$黄金主连 2604_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

$黄金主连 2604(GCmain)$ $白银主连 2603(SImain)$ 我上一篇分析告诉大家，金银只能暂时以b反来看待，预计还有一轮c浪杀，黄金向上可能会反弹之前下跌的一半的幅度，目前黄金已经在到达5100之后开始了c浪杀，白银杀的幅度更大，就问这个马前炮响不响？你打多少分？$黄金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$ $黄金矿业ETF-VanEck(GDX)$ $白银ETF-iShares(SLV)$

@交易员Owen：判断金银是反弹还是反转？有这样两个关键的观察点

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

文化行者
02-05 23:16
文化行者
啥时候杀到65，65就可以走主神浪了吗
新手向阳
02-05 10:56
新手向阳
C浪杀到哪？
- 新手向阳回复Ai简单:
  好，等待。
- Ai简单:
  个人看65
Inmoretion
02-05 12:51
Inmoretion
之后的下杀会不会低于前面那波
想明白再上车
19分钟前
想明白再上车
黄金杀到哪啊
郜家跳跳虎
02-05 11:20
郜家跳跳虎
绝对超满分！
SiongZ
02-05 11:00
SiongZ
神准！打95分！

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我们抄底金银后，面对的到底是短期的反弹行情；还是反转的，继续长期上涨的行情呢？</p><p>先说结论，<span class=\"color-mark\" style=\"color: rgb(230, 126, 35);\">我认为目前我们面对的金银的上涨，只能当成短期的反弹来看，而当金银的价格反弹在没有超过一定的高度之前，我们应该报以十二分的谨慎，先假设金银还会有一次C浪杀，并在反弹的高点出现拐点向下的迹象时，再次尝试布局空头头寸。而如果行情继续走高并超过了我们空单的入场点的话，就立刻止损就好了。</span></p><p>总之，在市场有明显的底部结构出现前，在沃什担任美联储主席这个风险事件确定的落地前，不要轻易的去猜测金银已经见底。下面咱们来详细说一下策略步骤：</p><h4 id=\"id_2596570724\">第一，技术面看，金银的反弹只能当成是B浪反弹，之后我们先假设还有一波C浪杀。</h4><p>我们看下黄金的走势，目前COMEX黄金期货的主连行情走势已经非常明显是个阶段性见底的走势，日线上行支撑位有着很明显的作用。而白银的价格主要还是跟随黄金波动。</p><p><a data-mention-id=\"SImain\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"白银主连 2603\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/SImain\">$白银主连 2603(SImain)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"QImain\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"迷你白银主连 2603\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/QImain\">$迷你白银主连 2603(QImain)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"SI2603\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"白银2603\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/SI2603\">$白银2603(SI2603)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"AGQ\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGQ\">$2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares(AGQ)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"SILmain\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"微白银主连 2603\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/SILmain\">$微白银主连 2603(SILmain)$</a></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7088c05cbb71b595d76dcd9529235036\" tg-width=\"1818\" tg-height=\"809\"></p><p>这意味着黄金的“杀跌”已经接近一个技术上的瓶颈期，后面更可能转入让人闹心的“大幅震荡行情”。但从波浪结构的表达上来说，金银这波大幅杀跌突然出现V型反转的可能性并不大，起码要走一个反弹的 B 浪，那么在这么大的下跌幅度之后，价格大幅反弹向上，并测试下跌波段 50% 的情况并不意外，但这类反弹浪本身非常难把握，所以不建议逆势去做。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1ace019219263d457470cd0c9ac8cfd\" tg-width=\"1809\" tg-height=\"805\"></p><p>另外，如果反弹的B浪超过了之前黄金下跌幅度的0.618的黄金分割位置的时候，也就是上图中，COMEX黄金价格5183的点位，一旦超过了这个位置，则黄金反转的可能就会大大增加，黄金可能还会有下跌，但砸出新低的可能性就会减少，这是从技术理论上来看的情况。</p><p>所以技术上，大家关注两个变量即可：</p><p><span class=\"color-mark\" style=\"color: rgb(230, 126, 35);\">第一，反弹是否能涨破 0.618 回撤位（价格上就是 5183），若能涨破可以暂时改变看空的观点，否则仍按 B 浪反弹处理；</span></p><p><span class=\"color-mark\" style=\"color: rgb(230, 126, 35);\">第二，观察 5 日线是否死叉 10 日线，以及 20 日均线能否守住——若死叉后 20 日均线失守，则黄金仍是“空头走势”，若死叉后很快又金叉且 20 日均线未被彻底跌破，则黄金仍可能继续走高。