t5165
01-13
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@期权小班长：
东升，西落？
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<a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> </p><p>本周五1月月权到期日，海量期权到期，本着杀最大量看涨看跌未平仓的原则，英伟达股价会趋向于回调，目前看到170。</p><p>机构本周套利策略是sell call188 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20260116 188.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020260116%20188.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20260116 188.0 CALL$</a> ，对冲buy call193 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20260116 193.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020260116%20193.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20260116 193.0 CALL$</a> 。</p><p>预期回调价格最低看到150，我想了一下，可能是因为deepseek会在春节发布V4版本，不过我不认为这次发布会对英伟达股价造成严重冲击。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b41033af8930d40afba82c5e73283f2d\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"1058\"></p><p>根据未平仓排序来看，本周到期200call 未平仓有16万手排名第一，160put有8万手排名第二。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b05b0eab9aa84d332d24757414c4a13\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"994\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"特斯拉\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> </p><p>比较尴尬，有人在周五卖了平价call445 <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20260116 445.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020260116%20445.0%20CALL\">$TSLA 20260116 445.0 CALL$</a> ，开仓1.2万手，然后就被逼空了。</p><p>机构比较严谨的选择了sell 457.5<a data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20260116 457.5 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020260116%20457.5%20CALL\">$TSLA 20260116 457.5 CALL$</a> ，对冲<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20260116 477.5 CALL\">$TSLA 20260116 477.5 CALL$ </a> 。</p><p>本周大概率在420～470之间震荡，450这个价格好像两边都可以做空，但我目前更倾向于sell put 420。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2d7558f70808933f961d1972c9e1978\" tg-width=\"1044\" tg-height=\"994\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"SPY\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"标普500ETF\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a> </p><p>原本预期1月份有小幅回调，不知道为何无了，趋势继续向上，取而代之是下注闪崩概率提升。有可能是怕特朗普地缘政治强硬姿态做的太过了给自己玩进去。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/216dbf307e95010cd65a4b50e942b279\" tg-width=\"1044\" tg-height=\"1120\"></p><p>从未平仓来看本周spy本来应该很难涨超700，但如果A股本周发力大涨，美股反而跌了，那华尔街岂不是很丢面子？</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb0fe35ae8b5311c9cfeaea83458e4b0\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"676\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"INTC\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英特尔\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$</a> </p><p>到了45这个位置分歧非常大，有不少看涨期权进行了平仓，但这可能并不意味着就又要回调了。很多平仓期权都是1月份到期的，赶紧趁暴涨解套，从来没见过这么良善的老庄。</p><p>上周开仓的看涨期权大单60call <a data-mention-id=\"INTC 20260618 60.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"INTC\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/INTC%2020260618%2060.0%20CALL\">$INTC 20260618 60.0 CALL$</a> 尚未平仓。</p><p>不过就算趋势再好，本周应该很难突破50，因为本周到期50call未平仓有10.8万手。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d9e9b1bb9a0a76fa6ef497f3cc013cd\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"962\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"MU\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"美光科技\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$</a> </p><p>对于美光而言未平仓数据无法限制股价，看涨和看跌态度都非常鲜明。虽然继续看涨，但这个位置不会有看涨大单再下重注，可以关注回调。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/671138829706a7ef680946e335921309\" tg-width=\"1044\" tg-height=\"868\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"TSM\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"台积电\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a> </p><p>本周做空波动率的好标的！预计很难创新高，但也很难跌。</p><p>看涨期权开仓买入末日价内call315 <a data-mention-id=\"TSM 20260116 315.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM%2020260116%20315.0%20CALL\">$TSM 20260116 315.0 CALL$</a> ，价内call大家都懂，不太容易上涨。