暴跌2万亿！

格隆汇05-30

本文作者 | 深鹏数据支持 | 勾股大数据（www.gogudata.com）经历了连日的下跌，周五腾讯终于反弹了。游戏发布会上，AI相关内容较多，提振了市场情绪。不过，去年9月时，其股价曾经冲高到677港元，距离21年的历史性高位，真的仅一步之遥。那时的市场，对它充满信心，憧憬着历史新高的到来。可惜的是，自此之后股价便掉头向下，至今已经跌去超过30%，市值蒸发超过2万亿港币。从走势上看，虽然...

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宝贝歪歪
06-01
宝贝歪歪
对于99%的普通用户来说，服务质量雷同的大模型很快会沦为功能雷同的工具软件，那么用户在哪里能用上谁的大模型是看谁有流量的。这一天很快就会到来。PS：谁最容易产生AI使用场景和付费场景是最终定胜负的关键。

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trillion!","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f0f9168de344a62b6b5c44901ace435","symbols_score_info":{"TCEHY":1.97,"HTCD.SI":0.6,"00700":1.97},"content_text":"本文作者 |  深鹏数据支持 | 勾股大数据（www.gogudata.com）经历了连日的下跌，周五腾讯终于反弹了。游戏发布会上，AI相关内容较多，提振了市场情绪。不过，去年9月时，其股价曾经冲高到677港元，距离21年的历史性高位，真的仅一步之遥。那时的市场，对它充满信心，憧憬着历史新高的到来。可惜的是，自此之后股价便掉头向下，至今已经跌去超过30%，市值蒸发超过2万亿港币。从走势上看，虽然中间有一些反弹，但下行趋势确实很明显。吊诡的是，同一时期交出的财报并不难看，游戏收入稳健增长，广告业务增速亮眼，微信月活稳居14亿以上。业绩在涨，股价在跌。究竟是意料之外，还是情理之中？01怎么啦？市值的下跌，虽然有一些交易层、资金层和政策层的原因，但最被广泛接受的解释，是其在AI上投入不足，进展缓慢。毕竟，现在很多科技公司的估值溢价，只因两个字：AI。有一张图很直观，元宝明显落后，这与微信在社交领域中的绝对垄断地位形成鲜明对比。更不安的是，抖音系应用的用户时长占比在2026年1月达到37.4%，首次超过腾讯的30.0%。从产业端的角度看，同行都在砸钱做AI算力投资，它却异常低调和克制。2025年，其资本开支792亿元，同比增长仅3%；同期字节跳动资本开支飙升至1600亿以上，26年追加到2000亿，而阿里3800亿（未来数年累积）的资本开支，更是一度疯狂刷屏。是没有钱吗？当然不是。刚公布的26Q1财报，其现金及等价物高达2178亿，超过阿里的1315亿，自由现金流（净流入）567亿，而阿里是净流出173亿。现在，全球科技巨头都在疯狂砸钱买GPU，虽然屡遭质疑，并因此导致股价大幅下跌，但反过来说，如果不肯投钱，后果会是什么呢？先发优势丧失！这可能是AI投资最大的悖论：烧钱，利润和现金流跌，但估值有溢价（尽管也经常面对质疑）；不烧钱，利润和现金流保住，但估值溢价消失。腾讯的PE（TTM）已经跌穿15倍，落后于阿里（约20倍）。这种估值水位，已经滑向公用事业，不能说完全抹掉AI溢价，但即使有，也很小了。当然，也有观点认为，这是“等”字诀的体现，等算力成本下降，等国产替代成熟，等开源模型拉平差距，属于典型的“追随者”策略。但资本是势利眼，既然你“投入不足”，那我就“先走为敬”了，等你哪天“又行了”，我再回来。02旧路径任何具体的经营行为、决策动作，其实都是战略层面的体现。腾讯在战略上，一直以“稳”著称。将这种战略转化成具体的经营行为，一个是“对内做流量”，另一个是“对外做投资”。因为手握社交聊天工具这个天然流量王牌，以及社交、广告、游戏等天然的现金流工具，它当然有底气做这些行为。2015年，小马哥在全球合作伙伴大会上首次公开阐释了这一理念：“我喜欢自留‘半条命’这个说法，把另外半条命交给合作伙伴。”此后，这一表述成为公司战略思想的标签：只做自己最擅长的事情，把其他领域让给生态伙伴。在2016年与清华大学经管学院院长的对谈中，他进一步阐述了这一理念的演化逻辑：“几年前，腾讯的战略是不开放的，很多业务都自己做，好多都失败。我们电商做不过人家，卖掉了；搜索也一样。我们思考如何让各种物种在大树下成长？如何让大树变成一片森林？”这套逻辑的底层是风险规避思维：与其在非核心领域与专业对手死磕，不如通过投资和合作建立生态。这既是一种战略选择，也是一种资源约束下的生存智慧。与“半条命”理论相辅相成的，是他对“速度”的独特理解。