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2021-04-20

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Pandemic Savings + Government Stimulus: What It All Means For The Stock Market And Economy<blockquote>大流行储蓄+政府刺激：这一切对股市和经济意味着什么</blockquote>

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While some investors are growing skeptical of the market’s expanding valuation, others argue the unprecedented conditions in the global economy have created a perfect storm for the stock market that may last for quite a while.<blockquote>TheSPDR标普500 ETF信托SPDR标普500指数ETF 0.47%自标准普尔指数2020年3月触及疫情低点以来，上涨了86%以上。虽然一些投资者对市场不断扩大的估值越来越怀疑，但其他人则认为，全球经济前所未有的状况给股市带来了一场可能持续相当长一段时间的完美风暴。</blockquote> Elevated Savings Rate:RSM US LLP Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas said on Monday that more than $6 trillion in U.S. government stimulus spending has certainly helped support the economy and boost stock prices. However, elevated pandemic savings rates may end up being a longer-term tailwind for the economy.<blockquote>储蓄率提高：RSM US LLP首席经济学家Joe Brusuelas周一表示，美国政府超过6万亿美元的刺激支出无疑帮助支撑了经济并提振了股价。然而，疫情储蓄率的上升最终可能会成为经济的长期推动力。</blockquote> Brusuelas said U.S. savings rates spiked 400% last April during the early weeks of the U.S. pandemic. Even 12 months later, U.S. savings rates are still 74% higher than pre-pandemic levels.<blockquote>Brusuelas表示，去年4月，在美国疫情爆发的最初几周，美国储蓄率飙升了400%。即使12个月后，美国的储蓄率仍比大流行前的水平高出74%。</blockquote> “We expect households to hold onto some of their savings until deeper into the recovery when employment is more secure and wages begin to rise on a sustained basis. The burst of spending will arise from an all-of-the-above combination of increased employment opportunities and government benefits, backed with the added security of accumulated savings,” Brusuelas said.<blockquote>“我们预计家庭将保留部分储蓄，直到经济复苏更深入，就业更加稳定，工资开始持续上涨。支出的爆发将来自上述所有因素的增加。就业机会和政府福利，以及累积储蓄的额外安全性的支持，”布鲁苏拉斯说。</blockquote> Hyperinflation Concerns:Another factor that could have a significant impact on the scale and duration of the economic recovery is inflation.<blockquote>恶性通货膨胀担忧：另一个可能对经济复苏的规模和持续时间产生重大影响的因素是通货膨胀。</blockquote> Investors have piled intoBitcoin(CRYPTO: BTC) and other cryptocurrencies as flight-to-safety investments, anticipating the fact that the global money supply has grown by 40% since the beginning of 2020 will eventually lead to hyperinflation in fiat currencies. Hyperinflation could potentially trigger a spike in interest rates that would then weigh on economic growth.<blockquote>投资者纷纷涌入比特币（CRYPTO：BTC）和其他加密货币作为避险投资，预计自2020年初以来全球货币供应量增长了40%，最终将导致法定货币的恶性通货膨胀。恶性通货膨胀可能会引发利率飙升，从而拖累经济增长。</blockquote> Some observershave even drawn comparisonsbetween the recent U.S. money printing and similar money printing Germany did in the 1920s to pay off its World War I debts. Germany’s stock market initially boomed, but its currency subsequently experienced hyperinflation that ultimately led to an economic collapse.<blockquote>一些观察家甚至将美国最近的印钞与德国在20世纪20年代为偿还第一次世界大战债务而进行的类似印钞进行了比较。德国股市最初繁荣，但其货币随后经历了恶性通货膨胀，最终导致经济崩溃。</blockquote> Fortunately, the U.S. economy has digested the government’s money printing relatively well up to this point. In fact, the Federal Reserve is projecting Core PCE inflation of just 2.2% in 2021 and 2% in 2022, roughly in line with its 2% long-term target.<blockquote>幸运的是，到目前为止，美国经济已经比较好地消化了政府的印钞。事实上，美联储预计2021年核心PCE通胀率仅为2.2%，2022年为2%，大致符合其2%的长期目标。</blockquote> Benzinga’s Take:There have been plenty of economic cycles in U.S. history, but the current one is unique for at least two major reasons.<blockquote>Benzinga的看法：美国历史上有过很多次经济周期，但当前的经济周期是独一无二的，至少有两个主要原因。</blockquote> <ul> <li>All global economies will be recovering from the same downturn at the same time in 2021, which will be a first.