现在整个AI投资逻辑都错了！微软CEO首次承认：成排的H100正在积灰，插不上电

市场资讯11-03

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！（来源：网易科技）真正的瓶颈早已不是芯片，而是电力Satya刚刚透露：整个AI行业的投资逻辑都错了，市场根本没有对相关公司进行重新定价微软有机架成排的H100正在积灰，原因不是不想用，而是不能用——根本没有相应的电力基础设施来支持它们运行这意味着，所有那些根据芯片采购量和GPU数量为这些公司定价的分析师模型，从根本上就是错的。...

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KEINS
11-04
KEINS
微软CEO这个烂水平，大家赶紧卖出，我已经清仓了。

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瓶颈早已转移，而市场仍在像2023年那样交易重写资本支出方程这完全改写了资本支出的等式当微软斥资500亿美元购买英伟达GPU时，华尔街将其誉为AI投资，并推高了两家公司的股价。但如果其中一半的芯片在货架上闲置18个月，那么投资回报的时间线就崩溃了GPU在黑暗的机架中每多待一个季度，就意味着这个季度它不仅没有产生任何收入，同时相对于英伟达下一代产品的性能还在贬值。你等于在用零回报抵消数据中心建设成本和芯片折旧费真正的赢家在这场竞赛中，真正能获胜的，是那些在3-4年前就锁定了电力采购协议的玩家，那时根本没人考虑到AI推理集群需要上百兆瓦的电力那些及早与电力公司建立合作关系，或自建发电能力的超大规模云厂商，拥有了在任何合理时间范围内都无法被复制的结构性优势你可以在6个月内订购10万块GPU并收到货。但你无法在6个月内订购500兆瓦的电力并让它上线。这需要数年的审批、建设、并网和监管批准。被忽视的第二重打击：加速的折旧Satya关于不想过度购买某一代GPU的观点，是所有人忽视的第二个关键洞见英伟达的发布周期已经从两年多压缩到几乎一年一次。这意味着今天购买的GPU，可能只有12到18个月的性能领先期，然后就会过时。如果你不能立即部署它，你买到的就是一块在产生任何收益之前，就已经在相对未来产品贬值的资产。在摩尔定律还比较慢的时代，采购和部署之间的时间差成本并没有这么高昂刷新周期的压缩还意味着，谁能最快部署，谁就能不成比例地捕获巨大价值。如果你能在6个月内为新容量通电，而对手需要24个月，你就多出了18个月的时间来享受推理服务的定价，直到竞争对手赶上部署速度现在直接成为芯片采购投资回报率的倍增器。这意味着拥有自有电力和地产的垂直整合玩家，能够比任何依赖第三方数据中心或公共电网连接的对手行动得更快护城河已经改变这彻底改变了竞争护城河的结构。旧的护城河是模型质量和算法改进。新的护城河是物理基础设施和能源准入你可以在6个月内训练出一个更好的模型，但你无法在6个月内建成一个通电的数据中心。这种约束会持续数年，并将在赢家和输家之间创造出持久的差距","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":496290678624400,"gmtCreate":1762187320223,"gmtModify":1762187322617,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3440540550401156","idStr":"3440540550401156"},"htmlText":"微软CEO这个烂水平，大家赶紧卖出，我已经清仓了。","listText":"微软CEO这个烂水平，大家赶紧卖出，我已经清仓了。","text":"微软CEO这个烂水平，大家赶紧卖出，我已经清仓了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/496290678624400","repostId":2580210551,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2580210551","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1762178700,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2580210551?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-03 22:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"现在整个AI投资逻辑都错了！微软CEO首次承认：成排的H100正在积灰，插不上电","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2580210551","media":"市场资讯","summary":"真正的瓶颈早已不是芯片，而是电力Satya刚刚透露：整个AI行业的投资逻辑都错了，市场根本没有对相关公司进行重新定价微软有机架成排的H100正在积灰，原因不是不想用，而是不能用——根本没有相应的电力基础设施来支持它们运行这意味着，所有那些根据芯片采购量和GPU数量为这些公司定价的分析师模型，从根本上就是错的。","content":"<html><body><article><p>炒股就看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603586\">金麒麟</a>分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！</p><p>（来源：网易科技）</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251103234501073d15291k7k3xfufr\"/><p>真正的瓶颈早已不是芯片，而是电力</p><p>Satya刚刚透露：整个AI行业的投资逻辑都错了，市场根本没有对相关公司进行重新定价</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>有机架成排的H100正在积灰，原因不是不想用，而是不能用——根本没有相应的电力基础设施来支持它们运行</p><p>这意味着，所有那些根据芯片采购量和GPU数量为这些公司定价的分析师模型，从根本上就是错的。你正在为错误的约束条件估值。 瓶颈早已转移，而市场仍在像2023年那样交易</p><p>重写资本支出方程</p><p>这完全改写了资本支出的等式</p><p>当微软斥资500亿美元购买<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>GPU时，华尔街将其誉为AI投资，并推高了两家公司的股价。但如果其中一半的芯片在货架上闲置18个月，那么投资回报的时间线就崩溃了</p><p>GPU在黑暗的机架中每多待一个季度，就意味着这个季度它不仅没有产生任何收入，同时相对于英伟达下一代产品的性能还在贬值。