在2026年初的员工大会上，他明确表示：“每个企业的基因不同、体质不同，腾讯的风格就是稳扎稳打。”他强调，在AI战略上，腾讯有自己的考虑和节奏，核心是“产品的长期竞争力和用户的体验”。这种“稳扎稳打”体现在具体的战略判断上。面对外界对AI投入不足的质疑，他曾给出一个极具代表性的类比：“对于工业革命而言，早一个月拿出电灯泡，在长周期维度下并不那么重要。”这种理念与其核心业务的属性高度匹配：社交和游戏业务具有极强的网络效应和用户粘性，一旦建立起优势，很难被颠覆。因此，他有底气“等一等”，让竞争对手先去试错，自己再择机入场。在游戏、社交网络、支付领域，都曾验证过这一路径的有效性，也形成了在核心业务上保持稳健，在新业务上保持克制的经营风格。03开新路？要说腾讯在AI上毫不作为，也不对。从公开信息中，其AI领域投资是有布局的，而且收益上还相当可以。例如，MiniMax上市后回报19.78倍，智谱回报36.6倍，摩尔线程约17倍。不过，在自建方面，确实没有太多动作。暂时可以得出一个结论，他依然沿用过去的思维。于是，最核心问题来了，过去的成功路径，是否还适用于AI时代呢？说实话，现在还真的无法定论。不过，这并不妨碍我们做一个推理，先声明，以下推理都是基于已经公开信息，无法穿透到企业内部，存在未尽事宜，仅供参考。即：如果沿用“给钱给流量”的做法，会呈现什么样的一个情景呢？比如，如果看上了一个AI模型创业公司，腾讯可以几十亿上百亿地入股，并把微信的流量都倒给它。但创业公司拿到了钱，也拿到了流量，是否就可以成长为一个头部AI模型公司呢？资金和流量当然是好东西，但最终也要取决于他们的模型能力，比如参数、训练效果、推理能力，还有具体的市占率、渗透率等等。更直白的解释是，如果豆包的回答确实比元宝好，用户会无视微信里满屏的元宝接口，也不会介意从微信切换到豆包APP所浪费的时间。不能说对外投资完全不行，因为open AI、claude就是成功例子。问题只是，目前模型公司基本呈现三足鼎立的态势，美国是open AI、claude、gemini，中国是豆包、阿里和DS。腾讯即便有机会入股这些公司，但股权占比不会高，主导权更别提了，而排名靠后的模型公司，价格很便宜，主导权也给你，但你还想要吗？这让我不由得回想起当年微软收购诺基亚。这个经典的失败案例，说明当头部阵营（当年是IOS、安卓）确立之后，即使再有钱，技术能力也很顶级，也难撼动。因为IT世界存在一个物理定律--赢家通吃。算力的问题，逻辑其实也一样，腾讯可以看上一些专门提供算力的公司（海外就有像coreweave这类纯算力出租商），然后大把大把地给钱，又给很多社交媒体流量，但这就能催生出一个大型AI云计算公司呢？如果说模型还可以用open AI、claude扯一下，这个问题就没有“帮手”了。因为，直到现在，大厂们全都是自己建算力，他们也会做一些外购，但比例都不高，用做暂时过渡或小比例互补。正如硬币不可能同时呈现两面，对于自建算力这个事，烧钱的和不烧钱的，肯定有一个是错的。至于微信流量，在算力这个事上，可以略过。04结语说了这么多，不管逻辑自洽不自洽，其实还是得承认，市场讯息万变，答案并不是简单的yes 或 no。尤其是对于腾讯，钱又有，能力也不差。还有一点很重要，那就是其庞大的数据资源，包括社交、娱乐、购物、支付、金融等等，涵盖了各个领域。这些数据在AI时代价值连城，是训练和推理AI模型最重要的“原材料”。因此，如果因为腾讯求稳，就说它不行了，也不尽然。而且，他们已经正式对外宣布，2026年AI投入将“至少翻倍”，并调整资金优先级——减少回购，为AI算力让路。回到股价，现在鹅厂和资本的博弈，确实很焦灼。但我想，这对企业自身乃至整个AI产业、资本市场、投资者，甚至更广阔的领域，都绝不是坏事。而且，任何人都不能排除，哪天它启动大改革，全力以赴做AI，逻辑反转，绝地反弹的可能性。要知道，这种旧科技公司翻身的案例，在资本市场上并不少，例如苹果、微软。因为很多时候，向左还是向右，就在老板的一念之间。以资本的嗅觉，一旦他们觉得你逻辑反转了，扫货的速度，那就是超音速。至于这场博弈终局会是如此，我们这里不再推测了，一切等时间证明吧。（全文完）","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":570515660349656,"gmtCreate":1780292792820,"gmtModify":1780294136772,"author":{"id":"3474922744686452","authorId":"3474922744686452","name":"宝贝歪歪","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3474922744686452","idStr":"3474922744686452"},"htmlText":"对于99%的普通用户来说，服务质量雷同的大模型很快会沦为功能雷同的工具软件，那么用户在哪里能用上谁的大模型是看谁有流量的。