Zivvvt
2021-03-17
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@许亚鑫:
A50二次探底,本周重点关注这俩件事!
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<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3564369038892727\">@小鲲鹏</a>:16464//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3564369038892727\">@小鲲鹏</a>:喔</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>\n回复 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3564369038892727\">@小鲲鹏</a>:16464//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3564369038892727\">@小鲲鹏</a>:喔</body></html>","text":"回复 @小鲲鹏:16464//@小鲲鹏:喔","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324322312","repostId":322828363,"repostType":1,"repost":{"magic":2,"id":322828363,"tweetId":"322828363","gmtCreate":1615796784152,"gmtModify":1703493062470,"author":{"id":3532831849818465,"authorId":3532831849818465,"authorIdStr":"3532831849818465","name":"许亚鑫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72cbe26a31edf2913e619f4aa762d2d4","vip":2,"userType":2,"introduction":"泓泽资本创始合伙人及首席策略师,匠鑫学院院长,新华社特约评论员","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[{"badgeId":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd-1","templateUuid":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd","name":"星级创作者","description":"社区优质创作者:发表过3篇及以上精华帖,且30天内发表过至少一篇精华帖并参与过评论","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.laohu8.com/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.05.11","individualDisplayEnabled":1,"backgroundColor":{"dark":"#675a37","tint":"#f9ebc2"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#ffffff","tint":"#ab7a0e"}}],"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[{"themeId":"356f0ebdc8524f01997a00b3a82fe82c","categoryId":"d316d8bd4a714fab9ea15fd7157c45e7","name":"12月期货免佣月","type":3,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/special/discussion&rndata={\"themeId\":356f0ebdc8524f01997a00b3a82fe82c}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": 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<p>《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/326783373\" target=\"_blank\">2021年港中美股的投资策略(附标的物)!</a>》</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78d63bb04002d776e5bbfb792f229000\" tg-width=\"353\" tg-height=\"643\"><span>空间站开通</span></p> <p>此前,美债收益率的持续攀升,引发了市场的恐慌抛售潮,但是实际上在我们看来,这更像是一个“精心设计”的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/365293599\" target=\"_blank\">诱空陷阱</a>诱空陷阱。</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97a66b1b72286a415809ece9782804a\" tg-width=\"676\" tg-height=\"437\"><span>美国10年期国债收益率</span></p> <p>就在3月12日,10年期美债收益率再次冲破1.6%,一度触及了1.63%上方的近期新高,再次引发了港美股的抛售潮,不过恐慌并未大面积蔓延,最终美股,尤其是道指维持了相当强的走势,纳指则收复了盘中一半跌幅。</p> <p>今日A股如期低开,盘中虽有所反抗,<b>不过春节前火爆的抱团现象,如今正演化成基金赎回的踩踏连锁反应</b>,让整个市场的波动率进一步放大,直接出现二次探底的走势。