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2021-05-10
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The Generals Will Be Back: Goldman Assures Its Clients That FAAMGs Will Make Triumphant Return<blockquote>将军们将回归：高盛向客户保证 FAAMG 将凯旋而归</blockquote>
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This was... a reminder that stocks often peak on good news.\"</p><p><blockquote>今天早些时候，摩根士丹利首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊 (Michael Wilson) 关注了第一季度财报季可能出现的亮点，他指出，“吹嘘的 FAANMG 股票在遭遇大规模冲击后，因出色的第一季度盈利业绩而遭到抛售。这是……提醒人们，股票往往会因好消息而达到顶峰。”</blockquote></p><p> Not to make a too fine point out of it, suddenly everyone is focusing on the performance of the FAAMG stocks which, after soaring for much of 2020 when they returned 56% and accounted for 7% of the 18% S&P 500 return last year, have gone nowhere in recent months prompting concerns that it's all downhill from here.</p><p><blockquote>不用说得太精细，突然每个人都把注意力集中在 FAAMG 股票的表现上，该股票在 2020 年大部分时间飙升，回报率为 56%，占去年标普500 18% 回报率的 7%，但最近几个月却无处可去，这引发了人们的担忧，即一切都将从这里开始走下坡路。</blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, FAAMGs were also the topic of the latest weekly note from Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin, who writes that confronted with the prospect of decelerating US economic activity, the bank's clients are suddenly freaking out about a breakdown in the 5<i>Generals,</i>and are \"<i>asking about the potential for a transition in market leadership\"</i>even as \"<i>many investors have expressed the view that economic deceleration should support the outperformance of the largest “Big Tech” stocks in the market\",</i>a topic which Goldman analyzed recently and which view the bank supports.</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，FAAMG 也是高盛首席股票策略师 David Kostin 最新每周报告的主题，他写道，面对美国经济活动放缓的前景，该银行的客户突然对 5 美元的崩溃感到害怕<i>将军们，</i>并且是“<i>询问市场领导地位转变的潜力”</i>即使作为“<i>许多投资者表示，经济放缓应该会支撑市场上最大的“大型科技股”的优异表现。</i>高盛最近分析了这个话题，该银行也支持这个话题。</blockquote></p><p> Despite its ringing endorsement of FAAMGs, Kostin admits that one common concern with this thesis relates to the high current market concentration compared with history, to wit:<b>he five largest stocks in the S&P 500 represent 21% of index capitalization, significantly more than the long-term average of 14%, above the 18% at the peak of the Tech bubble in 2000, and only trailing the 25% level reached during mid-2020.</b>This large index weight of the top stocks is important because it serves as a practical headwind to continued appreciation given SEC restrictions on portfolio concentration that limit how much mutual funds can continue to buy them.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Kostin 对 FAAMGs 大力支持，但他承认，该论文的一个共同担忧是与历史相比，当前市场集中度较高，即：<b>标普500最大的五只股票占指数市值的21%，明显高于14%的长期平均水平，高于2000年科技泡沫顶峰时的18%，仅落后于2020年中期达到的25%水平。</b>顶级股票的这种大指数权重很重要，因为考虑到美国证券交易委员会对投资组合集中度的限制，限制了共同基金可以继续购买这些股票的数量，它是持续升值的实际阻力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d48151f4a9d0133be4773c6ff3e878b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"338\">Of course, there is a fundamental reason why investors have piled into the FAAMGs, first and foremost, the durability of the revenue streams of these firms during 2020 was in stark contrast with the extreme declines exhibited by many other businesses. Last year, sales for the median S&P 500 company collapsed at its nadir by 7% before partially recovering to post flat full-year growth. In contrast, the five FAAMG stocks collectively grew sales by 18% even at the point of maximum contraction for the economy in 2Q.<b>They grew full-year 2020 revenues by 21% vs. 2019</b>.</p><p><blockquote>当然，投资者涌入FAAMG有一个根本原因，首先也是最重要的是，这些公司在2020年的收入流的持久性与许多其他企业的极端下降形成了鲜明对比。去年，这家标普500公司的销售额在最低点暴跌了 7%，然后部分恢复，全年增长持平。相比之下，即使在第二季度经济最紧缩的时候，五只 FAAMG 股票的销售额也总体增长了 18%。<b>与 2019 年相比，2020 年全年收入增长了 21%</b>.