鲍威尔“无条件”遏制通胀的决心，能继续得到国会撑腰吗？

金十数据2022-06-22

在经济衰退的担忧加剧之际，鲍威尔将如何应对质疑？北京时间今晚21:30，美联储主席鲍威尔将在参议院银行委员会就半年度货币政策报告做证词陈述；明晚22:00，他还将在众议院金融服务委员会发表证词陈述。上周五，美联储向国会提交有关货币政策半年度报告。在这份长达70多页的报告中，有一个词格外引人注目。政策制定者在报告中写道，美联储恢复价格稳定的承诺是“无条件的”，这是他们在面对40年来最严重的通胀问题时...

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精彩评论

M_4166
2022-06-22
M_4166
当年无条件制造通胀得是谁？
勇敢小飞猪
2022-06-22
勇敢小飞猪
今晚又要大跌了，那明天又涨
Jamesong
2022-06-22
Jamesong
要发表重要讲话？
- M_4166:
  高度重视
壹碗
2022-06-22
壹碗
6
- CM1990:
  6
Woshidui
2022-06-22
Woshidui
稳定就是不会跌回来
123zj
2022-06-22
123zj
大爷的，你一发言，股市就不要脸的跌
- 123zj:
  确实 [笑哭]
- 进击华尔街:
  非也，他每次都是口嗨，引爆全场！言语的巨人，行动的矮子

