The Generals Will Be Back: Goldman Assures Its Clients That FAAMGs Will Make Triumphant Return

zerohedge2021-05-10

Earlier today, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategistMichael Wilson lookedat what was likely the highlight of Q1 earnings season, pointing out that "the vaunted FAANMG stocks sold off on terrific 1Q...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

Victorng002
2021-05-10
Victorng002
Ok
荟荟hui
2021-05-10
荟荟hui
😊😎😎
Kelvinyoon26
2021-05-10
Kelvinyoon26
Like and comment
- KryZ:
  FAANG will always triumph in the longer term.

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122258040?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2021-05-10 15:27","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1122258040","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"The Generals Will Be Back: Goldman Assures Its Clients That FAAMGs Will Make Triumphant Return","media":"zerohedge","content":"<div>\nEarlier today, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategistMichael Wilson lookedat what was likely the highlight of Q1 earnings season, pointing out that \"the vaunted FAANMG stocks sold off on terrific 1Q...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/generals-will-be-back-goldman-assures-its-clients-faamgs-will-make-triumphant-return\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Generals Will Be Back: Goldman Assures Its Clients That FAAMGs Will Make Triumphant Return</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Generals Will Be Back: Goldman Assures Its Clients That FAAMGs Will Make Triumphant Return\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-10 15:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/generals-will-be-back-goldman-assures-its-clients-faamgs-will-make-triumphant-return>zerohedge</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nEarlier today, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategistMichael Wilson lookedat what was likely the highlight of Q1 earnings season, pointing out that \"the vaunted FAANMG stocks sold off on terrific 1Q...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/generals-will-be-back-goldman-assures-its-clients-faamgs-will-make-triumphant-return\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"FB","symbol_name":"ProShares S&P 500 Dynamic Buffer ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/generals-will-be-back-goldman-assures-its-clients-faamgs-will-make-triumphant-return","article_id":"1122258040","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122258040","pubTimestamp":1620631679,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Earlier today, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategistMichael Wilson lookedat what was likely the h","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zerohedge.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"FB":"ProShares S&P 500 Dynamic Buffer ETF","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","GOOGL":"谷歌A","MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌"},"translate_title":"将军们将会回来：高盛向其客户保证，FAAMGs将会凯旋而归","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"FB":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"MSFT":0.9,"GOOG":0.9},"content_text":"Earlier today, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategistMichael Wilson lookedat what was likely the highlight of Q1 earnings season, pointing out that \"the vaunted FAANMG stocks sold off on terrific 1Q earnings results after an outsized run into the event. This was... a reminder that stocks often peak on good news.\"\nNot to make a too fine point out of it, suddenly everyone is focusing on the performance of the FAAMG stocks which, after soaring for much of 2020 when they returned 56% and accounted for 7% of the 18% S&P 500 return last year, have gone nowhere in recent months prompting concerns that it's all downhill from here.\nNot surprisingly, FAAMGs were also the topic of the latest weekly note from Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin, who writes that confronted with the prospect of decelerating US economic activity, the bank's clients are suddenly freaking out about a breakdown in the 5Generals,and are \"asking about the potential for a transition in market leadership\"even as \"many investors have expressed the view that economic deceleration should support the outperformance of the largest “Big Tech” stocks in the market\",a topic which Goldman analyzed recently and which view the bank supports.\nDespite its ringing endorsement of FAAMGs, Kostin admits that one common concern with this thesis relates to the high current market concentration compared with history, to wit:he five largest stocks in the S&P 500 represent 21% of index capitalization, significantly more than the long-term average of 14%, above the 18% at the peak of the Tech bubble in 2000, and only trailing the 25% level reached during mid-2020.This large index weight of the top stocks is important because it serves as a practical headwind to continued appreciation given SEC restrictions on portfolio concentration that limit how much mutual funds can continue to buy them.\nOf course, there is a fundamental reason why investors have piled into the FAAMGs, first and foremost, the durability of the revenue streams of these firms during 2020 was in stark contrast with the extreme declines exhibited by many other businesses. Last year, sales for the median S&P 500 company collapsed at its nadir by 7% before partially recovering to post flat full-year growth. In contrast, the five FAAMG stocks collectively grew sales by 18% even at the point of maximum contraction for the economy in 2Q.They grew full-year 2020 revenues by 21% vs. 2019.\nQ1 results show that the FAAMG growth persists. The median S&P 500 stock reported year/year sales growth of 9% and 57% of S&P 500 firms beat consensus sales estimates, with a median positive surprise of 4%. At the same time,the five largest stocks reported aggregate 1Q 2021 sales of $321 billion –a remarkable $24 billion or 8% above consensus – for year/year growth of 41%. For 2022, consensus expects the five stocks will post revenue and EPS growth of 14% and 10%, respectively, compared with 6% and 10% for the median S&P 500 stock.\nBut according to Goldman it's not the topline growth that is the most distinguishing aspect of the FAAMG business models, but the amount and share of operating cash flow they devote to driving growth. During 2020, the five FAAMG stocks, spent $128 billion in R&D and another $104 billion on capex, accounting for 22% of the S&P 500 total. FAAMG posted a growth investment ratio of 64% over the last three years vs. 11% for the typical stock. As Goldman puts it,\"they are investing their way to superior growth.\"\nWhile those are the clearest positives propping up the FAAMGs, they are largely priced in; at the same time there is a list of sizable and growing risks, starting with Biden's proposed tax reform which would raise both corporate and capital gains tax rates and represent possible sources of risk for the FAAMG stocks. If the Biden corporate tax plan were fully enacted, FAAMG 2022E earnings would decrease by roughly 9% relative to consensus expectations. FAAMGs generate approximately 55% of income abroad. Using a back-of-the-envelope approach, applying the proposed 28% domestic statutory rate and 21% tax rate on foreign income to each portion of FAAMG’s income, their collective effective tax rate would rise by 7% to 24% (vs. +6 pp to 25% for the median S&P 500 stock) and would decrease consensus 2022 FAAMG earnings by 9% (vs. -8% for the S&P 500).\nSeparately, the FAAMG stocks are also vulnerable to higher capital gains rates. If the capital gains tax rate becomes set to rise in 2022, investors subject to the higher rate may choose to realize some of their substantial capital gains in 2021 at the lower current tax rate.The FAAMG stocks have appreciated by $5 trillion during the last 5 years, accounting for 29% of the S&P 500 market cap increase during that time.Needless to say, if there will be selling, it could be furious.\nIt doesn't end there: valuation multiples also pose a risk to the FAAMG stocks. Investor conversations around FAAMG inevitably turn to their valuations.FAAMG trades at a forward P/E of 29x (90th percentile for the top 5 stocks since 1980), compared with 21x for the remaining 495 S&P 500 stocks.This 34% P/E premium for the five largest stocks ranks in the 76th percentile since 1980.\nThat said, if multiples were to shrink everything would crash, which is why Kostin writes that \"the current low level of interest rates and the fast pace of expected growth support the lofty multiples of the FAAMG stocks.\" While the nominal 10-year Treasury yield has risen this year, at 1.6% it remains extremely low in historical terms, Kostin also makes some other valuation observations:\n\n Low rates support the valuation of high growth, long duration stocks.FAAMG has an earnings yield gap (E/P less 10Y UST) of 191 bp, above the 40-yearaverage of 144 bp, indicating that the stocks are attractively valued adjusting for thelow level of rates.\n Valuation on a growth-adjusted basis also looks more reasonable:FAAMG actually trades at a 14% PEG discount to the median S&P 500 stock (1.7xvs. 1.9x).\n\nWhile all this worked in an ultra low rates environment, rising interest rates represent a potential headwind to FAAMG returns in coming months (incidentally Goldman rates strategists forecast10-year US Treasury yields will rise by 34bps to 1.90% by the end of 2021). Furthermore,all five FAAMG stocks have above-average duration compared with the Russell 1000, meaning they are especially sensitive to moves in long-term interest rates.As yields rose sharply from November through March, FAAMG underperformed the S&P 500 by 7 pp (+21% vs. +14%). A similar period of rising rates in 2H 2021 would likely hamper FAAMG returns.\nPutting all this together, Kostin writes that the greatest fundamental risk to the continued market leadership of the five largest companies \"appears to be the potential intervention of regulators.\" He adds that recent Biden administration appointments \"suggest some risk of a stricter regulatory regime and tighter antitrust enforcement.\" He has a point: with the exception of MSFT, the other four FAAMG stocks face a laundry list of legal battles and investigations over their market power and competitive practices ranging from commercial litigation to DoJ and FTC antitrust lawsuits to Congressional probes.\nThen again, as Kostin concludes, his year-end 2021 S&P 500 index forecasts of 4300 and 4600 at the end of 2022 assume these companies generate sales and earnings in line with consensus expectations, their relative valuations remain stable, and therefore implicitly that antitrust actions have no major impact.\nIn short, Goldman clients can just relax and keep buying the FAAMG dip.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":190550983,"gmtCreate":1620636609542,"gmtModify":1634197513978,"author":{"id":"3573037475502917","authorId":"3573037475502917","name":"Victorng002","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573037475502917","authorIdStr":"3573037475502917"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190550983","repostId":1122258040,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122258040","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620631679,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122258040?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-10 15:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Generals Will Be Back: Goldman Assures Its Clients That FAAMGs Will Make Triumphant Return<blockquote>将军们将会回来：高盛向客户保证FAAMGs将凯旋</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122258040","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Earlier today, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategistMichael Wilson lookedat what was likely the h","content":"Earlier today, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategistMichael Wilson lookedat what was likely the highlight of Q1 earnings season, pointing out that \"the vaunted FAANMG stocks sold off on terrific 1Q earnings results after an outsized run into the event. This was... a reminder that stocks often peak on good news.\"<blockquote>今天早些时候，摩根士丹利首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊(Michael Wilson)研究了第一季度财报季的亮点，他指出，“备受吹捧的FAANMG股票在经历了一次大规模上涨后，因出色的第一季度财报业绩而遭到抛售。这是……提醒人们股市往往会因好消息而见顶。”</blockquote> Not to make a too fine point out of it, suddenly everyone is focusing on the performance of the FAAMG stocks which, after soaring for much of 2020 when they returned 56% and accounted for 7% of the 18% S&amp;P 500 return last year, have gone nowhere in recent months prompting concerns that it's all downhill from here.<blockquote>不要说得太好，突然间，每个人都开始关注FAAMG股票的表现，这些股票在2020年的大部分时间里飙升，回报率为56%，占去年标普500 18%回报率的7%，最近几个月毫无进展，引发了人们对从这里开始一切都在走下坡路的担忧。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, FAAMGs were also the topic of the latest weekly note from Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin, who writes that confronted with the prospect of decelerating US economic activity, the bank's clients are suddenly freaking out about a breakdown in the 5Generals,and are \"asking about the potential for a transition in market leadership\"even as \"many investors have expressed the view that economic deceleration should support the outperformance of the largest “Big Tech” stocks in the market\",a topic which Goldman analyzed recently and which view the bank supports.