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8da01105192f6119b179033fa5670b91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"330\">Q1 results show that the FAAMG growth persists. The median S&P 500 stock reported year/year sales growth of 9% and 57% of S&P 500 firms beat consensus sales estimates, with a median positive surprise of 4%. At the same time,<b>the five largest stocks reported aggregate 1Q 2021 sales of $321 billion –a remarkable $24 billion or 8% above consensus – for year/year growth of 41%</b>. For 2022, consensus expects the five stocks will post revenue and EPS growth of 14% and 10%, respectively, compared with 6% and 10% for the median S&P 500 stock.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度结果显示，FAAMG 的增长持续存在。标普500股票的同比销售额增长率中位数为9%，57%的标普500公司超出了普遍的销售预期，其中4%的正向惊喜中位数。同时，<b>五只最大的股票报告称，2021 年第一季度的总销售额为 3210 亿美元，比市场预期高出 240 亿美元，即 8%，同比增长 41%</b>. 到 2022 年，普遍预计这五只股票的收入和每股收益将分别增长 14% 和 10%，而标普500股票的中位数分别为 6% 和 10%。</blockquote></p><p> But according to Goldman it's not the topline growth that is the most distinguishing aspect of the FAAMG business models, but the amount and share of operating cash flow they devote to driving growth. During 2020, the five FAAMG stocks, spent $128 billion in R&D and another $104 billion on capex, accounting for 22% of the S&P 500 total. FAAMG posted a growth investment ratio of 64% over the last three years vs. 11% for the typical stock. As Goldman puts it,<i>\"they are investing their way to superior growth.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>但根据高盛的说法，FAAMG 商业模式最独特的方面不是营收增长，而是他们用于推动增长的运营现金流的数量和份额。2020年，FAAMG的五只股票在R&D上花费了1280亿美元，另外1040亿美元用于资本支出，占标普500总额的22%。FAAMG 在过去三年中的增长投资率为 64%，而典型股票的增长投资率为 11%。正如高盛所说，<i>“他们正在投资以实现卓越增长。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39ecf24db61c49e18cce9872ed4798fb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"355\">While those are the clearest positives propping up the FAAMGs, they are largely priced in; at the same time there is a list of sizable and growing risks, starting with Biden's proposed tax reform which would raise both corporate and capital gains tax rates and represent possible sources of risk for the FAAMG stocks. If the Biden corporate tax plan were fully enacted, FAAMG 2022E earnings would decrease by roughly 9% relative to consensus expectations. FAAMGs generate approximately 55% of income abroad. Using a back-of-the-envelope approach, applying the proposed 28% domestic statutory rate and 21% tax rate on foreign income to each portion of FAAMG’s income, their collective effective tax rate would rise by 7% to 24% (vs. +6 pp to 25% for the median S&P 500 stock) and would decrease consensus 2022 FAAMG earnings by 9% (vs. -8% for the S&P 500).</p><p><blockquote>虽然这些是支撑 FAAMG 的最明显的积极因素，但它们在很大程度上被定价了；与此同时，还有一系列相当大且不断增长的风险，首先是拜登提出的税收改革，该改革将提高公司和资本利得税税率，并代表 FAAMG 股票的可能风险来源。如果拜登公司税计划全面实施，FAAMG 2022 年盈利将比市场普遍预期下降约 9%。FAAMG 约 55% 的收入来自国外。如果采用信封后面的方法，对 FAAMG 的每一部分收入适用 28% 的国内法定税率和 21% 的外国所得税率，其集体有效税率将提高 7% 至 24%（相比之下，标普500股票的中位数将提高 6 个百分点至 25%），并将使 FAAMG 2022 年的共识收益减少 9%（相比之下，标普500为-8%）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Separately, the FAAMG stocks are also vulnerable to higher capital gains rates. If the capital gains tax rate becomes set to rise in 2022, investors subject to the higher rate may choose to realize some of their substantial capital gains in 2021 at the lower current tax rate.<b>The FAAMG stocks have appreciated by $5 trillion during the last 5 years, accounting for 29% of the S&P 500 market cap increase during that time.</b>Needless to say, if there will be selling, it could be furious.</p><p><blockquote>另外，FAAMG 股票也容易受到更高资本利润率的影响。如果2022年资本利得税率将上升，受较高税率约束的投资者可能会选择在2021年以较低的现行税率实现部分可观的资本利得。<b>FAAMG 股票在过去 5 年中升值了 5 万亿美元，占同期标普500市值增长的 29%。</b>不用说，如果有抛售，它可能会愤怒。</blockquote></p><p> It doesn't end there: valuation multiples also pose a risk to the FAAMG stocks. Investor conversations around FAAMG inevitably turn to their valuations.<b>FAAMG trades at a forward P/E of 29x (90th percentile for the top 5 stocks since 1980), compared with 21x for the remaining 495 S&P 500 stocks.</b>This 34% P/E premium for the five largest stocks ranks in the 76th percentile since 1980.</p><p><blockquote>事情还不止于此：估值倍数还对 FAAMG 股票构成风险。围绕 FAAMG 的投资者对话不可避免地会转向他们的估值。<b>FAAMG 的远期市盈率为 29 倍（自 1980 年以来排名前 5 的股票的第 90 个百分位），而其余 495 只标普500股票的远期市盈率为 21 倍。