So many bullish signs for this stock market — except the most important one

MarketWatch2021-06-07

S&P 500 bulls keep failing to take control.The S&P 500 indexSPX,+0.88%probed up to – but not beyond – its all-time highs at 4238. The failure to break through to new highs this week gives the bears ...

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Sing2me
2021-06-07
Sing2me
Like n comment
- edamame:
  yes
KTX
2021-06-07
KTX
Fake
WayneSing
2021-06-07
WayneSing
like and comment thanks
- 堵神:
  done.. please reply thanks 😊
- Sing2me:
  Done
wc77
2021-06-07
wc77
like and comment pls
- WayneSing:
  please return on mine too
Markzai
2021-06-07
Markzai
Yes
shngski
2021-06-07
shngski
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- FlyHighFly:
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The failure to break through to new highs this week gives the bears ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/so-many-bullish-signs-for-this-stock-market-except-the-most-important-one-01622734536?mod=home-page\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1603348471595","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>So many bullish signs for this stock market — except the most important one</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSo many bullish signs for this stock market — except the most important one\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-07 16:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/so-many-bullish-signs-for-this-stock-market-except-the-most-important-one-01622734536?mod=home-page>MarketWatch</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nS&P 500 bulls keep failing to take control.The S&P 500 indexSPX,+0.88%probed up to – but not beyond – its all-time highs at 4238. The failure to break through to new highs this week gives the bears ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/so-many-bullish-signs-for-this-stock-market-except-the-most-important-one-01622734536?mod=home-page\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SPY","symbol_name":"标普500ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/so-many-bullish-signs-for-this-stock-market-except-the-most-important-one-01622734536?mod=home-page","article_id":"1191872806","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191872806","pubTimestamp":1623054201,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1603348471595","name":"MarketWatch"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"S&P 500 bulls keep failing to take control.The S&P 500 indexSPX,+0.88%probed up to – but not beyond ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"marketwatch.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"translate_title":"股市有这么多看涨的迹象--除了最重要的一个","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"S&P 500 bulls keep failing to take control.The S&P 500 indexSPX,+0.88%probed up to – but not beyond – its all-time highs at 4238. The failure to break through to new highs this week gives the bears another chance.The broader picture is that the index has been trading in a range between 4060 and 4238 for nearly two months. Given the length of time the S&P has spent inside this range, a breakout from the range should be significant.An aggressive way to deal with a trading range is to buy the market near the lows of the range and sell (short) the market near the top of the ranking, planning to reverse your position if the market does indeed break out of the range. A less aggressive trade is to buy straddles when SPX is near the top or bottom of the range, figuring that it will either break out or trade to the other side of the range.The S&P has been sitting near the top of the range since May 24. The longer it goes without breaking out to new all-time highs, the more likely it will trade down to the lower regions of the range.For the record, below the range there is support at 4000 and 3870, but it seems to me that if the lower of the range is broken, there will be a swift move lower to test those support levels. Also, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect, as noted at the upper right of the accompanying SPX chart.Equity-only put-call ratios are still on sell signals, at least according to the computer programs we use to analyze these charts. However, to the naked eye they are no longer rising (which places the sell signals in jeopardy). One can see that the standard ratio has taken a dip over the past couple of days (the dip being caused, in part, by extremely heavy call buying in the “short squeeze” stocks: AMC, BlackBerry, Beyond Meat etc.).There is a similar, but less obvious dip on the weighted chart. For now, the sell signals remain in place, but if this new pace of heavy call buying persists, these indicators could roll over to buy signals soon.Breadth has improved greatly in the last week or so. Both breadth oscillators are on buy signals. Moreover, they have moved into overbought territory, which is a good thing only if SPX can follow through and break out to the upside. In addition, the cumulative breadth indicators are trading at new all-time highs once again.New 52-week highs continue to easily outnumber new 52-week lows on the NYSE and elsewhere. Thus this indicator remains bullish. In fact, the number of new highs has expanded considerably and is near the extreme levels last seen in late February, but not seen for five years prior to that.The volatility “complex” is bullish on stocks, in general. