取经
05-14 14:35
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@等也是一种策略 如何等在哪里等:
🔥 存储芯片周期性,或许已经被彻底打破⠀ ⠀ 存储芯片一直被视为高度周期性行业⠀ 周期通常每3至4年重复一次⠀ ⠀ 经典循环路径只有一条:⠀ ⠀ 内存需求暴增 → 新建大量工厂 → 产能过剩 → 价格崩盘⠀ ⠀ 但这一次,AI让一切都不一样了⠀ ⠀ 🧱 原因一:存储芯片是AI发展的刚需⠀ ⠀ AI大模型的训练、推理和长期运行⠀ 高度依赖海量、高速、低延迟的数据存储与搬运⠀ ⠀ 没有足够强的”存力”⠀ 再强的算力——GPU也好、TPU也好——都会被内存墙卡住⠀ 效率大幅降低,甚至根本无法运行⠀ ⠀ 存储不是配角,存储是地基⠀ ⠀ 🌱 原因二:AI全球普及率仍处于发展早期⠀ ⠀ 现在我们看到的需求⠀ 还不是最旺盛的时候⠀ ⠀ 这只是刚刚起步⠀ ⠀ 当AI渗透率从现在突破到50%甚至更高⠀ 存储芯片的需求规模⠀ 将是今天无法想象的量级⠀ ⠀ 📈 原因三:AI是指数级增长,产能永远追不上需求⠀ ⠀ 从2022年底到现在,不过三年半时间⠀ AI已经彻底改变了整个科技行业的面貌⠀ ⠀ AI的指数级增长⠀ 必然带动存储芯片需求的指数级增长⠀ ⠀ 产能扩张是线性的⠀ 需求爆发是指数的⠀ ⠀ 这个剪刀差,意味着很长一段时间内⠀ 存储芯片都将维持供不应求的格局⠀ ⠀ 💎 结论⠀ ⠀ $MU 海力士市值⠀ 万亿美元只是起点,不是终点⠀ ⠀ 后续若有回调⠀ 将是重点关注、重点布局的机会⠀ ⠀ 📌 欢迎评论交流,互相学习,无限进步⠀
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如何等在哪里等","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/120755ba038fdcb70c2bb1d2816ad8f1","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":659,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38c16de4c961ecef0eba48f137f1e607","width":"941","height":"1672"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38c16de4c961ecef0eba48f137f1e607","width":"941","height":"1672"}],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>🔥 存储芯片周期性,或许已经被彻底打破⠀</p>\n<p>⠀</p>\n<p>存储芯片一直被视为高度周期性行业⠀</p>\n<p>周期通常每3至4年重复一次⠀</p>\n<p>⠀</p>\n<p>经典循环路径只有一条:⠀</p>\n<p>⠀</p>\n<p>内存需求暴增 → 新建大量工厂 → 产能过剩 → 价格崩盘⠀</p>\n<p>⠀</p>\n<p>但这一次,AI让一切都不一样了⠀</p>\n<p>⠀</p>\n<p>🧱 原因一:存储芯片是AI发展的刚需⠀</p>\n<p>⠀</p>\n<p>AI大模型的训练、推理和长期运行⠀</p>\n<p>高度依赖海量、高速、低延迟的数据存储与搬运⠀</p>\n<p>⠀</p>\n<p>没有足够强的”存力”⠀</p>\n<p>再强的算力——GPU也好、TPU也好——都会被内存墙卡住⠀</p>\n<p>效率大幅降低,甚至根本无法运行⠀</p>\n<p>⠀</p>\n<p>存储不是配角,存储是地基⠀</p>\n<p>⠀</p>\n<p>🌱 原因二:AI全球普及率仍处于发展早期⠀</p>\n<p>⠀</p>\n<p>现在我们看到的需求⠀</p>\n<p>还不是最旺盛的时候⠀</p>\n<p>⠀</p>\n<p>这只是刚刚起步⠀</p>\n<p>⠀</p>\n<p>当AI渗透率从现在突破到50%甚至更高⠀</p>\n<p>存储芯片的需求规模⠀</p>\n<p>将是今天无法想象的量级⠀</p>\n<p>⠀</p>\n<p>📈 原因三:AI是指数级增长,产能永远追不上需求⠀</p>\n<p>⠀</p>\n<p>从2022年底到现在,不过三年半时间⠀</p>\n<p>AI已经彻底改变了整个科技行业的面貌⠀</p>\n<p>⠀</p>\n<p>AI的指数级增长⠀</p>\n<p>必然带动存储芯片需求的指数级增长⠀</p>\n<p>⠀</p>\n<p>产能扩张是线性的⠀</p>\n<p>需求爆发是指数的⠀</p>\n<p>⠀</p>\n<p>这个剪刀差,意味着很长一段时间内⠀</p>\n<p>存储芯片都将维持供不应求的格局⠀</p>\n<p>⠀</p>\n<p>💎 结论⠀</p>\n<p>⠀</p>\n<p>$MU 海力士市值⠀</p>\n<p>万亿美元只是起点,不是终点⠀</p>\n<p>⠀</p>\n<p>后续若有回调⠀</p>\n<p>将是重点关注、重点布局的机会⠀</p>\n<p>⠀</p>\n<p>📌 欢迎评论交流,互相学习,无限进步⠀</p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38c16de4c961ecef0eba48f137f1e607\" tg-width=\"941\" 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