美国养老金大调仓，“抛股买债”会冲垮市场吗？

华尔街见闻2021-03-23

作者：于旭东对于股市投资者来说，3月末要特别注意，因为美国养老基金要有大动作了。下周，美国养老基金可能成为美债大买家，因为他们要重新平衡所持有的债券，以弥补第一季度的抛售，这可能会导致美债收益率至少暂时性下降。关键的再平衡美国养老金再平衡，指美国固定收益类养老金在每月末或每季度末根据市场表现调仓，以维持股债配置比例（美国固收类养老金计划整体股债配置比例为6：4）。当季股票收益率小于债券收益率时，...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我是一盘菜
2021-03-24
我是一盘菜
一天到晚不是说崩盘就是冲垮，人家只是为了6/4平均而调仓，哪有这么大的威力，放个屁都躲床底下去，还冲什么浪炒什么股
YourCFP
2021-03-24
YourCFP
换仓机会
dwh790101
2021-03-24
dwh790101
什么情况？
- 勇敢的謝爾頓:
  [惊讶]
向上学习
2021-03-24
向上学习
不要重仓，小心为妙。
- Louis5511:
  对
- EstherPang:
  [强]
- EstherPang:
  [开心]
疯狂虎
2021-03-24
疯狂虎
会开始新跌么？
- 疯狂虎:
  [流泪][流泪]
Dxc21st
2021-03-24
Dxc21st
五公斤了铜模来咯来咯
- ccssyy:
  [贱笑]