</span></p><h4 id=\"id_4156684659\">基本面上看，我认为“下跌并未到位”的理由来自不确定性与美元变量</h4><p>从基本面上看，金银下跌可能并未到位的判断来源于两点。</p><p><a data-mention-id=\"USDindex.FOREX\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"美元指数\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">$美元指数(USDindex.FOREX)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"EMB\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"新兴市场美元债ETF-iShares\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EMB\">$新兴市场美元债ETF-iShares(EMB)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"UUP\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"美元ETF-PowerShares DB\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UUP\">$美元ETF-PowerShares DB(UUP)$</a></p><p>第一，“沃什不一定能上台”，因为有共和党议员表态在鲍威尔的问题解决前不同意沃什担任主席，因此沃什的当任可能还需要参议院表决；</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcd385e50e228b7350f2145106847aa3\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"705\"></p><p>第二，即便沃什真的通过，市场目前对他的鹰派计价如何改变仍需要等他的具体言论来降低市场的不明确程度，而在当前这种不明确程度下，大宗商品（包括金银）可能还要往下跌，且震荡期不好把握。</p><p>大家注意了，特朗普的支持率与美元指数（DXY）的走势“出奇一致”，如果特朗普意识到这一点，可能会做一些“强美元”的事情，而提名鹰派的沃什，是否是特朗普对自己之前弱美元的一系列错误操作的幡然醒悟呢，还需要继续观察。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de26466a318f43597e1404f9e023a9a1\" tg-width=\"1909\" tg-height=\"706\"></p><p>另外，大家注意，高盛的研究报告中观察了美元指数和花旗银行的美国经济意外指数走势拟合性的对比图。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b08aa6a9331e91bb7c69935b75896b9\" tg-width=\"1398\" tg-height=\"941\"></p><p>在美国经济出现改善的时候，似乎美元指数也极大概率有可能出现见底的走势。那么这个时候，大家要关注一下美国长债的多头机会和欧元的空头机会了。一旦美元指数开启反弹，则美债可能有所反弹；同时金银即便是开启反弹，但也很可能并未反转。</p><p><a data-mention-id=\"TLT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLT\">$20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"EURmain\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"欧元主连 2603\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/EURmain\">$欧元主连 2603(EURmain)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"EUO\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"欧元ETF-ProShares两倍做空\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EUO\">$欧元ETF-ProShares两倍做空(EUO)$</a></p><h4 id=\"id_3557516512\">黄金长期走高并未结束</h4><p>长期看，黄金走高的整体行情不会因为一时的波折而结束，我们认为，以未来5年为视角，任何的回落可能都是加仓黄金的机会。根据高盛的历史价格回归测试得出的结论，未来金价有可能突破8000。</p><p>高盛的这个回归测试是这样的，当全球机构、个人投资者以及央行持有的黄金总量处于380吨以上的情况下，每增加 100 吨的持有量，黄金价格季度环比大约上涨 3%；</p><p><a data-mention-id=\"GCmain\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"黄金主连 2604\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连 2604(GCmain)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"MGCmain\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"微黄金主连 2604\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGCmain\">$微黄金主连 2604(MGCmain)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"1OZmain\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"1盎司黄金主连 2604\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/1OZmain\">$1盎司黄金主连 