</b>自1980年以来，五只最大股票34%的市盈率溢价排在第76个百分位。</blockquote></p><p> That said, if multiples were to shrink everything would crash, which is why Kostin writes that \"the current low level of interest rates and the fast pace of expected growth support the lofty multiples of the FAAMG stocks.\" While the nominal 10-year Treasury yield has risen this year, at 1.6% it remains extremely low in historical terms, Kostin also makes some other valuation observations:</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，如果市盈率缩水，一切都会崩溃，这就是为什么科斯汀写道，“当前的低利率水平和快速的预期增长速度支撑了 FAAMG 股票的高市盈率。”虽然名义 10 年期国债收益率今年有所上升，为 1.6%，从历史角度来看仍然极低，但 Kostin 还提出了一些其他估值观察：</blockquote></p><p> Low rates support the valuation of high growth, long duration stocks.FAAMG has an earnings yield gap (E/P less 10Y UST) of 191 bp, above the 40-yearaverage of 144 bp, indicating that the stocks are attractively valued adjusting for thelow level of rates. <b>Valuation on a growth-adjusted basis also looks more reasonable:FAAMG actually trades at a 14% PEG discount to the median S&P 500 stock (</b>1.7xvs. 1.9x). <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c59e188a9f4da2e363d8809ffd3a779\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"355\">While all this worked in an ultra low rates environment, rising interest rates represent a potential headwind to FAAMG returns in coming months (incidentally Goldman rates strategists forecast10-year US Treasury yields will rise by 34bps to 1.90% by the end of 2021). Furthermore,<b>all five FAAMG stocks have above-average duration compared with the Russell 1000, meaning they are especially sensitive to moves in long-term interest rates.</b>As yields rose sharply from November through March, FAAMG underperformed the S&P 500 by 7 pp (+21% vs. +14%). A similar period of rising rates in 2H 2021 would likely hamper FAAMG returns.</p><p><blockquote>低利率支持高增长、长期股票的估值。 FAAMG 的市盈率差距（市盈率减去 10 年增值税）为 191 个基点，高于 40 年平均水平 144 个基点，表明该股的估值具有吸引力根据低利率水平进行调整。<b>基于增长调整的估值看起来也更合理：FAAMG 的交易价格实际上比标普500股票中位数折扣 14%（</b>1.7xvs。1.9倍）。虽然所有这些都在超低利率环境下发挥作用，但利率上升可能会在未来几个月对 FAAMG 回报构成潜在阻力（顺便提一下，高盛利率策略师预测，到 2021 年底，10 年期美国国债收益率将上升 34 个基点至 1.90%）。此外，<b>与罗素 1000 指数相比，所有五只 FAAMG 股票的久期均高于平均水平，这意味着它们对长期利率变动特别敏感。</b>由于收益率从 11 月到 3 月大幅上升，FAAMG 的表现比标普500低 7 个百分点（+21% 对 +14%）。2021 年下半年类似的利率上升可能会阻碍 FAAMG 的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Putting all this together, Kostin writes that the greatest fundamental risk to the continued market leadership of the five largest companies \"appears to be the potential intervention of regulators.\" He adds that recent Biden administration appointments \"suggest some risk of a stricter regulatory regime and tighter antitrust enforcement.\" He has a point: with the exception of MSFT, the other four FAAMG stocks face a laundry list of legal battles and investigations over their market power and competitive practices ranging from commercial litigation to DoJ and FTC antitrust lawsuits to Congressional probes.</p><p><blockquote>科斯汀写道，综上所述，五大公司持续市场领导地位面临的最大根本风险“似乎是监管机构的潜在干预”。他补充说，拜登政府最近的任命“表明监管制度更加严格和反垄断执法更加严格的风险”。他说得有道理：除了 MSFT 之外，其他四只 FAAMG 股票都面临着一系列针对其市场力量和竞争行为的法律战和调查，从商业诉讼到 DoJ 和 FTC 反垄断诉讼再到国会调查。</blockquote></p><p> Then again, as Kostin concludes, his year-end 2021 S&P 500 index forecasts of 4300 and 4600 at the end of 2022 assume these companies generate sales and earnings in line with consensus expectations, their relative valuations remain stable, and therefore implicitly that antitrust actions have no major impact.</p><p><blockquote>话说回来，正如科斯汀总结的那样，他对 2021 年底标普500指数的预测为 4300 点，2022 年底为 4600 点，假设这些公司的销售额和盈利符合普遍预期，它们的相对估值保持稳定，因此隐含地认为反垄断行动没有重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> In short, Goldman clients can just relax and keep buying the FAAMG dip.