浙商证券：美联储重启降息国内降息渐行渐近

智通财经2025-09-21

浙商证券发布研报称，美联储重启降息后，国内央行“跟进”降息的概率有所上升，节奏上10月底及以后落地概率更高。经历连续三个月调整以后，当前债市行情已初具企稳迹象，待进入四季度债市利率或开启新一轮流畅下行，建议投资者做好防守反击，在10年国债1.8%附近择机进场。浙商证券主要观点如下：外部掣肘减弱：“腾挪空间“打开。2025年7月中旬以来，美国就业数据走弱，美联储降息预期逐步强化，因而中美利差倒挂幅度...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

铁木真
2025-09-22
铁木真
加息吧，还富于民！
forit
2025-09-21
forit
还有空间吗？

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2568212982?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82005fdd5a20870413111b3adc1a547","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-09-21 15:07","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2568212982","market":"fut","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"浙商证券：美联储重启降息 国内降息渐行渐近","media":"智通财经","content":"<div>\n<p>浙商证券发布研报称，美联储重启降息后，国内央行“跟进”降息的概率有所上升，节奏上10月底及以后落地概率更高。经历连续三个月调整以后，当前债市行情已初具企稳迹象，待进入四季度债市利率或开启新一轮流畅下行，建议投资者做好防守反击，在10年国债1.8%附近择机进场。浙商证券主要观点如下：外部掣肘减弱：“腾挪空间“打开。2025年7月中旬以来，美国就业数据走弱，美联储降息预期逐步强化，因而中美利差倒挂幅度...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1347594.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>浙商证券：美联储重启降息 国内降息渐行渐近</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n浙商证券：美联储重启降息 国内降息渐行渐近\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-21 15:07 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1347594.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>浙商证券发布研报称，美联储重启降息后，国内央行“跟进”降息的概率有所上升，节奏上10月底及以后落地概率更高。经历连续三个月调整以后，当前债市行情已初具企稳迹象，待进入四季度债市利率或开启新一轮流畅下行，建议投资者做好防守反击，在10年国债1.8%附近择机进场。浙商证券主要观点如下：外部掣肘减弱：“腾挪空间“打开。2025年7月中旬以来，美国就业数据走弱，美联储降息预期逐步强化，因而中美利差倒挂幅度...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1347594.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SSO","symbol_name":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1347594.html","article_id":"2568212982","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82005fdd5a20870413111b3adc1a547"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2568212982","pubTimestamp":1758438420,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_zhitongcaijing","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"智通财经APP获悉，浙商证券发布研报称，美联储重启降息后，国内央行“跟进”降息的概率有所上升，节奏上10月底及以后落地概率更高。经历连续三个月调整以后，当前债市行情已初具企稳迹象，待进入四季度债市利率或开启新一轮流畅下行，建议投资者做好防守反击，在10年国债1.8%附近择机进场。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"601878":"浙商证券","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK0276":"资本市场","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares"},"translate_title":"Zheshang Securities: The Federal Reserve restarts interest rate cuts and domestic interest rate cuts are gradually approaching","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a8d1599fd309e00872ff3911da3b892","symbols_score_info":{"601878":1.5,".SPX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPY":1.5,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6},"content_text":"浙商证券发布研报称，美联储重启降息后，国内央行“跟进”降息的概率有所上升，节奏上10月底及以后落地概率更高。