<blockquote>毫不奇怪，FAAMG也是高盛首席股票策略师David Kostin最新每周报告的主题，他写道，面对美国经济活动减速的前景，该银行的客户突然对5月份的崩溃感到恐慌将军们，并且是“询问市场领导地位转变的潜力”甚至作为“许多投资者表示，经济减速应该会支持市场上最大的“大型科技”股票的跑赢大盘，高盛最近分析了这一主题，并支持该银行的观点。</blockquote> Despite its ringing endorsement of FAAMGs, Kostin admits that one common concern with this thesis relates to the high current market concentration compared with history, to wit:he five largest stocks in the S&amp;P 500 represent 21% of index capitalization, significantly more than the long-term average of 14%, above the 18% at the peak of the Tech bubble in 2000, and only trailing the 25% level reached during mid-2020.This large index weight of the top stocks is important because it serves as a practical headwind to continued appreciation given SEC restrictions on portfolio concentration that limit how much mutual funds can continue to buy them.<blockquote>尽管Kostin强烈支持FAAMGs，但他承认，与历史相比，这篇论文的一个共同担忧与当前市场集中度较高有关，即：标普500最大的五只股票占指数市值的21%，明显高于14%的长期平均水平，高于2000年科技泡沫顶峰时的18%，仅落后于2020年中期达到的25%水平。顶级股票的较大指数权重很重要，因为鉴于美国证券交易委员会对投资组合集中度的限制限制了共同基金可以继续购买这些股票的数量，这实际上是持续升值的阻力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d48151f4a9d0133be4773c6ff3e878b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"338\">Of course, there is a fundamental reason why investors have piled into the FAAMGs, first and foremost, the durability of the revenue streams of these firms during 2020 was in stark contrast with the extreme declines exhibited by many other businesses. Last year, sales for the median S&amp;P 500 company collapsed at its nadir by 7% before partially recovering to post flat full-year growth. In contrast, the five FAAMG stocks collectively grew sales by 18% even at the point of maximum contraction for the economy in 2Q.They grew full-year 2020 revenues by 21% vs. 2019.<blockquote>当然，投资者涌入FAAMG有一个根本原因，首先也是最重要的，这些公司在2020年收入流的持久性与许多其他企业表现出的极端下滑形成鲜明对比。去年，标普500中位数公司的销售额跌至最低点7%，随后部分复苏，全年增长持平。相比之下，即使在第二季度经济最大收缩的时候，五只FAAMG股票的销售额也合计增长了18%。他们2020年全年收入较2019年增长21%.</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8da01105192f6119b179033fa5670b91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"330\">Q1 results show that the FAAMG growth persists. The median S&amp;P 500 stock reported year/year sales growth of 9% and 57% of S&amp;P 500 firms beat consensus sales estimates, with a median positive surprise of 4%. At the same time,the five largest stocks reported aggregate 1Q 2021 sales of $321 billion –a remarkable $24 billion or 8% above consensus – for year/year growth of 41%. For 2022, consensus expects the five stocks will post revenue and EPS growth of 14% and 10%, respectively, compared with 6% and 10% for the median S&amp;P 500 stock.<blockquote>第一季度结果显示，FAAMG持续增长。标普500股票报告的年销售额增长中位数为9%，57%的标普500公司超出了普遍的销售预期，积极的惊喜中位数为4%。同时，五只最大的股票报告2021年第一季度总销售额为3,210亿美元，比市场预期高出240亿美元或8%，同比增长41%2022年，市场普遍预计这五只股票的收入和每股收益将分别增长14%和10%，而标普500股票的中位数分别为6%和10%。</blockquote> But according to Goldman it's not the topline growth that is the most distinguishing aspect of the FAAMG business models, but the amount and share of operating cash flow they devote to driving growth. During 2020, the five FAAMG stocks, spent $128 billion in R&amp;D and another $104 billion on capex, accounting for 22% of the S&amp;P 500 total. FAAMG posted a growth investment ratio of 64% over the last three years vs. 11% for the typical stock. As Goldman puts it,\"they are investing their way to superior growth.\"<blockquote>但高盛表示，FAAMG商业模式最显着的方面并不是营收增长，而是它们用于推动增长的运营现金流的数量和份额。2020年，FAAMG的五只股票在研发上花费了1280亿美元，在资本支出上花费了1040亿美元，占标普500总额的22%。FAAMG公布过去三年的增长投资比率为64%，而典型股票的增长投资比率为11%。正如高盛所说，“他们正在通过投资实现卓越的增长。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39ecf24db61c49e18cce9872ed4798fb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"355\">While those are the clearest positives propping up the FAAMGs, they are largely priced in; at the same time there is a list of sizable and growing risks, starting with Biden's proposed tax reform which would raise both corporate and capital gains tax rates and represent possible sources of risk for the FAAMG stocks. If the Biden corporate tax plan were fully enacted, FAAMG 2022E earnings would decrease by roughly 9% relative to consensus expectations. FAAMGs generate approximately 55% of income abroad. Using a back-of-the-envelope approach, applying the proposed 28% domestic statutory rate and 21% tax rate on foreign income to each portion of FAAMG’s income, their collective effective tax rate would rise by 7% to 24% (vs. +6 pp to 25% for the median S&amp;P 500 stock) and would decrease consensus 2022 FAAMG earnings by 9% (vs. -8% for the S&amp;P 500).<blockquote>虽然这些是支撑FAAMG的最明显的积极因素，但它们在很大程度上已被定价；与此同时，还有一系列相当大且不断增长的风险，首先是拜登提出的税收改革，该改革将提高企业和资本利得税率，并代表FAAMG股票的可能风险来源。如果拜登企业税计划全面实施，FAAMG 2022E盈利将比普遍预期下降约9%。FAAMG大约55%的收入来自国外。采用粗略的方法，将拟议的28%国内法定税率和21%国外收入税率应用于FAAMG收入的每一部分，其集体有效税率将上升7%至24%（相比之下，标普500股票中位数为+6个百分点至25%），并将使2022年FAAMG普遍盈利减少9%（而标普500为-8%）。</blockquote> Separately, the FAAMG stocks are also vulnerable to higher capital gains rates. If the capital gains tax rate becomes set to rise in 2022, investors subject to the higher rate may choose to realize some of their substantial capital gains in 2021 at the lower current tax rate.The FAAMG stocks have appreciated by $5 trillion during the last 5 years, accounting for 29% of the S&amp;P 500 market cap increase during that time.Needless to say, if there will be selling, it could be furious.<blockquote>另外，FAAMG股票也容易受到较高资本收益率的影响。如果资本利得税率将在2022年上升，受较高税率约束的投资者可能会选择在2021年以较低的当前税率实现部分巨额资本利得。FAAMG股票在过去5年中升值了5万亿美元，占同期标普500市值增幅的29%。不用说，如果有抛售，它可能会非常愤怒。</blockquote> It doesn't end there: valuation multiples also pose a risk to the FAAMG stocks. Investor conversations around FAAMG inevitably turn to their valuations.FAAMG trades at a forward P/E of 29x (90th percentile for the top 5 stocks since 1980), compared with 21x for the remaining 495 S&amp;P 500 stocks.This 34% P/E premium for the five largest stocks ranks in the 76th percentile since 1980.<blockquote>事情还不止于此：估值倍数也对FAAMG股票构成风险。投资者围绕FAAMG的讨论不可避免地转向他们的估值。FAAMG的预期市盈率为29倍（自1980年以来排名前5的股票的第90百分位），而其余495只标普500股票的预期市盈率为21倍。五只最大股票34%的市盈率溢价自1980年以来排名第76百分位。</blockquote> That said, if multiples were to shrink everything would crash, which is why Kostin writes that \"the current low level of interest rates and the fast pace of expected growth support the lofty multiples of the FAAMG stocks.\" While the nominal 10-year Treasury yield has risen this year, at 1.6% it remains extremely low in historical terms, Kostin also makes some other valuation observations:<blockquote>也就是说，如果市盈率缩水，一切都会崩溃，这就是为什么科斯汀写道，“当前的低利率水平和预期增长的快速步伐支撑了FAAMG股票的高市盈率。”尽管名义10年期国债收益率今年有所上升，但从历史角度来看仍处于极低水平，但科斯汀还提出了其他一些估值观察：</blockquote> Low rates support the valuation of high growth, long duration stocks.FAAMG has an earnings yield gap (E/P less 10Y UST) of 191 bp, above the 40-yearaverage of 144 bp, indicating that the stocks are attractively valued adjusting for thelow level of rates. Valuation on a growth-adjusted basis also looks more reasonable:FAAMG actually trades at a 14% PEG discount to the median S&amp;P 500 stock (1.7xvs. 1.9x). <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c59e188a9f4da2e363d8809ffd3a779\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"355\">While all this worked in an ultra low rates environment, rising interest rates represent a potential headwind to FAAMG returns in coming months (incidentally Goldman rates strategists forecast10-year US Treasury yields will rise by 34bps to 1.90% by the end of 2021). Furthermore,all five FAAMG stocks have above-average duration compared with the Russell 1000, meaning they are especially sensitive to moves in long-term interest rates.As yields rose sharply from November through March, FAAMG underperformed the S&amp;P 500 by 7 pp (+21% vs. +14%). A similar period of rising rates in 2H 2021 would likely hamper FAAMG returns.<blockquote>低利率支持高增长、长期股票的估值。FAAMG的盈利收益率差距（E/P减去10年期UST）为191个基点，高于144个基点的40年平均水平，表明调整后这些股票的估值具有吸引力利率水平。经增长调整后的估值看起来也更合理：FAAMG的交易价格实际上比标普500股票中位数折价14%（1.7 XVS。1.9 x)。虽然所有这些都在超低利率环境下发挥作用，但利率上升对未来几个月FAAMG回报构成了潜在的阻力（顺便说一句，高盛利率策略师预测，到2021年底，10年期美国国债收益率将上升34个基点至1.90%）。此外，与罗素1000指数相比，所有五只FAAMG股票的久期均高于平均水平，这意味着它们对长期利率的变动特别敏感。随着11月至3月收益率大幅上升，FAAMG的表现落后标普500 7个百分点（+21%vs.+14%）。2021年下半年类似的利率上升时期可能会阻碍FAAMG的回报。</blockquote> Putting all this together, Kostin writes that the greatest fundamental risk to the continued market leadership of the five largest companies \"appears to be the potential intervention of regulators.\" He adds that recent Biden administration appointments \"suggest some risk of a stricter regulatory regime and tighter antitrust enforcement.\" He has a point: with the exception of MSFT, the other four FAAMG stocks face a laundry list of legal battles and investigations over their market power and competitive practices ranging from commercial litigation to DoJ and FTC antitrust lawsuits to Congressional probes.<blockquote>科斯汀写道，将所有这些放在一起，五大公司继续保持市场领先地位的最大根本风险“似乎是监管机构的潜在干预”。他补充说，拜登政府最近的任命“表明了更严格的监管制度和更严格的反垄断执法的一些风险”。他说得有道理：除MSFT外，其他四只FAAMG股票因其市场力量和竞争行为而面临一系列法律斗争和调查，从商业诉讼到DoJ和FTC反垄断诉讼再到国会调查。</blockquote> Then again, as Kostin concludes, his year-end 2021 S&amp;P 500 index forecasts of 4300 and 4600 at the end of 2022 assume these companies generate sales and earnings in line with consensus expectations, their relative valuations remain stable, and therefore implicitly that antitrust actions have no major impact.<blockquote>话又说回来，正如Kostin总结的那样，他对2021年底标普500指数的预测为4300和2022年底的4600假设这些公司的销售额和盈利符合普遍预期，它们的相对估值保持稳定，因此隐含着反垄断行动没有重大影响。</blockquote> In short, Goldman clients can just relax and keep buying the FAAMG dip.<blockquote>简而言之，高盛客户可以放松并继续逢低买入FAAMG。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Generals Will Be Back: Goldman Assures Its Clients That FAAMGs Will Make Triumphant Return<blockquote>将军们将会回来：高盛向客户保证FAAMGs将凯旋</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Generals Will Be Back: Goldman Assures Its Clients That FAAMGs Will Make Triumphant Return<blockquote>将军们将会回来：高盛向客户保证FAAMGs将凯旋</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-05-10 15:27\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nEarlier today, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategistMichael Wilson lookedat what was likely the highlight of Q1 earnings season, pointing out that \"the vaunted FAANMG stocks sold off on terrific 1Q earnings results after an outsized run into the event. This was... a reminder that stocks often peak on good news.\"<blockquote>今天早些时候，摩根士丹利首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊(Michael Wilson)研究了第一季度财报季的亮点，他指出，“备受吹捧的FAANMG股票在经历了一次大规模上涨后，因出色的第一季度财报业绩而遭到抛售。这是……提醒人们股市往往会因好消息而见顶。”</blockquote> Not to make a too fine point out of it, suddenly everyone is focusing on the performance of the FAAMG stocks which, after soaring for much of 2020 when they returned 56% and accounted for 7% of the 18% S&amp;P 500 return last year, have gone nowhere in recent months prompting concerns that it's all downhill from here.<blockquote>不要说得太好，突然间，每个人都开始关注FAAMG股票的表现，这些股票在2020年的大部分时间里飙升，回报率为56%，占去年标普500 18%回报率的7%，最近几个月毫无进展，引发了人们对从这里开始一切都在走下坡路的担忧。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, FAAMGs were also the topic of the latest weekly note from Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin, who writes that confronted with the prospect of decelerating US economic activity, the bank's clients are suddenly freaking out about a breakdown in the 5Generals,and are \"asking about the potential for a transition in market leadership\"even as \"many investors have expressed the view that economic deceleration should support the outperformance of the largest “Big Tech” stocks in the market\",a topic which Goldman analyzed recently and which view the bank supports.<blockquote>毫不奇怪，FAAMG也是高盛首席股票策略师David Kostin最新每周报告的主题，他写道，面对美国经济活动减速的前景，该银行的客户突然对5月份的崩溃感到恐慌将军们，并且是“询问市场领导地位转变的潜力”甚至作为“许多投资者表示，经济减速应该会支持市场上最大的“大型科技”股票的跑赢大盘，高盛最近分析了这一主题，并支持该银行的观点。</blockquote> Despite its ringing endorsement of FAAMGs, Kostin admits that one common concern with this thesis relates to the high current market concentration compared with history, to wit:he five largest stocks in the S&amp;P 500 represent 21% of index capitalization, significantly more than the long-term average of 14%, above the 18% at the peak of the Tech bubble in 2000, and only trailing the 25% level reached during mid-2020.This large index weight of the top stocks is important because it serves as a practical headwind to continued appreciation given SEC restrictions on portfolio concentration that limit how much mutual funds can continue to buy them.<blockquote>尽管Kostin强烈支持FAAMGs，但他承认，与历史相比，这篇论文的一个共同担忧与当前市场集中度较高有关，即：标普500最大的五只股票占指数市值的21%，明显高于14%的长期平均水平，高于2000年科技泡沫顶峰时的18%，仅落后于2020年中期达到的25%水平。顶级股票的较大指数权重很重要，因为鉴于美国证券交易委员会对投资组合集中度的限制限制了共同基金可以继续购买这些股票的数量，这实际上是持续升值的阻力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d48151f4a9d0133be4773c6ff3e878b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"338\">Of course, there is a fundamental reason why investors have piled into the FAAMGs, first and foremost, the durability of the revenue streams of these firms during 2020 was in stark contrast with the extreme declines exhibited by many other businesses. Last year, sales for the median S&amp;P 500 company collapsed at its nadir by 7% before partially recovering to post flat full-year growth. In contrast, the five FAAMG stocks collectively grew sales by 18% even at the point of maximum contraction for the economy in 2Q.They grew full-year 2020 revenues by 21% vs. 2019.<blockquote>当然，投资者涌入FAAMG有一个根本原因，首先也是最重要的，这些公司在2020年收入流的持久性与许多其他企业表现出的极端下滑形成鲜明对比。去年，标普500中位数公司的销售额跌至最低点7%，随后部分复苏，全年增长持平。