</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ee3b50e21c4f73f5f4342b080721912\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"395\"><span>A50指数连续</span></p> <p>以A50指数为例,自春节后20606高点以来的调整,空间上触及16838已经完成了主跌,触底小幅反弹之后仍处于二次探底的过程,这个过程中将会产生买点,因为从时间周期来看,抵达3月18日将会完成日线级别调整的月循环。这个循环时间抵达,也就意味着调整的时间耗尽,之后大概率进入筑底的反复震荡过程。</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8948865517344f6a97180b8fc32e1cd1\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"342\"><span>2021年政府工作报告</span></p> <p>尽管央行15日发布公告称,开展1000亿元中期借贷便利(MLF)操作和100亿元7天期逆回购操作。但是当日有100亿元逆回购到期,16日有1000亿元MLF到期。<b>因此,央行依然还是维持着此前谨慎的</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/361852820\" target=\"_blank\"><b>精准滴灌</b></a><b>操作。</b></p> <p>从政府工作报告中我们可以看出,短期股市受到压力,主要来自于央行与财政部货币和财政政策相对于2020年缩紧所造成的投资者情绪上的落差。<b>这也是政策的重点转向实体经历之后,虚拟经济需要承受的短期阵痛,无法享受类似于美股那样的流动性溢价。</b></p> <p>但是对于中期来说,大家也不必太过悲观,如果把今年的财政赤字对比2016-2019年,实际上还是相对较为宽松。当下国家的宏观调控似乎是在为万一海外泡沫破裂对内产生冲击之时,腾挪出足以调整的货币与财政政策空间。</p> <p>因此,从博弈的角度来说,<b>本周关注的重点就是两件事:其一,美联储本周利率会议,是否会对近期美债收益率的持续攀升进行口头或实质性干预;其二,3月18日-19日的中美高层战略对话。</b></p> <p>至于日本,英国,中国的TAIWAN地区,挪威、俄罗斯和印尼央行即将公布的利率决议,以及澳洲联储即将公布的3月会议纪要,还有欧元区和加拿大的CPI,都可以统统不用看,<b>因为现阶段,债落万物涨,债起万物跌,G2不点头,世界总跌宕,逆势不死抗,苟点求新生。</b></p> <p>最后,依然祝福各位交易顺利!</p> <p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CNmain\" target=\"_blank\">$A50指数主连(CNmain)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\" target=\"_blank\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000300.SH\">$沪深300(000300.SH)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/YMmain\" target=\"_blank\">$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/HSImain\" target=\"_blank\">$恒生指数主连(HSImain)$</a></p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78d63bb04002d776e5bbfb792f229000\" tg-width=\"353\" tg-height=\"643\"></p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78d63bb04002d776e5bbfb792f229000\" tg-width=\"353\" tg-height=\"643\"></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>各位虎友!匠鑫学院的空间站已经顺利开通,今后如果遇到一些重要投资标的物的实操报告,会发布在空间站供大家参考学习,第一篇报告先免费开放给大家阅读,感兴趣的朋友可以选择订阅噢~</p> <p>《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/326783373\" target=\"_blank\">2021年港中美股的投资策略(附标的物)!</a>》</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78d63bb04002d776e5bbfb792f229000\" tg-width=\"353\" tg-height=\"643\"><span>空间站开通</span></p> <p>此前,美债收益率的持续攀升,引发了市场的恐慌抛售潮,但是实际上在我们看来,这更像是一个“精心设计”的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/365293599\" target=\"_blank\">诱空陷阱</a>诱空陷阱。</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97a66b1b72286a415809ece9782804a\" tg-width=\"676\" tg-height=\"437\"><span>美国10年期国债收益率</span></p> <p>就在3月12日,10年期美债收益率再次冲破1.6%,一度触及了1.63%上方的近期新高,再次引发了港美股的抛售潮,不过恐慌并未大面积蔓延,最终美股,尤其是道指维持了相当强的走势,纳指则收复了盘中一半跌幅。</p> <p>今日A股如期低开,盘中虽有所反抗,<b>不过春节前火爆的抱团现象,如今正演化成基金赎回的踩踏连锁反应</b>,让整个市场的波动率进一步放大,直接出现二次探底的走势。</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ee3b50e21c4f73f5f4342b080721912\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"395\"><span>A50指数连续</span></p> <p>以A50指数为例,自春节后20606高点以来的调整,空间上触及16838已经完成了主跌,触底小幅反弹之后仍处于二次探底的过程,这个过程中将会产生买点,因为从时间周期来看,抵达3月18日将会完成日线级别调整的月循环。