一个关键问题：乌克兰局势会影响美联储加息进程吗？

华尔街见闻2022-02-22

过去一个月，华尔街把关注点集中在“加息多少次”，瑞银预测美联储在2022年将连续6次加息，高盛则认为是7次，摩根大通更是作出连续9次加息的惊人预测。然而，加息周期还未开启，华尔街的共识将发生戏剧性的转变，开始把注意力放到“2023年以后降息多少次”。在预测9次加息的同时，另一位摩根大通分析师 Nick Panigirtzoglou 注意到了一个极为罕见的“危机信号”，远期OIS曲线已开始显示反转...

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龙腾虎乐
2022-02-22
龙腾虎乐
还顾得上加息呢[捂脸] [捂脸]

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注意到了一个极为罕见的“危机信号”，远期OIS曲线已开始显示反转迹象，远期利率市场已经将重点放在短暂紧缩周期之后的降息上。加息持续不了太久？乌克兰冲突或促使美联储更快转鸽随着乌克兰紧张局势升级，原油价格飙升，并有可能增长到足以迅速摧毁全球经济复苏的水平。类似于2008年夏天，彼时150美元的油价加上雷曼兄弟的破产引发了全球金融危机。一些分析师表示，接下来的不是指数级利率上升螺旋，而是回到刺激性货币政策上来。周一，SMBC Nikko Securities首席货币和债券策略师Makoto Noji在一份报告中指出，美国利率市场将重新定价，美联储2%或更低的最终利率将足以控制通胀，理由是股市的深度调整将导致美国家庭储蓄率上升，从而抑制消费，达到为通胀降温的效果。Noji进一步分析指出，尽管央行不太可能避免在3月加息，也不太可能在3月之后重新考虑加息路径，除非在未来4周出现一些意料之外的市场崩盘。SMBC报告数据显示，长期美债收益率可能会在夏季适度下降，但实际上已经大幅下降，由于俄乌冲突加剧，美国10年期国债收益率从上周的2.1%一度下降至1.85%。Noji并不是唯一一个认为乌克兰事件将影响美联储加息的分析师，Panigirtzoglou在上周一指出，乌克兰冲突的风险很高，或对全球股市产生影响，并可能促使各大央行做出鸽派的重新评估。市场减少加息的押注与此同时，随着乌克兰的紧张局势升级，避险情绪升温，市场已经做出反应，掉期交易商减少了对美联储未来加息的押注。隔夜指数掉期显示，3月份加息50个基点的可能性降低为19%，而一周前为56%。考虑到地缘政治风险以及美联储官员最近淡化“加息50个”基点的可能性，市场一直在减少押注。隔夜指数掉期表示，美联储将在今年年底前将利率提高近150个基点，进行6次加息，远低于上周的175个基点。如果乌克兰冲突加剧和美国经济进一步放缓，那么2022年底市场定价的加息次数就会日益越少。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":638716351,"gmtCreate":1645525989719,"gmtModify":1645525989719,"author":{"id":"3482550532367433","authorId":"3482550532367433","name":"龙腾虎乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1530cc5cd548815469551d0b8c1c8ee8","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/622fc56f7e67b5729addb4e78a195511","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"还顾得上加息呢[捂脸]&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"还顾得上加息呢[捂脸]&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"还顾得上加息呢[捂脸] 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