债务上限协议有望通关国会，对美国股市和经济可能不是好消息

智通财经2023-06-02

智通财经APP获悉，美国国会似乎将投票通过债务上限协议，该协议将使美国债务违约问题在未来两年内不再出现。但这仍可能带来麻烦。美国财政部的下一步行动将是补充其在美联储的财政部一般账户(TGA)。根据投资研究公司TS Lombard的说法，美国财政部将出售短期国债，这将导致“严重的流动性紧缩”。TS Lombard经济学家Steven Blitz表示：“TGA低于500亿美元，美国财政部肯定会希望回到...

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蓝白红黑的间条衫
2023-06-02
蓝白红黑的间条衫
你们YY自嗨几十年了……👽👽👽

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Blitz表示，“原因是美国财政部出售债券是为了筹集现金，不是花掉这些钱，而是存入美联储。此外，美联储实际上并没有通过其QT为增加的借款提供资金。”“在过去的5个月里，TGA实际减少了3600亿美元，这意味着在此期间有3600亿美元被花掉了，既没有被征税，也没有被用于借贷——这相当于5个月名义GDP的3.3%。这是经济增长看起来‘有弹性’的一个很好的理由。”“展望未来，假设美国财政部在未来三个月内筹集6500亿美元存入美联储，这将相当于三个月名义GDP的9.8%，”Blitz表示。在股票方面，TS Lombard 根据2012年以来的银行准备金、隔夜回购逆操作、TGA和财政部融资需求的每周数据计算了流动性指数。Blitz表示，流动性指数与标普500指数的同比变化一致。Blitz表示，流动性“自2022年底以来有所改善，股市也做出了同样的反应(尽管表现偏向于几只科技股)”。他预计流动性将迅速回落至5个月前的水平以下，股市也会出现逆转。“这种关系并不是1:1，所以股市下跌可能更糟，也可能没那么糟。”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":182847931793560,"gmtCreate":1685670681182,"gmtModify":1685670682801,"author":{"id":"3546057439648684","authorId":"3546057439648684","name":"蓝白红黑的间条衫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64ded5db61c69b7abc937bc62d16afdd","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"你们YY自嗨几十年了……👽👽👽","listText":"你们YY自嗨几十年了……👽👽👽","text":"你们YY自嗨几十年了……👽👽👽","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182847931793560","repostId":2340209208,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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