经历连续三个月调整以后，当前债市行情已初具企稳迹象，待进入四季度债市利率或开启新一轮流畅下行，建议投资者做好防守反击，在10年国债1.8%附近择机进场。浙商证券主要观点如下：外部掣肘减弱：“腾挪空间“打开。2025年7月中旬以来，美国就业数据走弱，美联储降息预期逐步强化，因而中美利差倒挂幅度收窄，资金外流风险下降，为央行货币宽松创造了一定窗口。美元走弱带动人民币被动升值，结汇需求回升，境内流动性环境边际改善，降息空间打开。汇率压力减轻，但仍需防止“人民币快速升值→出口竞争力下降”的副作用，因此央行降息存在一定必要性。内部仍有约束：银行息差低位+实际利率上行。当前降息仍然面临“银行净息差低位+实际利率上行”的双重约束。商业银行净息差已降至历史低位，若再进一步单边下调贷款基准利率，银行盈利与信贷投放意愿可能进一步受挫，故央行对全面降息或更为谨慎。通胀预期偏弱，大幅降息或导致实际利率走高继而一定程度上抑制消费及投资。国内降息渐行渐近：10月底后概率更高。美联储重启降息后，国内央行“跟进”降息的概率有所上升，但节奏、幅度和方式都将“以我为主”，节奏上10月底及以后落地或概率更高。经历连续三个月调整以后，当前债市行情已初具企稳迹象，待进入四季度债市利率或开启新一轮流畅下行，建议投资者做好防守反击，在10年国债1.8%附近择机进场。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"economic","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":481222614499576,"gmtCreate":1758509751937,"gmtModify":1758509754187,"author":{"id":"3432271782041032","authorId":"3432271782041032","name":"铁木真","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cf0df21ca95edb3fa281792940a6729","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3432271782041032","authorIdStr":"3432271782041032"},"htmlText":"加息吧，还富于民！","listText":"加息吧，还富于民！","text":"加息吧，还富于民！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/481222614499576","repostId":2568212982,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2568212982","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1758438420,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2568212982?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-21 15:07","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"浙商证券：美联储重启降息 国内降息渐行渐近","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2568212982","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，浙商证券发布研报称，美联储重启降息后，国内央行“跟进”降息的概率有所上升，节奏上10月底及以后落地概率更高。经历连续三个月调整以后，当前债市行情已初具企稳迹象，待进入四季度债市利率或开启新一轮流畅下行，建议投资者做好防守反击，在10年国债1.8%附近择机进场。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">浙商证券</a>发布研报称，美联储重启降息后，国内央行“跟进”降息的概率有所上升，节奏上10月底及以后落地概率更高。经历连续三个月调整以后，当前债市行情已初具企稳迹象，待进入四季度债市利率或开启新一轮流畅下行，建议投资者做好防守反击，在10年国债1.8%附近择机进场。</p><p><strong>浙商证券主要观点如下：</strong></p><p><strong>外部掣肘减弱：“腾挪空间“打开。</strong></p><p>2025年7月中旬以来，美国就业数据走弱，美联储降息预期逐步强化，因而中美利差倒挂幅度收窄，资金外流风险下降，为央行货币宽松创造了一定窗口。美元走弱带动人民币被动升值，结汇需求回升，境内流动性环境边际改善，降息空间打开。汇率压力减轻，但仍需防止“人民币快速升值→出口竞争力下降”的副作用，因此央行降息存在一定必要性。</p><p><strong>内部仍有约束：银行息差低位+实际利率上行。</strong></p><p>当前降息仍然面临“银行净息差低位+实际利率上行”的双重约束。商业银行净息差已降至历史低位，若再进一步单边下调贷款基准利率，银行盈利与信贷投放意愿可能进一步受挫，故央行对全面降息或更为谨慎。通胀预期偏弱，大幅降息或导致实际利率走高继而一定程度上抑制消费及投资。</p><p><strong>国内降息渐行渐近：10月底后概率更高。</strong></p><p>美联储重启降息后，国内央行“跟进”降息的概率有所上升，但节奏、幅度和方式都将“以我为主”，节奏上10月底及以后落地或概率更高。经历连续三个月调整以后，当前债市行情已初具企稳迹象，待进入四季度债市利率或开启新一轮流畅下行，建议投资者做好防守反击，在10年国债1.8%附近择机进场。