悟空的花果山
2025-11-05
回调两周正好 nvda 财报
@期权小班长：
特朗普小儿子做空QQQ，大空头做空NVDA和PLTR是怎么回事
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
1
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":496812161437776,"tweetId":"496812161437776","gmtCreate":1762314965454,"gmtModify":1762314967731,"author":{"id":3441692941897723,"idStr":"3441692941897723","authorId":3441692941897723,"authorIdStr":"3441692941897723","name":"悟空的花果山","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/628f19802db29c1c1a827452d3fe4cb3","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.05.02","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":261,"starInvestorFlag":true,"fullDisclosureFlag":false,"starInvestorFollowerNum":196,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":294,"userFollowInvestorFlag":false,"orderNotificationFlag":false,"ror":101.95,"showRor":true,"investmentPhilosophy":"AI多头","winRationPercentage":60.679612,"tradeVolumeEst":0},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"html":"<html><head></head><body>回调两周正好 nvda 财报</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>回调两周正好 nvda 财报</body></html>","text":"回调两周正好 nvda 财报","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/496812161437776","repostId":496665273475336,"repostType":1,"repost":{"magic":2,"id":496665273475336,"tweetId":"496665273475336","gmtCreate":1762264341726,"gmtModify":1762264447534,"author":{"id":3527667590215376,"idStr":"3527667590215376","authorId":3527667590215376,"authorIdStr":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","vip":2,"userType":2,"introduction":"最简单的期权策略实践者","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"99ab5418acee46419c22b9c7ac12257b-1","templateUuid":"99ab5418acee46419c22b9c7ac12257b","name":"月度最佳创作者","description":"每月精华帖数量及质量位于社区TOP3的创作者","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0cad6192443c33dca826a001250fbd4","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ccd98c646815ce7610b0df338e060cc","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.03.02","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[{"badgeId":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd-1","templateUuid":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd","name":"星级创作者","description":"累计发表精华帖>=3（或有料帖>=10），且30天内发表过至少一篇精华帖（或4篇有料帖）并参与过评论","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.laohu8.com/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.01.08","individualDisplayEnabled":1,"backgroundColor":{"dark":"#675a37","tint":"#f9ebc2"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#ffffff","tint":"#ab7a0e"}}],"fanSize":36773,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[{"themeId":"bc6e8e4b405b43429905237d8c15ff4c","categoryId":"20b8d1944bae4805b371322c2ab986d4","name":"期权Q&A：期权知识，你问我答","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":bc6e8e4b405b43429905237d8c15ff4c}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"你想知道的期权知识都在这里，咨询期权问题@期权小助手","image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/672d6bc9cf055ebef009d5ee69bfef82"}],"images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9daf31e202c31e4f952ee81b01b04935","width":"1290","height":"232"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/816c5de3215f061858b584f574f48409","width":"1206","height":"2622"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7f16154597f2a935896712327ef8ac2","width":"1996","height":"1434"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f817e2da18f8eba36816f6ab2f27a8","width":"1042","height":"1056"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/201c99434209e1938c170b612dda7d70","width":"1280","height":"1247"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6fda019563f988464a5acc0c5903e93","width":"1206","height":"2177"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c76d3f311e94b40ea