黄金“技术性回调”的理由：三大指标都指向“调整”，甚至“幅度不小”？

华尔街见闻2025-04-26

经济放缓指标亮起红灯，资金流向异常反映市场狂热后急剧降温，技术面指标显示金价与长期均线偏离度过大。近期，黄金价格突破3500美元创下历史新高，吸引全球投资者的目光。然而，野村证券最新研究显示，三大关键指标同时发出警报信号，预示黄金市场可能即将迎来一波"技术性回调"，且调整幅度或"相当可观"。经济放缓指标：美联储资本支出指标亮起红灯野村经济学家团队追踪的"美联储综合预期资本开支指数"(...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

Yangsirisme
2025-04-27
Yangsirisme
这次不是准了吗？第一波调整跌破800在780左右准备发起第二波公斤到750-760
007邦德
2025-04-27
007邦德
没有一次准的
人九文日天
2025-04-27
人九文日天
老美要打压金价维持强美元罢了，最近的贸易战缓和的新闻全是老美放的消息，但一条没确认，全是单口相声，目的就是通过新闻，结合市场打压金价[汗颜] 但这次最终看全世界央行的态度,这次不是只看他的态度了

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2530175461?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be30a3c11bd91e9d1f864c6a098fab1","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-04-26 14:14","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2530175461","market":"fut","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"黄金“技术性回调”的理由：三大指标都指向“调整”，甚至“幅度不小”？","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>经济放缓指标亮起红灯，资金流向异常反映市场狂热后急剧降温，技术面指标显示金价与长期均线偏离度过大。近期，黄金价格突破3500美元创下历史新高，吸引全球投资者的目光。然而，野村证券最新研究显示，三大关键指标同时发出警报信号，预示黄金市场可能即将迎来一波\"技术性回调\"，且调整幅度或\"相当可观\"。经济放缓指标：美联储资本支出指标亮起红灯野村经济学家团队追踪的\"美联储综合预期资本开支指数\"(...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3745983\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>黄金“技术性回调”的理由：三大指标都指向“调整”，甚至“幅度不小”？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n黄金“技术性回调”的理由：三大指标都指向“调整”，甚至“幅度不小”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-04-26 14:14 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3745983><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>经济放缓指标亮起红灯，资金流向异常反映市场狂热后急剧降温，技术面指标显示金价与长期均线偏离度过大。近期，黄金价格突破3500美元创下历史新高，吸引全球投资者的目光。然而，野村证券最新研究显示，三大关键指标同时发出警报信号，预示黄金市场可能即将迎来一波\"技术性回调\"，且调整幅度或\"相当可观\"。经济放缓指标：美联储资本支出指标亮起红灯野村经济学家团队追踪的\"美联储综合预期资本开支指数\"(...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3745983\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":null,"symbol_name":null,"start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3745983","article_id":"2530175461","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be30a3c11bd91e9d1f864c6a098fab1"],"rights":{"source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3745983","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2530175461","pubTimestamp":1745648098,"columns":[{"name":"黄金","id":5,"label_key":null}],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"经济放缓指标亮起红灯，资金流向异常反映市场狂热后急剧降温，技术面指标显示金价与长期均线偏离度过大。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{},"translate_title":"Reasons for the \"technical correction\" of gold: All three major indicators point to \"adjustment\", or even \"not small\"?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17eb9bf7f79bc2b821d5e105415a8d00","symbols_score_info":{"GCmain":1.1,"XAUUSD.FOREX":1.1},"content_text":"经济放缓指标亮起红灯，资金流向异常反映市场狂热后急剧降温，技术面指标显示金价与长期均线偏离度过大。近期，黄金价格突破3500美元创下历史新高，吸引全球投资者的目光。然而，野村证券最新研究显示，三大关键指标同时发出警报信号，预示黄金市场可能即将迎来一波\"技术性回调\"，且调整幅度或\"相当可观\"。经济放缓指标：美联储资本支出指标亮起红灯野村经济学家团队追踪的\"美联储综合预期资本开支指数\"(Composite Regional Fed Planned Capex Index)最近跌破-4。该指数汇总了各区域联储调查数据，按经济贡献度加权平均计算。