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>浙商证券：美联储重启降息 国内降息渐行渐近</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n浙商证券：美联储重启降息 国内降息渐行渐近\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-21 15:07 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1347594.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>浙商证券发布研报称，美联储重启降息后，国内央行“跟进”降息的概率有所上升，节奏上10月底及以后落地概率更高。经历连续三个月调整以后，当前债市行情已初具企稳迹象，待进入四季度债市利率或开启新一轮流畅下行，建议投资者做好防守反击，在10年国债1.8%附近择机进场。浙商证券主要观点如下：外部掣肘减弱：“腾挪空间“打开。2025年7月中旬以来，美国就业数据走弱，美联储降息预期逐步强化，因而中美利差倒挂幅度...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1347594.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82005fdd5a20870413111b3adc1a547","relate_stocks":{"601878":"浙商证券","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK0276":"资本市场","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1347594.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2568212982","content_text":"浙商证券发布研报称，美联储重启降息后，国内央行“跟进”降息的概率有所上升，节奏上10月底及以后落地概率更高。经历连续三个月调整以后，当前债市行情已初具企稳迹象，待进入四季度债市利率或开启新一轮流畅下行，建议投资者做好防守反击，在10年国债1.8%附近择机进场。浙商证券主要观点如下：外部掣肘减弱：“腾挪空间“打开。2025年7月中旬以来，美国就业数据走弱，美联储降息预期逐步强化，因而中美利差倒挂幅度收窄，资金外流风险下降，为央行货币宽松创造了一定窗口。美元走弱带动人民币被动升值，结汇需求回升，境内流动性环境边际改善，降息空间打开。汇率压力减轻，但仍需防止“人民币快速升值→出口竞争力下降”的副作用，因此央行降息存在一定必要性。内部仍有约束：银行息差低位+实际利率上行。当前降息仍然面临“银行净息差低位+实际利率上行”的双重约束。商业银行净息差已降至历史低位，若再进一步单边下调贷款基准利率，银行盈利与信贷投放意愿可能进一步受挫，故央行对全面降息或更为谨慎。通胀预期偏弱，大幅降息或导致实际利率走高继而一定程度上抑制消费及投资。国内降息渐行渐近：10月底后概率更高。美联储重启降息后，国内央行“跟进”降息的概率有所上升，但节奏、幅度和方式都将“以我为主”，节奏上10月底及以后落地或概率更高。经历连续三个月调整以后，当前债市行情已初具企稳迹象，待进入四季度债市利率或开启新一轮流畅下行，建议投资者做好防守反击，在10年国债1.8%附近择机进场。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"601878":1.5,".SPX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPY":1.5,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":481017115001632,"gmtCreate":1758459506417,"gmtModify":1758459508812,"author":{"id":"4129808622149470","authorId":"4129808622149470","name":"forit","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4129808622149470","authorIdStr":"4129808622149470"},"htmlText":"还有空间吗？","listText":"还有空间吗？","text":"还有空间吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/481017115001632","repostId":2568212982,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2568212982","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1758438420,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2568212982?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-21 15:07","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"浙商证券：美联储重启降息 国内降息渐行渐近","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2568212982","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，浙商证券发布研报称，美联储重启降息后，国内央行“跟进”降息的概率有所上升，节奏上10月底及以后落地概率更高。经历连续三个月调整以后，当前债市行情已初具企稳迹象，待进入四季度债市利率或开启新一轮流畅下行，建议投资者做好防守反击，在10年国债1.8%附近择机进场。