黑眼圈太重了邓文
05-26 14:32
10Y和收益率曲线都老演员了，多少次拿来打压市场走势了，
美债收益率曲线趋平，市场押注沃什领导下利率将"更高更久"
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11:59","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"美债收益率曲线趋平，市场押注沃什领导下利率将\"更高更久\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2638444567","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美债收益率曲线趋平，短端承压明显，5年期与30年期美债收益率之差收窄至2025年5月来最低。摩根大通、高盛等机构亦警示利率将\"更高更久\"，结构性财政压力与地缘风险或推动10年期收益率最终迈向5%乃至更高。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美伊战争引发的通胀冲击，正在重塑市场对美联储政策路径的预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">周二盘中，5年期与30年期美债收益率之差一度收窄至约81个基点，创2025年5月以来最低。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，交易员目前定价显示，美联储几乎确定将于12月前启动加息，这与美伊冲突爆发前市场预期的两次降息形成鲜明反转。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1c6fa1a8779304d0c71c497174fecc91\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"623\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">投资者日益认为，美伊战争引发自2023年以来最大规模的通胀冲击，迫使多位官员放弃此前的宽松立场，美联储今年将不得不收紧货币政策。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管周一美伊和谈预期升温，油价随之回落。然而，迪拜经纪公司全球宏观顾问Steven Major表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">债券市场需要担忧的事情太多，这一地区的冲突只是故事的一部分。债券市场远未稳定，正变得有些难以预测，这也解释了为何收益率维持在高位。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Brandywine的Chen也强调，推动债市承压的结构性因素，并不会因地缘局势短暂缓和而消散，投资者需要对持续的高利率环境保持警惕。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">曲线趋平背后：短端承压，长端相对稳定</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">收益率曲线趋平的核心逻辑在于短端与长端的分化走势。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">5年期美债收益率上周攀升至年内高点4.35%，周五收于4.26%；基准10年期收益率报4.56%；而30年期收益率则从年内约5.20%的峰值回落至5.06%，部分原因是油价近期有所回落。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8fff7c2da00400936d4c51e5ec5c585a\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"619\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">（上周美债主要期限收益率走势）</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2年期与30年期收益率之差同样收窄至7月以来最低。野村证券高级策略师Andrew Ticehurst表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">数据面与政治面都在减轻降息压力，短端收益率持续上行重新定价。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他补充说，特朗普关于让沃什"独立行事"的表态同样起到了推波助澜的作用。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Markets Live策略师Garfield Reynolds指出，<strong>全球通胀加速意味着美联储及其他主要央行将维持鹰派立场，对短端构成压制，而随着全球经济增长前景遭受严重打击的迹象逐渐显现，曲线长端则存在相对支撑。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">官员与华尔街：加息已非小概率事件</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">政策官员的措辞转变正在强化市场对加息的定价。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街见闻提及，5月22日上周五，美联储理事沃勒发表鹰派讲话，明确表示通胀是未来政策决策的"驱动力"，称未来加息与降息“五五开”，这一表态直接推动加息预期急剧升温。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街主流机构也在同步调整判断。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>首席执行官戴蒙警告，利率可能进一步大幅上行。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据彭博报道，ING、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>及巴克莱的策略师均认为，<strong>即便油价驱动的通胀压力有所缓解，长端收益率的涨幅也难以完全回落，大规模公共债务负担以及AI投资热潮带来的结构性影响将持续发酵。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Brandywine投资组合经理Tracy Chen在接受彭博电视采访时表示，所谓"债券义警"正在警告各央行已落后于曲线。她估计：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">即便油价有所缓解，我也不认为发达市场债券的结构性抛售就此终止。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>她认为，10年期收益率最终可能升至5%，部分期限甚至可能在一段时间内触及5.5%至6%</strong>，驱动因素包括宽松财政政策、国防及AI基础设施的大规模支出、人口老龄化以及地缘政治动荡。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美债收益率曲线趋平，市场押注沃什领导下利率将\"更高更久\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美债收益率曲线趋平，市场押注沃什领导下利率将\"更高更久\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-26 11:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美伊战争引发的通胀冲击，正在重塑市场对美联储政策路径的预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">周二盘中，5年期与30年期美债收益率之差一度收窄至约81个基点，创2025年5月以来最低。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，交易员目前定价显示，美联储几乎确定将于12月前启动加息，这与美伊冲突爆发前市场预期的两次降息形成鲜明反转。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1c6fa1a8779304d0c71c497174fecc91\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"623\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">投资者日益认为，美伊战争引发自2023年以来最大规模的通胀冲击，迫使多位官员放弃此前的宽松立场，美联储今年将不得不收紧货币政策。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管周一美伊和谈预期升温，油价随之回落。然而，迪拜经纪公司全球宏观顾问Steven Major表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">债券市场需要担忧的事情太多，这一地区的冲突只是故事的一部分。债券市场远未稳定，正变得有些难以预测，这也解释了为何收益率维持在高位。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Brandywine的Chen也强调，推动债市承压的结构性因素，并不会因地缘局势短暂缓和而消散，投资者需要对持续的高利率环境保持警惕。