相比之下，即使在第二季度经济最大收缩的时候，五只FAAMG股票的销售额也合计增长了18%。他们2020年全年收入较2019年增长21%.</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8da01105192f6119b179033fa5670b91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"330\">Q1 results show that the FAAMG growth persists. The median S&amp;P 500 stock reported year/year sales growth of 9% and 57% of S&amp;P 500 firms beat consensus sales estimates, with a median positive surprise of 4%. At the same time,the five largest stocks reported aggregate 1Q 2021 sales of $321 billion –a remarkable $24 billion or 8% above consensus – for year/year growth of 41%. For 2022, consensus expects the five stocks will post revenue and EPS growth of 14% and 10%, respectively, compared with 6% and 10% for the median S&amp;P 500 stock.<blockquote>第一季度结果显示，FAAMG持续增长。标普500股票报告的年销售额增长中位数为9%，57%的标普500公司超出了普遍的销售预期，积极的惊喜中位数为4%。同时，五只最大的股票报告2021年第一季度总销售额为3,210亿美元，比市场预期高出240亿美元或8%，同比增长41%2022年，市场普遍预计这五只股票的收入和每股收益将分别增长14%和10%，而标普500股票的中位数分别为6%和10%。</blockquote> But according to Goldman it's not the topline growth that is the most distinguishing aspect of the FAAMG business models, but the amount and share of operating cash flow they devote to driving growth. During 2020, the five FAAMG stocks, spent $128 billion in R&amp;D and another $104 billion on capex, accounting for 22% of the S&amp;P 500 total. FAAMG posted a growth investment ratio of 64% over the last three years vs. 11% for the typical stock. As Goldman puts it,\"they are investing their way to superior growth.\"<blockquote>但高盛表示，FAAMG商业模式最显着的方面并不是营收增长，而是它们用于推动增长的运营现金流的数量和份额。2020年，FAAMG的五只股票在研发上花费了1280亿美元，在资本支出上花费了1040亿美元，占标普500总额的22%。FAAMG公布过去三年的增长投资比率为64%，而典型股票的增长投资比率为11%。正如高盛所说，“他们正在通过投资实现卓越的增长。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39ecf24db61c49e18cce9872ed4798fb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"355\">While those are the clearest positives propping up the FAAMGs, they are largely priced in; at the same time there is a list of sizable and growing risks, starting with Biden's proposed tax reform which would raise both corporate and capital gains tax rates and represent possible sources of risk for the FAAMG stocks. If the Biden corporate tax plan were fully enacted, FAAMG 2022E earnings would decrease by roughly 9% relative to consensus expectations. FAAMGs generate approximately 55% of income abroad. Using a back-of-the-envelope approach, applying the proposed 28% domestic statutory rate and 21% tax rate on foreign income to each portion of FAAMG’s income, their collective effective tax rate would rise by 7% to 24% (vs. +6 pp to 25% for the median S&amp;P 500 stock) and would decrease consensus 2022 FAAMG earnings by 9% (vs. -8% for the S&amp;P 500).<blockquote>虽然这些是支撑FAAMG的最明显的积极因素，但它们在很大程度上已被定价；与此同时，还有一系列相当大且不断增长的风险，首先是拜登提出的税收改革，该改革将提高企业和资本利得税率，并代表FAAMG股票的可能风险来源。如果拜登企业税计划全面实施，FAAMG 2022E盈利将比普遍预期下降约9%。FAAMG大约55%的收入来自国外。采用粗略的方法，将拟议的28%国内法定税率和21%国外收入税率应用于FAAMG收入的每一部分，其集体有效税率将上升7%至24%（相比之下，标普500股票中位数为+6个百分点至25%），并将使2022年FAAMG普遍盈利减少9%（而标普500为-8%）。</blockquote> Separately, the FAAMG stocks are also vulnerable to higher capital gains rates. If the capital gains tax rate becomes set to rise in 2022, investors subject to the higher rate may choose to realize some of their substantial capital gains in 2021 at the lower current tax rate.The FAAMG stocks have appreciated by $5 trillion during the last 5 years, accounting for 29% of the S&amp;P 500 market cap increase during that time.Needless to say, if there will be selling, it could be furious.<blockquote>另外，FAAMG股票也容易受到较高资本收益率的影响。如果资本利得税率将在2022年上升，受较高税率约束的投资者可能会选择在2021年以较低的当前税率实现部分巨额资本利得。FAAMG股票在过去5年中升值了5万亿美元，占同期标普500市值增幅的29%。不用说，如果有抛售，它可能会非常愤怒。</blockquote> It doesn't end there: valuation multiples also pose a risk to the FAAMG stocks. Investor conversations around FAAMG inevitably turn to their valuations.FAAMG trades at a forward P/E of 29x (90th percentile for the top 5 stocks since 1980), compared with 21x for the remaining 495 S&amp;P 500 stocks.This 34% P/E premium for the five largest stocks ranks in the 76th percentile since 1980.<blockquote>事情还不止于此：估值倍数也对FAAMG股票构成风险。投资者围绕FAAMG的讨论不可避免地转向他们的估值。FAAMG的预期市盈率为29倍（自1980年以来排名前5的股票的第90百分位），而其余495只标普500股票的预期市盈率为21倍。五只最大股票34%的市盈率溢价自1980年以来排名第76百分位。</blockquote> That said, if multiples were to shrink everything would crash, which is why Kostin writes that \"the current low level of interest rates and the fast pace of expected growth support the lofty multiples of the FAAMG stocks.\" While the nominal 10-year Treasury yield has risen this year, at 1.6% it remains extremely low in historical terms, Kostin also makes some other valuation observations:<blockquote>也就是说，如果市盈率缩水，一切都会崩溃，这就是为什么科斯汀写道，“当前的低利率水平和预期增长的快速步伐支撑了FAAMG股票的高市盈率。”尽管名义10年期国债收益率今年有所上升，但从历史角度来看仍处于极低水平，但科斯汀还提出了其他一些估值观察：</blockquote> Low rates support the valuation of high growth, long duration stocks.FAAMG has an earnings yield gap (E/P less 10Y UST) of 191 bp, above the 40-yearaverage of 144 bp, indicating that the stocks are attractively valued adjusting for thelow level of rates. Valuation on a growth-adjusted basis also looks more reasonable:FAAMG actually trades at a 14% PEG discount to the median S&amp;P 500 stock (1.7xvs. 1.9x). <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c59e188a9f4da2e363d8809ffd3a779\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"355\">While all this worked in an ultra low rates environment, rising interest rates represent a potential headwind to FAAMG returns in coming months (incidentally Goldman rates strategists forecast10-year US Treasury yields will rise by 34bps to 1.90% by the end of 2021). Furthermore,all five FAAMG stocks have above-average duration compared with the Russell 1000, meaning they are especially sensitive to moves in long-term interest rates.As yields rose sharply from November through March, FAAMG underperformed the S&amp;P 500 by 7 pp (+21% vs. +14%). A similar period of rising rates in 2H 2021 would likely hamper FAAMG returns.<blockquote>低利率支持高增长、长期股票的估值。FAAMG的盈利收益率差距（E/P减去10年期UST）为191个基点，高于144个基点的40年平均水平，表明调整后这些股票的估值具有吸引力利率水平。经增长调整后的估值看起来也更合理：FAAMG的交易价格实际上比标普500股票中位数折价14%（1.7 XVS。1.9 x)。虽然所有这些都在超低利率环境下发挥作用，但利率上升对未来几个月FAAMG回报构成了潜在的阻力（顺便说一句，高盛利率策略师预测，到2021年底，10年期美国国债收益率将上升34个基点至1.90%）。此外，与罗素1000指数相比，所有五只FAAMG股票的久期均高于平均水平，这意味着它们对长期利率的变动特别敏感。随着11月至3月收益率大幅上升，FAAMG的表现落后标普500 7个百分点（+21%vs.+14%）。2021年下半年类似的利率上升时期可能会阻碍FAAMG的回报。</blockquote> Putting all this together, Kostin writes that the greatest fundamental risk to the continued market leadership of the five largest companies \"appears to be the potential intervention of regulators.\" He adds that recent Biden administration appointments \"suggest some risk of a stricter regulatory regime and tighter antitrust enforcement.\" He has a point: with the exception of MSFT, the other four FAAMG stocks face a laundry list of legal battles and investigations over their market power and competitive practices ranging from commercial litigation to DoJ and FTC antitrust lawsuits to Congressional probes.<blockquote>科斯汀写道，将所有这些放在一起，五大公司继续保持市场领先地位的最大根本风险“似乎是监管机构的潜在干预”。他补充说，拜登政府最近的任命“表明了更严格的监管制度和更严格的反垄断执法的一些风险”。他说得有道理：除MSFT外，其他四只FAAMG股票因其市场力量和竞争行为而面临一系列法律斗争和调查，从商业诉讼到DoJ和FTC反垄断诉讼再到国会调查。</blockquote> Then again, as Kostin concludes, his year-end 2021 S&amp;P 500 index forecasts of 4300 and 4600 at the end of 2022 assume these companies generate sales and earnings in line with consensus expectations, their relative valuations remain stable, and therefore implicitly that antitrust actions have no major impact.<blockquote>话又说回来，正如Kostin总结的那样，他对2021年底标普500指数的预测为4300和2022年底的4600假设这些公司的销售额和盈利符合普遍预期，它们的相对估值保持稳定，因此隐含着反垄断行动没有重大影响。</blockquote> In short, Goldman clients can just relax and keep buying the FAAMG dip.<blockquote>简而言之，高盛客户可以放松并继续逢低买入FAAMG。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/generals-will-be-back-goldman-assures-its-clients-faamgs-will-make-triumphant-return\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FB":"ProShares S&P 500 Dynamic Buffer ETF","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","GOOGL":"谷歌A","MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/generals-will-be-back-goldman-assures-its-clients-faamgs-will-make-triumphant-return","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122258040","content_text":"Earlier today, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategistMichael Wilson lookedat what was likely the highlight of Q1 earnings season, pointing out that \"the vaunted FAANMG stocks sold off on terrific 1Q earnings results after an outsized run into the event. This was... a reminder that stocks often peak on good news.\"\nNot to make a too fine point out of it, suddenly everyone is focusing on the performance of the FAAMG stocks which, after soaring for much of 2020 when they returned 56% and accounted for 7% of the 18% S&P 500 return last year, have gone nowhere in recent months prompting concerns that it's all downhill from here.\nNot surprisingly, FAAMGs were also the topic of the latest weekly note from Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin, who writes that confronted with the prospect of decelerating US economic activity, the bank's clients are suddenly freaking out about a breakdown in the 5Generals,and are \"asking about the potential for a transition in market leadership\"even as \"many investors have expressed the view that economic deceleration should support the outperformance of the largest “Big Tech” stocks in the market\",a topic which Goldman analyzed recently and which view the bank supports.\nDespite its ringing endorsement of FAAMGs, Kostin admits that one common concern with this thesis relates to the high current market concentration compared with history, to wit:he five largest stocks in the S&P 500 represent 21% of index capitalization, significantly more than the long-term average of 14%, above the 18% at the peak of the Tech bubble in 2000, and only trailing the 25% level reached during mid-2020.This large index weight of the top stocks is important because it serves as a practical headwind to continued appreciation given SEC restrictions on portfolio concentration that limit how much mutual funds can continue to buy them.\nOf course, there is a fundamental reason why investors have piled into the FAAMGs, first and foremost, the durability of the revenue streams of these firms during 2020 was in stark contrast with the extreme declines exhibited by many other businesses. Last year, sales for the median S&P 500 company collapsed at its nadir by 7% before partially recovering to post flat full-year growth. In contrast, the five FAAMG stocks collectively grew sales by 18% even at the point of maximum contraction for the economy in 2Q.They grew full-year 2020 revenues by 21% vs. 2019.\nQ1 results show that the FAAMG growth persists. The median S&P 500 stock reported year/year sales growth of 9% and 57% of S&P 500 firms beat consensus sales estimates, with a median positive surprise of 4%. At the same time,the five largest stocks reported aggregate 1Q 2021 sales of $321 billion –a remarkable $24 billion or 8% above consensus – for year/year growth of 41%. For 2022, consensus expects the five stocks will post revenue and EPS growth of 14% and 10%, respectively, compared with 6% and 10% for the median S&P 500 stock.\nBut according to Goldman it's not the topline growth that is the most distinguishing aspect of the FAAMG business models, but the amount and share of operating cash flow they devote to driving growth. During 2020, the five FAAMG stocks, spent $128 billion in R&D and another $104 billion on capex, accounting for 22% of the S&P 500 total. FAAMG posted a growth investment ratio of 64% over the last three years vs. 11% for the typical stock. As Goldman puts it,\"they are investing their way to superior growth.\"\nWhile those are the clearest positives propping up the FAAMGs, they are largely priced in; at the same time there is a list of sizable and growing risks, starting with Biden's proposed tax reform which would raise both corporate and capital gains tax rates and represent possible sources of risk for the FAAMG stocks. If the Biden corporate tax plan were fully enacted, FAAMG 2022E earnings would decrease by roughly 9% relative to consensus expectations. FAAMGs generate approximately 55% of income abroad. Using a back-of-the-envelope approach, applying the proposed 28% domestic statutory rate and 21% tax rate on foreign income to each portion of FAAMG’s income, their collective effective tax rate would rise by 7% to 24% (vs. +6 pp to 25% for the median S&P 500 stock) and would decrease consensus 2022 FAAMG earnings by 9% (vs. -8% for the S&P 500).\nSeparately, the FAAMG stocks are also vulnerable to higher capital gains rates. If the capital gains tax rate becomes set to rise in 2022, investors subject to the higher rate may choose to realize some of their substantial capital gains in 2021 at the lower current tax rate.The FAAMG stocks have appreciated by $5 trillion during the last 5 years, accounting for 29% of the S&P 500 market cap increase during that time.Needless to say, if there will be selling, it could be furious.\nIt doesn't end there: valuation multiples also pose a risk to the FAAMG stocks. Investor conversations around FAAMG inevitably turn to their valuations.FAAMG trades at a forward P/E of 29x (90th percentile for the top 5 stocks since 1980), compared with 21x for the remaining 495 S&P 500 stocks.This 34% P/E premium for the five largest stocks ranks in the 76th percentile since 1980.