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198705554?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96819b78df36696eeccbf03ebd7c466d","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2021-03-23 22:46","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","id":"1198705554","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"美国养老金大调仓，“抛股买债”会冲垮市场吗？","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>作者：于旭东对于股市投资者来说，3月末要特别注意，因为美国养老基金要有大动作了。下周，美国养老基金可能成为美债大买家，因为他们要重新平衡所持有的债券，以弥补第一季度的抛售，这可能会导致美债收益率至少暂时性下降。关键的再平衡美国养老金再平衡，指美国固定收益类养老金在每月末或每季度末根据市场表现调仓，以维持股债配置比例（美国固收类养老金计划整体股债配置比例为6：4）。当季股票收益率小于债券收益率时，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624762\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国养老金大调仓，“抛股买债”会冲垮市场吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国养老金大调仓，“抛股买债”会冲垮市场吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-23 22:46 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624762><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：于旭东对于股市投资者来说，3月末要特别注意，因为美国养老基金要有大动作了。下周，美国养老基金可能成为美债大买家，因为他们要重新平衡所持有的债券，以弥补第一季度的抛售，这可能会导致美债收益率至少暂时性下降。关键的再平衡美国养老金再平衡，指美国固定收益类养老金在每月末或每季度末根据市场表现调仓，以维持股债配置比例（美国固收类养老金计划整体股债配置比例为6：4）。当季股票收益率小于债券收益率时，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624762\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624762","article_id":"1198705554","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/96819b78df36696eeccbf03ebd7c466d"],"rights":{"source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624762","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198705554","pubTimestamp":1616510780,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"highlight_wallstreetcn","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"这将导致美债收益率下降，利好股市。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"The US pension ushered in a major position at the end of the quarter, which may be good for US stocks this time","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/558624a1513b560655bcfc7166f4bdf3","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"作者：于旭东对于股市投资者来说，3月末要特别注意，因为美国养老基金要有大动作了。下周，美国养老基金可能成为美债大买家，因为他们要重新平衡所持有的债券，以弥补第一季度的抛售，这可能会导致美债收益率至少暂时性下降。关键的再平衡美国养老金再平衡，指美国固定收益类养老金在每月末或每季度末根据市场表现调仓，以维持股债配置比例（美国固收类养老金计划整体股债配置比例为6：4）。当季股票收益率小于债券收益率时，季末增配股市使其往往表现更好，18年末即属于类似情形。若当季股票与债券收益率差异较大，季末养老金出于再平衡而调仓，往往加大市场波动。因此，美国养老金每季度6:4的再平衡也将带来巨大的抛售。市场预计，再平衡后美国养老金可能更偏重于持有债券，债券和股票的持有比例可能会达到61%：39%或者62%：38%。富国银行Michael Schumacher估计，企业养老基金可能将不得不弥补约1250亿美元的债券缺口，这是十年来最大的缺口。Schumacher还表示，这些措施并非都将在季度末之前全部实施，但他预计，到3月31日，这些基金将购买大约250亿美元的债券以弥补这一缺口。Schumacher还认为，通常投资者会因为股市的良好表现而减少持股并重新平衡资产，因此美股将承受抛售压力。但由于美债收益率持续飙升，股票常常被大杀估值；而每当美债收益率稳定下来时，股票的表现就会转好。随着周一美债收益率下滑，美股尤其是纳斯达克100指数得到了喘息。银行需求放缓，养老金已是美债大买家在2020年，经济不确定性增加，加上刺激方案，导致储蓄额急剧上升，银行系统中的客户存款显着增加。这使银行能够增加其证券投资组合的规模，从而带动了银行对美国国债的强烈需求。美银预计，今年，因为非储备存款的增长速度将放缓至正常水平，并且贷款需求将回升，今年银行对美债的需求将下降。而养老金和LDI（负债驱动投资）对美债的需求仍将保持强劲。这意味着，随着资金状况的改善和费率的提高，养老金将成为今年重要的债券买家。美银发现，10年期名义收益率的变化与养老金和保险公司的国债需求之间存在正相关关系，后者遵循类似的资产负债管理策略。由此，美银预计这些投资者的需求将增加50到1500亿美元。市场预期截至周一美股收盘，FANG涨势良好，Facebook、亚马逊、Netflix、谷歌母公司Alphabet和苹果止跌反弹。BTIG股票和衍生品策略主管Julian Emanuel表示，投资者对FANG的抛售已经到头了，他预计成长型股票将受益于本季度末美债收益率的下跌。Emanuel同时表示，股市实际上可能处于拐点。而Schumacher也表示，目前美债收益率下降，可能在几周内会保持稳定，但在未来会继续攀升，并导致美股受挫。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":351087759,"gmtCreate":1616546342271,"gmtModify":1616546342271,"author":{"id":"3549856352419365","authorId":"3549856352419365","name":"我是一盘菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8911549a73c394f106771e79e9f920f1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"一天到晚不是说崩盘就是冲垮，人家只是为了6/4平均而调仓，哪有这么大的威力，放个屁都躲床底下去，还冲什么浪炒什么股","listText":"一天到晚不是说崩盘就是冲垮，人家只是为了6/4平均而调仓，哪有这么大的威力，放个屁都躲床底下去，还冲什么浪炒什么股","text":"一天到晚不是说崩盘就是冲垮，人家只是为了6/4平均而调仓，哪有这么大的威力，放个屁都躲床底下去，还冲什么浪炒什么股","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351087759","repostId":1198705554,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":351015092,"gmtCreate":1616545631316,"gmtModify":1634525295922,"author":{"id":"3569263461157925","authorId":"3569263461157925","name":"YourCFP","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f5e965075ba7b03f9c5aade30f04ed","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"换仓机会","listText":"换仓机会","text":"换仓机会","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351015092","repostId":1198705554,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":351000627,"gmtCreate":1616543131869,"gmtModify":1634525321376,"author":{"id":"3495252398666385","authorId":"3495252398666385","name":"dwh790101","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa8ecad30f97a85a2c39efed09e6d26","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"什么情况？","listText":"什么情况？","text":"什么情况？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351000627","repostId":1198705554,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3866712,"gmtCreate":1616546309938,"gmtModify":1635750164074,"authorId":3572783242188448,"author":{"id":3572783242188448,"authorId":3572783242188448,"name":"勇敢的謝爾頓","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":351000627,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[惊讶]","text":"[惊讶]","html":"[惊讶]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":353729193,"gmtCreate":1616539616812,"gmtModify":1634525352152,"author":{"id":"3576884869412058","authorId":"3576884869412058","name":"向上学习","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70af8809a95756364cc82fcfde2f404","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"不要重仓，小心为妙。","listText":"不要重仓，小心为妙。","text":"不要重仓，小心为妙。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353729193","repostId":1198705554,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3865867,"gmtCreate":1616540412711,"gmtModify":1635750226962,"authorId":3567910140501346,"author":{"id":3567910140501346,"authorId":3567910140501346,"name":"Louis5511","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8e43fb876d997a00a240cf684fdf75c","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":353729193,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"对","text":"对","html":"对"},{"id":3875181,"gmtCreate":1616625770744,"gmtModify":1635749716541,"authorId":3576365817943823,"author":{"id":3576365817943823,"authorId":3576365817943823,"name":"EstherPang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8990239e19377757a2b24cf2333a310d","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-2","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"宗师交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到100次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"80.68%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":353729193,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[强]","text":"[强]","html":"[强]"},{"id":3897718,"gmtCreate":1616807909917,"gmtModify":1635748511480,"authorId":3576365817943823,"author":{"id":3576365817943823,"authorId":3576365817943823,"name":"EstherPang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8990239e19377757a2b24cf2333a310d","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-2","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"宗师交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到100次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"80.68%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":353729193,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[开心]","text":"[开心]","html":"[开心]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":353787962,"gmtCreate":1616537723756,"gmtModify":1634525360869,"author":{"id":"3559541808650671","authorId":"3559541808650671","name":"疯狂虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09347048b3f1a125e5e6dce542942573","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"会开始新跌么？","listText":"会开始新跌么？","text":"会开始新跌么？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353787962","repostId":1198705554,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6785045,"gmtCreate":1638277334309,"gmtModify":1638277334337,"authorId":3559541808650671,"author":{"id":3559541808650671,"authorId":3559541808650671,"name":"疯狂虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09347048b3f1a125e5e6dce542942573","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":353787962,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[流泪][流泪]","text":"[流泪][流泪]","html":"[流泪][流泪]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":353783512,"gmtCreate":1616535990936,"gmtModify":1616535990936,"author":{"id":"3566606770733259","authorId":"3566606770733259","name":"Dxc21st","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f56a2dee1e5883fa7ab02bcfabf8a624","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a26386acf493bab3f5520021849bb50e","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"五公斤了铜模来咯来咯","listText":"五公斤了铜模来咯来咯","text":"五公斤了铜模来咯来咯","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353783512","repostId":1198705554,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3865601,"gmtCreate":1616536546368,"gmtModify":1635750244674,"authorId":3573688531814941,"author":{"id":3573688531814941,"authorId":3573688531814941,"name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":353783512,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[贱笑]","text":"[贱笑]","html":"[贱笑]"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":69,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":3,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.5","shortVersion":"4.22.5","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1198705554"}