98863a78ecc6bf","width":"1206","height":"2145"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67d1ba2e1607336b2793db3409e96e9a","width":"2484","height":"156"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7125c5d76422f3e782b370adb2060eb9","width":"1040","height":"898"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9258d740a0f953d275202e15857efe33","width":"1038","height":"1058"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f850dd87e2e2e550fe056be6f2a08ed","width":"2484","height":"148"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52f7005b5948d1aa1ed7a1d90798a834","width":"2480","height":"208"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c93409e9e6ec4e5ce128dd5685669489","width":"2482","height":"150"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9daf31e202c31e4f952ee81b01b04935","width":"1290","height":"232"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/816c5de3215f061858b584f574f48409","width":"1206","height":"2622"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7f16154597f2a935896712327ef8ac2","width":"1996","height":"1434"}],"title":"特朗普小儿子做空QQQ，大空头做空NVDA和PLTR是怎么回事","html":"<html><head></head><body><p> <a data-mention-id=\"QQQ\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"纳指100ETF\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$</a> </p><p>下午有这么一条消息，说特朗普的小儿子于11月3日买入了2万多手QQQ的570put <a data-mention-id=\"QQQ 20251231 570.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"QQQ\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/QQQ%2020251231%20570.0%20PUT\">$QQQ 20251231 570.0 PUT$</a> ，价值约1090万美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9daf31e202c31e4f952ee81b01b04935\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"232\"></p><p>这笔交易清晰的记录在行情图上，因为极度价外期权交易需求不大，所以很确定那一根成交量柱子就是巴伦干的。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/816c5de3215f061858b584f574f48409\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"2622\"></p><p>回调570是个什么概念，市场整体大约回调10%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7f16154597f2a935896712327ef8ac2\" tg-width=\"1996\" tg-height=\"1434\"></p><p>对于巴伦这笔交易的原因，大家有很多猜测。此前市场有一些传言，说巴伦有一个炒股群，入门门槛是100万美元。此前也有过一些战绩，但均配合特朗普政策进行交易。</p><p>也就是说，巴伦操作常常匹配政策出货，那么推断这次看空可能也是一样的情况。问题就在这儿，从这次谈判来看特朗普变得很务实，不太像能继续喊口号做空的样子。那这次做空判断来自哪里就很有意思了。</p><p>有意思的是10月31日周五QQQ的期权开仓，可以看到有目标指向570的做空。一个是单腿买入看跌 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/QQQ 20260116 560.0 PUT\">$QQQ 20260116 560.0 PUT$ </a> 。</p><p>另一个是比率看跌价差买入640put <a data-mention-id=\"QQQ 20260320 640.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"QQQ\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/QQQ%2020260320%20640.0%20CALL\">$QQQ 20260320 640.0 CALL$</a> 卖出3倍570put对冲 <a data-mention-id=\"QQQ 20260320 570.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"QQQ\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/QQQ%2020260320%20570.0%20PUT\">$QQQ 20260320 570.0 PUT$</a> 。这个策略充分说明看空者并不预期会跌到570。</p><p>那么目标价是哪里呢，看跌最大开仓是12月到期600put <a data-mention-id=\"QQQ 20251219 600.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"QQQ\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/QQQ%2020251219%20600.0%20PUT\">$QQQ 20251219 600.0 PUT$</a> ，开仓3万手，大约是5%回调，也就是回调到本次谈判前市场的位置。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f817e2da18f8eba36816f6ab2f27a8\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"1056\"></p><p>另外有意思的是，同日大空头michael burry<strong><u>提前两周披露</u></strong>三季13f持仓，如图，做空 <a data-mention-id=\"PLTR\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Palantir Technologies Inc.\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a> 和 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> 。前者空头仓位达到9.12亿，后者仓位达到1.86亿。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/201c99434209e1938c170b612dda7d70\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1247\"></p><p>我画了重点，提前两周公布，那么合理推断是两周后就跌完了，不过一般来说美股跌起来也很快就是了。