这一天很快就会到来。PS：谁最容易产生AI使用场景和付费场景是最终定胜负的关键。","listText":"对于99%的普通用户来说，服务质量雷同的大模型很快会沦为功能雷同的工具软件，那么用户在哪里能用上谁的大模型是看谁有流量的。这一天很快就会到来。PS：谁最容易产生AI使用场景和付费场景是最终定胜负的关键。","text":"对于99%的普通用户来说，服务质量雷同的大模型很快会沦为功能雷同的工具软件，那么用户在哪里能用上谁的大模型是看谁有流量的。这一天很快就会到来。PS：谁最容易产生AI使用场景和付费场景是最终定胜负的关键。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/570515660349656","repostId":2639606596,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2639606596","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1780126241,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2639606596?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-30 15:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"暴跌2万亿！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2639606596","media":"格隆汇","summary":"还行吗？","content":"<html><body>本文作者 |  深鹏数据支持 | 勾股大数据（www.gogudata.com）<img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/b83a5-ab365baf-330d-4094-bb61-345e0812125b.jpg?guru_height=44&amp;guru_width=1080&amp;guru_size=6688\"/>经历了连日的下跌，周五<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>终于反弹了。游戏发布会上，AI相关内容较多，提振了市场情绪。不过，去年9月时，其股价曾经冲高到677港元，距离21年的历史性高位，真的仅一步之遥。那时的市场，对它充满信心，憧憬着历史新高的到来。可惜的是，自此之后股价便掉头向下，至今已经跌去超过30%，市值蒸发超过2万亿港币。<img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/54879-62f1e81e-bc52-4a51-bb2a-70d3e8a8bd18.jpg?guru_height=554&amp;guru_width=865&amp;guru_size=57506\"/>从走势上看，虽然中间有一些反弹，但下行趋势确实很明显。吊诡的是，同一时期交出的财报并不难看，游戏收入稳健增长，广告业务增速亮眼，微信月活稳居14亿以上。业绩在涨，股价在跌。究竟是意料之外，还是情理之中？<h3>01</h3><h3>怎么啦？</h3>市值的下跌，虽然有一些交易层、资金层和政策层的原因，但最被广泛接受的解释，是其在AI上投入不足，进展缓慢。毕竟，现在很多科技公司的估值溢价，只因两个字：AI。有一张图很直观，元宝明显落后，这与微信在社交领域中的绝对垄断地位形成鲜明对比。<img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/534af-291a9493-c9a7-4ff0-92f2-4ca160eed8de.jpg?guru_height=381&amp;guru_width=579&amp;guru_size=30932\"/>更不安的是，抖音系应用的用户时长占比在2026年1月达到37.4%，首次超过腾讯的30.0%。从产业端的角度看，同行都在砸钱做AI算力投资，它却异常低调和克制。2025年，其资本开支792亿元，同比增长仅3%；同期字节跳动资本开支飙升至1600亿以上，26年追加到2000亿，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里</a>3800亿（未来数年累积）的资本开支，更是一度疯狂刷屏。是没有钱吗？当然不是。