\nThat said, if multiples were to shrink everything would crash, which is why Kostin writes that \"the current low level of interest rates and the fast pace of expected growth support the lofty multiples of the FAAMG stocks.\" While the nominal 10-year Treasury yield has risen this year, at 1.6% it remains extremely low in historical terms, Kostin also makes some other valuation observations:\n\n Low rates support the valuation of high growth, long duration stocks.FAAMG has an earnings yield gap (E/P less 10Y UST) of 191 bp, above the 40-yearaverage of 144 bp, indicating that the stocks are attractively valued adjusting for thelow level of rates.\n Valuation on a growth-adjusted basis also looks more reasonable:FAAMG actually trades at a 14% PEG discount to the median S&P 500 stock (1.7xvs. 1.9x).\n\nWhile all this worked in an ultra low rates environment, rising interest rates represent a potential headwind to FAAMG returns in coming months (incidentally Goldman rates strategists forecast10-year US Treasury yields will rise by 34bps to 1.90% by the end of 2021). Furthermore,all five FAAMG stocks have above-average duration compared with the Russell 1000, meaning they are especially sensitive to moves in long-term interest rates.As yields rose sharply from November through March, FAAMG underperformed the S&P 500 by 7 pp (+21% vs. +14%). A similar period of rising rates in 2H 2021 would likely hamper FAAMG returns.\nPutting all this together, Kostin writes that the greatest fundamental risk to the continued market leadership of the five largest companies \"appears to be the potential intervention of regulators.\" He adds that recent Biden administration appointments \"suggest some risk of a stricter regulatory regime and tighter antitrust enforcement.\" He has a point: with the exception of MSFT, the other four FAAMG stocks face a laundry list of legal battles and investigations over their market power and competitive practices ranging from commercial litigation to DoJ and FTC antitrust lawsuits to Congressional probes.\nThen again, as Kostin concludes, his year-end 2021 S&P 500 index forecasts of 4300 and 4600 at the end of 2022 assume these companies generate sales and earnings in line with consensus expectations, their relative valuations remain stable, and therefore implicitly that antitrust actions have no major impact.\nIn short, Goldman clients can just relax and keep buying the FAAMG dip.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"FB":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"MSFT":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":190529839,"gmtCreate":1620635871221,"gmtModify":1634197519222,"author":{"id":"3574678456864295","authorId":"3574678456864295","name":"荟荟hui","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574678456864295","authorIdStr":"3574678456864295"},"htmlText":"😊😎😎","listText":"😊😎😎","text":"😊😎😎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190529839","repostId":1122258040,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122258040","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620631679,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122258040?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-10 15:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Generals Will Be Back: Goldman Assures Its Clients That FAAMGs Will Make Triumphant Return<blockquote>将军们将会回来：高盛向客户保证FAAMGs将凯旋</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122258040","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Earlier today, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategistMichael Wilson lookedat what was likely the h","content":"Earlier today, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategistMichael Wilson lookedat what was likely the highlight of Q1 earnings season, pointing out that \"the vaunted FAANMG stocks sold off on terrific 1Q earnings results after an outsized run into the event. This was... a reminder that stocks often peak on good news.\"<blockquote>今天早些时候，摩根士丹利首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊(Michael Wilson)研究了第一季度财报季的亮点，他指出，“备受吹捧的FAANMG股票在经历了一次大规模上涨后，因出色的第一季度财报业绩而遭到抛售。这是……提醒人们股市往往会因好消息而见顶。”</blockquote> Not to make a too fine point out of it, suddenly everyone is focusing on the performance of the FAAMG stocks which, after soaring for much of 2020 when they returned 56% and accounted for 7% of the 18% S&amp;P 500 return last year, have gone nowhere in recent months prompting concerns that it's all downhill from here.<blockquote>不要说得太好，突然间，每个人都开始关注FAAMG股票的表现，这些股票在2020年的大部分时间里飙升，回报率为56%，占去年标普500 18%回报率的7%，最近几个月毫无进展，引发了人们对从这里开始一切都在走下坡路的担忧。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, FAAMGs were also the topic of the latest weekly note from Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin, who writes that confronted with the prospect of decelerating US economic activity, the bank's clients are suddenly freaking out about a breakdown in the 5Generals,and are \"asking about the potential for a transition in market leadership\"even as \"many investors have expressed the view that economic deceleration should support the outperformance of the largest “Big Tech” stocks in the market\",a topic which Goldman analyzed recently and which view the bank supports.<blockquote>毫不奇怪，FAAMG也是高盛首席股票策略师David Kostin最新每周报告的主题，他写道，面对美国经济活动减速的前景，该银行的客户突然对5月份的崩溃感到恐慌将军们，并且是“询问市场领导地位转变的潜力”甚至作为“许多投资者表示，经济减速应该会支持市场上最大的“大型科技”股票的跑赢大盘，高盛最近分析了这一主题，并支持该银行的观点。</blockquote> Despite its ringing endorsement of FAAMGs, Kostin admits that one common concern with this thesis relates to the high current market concentration compared with history, to wit:he five largest stocks in the S&amp;P 500 represent 21% of index capitalization, significantly more than the long-term average of 14%, above the 18% at the peak of the Tech bubble in 2000, and only trailing the 25% level reached during mid-2020.This large index weight of the top stocks is important because it serves as a practical headwind to continued appreciation given SEC restrictions on portfolio concentration that limit how much mutual funds can continue to buy them.<blockquote>尽管Kostin强烈支持FAAMGs，但他承认，与历史相比，这篇论文的一个共同担忧与当前市场集中度较高有关，即：标普500最大的五只股票占指数市值的21%，明显高于14%的长期平均水平，高于2000年科技泡沫顶峰时的18%，仅落后于2020年中期达到的25%水平。顶级股票的较大指数权重很重要，因为鉴于美国证券交易委员会对投资组合集中度的限制限制了共同基金可以继续购买这些股票的数量，这实际上是持续升值的阻力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d48151f4a9d0133be4773c6ff3e878b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"338\">Of course, there is a fundamental reason why investors have piled into the FAAMGs, first and foremost, the durability of the revenue streams of these firms during 2020 was in stark contrast with the extreme declines exhibited by many other businesses. Last year, sales for the median S&amp;P 500 company collapsed at its nadir by 7% before partially recovering to post flat full-year growth. In contrast, the five FAAMG stocks collectively grew sales by 18% even at the point of maximum contraction for the economy in 2Q.They grew full-year 2020 revenues by 21% vs. 2019.<blockquote>当然，投资者涌入FAAMG有一个根本原因，首先也是最重要的，这些公司在2020年收入流的持久性与许多其他企业表现出的极端下滑形成鲜明对比。去年，标普500中位数公司的销售额跌至最低点7%，随后部分复苏，全年增长持平。相比之下，即使在第二季度经济最大收缩的时候，五只FAAMG股票的销售额也合计增长了18%。他们2020年全年收入较2019年增长21%.</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8da01105192f6119b179033fa5670b91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"330\">Q1 results show that the FAAMG growth persists. The median S&amp;P 500 stock reported year/year sales growth of 9% and 57% of S&amp;P 500 firms beat consensus sales estimates, with a median positive surprise of 4%. At the same time,the five largest stocks reported aggregate 1Q 2021 sales of $321 billion –a remarkable $24 billion or 8% above consensus – for year/year growth of 41%. For 2022, consensus expects the five stocks will post revenue and EPS growth of 14% and 10%, respectively, compared with 6% and 10% for the median S&amp;P 500 stock.<blockquote>第一季度结果显示，FAAMG持续增长。标普500股票报告的年销售额增长中位数为9%，57%的标普500公司超出了普遍的销售预期，积极的惊喜中位数为4%。同时，五只最大的股票报告2021年第一季度总销售额为3,210亿美元，比市场预期高出240亿美元或8%，同比增长41%2022年，市场普遍预计这五只股票的收入和每股收益将分别增长14%和10%，而标普500股票的中位数分别为6%和10%。</blockquote> But according to Goldman it's not the topline growth that is the most distinguishing aspect of the FAAMG business models, but the amount and share of operating cash flow they devote to driving growth. During 2020, the five FAAMG stocks, spent $128 billion in R&amp;D and another $104 billion on capex, accounting for 22% of the S&amp;P 500 total. FAAMG posted a growth investment ratio of 64% over the last three years vs. 11% for the typical stock. As Goldman puts it,\"they are investing their way to superior growth.\"<blockquote>但高盛表示，FAAMG商业模式最显着的方面并不是营收增长，而是它们用于推动增长的运营现金流的数量和份额。2020年，FAAMG的五只股票在研发上花费了1280亿美元，在资本支出上花费了1040亿美元，占标普500总额的22%。FAAMG公布过去三年的增长投资比率为64%，而典型股票的增长投资比率为11%。正如高盛所说，“他们正在通过投资实现卓越的增长。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39ecf24db61c49e18cce9872ed4798fb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"355\">While those are the clearest positives propping up the FAAMGs, they are largely priced in; at the same time there is a list of sizable and growing risks, starting with Biden's proposed tax reform which would raise both corporate and capital gains tax rates and represent possible sources of risk for the FAAMG stocks. If the Biden corporate tax plan were fully enacted, FAAMG 2022E earnings would decrease by roughly 9% relative to consensus expectations. FAAMGs generate approximately 55% of income abroad. Using a back-of-the-envelope approach, applying the proposed 28% domestic statutory rate and 21% tax rate on foreign income to each portion of FAAMG’s income, their collective effective tax rate would rise by 7% to 24% (vs. +6 pp to 25% for the median S&amp;P 500 stock) and would decrease consensus 2022 FAAMG earnings by 9% (vs. -8% for the S&amp;P 500).<blockquote>虽然这些是支撑FAAMG的最明显的积极因素，但它们在很大程度上已被定价；与此同时，还有一系列相当大且不断增长的风险，首先是拜登提出的税收改革，该改革将提高企业和资本利得税率，并代表FAAMG股票的可能风险来源。如果拜登企业税计划全面实施，FAAMG 2022E盈利将比普遍预期下降约9%。FAAMG大约55%的收入来自国外。采用粗略的方法，将拟议的28%国内法定税率和21%国外收入税率应用于FAAMG收入的每一部分，其集体有效税率将上升7%至24%（相比之下，标普500股票中位数为+6个百分点至25%），并将使2022年FAAMG普遍盈利减少9%（而标普500为-8%）。</blockquote> Separately, the FAAMG stocks are also vulnerable to higher capital gains rates. If the capital gains tax rate becomes set to rise in 2022, investors subject to the higher rate may choose to realize some of their substantial capital gains in 2021 at the lower current tax rate.The FAAMG stocks have appreciated by $5 trillion during the last 5 years, accounting for 29% of the S&amp;P 500 market cap increase during that time.Needless to say, if there will be selling, it could be furious.<blockquote>另外，FAAMG股票也容易受到较高资本收益率的影响。如果资本利得税率将在2022年上升，受较高税率约束的投资者可能会选择在2021年以较低的当前税率实现部分巨额资本利得。FAAMG股票在过去5年中升值了5万亿美元，占同期标普500市值增幅的29%。不用说，如果有抛售，它可能会非常愤怒。</blockquote> It doesn't end there: valuation multiples also pose a risk to the FAAMG stocks. Investor conversations around FAAMG inevitably turn to their valuations.FAAMG trades at a forward P/E of 29x (90th percentile for the top 5 stocks since 1980), compared with 21x for the remaining 495 S&amp;P 500 stocks.This 34% P/E premium for the five largest stocks ranks in the 76th percentile since 1980.<blockquote>事情还不止于此：估值倍数也对FAAMG股票构成风险。投资者围绕FAAMG的讨论不可避免地转向他们的估值。FAAMG的预期市盈率为29倍（自1980年以来排名前5的股票的第90百分位），而其余495只标普500股票的预期市盈率为21倍。五只最大股票34%的市盈率溢价自1980年以来排名第76百分位。</blockquote> That said, if multiples were to shrink everything would crash, which is why Kostin writes that \"the current low level of interest rates and the fast pace of expected growth support the lofty multiples of the FAAMG stocks.\" While the nominal 10-year Treasury yield has risen this year, at 1.6% it remains extremely low in historical terms, Kostin also makes some other valuation observations:<blockquote>也就是说，如果市盈率缩水，一切都会崩溃，这就是为什么科斯汀写道，“当前的低利率水平和预期增长的快速步伐支撑了FAAMG股票的高市盈率。”尽管名义10年期国债收益率今年有所上升，但从历史角度来看仍处于极低水平，但科斯汀还提出了其他一些估值观察：</blockquote> Low rates support the valuation of high growth, long duration stocks.FAAMG has an earnings yield gap (E/P less 10Y UST) of 191 bp, above the 40-yearaverage of 144 bp, indicating that the stocks are attractively valued adjusting for thelow level of rates. Valuation on a growth-adjusted basis also looks more reasonable:FAAMG actually trades at a 14% PEG discount to the median S&amp;P 500 stock (1.7xvs. 1.9x). <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c59e188a9f4da2e363d8809ffd3a779\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"355\">While all this worked in an ultra low rates environment, rising interest rates represent a potential headwind to FAAMG returns in coming months (incidentally Goldman rates strategists forecast10-year US Treasury yields will rise by 34bps to 1.90% by the end of 2021). Furthermore,all five FAAMG stocks have above-average duration compared with the Russell 1000, meaning they are especially sensitive to moves in long-term interest rates.As yields rose sharply from November through March, FAAMG underperformed the S&amp;P 500 by 7 pp (+21% vs. +14%). A similar period of rising rates in 2H 2021 would likely hamper FAAMG returns.<blockquote>低利率支持高增长、长期股票的估值。FAAMG的盈利收益率差距（E/P减去10年期UST）为191个基点，高于144个基点的40年平均水平，表明调整后这些股票的估值具有吸引力利率水平。经增长调整后的估值看起来也更合理：FAAMG的交易价格实际上比标普500股票中位数折价14%（1.7 XVS。1.9 x)。虽然所有这些都在超低利率环境下发挥作用，但利率上升对未来几个月FAAMG回报构成了潜在的阻力（顺便说一句，高盛利率策略师预测，到2021年底，10年期美国国债收益率将上升34个基点至1.90%）。此外，与罗素1000指数相比，所有五只FAAMG股票的久期均高于平均水平，这意味着它们对长期利率的变动特别敏感。随着11月至3月收益率大幅上升，FAAMG的表现落后标普500 7个百分点（+21%vs.+14%）。2021年下半年类似的利率上升时期可能会阻碍FAAMG的回报。</blockquote> Putting all this together, Kostin writes that the greatest fundamental risk to the continued market leadership of the five largest companies \"appears to be the potential intervention of regulators.