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01-31
放心,其他都是炒作!特斯拉才会走到最后!!!
中国车企和特斯拉的下一战,战场已定
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src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff930a99ccd64c2f9c9c9530aa203a50\"/></span></p><p flex=\"\" flex-end=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\"><span helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" right=\"\"><span leaf=\"\">争夺25万亿美元的市场</span></span></p><p flex=\"\" flex-end=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" nodeleaf=\"\"><img helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d61b60d015419da0977227d76731d8\"/></p><span block=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\"><p><span label=\"备注\"><span leaf=\"\">出品|虎嗅汽车组</span></span></p><p><span label=\"备注\"><span leaf=\"\">作者|王亚骏</span><span leaf=\"\"></span></span></p><p><span label=\"备注\"><span leaf=\"\">头图|<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000681\">视觉中国</a></span></span></p></span><p><span leaf=\"\">在发布了“建设富足非凡世界”的新使命后,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>又用两款旗舰车型,来为这个新使命“祭旗”。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">在Q4财报电话会开场白环节上,特斯拉CEO马斯克表示,是时候让Model S和Model X“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09998\">光荣</a>退役(honorable discharge)”了,这两款特斯拉的功勋车型将于下季度基本停产。</span></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e2bd773b8c04e5bac9b47c3279b5c7b\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\"><span leaf=\"\">Model S/X的成功,为特斯拉走辆车型Model 3/Y带来了研发资金。同时,它们还极大程度上促进了新能源汽车从\"环保政策工具\"向\"大型科技类消费品\"的跃迁。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">原本生产Model S和Model X的弗里蒙特工厂,将改为生产Optimus机器人。这款产品可以视为特斯拉新使命中最为重要的一环,马斯克认为未来特斯拉80%的市值都由Optimus机器人支撑。不过,他的梦想正面临着来自大洋彼岸的威胁。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">在财报电话会上,马斯克直言,中国擅长AI,也擅长制造,在人形机器人领域,特斯拉最大的竞争肯定来自中国。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">从中国车企在人形机器人领域的动作来看,马斯克这番话并非什么“高情商”之语或杞人忧天。目前在国内,不管是新势力还是传统车企,均已在机器人产业进行了布局。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">同时,中国车企的入场步伐也在不断加快。在特斯拉发布财报的三天前,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>开了一次线上全员会,公司CEO李想表示,理想一定会做人形机器人,并会尽快让该产品落地亮相。</span></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f48f0f3ed25845ba9c3d426fed09d3af\"/></p><p><span leaf=\"\">这意味着,在FSD尚未入华、双方智驾战还是“隔海叫阵”的情况下,中国车企和特斯拉的下一战已经确定将在机器人领域展开。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">中国车企和特斯拉,为何同时盯上了人形机器人?当下国内汽车行业的内卷式竞争,对战局又将有何影响?</span></p><p label=\"大标题\"><span><span leaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a3404e5159e45b095a66fab6f57b9ca\"/></span></span><span><span leaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cae558b08f74f0a80722c2223bc4eb2\"/></span><span><span leaf=\"\">低投入+高回报预期,让中美车企同时盯上这块蛋糕</span></span><span leaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16b9e73f01ce48e78542aa97f327a03f\"/></span></span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">车企做人形机器人,很难算“跨界”。