</p><p>如果是两周跌完，考虑一下时间可以算在11月底前完成回调，那么比较极限的期权到期日选择在12月合适。</p><p>重点是近期PLTR和NVDA真有12月到期的看跌期权开仓：</p><p>nvda是12月到期200put <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20251219 200.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020251219%20200.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20251219 200.0 PUT$</a> ，近期密集开仓，1.9万手未平仓中有1.3万手是近期开仓。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6fda019563f988464a5acc0c5903e93\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"2177\"></p><p>PLTR是12月到期180put <a data-mention-id=\"PLTR 20251219 180.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"PLTR\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PLTR%2020251219%20180.0%20PUT\">$PLTR 20251219 180.0 PUT$</a> ，如图也是近期密集开仓，1.7万手未平仓中有1.3万手未平仓是近期开仓。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c76d3f311e94b40ea98863a78ecc6bf\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"2145\"></p><p>我猜这两张期权可能属于空单的一部分，不是全部，不过可以从近期期权一窥做空目标价，可能大空头的目标也是回到谈判前的价位。</p><p>所以总体来看本次回调，spy回到665，当然不排除恐慌助攻进一步回调至650。其他股票回调位置大概相似。总之就是我之前说的，没有回调空间，创造回调空间。</p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"AMD\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"美国超微公司\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$</a> </p><p>我之前认为AMD财报应该会反应平平，但目前来看会领先回调。</p><p>周一开仓了两个本周看跌期权230put <a data-mention-id=\"AMD 20251107 230.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AMD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD%2020251107%20230.0%20PUT\">$AMD 20251107 230.0 PUT$</a> 和240put <a data-mention-id=\"AMD 20251107 240.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AMD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD%2020251107%20240.0%20PUT\">$AMD 20251107 240.0 PUT$</a> ，都是单腿看跌，分别开仓1.24万手和1.16万手，成交额约250万和约500万，这个数量级的末日开仓，已经不必做做多的打算了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67d1ba2e1607336b2793db3409e96e9a\" tg-width=\"2484\" tg-height=\"156\"></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7125c5d76422f3e782b370adb2060eb9\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"898\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> </p><p>NVDA要说看跌期权有什么异常的话，就是本周到期看跌开仓前排数量过多，有种向下逼空即视感。</p><p>考虑跟随大盘可能回调180，但感觉概率比较低。180也是比较安全的价位了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9258d740a0f953d275202e15857efe33\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"1058\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"特斯拉\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> </p><p>long call roll仓，从11月415call <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20251121 415.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020251121%20415.0%20CALL\">$TSLA 20251121 415.0 CALL$</a> roll到明年1月470call <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20260116 470.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020260116%20470.0%20CALL\">$TSLA 20260116 470.0 CALL$</a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f850dd87e2e2e550fe056be6f2a08ed\" tg-width=\"2484\" tg-height=\"148\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"AMZN\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"亚马逊\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a> </p><p>long call roll仓，从11月210call <a data-mention-id=\"AMZN 20251121 210.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AMZN\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN%2020251121%20210.0%20CALL\">$AMZN 20251121 210.0 CALL$</a> roll到明年2月到期220call <a data-mention-id=\"AMZN 20260220 220.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AMZN\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN%2020260220%20220.0%20CALL\">$AMZN 20260220 220.0 CALL$</a> ，需要注意低于股价，机构非常保守，预期不高。