2604(1OZmain)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"QOmain\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"迷你黄金主连 2604\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/QOmain\">$迷你黄金主连 2604(QOmain)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"GDUmain\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"美元黄金主连 2602\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GDUmain\">$美元黄金主连 2602(GDUmain)$</a></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f58dda50a60f56780efeebae940ba51\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"809\"></p><p>所以，只要央行购金这一主导力量没有出现拐点，高盛的报告中认为，黄金就可能走到 8000 以上，而这与我前面“长线继续上行”的主观点是一致的；但短线仍需按 B 浪反弹的高波动结构来应对即可。</p><p></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>在大幅的杀跌过后，很多人目前可能最焦虑的一个问题是，金银到底能不能抄底? 我们抄底金银后，面对的到底是短期的反弹行情；还是反转的，继续长期上涨的行情呢？</p><p>先说结论，<span class=\"color-mark\" style=\"color: rgb(230, 126, 35);\">我认为目前我们面对的金银的上涨，只能当成短期的反弹来看，而当金银的价格反弹在没有超过一定的高度之前，我们应该报以十二分的谨慎，先假设金银还会有一次C浪杀，并在反弹的高点出现拐点向下的迹象时，再次尝试布局空头头寸。而如果行情继续走高并超过了我们空单的入场点的话，就立刻止损就好了。</span></p><p>总之，在市场有明显的底部结构出现前，在沃什担任美联储主席这个风险事件确定的落地前，不要轻易的去猜测金银已经见底。下面咱们来详细说一下策略步骤：</p><h4 id=\"id_2596570724\">第一，技术面看，金银的反弹只能当成是B浪反弹，之后我们先假设还有一波C浪杀。</h4><p>我们看下黄金的走势，目前COMEX黄金期货的主连行情走势已经非常明显是个阶段性见底的走势，日线上行支撑位有着很明显的作用。而白银的价格主要还是跟随黄金波动。</p><p><a data-mention-id=\"SImain\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"白银主连 2603\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/SImain\">$白银主连 2603(SImain)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"QImain\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"迷你白银主连 2603\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/QImain\">$迷你白银主连 2603(QImain)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"SI2603\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"白银2603\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/SI2603\">$白银2603(SI2603)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"AGQ\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGQ\">$2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares(AGQ)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"SILmain\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"微白银主连 2603\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/SILmain\">$微白银主连 2603(SILmain)$</a></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7088c05cbb71b595d76dcd9529235036\" tg-width=\"1818\" tg-height=\"809\"></p><p>这意味着黄金的“杀跌”已经接近一个技术上的瓶颈期，后面更可能转入让人闹心的“大幅震荡行情”。但从波浪结构的表达上来说，金银这波大幅杀跌突然出现V型反转的可能性并不大，起码要走一个反弹的 B 浪，那么在这么大的下跌幅度之后，价格大幅反弹向上，并测试下跌波段 50% 的情况并不意外，但这类反弹浪本身非常难把握，所以不建议逆势去做。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1ace019219263d457470cd0c9ac8cfd\" tg-width=\"1809\" tg-height=\"805\"></p><p>另外，如果反弹的B浪超过了之前黄金下跌幅度的0.618的黄金分割位置的时候，也就是上图中，COMEX黄金价格5183的点位，一旦超过了这个位置，则黄金反转的可能就会大大增加，黄金可能还会有下跌，但砸出新低的可能性就会减少，这是从技术理论上来看的情况。</p><p>所以技术上，大家关注两个变量即可：</p><p><span class=\"color-mark\" style=\"color: rgb(230, 126, 35);\">第一，反弹是否能涨破 0.618 回撤位（价格上就是 5183），若能涨破可以暂时改变看空的观点，否则仍按 B 浪反弹处理；</span></p><p><span class=\"color-mark\" style=\"color: rgb(230, 126, 35);\">第二，观察 5 日线是否死叉 10 日线，以及 20 日均线能否守住——若死叉后 20 日均线失守，则黄金仍是“空头走势”，若死叉后很快又金叉且 20 日均线未被彻底跌破，则黄金仍可能继续走高。