\" He adds that recent Biden administration appointments \"suggest some risk of a stricter regulatory regime and tighter antitrust enforcement.\" He has a point: with the exception of MSFT, the other four FAAMG stocks face a laundry list of legal battles and investigations over their market power and competitive practices ranging from commercial litigation to DoJ and FTC antitrust lawsuits to Congressional probes.<blockquote>科斯汀写道，将所有这些放在一起，五大公司继续保持市场领先地位的最大根本风险“似乎是监管机构的潜在干预”。他补充说，拜登政府最近的任命“表明了更严格的监管制度和更严格的反垄断执法的一些风险”。他说得有道理：除MSFT外，其他四只FAAMG股票因其市场力量和竞争行为而面临一系列法律斗争和调查，从商业诉讼到DoJ和FTC反垄断诉讼再到国会调查。</blockquote> Then again, as Kostin concludes, his year-end 2021 S&amp;P 500 index forecasts of 4300 and 4600 at the end of 2022 assume these companies generate sales and earnings in line with consensus expectations, their relative valuations remain stable, and therefore implicitly that antitrust actions have no major impact.<blockquote>话又说回来，正如Kostin总结的那样，他对2021年底标普500指数的预测为4300和2022年底的4600假设这些公司的销售额和盈利符合普遍预期，它们的相对估值保持稳定，因此隐含着反垄断行动没有重大影响。</blockquote> In short, Goldman clients can just relax and keep buying the FAAMG dip.<blockquote>简而言之，高盛客户可以放松并继续逢低买入FAAMG。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Generals Will Be Back: Goldman Assures Its Clients That FAAMGs Will Make Triumphant Return<blockquote>将军们将会回来：高盛向客户保证FAAMGs将凯旋</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Generals Will Be Back: Goldman Assures Its Clients That FAAMGs Will Make Triumphant Return<blockquote>将军们将会回来：高盛向客户保证FAAMGs将凯旋</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-05-10 15:27\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nEarlier today, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategistMichael Wilson lookedat what was likely the highlight of Q1 earnings season, pointing out that \"the vaunted FAANMG stocks sold off on terrific 1Q earnings results after an outsized run into the event. This was... a reminder that stocks often peak on good news.\"<blockquote>今天早些时候，摩根士丹利首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊(Michael Wilson)研究了第一季度财报季的亮点，他指出，“备受吹捧的FAANMG股票在经历了一次大规模上涨后，因出色的第一季度财报业绩而遭到抛售。这是……提醒人们股市往往会因好消息而见顶。”</blockquote> Not to make a too fine point out of it, suddenly everyone is focusing on the performance of the FAAMG stocks which, after soaring for much of 2020 when they returned 56% and accounted for 7% of the 18% S&amp;P 500 return last year, have gone nowhere in recent months prompting concerns that it's all downhill from here.<blockquote>不要说得太好，突然间，每个人都开始关注FAAMG股票的表现，这些股票在2020年的大部分时间里飙升，回报率为56%，占去年标普500 18%回报率的7%，最近几个月毫无进展，引发了人们对从这里开始一切都在走下坡路的担忧。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, FAAMGs were also the topic of the latest weekly note from Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin, who writes that confronted with the prospect of decelerating US economic activity, the bank's clients are suddenly freaking out about a breakdown in the 5Generals,and are \"asking about the potential for a transition in market leadership\"even as \"many investors have expressed the view that economic deceleration should support the outperformance of the largest “Big Tech” stocks in the market\",a topic which Goldman analyzed recently and which view the bank supports.<blockquote>毫不奇怪，FAAMG也是高盛首席股票策略师David Kostin最新每周报告的主题，他写道，面对美国经济活动减速的前景，该银行的客户突然对5月份的崩溃感到恐慌将军们，并且是“询问市场领导地位转变的潜力”甚至作为“许多投资者表示，经济减速应该会支持市场上最大的“大型科技”股票的跑赢大盘，高盛最近分析了这一主题，并支持该银行的观点。</blockquote> Despite its ringing endorsement of FAAMGs, Kostin admits that one common concern with this thesis relates to the high current market concentration compared with history, to wit:he five largest stocks in the S&amp;P 500 represent 21% of index capitalization, significantly more than the long-term average of 14%, above the 18% at the peak of the Tech bubble in 2000, and only trailing the 25% level reached during mid-2020.This large index weight of the top stocks is important because it serves as a practical headwind to continued appreciation given SEC restrictions on portfolio concentration that limit how much mutual funds can continue to buy them.<blockquote>尽管Kostin强烈支持FAAMGs，但他承认，与历史相比，这篇论文的一个共同担忧与当前市场集中度较高有关，即：标普500最大的五只股票占指数市值的21%，明显高于14%的长期平均水平，高于2000年科技泡沫顶峰时的18%，仅落后于2020年中期达到的25%水平。顶级股票的较大指数权重很重要，因为鉴于美国证券交易委员会对投资组合集中度的限制限制了共同基金可以继续购买这些股票的数量，这实际上是持续升值的阻力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d48151f4a9d0133be4773c6ff3e878b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"338\">Of course, there is a fundamental reason why investors have piled into the FAAMGs, first and foremost, the durability of the revenue streams of these firms during 2020 was in stark contrast with the extreme declines exhibited by many other businesses. Last year, sales for the median S&amp;P 500 company collapsed at its nadir by 7% before partially recovering to post flat full-year growth. In contrast, the five FAAMG stocks collectively grew sales by 18% even at the point of maximum contraction for the economy in 2Q.They grew full-year 2020 revenues by 21% vs. 2019.<blockquote>当然，投资者涌入FAAMG有一个根本原因，首先也是最重要的，这些公司在2020年收入流的持久性与许多其他企业表现出的极端下滑形成鲜明对比。去年，标普500中位数公司的销售额跌至最低点7%，随后部分复苏，全年增长持平。相比之下，即使在第二季度经济最大收缩的时候，五只FAAMG股票的销售额也合计增长了18%。他们2020年全年收入较2019年增长21%.</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8da01105192f6119b179033fa5670b91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"330\">Q1 results show that the FAAMG growth persists. The median S&amp;P 500 stock reported year/year sales growth of 9% and 57% of S&amp;P 500 firms beat consensus sales estimates, with a median positive surprise of 4%. At the same time,the five largest stocks reported aggregate 1Q 2021 sales of $321 billion –a remarkable $24 billion or 8% above consensus – for year/year growth of 41%. For 2022, consensus expects the five stocks will post revenue and EPS growth of 14% and 10%, respectively, compared with 6% and 10% for the median S&amp;P 500 stock.<blockquote>第一季度结果显示，FAAMG持续增长。标普500股票报告的年销售额增长中位数为9%，57%的标普500公司超出了普遍的销售预期，积极的惊喜中位数为4%。同时，五只最大的股票报告2021年第一季度总销售额为3,210亿美元，比市场预期高出240亿美元或8%，同比增长41%2022年，市场普遍预计这五只股票的收入和每股收益将分别增长14%和10%，而标普500股票的中位数分别为6%和10%。</blockquote> But according to Goldman it's not the topline growth that is the most distinguishing aspect of the FAAMG business models, but the amount and share of operating cash flow they devote to driving growth. During 2020, the five FAAMG stocks, spent $128 billion in R&amp;D and another $104 billion on capex, accounting for 22% of the S&amp;P 500 total. FAAMG posted a growth investment ratio of 64% over the last three years vs. 11% for the typical stock. As Goldman puts it,\"they are investing their way to superior growth.\"<blockquote>但高盛表示，FAAMG商业模式最显着的方面并不是营收增长，而是它们用于推动增长的运营现金流的数量和份额。2020年，FAAMG的五只股票在研发上花费了1280亿美元，在资本支出上花费了1040亿美元，占标普500总额的22%。FAAMG公布过去三年的增长投资比率为64%，而典型股票的增长投资比率为11%。正如高盛所说，“他们正在通过投资实现卓越的增长。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39ecf24db61c49e18cce9872ed4798fb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"355\">While those are the clearest positives propping up the FAAMGs, they are largely priced in; at the same time there is a list of sizable and growing risks, starting with Biden's proposed tax reform which would raise both corporate and capital gains tax rates and represent possible sources of risk for the FAAMG stocks. If the Biden corporate tax plan were fully enacted, FAAMG 2022E earnings would decrease by roughly 9% relative to consensus expectations. FAAMGs generate approximately 55% of income abroad. Using a back-of-the-envelope approach, applying the proposed 28% domestic statutory rate and 21% tax rate on foreign income to each portion of FAAMG’s income, their collective effective tax rate would rise by 7% to 24% (vs. +6 pp to 25% for the median S&amp;P 500 stock) and would decrease consensus 2022 FAAMG earnings by 9% (vs. -8% for the S&amp;P 500).<blockquote>虽然这些是支撑FAAMG的最明显的积极因素，但它们在很大程度上已被定价；与此同时，还有一系列相当大且不断增长的风险，首先是拜登提出的税收改革，该改革将提高企业和资本利得税率，并代表FAAMG股票的可能风险来源。如果拜登企业税计划全面实施，FAAMG 2022E盈利将比普遍预期下降约9%。FAAMG大约55%的收入来自国外。采用粗略的方法，将拟议的28%国内法定税率和21%国外收入税率应用于FAAMG收入的每一部分，其集体有效税率将上升7%至24%（相比之下，标普500股票中位数为+6个百分点至25%），并将使2022年FAAMG普遍盈利减少9%（而标普500为-8%）。</blockquote> Separately, the FAAMG stocks are also vulnerable to higher capital gains rates. If the capital gains tax rate becomes set to rise in 2022, investors subject to the higher rate may choose to realize some of their substantial capital gains in 2021 at the lower current tax rate.The FAAMG stocks have appreciated by $5 trillion during the last 5 years, accounting for 29% of the S&amp;P 500 market cap increase during that time.Needless to say, if there will be selling, it could be furious.<blockquote>另外，FAAMG股票也容易受到较高资本收益率的影响。如果资本利得税率将在2022年上升，受较高税率约束的投资者可能会选择在2021年以较低的当前税率实现部分巨额资本利得。FAAMG股票在过去5年中升值了5万亿美元，占同期标普500市值增幅的29%。不用说，如果有抛售，它可能会非常愤怒。</blockquote> It doesn't end there: valuation multiples also pose a risk to the FAAMG stocks. Investor conversations around FAAMG inevitably turn to their valuations.FAAMG trades at a forward P/E of 29x (90th percentile for the top 5 stocks since 1980), compared with 21x for the remaining 495 S&amp;P 500 stocks.This 34% P/E premium for the five largest stocks ranks in the 76th percentile since 1980.<blockquote>事情还不止于此：估值倍数也对FAAMG股票构成风险。投资者围绕FAAMG的讨论不可避免地转向他们的估值。FAAMG的预期市盈率为29倍（自1980年以来排名前5的股票的第90百分位），而其余495只标普500股票的预期市盈率为21倍。五只最大股票34%的市盈率溢价自1980年以来排名第76百分位。</blockquote> That said, if multiples were to shrink everything would crash, which is why Kostin writes that \"the current low level of interest rates and the fast pace of expected growth support the lofty multiples of the FAAMG stocks.\" While the nominal 10-year Treasury yield has risen this year, at 1.6% it remains extremely low in historical terms, Kostin also makes some other valuation observations:<blockquote>也就是说，如果市盈率缩水，一切都会崩溃，这就是为什么科斯汀写道，“当前的低利率水平和预期增长的快速步伐支撑了FAAMG股票的高市盈率。”尽管名义10年期国债收益率今年有所上升，但从历史角度来看仍处于极低水平，但科斯汀还提出了其他一些估值观察：</blockquote> Low rates support the valuation of high growth, long duration stocks.FAAMG has an earnings yield gap (E/P less 10Y UST) of 191 bp, above the 40-yearaverage of 144 bp, indicating that the stocks are attractively valued adjusting for thelow level of rates. Valuation on a growth-adjusted basis also looks more reasonable:FAAMG actually trades at a 14% PEG discount to the median S&amp;P 500 stock (1.7xvs. 1.9x). <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c59e188a9f4da2e363d8809ffd3a779\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"355\">While all this worked in an ultra low rates environment, rising interest rates represent a potential headwind to FAAMG returns in coming months (incidentally Goldman rates strategists forecast10-year US Treasury yields will rise by 34bps to 1.90% by the end of 2021). Furthermore,all five FAAMG stocks have above-average duration compared with the Russell 1000, meaning they are especially sensitive to moves in long-term interest rates.As yields rose sharply from November through March, FAAMG underperformed the S&amp;P 500 by 7 pp (+21% vs. +14%). A similar period of rising rates in 2H 2021 would likely hamper FAAMG returns.<blockquote>低利率支持高增长、长期股票的估值。FAAMG的盈利收益率差距（E/P减去10年期UST）为191个基点，高于144个基点的40年平均水平，表明调整后这些股票的估值具有吸引力利率水平。经增长调整后的估值看起来也更合理：FAAMG的交易价格实际上比标普500股票中位数折价14%（1.7 XVS。1.9 x)。虽然所有这些都在超低利率环境下发挥作用，但利率上升对未来几个月FAAMG回报构成了潜在的阻力（顺便说一句，高盛利率策略师预测，到2021年底，10年期美国国债收益率将上升34个基点至1.90%）。此外，与罗素1000指数相比，所有五只FAAMG股票的久期均高于平均水平，这意味着它们对长期利率的变动特别敏感。随着11月至3月收益率大幅上升，FAAMG的表现落后标普500 7个百分点（+21%vs.+14%）。2021年下半年类似的利率上升时期可能会阻碍FAAMG的回报。</blockquote> Putting all this together, Kostin writes that the greatest fundamental risk to the continued market leadership of the five largest companies \"appears to be the potential intervention of regulators.\" He adds that recent Biden administration appointments \"suggest some risk of a stricter regulatory regime and tighter antitrust enforcement.\" He has a point: with the exception of MSFT, the other four FAAMG stocks face a laundry list of legal battles and investigations over their market power and competitive practices ranging from commercial litigation to DoJ and FTC antitrust lawsuits to Congressional probes.<blockquote>科斯汀写道，将所有这些放在一起，五大公司继续保持市场领先地位的最大根本风险“似乎是监管机构的潜在干预”。他补充说，拜登政府最近的任命“表明了更严格的监管制度和更严格的反垄断执法的一些风险”。他说得有道理：除MSFT外，其他四只FAAMG股票因其市场力量和竞争行为而面临一系列法律斗争和调查，从商业诉讼到DoJ和FTC反垄断诉讼再到国会调查。</blockquote> Then again, as Kostin concludes, his year-end 2021 S&amp;P 500 index forecasts of 4300 and 4600 at the end of 2022 assume these companies generate sales and earnings in line with consensus expectations, their relative valuations remain stable, and therefore implicitly that antitrust actions have no major impact.<blockquote>话又说回来，正如Kostin总结的那样，他对2021年底标普500指数的预测为4300和2022年底的4600假设这些公司的销售额和盈利符合普遍预期，它们的相对估值保持稳定，因此隐含着反垄断行动没有重大影响。</blockquote> In short, Goldman clients can just relax and keep buying the FAAMG dip.<blockquote>简而言之，高盛客户可以放松并继续逢低买入FAAMG。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/generals-will-be-back-goldman-assures-its-clients-faamgs-will-make-triumphant-return\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FB":"ProShares S&P 500 Dynamic Buffer ETF","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","GOOGL":"谷歌A","MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/generals-will-be-back-goldman-assures-its-clients-faamgs-will-make-triumphant-return","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122258040","content_text":"Earlier today, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategistMichael Wilson lookedat what was likely the highlight of Q1 earnings season, pointing out that \"the vaunted FAANMG stocks sold off on terrific 1Q earnings results after an outsized run into the event. This was... a reminder that stocks often peak on good news.