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52f7005b5948d1aa1ed7a1d90798a834\" tg-width=\"2480\" tg-height=\"208\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"META\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Meta Platforms, Inc.\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$</a> </p><p>meta财报后进行了一次roll仓，从700 <a data-mention-id=\"META 20251121 700.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"META\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/META%2020251121%20700.0%20CALL\">$META 20251121 700.0 CALL$</a> roll到640 <a data-mention-id=\"META 20260116 640.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"META\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/META%2020260116%20640.0%20CALL\">$META 20260116 640.0 CALL$</a> </p><p>不过大盘情况突然恶化导致再次roll仓，从1月到期640 <a data-mention-id=\"META 20260116 640.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"META\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/META%2020260116%20640.0%20CALL\">$META 20260116 640.0 CALL$</a>roll到2月到期600 <a data-mention-id=\"META 20260220 600.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"META\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/META%2020260220%20600.0%20CALL\">$META 20260220 600.0 CALL$</a> ，下调了行权价。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c93409e9e6ec4e5ce128dd5685669489\" tg-width=\"2482\" tg-height=\"150\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"HOOD\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Robinhood\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">$Robinhood(HOOD)$</a> </p><p>HOOD本周财报，波动率很高，多头和空头都有。</p><p>常规看涨价差是sell160 <a data-mention-id=\"HOOD 20251107 160.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"HOOD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/HOOD%2020251107%20160.0%20CALL\">$HOOD 20251107 160.0 CALL$</a> ，对冲buy175call <a data-mention-id=\"HOOD 20251107 175.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"HOOD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/HOOD%2020251107%20175.0%20CALL\">$HOOD 20251107 175.0 CALL$</a> </p><p>双买选择买入155call <a data-mention-id=\"HOOD 20251107 155.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"HOOD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/HOOD%2020251107%20155.0%20CALL\">$HOOD 20251107 155.0 CALL$</a> 和135put <a data-mention-id=\"HOOD 20251107 135.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"HOOD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/HOOD%2020251107%20135.0%20PUT\">$HOOD 20251107 135.0 PUT$</a> ，对冲sell put120<a data-mention-id=\"HOOD 20251107 120.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"HOOD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/HOOD%2020251107%20120.0%20PUT\">$HOOD 20251107 120.0 PUT$</a> </p><p>此外还有买入140put做空 <a data-mention-id=\"HOOD 20251219 140.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"HOOD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/HOOD%2020251219%20140.0%20PUT\">$HOOD 20251219 140.0 PUT$</a> ，当然从盘前情况来看140put已经获利了。</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p> <a data-mention-id=\"QQQ\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"纳指100ETF\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$</a> </p><p>下午有这么一条消息，说特朗普的小儿子于11月3日买入了2万多手QQQ的570put <a data-mention-id=\"QQQ 20251231 570.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"QQQ\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/QQQ%2020251231%20570.0%20PUT\">$QQQ 20251231 570.0 PUT$</a> ，价值约1090万美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9daf31e202c31e4f952ee81b01b04935\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"232\"></p><p>这笔交易清晰的记录在行情图上，因为极度价外期权交易需求不大，所以很确定那一根成交量柱子就是巴伦干的。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/816c5de3215f061858b584f574f48409\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"2622\"></p><p>回调570是个什么概念，市场整体大约回调10%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7f16154597f2a935896712327ef8ac2\" tg-width=\"1996\" tg-height=\"1434\"></p><p>对于巴伦这笔交易的原因，大家有很多猜测。