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect, and the trend of VIXVIX,4.63%is downward. Traders are still reluctant to push VIX down to extremely low levels, but one can see from the accompanying chart that VIX is below both its 20-day and 200-day moving averages. As long as the trend of volatility is lower, that is bullish for stocks.Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains a bullish indicator for stocks. The VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through October. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward.In summary, there are mostly bullish indicators in place. However, the most important indicator – the price of the stock market itself – is not confirming this apparent bullishness. It needs to break out to new all-time highs to do so, and that has been lacking.We continue to expect a volatile move away from current levels – whether that entails a retracement to the lower end of the trading or a strong breakout to new all-time highs. Hence, we are employing trading range strategies, along with holding positions in line with confirmed signals from our indicators.New recommendation: Cornerstone OnDemandOption activity has increased dramatically in Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD,+3.39%as there are takeover rumors. The stock traded up to near-term resistance at 47 and then fell back. We are going to use a contingent recommendation here. In other words, we will only buy the CSOD call options if the contingency is fulfilled:IF CSOD closes above 47, THEN buy 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 callsIf the calls are bought, we will hold without a stop, while the rumors play out.New recommendation: DropboxAnother stock with heavy option activity has been DropboxDBX,+1.06%.The activist investor Elliot Group has taken a stake and will push the company to pursue strategies that increase its stock price in the short term. One rumor is a merger with rival BoxBOX,+1.78%.Dropbox probed up to a three-year high on the news, but then fell back. So we are going to use a contingent recommendation here also:IF DBX closes above 28.50, THEN buy 4 DBX July (16th) 28 callsIf these calls are bought, we will hold without a stop initially and see if the activist investor can accomplish something.Follow-up actionAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.Long 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4320 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.Long 1 SPY June (18th) 420 put and short 1 SPY Jun (18th) 400 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPY trades at the lower strike at any time.Long 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.Long 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices).Long 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,-0.14%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian NationalCNI,+0.66%.The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. So, with CNI at 112, the deal is worth $326. Of course, there will be regulatory delays. We are going to hold to see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian PacificCP,-0.14%—the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer or not. Finally, stop out the calls if CNI closes at 108 or lower.Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPXtradesat 437, roll the calls up from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll the puts down to the 403 strike.Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:Hold without a stop while takeover rumors persist.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":114169387,"gmtCreate":1623057839049,"gmtModify":1634037410795,"author":{"id":"3571448024288156","authorId":"3571448024288156","name":"Sing2me","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f485854808e05893440cba75ca2a8b6a","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3571448024288156","idStr":"3571448024288156"},"htmlText":"Like n comment","listText":"Like n comment","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114169387","repostId":1191872806,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191872806","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623054201,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191872806?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-07 16:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"So many bullish signs for this stock market — except the most important one<blockquote>这个股市有很多看涨迹象——除了最重要的一个</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191872806","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"S&P 500 bulls keep failing to take control.The S&P 500 indexSPX,+0.88%probed up to – but not beyond ","content":"S&amp;P 500 bulls keep failing to take control.The S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,+0.88%probed up to – but not beyond – its all-time highs at 4238. The failure to break through to new highs this week gives the bears another chance.<blockquote>标普500多头一直未能控制局面。标普500指数SPX,+0.88%触及（但未超过）4238点的历史高点。