\"\nNot to make a too fine point out of it, suddenly everyone is focusing on the performance of the FAAMG stocks which, after soaring for much of 2020 when they returned 56% and accounted for 7% of the 18% S&P 500 return last year, have gone nowhere in recent months prompting concerns that it's all downhill from here.\nNot surprisingly, FAAMGs were also the topic of the latest weekly note from Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin, who writes that confronted with the prospect of decelerating US economic activity, the bank's clients are suddenly freaking out about a breakdown in the 5Generals,and are \"asking about the potential for a transition in market leadership\"even as \"many investors have expressed the view that economic deceleration should support the outperformance of the largest “Big Tech” stocks in the market\",a topic which Goldman analyzed recently and which view the bank supports.\nDespite its ringing endorsement of FAAMGs, Kostin admits that one common concern with this thesis relates to the high current market concentration compared with history, to wit:he five largest stocks in the S&P 500 represent 21% of index capitalization, significantly more than the long-term average of 14%, above the 18% at the peak of the Tech bubble in 2000, and only trailing the 25% level reached during mid-2020.This large index weight of the top stocks is important because it serves as a practical headwind to continued appreciation given SEC restrictions on portfolio concentration that limit how much mutual funds can continue to buy them.\nOf course, there is a fundamental reason why investors have piled into the FAAMGs, first and foremost, the durability of the revenue streams of these firms during 2020 was in stark contrast with the extreme declines exhibited by many other businesses. Last year, sales for the median S&P 500 company collapsed at its nadir by 7% before partially recovering to post flat full-year growth. In contrast, the five FAAMG stocks collectively grew sales by 18% even at the point of maximum contraction for the economy in 2Q.They grew full-year 2020 revenues by 21% vs. 2019.\nQ1 results show that the FAAMG growth persists. The median S&P 500 stock reported year/year sales growth of 9% and 57% of S&P 500 firms beat consensus sales estimates, with a median positive surprise of 4%. At the same time,the five largest stocks reported aggregate 1Q 2021 sales of $321 billion –a remarkable $24 billion or 8% above consensus – for year/year growth of 41%. For 2022, consensus expects the five stocks will post revenue and EPS growth of 14% and 10%, respectively, compared with 6% and 10% for the median S&P 500 stock.\nBut according to Goldman it's not the topline growth that is the most distinguishing aspect of the FAAMG business models, but the amount and share of operating cash flow they devote to driving growth. During 2020, the five FAAMG stocks, spent $128 billion in R&D and another $104 billion on capex, accounting for 22% of the S&P 500 total. FAAMG posted a growth investment ratio of 64% over the last three years vs. 11% for the typical stock. As Goldman puts it,\"they are investing their way to superior growth.\"\nWhile those are the clearest positives propping up the FAAMGs, they are largely priced in; at the same time there is a list of sizable and growing risks, starting with Biden's proposed tax reform which would raise both corporate and capital gains tax rates and represent possible sources of risk for the FAAMG stocks. If the Biden corporate tax plan were fully enacted, FAAMG 2022E earnings would decrease by roughly 9% relative to consensus expectations. FAAMGs generate approximately 55% of income abroad. Using a back-of-the-envelope approach, applying the proposed 28% domestic statutory rate and 21% tax rate on foreign income to each portion of FAAMG’s income, their collective effective tax rate would rise by 7% to 24% (vs. +6 pp to 25% for the median S&P 500 stock) and would decrease consensus 2022 FAAMG earnings by 9% (vs. -8% for the S&P 500).\nSeparately, the FAAMG stocks are also vulnerable to higher capital gains rates. If the capital gains tax rate becomes set to rise in 2022, investors subject to the higher rate may choose to realize some of their substantial capital gains in 2021 at the lower current tax rate.The FAAMG stocks have appreciated by $5 trillion during the last 5 years, accounting for 29% of the S&P 500 market cap increase during that time.Needless to say, if there will be selling, it could be furious.\nIt doesn't end there: valuation multiples also pose a risk to the FAAMG stocks. Investor conversations around FAAMG inevitably turn to their valuations.FAAMG trades at a forward P/E of 29x (90th percentile for the top 5 stocks since 1980), compared with 21x for the remaining 495 S&P 500 stocks.This 34% P/E premium for the five largest stocks ranks in the 76th percentile since 1980.\nThat said, if multiples were to shrink everything would crash, which is why Kostin writes that \"the current low level of interest rates and the fast pace of expected growth support the lofty multiples of the FAAMG stocks.\" While the nominal 10-year Treasury yield has risen this year, at 1.6% it remains extremely low in historical terms, Kostin also makes some other valuation observations:\n\n Low rates support the valuation of high growth, long duration stocks.FAAMG has an earnings yield gap (E/P less 10Y UST) of 191 bp, above the 40-yearaverage of 144 bp, indicating that the stocks are attractively valued adjusting for thelow level of rates.\n Valuation on a growth-adjusted basis also looks more reasonable:FAAMG actually trades at a 14% PEG discount to the median S&P 500 stock (1.7xvs. 1.9x).\n\nWhile all this worked in an ultra low rates environment, rising interest rates represent a potential headwind to FAAMG returns in coming months (incidentally Goldman rates strategists forecast10-year US Treasury yields will rise by 34bps to 1.90% by the end of 2021). Furthermore,all five FAAMG stocks have above-average duration compared with the Russell 1000, meaning they are especially sensitive to moves in long-term interest rates.As yields rose sharply from November through March, FAAMG underperformed the S&P 500 by 7 pp (+21% vs. +14%). A similar period of rising rates in 2H 2021 would likely hamper FAAMG returns.\nPutting all this together, Kostin writes that the greatest fundamental risk to the continued market leadership of the five largest companies \"appears to be the potential intervention of regulators.\" He adds that recent Biden administration appointments \"suggest some risk of a stricter regulatory regime and tighter antitrust enforcement.\" He has a point: with the exception of MSFT, the other four FAAMG stocks face a laundry list of legal battles and investigations over their market power and competitive practices ranging from commercial litigation to DoJ and FTC antitrust lawsuits to Congressional probes.\nThen again, as Kostin concludes, his year-end 2021 S&P 500 index forecasts of 4300 and 4600 at the end of 2022 assume these companies generate sales and earnings in line with consensus expectations, their relative valuations remain stable, and therefore implicitly that antitrust actions have no major impact.\nIn short, Goldman clients can just relax and keep buying the FAAMG dip.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"FB":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"MSFT":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":190516126,"gmtCreate":1620633289465,"gmtModify":1634197536240,"author":{"id":"3558581504257803","authorId":"3558581504257803","name":"Kelvinyoon26","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c18f026fcaa77f437cb20f39e1b4ef","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3558581504257803","authorIdStr":"3558581504257803"},"htmlText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190516126","repostId":1122258040,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122258040","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620631679,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122258040?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-10 15:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Generals Will Be Back: Goldman Assures Its Clients That FAAMGs Will Make Triumphant Return<blockquote>将军们将会回来：高盛向客户保证FAAMGs将凯旋</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122258040","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Earlier today, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategistMichael Wilson lookedat what was likely the h","content":"Earlier today, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategistMichael Wilson lookedat what was likely the highlight of Q1 earnings season, pointing out that \"the vaunted FAANMG stocks sold off on terrific 1Q earnings results after an outsized run into the event. This was... a reminder that stocks often peak on good news.\"<blockquote>今天早些时候，摩根士丹利首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊(Michael Wilson)研究了第一季度财报季的亮点，他指出，“备受吹捧的FAANMG股票在经历了一次大规模上涨后，因出色的第一季度财报业绩而遭到抛售。这是……提醒人们股市往往会因好消息而见顶。”</blockquote> Not to make a too fine point out of it, suddenly everyone is focusing on the performance of the FAAMG stocks which, after soaring for much of 2020 when they returned 56% and accounted for 7% of the 18% S&amp;P 500 return last year, have gone nowhere in recent months prompting concerns that it's all downhill from here.<blockquote>不要说得太好，突然间，每个人都开始关注FAAMG股票的表现，这些股票在2020年的大部分时间里飙升，回报率为56%，占去年标普500 18%回报率的7%，最近几个月毫无进展，引发了人们对从这里开始一切都在走下坡路的担忧。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, FAAMGs were also the topic of the latest weekly note from Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin, who writes that confronted with the prospect of decelerating US economic activity, the bank's clients are suddenly freaking out about a breakdown in the 5Generals,and are \"asking about the potential for a transition in market leadership\"even as \"many investors have expressed the view that economic deceleration should support the outperformance of the largest “Big Tech” stocks in the market\",a topic which Goldman analyzed recently and which view the bank supports.<blockquote>毫不奇怪，FAAMG也是高盛首席股票策略师David Kostin最新每周报告的主题，他写道，面对美国经济活动减速的前景，该银行的客户突然对5月份的崩溃感到恐慌将军们，并且是“询问市场领导地位转变的潜力”甚至作为“许多投资者表示，经济减速应该会支持市场上最大的“大型科技”股票的跑赢大盘，高盛最近分析了这一主题，并支持该银行的观点。</blockquote> Despite its ringing endorsement of FAAMGs, Kostin admits that one common concern with this thesis relates to the high current market concentration compared with history, to wit:he five largest stocks in the S&amp;P 500 represent 21% of index capitalization, significantly more than the long-term average of 14%, above the 18% at the peak of the Tech bubble in 2000, and only trailing the 25% level reached during mid-2020.This large index weight of the top stocks is important because it serves as a practical headwind to continued appreciation given SEC restrictions on portfolio concentration that limit how much mutual funds can continue to buy them.<blockquote>尽管Kostin强烈支持FAAMGs，但他承认，与历史相比，这篇论文的一个共同担忧与当前市场集中度较高有关，即：标普500最大的五只股票占指数市值的21%，明显高于14%的长期平均水平，高于2000年科技泡沫顶峰时的18%，仅落后于2020年中期达到的25%水平。顶级股票的较大指数权重很重要，因为鉴于美国证券交易委员会对投资组合集中度的限制限制了共同基金可以继续购买这些股票的数量，这实际上是持续升值的阻力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d48151f4a9d0133be4773c6ff3e878b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"338\">Of course, there is a fundamental reason why investors have piled into the FAAMGs, first and foremost, the durability of the revenue streams of these firms during 2020 was in stark contrast with the extreme declines exhibited by many other businesses. Last year, sales for the median S&amp;P 500 company collapsed at its nadir by 7% before partially recovering to post flat full-year growth. In contrast, the five FAAMG stocks collectively grew sales by 18% even at the point of maximum contraction for the economy in 2Q.They grew full-year 2020 revenues by 21% vs. 2019.<blockquote>当然，投资者涌入FAAMG有一个根本原因，首先也是最重要的，这些公司在2020年收入流的持久性与许多其他企业表现出的极端下滑形成鲜明对比。去年，标普500中位数公司的销售额跌至最低点7%，随后部分复苏，全年增长持平。相比之下，即使在第二季度经济最大收缩的时候，五只FAAMG股票的销售额也合计增长了18%。他们2020年全年收入较2019年增长21%.</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8da01105192f6119b179033fa5670b91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"330\">Q1 results show that the FAAMG growth persists. The median S&amp;P 500 stock reported year/year sales growth of 9% and 57% of S&amp;P 500 firms beat consensus sales estimates, with a median positive surprise of 4%. At the same time,the five largest stocks reported aggregate 1Q 2021 sales of $321 billion –a remarkable $24 billion or 8% above consensus – for year/year growth of 41%. For 2022, consensus expects the five stocks will post revenue and EPS growth of 14% and 10%, respectively, compared with 6% and 10% for the median S&amp;P 500 stock.<blockquote>第一季度结果显示，FAAMG持续增长。标普500股票报告的年销售额增长中位数为9%，57%的标普500公司超出了普遍的销售预期，积极的惊喜中位数为4%。同时，五只最大的股票报告2021年第一季度总销售额为3,210亿美元，比市场预期高出240亿美元或8%，同比增长41%2022年，市场普遍预计这五只股票的收入和每股收益将分别增长14%和10%，而标普500股票的中位数分别为6%和10%。</blockquote> But according to Goldman it's not the topline growth that is the most distinguishing aspect of the FAAMG business models, but the amount and share of operating cash flow they devote to driving growth. During 2020, the five FAAMG stocks, spent $128 billion in R&amp;D and another $104 billion on capex, accounting for 22% of the S&amp;P 500 total. FAAMG posted a growth investment ratio of 64% over the last three years vs. 11% for the typical stock. As Goldman puts it,\"they are investing their way to superior growth.