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">首先,车企人形机器人专门搭建新的研发和制造团队。何小鹏曾表示,“车企70%的技术储备能直接复用到机器人身上。”</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">两者的技术复用度之所以如此之高,原因是在感知、决策、执行三大核心环节,智能汽车和人形机器人的技术架构高度重叠,甚至可以被视为“同一套技术栈的双线部署”。以Optimus机器人为例:</span></p><ul><li><p><span leaf=\"\">感知层,Optimus机器人直接使用了FSD(特斯拉完全自动驾驶)的纯视觉感知方案;</span></p></li><li><p><span leaf=\"\">决策层,两者的算法相似度60%(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002926\">华西证券</a>测算);</span></p></li><li><p><span leaf=\"\">执行层,Cybertruck的线控转向与Optimus关节驱动存在复用。</span></p></li></ul><p><span leaf=\"\">除了软件外,两者在硬件上也有着极高的关联度,比如传感器、芯片、雷达、摄像头等,这进一步推高了供应链重合度。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">中国电动汽车百人会副理事长兼秘书长张永伟认为,在供应链方面,智能汽车与人形机器人的重合度超过了60%(车企纷纷布局的飞行汽车也是同理)。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">同时,在制造方面,两者装配逻辑、质量控制体系等方面也具备一定的通用性。这意味着,车企完全可以将自己过剩的汽车生产线改装成人形机器人生产线,无需再找地建厂。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">如此高的关联度,让汽车不必因拓展人形机器人业务而损耗太多元气。而机器人市场的广阔前景,更是让车企在当下的布局有望变成一个“低成本、高回报”的投资。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>预测,到了2050年,全球机器人销售额达到25万亿美元,是2025年销售额的250倍。而在未来的25年,汽车销量恐怕难有如此规模的增长。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">不只有中国车企和特斯拉外想瓜分这片淘金地。日韩和欧洲车企也在人形领域进行了布局,其中进展最快的是现代汽车。 2021年6月,现代汽车收购了知名人形机器人公司波士顿动力。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">不过在财报电话会上,马斯克并未提及丰田现代们。而在两年前,他曾公开预测,未来全球只有十家车企能存活,分别是九家中国车企和特斯拉。</span></p><p label=\"大标题\"><span><span leaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94466b3beeae40cb941352371eea7ed3\"/></span></span><span><span leaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc73f0af1281409c99608a5f999227d9\"/></span><span><span leaf=\"\">这场仗会怎么打?</span></span><span leaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c044f124dc1b405ca2dd8a4bf93cbc6f\"/></span></span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">从各家车企在机器人量产方面的规划来看,中国车企和特斯拉之间的“机器人战争”极有可能在2027年被点燃。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">在财报电话会上,马斯克表示特斯拉“可能会在几个月内发布Optimus 3。”在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛上,特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克宣布,公司计划于2027年底前向公众销售其Optimus人形机器人。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">在大洋彼岸,奇瑞已经开始交付首款人形机器人“墨茵”(2025年交付量超300台)。同时,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>也计划在2026年年底实现人形机器人的量产。</span></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14181ed2c514c25a7fbe682e3e1705d\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\"><span leaf=\"\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">小鹏汽车</a>人形机器人IRON</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">在这场竞争中,双方各有各的优势</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">得益于长期积累的自动驾驶AI算法和庞大的真实世界数据(数百万辆特斯拉汽车每天采集的端到端驾驶视频数据),特斯拉在技术上实现了领先。