</li> <li>The $6 trillion in U.S. stimulus spending is the largest stimulus effort in history by orders of magnitude, so it’s difficult for investors to look to history for direct comparisons.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>2021年，所有全球经济体将同时从同样的低迷中复苏，这将是第一次。</li><li>美国6万亿美元的刺激支出是历史上数量级最大的刺激措施，因此投资者很难通过历史进行直接比较。</li></ul></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pandemic Savings + Government Stimulus: What It All Means For The Stock Market And Economy<blockquote>大流行储蓄+政府刺激：这一切对股市和经济意味着什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPandemic Savings + Government Stimulus: What It All Means For The Stock Market And Economy<blockquote>大流行储蓄+政府刺激：这一切对股市和经济意味着什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\nBenzinga \n2021-04-20 11:13\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nTheSPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF TrustSPY 0.47%is up more than 86% since the S&amp;P hit its pandemic low in March 2020. While some investors are growing skeptical of the market’s expanding valuation, others argue the unprecedented conditions in the global economy have created a perfect storm for the stock market that may last for quite a while.<blockquote>TheSPDR标普500 ETF信托SPDR标普500指数ETF 0.47%自标准普尔指数2020年3月触及疫情低点以来，上涨了86%以上。虽然一些投资者对市场不断扩大的估值越来越怀疑，但其他人则认为，全球经济前所未有的状况给股市带来了一场可能持续相当长一段时间的完美风暴。</blockquote> Elevated Savings Rate:RSM US LLP Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas said on Monday that more than $6 trillion in U.S. government stimulus spending has certainly helped support the economy and boost stock prices. However, elevated pandemic savings rates may end up being a longer-term tailwind for the economy.<blockquote>储蓄率提高：RSM US LLP首席经济学家Joe Brusuelas周一表示，美国政府超过6万亿美元的刺激支出无疑帮助支撑了经济并提振了股价。然而，疫情储蓄率的上升最终可能会成为经济的长期推动力。</blockquote> Brusuelas said U.S. savings rates spiked 400% last April during the early weeks of the U.S. pandemic. Even 12 months later, U.S. savings rates are still 74% higher than pre-pandemic levels.<blockquote>Brusuelas表示，去年4月，在美国疫情爆发的最初几周，美国储蓄率飙升了400%。即使12个月后，美国的储蓄率仍比大流行前的水平高出74%。</blockquote> “We expect households to hold onto some of their savings until deeper into the recovery when employment is more secure and wages begin to rise on a sustained basis. The burst of spending will arise from an all-of-the-above combination of increased employment opportunities and government benefits, backed with the added security of accumulated savings,” Brusuelas said.<blockquote>“我们预计家庭将保留部分储蓄，直到经济复苏更深入，就业更加稳定，工资开始持续上涨。支出的爆发将来自上述所有因素的增加。就业机会和政府福利，以及累积储蓄的额外安全性的支持，”布鲁苏拉斯说。</blockquote> Hyperinflation Concerns:Another factor that could have a significant impact on the scale and duration of the economic recovery is inflation.<blockquote>恶性通货膨胀担忧：另一个可能对经济复苏的规模和持续时间产生重大影响的因素是通货膨胀。</blockquote> Investors have piled intoBitcoin(CRYPTO: BTC) and other cryptocurrencies as flight-to-safety investments, anticipating the fact that the global money supply has grown by 40% since the beginning of 2020 will eventually lead to hyperinflation in fiat currencies. Hyperinflation could potentially trigger a spike in interest rates that would then weigh on economic growth.<blockquote>投资者纷纷涌入比特币（CRYPTO：BTC）和其他加密货币作为避险投资，预计自2020年初以来全球货币供应量增长了40%，最终将导致法定货币的恶性通货膨胀。恶性通货膨胀可能会引发利率飙升，从而拖累经济增长。</blockquote> Some observershave even drawn comparisonsbetween the recent U.S. money printing and similar money printing Germany did in the 1920s to pay off its World War I debts. Germany’s stock market initially boomed, but its currency subsequently experienced hyperinflation that ultimately led to an economic collapse.<blockquote>一些观察家甚至将美国最近的印钞与德国在20世纪20年代为偿还第一次世界大战债务而进行的类似印钞进行了比较。德国股市最初繁荣，但其货币随后经历了恶性通货膨胀，最终导致经济崩溃。</blockquote> Fortunately, the U.S. economy has digested the government’s money printing relatively well up to this point. In fact, the Federal Reserve is projecting Core PCE inflation of just 2.2% in 2021 and 2% in 2022, roughly in line with its 2% long-term target.