\"<blockquote>但高盛表示，FAAMG商业模式最显着的方面并不是营收增长，而是它们用于推动增长的运营现金流的数量和份额。2020年，FAAMG的五只股票在研发上花费了1280亿美元，在资本支出上花费了1040亿美元，占标普500总额的22%。FAAMG公布过去三年的增长投资比率为64%，而典型股票的增长投资比率为11%。正如高盛所说，“他们正在通过投资实现卓越的增长。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39ecf24db61c49e18cce9872ed4798fb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"355\">While those are the clearest positives propping up the FAAMGs, they are largely priced in; at the same time there is a list of sizable and growing risks, starting with Biden's proposed tax reform which would raise both corporate and capital gains tax rates and represent possible sources of risk for the FAAMG stocks. If the Biden corporate tax plan were fully enacted, FAAMG 2022E earnings would decrease by roughly 9% relative to consensus expectations. FAAMGs generate approximately 55% of income abroad. Using a back-of-the-envelope approach, applying the proposed 28% domestic statutory rate and 21% tax rate on foreign income to each portion of FAAMG’s income, their collective effective tax rate would rise by 7% to 24% (vs. +6 pp to 25% for the median S&amp;P 500 stock) and would decrease consensus 2022 FAAMG earnings by 9% (vs. -8% for the S&amp;P 500).<blockquote>虽然这些是支撑FAAMG的最明显的积极因素，但它们在很大程度上已被定价；与此同时，还有一系列相当大且不断增长的风险，首先是拜登提出的税收改革，该改革将提高企业和资本利得税率，并代表FAAMG股票的可能风险来源。如果拜登企业税计划全面实施，FAAMG 2022E盈利将比普遍预期下降约9%。FAAMG大约55%的收入来自国外。采用粗略的方法，将拟议的28%国内法定税率和21%国外收入税率应用于FAAMG收入的每一部分，其集体有效税率将上升7%至24%（相比之下，标普500股票中位数为+6个百分点至25%），并将使2022年FAAMG普遍盈利减少9%（而标普500为-8%）。</blockquote> Separately, the FAAMG stocks are also vulnerable to higher capital gains rates. If the capital gains tax rate becomes set to rise in 2022, investors subject to the higher rate may choose to realize some of their substantial capital gains in 2021 at the lower current tax rate.The FAAMG stocks have appreciated by $5 trillion during the last 5 years, accounting for 29% of the S&amp;P 500 market cap increase during that time.Needless to say, if there will be selling, it could be furious.<blockquote>另外，FAAMG股票也容易受到较高资本收益率的影响。如果资本利得税率将在2022年上升，受较高税率约束的投资者可能会选择在2021年以较低的当前税率实现部分巨额资本利得。FAAMG股票在过去5年中升值了5万亿美元，占同期标普500市值增幅的29%。不用说，如果有抛售，它可能会非常愤怒。</blockquote> It doesn't end there: valuation multiples also pose a risk to the FAAMG stocks. Investor conversations around FAAMG inevitably turn to their valuations.FAAMG trades at a forward P/E of 29x (90th percentile for the top 5 stocks since 1980), compared with 21x for the remaining 495 S&amp;P 500 stocks.This 34% P/E premium for the five largest stocks ranks in the 76th percentile since 1980.<blockquote>事情还不止于此：估值倍数也对FAAMG股票构成风险。投资者围绕FAAMG的讨论不可避免地转向他们的估值。FAAMG的预期市盈率为29倍（自1980年以来排名前5的股票的第90百分位），而其余495只标普500股票的预期市盈率为21倍。五只最大股票34%的市盈率溢价自1980年以来排名第76百分位。</blockquote> That said, if multiples were to shrink everything would crash, which is why Kostin writes that \"the current low level of interest rates and the fast pace of expected growth support the lofty multiples of the FAAMG stocks.\" While the nominal 10-year Treasury yield has risen this year, at 1.6% it remains extremely low in historical terms, Kostin also makes some other valuation observations:<blockquote>也就是说，如果市盈率缩水，一切都会崩溃，这就是为什么科斯汀写道，“当前的低利率水平和预期增长的快速步伐支撑了FAAMG股票的高市盈率。”尽管名义10年期国债收益率今年有所上升，但从历史角度来看仍处于极低水平，但科斯汀还提出了其他一些估值观察：</blockquote> Low rates support the valuation of high growth, long duration stocks.FAAMG has an earnings yield gap (E/P less 10Y UST) of 191 bp, above the 40-yearaverage of 144 bp, indicating that the stocks are attractively valued adjusting for thelow level of rates. Valuation on a growth-adjusted basis also looks more reasonable:FAAMG actually trades at a 14% PEG discount to the median S&amp;P 500 stock (1.7xvs. 1.9x). <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c59e188a9f4da2e363d8809ffd3a779\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"355\">While all this worked in an ultra low rates environment, rising interest rates represent a potential headwind to FAAMG returns in coming months (incidentally Goldman rates strategists forecast10-year US Treasury yields will rise by 34bps to 1.90% by the end of 2021). Furthermore,all five FAAMG stocks have above-average duration compared with the Russell 1000, meaning they are especially sensitive to moves in long-term interest rates.As yields rose sharply from November through March, FAAMG underperformed the S&amp;P 500 by 7 pp (+21% vs. +14%). A similar period of rising rates in 2H 2021 would likely hamper FAAMG returns.<blockquote>低利率支持高增长、长期股票的估值。FAAMG的盈利收益率差距（E/P减去10年期UST）为191个基点，高于144个基点的40年平均水平，表明调整后这些股票的估值具有吸引力利率水平。经增长调整后的估值看起来也更合理：FAAMG的交易价格实际上比标普500股票中位数折价14%（1.7 XVS。1.9 x)。虽然所有这些都在超低利率环境下发挥作用，但利率上升对未来几个月FAAMG回报构成了潜在的阻力（顺便说一句，高盛利率策略师预测，到2021年底，10年期美国国债收益率将上升34个基点至1.90%）。此外，与罗素1000指数相比，所有五只FAAMG股票的久期均高于平均水平，这意味着它们对长期利率的变动特别敏感。随着11月至3月收益率大幅上升，FAAMG的表现落后标普500 7个百分点（+21%vs.+14%）。2021年下半年类似的利率上升时期可能会阻碍FAAMG的回报。</blockquote> Putting all this together, Kostin writes that the greatest fundamental risk to the continued market leadership of the five largest companies \"appears to be the potential intervention of regulators.\" He adds that recent Biden administration appointments \"suggest some risk of a stricter regulatory regime and tighter antitrust enforcement.\" He has a point: with the exception of MSFT, the other four FAAMG stocks face a laundry list of legal battles and investigations over their market power and competitive practices ranging from commercial litigation to DoJ and FTC antitrust lawsuits to Congressional probes.<blockquote>科斯汀写道，将所有这些放在一起，五大公司继续保持市场领先地位的最大根本风险“似乎是监管机构的潜在干预”。他补充说，拜登政府最近的任命“表明了更严格的监管制度和更严格的反垄断执法的一些风险”。他说得有道理：除MSFT外，其他四只FAAMG股票因其市场力量和竞争行为而面临一系列法律斗争和调查，从商业诉讼到DoJ和FTC反垄断诉讼再到国会调查。</blockquote> Then again, as Kostin concludes, his year-end 2021 S&amp;P 500 index forecasts of 4300 and 4600 at the end of 2022 assume these companies generate sales and earnings in line with consensus expectations, their relative valuations remain stable, and therefore implicitly that antitrust actions have no major impact.<blockquote>话又说回来，正如Kostin总结的那样，他对2021年底标普500指数的预测为4300和2022年底的4600假设这些公司的销售额和盈利符合普遍预期，它们的相对估值保持稳定，因此隐含着反垄断行动没有重大影响。</blockquote> In short, Goldman clients can just relax and keep buying the FAAMG dip.<blockquote>简而言之，高盛客户可以放松并继续逢低买入FAAMG。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Generals Will Be Back: Goldman Assures Its Clients That FAAMGs Will Make Triumphant Return<blockquote>将军们将会回来：高盛向客户保证FAAMGs将凯旋</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Generals Will Be Back: Goldman Assures Its Clients That FAAMGs Will Make Triumphant Return<blockquote>将军们将会回来：高盛向客户保证FAAMGs将凯旋</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-05-10 15:27\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nEarlier today, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategistMichael Wilson lookedat what was likely the highlight of Q1 earnings season, pointing out that \"the vaunted FAANMG stocks sold off on terrific 1Q earnings results after an outsized run into the event. This was... a reminder that stocks often peak on good news.\"<blockquote>今天早些时候，摩根士丹利首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊(Michael Wilson)研究了第一季度财报季的亮点，他指出，“备受吹捧的FAANMG股票在经历了一次大规模上涨后，因出色的第一季度财报业绩而遭到抛售。这是……提醒人们股市往往会因好消息而见顶。”</blockquote> Not to make a too fine point out of it, suddenly everyone is focusing on the performance of the FAAMG stocks which, after soaring for much of 2020 when they returned 56% and accounted for 7% of the 18% S&amp;P 500 return last year, have gone nowhere in recent months prompting concerns that it's all downhill from here.<blockquote>不要说得太好，突然间，每个人都开始关注FAAMG股票的表现，这些股票在2020年的大部分时间里飙升，回报率为56%，占去年标普500 18%回报率的7%，最近几个月毫无进展，引发了人们对从这里开始一切都在走下坡路的担忧。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, FAAMGs were also the topic of the latest weekly note from Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin, who writes that confronted with the prospect of decelerating US economic activity, the bank's clients are suddenly freaking out about a breakdown in the 5Generals,and are \"asking about the potential for a transition in market leadership\"even as \"many investors have expressed the view that economic deceleration should support the outperformance of the largest “Big Tech” stocks in the market\",a topic which Goldman analyzed recently and which view the bank supports.<blockquote>毫不奇怪，FAAMG也是高盛首席股票策略师David Kostin最新每周报告的主题，他写道，面对美国经济活动减速的前景，该银行的客户突然对5月份的崩溃感到恐慌将军们，并且是“询问市场领导地位转变的潜力”甚至作为“许多投资者表示，经济减速应该会支持市场上最大的“大型科技”股票的跑赢大盘，高盛最近分析了这一主题，并支持该银行的观点。</blockquote> Despite its ringing endorsement of FAAMGs, Kostin admits that one common concern with this thesis relates to the high current market concentration compared with history, to wit:he five largest stocks in the S&amp;P 500 represent 21% of index capitalization, significantly more than the long-term average of 14%, above the 18% at the peak of the Tech bubble in 2000, and only trailing the 25% level reached during mid-2020.This large index weight of the top stocks is important because it serves as a practical headwind to continued appreciation given SEC restrictions on portfolio concentration that limit how much mutual funds can continue to buy them.<blockquote>尽管Kostin强烈支持FAAMGs，但他承认，与历史相比，这篇论文的一个共同担忧与当前市场集中度较高有关，即：标普500最大的五只股票占指数市值的21%，明显高于14%的长期平均水平，高于2000年科技泡沫顶峰时的18%，仅落后于2020年中期达到的25%水平。顶级股票的较大指数权重很重要，因为鉴于美国证券交易委员会对投资组合集中度的限制限制了共同基金可以继续购买这些股票的数量，这实际上是持续升值的阻力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d48151f4a9d0133be4773c6ff3e878b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"338\">Of course, there is a fundamental reason why investors have piled into the FAAMGs, first and foremost, the durability of the revenue streams of these firms during 2020 was in stark contrast with the extreme declines exhibited by many other businesses. Last year, sales for the median S&amp;P 500 company collapsed at its nadir by 7% before partially recovering to post flat full-year growth. In contrast, the five FAAMG stocks collectively grew sales by 18% even at the point of maximum contraction for the economy in 2Q.They grew full-year 2020 revenues by 21% vs. 2019.<blockquote>当然，投资者涌入FAAMG有一个根本原因，首先也是最重要的，这些公司在2020年收入流的持久性与许多其他企业表现出的极端下滑形成鲜明对比。去年，标普500中位数公司的销售额跌至最低点7%，随后部分复苏，全年增长持平。相比之下，即使在第二季度经济最大收缩的时候，五只FAAMG股票的销售额也合计增长了18%。他们2020年全年收入较2019年增长21%.</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8da01105192f6119b179033fa5670b91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"330\">Q1 results show that the FAAMG growth persists. The median S&amp;P 500 stock reported year/year sales growth of 9% and 57% of S&amp;P 500 firms beat consensus sales estimates, with a median positive surprise of 4%. At the same time,the five largest stocks reported aggregate 1Q 2021 sales of $321 billion –a remarkable $24 billion or 8% above consensus – for year/year growth of 41%. For 2022, consensus expects the five stocks will post revenue and EPS growth of 14% and 10%, respectively, compared with 6% and 10% for the median S&amp;P 500 stock.<blockquote>第一季度结果显示，FAAMG持续增长。标普500股票报告的年销售额增长中位数为9%，57%的标普500公司超出了普遍的销售预期，积极的惊喜中位数为4%。同时，五只最大的股票报告2021年第一季度总销售额为3,210亿美元，比市场预期高出240亿美元或8%，同比增长41%2022年，市场普遍预计这五只股票的收入和每股收益将分别增长14%和10%，而标普500股票的中位数分别为6%和10%。</blockquote> But according to Goldman it's not the topline growth that is the most distinguishing aspect of the FAAMG business models, but the amount and share of operating cash flow they devote to driving growth. During 2020, the five FAAMG stocks, spent $128 billion in R&amp;D and another $104 billion on capex, accounting for 22% of the S&amp;P 500 total. FAAMG posted a growth investment ratio of 64% over the last three years vs. 11% for the typical stock. As Goldman puts it,\"they are investing their way to superior growth.\"<blockquote>但高盛表示，FAAMG商业模式最显着的方面并不是营收增长，而是它们用于推动增长的运营现金流的数量和份额。2020年，FAAMG的五只股票在研发上花费了1280亿美元，在资本支出上花费了1040亿美元，占标普500总额的22%。FAAMG公布过去三年的增长投资比率为64%，而典型股票的增长投资比率为11%。正如高盛所说，“他们正在通过投资实现卓越的增长。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39ecf24db61c49e18cce9872ed4798fb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"355\">While those are the clearest positives propping up the FAAMGs, they are largely priced in; at the same time there is a list of sizable and growing risks, starting with Biden's proposed tax reform which would raise both corporate and capital gains tax rates and represent possible sources of risk for the FAAMG stocks. If the Biden corporate tax plan were fully enacted, FAAMG 2022E earnings would decrease by roughly 9% relative to consensus expectations. FAAMGs generate approximately 55% of income abroad. Using a back-of-the-envelope approach, applying the proposed 28% domestic statutory rate and 21% tax rate on foreign income to each portion of FAAMG’s income, their collective effective tax rate would rise by 7% to 24% (vs. +6 pp to 25% for the median S&amp;P 500 stock) and would decrease consensus 2022 FAAMG earnings by 9% (vs. -8% for the S&amp;P 500).<blockquote>虽然这些是支撑FAAMG的最明显的积极因素，但它们在很大程度上已被定价；与此同时，还有一系列相当大且不断增长的风险，首先是拜登提出的税收改革，该改革将提高企业和资本利得税率，并代表FAAMG股票的可能风险来源。如果拜登企业税计划全面实施，FAAMG 2022E盈利将比普遍预期下降约9%。FAAMG大约55%的收入来自国外。采用粗略的方法，将拟议的28%国内法定税率和21%国外收入税率应用于FAAMG收入的每一部分，其集体有效税率将上升7%至24%（相比之下，标普500股票中位数为+6个百分点至25%），并将使2022年FAAMG普遍盈利减少9%（而标普500为-8%）。