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，高盛客户可以放松并继续在 FAAMG 下跌时买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Generals Will Be Back: Goldman Assures Its Clients That FAAMGs Will Make Triumphant Return<blockquote>将军们将回归：高盛向客户保证 FAAMG 将凯旋而归</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-10 15:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Earlier today, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategistMichael Wilson lookedat what was likely the highlight of Q1 earnings season, pointing out that \"the vaunted FAANMG stocks sold off on terrific 1Q earnings results after an outsized run into the event. This was... a reminder that stocks often peak on good news.\"</p><p><blockquote>今天早些时候，摩根士丹利首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊 (Michael Wilson) 关注了第一季度财报季可能出现的亮点，他指出，“吹嘘的 FAANMG 股票在遭遇大规模冲击后，因出色的第一季度盈利业绩而遭到抛售。这是……提醒人们，股票往往会因好消息而达到顶峰。”</blockquote></p><p> Not to make a too fine point out of it, suddenly everyone is focusing on the performance of the FAAMG stocks which, after soaring for much of 2020 when they returned 56% and accounted for 7% of the 18% S&P 500 return last year, have gone nowhere in recent months prompting concerns that it's all downhill from here.</p><p><blockquote>不用说得太精细，突然每个人都把注意力集中在 FAAMG 股票的表现上，该股票在 2020 年大部分时间飙升，回报率为 56%，占去年标普500 18% 回报率的 7%，但最近几个月却无处可去，这引发了人们的担忧，即一切都将从这里开始走下坡路。</blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, FAAMGs were also the topic of the latest weekly note from Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin, who writes that confronted with the prospect of decelerating US economic activity, the bank's clients are suddenly freaking out about a breakdown in the 5<i>Generals,</i>and are \"<i>asking about the potential for a transition in market leadership\"</i>even as \"<i>many investors have expressed the view that economic deceleration should support the outperformance of the largest “Big Tech” stocks in the market\",</i>a topic which Goldman analyzed recently and which view the bank supports.</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，FAAMG 也是高盛首席股票策略师 David Kostin 最新每周报告的主题，他写道，面对美国经济活动放缓的前景，该银行的客户突然对 5 美元的崩溃感到害怕<i>将军们，</i>并且是“<i>询问市场领导地位转变的潜力”</i>即使作为“<i>许多投资者表示，经济放缓应该会支撑市场上最大的“大型科技股”的优异表现。</i>高盛最近分析了这个话题，该银行也支持这个话题。</blockquote></p><p> Despite its ringing endorsement of FAAMGs, Kostin admits that one common concern with this thesis relates to the high current market concentration compared with history, to wit:<b>he five largest stocks in the S&P 500 represent 21% of index capitalization, significantly more than the long-term average of 14%, above the 18% at the peak of the Tech bubble in 2000, and only trailing the 25% level reached during mid-2020.</b>This large index weight of the top stocks is important because it serves as a practical headwind to continued appreciation given SEC restrictions on portfolio concentration that limit how much mutual funds can continue to buy them.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Kostin 对 FAAMGs 大力支持，但他承认，该论文的一个共同担忧是与历史相比，当前市场集中度较高，即：<b>标普500最大的五只股票占指数市值的21%，明显高于14%的长期平均水平，高于2000年科技泡沫顶峰时的18%，仅落后于2020年中期达到的25%水平。</b>顶级股票的这种大指数权重很重要，因为考虑到美国证券交易委员会对投资组合集中度的限制，限制了共同基金可以继续购买这些股票的数量，它是持续升值的实际阻力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d48151f4a9d0133be4773c6ff3e878b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"338\">Of course, there is a fundamental reason why investors have piled into the FAAMGs, first and foremost, the durability of the revenue streams of these firms during 2020 was in stark contrast with the extreme declines exhibited by many other businesses. Last year, sales for the median S&P 500 company collapsed at its nadir by 7% before partially recovering to post flat full-year growth. In contrast, the five FAAMG stocks collectively grew sales by 18% even at the point of maximum contraction for the economy in 2Q.<b>They grew full-year 2020 revenues by 21% vs. 2019</b>.</p><p><blockquote>当然，投资者涌入FAAMG有一个根本原因，首先也是最重要的是，这些公司在2020年的收入流的持久性与许多其他企业的极端下降形成了鲜明对比。去年，这家标普500公司的销售额在最低点暴跌了 7%，然后部分恢复，全年增长持平。相比之下，即使在第二季度经济最紧缩的时候，五只 FAAMG 股票的销售额也总体增长了 18%。<b>与 2019 年相比，2020 年全年收入增长了 21%</b>.