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">马斯克在财报电话会上详细解释了自身技术和数据带来的产品优势。目前,人形机器人有三大难点:打造像人手一样灵活的机械手(手是机器人身上最难的部分),其次是现实世界AI,最后是规模化生产。这三点是目前最大的难题,“我认为特斯拉是唯一一家同时具备这三大要素的公司。”</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">面对特斯拉的技术壁垒,中国车企并非没有还手之力。在智能汽车的竞争中,中国车企已经证明了自己的快速迭代和成本控制能力。摩根士丹利曾发布研报表示,中国在人形机器人产业供应链中占据主导地位,占比达到63%,“中国庞大的市场规模正在把人形机器人的制造成本打下来”。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">在这种局面下,谁能吸引到更多更好的人才,谁的获胜概率就更大。何小鹏曾表示,吸引最顶尖人才,是做好人形机器人的关键。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">不过,当下汽车行业的价格战和内卷,一定程度上扯了中国车企招募人才的后腿。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">在线上全员会中,李想在谈及人形机器人业务时表示,公司要招聘这方面最好的人才,要从机器人<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">创业公司</a>那里挖人。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">当下,车企和机器人公司之间的人才流动的确存在。但虎嗅汽车在与多位行业人士交流中发现,这种流动的主要方向却并非从机器人公司流向车企,而是反过来,从车企“逃到”机器人公司。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">车企员工们之所以选择逃离,重要原因之一便是为了躲避内卷。同时,由于汽车和机器人,他们跳槽后的学习和适应成本也比较低。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">与之对比,虽然特斯拉在2025年遭遇了业绩下滑,马斯克形象受损等风波,但这家新能源汽车先行者仍对人才保持了不俗的吸引力。据雇主品牌调研机构Universum调研,在2025年美国最具吸引力雇主排名中,特斯拉位列工程类学生就业选择第九名,是排名最高的汽车制造商(马斯克一直强调特斯拉是AI公司而非汽车公司,不过在2025年,汽车业务的收入仍占公司总收入的73.4%,为696亿美元)。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">从这方面来看,当下的汽车行业内卷,难以对人形机器人业务起到什幺正面作用。好在,中国车企与特斯拉的机器人之战,也并非短时间内便会走到决战时刻。</span></p><p helvetica=\"\" initial=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" start=\"\"><span leaf=\"\">本内容未经允许不得转载。授权事宜请联系 hezuo@huxiu.com。</span></p><p center=\"\" flex=\"\" helvetica=\"\" initial=\"\" medium=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" space-between=\"\" start=\"\"><span helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\"></span><span helvetica=\"\" inline=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" right=\"\"><span leaf=\"\">End</span></span></p><p><strong><em><span leaf=\"\">想涨知识 关注虎嗅视频号!</span></em></strong><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" justify=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"></span></p></div></body></html>","source":"weixin_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中国车企和特斯拉的下一战,战场已定\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/101\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/98669fe7974e42f3976b3db47528792d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">虎嗅APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-01-30 21:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><div><p helvetica=\"\" hidden=\"\" initial=\"\" medium=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" start=\"\"><span helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\"><span leaf=\"\"><img helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1f675b6107e4bafb3a0d9898bc2b3f0\" translatey=\"\"/></span></span><span