畜牧教主马斯克
05-19
机器人不断跳票，无人的士迟迟不落地，特能吹的好日子不会太久了。
特斯拉Model Y两年来首度提价，销量承压中能否寻得利润修复？
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Y车型的价格均上涨了1,000美元。结束两年的价格混战本次Model Y部分配置涨价，一个长达两年的激进降价周期终结。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>官网显示，该公司于上周六(5月16日)在美国市场上调了Model Y系列车型的售价，为该车型两年来首次涨价。具体来看，Model Y长续航全轮驱动版与长续航后轮驱动版各涨价1,000美元，调整后售价分别为49,990美元和45,990美元;Model Y Performance高性能全轮驱动版涨价500美元至57,990美元。入门版车型售价则维持不变，仍分别为39,990美元和41,990美元。</p><p>特斯拉并未就本次涨价原因作出说明。去年8月，尽管Cybertruck皮卡车型销量不及预期且存在召回，特斯拉仍将其最昂贵的Cybertruck车型在美国市场的售价大幅上调了15,000美元。</p><p>值得关注的是，这是特斯拉时隔两年后首次上调Model Y系列售价。上一次Model Y全面提价发生在2024年，当时所有Model Y车型的价格均上涨了1,000美元。</p><p>4月2日公布的数据显示，特斯拉2026年第一季度全球交付量为358,023辆，同比增长6.3%，但低于华尔街普遍预期的37.2万辆。更值得关注的是，当季产量高达408,386辆，产销缺口超过5万辆，创下该公司历史上最大的季度库存积压纪录。全球车辆库存天数从上年同期的22天上升至27天，意味着特斯拉正从"以产定销"的模式向"以销定产"过渡。</p><p>从车型结构看，Model 3和Model Y合计交付341,893辆，仍占特斯拉总交付量的95.5%以上，显示畅销车型组合高度集中的格局并未改变。分析师对2026年全年交付的平均预测约为169万辆，仅同比增长约3.3%，仍远低于2023年181万辆的历史峰值水平。</p><h2 id=\"id_91709920\">好看的毛利率，不太"好看"的结构</h2><p>从最新发布的2026年第一季度财报来看，特斯拉交出了一份在数字上令人欣慰的成绩单，营收223.9亿美元，同比增长16%，毛利率达到21.1%，创下近年新高。</p><p>然而，深入拆解利润结构却会发现隐忧。毛利率大幅提升主要得益于约2.5亿美元的历史关税退款以及保修准备金会计调整两项一次性收益，叠加监管积分收入(约3.8亿美元)的贡献，使得汽车业务的盈利能力被显著放大。剔除这部分非常规性收益之后，特斯拉真正卖车赚取的利润率改善幅度远低于表面数字。</p><p>此外，第一季度资本开支大幅攀升至24.9亿美元，同比增长约67%。特斯拉同时宣布2026年全年资本支出计划约250亿美元，是2025年的约2.6倍。庞大的资本开支意味着卖车产生的正向经营现金流，将越来越难以覆盖AI及新车型产线建设所需的前期投入。</p><h2 id=\"id_1086494368\">结束两年的价格混战</h2><p>本次Model Y部分配置涨价，一个长达两年的激进降价周期终结。自2023年初起，特斯拉在美国市场实施了一连串降价策略，Model Y的累计降幅最高达到13,000美元。2024年4月，部分车型降价幅度高达2,000美元，创下当时该车型的历史最低价。价格战虽然保住了市场份额和产能利用率，但直接侵蚀了利润率，特斯拉的汽车业务毛利率已从2023年初的25%以上降至2025年年中的不足18%。</p><p>本次涨价幅度不大。保留入门版售价不变意味着特斯拉一方面在价格敏感型买家集中的低端市场维持竞争力，另一方面抓住高配车型的利润弹性进行增收，是一种精细化管理利润的操作。</p><p>然而，考虑到当前美国中型纯电SUV市场竞争日趋激烈，现代Ioniq 5四驱版起售价约45,000美元，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>Mustang Mach-E Select四驱版仅售42,995美元，调价后的Model Y长续航四驱版49,990美元的定价明显高于主要竞争对手，这无疑是一场"品牌力检验"。</p><p>从更宏观的竞争视角看，特斯拉的涨价亦可谓逆风而行。2025年全年销量数据显示，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">比亚迪</a>以约226万辆纯电动车销量首次超越特斯拉(约164万辆)，登顶全球纯电销冠。在中国、欧洲等关键市场，本土品牌的持续进攻令特斯拉的市场份额不断被蚕食。美国市场方面，特朗普政府取消7,500美元联邦电动车税收抵免政策也对需求形成了明显压制。</p><h2 id=\"id_2444858456\">卖车是为了"养"AI?</h2><p>特斯拉的战略重心显然已发生变化。本次Model Y提价的同时，该公司正以前所未有的规模向AI和自动驾驶投入资本。马斯克在4月23日的财报电话会上表示，第三代人形机器人Optimus Gen3预计于今年年中亮相，弗里蒙特工厂原Model S/X生产线将改造为Optimus首条量产线，设计年产能高达100万台。</p><p>首辆Cybercab无人驾驶出租车已下线，特斯拉计划在2026年内将无人驾驶服务拓展至德克萨斯州达拉斯、休斯敦及亚利桑那州<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600716\">凤凰</a>城、佛罗里达州迈阿密、奥兰多、坦帕和内华达州拉斯维加斯共8座城市，目前已在得州奥斯汀启动了载客运营。</p><p>FSD付费订阅用户已达128万人，同比增长51%，全球渗透率接近14%。特斯拉正从"卖车"的硬件公司，逐步向"卖软件+卖出行服务+卖机器人"的科技平台转型。