大空头时隔4年卷土重来！做空特斯拉，这次你支持他吗？

小虎AV

2025-12-02

悬赏1000虎币

Michael Burry：特斯拉被“荒谬得高估”(ridiculously overvalued)了。

Michael Burry 12月1日发帖称正在做空特斯拉的股票（上个月刚披露做空了英伟达和Palantir），除了估值，他还认为马斯克的1万亿美元的薪酬方案将进一步稀释特斯拉的股票。

时隔4年，Burry再次做空特斯拉，上次押注失败，被迫平仓，这次大家觉得他能成功吗？你是特斯拉多头or空头？

评论区分享你的观点，一起赢取虎币奖励！ $特斯拉(TSLA)$

“木头姐”开始押注！特斯拉现在能否上车？

近期，马斯克旗下SpaceX与xAI 合并一事备受关注。作为特斯拉最坚定的多头之一，凯茜•伍德（Cathie Wood）近期的一项不同寻常的投资决策引发关注：旗下太空ETF首度买进特斯拉股票——上周三，ARK太空与国防创新ETF（ARKX）买入了35766股特斯拉股票，约占该基金投资组合的1.99%。【大家觉得是否现在是买进的好时机？】

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

悬赏已结束

515虎币已分给18位参与者,剩余485虎币已退还至发起者

截止至12/23 14:34

精彩评论

牛牛牛豆腐干豆腐
2025-12-02
牛牛牛豆腐干豆腐
赢得30虎币
不能成功，特斯拉已经成为一家世界型企业，难以被个人预测
Johnsonk
2025-12-02
Johnsonk
赢得30虎币
狗不牵绳乱吠必然会被抓走
别打扰我的发财梦
2025-12-02
别打扰我的发财梦
赢得30虎币
一般说空的确会涨好几天然后突然下滑，说涨也是一样特斯拉都是这个套路还是小心为妙
呀呀雅
2025-12-02
呀呀雅
赢得30虎币
不支持
躺平躺到地狱了
2025-12-03
躺平躺到地狱了
赢得30虎币
做空美国大科技，一般情况下失败的概率是很高的，不支持做空特斯拉股票
阿呆宝
2025-12-03
阿呆宝
赢得30虎币

支持Burry的五大理由：

1. 估值与基本面严重背离：271倍PE对应37%利润下滑，任何DCF模型都难以支撑当前市值

2. 股权稀释黑洞：马斯克薪酬方案+常规股权激励，每年3.6%+稀释率，5年将吞噬约20%股东权益

3. 竞争壁垒瓦解：中国品牌崛起(比亚迪、蔚来等)，欧洲传统车企加速电动化，特斯拉性价比优势消失

4. 增长引擎熄火：

◦ FSD商业化远低于预期，难改"软件收入杯水车薪"现状

◦ Optimus推迟至2026年底，短期难贡献利润

◦ 汽车销量增速放缓，价格战侵蚀利润

5. 马斯克风险溢价：多线作战(SpaceX、X平台)分散精力，个人政治言论增加公司风险

投资建议：

• 激进型投资者：可考虑做空(期权或融券)，目标价250-300美元(对应市值8000-1万亿)

