\",结构性财政压力与地缘风险或推动10年期收益率最终迈向5%乃至更高。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美伊战争引发的通胀冲击,正在重塑市场对美联储政策路径的预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">周二盘中,5年期与30年期美债收益率之差一度收窄至约81个基点,创2025年5月以来最低。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时,交易员目前定价显示,美联储几乎确定将于12月前启动加息,这与美伊冲突爆发前市场预期的两次降息形成鲜明反转。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1c6fa1a8779304d0c71c497174fecc91\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"623\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">投资者日益认为,美伊战争引发自2023年以来最大规模的通胀冲击,迫使多位官员放弃此前的宽松立场,美联储今年将不得不收紧货币政策。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管周一美伊和谈预期升温,油价随之回落。然而,迪拜经纪公司全球宏观顾问Steven Major表示:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">债券市场需要担忧的事情太多,这一地区的冲突只是故事的一部分。债券市场远未稳定,正变得有些难以预测,这也解释了为何收益率维持在高位。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Brandywine的Chen也强调,推动债市承压的结构性因素,并不会因地缘局势短暂缓和而消散,投资者需要对持续的高利率环境保持警惕。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">曲线趋平背后:短端承压,长端相对稳定</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">收益率曲线趋平的核心逻辑在于短端与长端的分化走势。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">5年期美债收益率上周攀升至年内高点4.35%,周五收于4.26%;基准10年期收益率报4.56%;而30年期收益率则从年内约5.20%的峰值回落至5.06%,部分原因是油价近期有所回落。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8fff7c2da00400936d4c51e5ec5c585a\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"619\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">(上周美债主要期限收益率走势)</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2年期与30年期收益率之差同样收窄至7月以来最低。野村证券高级策略师Andrew Ticehurst表示:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">数据面与政治面都在减轻降息压力,短端收益率持续上行重新定价。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他补充说,特朗普关于让沃什"独立行事"的表态同样起到了推波助澜的作用。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Markets Live策略师Garfield Reynolds指出,<strong>全球通胀加速意味着美联储及其他主要央行将维持鹰派立场,对短端构成压制,而随着全球经济增长前景遭受严重打击的迹象逐渐显现,曲线长端则存在相对支撑。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">官员与华尔街:加息已非小概率事件</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">政策官员的措辞转变正在强化市场对加息的定价。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街见闻提及,5月22日上周五,美联储理事沃勒发表鹰派讲话,明确表示通胀是未来政策决策的"驱动力",称未来加息与降息“五五开”,这一表态直接推动加息预期急剧升温。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街主流机构也在同步调整判断。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>首席执行官戴蒙警告,利率可能进一步大幅上行。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据彭博报道,ING、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>及巴克莱的策略师均认为,<strong>即便油价驱动的通胀压力有所缓解,长端收益率的涨幅也难以完全回落,大规模公共债务负担以及AI投资热潮带来的结构性影响将持续发酵。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Brandywine投资组合经理Tracy Chen在接受彭博电视采访时表示,所谓"债券义警"正在警告各央行已落后于曲线。她估计:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">即便油价有所缓解,我也不认为发达市场债券的结构性抛售就此终止。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>她认为,10年期收益率最终可能升至5%,部分期限甚至可能在一段时间内触及5.5%至6%</strong>,驱动因素包括宽松财政政策、国防及AI基础设施的大规模支出、人口老龄化以及地缘政治动荡。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美债收益率曲线趋平,市场押注沃什领导下利率将\"更高更久\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美债收益率曲线趋平,市场押注沃什领导下利率将\"更高更久\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-26 11:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美伊战争引发的通胀冲击,正在重塑市场对美联储政策路径的预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">周二盘中,5年期与30年期美债收益率之差一度收窄至约81个基点,创2025年5月以来最低。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时,交易员目前定价显示,美联储几乎确定将于12月前启动加息,这与美伊冲突爆发前市场预期的两次降息形成鲜明反转。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1c6fa1a8779304d0c71c497174fecc91\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"623\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">投资者日益认为,美伊战争引发自2023年以来最大规模的通胀冲击,迫使多位官员放弃此前的宽松立场,美联储今年将不得不收紧货币政策。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管周一美伊和谈预期升温,油价随之回落。然而,迪拜经纪公司全球宏观顾问Steven Major表示:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">债券市场需要担忧的事情太多,这一地区的冲突只是故事的一部分。债券市场远未稳定,正变得有些难以预测,这也解释了为何收益率维持在高位。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Brandywine的Chen也强调,推动债市承压的结构性因素,并不会因地缘局势短暂缓和而消散,投资者需要对持续的高利率环境保持警惕。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">曲线趋平背后:短端承压,长端相对稳定</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">收益率曲线趋平的核心逻辑在于短端与长端的分化走势。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">5年期美债收益率上周攀升至年内高点4.35%,周五收于4.26%;基准10年期收益率报4.56%;而30年期收益率则从年内约5.20%的峰值回落至5.06%,部分原因是油价近期有所回落。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8fff7c2da00400936d4c51e5ec5c585a\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"619\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">(上周美债主要期限收益率走势)</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2年期与30年期收益率之差同样收窄至7月以来最低。野村证券高级策略师Andrew Ticehurst表示:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">数据面与政治面都在减轻降息压力,短端收益率持续上行重新定价。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他补充说,特朗普关于让沃什"独立行事"的表态同样起到了推波助澜的作用。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Markets Live策略师Garfield Reynolds指出,<strong>全球通胀加速意味着美联储及其他主要央行将维持鹰派立场,对短端构成压制,而随着全球经济增长前景遭受严重打击的迹象逐渐显现,曲线长端则存在相对支撑。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">官员与华尔街:加息已非小概率事件</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">政策官员的措辞转变正在强化市场对加息的定价。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街见闻提及,5月22日上周五,美联储理事沃勒发表鹰派讲话,明确表示通胀是未来政策决策的"驱动力",称未来加息与降息“五五开”,这一表态直接推动加息预期急剧升温。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街主流机构也在同步调整判断。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>首席执行官戴蒙警告,利率可能进一步大幅上行。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据彭博报道,ING、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>及巴克莱的策略师均认为,<strong>即便油价驱动的通胀压力有所缓解,长端收益率的涨幅也难以完全回落,大规模公共债务负担以及AI投资热潮带来的结构性影响将持续发酵。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Brandywine投资组合经理Tracy Chen在接受彭博电视采访时表示,所谓"债券义警"正在警告各央行已落后于曲线。她估计:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">即便油价有所缓解,我也不认为发达市场债券的结构性抛售就此终止。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>她认为,10年期收益率最终可能升至5%,部分期限甚至可能在一段时间内触及5.5%至6%</strong>,驱动因素包括宽松财政政策、国防及AI基础设施的大规模支出、人口老龄化以及地缘政治动荡。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb7789abffef4e8a7ef6093738b6ad06","relate_stocks":{"LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1670628061.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0496365809.HKD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC (Q)","LU1894683348.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) INC","BK4566":"资本集团","LU0265550359.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A2\" (USD) 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