</span></p><h4 id=\"id_4156684659\">基本面上看，我认为“下跌并未到位”的理由来自不确定性与美元变量</h4><p>从基本面上看，金银下跌可能并未到位的判断来源于两点。</p><p><a data-mention-id=\"USDindex.FOREX\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"美元指数\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">$美元指数(USDindex.FOREX)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"EMB\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"新兴市场美元债ETF-iShares\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EMB\">$新兴市场美元债ETF-iShares(EMB)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"UUP\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"美元ETF-PowerShares DB\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UUP\">$美元ETF-PowerShares DB(UUP)$</a></p><p>第一，“沃什不一定能上台”，因为有共和党议员表态在鲍威尔的问题解决前不同意沃什担任主席，因此沃什的当任可能还需要参议院表决；</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcd385e50e228b7350f2145106847aa3\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"705\"></p><p>第二，即便沃什真的通过，市场目前对他的鹰派计价如何改变仍需要等他的具体言论来降低市场的不明确程度，而在当前这种不明确程度下，大宗商品（包括金银）可能还要往下跌，且震荡期不好把握。</p><p>大家注意了，特朗普的支持率与美元指数（DXY）的走势“出奇一致”，如果特朗普意识到这一点，可能会做一些“强美元”的事情，而提名鹰派的沃什，是否是特朗普对自己之前弱美元的一系列错误操作的幡然醒悟呢，还需要继续观察。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de26466a318f43597e1404f9e023a9a1\" tg-width=\"1909\" tg-height=\"706\"></p><p>另外，大家注意，高盛的研究报告中观察了美元指数和花旗银行的美国经济意外指数走势拟合性的对比图。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b08aa6a9331e91bb7c69935b75896b9\" tg-width=\"1398\" tg-height=\"941\"></p><p>在美国经济出现改善的时候，似乎美元指数也极大概率有可能出现见底的走势。那么这个时候，大家要关注一下美国长债的多头机会和欧元的空头机会了。一旦美元指数开启反弹，则美债可能有所反弹；同时金银即便是开启反弹，但也很可能并未反转。</p><p><a data-mention-id=\"TLT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLT\">$20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"EURmain\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"欧元主连 2603\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/EURmain\">$欧元主连 2603(EURmain)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"EUO\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"欧元ETF-ProShares两倍做空\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EUO\">$欧元ETF-ProShares两倍做空(EUO)$</a></p><h4 id=\"id_3557516512\">黄金长期走高并未结束</h4><p>长期看，黄金走高的整体行情不会因为一时的波折而结束，我们认为，以未来5年为视角，任何的回落可能都是加仓黄金的机会。根据高盛的历史价格回归测试得出的结论，未来金价有可能突破8000。</p><p>高盛的这个回归测试是这样的，当全球机构、个人投资者以及央行持有的黄金总量处于380吨以上的情况下，每增加 100 吨的持有量，黄金价格季度环比大约上涨 3%；</p><p><a data-mention-id=\"GCmain\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"黄金主连 2604\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连 2604(GCmain)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"MGCmain\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"微黄金主连 2604\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MGCmain\">$微黄金主连 2604(MGCmain)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"1OZmain\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"1盎司黄金主连 