此前市场有一些传言，说巴伦有一个炒股群，入门门槛是100万美元。此前也有过一些战绩，但均配合特朗普政策进行交易。</p><p>也就是说，巴伦操作常常匹配政策出货，那么推断这次看空可能也是一样的情况。问题就在这儿，从这次谈判来看特朗普变得很务实，不太像能继续喊口号做空的样子。那这次做空判断来自哪里就很有意思了。</p><p>有意思的是10月31日周五QQQ的期权开仓，可以看到有目标指向570的做空。一个是单腿买入看跌 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/QQQ 20260116 560.0 PUT\">$QQQ 20260116 560.0 PUT$ </a> 。</p><p>另一个是比率看跌价差买入640put <a data-mention-id=\"QQQ 20260320 640.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"QQQ\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/QQQ%2020260320%20640.0%20CALL\">$QQQ 20260320 640.0 CALL$</a> 卖出3倍570put对冲 <a data-mention-id=\"QQQ 20260320 570.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"QQQ\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/QQQ%2020260320%20570.0%20PUT\">$QQQ 20260320 570.0 PUT$</a> 。这个策略充分说明看空者并不预期会跌到570。</p><p>那么目标价是哪里呢，看跌最大开仓是12月到期600put <a data-mention-id=\"QQQ 20251219 600.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"QQQ\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/QQQ%2020251219%20600.0%20PUT\">$QQQ 20251219 600.0 PUT$</a> ，开仓3万手，大约是5%回调，也就是回调到本次谈判前市场的位置。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57f817e2da18f8eba36816f6ab2f27a8\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"1056\"></p><p>另外有意思的是，同日大空头michael burry<strong><u>提前两周披露</u></strong>三季13f持仓，如图，做空 <a data-mention-id=\"PLTR\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Palantir Technologies Inc.\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a> 和 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> 。前者空头仓位达到9.12亿，后者仓位达到1.86亿。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/201c99434209e1938c170b612dda7d70\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1247\"></p><p>我画了重点，提前两周公布，那么合理推断是两周后就跌完了，不过一般来说美股跌起来也很快就是了。</p><p>如果是两周跌完，考虑一下时间可以算在11月底前完成回调，那么比较极限的期权到期日选择在12月合适。</p><p>重点是近期PLTR和NVDA真有12月到期的看跌期权开仓：</p><p>nvda是12月到期200put <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20251219 200.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020251219%20200.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20251219 200.0 PUT$</a> ，近期密集开仓，1.9万手未平仓中有1.3万手是近期开仓。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6fda019563f988464a5acc0c5903e93\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"2177\"></p><p>PLTR是12月到期180put <a data-mention-id=\"PLTR 20251219 180.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"PLTR\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PLTR%2020251219%20180.0%20PUT\">$PLTR 20251219 180.0 PUT$</a> ，如图也是近期密集开仓，1.7万手未平仓中有1.3万手未平仓是近期开仓。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c76d3f311e94b40ea98863a78ecc6bf\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"2145\"></p><p>我猜这两张期权可能属于空单的一部分，不是全部，不过可以从近期期权一窥做空目标价，可能大空头的目标也是回到谈判前的价位。</p><p>所以总体来看本次回调，spy回到665，当然不排除恐慌助攻进一步回调至650。其他股票回调位置大概相似。总之就是我之前说的，没有回调空间，创造回调空间。</p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"AMD\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"美国超微公司\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$</a> </p><p>我之前认为AMD财报应该会反应平平，但目前来看会领先回调。</p><p>周一开仓了两个本周看跌期权230put <a data-mention-id=\"AMD 20251107 230.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AMD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD%2020251107%20230.0%20PUT\">$AMD 20251107 230.0 PUT$</a> 和240put <a data-mention-id=\"AMD 20251107 240.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AMD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD%2020251107%20240.0%20PUT\">$AMD 20251107 240.0 PUT$</a> ，都是单腿看跌，分别开仓1.24万手和1.16万手，成交额约250万和约500万，这个数量级的末日开仓，已经不必做做多的打算了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67d1ba2e1607336b2793db3409e96e9a\" tg-width=\"2484\" tg-height=\"156\"></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7125c5d76422f3e782b370adb2060eb9\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"898\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> </p><p>NVDA要说看跌期权有什么异常的话，就是本周到期看跌开仓前排数量过多，有种向下逼空即视感。