leaf=\"\"><img helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f79e5ad3fe6a4b75ab9cb874b5ad3a0d\"/></span></p><p helvetica=\"\" hidden=\"\" initial=\"\" linear-gradient=\"\" medium=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" start=\"\"><span leaf=\"\"><img block=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff930a99ccd64c2f9c9c9530aa203a50\"/></span></p><p flex=\"\" flex-end=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\"><span helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" right=\"\"><span leaf=\"\">争夺25万亿美元的市场</span></span></p><p flex=\"\" flex-end=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" nodeleaf=\"\"><img helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d61b60d015419da0977227d76731d8\"/></p><span block=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\"><p><span label=\"备注\"><span leaf=\"\">出品|虎嗅汽车组</span></span></p><p><span label=\"备注\"><span leaf=\"\">作者|王亚骏</span><span leaf=\"\"></span></span></p><p><span label=\"备注\"><span leaf=\"\">头图|<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000681\">视觉中国</a></span></span></p></span><p><span leaf=\"\">在发布了“建设富足非凡世界”的新使命后,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>又用两款旗舰车型,来为这个新使命“祭旗”。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">在Q4财报电话会开场白环节上,特斯拉CEO马斯克表示,是时候让Model S和Model X“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09998\">光荣</a>退役(honorable discharge)”了,这两款特斯拉的功勋车型将于下季度基本停产。</span></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e2bd773b8c04e5bac9b47c3279b5c7b\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\"><span leaf=\"\">Model S/X的成功,为特斯拉走辆车型Model 3/Y带来了研发资金。同时,它们还极大程度上促进了新能源汽车从\"环保政策工具\"向\"大型科技类消费品\"的跃迁。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">原本生产Model S和Model X的弗里蒙特工厂,将改为生产Optimus机器人。这款产品可以视为特斯拉新使命中最为重要的一环,马斯克认为未来特斯拉80%的市值都由Optimus机器人支撑。不过,他的梦想正面临着来自大洋彼岸的威胁。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">在财报电话会上,马斯克直言,中国擅长AI,也擅长制造,在人形机器人领域,特斯拉最大的竞争肯定来自中国。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">从中国车企在人形机器人领域的动作来看,马斯克这番话并非什么“高情商”之语或杞人忧天。目前在国内,不管是新势力还是传统车企,均已在机器人产业进行了布局。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">同时,中国车企的入场步伐也在不断加快。在特斯拉发布财报的三天前,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>开了一次线上全员会,公司CEO李想表示,理想一定会做人形机器人,并会尽快让该产品落地亮相。</span></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f48f0f3ed25845ba9c3d426fed09d3af\"/></p><p><span leaf=\"\">这意味着,在FSD尚未入华、双方智驾战还是“隔海叫阵”的情况下,中国车企和特斯拉的下一战已经确定将在机器人领域展开。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">中国车企和特斯拉,为何同时盯上了人形机器人?当下国内汽车行业的内卷式竞争,对战局又将有何影响?