和拜登唱反调，交易员称明年美国通胀会更高

华尔街见闻2021-12-24

虽然拜登将近两周前信誓旦旦地说美国的通胀率已经达到顶峰，但一些市场人士不这么乐观。准确预测了今年债市通胀预期上升的交易员——爱尔兰银行位于都柏林的通胀交易室负责人Semin Soher Power预测，美国的通胀率将因经济增长而进一步上升，明年上半年的通胀水平可能超出大多数分析师的预期。 Power预计，明年一季度美国CPI同比涨幅将超过7%，高于11月的增速6.8%，也高于彭博调查的分析师对...

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浴缸潜水员
2021-12-27
浴缸潜水员
发钱是饮鸩止渴，停不了的[捂脸]
蓝白红黑的间条衫
2021-12-24
蓝白红黑的间条衫
华尔街见闻这个美股闹餐黑子从未让人失望……👽👽👽

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3648082><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>虽然拜登将近两周前信誓旦旦地说美国的通胀率已经达到顶峰，但一些市场人士不这么乐观。\n准确预测了今年债市通胀预期上升的交易员——爱尔兰银行位于都柏林的通胀交易室负责人Semin Soher Power预测，美国的通胀率将因经济增长而进一步上升，明年上半年的通胀水平可能超出大多数分析师的预期。\nPower预计，明年一季度美国CPI同比涨幅将超过7%，高于11月的增速6.8%，也高于彭博调查的分析师对...</p>\n\n<a 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Power预测，美国的通胀率将因经济增长而进一步上升，明年上半年的通胀水平可能超出大多数分析师的预期。\nPower预计，明年一季度美国CPI同比涨幅将超过7%，高于11月的增速6.8%，也高于彭博调查的分析师对一季度增速预估中值6.3%。\nPower认为，通胀压力“现在更多是由经济增长带来的”，不单纯源于能源价格上涨或经济重启。市场和央行都在意识到这一点，因此，美联储不再用“暂时性”来描述通胀压力。Power说：\n\n “央行正在改变反应机制，相比同样由奥密克戎疫情造成的经济下行风险，正把通胀风险置于更重要的位置。”\n\n上上周公布的两项指标都凸显了美国通胀爆表的态势：PPI 11月同比增长9.6%，创有纪录以来最高增速；CPI 11月同比增长6.8%，创1982年来最高增速。\n华尔街见闻此前文章提到，就在11月CPI公布当天、本月10日，拜登发出了物价上涨已见顶的评论，称11月CPI一半的物价增长源于汽车和能源成本，在那之后，这两个领域的价格开始下滑，物价会比大家预期的更快放慢增长。\n而本周四稍早公布的美联储青睐通胀指标——PCE物价指数和核心PCE物价指数11月分别同比上涨5.7%和4.7%，不但都高于10月增速，而且均创1982年来最高增速。反映市场对未来五年通胀预期的美国5年期盈亏平衡通胀率、又称平准通胀率目前约为2.76%，高于美联储的长期通胀目标水平2%。\n\n上周三美联储会后宣布加快Taper，从明年1月起每月减少购债300亿美元，较今年11月和12月少购债水平提高一倍。会后决议声明删除了通胀源于“暂时”因素的说辞，改称“疫情相关的供需失衡和经济复工已经继续助长通胀处于高水平”。并在更新的经济展望中上调了今明后三年的PCE通胀预期。\n会后新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美国通胀偏高，迫使美联储Taper提速，联储的政策框架未预料到这样高的通胀。他还说，联储非常明显地上调了明年的通胀预期，美国通胀可能会变得更加顽固，这是一个实实在在的风险。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":698748150,"gmtCreate":1640564974853,"gmtModify":1640564974853,"author":{"id":"3532132223347993","authorId":"3532132223347993","name":"浴缸潜水员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d01d6abe944b89aee8c87b329e931f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"发钱是饮鸩止渴，停不了的[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"发钱是饮鸩止渴，停不了的[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"发钱是饮鸩止渴，停不了的[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698748150","repostId":2193206128,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":698820199,"gmtCreate":1640343721139,"gmtModify":1640343721139,"author":{"id":"3546057439648684","authorId":"3546057439648684","name":"蓝白红黑的间条衫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64ded5db61c69b7abc937bc62d16afdd","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"华尔街见闻这个美股闹餐黑子从未让人失望……👽👽👽","listText":"华尔街见闻这个美股闹餐黑子从未让人失望……👽👽👽","text":"华尔街见闻这个美股闹餐黑子从未让人失望……👽👽👽","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698820199","repostId":2193206128,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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