飞起来君君
03-21 08:20
黄金可以说说嘛
@期权小班长：
什么时候可以抄底
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data-mention-id=\"SPY\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"标普500ETF\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a></p>\n<p>什么时候可以抄底？反正不是现在。理由也很简单，目前跌幅计价的是油价飙升对市场的影响，那还有财报季呢？</p>\n<p>3月20日三巫日过完，三周后，就是Q2财报季了。考虑到本季度财报季的情形，支出成为影响股价的首要因素。支出飙升股价下跌，那反过来支出下跌是不是股价就会涨了？</p>\n<p>显然不是。支出下跌说明大科技公司谨慎对待AI前景，由此肯定会引发一轮估值大缩水。所以看到spy的5月看跌开仓定位600～625我也不是很奇怪了，实在是太悲观了。</p>\n<p>不过也不排除下周会反弹，看跌开仓到期日相比看涨显著延后。所以这个位置暴涨暴跌都有可能，但期权价格很贵，做买方不划算，做卖方容易爆仓，很尴尬，适用于所有股票。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4ddea0a1b587003d60b577eeea8cf4d\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"1156\"></p>\n<p><a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a></p>\n<p>随着大盘大幅回调，英伟达价差策略行权价也随之下调：sell call <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20260327 185.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020260327%20185.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20260327 185.0 CALL$</a> ，buy call <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20260327 190.0 CALL\">$NVDA 20260327 190.0 CALL$ </a> .</p>\n<p>但我觉得现在不适合sell call了，周五和周一的情况已经不一样了，大幅回调sell call容易逼空。</p>\n<p>sell put也不适合，因为看跌开仓显示下周尾部风险很高，腰斩行权价大量开仓，毕竟又一个周末要开始了，谁也不知道会发生什么。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2030523f4337387f892bfdb230932322\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"1154\"></p>\n<p>排除灰天鹅选项干扰，下周回调幅度很难预测，毕竟这周的下限就预测错了。从开仓情况来看，下限有可能在165～175之间，但不排除更低。</p>\n<p>上限也不好猜，如果没有逼空，股价低于185；如果逼空，股价低于190，所以如果下周有反弹逼空适合做sell call。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c07a9d7a6cec0ff8815702e23b5068dd\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"1152\"></p>\n<p><a data-mention-id=\"USO\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"美国原油ETF\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a></p>\n<p>押注原油回调的仓位变多，比如周三有看跌价差大单开仓：</p>\n<ul style=\"\">\n <li>\n <p>买 <a data-mention-id=\"USO 20260417 80.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"USO\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/USO%2020260417%2080.0%20PUT\">$USO 20260417 80.0 PUT$</a> 开仓2.6万手</p></li>\n <li>\n <p>卖 <a data-mention-id=\"USO 20260417 75.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"USO\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/USO%2020260417%2075.0%20PUT\">$USO 20260417 75.0 PUT$</a> 开仓2.4万手</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>预期4月中旬前石油会回调，虽然成交额不高，不过这种押注说明市场最后的冲刺要开始了。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce0dfb900bd56a1ba8e45d731f48b65\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"1058\"></p>\n<p><a data-mention-id=\"TSLA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"特斯拉\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a></p>\n<p>机构sell call 392.5 <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20260327 392.5 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020260327%20392.5%20CALL\">$TSLA 20260327 392.5 CALL$</a> ，buy call407.5 <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20260327 407.5 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020260327%20407.5%20CALL\">$TSLA 20260327 407.5 CALL$</a> ，3月27日当周股价不超过392.5，前提是大盘不会反弹逼空。</p>\n<p>回调价格很明显，340。理论上370应该有强支撑，不过目前来看够呛。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfa3d6bf5ebfeedbb8d7b1db76bf1164\" tg-width=\"1046\" tg-height=\"1122\"></p>\n<p></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p><a data-mention-id=\"SPY\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"标普500ETF\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a></p>\n<p>什么时候可以抄底？反正不是现在。理由也很简单，目前跌幅计价的是油价飙升对市场的影响，那还有财报季呢？</p>\n<p>3月20日三巫日过完，三周后，就是Q2财报季了。考虑到本季度财报季的情形，支出成为影响股价的首要因素。支出飙升股价下跌，那反过来支出下跌是不是股价就会涨了？</p>\n<p>显然不是。支出下跌说明大科技公司谨慎对待AI前景，由此肯定会引发一轮估值大缩水。所以看到spy的5月看跌开仓定位600～625我也不是很奇怪了，实在是太悲观了。</p>\n<p>不过也不排除下周会反弹，看跌开仓到期日相比看涨显著延后。所以这个位置暴涨暴跌都有可能，但期权价格很贵，做买方不划算，做卖方容易爆仓，很尴尬，适用于所有股票。