</span></p><p label=\"大标题\"><span><span leaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a3404e5159e45b095a66fab6f57b9ca\"/></span></span><span><span leaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cae558b08f74f0a80722c2223bc4eb2\"/></span><span><span leaf=\"\">低投入+高回报预期,让中美车企同时盯上这块蛋糕</span></span><span leaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16b9e73f01ce48e78542aa97f327a03f\"/></span></span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">车企做人形机器人,很难算“跨界”。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">首先,车企人形机器人专门搭建新的研发和制造团队。何小鹏曾表示,“车企70%的技术储备能直接复用到机器人身上。”</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">两者的技术复用度之所以如此之高,原因是在感知、决策、执行三大核心环节,智能汽车和人形机器人的技术架构高度重叠,甚至可以被视为“同一套技术栈的双线部署”。以Optimus机器人为例:</span></p><ul><li><p><span leaf=\"\">感知层,Optimus机器人直接使用了FSD(特斯拉完全自动驾驶)的纯视觉感知方案;</span></p></li><li><p><span leaf=\"\">决策层,两者的算法相似度60%(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002926\">华西证券</a>测算);</span></p></li><li><p><span leaf=\"\">执行层,Cybertruck的线控转向与Optimus关节驱动存在复用。</span></p></li></ul><p><span leaf=\"\">除了软件外,两者在硬件上也有着极高的关联度,比如传感器、芯片、雷达、摄像头等,这进一步推高了供应链重合度。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">中国电动汽车百人会副理事长兼秘书长张永伟认为,在供应链方面,智能汽车与人形机器人的重合度超过了60%(车企纷纷布局的飞行汽车也是同理)。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">同时,在制造方面,两者装配逻辑、质量控制体系等方面也具备一定的通用性。这意味着,车企完全可以将自己过剩的汽车生产线改装成人形机器人生产线,无需再找地建厂。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">如此高的关联度,让汽车不必因拓展人形机器人业务而损耗太多元气。而机器人市场的广阔前景,更是让车企在当下的布局有望变成一个“低成本、高回报”的投资。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>预测,到了2050年,全球机器人销售额达到25万亿美元,是2025年销售额的250倍。而在未来的25年,汽车销量恐怕难有如此规模的增长。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">不只有中国车企和特斯拉外想瓜分这片淘金地。日韩和欧洲车企也在人形领域进行了布局,其中进展最快的是现代汽车。 2021年6月,现代汽车收购了知名人形机器人公司波士顿动力。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">不过在财报电话会上,马斯克并未提及丰田现代们。而在两年前,他曾公开预测,未来全球只有十家车企能存活,分别是九家中国车企和特斯拉。</span></p><p label=\"大标题\"><span><span leaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94466b3beeae40cb941352371eea7ed3\"/></span></span><span><span leaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc73f0af1281409c99608a5f999227d9\"/></span><span><span leaf=\"\">这场仗会怎么打?</span></span><span leaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c044f124dc1b405ca2dd8a4bf93cbc6f\"/></span></span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">从各家车企在机器人量产方面的规划来看,中国车企和特斯拉之间的“机器人战争”极有可能在2027年被点燃。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">在财报电话会上,马斯克表示特斯拉“可能会在几个月内发布Optimus 3。”在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛上,特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克宣布,公司计划于2027年底前向公众销售其Optimus人形机器人。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">在大洋彼岸,奇瑞已经开始交付首款人形机器人“墨茵”(2025年交付量超300台)。同时,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>也计划在2026年年底实现人形机器人的量产。</span></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14181ed2c514c25a7fbe682e3e1705d\"/></p><p label=\"图片备注\"><span leaf=\"\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">小鹏汽车</a>人形机器人IRON</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">在这场竞争中,双方各有各的优势</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">得益于长期积累的自动驾驶AI算法和庞大的真实世界数据(数百万辆特斯拉汽车每天采集的端到端驾驶视频数据),特斯拉在技术上实现了领先。