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8da01105192f6119b179033fa5670b91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"330\">Q1 results show that the FAAMG growth persists. The median S&P 500 stock reported year/year sales growth of 9% and 57% of S&P 500 firms beat consensus sales estimates, with a median positive surprise of 4%. At the same time,<b>the five largest stocks reported aggregate 1Q 2021 sales of $321 billion –a remarkable $24 billion or 8% above consensus – for year/year growth of 41%</b>. For 2022, consensus expects the five stocks will post revenue and EPS growth of 14% and 10%, respectively, compared with 6% and 10% for the median S&P 500 stock.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度结果显示，FAAMG 的增长持续存在。标普500股票的同比销售额增长率中位数为9%，57%的标普500公司超出了普遍的销售预期，其中4%的正向惊喜中位数。同时，<b>五只最大的股票报告称，2021 年第一季度的总销售额为 3210 亿美元，比市场预期高出 240 亿美元，即 8%，同比增长 41%</b>. 到 2022 年，普遍预计这五只股票的收入和每股收益将分别增长 14% 和 10%，而标普500股票的中位数分别为 6% 和 10%。</blockquote></p><p> But according to Goldman it's not the topline growth that is the most distinguishing aspect of the FAAMG business models, but the amount and share of operating cash flow they devote to driving growth. During 2020, the five FAAMG stocks, spent $128 billion in R&D and another $104 billion on capex, accounting for 22% of the S&P 500 total. FAAMG posted a growth investment ratio of 64% over the last three years vs. 11% for the typical stock. As Goldman puts it,<i>\"they are investing their way to superior growth.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>但根据高盛的说法，FAAMG 商业模式最独特的方面不是营收增长，而是他们用于推动增长的运营现金流的数量和份额。2020年，FAAMG的五只股票在R&D上花费了1280亿美元，另外1040亿美元用于资本支出，占标普500总额的22%。FAAMG 在过去三年中的增长投资率为 64%，而典型股票的增长投资率为 11%。正如高盛所说，<i>“他们正在投资以实现卓越增长。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39ecf24db61c49e18cce9872ed4798fb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"355\">While those are the clearest positives propping up the FAAMGs, they are largely priced in; at the same time there is a list of sizable and growing risks, starting with Biden's proposed tax reform which would raise both corporate and capital gains tax rates and represent possible sources of risk for the FAAMG stocks. If the Biden corporate tax plan were fully enacted, FAAMG 2022E earnings would decrease by roughly 9% relative to consensus expectations. FAAMGs generate approximately 55% of income abroad. Using a back-of-the-envelope approach, applying the proposed 28% domestic statutory rate and 21% tax rate on foreign income to each portion of FAAMG’s income, their collective effective tax rate would rise by 7% to 24% (vs. +6 pp to 25% for the median S&P 500 stock) and would decrease consensus 2022 FAAMG earnings by 9% (vs. -8% for the S&P 500).</p><p><blockquote>虽然这些是支撑 FAAMG 的最明显的积极因素，但它们在很大程度上被定价了；与此同时，还有一系列相当大且不断增长的风险，首先是拜登提出的税收改革，该改革将提高公司和资本利得税税率，并代表 FAAMG 股票的可能风险来源。如果拜登公司税计划全面实施，FAAMG 2022 年盈利将比市场普遍预期下降约 9%。FAAMG 约 55% 的收入来自国外。如果采用信封后面的方法，对 FAAMG 的每一部分收入适用 28% 的国内法定税率和 21% 的外国所得税率，其集体有效税率将提高 7% 至 24%（相比之下，标普500股票的中位数将提高 6 个百分点至 25%），并将使 FAAMG 2022 年的共识收益减少 9%（相比之下，标普500为-8%）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Separately, the FAAMG stocks are also vulnerable to higher capital gains rates. If the capital gains tax rate becomes set to rise in 2022, investors subject to the higher rate may choose to realize some of their substantial capital gains in 2021 at the lower current tax rate.<b>The FAAMG stocks have appreciated by $5 trillion during the last 5 years, accounting for 29% of the S&P 500 market cap increase during that time.</b>Needless to say, if there will be selling, it could be furious.</p><p><blockquote>另外，FAAMG 股票也容易受到更高资本利润率的影响。如果2022年资本利得税率将上升，受较高税率约束的投资者可能会选择在2021年以较低的现行税率实现部分可观的资本利得。<b>FAAMG 股票在过去 5 年中升值了 5 万亿美元，占同期标普500市值增长的 29%。</b>不用说，如果有抛售，它可能会愤怒。</blockquote></p><p> It doesn't end there: valuation multiples also pose a risk to the FAAMG stocks. Investor conversations around FAAMG inevitably turn to their valuations.<b>FAAMG trades at a forward P/E of 29x (90th percentile for the top 5 stocks since 1980), compared with 21x for the remaining 495 S&P 500 stocks.</b>This 34% P/E premium for the five largest stocks ranks in the 76th percentile since 1980.</p><p><blockquote>事情还不止于此：估值倍数还对 FAAMG 股票构成风险。围绕 FAAMG 的投资者对话不可避免地会转向他们的估值。<b>FAAMG 的远期市盈率为 29 倍（自 1980 年以来排名前 5 的股票的第 90 个百分位），而其余 495 只标普500股票的远期市盈率为 21 倍。