本周未能突破新高给了空头另一次机会。</blockquote>The broader picture is that the index has been trading in a range between 4060 and 4238 for nearly two months. Given the length of time the S&amp;P has spent inside this range, a breakout from the range should be significant.<blockquote>更广泛的情况是，该指数近两个月来一直在4060点至4238点之间交易。考虑到标准普尔指数在该区间内停留的时间长度，突破该区间应该意义重大。</blockquote>An aggressive way to deal with a trading range is to buy the market near the lows of the range and sell (short) the market near the top of the ranking, planning to reverse your position if the market does indeed break out of the range. A less aggressive trade is to buy straddles when SPX is near the top or bottom of the range, figuring that it will either break out or trade to the other side of the range.<blockquote>处理交易区间的一种激进方法是在区间低点附近买入市场，在排名顶部附近卖出（做空）市场，如果市场确实突破区间，计划反转您的头寸。不太激进的交易是当SPX接近该区间的顶部或底部时买入跨式交易，认为它要么会突破，要么交易到该区间的另一侧。</blockquote>The S&amp;P has been sitting near the top of the range since May 24. The longer it goes without breaking out to new all-time highs, the more likely it will trade down to the lower regions of the range.<blockquote>自5月24日以来，S&amp;P一直位于区间顶部附近。它没有突破历史新高的时间越长，就越有可能跌至该区间的较低区域。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b76daeb46d3b4588f3f20f6b007b4520\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">For the record, below the range there is support at 4000 and 3870, but it seems to me that if the lower of the range is broken, there will be a swift move lower to test those support levels. Also, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect, as noted at the upper right of the accompanying SPX chart.<blockquote>根据记录，该区间下方有4000点和3870点的支撑位，但在我看来，如果该区间的下限被突破，将会迅速走低以测试这些支撑位。此外，麦克米兰波动带(MVB)卖出信号仍然有效，如随附的SPX图表右上角所示。</blockquote>Equity-only put-call ratios are still on sell signals, at least according to the computer programs we use to analyze these charts. However, to the naked eye they are no longer rising (which places the sell signals in jeopardy). One can see that the standard ratio has taken a dip over the past couple of days (the dip being caused, in part, by extremely heavy call buying in the “short squeeze” stocks: AMC, BlackBerry, Beyond Meat etc.).<blockquote>仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率仍然是卖出信号，至少根据我们用来分析这些图表的计算机程序是这样。然而，肉眼看，它们不再上涨（这使得卖出信号处于危险之中）。人们可以看到，标准比率在过去几天有所下降（下降的部分原因是看涨期权大量买入“轧空”股票：AMC、黑莓、Beyond Meat等）。）.</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4a2d971772c195acca42723b2a23d37\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There is a similar, but less obvious dip on the weighted chart. For now, the sell signals remain in place, but if this new pace of heavy call buying persists, these indicators could roll over to buy signals soon.<blockquote>加权图上也有类似但不太明显的下降。目前，卖出信号仍然存在，但如果看涨期权大量买入的新步伐持续下去，这些指标可能很快就会转为买入信号。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60e1cdfdbb7193427ffba139a9b7b00\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Breadth has improved greatly in the last week or so. Both breadth oscillators are on buy signals. Moreover, they have moved into overbought territory, which is a good thing only if SPX can follow through and break out to the upside. In addition, the cumulative breadth indicators are trading at new all-time highs once again.<blockquote>广度在最近一周左右有了很大的改善。两个宽度振荡器都处于买入信号。此外，它们已经进入超买区域，只有当SPX能够坚持并向上突破时，这才是一件好事。此外，累计广度指标再次创下历史新高。</blockquote>New 52-week highs continue to easily outnumber new 52-week lows on the NYSE and elsewhere. Thus this indicator remains bullish. In fact, the number of new highs has expanded considerably and is near the extreme levels last seen in late February, but not seen for five years prior to that.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所和其他地方的52周新高继续轻松超过52周新低。因此该指标仍然看涨。事实上，新高的数量已大幅扩大，接近2月底出现的极端水平，但在此之前的五年中从未出现过。</blockquote>The volatility “complex” is bullish on stocks, in general. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect, and the trend of VIXVIX,4.63%is downward. Traders are still reluctant to push VIX down to extremely low levels, but one can see from the accompanying chart that VIX is below both its 20-day and 200-day moving averages. As long as the trend of volatility is lower, that is bullish for stocks.<blockquote>总体而言，波动性“复合体”看好股市。VIX“尖峰”买入信号仍然有效，VIXVIX，4.63%的趋势向下。交易员仍不愿将VIX压低至极低水平，但从附图中可以看出，VIX均低于20日和200日移动均线。只要波动率趋势较低，对股票来说就是看涨的。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac25caadad8b56159e600a98a4763f4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains a bullish indicator for stocks. The VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through October. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward.<blockquote>最后，波动性衍生品的构造仍然是股市的看涨指标。VIX期货的交易价格均高于VIX，期限结构在10月份之前向上倾斜。同样，CBOE波动率指数的期限结构向上倾斜。</blockquote>In summary, there are mostly bullish indicators in place. However, the most important indicator – the price of the stock market itself – is not confirming this apparent bullishness. It needs to break out to new all-time highs to do so, and that has been lacking.<blockquote>综上所述，看涨指标大多到位。然而，最重要的指标——股市本身的价格——并没有证实这种明显的看涨情绪。要做到这一点，它需要突破历史新高，而这一直是缺乏的。</blockquote>We continue to expect a volatile move away from current levels – whether that entails a retracement to the lower end of the trading or a strong breakout to new all-time highs. Hence, we are employing trading range strategies, along with holding positions in line with confirmed signals from our indicators.