</p><p>考虑跟随大盘可能回调180，但感觉概率比较低。180也是比较安全的价位了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9258d740a0f953d275202e15857efe33\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"1058\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"特斯拉\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> </p><p>long call roll仓，从11月415call <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20251121 415.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020251121%20415.0%20CALL\">$TSLA 20251121 415.0 CALL$</a> roll到明年1月470call <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20260116 470.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020260116%20470.0%20CALL\">$TSLA 20260116 470.0 CALL$</a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f850dd87e2e2e550fe056be6f2a08ed\" tg-width=\"2484\" tg-height=\"148\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"AMZN\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"亚马逊\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a> </p><p>long call roll仓，从11月210call <a data-mention-id=\"AMZN 20251121 210.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AMZN\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN%2020251121%20210.0%20CALL\">$AMZN 20251121 210.0 CALL$</a> roll到明年2月到期220call <a data-mention-id=\"AMZN 20260220 220.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"AMZN\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN%2020260220%20220.0%20CALL\">$AMZN 20260220 220.0 CALL$</a> ，需要注意低于股价，机构非常保守，预期不高。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52f7005b5948d1aa1ed7a1d90798a834\" tg-width=\"2480\" tg-height=\"208\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"META\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Meta Platforms, Inc.\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$</a> </p><p>meta财报后进行了一次roll仓，从700 <a data-mention-id=\"META 20251121 700.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"META\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/META%2020251121%20700.0%20CALL\">$META 20251121 700.0 CALL$</a> roll到640 <a data-mention-id=\"META 20260116 640.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"META\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/META%2020260116%20640.0%20CALL\">$META 20260116 640.0 CALL$</a> </p><p>不过大盘情况突然恶化导致再次roll仓，从1月到期640 <a data-mention-id=\"META 20260116 640.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"META\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/META%2020260116%20640.0%20CALL\">$META 20260116 640.0 CALL$</a>roll到2月到期600 <a data-mention-id=\"META 20260220 600.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"META\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/META%2020260220%20600.0%20CALL\">$META 20260220 600.0 CALL$</a> ，下调了行权价。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c93409e9e6ec4e5ce128dd5685669489\" tg-width=\"2482\" tg-height=\"150\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"HOOD\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Robinhood\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">$Robinhood(HOOD)$</a> </p><p>HOOD本周财报，波动率很高，多头和空头都有。</p><p>常规看涨价差是sell160 <a data-mention-id=\"HOOD 20251107 160.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"HOOD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/HOOD%2020251107%20160.0%20CALL\">$HOOD 20251107 160.0 CALL$</a> ，对冲buy175call <a data-mention-id=\"HOOD 20251107 175.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"HOOD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/HOOD%2020251107%20175.0%20CALL\">$HOOD 20251107 175.0 CALL$</a> </p><p>双买选择买入155call <a data-mention-id=\"HOOD 20251107 155.