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4ddea0a1b587003d60b577eeea8cf4d\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"1156\"></p>\n<p><a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a></p>\n<p>随着大盘大幅回调，英伟达价差策略行权价也随之下调：sell call <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20260327 185.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020260327%20185.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20260327 185.0 CALL$</a> ，buy call <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20260327 190.0 CALL\">$NVDA 20260327 190.0 CALL$ </a> .</p>\n<p>但我觉得现在不适合sell call了，周五和周一的情况已经不一样了，大幅回调sell call容易逼空。</p>\n<p>sell put也不适合，因为看跌开仓显示下周尾部风险很高，腰斩行权价大量开仓，毕竟又一个周末要开始了，谁也不知道会发生什么。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2030523f4337387f892bfdb230932322\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"1154\"></p>\n<p>排除灰天鹅选项干扰，下周回调幅度很难预测，毕竟这周的下限就预测错了。从开仓情况来看，下限有可能在165～175之间，但不排除更低。</p>\n<p>上限也不好猜，如果没有逼空，股价低于185；如果逼空，股价低于190，所以如果下周有反弹逼空适合做sell call。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c07a9d7a6cec0ff8815702e23b5068dd\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"1152\"></p>\n<p><a data-mention-id=\"USO\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"美国原油ETF\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a></p>\n<p>押注原油回调的仓位变多，比如周三有看跌价差大单开仓：</p>\n<ul style=\"\">\n <li>\n <p>买 <a data-mention-id=\"USO 20260417 80.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"USO\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/USO%2020260417%2080.0%20PUT\">$USO 20260417 80.0 PUT$</a> 开仓2.6万手</p></li>\n <li>\n <p>卖 <a data-mention-id=\"USO 20260417 75.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"USO\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/USO%2020260417%2075.0%20PUT\">$USO 20260417 75.0 PUT$</a> 开仓2.4万手</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>预期4月中旬前石油会回调，虽然成交额不高，不过这种押注说明市场最后的冲刺要开始了。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce0dfb900bd56a1ba8e45d731f48b65\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"1058\"></p>\n<p><a data-mention-id=\"TSLA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"特斯拉\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a></p>\n<p>机构sell call 392.5 <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20260327 392.5 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020260327%20392.5%20CALL\">$TSLA 20260327 392.5 CALL$</a> ，buy call407.5 <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20260327 407.5 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020260327%20407.5%20CALL\">$TSLA 20260327 407.5 CALL$</a> ，3月27日当周股价不超过392.5，前提是大盘不会反弹逼空。</p>\n<p>回调价格很明显，340。理论上370应该有强支撑，不过目前来看够呛。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfa3d6bf5ebfeedbb8d7b1db76bf1164\" tg-width=\"1046\" tg-height=\"1122\"></p>\n<p></p></body></html>","text":"$标普500ETF(SPY)$ 什么时候可以抄底？反正不是现在。理由也很简单，目前跌幅计价的是油价飙升对市场的影响，那还有财报季呢？ 3月20日三巫日过完，三周后，就是Q2财报季了。考虑到本季度财报季的情形，支出成为影响股价的首要因素。支出飙升股价下跌，那反过来支出下跌是不是股价就会涨了？ 显然不是。支出下跌说明大科技公司谨慎对待AI前景，由此肯定会引发一轮估值大缩水。所以看到spy的5月看跌开仓定位600～625我也不是很奇怪了，实在是太悲观了。 不过也不排除下周会反弹，看跌开仓到期日相比看涨显著延后。所以这个位置暴涨暴跌都有可能，但期权价格很贵，做买方不划算，做卖方容易爆仓，很尴尬，适用于所有股票。 $英伟达(NVDA)$ 随着大盘大幅回调，英伟达价差策略行权价也随之下调：sell call $NVDA 20260327 185.0 CALL$ ，buy call $NVDA 20260327 190.0 CALL$ . 但我觉得现在不适合sell call了，周五和周一的情况已经不一样了，大幅回调sell call容易逼空。 sell put也不适合，因为看跌开仓显示下周尾部风险很高，腰斩行权价大量开仓，毕竟又一个周末要开始了，谁也不知道会发生什么。 排除灰天鹅选项干扰，下周回调幅度很难预测，毕竟这周的下限就预测错了。从开仓情况来看，下限有可能在165～175之间，但不排除更低。 上限也不好猜，如果没有逼空，股价低于185；如果逼空，股价低于190，所以如果下周有反弹逼空适合做sell call。 $美国原油ETF(USO)$ 押注原油回调的仓位变多，比如周三有看跌价差大单开仓： 买 $USO 20260417 80.0 PUT$ 开仓2.6万手 卖 $USO 20260417 75.0 PUT$ 开仓2.4万手 预期4月中旬前石油会回调，虽然成交额不高，不过这种押注说明市场最后的冲刺要开始了。 $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 机构sell call 392.5 $TSLA 20260327 392.5 CALL$ ，buy call407.5 $TSLA 20260327 407.5 CALL$ ，3月27日当周股价不超过392.5，前提是大盘不会反弹逼空。 回调价格很明显，340。理论上370应该有强支撑，不过目前来看够呛。","highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/544803732267048","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["NVDA","USO","TSLA","SPY","TSLA 20260327 392.5 CALL","USO 20260417 80.0 PUT","NVDA 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