<blockquote>我们仍然预计当前水平将出现波动——无论是回撤至交易下限还是强劲突破至历史新高。因此，我们采用交易区间策略，并根据指标确认的信号持仓。</blockquote>New recommendation: Cornerstone OnDemand<blockquote>新推荐：Cornerstone OnDemand</blockquote>Option activity has increased dramatically in Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD,+3.39%as there are takeover rumors. The stock traded up to near-term resistance at 47 and then fell back. We are going to use a contingent recommendation here. In other words, we will only buy the CSOD call options if the contingency is fulfilled:<blockquote>由于有收购传闻，Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD的期权活动大幅增加，+3.39%。该股升至近期阻力位47，然后回落。我们将在这里使用一个或有推荐。换句话说，我们只有在满足或有事项的情况下才会购买CSOD看涨期权期权：</blockquote>IF CSOD closes above 47, THEN buy 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls<blockquote>如果CSOD收盘高于47，那么买入4 CSOD 7月（16日）47.5评级</blockquote>If the calls are bought, we will hold without a stop, while the rumors play out.<blockquote>如果评级被买入，我们将不停地持有，而谣言却在上演。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89fee88abb92504efba975eec92b68a3\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">New recommendation: Dropbox<blockquote>新推荐：Dropbox</blockquote>Another stock with heavy option activity has been DropboxDBX,+1.06%.The activist investor Elliot Group has taken a stake and will push the company to pursue strategies that increase its stock price in the short term. One rumor is a merger with rival BoxBOX,+1.78%.<blockquote>另一只期权活跃的股票是DropboxDBX，+1.06%。激进投资者Elliot Group已入股，并将推动该公司采取短期内提高股价的策略。有传言称将与竞争对手BoxBOX合并，+1.78%。</blockquote>Dropbox probed up to a three-year high on the news, but then fell back. So we are going to use a contingent recommendation here also:<blockquote>受此消息影响，Dropbox一度触及三年高点，但随后回落。因此，我们将在这里使用一个或有建议：</blockquote>IF DBX closes above 28.50, THEN buy 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls<blockquote>如果DBX收盘高于28.50，那么买入4 DBX 7月（16日）28日评级</blockquote>If these calls are bought, we will hold without a stop initially and see if the activist investor can accomplish something.<blockquote>如果这些评级被买入，我们最初会不停地持有，看看激进投资者是否能有所成就。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdc61a08d1269de554b35f4ced78a776\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有停止都是精神关闭停止。</blockquote>Long 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4320 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.<blockquote>多头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（11日）410看跌期权空头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（11日）385看跌期权：进行这笔交易是因为5月12日SPX下跌至4105点时出现了MVB卖出信号。它将被SPX再次收于+4 σ波段上方止损，该波段位于4320点并横盘整理。如果SPX在-4 σ区间交易，该信号将达到其利润目标。目前，较低的波段在4020点左右，正在横盘整理。如果SPX在任何时候交易于4000点，则卖出该头寸的一半。</blockquote>Long 1 SPY June (18th) 420 put and short 1 SPY Jun (18th) 400 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPY trades at the lower strike at any time.<blockquote>多头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）420看跌空头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）400看跌：该建议基于现有的纯股票看跌看涨期权比率卖出信号。只要仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率处于卖出信号，我们就将持有这一建议。因此，我们将每周更新状态。如果SPDR标普500指数ETF在任何时候都以较低的罢工价格进行交易，则向下滚动头寸，每边20次罢工。</blockquote>Long 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.<blockquote>龙3德6月（18日）100评级：在我们等待激进投资者产生积极结果时，不要停止持有。</blockquote>Long 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices).<blockquote>多2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）415评级空2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）428评级：该价差是在5月21日最新的VIX“尖峰”买入信号得到确认时买入的。如果VIX回到飙升模式，也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短的时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），它将被止损。</blockquote>Long 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,-0.14%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian NationalCNI,+0.66%.The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. So, with CNI at 112, the deal is worth $326. Of course, there will be regulatory delays. We are going to hold to see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian PacificCP,-0.14%—the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer or not. Finally, stop out the calls if CNI closes at 108 or lower.<blockquote>龙1 KSU 6月（18日）300看涨期权：堪萨斯城南方KSU,-0.14%已正式接受加拿大国家CNI,+0.66%的更高收购要约。该交易的价格为200美元现金+1.129股CNI股票。因此，CNI为112，这笔交易价值326美元。当然，也会有监管上的延迟。我们将持有，看看这种利差是否会有所收紧。目前尚不清楚另一家竞购者Canadian PacificCP(-0.14%)是否会提出更好的报价。最后，如果CNI收于108或更低，则止损评级。</blockquote>Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPXtradesat 437, roll the calls up from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll the puts down to the 403 strike.<blockquote>做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看涨期权和做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看跌：这种多头跨式交易是在预期SPX将从420水平波动移动的情况下进行的。如果SPX贸易在437时，将评级从420罢工向上滚动到437罢工（或最接近该罢工）。相反，如果SPX交易价格为403，则将看跌期权降至403执行价。</blockquote>Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:Hold without a stop while takeover rumors persist.<blockquote>龙4 CERN 6月（18日）80评级：在收购传言持续存在的情况下，不要停止持有。