sell put大单是sell put<a data-mention-id=\"TSM 20260320 320.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM%2020260320%20320.0%20PUT\">$TSM 20260320 320.0 PUT$</a> ，上次的sell put大单又追加仓位了。所以总体来看股价会围绕320震荡。</p><p>胆大的sell put310 <a data-mention-id=\"TSM 20260116 310.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM%2020260116%20310.0%20PUT\">$TSM 20260116 310.0 PUT$</a> ，300以下sell put都随意。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63814aeb7dd08811216f85f34101c12b\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"672\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"BABA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"阿里巴巴\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> </p><p>170有buy call大单<a data-mention-id=\"BABA 20260320 170.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"BABA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA%2020260320%20170.0%20CALL\">$BABA 20260320 170.0 CALL$</a> ，很合理，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/518903564362512\" title=\"毕竟kweb看涨到40\" target=\"_blank\">毕竟kweb看涨到40</a>，阿里肯定有相对应的涨幅。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9f020235ea35a887f40af43ae212679\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"704\"></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> </p><p>本周五1月月权到期日，海量期权到期，本着杀最大量看涨看跌未平仓的原则，英伟达股价会趋向于回调，目前看到170。</p><p>机构本周套利策略是sell call188 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20260116 188.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020260116%20188.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20260116 188.0 CALL$</a> ，对冲buy call193 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20260116 193.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020260116%20193.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20260116 193.0 CALL$</a> 。</p><p>预期回调价格最低看到150，我想了一下，可能是因为deepseek会在春节发布V4版本，不过我不认为这次发布会对英伟达股价造成严重冲击。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b41033af8930d40afba82c5e73283f2d\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"1058\"></p><p>根据未平仓排序来看，本周到期200call 未平仓有16万手排名第一，160put有8万手排名第二。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b05b0eab9aa84d332d24757414c4a13\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"994\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"特斯拉\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> </p><p>比较尴尬，有人在周五卖了平价call445 <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20260116 445.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020260116%20445.0%20CALL\">$TSLA 20260116 445.0 CALL$</a> ，开仓1.2万手，然后就被逼空了。</p><p>机构比较严谨的选择了sell 457.5<a data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20260116 457.5 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020260116%20457.5%20CALL\">$TSLA 20260116 457.5 CALL$</a> ，对冲<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20260116 477.5 CALL\">$TSLA 20260116 477.5 CALL$ </a> 。</p><p>本周大概率在420～470之间震荡，450这个价格好像两边都可以做空，但我目前更倾向于sell put 420。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2d7558f70808933f961d1972c9e1978\" tg-width=\"1044\" tg-height=\"994\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"SPY\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"标普500ETF\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a> </p><p>原本预期1月份有小幅回调，不知道为何无了，趋势继续向上，取而代之是下注闪崩概率提升。有可能是怕特朗普地缘政治强硬姿态做的太过了给自己玩进去。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/216dbf307e95010cd65a4b50e942b279\" tg-width=\"1044\" tg-height=\"1120\"></p><p>从未平仓来看本周spy本来应该很难涨超700，但如果A股本周发力大涨，美股反而跌了，那华尔街岂不是很丢面子？</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb0fe35ae8b5311c9cfeaea83458e4b0\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"676\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"INTC\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英特尔\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$</a> </p><p>到了45这个位置分歧非常大，有不少看涨期权进行了平仓，但这可能并不意味着就又要回调了。很多平仓期权都是1月份到期的，赶紧趁暴涨解套，从来没见过这么良善的老庄。</p><p>上周开仓的看涨期权大单60call <a data-mention-id=\"INTC 20260618 60.