</b>自1980年以来，五只最大股票34%的市盈率溢价排在第76个百分位。</blockquote></p><p> That said, if multiples were to shrink everything would crash, which is why Kostin writes that \"the current low level of interest rates and the fast pace of expected growth support the lofty multiples of the FAAMG stocks.\" While the nominal 10-year Treasury yield has risen this year, at 1.6% it remains extremely low in historical terms, Kostin also makes some other valuation observations:</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，如果市盈率缩水，一切都会崩溃，这就是为什么科斯汀写道，“当前的低利率水平和快速的预期增长速度支撑了 FAAMG 股票的高市盈率。”虽然名义 10 年期国债收益率今年有所上升，为 1.6%，从历史角度来看仍然极低，但 Kostin 还提出了一些其他估值观察：</blockquote></p><p> Low rates support the valuation of high growth, long duration stocks.FAAMG has an earnings yield gap (E/P less 10Y UST) of 191 bp, above the 40-yearaverage of 144 bp, indicating that the stocks are attractively valued adjusting for thelow level of rates. <b>Valuation on a growth-adjusted basis also looks more reasonable:FAAMG actually trades at a 14% PEG discount to the median S&P 500 stock (</b>1.7xvs. 1.9x). <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c59e188a9f4da2e363d8809ffd3a779\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"355\">While all this worked in an ultra low rates environment, rising interest rates represent a potential headwind to FAAMG returns in coming months (incidentally Goldman rates strategists forecast10-year US Treasury yields will rise by 34bps to 1.90% by the end of 2021). Furthermore,<b>all five FAAMG stocks have above-average duration compared with the Russell 1000, meaning they are especially sensitive to moves in long-term interest rates.</b>As yields rose sharply from November through March, FAAMG underperformed the S&P 500 by 7 pp (+21% vs. +14%). A similar period of rising rates in 2H 2021 would likely hamper FAAMG returns.</p><p><blockquote>低利率支持高增长、长期股票的估值。 FAAMG 的市盈率差距（市盈率减去 10 年增值税）为 191 个基点，高于 40 年平均水平 144 个基点，表明该股的估值具有吸引力根据低利率水平进行调整。<b>基于增长调整的估值看起来也更合理：FAAMG 的交易价格实际上比标普500股票中位数折扣 14%（</b>1.7xvs。1.9倍）。虽然所有这些都在超低利率环境下发挥作用，但利率上升可能会在未来几个月对 FAAMG 回报构成潜在阻力（顺便提一下，高盛利率策略师预测，到 2021 年底，10 年期美国国债收益率将上升 34 个基点至 1.90%）。此外，<b>与罗素 1000 指数相比，所有五只 FAAMG 股票的久期均高于平均水平，这意味着它们对长期利率变动特别敏感。</b>由于收益率从 11 月到 3 月大幅上升，FAAMG 的表现比标普500低 7 个百分点（+21% 对 +14%）。2021 年下半年类似的利率上升可能会阻碍 FAAMG 的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Putting all this together, Kostin writes that the greatest fundamental risk to the continued market leadership of the five largest companies \"appears to be the potential intervention of regulators.\" He adds that recent Biden administration appointments \"suggest some risk of a stricter regulatory regime and tighter antitrust enforcement.\" He has a point: with the exception of MSFT, the other four FAAMG stocks face a laundry list of legal battles and investigations over their market power and competitive practices ranging from commercial litigation to DoJ and FTC antitrust lawsuits to Congressional probes.</p><p><blockquote>科斯汀写道，综上所述，五大公司持续市场领导地位面临的最大根本风险“似乎是监管机构的潜在干预”。他补充说，拜登政府最近的任命“表明监管制度更加严格和反垄断执法更加严格的风险”。他说得有道理：除了 MSFT 之外，其他四只 FAAMG 股票都面临着一系列针对其市场力量和竞争行为的法律战和调查，从商业诉讼到 DoJ 和 FTC 反垄断诉讼再到国会调查。</blockquote></p><p> Then again, as Kostin concludes, his year-end 2021 S&P 500 index forecasts of 4300 and 4600 at the end of 2022 assume these companies generate sales and earnings in line with consensus expectations, their relative valuations remain stable, and therefore implicitly that antitrust actions have no major impact.</p><p><blockquote>话说回来，正如科斯汀总结的那样，他对 2021 年底标普500指数的预测为 4300 点，2022 年底为 4600 点，假设这些公司的销售额和盈利符合普遍预期，它们的相对估值保持稳定，因此隐含地认为反垄断行动没有重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> In short, Goldman clients can just relax and keep buying the FAAMG dip.