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">曲线趋平背后：短端承压，长端相对稳定</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">收益率曲线趋平的核心逻辑在于短端与长端的分化走势。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">5年期美债收益率上周攀升至年内高点4.35%，周五收于4.26%；基准10年期收益率报4.56%；而30年期收益率则从年内约5.20%的峰值回落至5.06%，部分原因是油价近期有所回落。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8fff7c2da00400936d4c51e5ec5c585a\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"619\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">（上周美债主要期限收益率走势）</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2年期与30年期收益率之差同样收窄至7月以来最低。野村证券高级策略师Andrew Ticehurst表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">数据面与政治面都在减轻降息压力，短端收益率持续上行重新定价。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他补充说，特朗普关于让沃什"独立行事"的表态同样起到了推波助澜的作用。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Markets Live策略师Garfield Reynolds指出，<strong>全球通胀加速意味着美联储及其他主要央行将维持鹰派立场，对短端构成压制，而随着全球经济增长前景遭受严重打击的迹象逐渐显现，曲线长端则存在相对支撑。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">官员与华尔街：加息已非小概率事件</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">政策官员的措辞转变正在强化市场对加息的定价。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街见闻提及，5月22日上周五，美联储理事沃勒发表鹰派讲话，明确表示通胀是未来政策决策的"驱动力"，称未来加息与降息“五五开”，这一表态直接推动加息预期急剧升温。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街主流机构也在同步调整判断。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>首席执行官戴蒙警告，利率可能进一步大幅上行。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据彭博报道，ING、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>及巴克莱的策略师均认为，<strong>即便油价驱动的通胀压力有所缓解，长端收益率的涨幅也难以完全回落，大规模公共债务负担以及AI投资热潮带来的结构性影响将持续发酵。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Brandywine投资组合经理Tracy Chen在接受彭博电视采访时表示，所谓"债券义警"正在警告各央行已落后于曲线。她估计：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">即便油价有所缓解，我也不认为发达市场债券的结构性抛售就此终止。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>她认为，10年期收益率最终可能升至5%，部分期限甚至可能在一段时间内触及5.5%至6%</strong>，驱动因素包括宽松财政政策、国防及AI基础设施的大规模支出、人口老龄化以及地缘政治动荡。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb7789abffef4e8a7ef6093738b6ad06","relate_stocks":{"LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1670628061.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0496365809.HKD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC (Q)","LU1894683348.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) INC","BK4566":"资本集团","LU0265550359.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A2\" (USD) 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US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","JPMO":"JPM期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3773125","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2638444567","content_text":"美伊战争引发的通胀冲击，正在重塑市场对美联储政策路径的预期。周二盘中，5年期与30年期美债收益率之差一度收窄至约81个基点，创2025年5月以来最低。与此同时，交易员目前定价显示，美联储几乎确定将于12月前启动加息，这与美伊冲突爆发前市场预期的两次降息形成鲜明反转。投资者日益认为，美伊战争引发自2023年以来最大规模的通胀冲击，迫使多位官员放弃此前的宽松立场，美联储今年将不得不收紧货币政策。尽管周一美伊和谈预期升温，油价随之回落。然而，迪拜经纪公司全球宏观顾问Steven Major表示：债券市场需要担忧的事情太多，这一地区的冲突只是故事的一部分。债券市场远未稳定，正变得有些难以预测，这也解释了为何收益率维持在高位。Brandywine的Chen也强调，推动债市承压的结构性因素，并不会因地缘局势短暂缓和而消散，投资者需要对持续的高利率环境保持警惕。曲线趋平背后：短端承压，长端相对稳定收益率曲线趋平的核心逻辑在于短端与长端的分化走势。5年期美债收益率上周攀升至年内高点4.35%，周五收于4.26%；基准10年期收益率报4.56%；而30年期收益率则从年内约5.20%的峰值回落至5.06%，部分原因是油价近期有所回落。（上周美债主要期限收益率走势）2年期与30年期收益率之差同样收窄至7月以来最低。野村证券高级策略师Andrew Ticehurst表示：数据面与政治面都在减轻降息压力，短端收益率持续上行重新定价。他补充说，特朗普关于让沃什\"独立行事\"的表态同样起到了推波助澜的作用。Markets Live策略师Garfield Reynolds指出，全球通胀加速意味着美联储及其他主要央行将维持鹰派立场，对短端构成压制，而随着全球经济增长前景遭受严重打击的迹象逐渐显现，曲线长端则存在相对支撑。官员与华尔街：加息已非小概率事件政策官员的措辞转变正在强化市场对加息的定价。华尔街见闻提及，5月22日上周五，美联储理事沃勒发表鹰派讲话，明确表示通胀是未来政策决策的\"驱动力\"，称未来加息与降息“五五开”，这一表态直接推动加息预期急剧升温。华尔街主流机构也在同步调整判断。摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙警告，利率可能进一步大幅上行。据彭博报道，ING、高盛及巴克莱的策略师均认为，即便油价驱动的通胀压力有所缓解，长端收益率的涨幅也难以完全回落，大规模公共债务负担以及AI投资热潮带来的结构性影响将持续发酵。Brandywine投资组合经理Tracy Chen在接受彭博电视采访时表示，所谓\"债券义警\"正在警告各央行已落后于曲线。她估计：即便油价有所缓解，我也不认为发达市场债券的结构性抛售就此终止。她认为，10年期收益率最终可能升至5%，部分期限甚至可能在一段时间内触及5.5%至6%，驱动因素包括宽松财政政策、国防及AI基础设施的大规模支出、人口老龄化以及地缘政治动荡。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IEI":0.6,"BIL":1.83,"TNmain":0.6,"IEF":0.6,"JPM":1.81,"ZTmain":0.6,"SHY":0.6,"TLT":0.6,"UBmain":0.6,"ZBmain":0.6,"TMV":1.88,"BND":1.85,"GOVT":0.6,"JPX":0.6,"ZFmain":0.6,"JPMO":0.6,"JPO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":27,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":51,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/568343935678136"}
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