</blockquote> Separately, the FAAMG stocks are also vulnerable to higher capital gains rates. If the capital gains tax rate becomes set to rise in 2022, investors subject to the higher rate may choose to realize some of their substantial capital gains in 2021 at the lower current tax rate.The FAAMG stocks have appreciated by $5 trillion during the last 5 years, accounting for 29% of the S&amp;P 500 market cap increase during that time.Needless to say, if there will be selling, it could be furious.<blockquote>另外，FAAMG股票也容易受到较高资本收益率的影响。如果资本利得税率将在2022年上升，受较高税率约束的投资者可能会选择在2021年以较低的当前税率实现部分巨额资本利得。FAAMG股票在过去5年中升值了5万亿美元，占同期标普500市值增幅的29%。不用说，如果有抛售，它可能会非常愤怒。</blockquote> It doesn't end there: valuation multiples also pose a risk to the FAAMG stocks. Investor conversations around FAAMG inevitably turn to their valuations.FAAMG trades at a forward P/E of 29x (90th percentile for the top 5 stocks since 1980), compared with 21x for the remaining 495 S&amp;P 500 stocks.This 34% P/E premium for the five largest stocks ranks in the 76th percentile since 1980.<blockquote>事情还不止于此：估值倍数也对FAAMG股票构成风险。投资者围绕FAAMG的讨论不可避免地转向他们的估值。FAAMG的预期市盈率为29倍（自1980年以来排名前5的股票的第90百分位），而其余495只标普500股票的预期市盈率为21倍。五只最大股票34%的市盈率溢价自1980年以来排名第76百分位。</blockquote> That said, if multiples were to shrink everything would crash, which is why Kostin writes that \"the current low level of interest rates and the fast pace of expected growth support the lofty multiples of the FAAMG stocks.\" While the nominal 10-year Treasury yield has risen this year, at 1.6% it remains extremely low in historical terms, Kostin also makes some other valuation observations:<blockquote>也就是说，如果市盈率缩水，一切都会崩溃，这就是为什么科斯汀写道，“当前的低利率水平和预期增长的快速步伐支撑了FAAMG股票的高市盈率。”尽管名义10年期国债收益率今年有所上升，但从历史角度来看仍处于极低水平，但科斯汀还提出了其他一些估值观察：</blockquote> Low rates support the valuation of high growth, long duration stocks.FAAMG has an earnings yield gap (E/P less 10Y UST) of 191 bp, above the 40-yearaverage of 144 bp, indicating that the stocks are attractively valued adjusting for thelow level of rates. Valuation on a growth-adjusted basis also looks more reasonable:FAAMG actually trades at a 14% PEG discount to the median S&amp;P 500 stock (1.7xvs. 1.9x). <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c59e188a9f4da2e363d8809ffd3a779\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"355\">While all this worked in an ultra low rates environment, rising interest rates represent a potential headwind to FAAMG returns in coming months (incidentally Goldman rates strategists forecast10-year US Treasury yields will rise by 34bps to 1.90% by the end of 2021). Furthermore,all five FAAMG stocks have above-average duration compared with the Russell 1000, meaning they are especially sensitive to moves in long-term interest rates.As yields rose sharply from November through March, FAAMG underperformed the S&amp;P 500 by 7 pp (+21% vs. +14%). A similar period of rising rates in 2H 2021 would likely hamper FAAMG returns.<blockquote>低利率支持高增长、长期股票的估值。FAAMG的盈利收益率差距（E/P减去10年期UST）为191个基点，高于144个基点的40年平均水平，表明调整后这些股票的估值具有吸引力利率水平。经增长调整后的估值看起来也更合理：FAAMG的交易价格实际上比标普500股票中位数折价14%（1.7 XVS。1.9 x)。虽然所有这些都在超低利率环境下发挥作用，但利率上升对未来几个月FAAMG回报构成了潜在的阻力（顺便说一句，高盛利率策略师预测，到2021年底，10年期美国国债收益率将上升34个基点至1.90%）。此外，与罗素1000指数相比，所有五只FAAMG股票的久期均高于平均水平，这意味着它们对长期利率的变动特别敏感。随着11月至3月收益率大幅上升，FAAMG的表现落后标普500 7个百分点（+21%vs.+14%）。2021年下半年类似的利率上升时期可能会阻碍FAAMG的回报。</blockquote> Putting all this together, Kostin writes that the greatest fundamental risk to the continued market leadership of the five largest companies \"appears to be the potential intervention of regulators.\" He adds that recent Biden administration appointments \"suggest some risk of a stricter regulatory regime and tighter antitrust enforcement.\" He has a point: with the exception of MSFT, the other four FAAMG stocks face a laundry list of legal battles and investigations over their market power and competitive practices ranging from commercial litigation to DoJ and FTC antitrust lawsuits to Congressional probes.<blockquote>科斯汀写道，将所有这些放在一起，五大公司继续保持市场领先地位的最大根本风险“似乎是监管机构的潜在干预”。他补充说，拜登政府最近的任命“表明了更严格的监管制度和更严格的反垄断执法的一些风险”。他说得有道理：除MSFT外，其他四只FAAMG股票因其市场力量和竞争行为而面临一系列法律斗争和调查，从商业诉讼到DoJ和FTC反垄断诉讼再到国会调查。</blockquote> Then again, as Kostin concludes, his year-end 2021 S&amp;P 500 index forecasts of 4300 and 4600 at the end of 2022 assume these companies generate sales and earnings in line with consensus expectations, their relative valuations remain stable, and therefore implicitly that antitrust actions have no major impact.<blockquote>话又说回来，正如Kostin总结的那样，他对2021年底标普500指数的预测为4300和2022年底的4600假设这些公司的销售额和盈利符合普遍预期，它们的相对估值保持稳定，因此隐含着反垄断行动没有重大影响。</blockquote> In short, Goldman clients can just relax and keep buying the FAAMG dip.<blockquote>简而言之，高盛客户可以放松并继续逢低买入FAAMG。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/generals-will-be-back-goldman-assures-its-clients-faamgs-will-make-triumphant-return\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FB":"ProShares S&P 500 Dynamic Buffer ETF","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","GOOGL":"谷歌A","MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/generals-will-be-back-goldman-assures-its-clients-faamgs-will-make-triumphant-return","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122258040","content_text":"Earlier today, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategistMichael Wilson lookedat what was likely the highlight of Q1 earnings season, pointing out that \"the vaunted FAANMG stocks sold off on terrific 1Q earnings results after an outsized run into the event. This was... a reminder that stocks often peak on good news.\"\nNot to make a too fine point out of it, suddenly everyone is focusing on the performance of the FAAMG stocks which, after soaring for much of 2020 when they returned 56% and accounted for 7% of the 18% S&P 500 return last year, have gone nowhere in recent months prompting concerns that it's all downhill from here.\nNot surprisingly, FAAMGs were also the topic of the latest weekly note from Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin, who writes that confronted with the prospect of decelerating US economic activity, the bank's clients are suddenly freaking out about a breakdown in the 5Generals,and are \"asking about the potential for a transition in market leadership\"even as \"many investors have expressed the view that economic deceleration should support the outperformance of the largest “Big Tech” stocks in the market\",a topic which Goldman analyzed recently and which view the bank supports.\nDespite its ringing endorsement of FAAMGs, Kostin admits that one common concern with this thesis relates to the high current market concentration compared with history, to wit:he five largest stocks in the S&P 500 represent 21% of index capitalization, significantly more than the long-term average of 14%, above the 18% at the peak of the Tech bubble in 2000, and only trailing the 25% level reached during mid-2020.This large index weight of the top stocks is important because it serves as a practical headwind to continued appreciation given SEC restrictions on portfolio concentration that limit how much mutual funds can continue to buy them.\nOf course, there is a fundamental reason why investors have piled into the FAAMGs, first and foremost, the durability of the revenue streams of these firms during 2020 was in stark contrast with the extreme declines exhibited by many other businesses. Last year, sales for the median S&P 500 company collapsed at its nadir by 7% before partially recovering to post flat full-year growth. In contrast, the five FAAMG stocks collectively grew sales by 18% even at the point of maximum contraction for the economy in 2Q.They grew full-year 2020 revenues by 21% vs. 2019.\nQ1 results show that the FAAMG growth persists. The median S&P 500 stock reported year/year sales growth of 9% and 57% of S&P 500 firms beat consensus sales estimates, with a median positive surprise of 4%. At the same time,the five largest stocks reported aggregate 1Q 2021 sales of $321 billion –a remarkable $24 billion or 8% above consensus – for year/year growth of 41%. For 2022, consensus expects the five stocks will post revenue and EPS growth of 14% and 10%, respectively, compared with 6% and 10% for the median S&P 500 stock.\nBut according to Goldman it's not the topline growth that is the most distinguishing aspect of the FAAMG business models, but the amount and share of operating cash flow they devote to driving growth. During 2020, the five FAAMG stocks, spent $128 billion in R&D and another $104 billion on capex, accounting for 22% of the S&P 500 total. FAAMG posted a growth investment ratio of 64% over the last three years vs. 11% for the typical stock. As Goldman puts it,\"they are investing their way to superior growth.\"\nWhile those are the clearest positives propping up the FAAMGs, they are largely priced in; at the same time there is a list of sizable and growing risks, starting with Biden's proposed tax reform which would raise both corporate and capital gains tax rates and represent possible sources of risk for the FAAMG stocks. If the Biden corporate tax plan were fully enacted, FAAMG 2022E earnings would decrease by roughly 9% relative to consensus expectations. FAAMGs generate approximately 55% of income abroad. Using a back-of-the-envelope approach, applying the proposed 28% domestic statutory rate and 21% tax rate on foreign income to each portion of FAAMG’s income, their collective effective tax rate would rise by 7% to 24% (vs. +6 pp to 25% for the median S&P 500 stock) and would decrease consensus 2022 FAAMG earnings by 9% (vs. -8% for the S&P 500).\nSeparately, the FAAMG stocks are also vulnerable to higher capital gains rates. If the capital gains tax rate becomes set to rise in 2022, investors subject to the higher rate may choose to realize some of their substantial capital gains in 2021 at the lower current tax rate.The FAAMG stocks have appreciated by $5 trillion during the last 5 years, accounting for 29% of the S&P 500 market cap increase during that time.Needless to say, if there will be selling, it could be furious.\nIt doesn't end there: valuation multiples also pose a risk to the FAAMG stocks. Investor conversations around FAAMG inevitably turn to their valuations.FAAMG trades at a forward P/E of 29x (90th percentile for the top 5 stocks since 1980), compared with 21x for the remaining 495 S&P 500 stocks.This 34% P/E premium for the five largest stocks ranks in the 76th percentile since 1980.\nThat said, if multiples were to shrink everything would crash, which is why Kostin writes that \"the current low level of interest rates and the fast pace of expected growth support the lofty multiples of the FAAMG stocks.\" While the nominal 10-year Treasury yield has risen this year, at 1.6% it remains extremely low in historical terms, Kostin also makes some other valuation observations:\n\n Low rates support the valuation of high growth, long duration stocks.FAAMG has an earnings yield gap (E/P less 10Y UST) of 191 bp, above the 40-yearaverage of 144 bp, indicating that the stocks are attractively valued adjusting for thelow level of rates.\n Valuation on a growth-adjusted basis also looks more reasonable:FAAMG actually trades at a 14% PEG discount to the median S&P 500 stock (1.7xvs. 1.9x).\n\nWhile all this worked in an ultra low rates environment, rising interest rates represent a potential headwind to FAAMG returns in coming months (incidentally Goldman rates strategists forecast10-year US Treasury yields will rise by 34bps to 1.90% by the end of 2021). Furthermore,all five FAAMG stocks have above-average duration compared with the Russell 1000, meaning they are especially sensitive to moves in long-term interest rates.As yields rose sharply from November through March, FAAMG underperformed the S&P 500 by 7 pp (+21% vs. +14%). A similar period of rising rates in 2H 2021 would likely hamper FAAMG returns.\nPutting all this together, Kostin writes that the greatest fundamental risk to the continued market leadership of the five largest companies \"appears to be the potential intervention of regulators.\" He adds that recent Biden administration appointments \"suggest some risk of a stricter regulatory regime and tighter antitrust enforcement.\" He has a point: with the exception of MSFT, the other four FAAMG stocks face a laundry list of legal battles and investigations over their market power and competitive practices ranging from commercial litigation to DoJ and FTC antitrust lawsuits to Congressional probes.\nThen again, as Kostin concludes, his year-end 2021 S&P 500 index forecasts of 4300 and 4600 at the end of 2022 assume these companies generate sales and earnings in line with consensus expectations, their relative valuations remain stable, and therefore implicitly that antitrust actions have no major impact.\nIn short, Goldman clients can just relax and keep buying the FAAMG dip.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"FB":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"MSFT":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4279145,"gmtCreate":1620635161051,"gmtModify":1635498947703,"authorId":3574671514316116,"author":{"id":3574671514316116,"idStr":"3574671514316116","authorId":3574671514316116,"name":"KryZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91c62b44c75f8a4a9e0b7566bd02134d","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":190516126,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"FAANG will always triumph in the longer term.","text":"FAANG will always triumph in the longer term.","html":"FAANG will always triumph in the longer term."}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":20,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1122258040","isCrawlerRequest":true}