刚公布的26Q1财报，其现金及等价物高达2178亿，超过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里</a>的1315亿，自由现金流（净流入）567亿，而阿里是净流出173亿。现在，全球科技巨头都在疯狂砸钱买GPU，虽然屡遭质疑，并因此导致股价大幅下跌，但反过来说，如果不肯投钱，后果会是什么呢？先发优势丧失！这可能是AI投资最大的悖论：烧钱，利润和现金流跌，但估值有溢价（尽管也经常面对质疑）；不烧钱，利润和现金流保住，但估值溢价消失。腾讯的PE（TTM）已经跌穿15倍，落后于阿里（约20倍）。这种估值水位，已经滑向公用事业，不能说完全抹掉AI溢价，但即使有，也很小了。当然，也有观点认为，这是“等”字诀的体现，等算力成本下降，等国产替代成熟，等开源模型拉平差距，属于典型的“追随者”策略。但资本是势利眼，既然你“投入不足”，那我就“先走为敬”了，等你哪天“又行了”，我再回来。<h3>02</h3><h3>旧路径</h3>任何具体的经营行为、决策动作，其实都是战略层面的体现。腾讯在战略上，一直以“稳”著称。将这种战略转化成具体的经营行为，一个是“对内做流量”，另一个是“对外做投资”。因为手握社交聊天工具这个天然流量王牌，以及社交、广告、游戏等天然的现金流工具，它当然有底气做这些行为。2015年，小马哥在全球合作伙伴大会上首次公开阐释了这一理念：“我喜欢自留‘半条命’这个说法，把另外半条命交给合作伙伴。”此后，这一表述成为公司战略思想的标签：只做自己最擅长的事情，把其他领域让给生态伙伴。在2016年与清华大学经管学院院长的对谈中，他进一步阐述了这一理念的演化逻辑：“几年前，腾讯的战略是不开放的，很多业务都自己做，好多都失败。我们电商做不过人家，卖掉了；搜索也一样。我们思考如何让各种物种在大树下成长？如何让大树变成一片森林？”这套逻辑的底层是风险规避思维：与其在非核心领域与专业对手死磕，不如通过投资和合作建立生态。这既是一种战略选择，也是一种资源约束下的生存智慧。与“半条命”理论相辅相成的，是他对“速度”的独特理解。在2026年初的员工大会上，他明确表示：“每个企业的基因不同、体质不同，腾讯的风格就是稳扎稳打。”他强调，在AI战略上，腾讯有自己的考虑和节奏，核心是“产品的长期竞争力和用户的体验”。这种“稳扎稳打”体现在具体的战略判断上。面对外界对AI投入不足的质疑，他曾给出一个极具代表性的类比：“对于工业革命而言，早一个月拿出电灯泡，在长周期维度下并不那么重要。”这种理念与其核心业务的属性高度匹配：社交和游戏业务具有极强的网络效应和用户粘性，一旦建立起优势，很难被颠覆。因此，他有底气“等一等”，让竞争对手先去试错，自己再择机入场。在游戏、社交网络、支付领域，都曾验证过这一路径的有效性，也形成了在核心业务上保持稳健，在新业务上保持克制的经营风格。<h3>03</h3><h3>开新路？</h3>要说腾讯在AI上毫不作为，也不对。从公开信息中，其AI领域投资是有布局的，而且收益上还相当可以。例如，MiniMax上市后回报19.78倍，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02513\">智谱</a>回报36.6倍，摩尔线程约17倍。不过，在自建方面，确实没有太多动作。暂时可以得出一个结论，他依然沿用过去的思维。于是，最核心问题来了，过去的成功路径，是否还适用于AI时代呢？说实话，现在还真的无法定论。不过，这并不妨碍我们做一个推理，先声明，以下推理都是基于已经公开信息，无法穿透到企业内部，存在未尽事宜，仅供参考。即：如果沿用“给钱给流量”的做法，会呈现什么样的一个情景呢？比如，如果看上了一个AI模型<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">创业公司</a>，腾讯可以几十亿上百亿地入股，并把微信的流量都倒给它。但创业公司拿到了钱，也拿到了流量，是否就可以成长为一个头部AI模型公司呢？资金和流量当然是好东西，但最终也要取决于他们的模型能力，比如参数、训练效果、推理能力，还有具体的市占率、渗透率等等。更直白的解释是，如果豆包的回答确实比元宝好，用户会无视微信里满屏的元宝接口，也不会介意从微信切换到豆包APP所浪费的时间。不能说对外投资完全不行，因为open AI、claude就是成功例子。问题只是，目前模型公司基本呈现三足鼎立的态势，美国是open AI、claude、gemini，中国是豆包、阿里和DS。腾讯即便有机会入股这些公司，但股权占比不会高，主导权更别提了，而排名靠后的模型公司，价格很便宜，主导权也给你，但你还想要吗？这让我不由得回想起当年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>收购<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">诺基亚</a>。