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，高盛客户可以放松并继续在 FAAMG 下跌时买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/generals-will-be-back-goldman-assures-its-clients-faamgs-will-make-triumphant-return\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AAPL":"苹果","FB":"ProShares S&P 500 Dynamic Buffer ETF","AMZN":"亚马逊","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/generals-will-be-back-goldman-assures-its-clients-faamgs-will-make-triumphant-return","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122258040","content_text":"Earlier today, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategistMichael Wilson lookedat what was likely the highlight of Q1 earnings season, pointing out that \"the vaunted FAANMG stocks sold off on terrific 1Q earnings results after an outsized run into the event. This was... a reminder that stocks often peak on good news.\"\nNot to make a too fine point out of it, suddenly everyone is focusing on the performance of the FAAMG stocks which, after soaring for much of 2020 when they returned 56% and accounted for 7% of the 18% S&P 500 return last year, have gone nowhere in recent months prompting concerns that it's all downhill from here.\nNot surprisingly, FAAMGs were also the topic of the latest weekly note from Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin, who writes that confronted with the prospect of decelerating US economic activity, the bank's clients are suddenly freaking out about a breakdown in the 5Generals,and are \"asking about the potential for a transition in market leadership\"even as \"many investors have expressed the view that economic deceleration should support the outperformance of the largest “Big Tech” stocks in the market\",a topic which Goldman analyzed recently and which view the bank supports.\nDespite its ringing endorsement of FAAMGs, Kostin admits that one common concern with this thesis relates to the high current market concentration compared with history, to wit:he five largest stocks in the S&P 500 represent 21% of index capitalization, significantly more than the long-term average of 14%, above the 18% at the peak of the Tech bubble in 2000, and only trailing the 25% level reached during mid-2020.This large index weight of the top stocks is important because it serves as a practical headwind to continued appreciation given SEC restrictions on portfolio concentration that limit how much mutual funds can continue to buy them.\nOf course, there is a fundamental reason why investors have piled into the FAAMGs, first and foremost, the durability of the revenue streams of these firms during 2020 was in stark contrast with the extreme declines exhibited by many other businesses. Last year, sales for the median S&P 500 company collapsed at its nadir by 7% before partially recovering to post flat full-year growth. In contrast, the five FAAMG stocks collectively grew sales by 18% even at the point of maximum contraction for the economy in 2Q.They grew full-year 2020 revenues by 21% vs. 2019.\nQ1 results show that the FAAMG growth persists. The median S&P 500 stock reported year/year sales growth of 9% and 57% of S&P 500 firms beat consensus sales estimates, with a median positive surprise of 4%. At the same time,the five largest stocks reported aggregate 1Q 2021 sales of $321 billion –a remarkable $24 billion or 8% above consensus – for year/year growth of 41%. For 2022, consensus expects the five stocks will post revenue and EPS growth of 14% and 10%, respectively, compared with 6% and 10% for the median S&P 500 stock.\nBut according to Goldman it's not the topline growth that is the most distinguishing aspect of the FAAMG business models, but the amount and share of operating cash flow they devote to driving growth. During 2020, the five FAAMG stocks, spent $128 billion in R&D and another $104 billion on capex, accounting for 22% of the S&P 500 total. FAAMG posted a growth investment ratio of 64% over the last three years vs. 11% for the typical stock. As Goldman puts it,\"they are investing their way to superior growth.