今年整体是震荡上涨，_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

XM20220605

2025-04-26

今年整体是震荡上涨，震荡是由于高位，上涨是由于需求。

确认QE则黄金就跌不动了，现在与其说交易的拥挤，不如说是交易6月美债软着陆

黄金期货周一大涨3.32%至4484美元/盎司,一举突破4400关口并刷新七周高位,白银涨4.70%至66.31美元,涨势比黄金更急。逻辑仍是上周非农留下的那条链:就业减少2.3万、时薪只增3.2%,9月加息押注被压下去,油价回落先缓和通胀担忧,收益率与美元预期同步下行,贵金属的主线已从避险彻底切到"实际利率回落"。周三的CPI是这条链的下一个验证点。当买盘在数据公布前就先抢跑,金银赌的是通胀降温还是政策转向?

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