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>So many bullish signs for this stock market — except the most important one<blockquote>这个股市有很多看涨迹象——除了最重要的一个</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSo many bullish signs for this stock market — except the most important one<blockquote>这个股市有很多看涨迹象——除了最重要的一个</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-07 16:23\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nS&amp;P 500 bulls keep failing to take control.The S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,+0.88%probed up to – but not beyond – its all-time highs at 4238. The failure to break through to new highs this week gives the bears another chance.<blockquote>标普500多头一直未能控制局面。标普500指数SPX,+0.88%触及（但未超过）4238点的历史高点。本周未能突破新高给了空头另一次机会。</blockquote>The broader picture is that the index has been trading in a range between 4060 and 4238 for nearly two months. Given the length of time the S&amp;P has spent inside this range, a breakout from the range should be significant.<blockquote>更广泛的情况是，该指数近两个月来一直在4060点至4238点之间交易。考虑到标准普尔指数在该区间内停留的时间长度，突破该区间应该意义重大。</blockquote>An aggressive way to deal with a trading range is to buy the market near the lows of the range and sell (short) the market near the top of the ranking, planning to reverse your position if the market does indeed break out of the range. A less aggressive trade is to buy straddles when SPX is near the top or bottom of the range, figuring that it will either break out or trade to the other side of the range.<blockquote>处理交易区间的一种激进方法是在区间低点附近买入市场，在排名顶部附近卖出（做空）市场，如果市场确实突破区间，计划反转您的头寸。不太激进的交易是当SPX接近该区间的顶部或底部时买入跨式交易，认为它要么会突破，要么交易到该区间的另一侧。</blockquote>The S&amp;P has been sitting near the top of the range since May 24. The longer it goes without breaking out to new all-time highs, the more likely it will trade down to the lower regions of the range.<blockquote>自5月24日以来，S&amp;P一直位于区间顶部附近。它没有突破历史新高的时间越长，就越有可能跌至该区间的较低区域。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b76daeb46d3b4588f3f20f6b007b4520\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">For the record, below the range there is support at 4000 and 3870, but it seems to me that if the lower of the range is broken, there will be a swift move lower to test those support levels. Also, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect, as noted at the upper right of the accompanying SPX chart.<blockquote>根据记录，该区间下方有4000点和3870点的支撑位，但在我看来，如果该区间的下限被突破，将会迅速走低以测试这些支撑位。此外，麦克米兰波动带(MVB)卖出信号仍然有效，如随附的SPX图表右上角所示。</blockquote>Equity-only put-call ratios are still on sell signals, at least according to the computer programs we use to analyze these charts. However, to the naked eye they are no longer rising (which places the sell signals in jeopardy). One can see that the standard ratio has taken a dip over the past couple of days (the dip being caused, in part, by extremely heavy call buying in the “short squeeze” stocks: AMC, BlackBerry, Beyond Meat etc.).<blockquote>仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率仍然是卖出信号，至少根据我们用来分析这些图表的计算机程序是这样。然而，肉眼看，它们不再上涨（这使得卖出信号处于危险之中）。人们可以看到，标准比率在过去几天有所下降（下降的部分原因是看涨期权大量买入“轧空”股票：AMC、黑莓、Beyond Meat等）。）.</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4a2d971772c195acca42723b2a23d37\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There is a similar, but less obvious dip on the weighted chart. For now, the sell signals remain in place, but if this new pace of heavy call buying persists, these indicators could roll over to buy signals soon.<blockquote>加权图上也有类似但不太明显的下降。目前，卖出信号仍然存在，但如果看涨期权大量买入的新步伐持续下去，这些指标可能很快就会转为买入信号。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60e1cdfdbb7193427ffba139a9b7b00\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Breadth has improved greatly in the last week or so. Both breadth oscillators are on buy signals. Moreover, they have moved into overbought territory, which is a good thing only if SPX can follow through and break out to the upside. In addition, the cumulative breadth indicators are trading at new all-time highs once again.<blockquote>广度在最近一周左右有了很大的改善。两个宽度振荡器都处于买入信号。此外，它们已经进入超买区域，只有当SPX能够坚持并向上突破时，这才是一件好事。此外，累计广度指标再次创下历史新高。</blockquote>New 52-week highs continue to easily outnumber new 52-week lows on the NYSE and elsewhere. Thus this indicator remains bullish. In fact, the number of new highs has expanded considerably and is near the extreme levels last seen in late February, but not seen for five years prior to that.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所和其他地方的52周新高继续轻松超过52周新低。因此该指标仍然看涨。事实上，新高的数量已大幅扩大，接近2月底出现的极端水平，但在此之前的五年中从未出现过。</blockquote>The volatility “complex” is bullish on stocks, in general. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect, and the trend of VIXVIX,4.63%is downward. Traders are still reluctant to push VIX down to extremely low levels, but one can see from the accompanying chart that VIX is below both its 20-day and 200-day moving averages. As long as the trend of volatility is lower, that is bullish for stocks.<blockquote>总体而言，波动性“复合体”看好股市。VIX“尖峰”买入信号仍然有效，VIXVIX，4.63%的趋势向下。交易员仍不愿将VIX压低至极低水平，但从附图中可以看出，VIX均低于20日和200日移动均线。只要波动率趋势较低，对股票来说就是看涨的。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac25caadad8b56159e600a98a4763f4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains a bullish indicator for stocks. The VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through October. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward.<blockquote>最后，波动性衍生品的构造仍然是股市的看涨指标。VIX期货的交易价格均高于VIX，期限结构在10月份之前向上倾斜。同样，CBOE波动率指数的期限结构向上倾斜。</blockquote>In summary, there are mostly bullish indicators in place. However, the most important indicator – the price of the stock market itself – is not confirming this apparent bullishness. It needs to break out to new all-time highs to do so, and that has been lacking.<blockquote>综上所述，看涨指标大多到位。然而，最重要的指标——股市本身的价格——并没有证实这种明显的看涨情绪。要做到这一点，它需要突破历史新高，而这一直是缺乏的。</blockquote>We continue to expect a volatile move away from current levels – whether that entails a retracement to the lower end of the trading or a strong breakout to new all-time highs. Hence, we are employing trading range strategies, along with holding positions in line with confirmed signals from our indicators.<blockquote>我们仍然预计当前水平将出现波动——无论是回撤至交易下限还是强劲突破至历史新高。因此，我们采用交易区间策略，并根据指标确认的信号持仓。</blockquote>New recommendation: Cornerstone OnDemand<blockquote>新推荐：Cornerstone OnDemand</blockquote>Option activity has increased dramatically in Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD,+3.39%as there are takeover rumors. The stock traded up to near-term resistance at 47 and then fell back. We are going to use a contingent recommendation here. In other words, we will only buy the CSOD call options if the contingency is fulfilled:<blockquote>由于有收购传闻，Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD的期权活动大幅增加，+3.39%。该股升至近期阻力位47，然后回落。我们将在这里使用一个或有推荐。换句话说，我们只有在满足或有事项的情况下才会购买CSOD看涨期权期权：</blockquote>IF CSOD closes above 47, THEN buy 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls<blockquote>如果CSOD收盘高于47，那么买入4 CSOD 7月（16日）47.5评级</blockquote>If the calls are bought, we will hold without a stop, while the rumors play out.<blockquote>如果评级被买入，我们将不停地持有，而谣言却在上演。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89fee88abb92504efba975eec92b68a3\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">New recommendation: Dropbox<blockquote>新推荐：Dropbox</blockquote>Another stock with heavy option activity has been DropboxDBX,+1.06%.The activist investor Elliot Group has taken a stake and will push the company to pursue strategies that increase its stock price in the short term. One rumor is a merger with rival BoxBOX,+1.78%.<blockquote>另一只期权活跃的股票是DropboxDBX，+1.06%。激进投资者Elliot Group已入股，并将推动该公司采取短期内提高股价的策略。有传言称将与竞争对手BoxBOX合并，+1.78%。</blockquote>Dropbox probed up to a three-year high on the news, but then fell back. So we are going to use a contingent recommendation here also:<blockquote>受此消息影响，Dropbox一度触及三年高点，但随后回落。因此，我们将在这里使用一个或有建议：</blockquote>IF DBX closes above 28.50, THEN buy 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls<blockquote>如果DBX收盘高于28.50，那么买入4 DBX 7月（16日）28日评级</blockquote>If these calls are bought, we will hold without a stop initially and see if the activist investor can accomplish something.<blockquote>如果这些评级被买入，我们最初会不停地持有，看看激进投资者是否能有所成就。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdc61a08d1269de554b35f4ced78a776\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有停止都是精神关闭停止。</blockquote>Long 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4320 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.<blockquote>多头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（11日）410看跌期权空头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（11日）385看跌期权：进行这笔交易是因为5月12日SPX下跌至4105点时出现了MVB卖出信号。它将被SPX再次收于+4 σ波段上方止损，该波段位于4320点并横盘整理。如果SPX在-4 σ区间交易，该信号将达到其利润目标。目前，较低的波段在4020点左右，正在横盘整理。如果SPX在任何时候交易于4000点，则卖出该头寸的一半。</blockquote>Long 1 SPY June (18th) 420 put and short 1 SPY Jun (18th) 400 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPY trades at the lower strike at any time.<blockquote>多头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）420看跌空头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）400看跌：该建议基于现有的纯股票看跌看涨期权比率卖出信号。只要仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率处于卖出信号，我们就将持有这一建议。因此，我们将每周更新状态。如果SPDR标普500指数ETF在任何时候都以较低的罢工价格进行交易，则向下滚动头寸，每边20次罢工。</blockquote>Long 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.<blockquote>龙3德6月（18日）100评级：在我们等待激进投资者产生积极结果时，不要停止持有。</blockquote>Long 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices).<blockquote>多2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）415评级空2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）428评级：该价差是在5月21日最新的VIX“尖峰”买入信号得到确认时买入的。如果VIX回到飙升模式，也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短的时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），它将被止损。</blockquote>Long 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,-0.14%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian NationalCNI,+0.66%.The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. So, with CNI at 112, the deal is worth $326. Of course, there will be regulatory delays. We are going to hold to see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian PacificCP,-0.14%—the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer or not. Finally, stop out the calls if CNI closes at 108 or lower.<blockquote>龙1 KSU 6月（18日）300看涨期权：堪萨斯城南方KSU,-0.14%已正式接受加拿大国家CNI,+0.66%的更高收购要约。该交易的价格为200美元现金+1.129股CNI股票。因此，CNI为112，这笔交易价值326美元。当然，也会有监管上的延迟。我们将持有，看看这种利差是否会有所收紧。目前尚不清楚另一家竞购者Canadian PacificCP(-0.14%)是否会提出更好的报价。最后，如果CNI收于108或更低，则止损评级。