\"\nWhile those are the clearest positives propping up the FAAMGs, they are largely priced in; at the same time there is a list of sizable and growing risks, starting with Biden's proposed tax reform which would raise both corporate and capital gains tax rates and represent possible sources of risk for the FAAMG stocks. If the Biden corporate tax plan were fully enacted, FAAMG 2022E earnings would decrease by roughly 9% relative to consensus expectations. FAAMGs generate approximately 55% of income abroad. Using a back-of-the-envelope approach, applying the proposed 28% domestic statutory rate and 21% tax rate on foreign income to each portion of FAAMG’s income, their collective effective tax rate would rise by 7% to 24% (vs. +6 pp to 25% for the median S&P 500 stock) and would decrease consensus 2022 FAAMG earnings by 9% (vs. -8% for the S&P 500).\nSeparately, the FAAMG stocks are also vulnerable to higher capital gains rates. If the capital gains tax rate becomes set to rise in 2022, investors subject to the higher rate may choose to realize some of their substantial capital gains in 2021 at the lower current tax rate.The FAAMG stocks have appreciated by $5 trillion during the last 5 years, accounting for 29% of the S&P 500 market cap increase during that time.Needless to say, if there will be selling, it could be furious.\nIt doesn't end there: valuation multiples also pose a risk to the FAAMG stocks. Investor conversations around FAAMG inevitably turn to their valuations.FAAMG trades at a forward P/E of 29x (90th percentile for the top 5 stocks since 1980), compared with 21x for the remaining 495 S&P 500 stocks.This 34% P/E premium for the five largest stocks ranks in the 76th percentile since 1980.\nThat said, if multiples were to shrink everything would crash, which is why Kostin writes that \"the current low level of interest rates and the fast pace of expected growth support the lofty multiples of the FAAMG stocks.\" While the nominal 10-year Treasury yield has risen this year, at 1.6% it remains extremely low in historical terms, Kostin also makes some other valuation observations:\n\n Low rates support the valuation of high growth, long duration stocks.FAAMG has an earnings yield gap (E/P less 10Y UST) of 191 bp, above the 40-yearaverage of 144 bp, indicating that the stocks are attractively valued adjusting for thelow level of rates.\n Valuation on a growth-adjusted basis also looks more reasonable:FAAMG actually trades at a 14% PEG discount to the median S&P 500 stock (1.7xvs. 1.9x).\n\nWhile all this worked in an ultra low rates environment, rising interest rates represent a potential headwind to FAAMG returns in coming months (incidentally Goldman rates strategists forecast10-year US Treasury yields will rise by 34bps to 1.90% by the end of 2021). Furthermore,all five FAAMG stocks have above-average duration compared with the Russell 1000, meaning they are especially sensitive to moves in long-term interest rates.As yields rose sharply from November through March, FAAMG underperformed the S&P 500 by 7 pp (+21% vs. +14%). A similar period of rising rates in 2H 2021 would likely hamper FAAMG returns.\nPutting all this together, Kostin writes that the greatest fundamental risk to the continued market leadership of the five largest companies \"appears to be the potential intervention of regulators.\" He adds that recent Biden administration appointments \"suggest some risk of a stricter regulatory regime and tighter antitrust enforcement.\" He has a point: with the exception of MSFT, the other four FAAMG stocks face a laundry list of legal battles and investigations over their market power and competitive practices ranging from commercial litigation to DoJ and FTC antitrust lawsuits to Congressional probes.\nThen again, as Kostin concludes, his year-end 2021 S&P 500 index forecasts of 4300 and 4600 at the end of 2022 assume these companies generate sales and earnings in line with consensus expectations, their relative valuations remain stable, and therefore implicitly that antitrust actions have no major impact.\nIn short, Goldman clients can just relax and keep buying the FAAMG dip.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":0.9,"FB":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"MSFT":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1612,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/190529839"}
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