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">马斯克在财报电话会上详细解释了自身技术和数据带来的产品优势。目前,人形机器人有三大难点:打造像人手一样灵活的机械手(手是机器人身上最难的部分),其次是现实世界AI,最后是规模化生产。这三点是目前最大的难题,“我认为特斯拉是唯一一家同时具备这三大要素的公司。”</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">面对特斯拉的技术壁垒,中国车企并非没有还手之力。在智能汽车的竞争中,中国车企已经证明了自己的快速迭代和成本控制能力。摩根士丹利曾发布研报表示,中国在人形机器人产业供应链中占据主导地位,占比达到63%,“中国庞大的市场规模正在把人形机器人的制造成本打下来”。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">在这种局面下,谁能吸引到更多更好的人才,谁的获胜概率就更大。何小鹏曾表示,吸引最顶尖人才,是做好人形机器人的关键。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">不过,当下汽车行业的价格战和内卷,一定程度上扯了中国车企招募人才的后腿。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">在线上全员会中,李想在谈及人形机器人业务时表示,公司要招聘这方面最好的人才,要从机器人<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">创业公司</a>那里挖人。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">当下,车企和机器人公司之间的人才流动的确存在。但虎嗅汽车在与多位行业人士交流中发现,这种流动的主要方向却并非从机器人公司流向车企,而是反过来,从车企“逃到”机器人公司。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">车企员工们之所以选择逃离,重要原因之一便是为了躲避内卷。同时,由于汽车和机器人,他们跳槽后的学习和适应成本也比较低。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">与之对比,虽然特斯拉在2025年遭遇了业绩下滑,马斯克形象受损等风波,但这家新能源汽车先行者仍对人才保持了不俗的吸引力。据雇主品牌调研机构Universum调研,在2025年美国最具吸引力雇主排名中,特斯拉位列工程类学生就业选择第九名,是排名最高的汽车制造商(马斯克一直强调特斯拉是AI公司而非汽车公司,不过在2025年,汽车业务的收入仍占公司总收入的73.4%,为696亿美元)。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">从这方面来看,当下的汽车行业内卷,难以对人形机器人业务起到什幺正面作用。好在,中国车企与特斯拉的机器人之战,也并非短时间内便会走到决战时刻。</span></p><p helvetica=\"\" initial=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" start=\"\"><span leaf=\"\">本内容未经允许不得转载。授权事宜请联系 hezuo@huxiu.com。</span></p><p center=\"\" flex=\"\" helvetica=\"\" initial=\"\" medium=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" space-between=\"\" start=\"\"><span helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\"></span><span helvetica=\"\" inline=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" right=\"\"><span leaf=\"\">End</span></span></p><p><strong><em><span leaf=\"\">想涨知识 关注虎嗅视频号!</span></em></strong><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" justify=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"></span></p></div></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","LU2360107168.USD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","TSYY":"收益增强TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","LU1232071149.USD":"AZ FUND 1 GLOBAL GROWTH SELECTOR \"AAZ\" 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ETF"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MTQzMjE1NjQwMQ==&mid=2656148788&idx=3&sn=bbef24f2306f09996b3f10a74e272b61&chksm=6701ebd0341e92b7efcc5b2f54c8aa703f0be612e43d8d260850aa7503eed1ce55ff86fe4f84&scene=0#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/ecd74548980bc5b366aa8f4b37ed0bd5","article_id":"2607925025","content_text":"争夺25万亿美元的市场出品|虎嗅汽车组作者|王亚骏头图|视觉中国在发布了“建设富足非凡世界”的新使命后,特斯拉又用两款旗舰车型,来为这个新使命“祭旗”。