• 稳健型投资者：减持特斯拉，转向估值合理的传统车企(丰田、大众等PE约8-15倍)或其他AI/科技龙头

• 保守型投资者：完全回避，当前价位风险收益比严重失衡

关键观察点：

• 2025年Q4财报：若利润继续下滑，估值将进一步承压

• 马斯克薪酬方案实施细节：稀释程度可能超预期

• FSD和Optimus进展：若再推迟，市场幻想将彻底破灭

结论：Burry这次做空胜算显著高于2021年，特斯拉估值泡沫终将刺破。在基本面持续恶化、股权稀释加剧的双重打击下，看空特斯拉，胜率大于70%。

发表看法

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\n \n \n \n支持Burry的五大理由： \n \n \n \n1. 估值与基本面严重背离：271倍PE对应37%利润下滑，任何DCF模型都难以支撑当前市值 \n \n \n \n2. 股权稀释黑洞：马斯克薪酬方案+常规股权激励，每年3.6%+稀释率，5年将吞噬约20%股东权益 \n \n \n \n3. 竞争壁垒瓦解：中国品牌崛起(比亚迪、蔚来等)，欧洲传统车企加速电动化，特斯拉性价比优势消失 \n \n \n \n4. 增长引擎熄火： \n \n \n \n◦ FSD商业化远低于预期，难改\"软件收入杯水车薪\"现状 \n \n \n \n◦ Optimus推迟至2026年底，短期难贡献利润 \n \n \n \n◦ 汽车销量增速放缓，价格战侵蚀利润 \n \n \n \n5. 马斯克风险溢价：多线作战(SpaceX、X平台)分散精力，个人政治言论增加公司风险 \n \n \n \n投资建议： \n \n \n \n• 激进型投资者：可考虑做空(期权或融券)，目标价250-300美元(对应市值8000-1万亿) \n \n \n \n• 稳健型投资者：减持特斯拉，转向估值合理的传统车企(丰田、大众等PE约8-15倍)或其他AI/科技龙头 \n \n \n \n• 保守型投资者：完全回避，当前价位风险收益比严重失衡 \n \n \n \n关键观察点： \n \n \n \n• 2025年Q4财报：若利润继续下滑，估值将进一步承压 \n \n \n \n• 马斯克薪酬方案实施细节：稀释程度可能超预期 \n \n \n \n• FSD和Optimus进展：若再推迟，市场幻想将彻底破灭 \n \n \n \n结论：Burry这次做空胜算显著高于2021年，特斯拉估值泡沫终将刺破。在基本面持续恶化、股权稀释加剧的双重打击下，看空特斯拉，胜率大于70%。","text":" \n \n \n \n支持Burry的五大理由： \n \n \n \n1. 估值与基本面严重背离：271倍PE对应37%利润下滑，任何DCF模型都难以支撑当前市值 \n \n \n \n2. 股权稀释黑洞：马斯克薪酬方案+常规股权激励，每年3.6%+稀释率，5年将吞噬约20%股东权益 \n \n \n \n3. 竞争壁垒瓦解：中国品牌崛起(比亚迪、蔚来等)，欧洲传统车企加速电动化，特斯拉性价比优势消失 \n \n \n \n4. 增长引擎熄火： \n \n \n \n◦ FSD商业化远低于预期，难改\"软件收入杯水车薪\"现状 \n \n \n \n◦ Optimus推迟至2026年底，短期难贡献利润 \n \n \n \n◦ 汽车销量增速放缓，价格战侵蚀利润 \n \n \n \n5. 马斯克风险溢价：多线作战(SpaceX、X平台)分散精力，个人政治言论增加公司风险 \n \n \n \n投资建议： \n \n \n \n• 激进型投资者：可考虑做空(期权或融券)，目标价250-300美元(对应市值8000-1万亿) \n \n \n \n• 稳健型投资者：减持特斯拉，转向估值合理的传统车企(丰田、大众等PE约8-15倍)或其他AI/科技龙头 \n \n \n \n• 保守型投资者：完全回避，当前价位风险收益比严重失衡 \n \n \n \n关键观察点： \n \n \n \n• 2025年Q4财报：若利润继续下滑，估值将进一步承压 \n \n \n \n• 马斯克薪酬方案实施细节：稀释程度可能超预期 \n \n \n \n• FSD和Optimus进展：若再推迟，市场幻想将彻底破灭 \n \n \n \n结论：Burry这次做空胜算显著高于2021年，特斯拉估值泡沫终将刺破。在基本面持续恶化、股权稀释加剧的双重打击下，看空特斯拉，胜率大于70%。","html":" \n \n \n \n支持Burry的五大理由： \n \n \n \n1. 估值与基本面严重背离：271倍PE对应37%利润下滑，任何DCF模型都难以支撑当前市值 \n \n \n \n2. 股权稀释黑洞：马斯克薪酬方案+常规股权激励，每年3.6%+稀释率，5年将吞噬约20%股东权益 \n \n \n \n3. 竞争壁垒瓦解：中国品牌崛起(比亚迪、蔚来等)，欧洲传统车企加速电动化，特斯拉性价比优势消失 \n \n \n \n4. 增长引擎熄火： \n \n \n \n◦ FSD商业化远低于预期，难改\"软件收入杯水车薪\"现状 \n \n \n \n◦ Optimus推迟至2026年底，短期难贡献利润 \n \n \n \n◦ 汽车销量增速放缓，价格战侵蚀利润 \n \n \n \n5. 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