NetEase 3Q25: The Market Is Sleeping on a 25% Deferred Revenue Spike — 2026 Could Surprise Everyone

SG Visual Research 图解研报

$网易(NTES)$

$网易-S(09999)$

NetEase’s 3Q25 looked “fine” at first glance —

but one number changes everything:

🔥 Deferred revenue +25% YoY

This is future profit already locked in and waiting to be recognized.

If you follow China gaming, you know:

Deferred revenue spikes → earnings beat in the next 1–2 quarters.

And the setup looks strong:

🎮 PC games +33% YoY after Blizzard’s return

📱 Mobile still growing with legacy blockbusters + new momentum

🚀 A loaded 2026 pipeline:

Forgotten Seas, Unbounded, Starry Abyss, Returning Tang —

multiple titles capable of becoming annual hits.

Profitability is inflecting too:

Non-GAAP NP +26.7% YoY

Youdao: 5th consecutive profitable quarter

Cloud Music: stable users, expanding library

Analysts remain BUY with TP US$165 / HK$256 —

but if the deferred revenue turns into real profit faster than expected,

2026 earnings may catch the market completely off guard.

So the real question:

Is NTES a stealth earnings story hiding in plain sight?

网易2025年第三季度财报发布，营收283.6亿元

网易发布2025年第三季度财报，营收283.6亿元人民币，毛利182亿元，在线游戏服务净收入233亿元，非公认会计准则净利润95亿元，研发投入45亿元。

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