这个经典的失败案例，说明当头部阵营（当年是IOS、安卓）确立之后，即使再有钱，技术能力也很顶级，也难撼动。因为IT世界存在一个物理定律--赢家通吃。算力的问题，逻辑其实也一样，腾讯可以看上一些专门提供算力的公司（海外就有像coreweave这类纯算力出租商），然后大把大把地给钱，又给很多社交媒体流量，但这就能催生出一个大型AI云计算公司呢？如果说模型还可以用open AI、claude扯一下，这个问题就没有“帮手”了。因为，直到现在，大厂们全都是自己建算力，他们也会做一些外购，但比例都不高，用做暂时过渡或小比例互补。正如硬币不可能同时呈现两面，对于自建算力这个事，烧钱的和不烧钱的，肯定有一个是错的。至于微信流量，在算力这个事上，可以略过。<h3>04</h3><h3>结语</h3>说了这么多，不管逻辑自洽不自洽，其实还是得承认，市场讯息万变，答案并不是简单的yes 或 no。尤其是对于腾讯，钱又有，能力也不差。还有一点很重要，那就是其庞大的数据资源，包括社交、娱乐、购物、支付、金融等等，涵盖了各个领域。这些数据在AI时代价值连城，是训练和推理AI模型最重要的“原材料”。因此，如果因为腾讯求稳，就说它不行了，也不尽然。而且，他们已经正式对外宣布，2026年AI投入将“至少翻倍”，并调整资金优先级——减少回购，为AI算力让路。回到股价，现在鹅厂和资本的博弈，确实很焦灼。但我想，这对企业自身乃至整个AI产业、资本市场、投资者，甚至更广阔的领域，都绝不是坏事。而且，任何人都不能排除，哪天它启动大改革，全力以赴做AI，逻辑反转，绝地反弹的可能性。要知道，这种旧科技公司翻身的案例，在资本市场上并不少，例如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、微软。因为很多时候，向左还是向右，就在老板的一念之间。以资本的嗅觉，一旦他们觉得你逻辑反转了，扫货的速度，那就是超音速。至于这场博弈终局会是如此，我们这里不再推测了，一切等时间证明吧。（全文完）</body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n暴跌2万亿！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-30 15:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4989245>格隆汇</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n本文作者 |  深鹏数据支持 | 勾股大数据（www.gogudata.com）经历了连日的下跌，周五腾讯终于反弹了。游戏发布会上，AI相关内容较多，提振了市场情绪。不过，去年9月时，其股价曾经冲高到677港元，距离21年的历史性高位，真的仅一步之遥。那时的市场，对它充满信心，憧憬着历史新高的到来。可惜的是，自此之后股价便掉头向下，至今已经跌去超过30%，市值蒸发超过2万亿港币。从走势上看，虽然...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4989245\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img3.gelonghui.com/192cd-95c90cf0-7720-4341-8632-9695efae6579.jpg?guru_height=5344&guru_width=9504&guru_size=2660124","relate_stocks":{"LU1023057109.AUD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0828238088.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF GLBL EMGNG MKT OPPS \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1725190679.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF EMERGING MARKETS MULTI-ASSET \"A\" (HKD) INC MF","IE00BF5LJ272.USD":"Legg Mason Martin Currie - Global Emerging Markets A Acc USD","LU0700851271.