<blockquote>幸运的是，到目前为止，美国经济已经比较好地消化了政府的印钞。事实上，美联储预计2021年核心PCE通胀率仅为2.2%，2022年为2%，大致符合其2%的长期目标。</blockquote> Benzinga’s Take:There have been plenty of economic cycles in U.S. history, but the current one is unique for at least two major reasons.<blockquote>Benzinga的看法：美国历史上有过很多次经济周期，但当前的经济周期是独一无二的，至少有两个主要原因。</blockquote> <ul> <li>All global economies will be recovering from the same downturn at the same time in 2021, which will be a first.</li> <li>The $6 trillion in U.S. stimulus spending is the largest stimulus effort in history by orders of magnitude, so it’s difficult for investors to look to history for direct comparisons.</li> </ul><blockquote><ul><li>2021年，所有全球经济体将同时从同样的低迷中复苏，这将是第一次。</li><li>美国6万亿美元的刺激支出是历史上数量级最大的刺激措施，因此投资者很难通过历史进行直接比较。</li></ul></blockquote>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151963822","content_text":"TheSPDR S&P 500 ETF TrustSPY 0.47%is up more than 86% since the S&P hit its pandemic low in March 2020. While some investors are growing skeptical of the market’s expanding valuation, others argue the unprecedented conditions in the global economy have created a perfect storm for the stock market that may last for quite a while.\nElevated Savings Rate:RSM US LLP Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas said on Monday that more than $6 trillion in U.S. government stimulus spending has certainly helped support the economy and boost stock prices. However, elevated pandemic savings rates may end up being a longer-term tailwind for the economy.\nBrusuelas said U.S. savings rates spiked 400% last April during the early weeks of the U.S. pandemic. Even 12 months later, U.S. savings rates are still 74% higher than pre-pandemic levels.\n“We expect households to hold onto some of their savings until deeper into the recovery when employment is more secure and wages begin to rise on a sustained basis. The burst of spending will arise from an all-of-the-above combination of increased employment opportunities and government benefits, backed with the added security of accumulated savings,” Brusuelas said.\nHyperinflation Concerns:Another factor that could have a significant impact on the scale and duration of the economic recovery is inflation.\nInvestors have piled intoBitcoin(CRYPTO: BTC) and other cryptocurrencies as flight-to-safety investments, anticipating the fact that the global money supply has grown by 40% since the beginning of 2020 will eventually lead to hyperinflation in fiat currencies. Hyperinflation could potentially trigger a spike in interest rates that would then weigh on economic growth.\nSome observershave even drawn comparisonsbetween the recent U.S. money printing and similar money printing Germany did in the 1920s to pay off its World War I debts. Germany’s stock market initially boomed, but its currency subsequently experienced hyperinflation that ultimately led to an economic collapse.\nFortunately, the U.S. economy has digested the government’s money printing relatively well up to this point. In fact, the Federal Reserve is projecting Core PCE inflation of just 2.2% in 2021 and 2% in 2022, roughly in line with its 2% long-term target.\nBenzinga’s Take:There have been plenty of economic cycles in U.S. history, but the current one is unique for at least two major reasons.\n\nAll global economies will be recovering from the same downturn at the same time in 2021, which will be a first.\nThe $6 trillion in U.S. stimulus spending is the largest stimulus effort in history by orders of magnitude, so it’s difficult for investors to look to history for direct comparisons.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3198,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/371039099"}