</blockquote>Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPXtradesat 437, roll the calls up from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll the puts down to the 403 strike.<blockquote>做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看涨期权和做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看跌：这种多头跨式交易是在预期SPX将从420水平波动移动的情况下进行的。如果SPX贸易在437时，将评级从420罢工向上滚动到437罢工（或最接近该罢工）。相反，如果SPX交易价格为403，则将看跌期权降至403执行价。</blockquote>Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:Hold without a stop while takeover rumors persist.<blockquote>龙4 CERN 6月（18日）80评级：在收购传言持续存在的情况下，不要停止持有。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/so-many-bullish-signs-for-this-stock-market-except-the-most-important-one-01622734536?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/so-many-bullish-signs-for-this-stock-market-except-the-most-important-one-01622734536?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191872806","content_text":"S&P 500 bulls keep failing to take control.The S&P 500 indexSPX,+0.88%probed up to – but not beyond – its all-time highs at 4238. The failure to break through to new highs this week gives the bears another chance.The broader picture is that the index has been trading in a range between 4060 and 4238 for nearly two months. Given the length of time the S&P has spent inside this range, a breakout from the range should be significant.An aggressive way to deal with a trading range is to buy the market near the lows of the range and sell (short) the market near the top of the ranking, planning to reverse your position if the market does indeed break out of the range. A less aggressive trade is to buy straddles when SPX is near the top or bottom of the range, figuring that it will either break out or trade to the other side of the range.The S&P has been sitting near the top of the range since May 24. The longer it goes without breaking out to new all-time highs, the more likely it will trade down to the lower regions of the range.For the record, below the range there is support at 4000 and 3870, but it seems to me that if the lower of the range is broken, there will be a swift move lower to test those support levels. Also, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect, as noted at the upper right of the accompanying SPX chart.Equity-only put-call ratios are still on sell signals, at least according to the computer programs we use to analyze these charts. However, to the naked eye they are no longer rising (which places the sell signals in jeopardy). One can see that the standard ratio has taken a dip over the past couple of days (the dip being caused, in part, by extremely heavy call buying in the “short squeeze” stocks: AMC, BlackBerry, Beyond Meat etc.).There is a similar, but less obvious dip on the weighted chart. For now, the sell signals remain in place, but if this new pace of heavy call buying persists, these indicators could roll over to buy signals soon.Breadth has improved greatly in the last week or so. Both breadth oscillators are on buy signals. Moreover, they have moved into overbought territory, which is a good thing only if SPX can follow through and break out to the upside. In addition, the cumulative breadth indicators are trading at new all-time highs once again.New 52-week highs continue to easily outnumber new 52-week lows on the NYSE and elsewhere. Thus this indicator remains bullish. In fact, the number of new highs has expanded considerably and is near the extreme levels last seen in late February, but not seen for five years prior to that.The volatility “complex” is bullish on stocks, in general. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect, and the trend of VIXVIX,4.63%is downward. Traders are still reluctant to push VIX down to extremely low levels, but one can see from the accompanying chart that VIX is below both its 20-day and 200-day moving averages. As long as the trend of volatility is lower, that is bullish for stocks.Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains a bullish indicator for stocks. The VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through October. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward.In summary, there are mostly bullish indicators in place. However, the most important indicator – the price of the stock market itself – is not confirming this apparent bullishness. It needs to break out to new all-time highs to do so, and that has been lacking.We continue to expect a volatile move away from current levels – whether that entails a retracement to the lower end of the trading or a strong breakout to new all-time highs. Hence, we are employing trading range strategies, along with holding positions in line with confirmed signals from our indicators.New recommendation: Cornerstone OnDemandOption activity has increased dramatically in Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD,+3.39%as there are takeover rumors. The stock traded up to near-term resistance at 47 and then fell back. We are going to use a contingent recommendation here. In other words, we will only buy the CSOD call options if the contingency is fulfilled:IF CSOD closes above 47, THEN buy 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 callsIf the calls are bought, we will hold without a stop, while the rumors play out.New recommendation: DropboxAnother