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首席经济学家Lou Crandall在周一的一份报告中表示，美联储宣布其恢复物价稳定的承诺是“无条件的”，这可能会让鲍威尔面临一些尖锐的问题。Crandall说：“就其本质而言，美联储的双重使命意味着FOMC不能对两个目标中的任何一个做出真正无条件的承诺。上周五的货币政策报告解释称，价格稳定是‘维持强劲的劳动力市场所必需的’，从长远来看，这的确是事实。然而，美联储总是面临关于时机和必须接受的经济损失程度的难题。FOMC如何在这个周期内平衡这些因素尚不确定。”这就意味着，如果这次经济着陆比鲍威尔预测的更颠簸会发生什么？如果劳动力市场开始显著恶化，他和他的同事们将在多大程度上使通胀回到2%的目标？美联储主席鲍威尔今晚将直面这些质疑。第一场听证会的主题是经济状况，会议内容涉及美联储如何寻求实现稳定物价和充分就业的双重使命。这不仅对美联储而言是一个分水岭时刻，对白宫而言也是如此。上周，美联储实施了自1994年以来最大规模的加息，加大了抑制物价飙升的力度。在11月中期选举及以后的时间里，白宫正试图应对经济增长放缓和劳动力市场降温的预期。关于经济衰退的争论仍没有结果美国总统拜登本周对记者表示，“经济衰退并非是不可避免的”，这也呼应了美国财长珍妮特·耶伦和美国国家经济委员会（National Economic Council）主任布赖恩·迪斯（Brian Deese）的说法。拜登发表上述言论之前，他曾与美国前财政部长拉里·萨默斯（Larry Summers）进行了交谈。萨默斯指责拜登去年的经济刺激计划以及美联储的政策引发了通胀，并警告成功抗击通胀可能会引发经济阵痛。 萨默斯表示：“我们需要5年失业率高于5%，才能遏制通胀——换句话说，我们需要2年失业率达到7.5%，或5年失业率达到6%，或1年失业率达到10%。与美联储的设想预期相比，有些数据非常令人沮丧。”多数美联储官员目前也预计，基准政策利率将在明年年底达到约3.75%的峰值，核心通胀年率将从4月的4.9%放缓至2023年的2.7%。届时失业率将仅上升0.03个百分点，至3.9%，最终在2024年达到4.1%。经济学家警告称，这一数字高于3个月前预测的3.6%，但仍属保守估计。在经济学家看来，美联储对经济前景的乐观看法过于“一厢情愿”。尽管美联储上周发布的最新预测更明确地承认，为了降低通胀，经济放缓是必要的。但重要的是，他们没有暗示为经济降温的努力会导致经济衰退。相比之下，市场对美国经济衰退的担忧正在加剧，高盛将衰退预期从15%上调至30%，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）则认为，标普500指数必须再跌15-20%，才能完全反映出经济萎缩的规模。曾在美联储工作的哈佛大学经济学教授卡伦·迪南（Karen Dynan）表示：“美联储面临着一项艰巨的任务。过去一年的经验引发了这样一个问题——通胀如此大幅度的回落是否现实，以及其是否会带来更多的痛苦。”鲍威尔甚至承认，实现所谓软着陆的道路已变得更具挑战性，尤其是在外部力量加剧了通胀压力的情况下，比如俄乌冲突导致的大宗商品价格飙升，以及新冠疫情封锁导致的供应链长期中断。“越来越清楚的是，许多我们无法控制的因素将在决定这是否可能的过程中发挥非常重要的作用”，他在上周的一次新闻发布会上表示。他强调，除非有“令人信服的证据”表明通胀正在得到控制，否则央行将继续推进其激进的加息举措。美联储官员已开始为在7月份的下一次会议上至少再加息75个基点奠定基础，而市场参与者也已做好迎接进一步货币紧缩的准备。人们预期，未来几个月的通胀数据不足以让央行采取任何宽松政策。根据美联储上周五公布的数据，鉴于当前的经济背景，利率应在4%至7%之间。这个数据纯粹是基于央行用作指引的理论政策规则。黄金处于进退两难的困境之中由于市场已准备迎接美联储主席鲍威尔的一些鹰派言论，周四美元指数走高。黄金价格已经连续第四天下跌。当市场风险情绪低迷时，美国国债收益率上升会抑制风险情绪，但同时削弱了避险资金对黄金的兴趣。而当市场情绪好转时，风险偏好的改善又会推动资本转向风险更高、收益更好的资产。由于美国国债收益率的上升与通胀预期同步，金价现在几乎看不到通胀预期上升带来的好处。此外，在实物市场上，5月，全球最大的黄金精炼中心和转运中心——瑞士自俄乌冲突以来首次从俄罗斯进口了价值约2亿美元的黄金，暗示了该行业对俄罗斯贵金属的孤立有所减弱，实物黄金供应可能增加，这可能进一步打压金价。经济衰退预期已经开始“杀”油价？石油和大宗商品难逃全球经济衰退担忧的影响。周四，iShares多元化商品指数今年首次大幅跌破50日移动均线。能源和大宗商品对冲通胀上升的有效性可能正在减弱，因为全球经济衰退将会打击商品需求，同时也会让能源行业回撤去年的部分涨势。油价也是如此。受经济衰退担忧的影响，美国原油价格周四一度逼近每桶103美元，接下来将面临100美元心理关口的考验。油价的持续下跌将暗示对全球经济衰退的担忧正在占据上风，并超过了供应紧张、中国经济复苏的前景和旅游业繁荣等这些积极因素。另一方面，拜登的努力收效甚微。战略石油储备的释放，以及与沙特关系的改善，都很难缓解油价的上涨。暂停征收联邦汽油税可能会难以见效，因为它并不会帮助普通司机节省大量开支，该措施不会持续到中期选举之后，甚至可能不会得到两党批准，因为燃油税将为道路修缮提供重要的资金来源。因此，Fxstreet分析师认为，最终结果仍将是经济衰退导致原油需求破坏，将价格压低至100美元/桶以下，理想情况下是接近92美元/桶，即200日移动均线。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":683029118,"gmtCreate":1655897711736,"gmtModify":1704863537686,"author":{"id":"4117721252592160","authorId":"4117721252592160","name":"M_4166","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2429a99bbf87f5900594ca41ec74c1de","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"当年无条件制造通胀得是谁？","listText":"当年无条件制造通胀得是谁？","text":"当年无条件制造通胀得是谁？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683029118","repostId":1199300602,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":683020801,"gmtCreate":1655897511605,"gmtModify":1704863536137,"author":{"id":"3520351954744518","authorId":"3520351954744518","name":"勇敢小飞猪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f23ebb4f6ce3190351f5dae06e8d48b","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"今晚又要大跌了，那明天又涨","listText":"今晚又要大跌了，那明天又涨","text":"今晚又要大跌了，那明天又涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683020801","repostId":1199300602,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":683064848,"gmtCreate":1655895957189,"gmtModify":1704863532862,"author":{"id":"3466588668728406","authorId":"3466588668728406","name":"Jamesong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f6adc4e68e88a5881cd59e5b0a06547","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"要发表重要讲话？","listText":"要发表重要讲话？","text":"要发表重要讲话？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683064848","repostId":1199300602,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7494394,"gmtCreate":1655897727250,"gmtModify":1655897958866,"authorId":4117721252592160,"author":{"id":4117721252592160,"authorId":4117721252592160,"name":"M_4166","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2429a99bbf87f5900594ca41ec74c1de","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":683064848,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"高度重视","text":"高度重视","html":"高度重视"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":683066774,"gmtCreate":1655893726101,"gmtModify":1704863528551,"author":{"id":"3561369134239825","authorId":"3561369134239825","name":"壹碗","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da77e12203e17ff537b16cc57580907e","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683066774","repostId":1199300602,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7780238,"gmtCreate":1670844147338,"gmtModify":1670844160191,"authorId":3566425224924693,"author":{"id":3566425224924693,"authorId":3566425224924693,"name":"CM1990","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1288ea98e94863b8f2e308981003b510","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":683066774,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"6","text":"6","html":"6"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":683068347,"gmtCreate":1655892849893,"gmtModify":1704863525797,"author":{"id":"3537836688379034","authorId":"3537836688379034","name":"Woshidui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/713926b862e703789c8136667ca88922","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com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