你等于在用零回报抵消数据中心建设成本和芯片折旧费</p><p>真正的赢家</p><p>在这场竞赛中，真正能获胜的，是那些在3-4年前就锁定了电力采购协议的玩家，那时根本没人考虑到AI推理集群需要上百兆瓦的电力</p><p>那些及早与电力公司建立合作关系，或自建发电能力的超大规模云厂商，拥有了在任何合理时间范围内都无法被复制的结构性优势</p><p>你可以在6个月内订购10万块GPU并收到货。但你无法在6个月内订购500兆瓦的电力并让它上线。这需要数年的审批、建设、并网和监管批准。</p><p>被忽视的第二重打击：加速的折旧</p><p>Satya关于不想过度购买某一代GPU的观点，是所有人忽视的第二个关键洞见</p><p>英伟达的发布周期已经从两年多压缩到几乎一年一次。这意味着今天购买的GPU，可能只有12到18个月的性能领先期，然后就会过时。</p><p>如果你不能立即部署它，你买到的就是一块在产生任何收益之前，就已经在相对未来产品贬值的<span>资产</span>。在摩尔定律还比较慢的时代，采购和部署之间的时间差成本并没有这么高昂</p><p>刷新周期的压缩还意味着，谁能最快部署，谁就能不成比例地捕获巨大价值。</p><p>如果你能在6个月内为新容量通电，而对手需要24个月，你就多出了18个月的时间来享受推理服务的定价，直到竞争对手赶上</p><p>部署速度现在直接成为芯片采购投资回报率的倍增器。这意味着拥有自有电力和地产的垂直整合玩家，能够比任何依赖第三方数据中心或公共电网连接的对手行动得更快</p><p>护城河已经改变</p><p>这彻底改变了竞争护城河的结构。旧的护城河是模型质量和算法改进。新的护城河是物理基础设施和能源准入</p><p>你可以在6个月内训练出一个更好的模型，但你无法在6个月内<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01630\">建成</a>一个通电的数据中心。这种约束会持续数年，并将在赢家和输家之间创造出持久的差距</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>现在整个AI投资逻辑都错了！微软CEO首次承认：成排的H100正在积灰，插不上电</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n现在整个AI投资逻辑都错了！微软CEO首次承认：成排的H100正在积灰，插不上电\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-03 22:05 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025110323450697514d08&s=b><strong>市场资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！（来源：网易科技）真正的瓶颈早已不是芯片，而是电力Satya刚刚透露：整个AI行业的投资逻辑都错了，市场根本没有对相关公司进行重新定价微软有机架成排的H100正在积灰，原因不是不想用，而是不能用——根本没有相应的电力基础设施来支持它们运行这意味着，所有那些根据芯片采购量和GPU数量为这些公司定价的分析师模型，从根本上就是错的。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025110323450697514d08&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","IE000W1ABFV2.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"R\" (USD) 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INC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025110323450697514d08&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2580210551","content_text":"炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！（来源：网易科技）真正的瓶颈早已不是芯片，而是电力Satya刚刚透露：整个AI行业的投资逻辑都错了，市场根本没有对相关公司进行重新定价微软有机架成排的H100正在积灰，原因不是不想用，而是不能用——根本没有相应的电力基础设施来支持它们运行这意味着，所有那些根据芯片采购量和GPU数量为这些公司定价的分析师模型，从根本上就是错的。你正在为错误的约束条件估值。 瓶颈早已转移，而市场仍在像2023年那样交易重写资本支出方程这完全改写了资本支出的等式当微软斥资500亿美元购买英伟达GPU时，华尔街将其誉为AI投资，并推高了两家公司的股价。但如果其中一半的芯片在货架上闲置18个月，那么投资回报的时间线就崩溃了GPU在黑暗的机架中每多待一个季度，就意味着这个季度它不仅没有产生任何收入，同时相对于英伟达下一代产品的性能还在贬值。你等于在用零回报抵消数据中心建设成本和芯片折旧费真正的赢家在这场竞赛中，真正能获胜的，是那些在3-4年前就锁定了电力采购协议的玩家，那时根本没人考虑到AI推理集群需要上百兆瓦的电力那些及早与电力公司建立合作关系，或自建发电能力的超大规模云厂商，拥有了在任何合理时间范围内都无法被复制的结构性优势你可以在6个月内订购10万块GPU并收到货。但你无法在6个月内订购500兆瓦的电力并让它上线。这需要数年的审批、建设、并网和监管批准。被忽视的第二重打击：加速的折旧Satya关于不想过度购买某一代GPU的观点，是所有人忽视的第二个关键洞见英伟达的发布周期已经从两年多压缩到几乎一年一次。这意味着今天购买的GPU，可能只有12到18个月的性能领先期，然后就会过时。如果你不能立即部署它，你买到的就是一块在产生任何收益之前，就已经在相对未来产品贬值的资产。在摩尔定律还比较慢的时代，采购和部署之间的时间差成本并没有这么高昂刷新周期的压缩还意味着，谁能最快部署，谁就能不成比例地捕获巨大价值。如果你能在6个月内为新容量通电，而对手需要24个月，你就多出了18个月的时间来享受推理服务的定价，直到竞争对手赶上部署速度现在直接成为芯片采购投资回报率的倍增器。这意味着拥有自有电力和地产的垂直整合玩家，能够比任何依赖第三方数据中心或公共电网连接的对手行动得更快护城河已经改变这彻底改变了竞争护城河的结构。旧的护城河是模型质量和算法改进。新的护城河是物理基础设施和能源准入你可以在6个月内训练出一个更好的模型，但你无法在6个月内建成一个通电的数据中心。这种约束会持续数年，并将在赢家和输家之间创造出持久的差距","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":1.5}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":3,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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