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF EMERGING MARKETS MULTI-ASSET \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2362540622.SGD":"WELLINGTON NEXT GENERATION GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2476274308.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES \"AT\" (USD) ACC","SG9999001903.USD":"Aberdeen Standard Pacific Equity USD","LU0348783233.USD":"安联东方收入型 CI A Dis美元","LU0918141887.USD":"安联亚洲实际收益股票基金","SG9999006514.SGD":"United Asia Consumer Fund 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ALL CHINA EQUITIES \"I\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/4989245","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2639606596","content_text":"本文作者 |  深鹏数据支持 | 勾股大数据（www.gogudata.com）经历了连日的下跌，周五腾讯终于反弹了。游戏发布会上，AI相关内容较多，提振了市场情绪。不过，去年9月时，其股价曾经冲高到677港元，距离21年的历史性高位，真的仅一步之遥。那时的市场，对它充满信心，憧憬着历史新高的到来。可惜的是，自此之后股价便掉头向下，至今已经跌去超过30%，市值蒸发超过2万亿港币。从走势上看，虽然中间有一些反弹，但下行趋势确实很明显。吊诡的是，同一时期交出的财报并不难看，游戏收入稳健增长，广告业务增速亮眼，微信月活稳居14亿以上。业绩在涨，股价在跌。究竟是意料之外，还是情理之中？01怎么啦？市值的下跌，虽然有一些交易层、资金层和政策层的原因，但最被广泛接受的解释，是其在AI上投入不足，进展缓慢。毕竟，现在很多科技公司的估值溢价，只因两个字：AI。有一张图很直观，元宝明显落后，这与微信在社交领域中的绝对垄断地位形成鲜明对比。更不安的是，抖音系应用的用户时长占比在2026年1月达到37.4%，首次超过腾讯的30.0%。从产业端的角度看，同行都在砸钱做AI算力投资，它却异常低调和克制。2025年，其资本开支792亿元，同比增长仅3%；同期字节跳动资本开支飙升至1600亿以上，26年追加到2000亿，而阿里3800亿（未来数年累积）的资本开支，更是一度疯狂刷屏。是没有钱吗？当然不是。刚公布的26Q1财报，其现金及等价物高达2178亿，超过阿里的1315亿，自由现金流（净流入）567亿，而阿里是净流出173亿。现在，全球科技巨头都在疯狂砸钱买GPU，虽然屡遭质疑，并因此导致股价大幅下跌，但反过来说，如果不肯投钱，后果会是什么呢？先发优势丧失！这可能是AI投资最大的悖论：烧钱，利润和现金流跌，但估值有溢价（尽管也经常面对质疑）；不烧钱，利润和现金流保住，但估值溢价消失。腾讯的PE（TTM）已经跌穿15倍，落后于阿里（约20倍）。这种估值水位，已经滑向公用事业，不能说完全抹掉AI溢价，但即使有，也很小了。当然，也有观点认为，这是“等”字诀的体现，等算力成本下降，等国产替代成熟，等开源模型拉平差距，属于典型的“追随者”策略。但资本是势利眼，既然你“投入不足”，那我就“先走为敬”了，等你哪天“又行了”，我再回来。02旧路径任何具体的经营行为、决策动作，其实都是战略层面的体现。腾讯在战略上，一直以“稳”著称。将这种战略转化成具体的经营行为，一个是“对内做流量”，另一个是“对外做投资”。因为手握社交聊天工具这个天然流量王牌，以及社交、广告、游戏等天然的现金流工具，它当然有底气做这些行为。2015年，小马哥在全球合作伙伴大会上首次公开阐释了这一理念：“我喜欢自留‘半条命’这个说法，把另外半条命交给合作伙伴。”此后，这一表述成为公司战略思想的标签：只做自己最擅长的事情，把其他领域让给生态伙伴。在2016年与清华大学经管学院院长的对谈中，他进一步阐述了这一理念的演化逻辑：“几年前，腾讯的战略是不开放的，很多业务都自己做，好多都失败。我们电商做不过人家，卖掉了；搜索也一样。我们思考如何让各种物种在大树下成长？如何让大树变成一片森林？”这套逻辑的底层是风险规避思维：与其在非核心领域与专业对手死磕，不如通过投资和合作建立生态。