2604\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/1OZmain\">$1盎司黄金主连 2604(1OZmain)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"QOmain\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"迷你黄金主连 2604\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/QOmain\">$迷你黄金主连 2604(QOmain)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"GDUmain\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"美元黄金主连 2602\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GDUmain\">$美元黄金主连 2602(GDUmain)$</a></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f58dda50a60f56780efeebae940ba51\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"809\"></p><p>所以，只要央行购金这一主导力量没有出现拐点，高盛的报告中认为，黄金就可能走到 8000 以上，而这与我前面“长线继续上行”的主观点是一致的；但短线仍需按 B 浪反弹的高波动结构来应对即可。</p><p></p></body></html>","text":"在大幅的杀跌过后，很多人目前可能最焦虑的一个问题是，金银到底能不能抄底? 我们抄底金银后，面对的到底是短期的反弹行情；还是反转的，继续长期上涨的行情呢？ 先说结论，我认为目前我们面对的金银的上涨，只能当成短期的反弹来看，而当金银的价格反弹在没有超过一定的高度之前，我们应该报以十二分的谨慎，先假设金银还会有一次C浪杀，并在反弹的高点出现拐点向下的迹象时，再次尝试布局空头头寸。而如果行情继续走高并超过了我们空单的入场点的话，就立刻止损就好了。 总之，在市场有明显的底部结构出现前，在沃什担任美联储主席这个风险事件确定的落地前，不要轻易的去猜测金银已经见底。下面咱们来详细说一下策略步骤： 第一，技术面看，金银的反弹只能当成是B浪反弹，之后我们先假设还有一波C浪杀。 我们看下黄金的走势，目前COMEX黄金期货的主连行情走势已经非常明显是个阶段性见底的走势，日线上行支撑位有着很明显的作用。而白银的价格主要还是跟随黄金波动。 $白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $迷你白银主连 2603(QImain)$ $白银2603(SI2603)$ $2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares(AGQ)$ $微白银主连 2603(SILmain)$ 这意味着黄金的“杀跌”已经接近一个技术上的瓶颈期，后面更可能转入让人闹心的“大幅震荡行情”。但从波浪结构的表达上来说，金银这波大幅杀跌突然出现V型反转的可能性并不大，起码要走一个反弹的 B 浪，那么在这么大的下跌幅度之后，价格大幅反弹向上，并测试下跌波段 50% 的情况并不意外，但这类反弹浪本身非常难把握，所以不建议逆势去做。 另外，如果反弹的B浪超过了之前黄金下跌幅度的0.618的黄金分割位置的时候，也就是上图中，COMEX黄金价格5183的点位，一旦超过了这个位置，则黄金反转的可能就会大大增加，黄金可能还会有下跌，但砸出新低的可能性就会减少，这是从技术理论上来看的情况。 所以技术上，大家关注两个变量即可： 第一，反弹是否能涨破 0.618 回撤位（价格上就是 5183），若能涨破可以暂时改变看空的观点，否则仍按 B 浪反弹处理； 第二，观察 5 日线是否死叉 10 日线，以及 20 日均线能否守住——若死叉后 20 日均线失守，则黄金仍是“空头走势”，若死叉后很快又金叉且 20 日均线未被彻底跌破，则黄金仍可能继续走高。 基本面上看，我认为“下跌并未到位”的理由来自不确定性与美元变量 从基本面上看，金银下跌可能并未到位的判断来源于两点。 $美元指数(USDindex.FOREX)$ $新兴市场美元债ETF-iShares(EMB)$ $美元ETF-PowerShares DB(UUP)$ 第一，“沃什不一定能上台”，因为有共和党议员表态在鲍威尔的问题解决前不同意沃什担任主席，因此沃什的当任可能还需要参议院表决； 第二，即便沃什真的通过，市场目前对他的鹰派计价如何改变仍需要等他的具体言论来降低市场的不明确程度，而在当前这种不明确程度下，大宗商品（包括金银）可能还要往下跌，且震荡期不好把握。 大家注意了，特朗普的支持率与美元指数（DXY）的走势“出奇一致”，如果特朗普意识到这一点，可能会做一些“强美元”的事情，而提名鹰派的沃什，是否是特朗普对自己之前弱美元的一系列错误操作的幡然醒悟呢，还需要继续观察。 另外，大家注意，高盛的研究报告中观察了美元指数和花旗银行的美国经济意外指数走势拟合性的对比图。 在美国经济出现改善的时候，似乎美元指数也极大概率有可能出现见底的走势。那么这个时候，大家要关注一下美国长债的多头机会和欧元的空头机会了。一旦美元指数开启反弹，则美债可能有所反弹；同时金银即便是开启反弹，但也很可能并未反转。 $20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$ $欧元主连 2603(EURmain)$ $欧元ETF-ProShares两倍做空(EUO)$ 黄金长期走高并未结束 长期看，黄金走高的整体行情不会因为一时的波折而结束，我们认为，以未来5年为视角，任何的回落可能都是加仓黄金的机会。根据高盛的历史价格回归测试得出的结论，未来金价有可能突破8000。 高盛的这个回归测试是这样的，当全球机构、个人投资者以及央行持有的黄金总量处于380吨以上的情况下，每增加 100 吨的持有量，黄金价格季度环比大约上涨 3%； $黄金主连 2604(GCmain)$ $微黄金主连 2604(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黄金主连 2604(1OZmain)$ $迷你黄金主连 2604(QOmain)$ $美元黄金主连 2602(GDUmain)$ 所以，只要央行购金这一主导力量没有出现拐点，高盛的报告中认为，黄金就可能走到 8000 以上，而这与我前面“长线继续上行”的主观点是一致的；但短线仍需按 B 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