这个循环时间抵达,也就意味着调整的时间耗尽,之后大概率进入筑底的反复震荡过程。</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8948865517344f6a97180b8fc32e1cd1\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"342\"><span>2021年政府工作报告</span></p> <p>尽管央行15日发布公告称,开展1000亿元中期借贷便利(MLF)操作和100亿元7天期逆回购操作。但是当日有100亿元逆回购到期,16日有1000亿元MLF到期。<b>因此,央行依然还是维持着此前谨慎的</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/361852820\" target=\"_blank\"><b>精准滴灌</b></a><b>操作。</b></p> <p>从政府工作报告中我们可以看出,短期股市受到压力,主要来自于央行与财政部货币和财政政策相对于2020年缩紧所造成的投资者情绪上的落差。<b>这也是政策的重点转向实体经历之后,虚拟经济需要承受的短期阵痛,无法享受类似于美股那样的流动性溢价。</b></p> <p>但是对于中期来说,大家也不必太过悲观,如果把今年的财政赤字对比2016-2019年,实际上还是相对较为宽松。当下国家的宏观调控似乎是在为万一海外泡沫破裂对内产生冲击之时,腾挪出足以调整的货币与财政政策空间。</p> <p>因此,从博弈的角度来说,<b>本周关注的重点就是两件事:其一,美联储本周利率会议,是否会对近期美债收益率的持续攀升进行口头或实质性干预;其二,3月18日-19日的中美高层战略对话。</b></p> <p>至于日本,英国,中国的TAIWAN地区,挪威、俄罗斯和印尼央行即将公布的利率决议,以及澳洲联储即将公布的3月会议纪要,还有欧元区和加拿大的CPI,都可以统统不用看,<b>因为现阶段,债落万物涨,债起万物跌,G2不点头,世界总跌宕,逆势不死抗,苟点求新生。</b></p> <p>最后,依然祝福各位交易顺利!</p> <p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CNmain\" target=\"_blank\">$A50指数主连(CNmain)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\" target=\"_blank\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000300.SH\">$沪深300(000300.SH)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/YMmain\" target=\"_blank\">$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/HSImain\" target=\"_blank\">$恒生指数主连(HSImain)$</a></p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78d63bb04002d776e5bbfb792f229000\" tg-width=\"353\" tg-height=\"643\"></p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78d63bb04002d776e5bbfb792f229000\" tg-width=\"353\" tg-height=\"643\"></p></body></html>","text":"各位虎友!匠鑫学院的空间站已经顺利开通,今后如果遇到一些重要投资标的物的实操报告,会发布在空间站供大家参考学习,第一篇报告先免费开放给大家阅读,感兴趣的朋友可以选择订阅噢~ 《2021年港中美股的投资策略(附标的物)!》 空间站开通 此前,美债收益率的持续攀升,引发了市场的恐慌抛售潮,但是实际上在我们看来,这更像是一个“精心设计”的诱空陷阱诱空陷阱。 美国10年期国债收益率 就在3月12日,10年期美债收益率再次冲破1.6%,一度触及了1.63%上方的近期新高,再次引发了港美股的抛售潮,不过恐慌并未大面积蔓延,最终美股,尤其是道指维持了相当强的走势,纳指则收复了盘中一半跌幅。 今日A股如期低开,盘中虽有所反抗,不过春节前火爆的抱团现象,如今正演化成基金赎回的踩踏连锁反应,让整个市场的波动率进一步放大,直接出现二次探底的走势。 A50指数连续 以A50指数为例,自春节后20606高点以来的调整,空间上触及16838已经完成了主跌,触底小幅反弹之后仍处于二次探底的过程,这个过程中将会产生买点,因为从时间周期来看,抵达3月18日将会完成日线级别调整的月循环。这个循环时间抵达,也就意味着调整的时间耗尽,之后大概率进入筑底的反复震荡过程。 2021年政府工作报告 尽管央行15日发布公告称,开展1000亿元中期借贷便利(MLF)操作和100亿元7天期逆回购操作。但是当日有100亿元逆回购到期,16日有1000亿元MLF到期。因此,央行依然还是维持着此前谨慎的精准滴灌操作。 从政府工作报告中我们可以看出,短期股市受到压力,主要来自于央行与财政部货币和财政政策相对于2020年缩紧所造成的投资者情绪上的落差。这也是政策的重点转向实体经历之后,虚拟经济需要承受的短期阵痛,无法享受类似于美股那样的流动性溢价。 但是对于中期来说,大家也不必太过悲观,如果把今年的财政赤字对比2016-2019年,实际上还是相对较为宽松。当下国家的宏观调控似乎是在为万一海外泡沫破裂对内产生冲击之时,腾挪出足以调整的货币与财政政策空间。 因此,从博弈的角度来说,本周关注的重点就是两件事:其一,美联储本周利率会议,是否会对近期美债收益率的持续攀升进行口头或实质性干预;其二,3月18日-19日的中美高层战略对话。 至于日本,英国,中国的TAIWAN地区,挪威、俄罗斯和印尼央行即将公布的利率决议,以及澳洲联储即将公布的3月会议纪要,还有欧元区和加拿大的CPI,都可以统统不用看,因为现阶段,债落万物涨,债起万物跌,G2不点头,世界总跌宕,逆势不死抗,苟点求新生。 最后,依然祝福各位交易顺利! 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