</p><p>本次Model Y部分配置涨价，幅度虽小，但映射着特斯拉自2023年以来"以价换量"降价策略的转换。然而，在美国税收抵免取消、库存高位运行、竞争对手加速追赶的多重压力下，特斯拉能否在不大幅牺牲销量的前提下实现利润修复，仍有待观察。同时，随着资本开支持续向AI、自动驾驶和人形机器人倾斜，特斯拉正在博弈一个估值逻辑从"汽车销量"向"科技想象"切换的长期故事——这一转身的成败，或将在未来几个季度逐步明朗。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" 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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1442889.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>特斯拉官网显示，该公司于上周六(5月16日)在美国市场上调了Model Y系列车型的售价，为该车型两年来首次涨价。具体来看，Model Y长续航全轮驱动版与长续航后轮驱动版各涨价1,000美元，调整后售价分别为49,990美元和45,990美元;Model Y Performance高性能全轮驱动版涨价500美元至57,990美元。入门版车型售价则维持不变，仍分别为39,990美元和41,990...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1442889.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49ab90f6352b6ebbb45091ad18b5a2e","relate_stocks":{"IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU0345769631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","TSLO":"2倍上限加速TSLA ETF-Leverage Shares","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU2896262040.SGD":"JPM US GROWTH FUND \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A 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Y合计交付341,893辆，仍占特斯拉总交付量的95.5%以上，显示畅销车型组合高度集中的格局并未改变。分析师对2026年全年交付的平均预测约为169万辆，仅同比增长约3.3%，仍远低于2023年181万辆的历史峰值水平。好看的毛利率，不太\"好看\"的结构从最新发布的2026年第一季度财报来看，特斯拉交出了一份在数字上令人欣慰的成绩单，营收223.9亿美元，同比增长16%，毛利率达到21.1%，创下近年新高。然而，深入拆解利润结构却会发现隐忧。毛利率大幅提升主要得益于约2.5亿美元的历史关税退款以及保修准备金会计调整两项一次性收益，叠加监管积分收入(约3.8亿美元)的贡献，使得汽车业务的盈利能力被显著放大。剔除这部分非常规性收益之后，特斯拉真正卖车赚取的利润率改善幅度远低于表面数字。此外，第一季度资本开支大幅攀升至24.9亿美元，同比增长约67%。特斯拉同时宣布2026年全年资本支出计划约250亿美元，是2025年的约2.6倍。庞大的资本开支意味着卖车产生的正向经营现金流，将越来越难以覆盖AI及新车型产线建设所需的前期投入。结束两年的价格混战本次Model Y部分配置涨价，一个长达两年的激进降价周期终结。自2023年初起，特斯拉在美国市场实施了一连串降价策略，Model Y的累计降幅最高达到13,000美元。2024年4月，部分车型降价幅度高达2,000美元，创下当时该车型的历史最低价。价格战虽然保住了市场份额和产能利用率，但直接侵蚀了利润率，特斯拉的汽车业务毛利率已从2023年初的25%以上降至2025年年中的不足18%。本次涨价幅度不大。保留入门版售价不变意味着特斯拉一方面在价格敏感型买家集中的低端市场维持竞争力，另一方面抓住高配车型的利润弹性进行增收，是一种精细化管理利润的操作。然而，考虑到当前美国中型纯电SUV市场竞争日趋激烈，现代Ioniq 5四驱版起售价约45,000美元，福特Mustang Mach-E Select四驱版仅售42,995美元，调价后的Model Y长续航四驱版49,990美元的定价明显高于主要竞争对手，这无疑是一场\"品牌力检验\"。从更宏观的竞争视角看，特斯拉的涨价亦可谓逆风而行。2025年全年销量数据显示，比亚迪以约226万辆纯电动车销量首次超越特斯拉(约164万辆)，登顶全球纯电销冠。在中国、欧洲等关键市场，本土品牌的持续进攻令特斯拉的市场份额不断被蚕食。美国市场方面，特朗普政府取消7,500美元联邦电动车税收抵免政策也对需求形成了明显压制。卖车是为了\"养\"AI?特斯拉的战略重心显然已发生变化。本次Model Y提价的同时，该公司正以前所未有的规模向AI和自动驾驶投入资本。马斯克在4月23日的财报电话会上表示，第三代人形机器人Optimus Gen3预计于今年年中亮相，弗里蒙特工厂原Model S/X生产线将改造为Optimus首条量产线，设计年产能高达100万台。首辆Cybercab无人驾驶出租车已下线，特斯拉计划在2026年内将无人驾驶服务拓展至德克萨斯州达拉斯、休斯敦及亚利桑那州凤凰城、佛罗里达州迈阿密、奥兰多、坦帕和内华达州拉斯维加斯共8座城市，目前已在得州奥斯汀启动了载客运营。FSD付费订阅用户已达128万人，同比增长51%，全球渗透率接近14%。特斯拉正从\"卖车\"的硬件公司，逐步向\"卖软件+卖出行服务+卖机器人\"的科技平台转型。本次Model 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