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"INTC\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/INTC%2020260618%2060.0%20CALL\">$INTC 20260618 60.0 CALL$</a> 尚未平仓。</p><p>不过就算趋势再好，本周应该很难突破50，因为本周到期50call未平仓有10.8万手。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d9e9b1bb9a0a76fa6ef497f3cc013cd\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"962\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"MU\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"美光科技\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$</a> </p><p>对于美光而言未平仓数据无法限制股价，看涨和看跌态度都非常鲜明。虽然继续看涨，但这个位置不会有看涨大单再下重注，可以关注回调。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/671138829706a7ef680946e335921309\" tg-width=\"1044\" tg-height=\"868\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"TSM\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"台积电\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a> </p><p>本周做空波动率的好标的！预计很难创新高，但也很难跌。</p><p>看涨期权开仓买入末日价内call315 <a data-mention-id=\"TSM 20260116 315.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM%2020260116%20315.0%20CALL\">$TSM 20260116 315.0 CALL$</a> ，价内call大家都懂，不太容易上涨。sell put大单是sell put<a data-mention-id=\"TSM 20260320 320.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM%2020260320%20320.0%20PUT\">$TSM 20260320 320.0 PUT$</a> ，上次的sell put大单又追加仓位了。所以总体来看股价会围绕320震荡。</p><p>胆大的sell put310 <a data-mention-id=\"TSM 20260116 310.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM%2020260116%20310.0%20PUT\">$TSM 20260116 310.0 PUT$</a> ，300以下sell put都随意。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63814aeb7dd08811216f85f34101c12b\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"672\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"BABA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"阿里巴巴\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> </p><p>170有buy call大单<a data-mention-id=\"BABA 20260320 170.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"BABA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA%2020260320%20170.0%20CALL\">$BABA 20260320 170.0 CALL$</a> ，很合理，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/518903564362512\" title=\"毕竟kweb看涨到40\" target=\"_blank\">毕竟kweb看涨到40</a>，阿里肯定有相对应的涨幅。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9f020235ea35a887f40af43ae212679\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"704\"></p></body></html>","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 本周五1月月权到期日，海量期权到期，本着杀最大量看涨看跌未平仓的原则，英伟达股价会趋向于回调，目前看到170。 机构本周套利策略是sell call188 $NVDA 20260116 188.0 CALL$ ，对冲buy call193 $NVDA 20260116 193.0 CALL$ 。 预期回调价格最低看到150，我想了一下，可能是因为deepseek会在春节发布V4版本，不过我不认为这次发布会对英伟达股价造成严重冲击。 根据未平仓排序来看，本周到期200call 未平仓有16万手排名第一，160put有8万手排名第二。 $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 比较尴尬，有人在周五卖了平价call445 $TSLA 20260116 445.0 CALL$ ，开仓1.2万手，然后就被逼空了。 机构比较严谨的选择了sell 457.5$TSLA 20260116 457.5 CALL$ ，对冲$TSLA 20260116 477.5 CALL$ 。 本周大概率在420～470之间震荡，450这个价格好像两边都可以做空，但我目前更倾向于sell put 420。 $标普500ETF(SPY)$ 原本预期1月份有小幅回调，不知道为何无了，趋势继续向上，取而代之是下注闪崩概率提升。有可能是怕特朗普地缘政治强硬姿态做的太过了给自己玩进去。 从未平仓来看本周spy本来应该很难涨超700，但如果A股本周发力大涨，美股反而跌了，那华尔街岂不是很丢面子？ $英特尔(INTC)$ 到了45这个位置分歧非常大，有不少看涨期权进行了平仓，但这可能并不意味着就又要回调了。很多平仓期权都是1月份到期的，赶紧趁暴涨解套，从来没见过这么良善的老庄。 上周开仓的看涨期权大单60call $INTC 20260618 60.0 CALL$ 尚未平仓。 不过就算趋势再好，本周应该很难突破50，因为本周到期50call未平仓有10.8万手。 $美光科技(MU)$ 对于美光而言未平仓数据无法限制股价，看涨和看跌态度都非常鲜明。虽然继续看涨，但这个位置不会有看涨大单再下重注，可以关注回调。 $台积电(TSM)$ 本周做空波动率的好标的！预计很难创新高，但也很难跌。 看涨期权开仓买入末日价内call315 $TSM 20260116 315.0 CALL$ ，价内call大家都懂，不太容易上涨。sell put大单是sell put$TSM 20260320 320.0 PUT$ ，上次的sell put大单又追加仓位了。所以总体来看股价会围绕320震荡。 胆大的sell put310 $TSM 20260116 310.0 PUT$ ，300以下sell put都随意。 $阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 170有buy call大单$BABA 20260320 170.0 CALL$ ，很合理，毕竟kweb看涨到40，阿里肯定有相对应的涨幅。","highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/521016142823424","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["NVDA","BABA","MU","TSM","INTC","TSLA","SPY","INTC 20260618 60.0 CALL","TSM 20260320 320.0 PUT","BABA 20260320 170.0 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