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"HOOD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/HOOD%2020251107%20155.0%20CALL\">$HOOD 20251107 155.0 CALL$</a> 和135put <a data-mention-id=\"HOOD 20251107 135.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"HOOD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/HOOD%2020251107%20135.0%20PUT\">$HOOD 20251107 135.0 PUT$</a> ，对冲sell put120<a data-mention-id=\"HOOD 20251107 120.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"HOOD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/HOOD%2020251107%20120.0%20PUT\">$HOOD 20251107 120.0 PUT$</a> </p><p>此外还有买入140put做空 <a data-mention-id=\"HOOD 20251219 140.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"HOOD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/HOOD%2020251219%20140.0%20PUT\">$HOOD 20251219 140.0 PUT$</a> ，当然从盘前情况来看140put已经获利了。</p></body></html>","text":"$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ 下午有这么一条消息，说特朗普的小儿子于11月3日买入了2万多手QQQ的570put $QQQ 20251231 570.0 PUT$ ，价值约1090万美元。 这笔交易清晰的记录在行情图上，因为极度价外期权交易需求不大，所以很确定那一根成交量柱子就是巴伦干的。 回调570是个什么概念，市场整体大约回调10%。 对于巴伦这笔交易的原因，大家有很多猜测。此前市场有一些传言，说巴伦有一个炒股群，入门门槛是100万美元。此前也有过一些战绩，但均配合特朗普政策进行交易。 也就是说，巴伦操作常常匹配政策出货，那么推断这次看空可能也是一样的情况。问题就在这儿，从这次谈判来看特朗普变得很务实，不太像能继续喊口号做空的样子。那这次做空判断来自哪里就很有意思了。 有意思的是10月31日周五QQQ的期权开仓，可以看到有目标指向570的做空。一个是单腿买入看跌 $QQQ 20260116 560.0 PUT$ 。 另一个是比率看跌价差买入640put $QQQ 20260320 640.0 CALL$ 卖出3倍570put对冲 $QQQ 20260320 570.0 PUT$ 。这个策略充分说明看空者并不预期会跌到570。 那么目标价是哪里呢，看跌最大开仓是12月到期600put $QQQ 20251219 600.0 PUT$ ，开仓3万手，大约是5%回调，也就是回调到本次谈判前市场的位置。 另外有意思的是，同日大空头michael burry提前两周披露三季13f持仓，如图，做空 $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 和 $英伟达(NVDA)$ 。前者空头仓位达到9.12亿，后者仓位达到1.86亿。 我画了重点，提前两周公布，那么合理推断是两周后就跌完了，不过一般来说美股跌起来也很快就是了。 如果是两周跌完，考虑一下时间可以算在11月底前完成回调，那么比较极限的期权到期日选择在12月合适。 重点是近期PLTR和NVDA真有12月到期的看跌期权开仓： nvda是12月到期200put $NVDA 20251219 200.0 PUT$ ，近期密集开仓，1.9万手未平仓中有1.3万手是近期开仓。 PLTR是12月到期180put $PLTR 20251219 180.0 PUT$ ，如图也是近期密集开仓，1.7万手未平仓中有1.3万手未平仓是近期开仓。 我猜这两张期权可能属于空单的一部分，不是全部，不过可以从近期期权一窥做空目标价，可能大空头的目标也是回到谈判前的价位。 所以总体来看本次回调，spy回到665，当然不排除恐慌助攻进一步回调至650。其他股票回调位置大概相似。总之就是我之前说的，没有回调空间，创造回调空间。 $美国超微公司(AMD)$ 我之前认为AMD财报应该会反应平平，但目前来看会领先回调。 周一开仓了两个本周看跌期权230put $AMD 20251107 230.0 PUT$ 和240put $AMD 20251107 240.0 PUT$ ，都是单腿看跌，分别开仓1.24万手和1.16万手，成交额约250万和约500万，这个数量级的末日开仓，已经不必做做多的打算了。 $英伟达(NVDA)$ NVDA要说看跌期权有什么异常的话，就是本周到期看跌开仓前排数量过多，有种向下逼空即视感。 考虑跟随大盘可能回调180，但感觉概率比较低。180也是比较安全的价位了。 $特斯拉(TSLA)$ long call roll仓，从11月415call $TSLA 20251121 415.0 CALL$ roll到明年1月470call $TSLA 20260116 470.0 CALL$ $亚马逊(AMZN)$ long call roll仓，从11月210call $AMZN 20251121 210.0 CALL$ roll到明年2月到期220call $AMZN 20260220 220.0 CALL$ ，需要注意低于股价，机构非常保守，预期不高。 $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ meta财报后进行了一次roll仓，从700 $META 20251121 700.0 CALL$ roll到640 $META 20260116 640.0 CALL$ 不过大盘情况突然恶化导致再次roll仓，从1月到期640 $META 20260116 640.0 CALL$roll到2月到期600 $META 20260220 600.0 CALL$ ，下调了行权价。 $Robinhood(HOOD)$ HOOD本周财报，波动率很高，多头和空头都有。 常规看涨价差是sell160 $HOOD 20251107 160.0 CALL$ ，对冲buy175call $HOOD 20251107 175.0 CALL$ 双买选择买入155call $HOOD 20251107 155.0 CALL$ 和135put $HOOD 20251107 135.0 PUT$ ，对冲sell put120$HOOD 20251107 120.0 PUT$ 此外还有买入140put做空 $HOOD 20251219 140.0 PUT$ ，当然从盘前情况来看140put已经获利了。","highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/496665273475336","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["NVDA","META","QQQ","HOOD","AMZN","TSLA","AMD","PLTR","QQQ 20260320 570.0 PUT","AMZN 20260220 220.0 CALL","META 20260220 600.0 CALL","QQQ 20260320 640.0 CALL"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3020,"optionInvolvedFlag":true,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1282,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":20,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/496812161437776"}
精彩评论