直观地看，当该指数大幅跌入负值区间时，\"实际核心资本货物订单\"通常会在随后出现断崖式下滑，反映关税政策已对实体经济产生实质拖累。野村在报告中写道，这一指标的预警能力极强——在过去6次触发中，有5次成功预示了经济衰退。同时，罗素指数（代表经济敏感型/周期性行业）在未来3个月内通常呈现极度负面走势，而10年期国债收益率在随后2周至1个月内先上升，之后转为下行。更直接相关的是，当该指数跌破-4时，黄金在随后2个月的表现往往不佳。野村认为，这一指数预计4月将进一步降至-6水平，强化了警示信号的可信度。资金流向异常：市场狂热后急剧降温第二个警示信号来自资金流向。野村观察到当前市场出现\"黄金狂热过度\"的历史性异常值：数据显示，GLD在两周内经历了超过历史95%水平的资金流入，随后又出现了同样超过历史95%水平的单日资金流出。野村分析认为，这反映\"晚入场投资者/弱势持有者\"开始平仓，可能引发更大规模的抛售潮。野村的数据显示，这种\"大进大出\"模式在历史上共出现过9次，前8次几乎都精准预示黄金将迎来回调，且最差表现通常集中在接下来的2个月内。这里，我们补充一个具体数据，今天早上的快讯也提到，本周早些时候，投资者从SPDR黄金ETF撤出12.7亿美元，创2011年以来最大单日资金流出量，恰逢金价触及3500美元上方的历史高点。值得注意的是，2011年，类似的资金流出现象恰逢黄金上一次超级周期峰值，随后黄金进入了长期盘整期，直到2020年才得以突破。这一历史情况为当前市场提供了一定参考意义。技术面指标：金价与长期均线偏离度过大第三个警示基于技术面分析。上周末，黄金交易价格已高出200日移动平均线25%以上，处于野村描述为\"相当荒谬\"(pretty absurd)的过热水平。这种与长期趋势线的过度偏离，历史上往往意味着市场需要修正。野村的历史数据分析显示，每当金价与200日均线产生如此大的偏离时，金价在接下来2个月内往往出现明显回调。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":428786491994680,"gmtCreate":1745714813598,"gmtModify":1745714815572,"author":{"id":"3560818482432945","authorId":"3560818482432945","name":"Yangsirisme","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2166d9cedc25a9fab231e41517a39d77","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3560818482432945","idStr":"3560818482432945"},"htmlText":"这次不是准了吗？第一波调整跌破800在780左右准备发起第二波公斤到750-760","listText":"这次不是准了吗？第一波调整跌破800在780左右准备发起第二波公斤到750-760","text":"这次不是准了吗？第一波调整跌破800在780左右准备发起第二波公斤到750-760","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/428786491994680","repostId":2530175461,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":428781107507784,"gmtCreate":1745713169092,"gmtModify":1745713171032,"author":{"id":"4096092219769990","authorId":"4096092219769990","name":"007邦德","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/981a278b33bda4404aa70ea6443d6a2d","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4096092219769990","idStr":"4096092219769990"},"htmlText":"没有一次准的","listText":"没有一次准的","text":"没有一次准的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/428781107507784","repostId":2530175461,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":428778164146360,"gmtCreate":1745713121491,"gmtModify":1745718590183,"author":{"id":"4093791634983680","authorId":"4093791634983680","name":"人九文日天","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be5594cb5f36b7251c4da41c8f7d7c8","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4093791634983680","idStr":"4093791634983680"},"htmlText":"老美要打压金价维持强美元罢了，最近的贸易战缓和的新闻全是老美放的消息，但一条没确认，全是单口相声，目的就是通过新闻，结合市场打压金价[汗颜]&nbsp; 但这次最终看全世界央行的态度,这次不是只看他的态度了","listText":"老美要打压金价维持强美元罢了，最近的贸易战缓和的新闻全是老美放的消息，但一条没确认，全是单口相声，目的就是通过新闻，结合市场打压金价[汗颜]&nbsp; 但这次最终看全世界央行的态度,这次不是只看他的态度了","text":"老美要打压金价维持强美元罢了，最近的贸易战缓和的新闻全是老美放的消息，但一条没确认，全是单口相声，目的就是通过新闻，结合市场打压金价[汗颜] 但这次最终看全世界央行的态度,这次不是只看他的态度了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/428778164146360","repostId":2530175461,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":11,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":3,"favoriteSize":13,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2530175461","isCrawlerRequest":true}