理想情景：川普出兵→_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

理想情景：川普出兵→轰炸伊朗水电设施→伊朗鱼死网破炸沙特油田丢水雷封海峡→油价破200。 $WTI原油主连 2605(CLmain)$

黄金期货周一大涨3.32%至4484美元/盎司,一举突破4400关口并刷新七周高位,白银涨4.70%至66.31美元,涨势比黄金更急。逻辑仍是上周非农留下的那条链:就业减少2.3万、时薪只增3.2%,9月加息押注被压下去,油价回落先缓和通胀担忧,收益率与美元预期同步下行,贵金属的主线已从避险彻底切到"实际利率回落"。周三的CPI是这条链的下一个验证点。当买盘在数据公布前就先抢跑,金银赌的是通胀降温还是政策转向?

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