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">浙商证券</a>发布研报称，美联储重启降息后，国内央行“跟进”降息的概率有所上升，节奏上10月底及以后落地概率更高。经历连续三个月调整以后，当前债市行情已初具企稳迹象，待进入四季度债市利率或开启新一轮流畅下行，建议投资者做好防守反击，在10年国债1.8%附近择机进场。</p><p><strong>浙商证券主要观点如下：</strong></p><p><strong>外部掣肘减弱：“腾挪空间“打开。</strong></p><p>2025年7月中旬以来，美国就业数据走弱，美联储降息预期逐步强化，因而中美利差倒挂幅度收窄，资金外流风险下降，为央行货币宽松创造了一定窗口。美元走弱带动人民币被动升值，结汇需求回升，境内流动性环境边际改善，降息空间打开。汇率压力减轻，但仍需防止“人民币快速升值→出口竞争力下降”的副作用，因此央行降息存在一定必要性。</p><p><strong>内部仍有约束：银行息差低位+实际利率上行。</strong></p><p>当前降息仍然面临“银行净息差低位+实际利率上行”的双重约束。商业银行净息差已降至历史低位，若再进一步单边下调贷款基准利率，银行盈利与信贷投放意愿可能进一步受挫，故央行对全面降息或更为谨慎。通胀预期偏弱，大幅降息或导致实际利率走高继而一定程度上抑制消费及投资。</p><p><strong>国内降息渐行渐近：10月底后概率更高。</strong></p><p>美联储重启降息后，国内央行“跟进”降息的概率有所上升，但节奏、幅度和方式都将“以我为主”，节奏上10月底及以后落地或概率更高。经历连续三个月调整以后，当前债市行情已初具企稳迹象，待进入四季度债市利率或开启新一轮流畅下行，建议投资者做好防守反击，在10年国债1.8%附近择机进场。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>浙商证券：美联储重启降息 国内降息渐行渐近</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n浙商证券：美联储重启降息 国内降息渐行渐近\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-21 15:07 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1347594.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>浙商证券发布研报称，美联储重启降息后，国内央行“跟进”降息的概率有所上升，节奏上10月底及以后落地概率更高。经历连续三个月调整以后，当前债市行情已初具企稳迹象，待进入四季度债市利率或开启新一轮流畅下行，建议投资者做好防守反击，在10年国债1.8%附近择机进场。浙商证券主要观点如下：外部掣肘减弱：“腾挪空间“打开。2025年7月中旬以来，美国就业数据走弱，美联储降息预期逐步强化，因而中美利差倒挂幅度...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1347594.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82005fdd5a20870413111b3adc1a547","relate_stocks":{"601878":"浙商证券","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK0276":"资本市场","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1347594.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2568212982","content_text":"浙商证券发布研报称，美联储重启降息后，国内央行“跟进”降息的概率有所上升，节奏上10月底及以后落地概率更高。经历连续三个月调整以后，当前债市行情已初具企稳迹象，待进入四季度债市利率或开启新一轮流畅下行，建议投资者做好防守反击，在10年国债1.8%附近择机进场。浙商证券主要观点如下：外部掣肘减弱：“腾挪空间“打开。2025年7月中旬以来，美国就业数据走弱，美联储降息预期逐步强化，因而中美利差倒挂幅度收窄，资金外流风险下降，为央行货币宽松创造了一定窗口。美元走弱带动人民币被动升值，结汇需求回升，境内流动性环境边际改善，降息空间打开。汇率压力减轻，但仍需防止“人民币快速升值→出口竞争力下降”的副作用，因此央行降息存在一定必要性。内部仍有约束：银行息差低位+实际利率上行。当前降息仍然面临“银行净息差低位+实际利率上行”的双重约束。商业银行净息差已降至历史低位，若再进一步单边下调贷款基准利率，银行盈利与信贷投放意愿可能进一步受挫，故央行对全面降息或更为谨慎。通胀预期偏弱，大幅降息或导致实际利率走高继而一定程度上抑制消费及投资。国内降息渐行渐近：10月底后概率更高。美联储重启降息后，国内央行“跟进”降息的概率有所上升，但节奏、幅度和方式都将“以我为主”，节奏上10月底及以后落地或概率更高。经历连续三个月调整以后，当前债市行情已初具企稳迹象，待进入四季度债市利率或开启新一轮流畅下行，建议投资者做好防守反击，在10年国债1.8%附近择机进场。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"601878":1.5,".SPX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPY":1.5,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.0","shortVersion":"4.42.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2568212982","isCrawlerRequest":true}

浙商证券：美联储重启降息 国内降息渐行渐近

精彩评论

浙商证券：美联储重启降息国内降息渐行渐近