在Q4财报电话会开场白环节上,特斯拉CEO马斯克表示,是时候让Model S和Model X“光荣退役(honorable discharge)”了,这两款特斯拉的功勋车型将于下季度基本停产。Model S/X的成功,为特斯拉走辆车型Model 3/Y带来了研发资金。同时,它们还极大程度上促进了新能源汽车从\"环保政策工具\"向\"大型科技类消费品\"的跃迁。原本生产Model S和Model X的弗里蒙特工厂,将改为生产Optimus机器人。这款产品可以视为特斯拉新使命中最为重要的一环,马斯克认为未来特斯拉80%的市值都由Optimus机器人支撑。不过,他的梦想正面临着来自大洋彼岸的威胁。在财报电话会上,马斯克直言,中国擅长AI,也擅长制造,在人形机器人领域,特斯拉最大的竞争肯定来自中国。从中国车企在人形机器人领域的动作来看,马斯克这番话并非什么“高情商”之语或杞人忧天。目前在国内,不管是新势力还是传统车企,均已在机器人产业进行了布局。同时,中国车企的入场步伐也在不断加快。在特斯拉发布财报的三天前,理想汽车开了一次线上全员会,公司CEO李想表示,理想一定会做人形机器人,并会尽快让该产品落地亮相。这意味着,在FSD尚未入华、双方智驾战还是“隔海叫阵”的情况下,中国车企和特斯拉的下一战已经确定将在机器人领域展开。中国车企和特斯拉,为何同时盯上了人形机器人?当下国内汽车行业的内卷式竞争,对战局又将有何影响?低投入+高回报预期,让中美车企同时盯上这块蛋糕车企做人形机器人,很难算“跨界”。首先,车企人形机器人专门搭建新的研发和制造团队。何小鹏曾表示,“车企70%的技术储备能直接复用到机器人身上。”两者的技术复用度之所以如此之高,原因是在感知、决策、执行三大核心环节,智能汽车和人形机器人的技术架构高度重叠,甚至可以被视为“同一套技术栈的双线部署”。以Optimus机器人为例:感知层,Optimus机器人直接使用了FSD(特斯拉完全自动驾驶)的纯视觉感知方案;决策层,两者的算法相似度60%(华西证券测算);执行层,Cybertruck的线控转向与Optimus关节驱动存在复用。除了软件外,两者在硬件上也有着极高的关联度,比如传感器、芯片、雷达、摄像头等,这进一步推高了供应链重合度。中国电动汽车百人会副理事长兼秘书长张永伟认为,在供应链方面,智能汽车与人形机器人的重合度超过了60%(车企纷纷布局的飞行汽车也是同理)。同时,在制造方面,两者装配逻辑、质量控制体系等方面也具备一定的通用性。这意味着,车企完全可以将自己过剩的汽车生产线改装成人形机器人生产线,无需再找地建厂。如此高的关联度,让汽车不必因拓展人形机器人业务而损耗太多元气。而机器人市场的广阔前景,更是让车企在当下的布局有望变成一个“低成本、高回报”的投资。据摩根士丹利预测,到了2050年,全球机器人销售额达到25万亿美元,是2025年销售额的250倍。而在未来的25年,汽车销量恐怕难有如此规模的增长。不只有中国车企和特斯拉外想瓜分这片淘金地。日韩和欧洲车企也在人形领域进行了布局,其中进展最快的是现代汽车。 2021年6月,现代汽车收购了知名人形机器人公司波士顿动力。不过在财报电话会上,马斯克并未提及丰田现代们。而在两年前,他曾公开预测,未来全球只有十家车企能存活,分别是九家中国车企和特斯拉。这场仗会怎么打?从各家车企在机器人量产方面的规划来看,中国车企和特斯拉之间的“机器人战争”极有可能在2027年被点燃。在财报电话会上,马斯克表示特斯拉“可能会在几个月内发布Optimus 3。”在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛上,特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克宣布,公司计划于2027年底前向公众销售其Optimus人形机器人。在大洋彼岸,奇瑞已经开始交付首款人形机器人“墨茵”(2025年交付量超300台)。同时,小鹏汽车也计划在2026年年底实现人形机器人的量产。小鹏汽车人形机器人IRON在这场竞争中,双方各有各的优势得益于长期积累的自动驾驶AI算法和庞大的真实世界数据(数百万辆特斯拉汽车每天采集的端到端驾驶视频数据),特斯拉在技术上实现了领先。马斯克在财报电话会上详细解释了自身技术和数据带来的产品优势。目前,人形机器人有三大难点:打造像人手一样灵活的机械手(手是机器人身上最难的部分),其次是现实世界AI,最后是规模化生产。这三点是目前最大的难题,“我认为特斯拉是唯一一家同时具备这三大要素的公司。”面对特斯拉的技术壁垒,中国车企并非没有还手之力。在智能汽车的竞争中,中国车企已经证明了自己的快速迭代和成本控制能力。摩根士丹利曾发布研报表示,中国在人形机器人产业供应链中占据主导地位,占比达到63%,“中国庞大的市场规模正在把人形机器人的制造成本打下来”。在这种局面下,谁能吸引到更多更好的人才,谁的获胜概率就更大。何小鹏曾表示,吸引最顶尖人才,是做好人形机器人的关键。不过,当下汽车行业的价格战和内卷,一定程度上扯了中国车企招募人才的后腿。在线上全员会中,李想在谈及人形机器人业务时表示,公司要招聘这方面最好的人才,要从机器人创业公司那里挖人。当下,车企和机器人公司之间的人才流动的确存在。但虎嗅汽车在与多位行业人士交流中发现,这种流动的主要方向却并非从机器人公司流向车企,而是反过来,从车企“逃到”机器人公司。车企员工们之所以选择逃离,重要原因之一便是为了躲避内卷。同时,由于汽车和机器人,他们跳槽后的学习和适应成本也比较低。与之对比,虽然特斯拉在2025年遭遇了业绩下滑,马斯克形象受损等风波,但这家新能源汽车先行者仍对人才保持了不俗的吸引力。据雇主品牌调研机构Universum调研,在2025年美国最具吸引力雇主排名中,特斯拉位列工程类学生就业选择第九名,是排名最高的汽车制造商(马斯克一直强调特斯拉是AI公司而非汽车公司,不过在2025年,汽车业务的收入仍占公司总收入的73.4%,为696亿美元)。从这方面来看,当下的汽车行业内卷,难以对人形机器人业务起到什幺正面作用。好在,中国车企与特斯拉的机器人之战,也并非短时间内便会走到决战时刻。本内容未经允许不得转载。授权事宜请联系 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