这既是一种战略选择，也是一种资源约束下的生存智慧。与“半条命”理论相辅相成的，是他对“速度”的独特理解。在2026年初的员工大会上，他明确表示：“每个企业的基因不同、体质不同，腾讯的风格就是稳扎稳打。”他强调，在AI战略上，腾讯有自己的考虑和节奏，核心是“产品的长期竞争力和用户的体验”。这种“稳扎稳打”体现在具体的战略判断上。面对外界对AI投入不足的质疑，他曾给出一个极具代表性的类比：“对于工业革命而言，早一个月拿出电灯泡，在长周期维度下并不那么重要。”这种理念与其核心业务的属性高度匹配：社交和游戏业务具有极强的网络效应和用户粘性，一旦建立起优势，很难被颠覆。因此，他有底气“等一等”，让竞争对手先去试错，自己再择机入场。在游戏、社交网络、支付领域，都曾验证过这一路径的有效性，也形成了在核心业务上保持稳健，在新业务上保持克制的经营风格。03开新路？要说腾讯在AI上毫不作为，也不对。从公开信息中，其AI领域投资是有布局的，而且收益上还相当可以。例如，MiniMax上市后回报19.78倍，智谱回报36.6倍，摩尔线程约17倍。不过，在自建方面，确实没有太多动作。暂时可以得出一个结论，他依然沿用过去的思维。于是，最核心问题来了，过去的成功路径，是否还适用于AI时代呢？说实话，现在还真的无法定论。不过，这并不妨碍我们做一个推理，先声明，以下推理都是基于已经公开信息，无法穿透到企业内部，存在未尽事宜，仅供参考。即：如果沿用“给钱给流量”的做法，会呈现什么样的一个情景呢？比如，如果看上了一个AI模型创业公司，腾讯可以几十亿上百亿地入股，并把微信的流量都倒给它。但创业公司拿到了钱，也拿到了流量，是否就可以成长为一个头部AI模型公司呢？资金和流量当然是好东西，但最终也要取决于他们的模型能力，比如参数、训练效果、推理能力，还有具体的市占率、渗透率等等。更直白的解释是，如果豆包的回答确实比元宝好，用户会无视微信里满屏的元宝接口，也不会介意从微信切换到豆包APP所浪费的时间。不能说对外投资完全不行，因为open AI、claude就是成功例子。问题只是，目前模型公司基本呈现三足鼎立的态势，美国是open AI、claude、gemini，中国是豆包、阿里和DS。腾讯即便有机会入股这些公司，但股权占比不会高，主导权更别提了，而排名靠后的模型公司，价格很便宜，主导权也给你，但你还想要吗？这让我不由得回想起当年微软收购诺基亚。这个经典的失败案例，说明当头部阵营（当年是IOS、安卓）确立之后，即使再有钱，技术能力也很顶级，也难撼动。因为IT世界存在一个物理定律--赢家通吃。算力的问题，逻辑其实也一样，腾讯可以看上一些专门提供算力的公司（海外就有像coreweave这类纯算力出租商），然后大把大把地给钱，又给很多社交媒体流量，但这就能催生出一个大型AI云计算公司呢？如果说模型还可以用open AI、claude扯一下，这个问题就没有“帮手”了。因为，直到现在，大厂们全都是自己建算力，他们也会做一些外购，但比例都不高，用做暂时过渡或小比例互补。正如硬币不可能同时呈现两面，对于自建算力这个事，烧钱的和不烧钱的，肯定有一个是错的。至于微信流量，在算力这个事上，可以略过。04结语说了这么多，不管逻辑自洽不自洽，其实还是得承认，市场讯息万变，答案并不是简单的yes 或 no。尤其是对于腾讯，钱又有，能力也不差。还有一点很重要，那就是其庞大的数据资源，包括社交、娱乐、购物、支付、金融等等，涵盖了各个领域。这些数据在AI时代价值连城，是训练和推理AI模型最重要的“原材料”。因此，如果因为腾讯求稳，就说它不行了，也不尽然。而且，他们已经正式对外宣布，2026年AI投入将“至少翻倍”，并调整资金优先级——减少回购，为AI算力让路。回到股价，现在鹅厂和资本的博弈，确实很焦灼。但我想，这对企业自身乃至整个AI产业、资本市场、投资者，甚至更广阔的领域，都绝不是坏事。而且，任何人都不能排除，哪天它启动大改革，全力以赴做AI，逻辑反转，绝地反弹的可能性。要知道，这种旧科技公司翻身的案例，在资本市场上并不少，例如苹果、微软。因为很多时候，向左还是向右，就在老板的一念之间。以资本的嗅觉，一旦他们觉得你逻辑反转了，扫货的速度，那就是超音速。至于这场博弈终局会是如此，我们这里不再推测了，一切等时间证明吧。（全文完）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TCEHY":1.97,"HTCD.SI":0.6,"00700":1.97}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.44.1","shortVersion":"4.44.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2639606596","isCrawlerRequest":true}