stock with heavy option activity has been DropboxDBX,+1.06%.The activist investor Elliot Group has taken a stake and will push the company to pursue strategies that increase its stock price in the short term. One rumor is a merger with rival BoxBOX,+1.78%.Dropbox probed up to a three-year high on the news, but then fell back. So we are going to use a contingent recommendation here also:IF DBX closes above 28.50, THEN buy 4 DBX July (16th) 28 callsIf these calls are bought, we will hold without a stop initially and see if the activist investor can accomplish something.Follow-up actionAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.Long 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4320 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.Long 1 SPY June (18th) 420 put and short 1 SPY Jun (18th) 400 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPY trades at the lower strike at any time.Long 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.Long 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices).Long 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,-0.14%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian NationalCNI,+0.66%.The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. So, with CNI at 112, the deal is worth $326. Of course, there will be regulatory delays. We are going to hold to see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian PacificCP,-0.14%—the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer or not. Finally, stop out the calls if CNI closes at 108 or lower.Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPXtradesat 437, roll the calls up from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll the puts down to the 403 strike.Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:Hold without a stop while takeover rumors persist.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4620286,"gmtCreate":1623082342694,"gmtModify":1635333348764,"authorId":3581982441889617,"author":{"id":3581982441889617,"idStr":"3581982441889617","authorId":3581982441889617,"name":"edamame","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63449ce6bfbebf6849034560328a7d39","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":114169387,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yes","text":"yes","html":"yes"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":114114402,"gmtCreate":1623056963206,"gmtModify":1634037418973,"author":{"id":"3571482211918385","authorId":"3571482211918385","name":"KTX","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7d2d6c9788fbae7ed024ed5ba7c58e4","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3571482211918385","idStr":"3571482211918385"},"htmlText":"Fake","listText":"Fake","text":"Fake","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114114402","repostId":1191872806,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191872806","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623054201,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191872806?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-07 16:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"So many bullish signs for this stock market — except the most important one<blockquote>这个股市有很多看涨迹象——除了最重要的一个</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191872806","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"S&P 500 bulls keep failing to take control.The S&P 500 indexSPX,+0.88%probed up to – but not beyond ","content":"S&amp;P 500 bulls keep failing to take control.The S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,+0.88%probed up to – but not beyond – its all-time highs at 4238. The failure to break through to new highs this week gives the bears another chance.<blockquote>标普500多头一直未能控制局面。标普500指数SPX,+0.88%触及（但未超过）4238点的历史高点。本周未能突破新高给了空头另一次机会。</blockquote>The broader picture is that the index has been trading in a range between 4060 and 4238 for nearly two months. Given the length of time the S&amp;P has spent inside this range, a breakout from the range should be significant.<blockquote>更广泛的情况是，该指数近两个月来一直在4060点至4238点之间交易。考虑到标准普尔指数在该区间内停留的时间长度，突破该区间应该意义重大。</blockquote>An aggressive way to deal with a trading range is to buy the market near the lows of the range and sell (short) the market near the top of the ranking, planning to reverse your position if the market does indeed break out of the range. A less aggressive trade is to buy straddles when SPX is near the top or bottom of the range, figuring that it will either break out or trade to the other side of the range.<blockquote>处理交易区间的一种激进方法是在区间低点附近买入市场，在排名顶部附近卖出（做空）市场，如果市场确实突破区间，计划反转您的头寸。不太激进的交易是当SPX接近该区间的顶部或底部时买入跨式交易，认为它要么会突破，要么交易到该区间的另一侧。</blockquote>The S&amp;P has been sitting near the top of the range since May 24. The longer it goes without breaking out to new all-time highs, the more likely it will trade down to the lower regions of the range.<blockquote>自5月24日以来，S&amp;P一直位于区间顶部附近。它没有突破历史新高的时间越长，就越有可能跌至该区间的较低区域。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b76daeb46d3b4588f3f20f6b007b4520\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">For the record, below the range there is support at 4000 and 3870, but it seems to me that if the lower of the range is broken, there will be a swift move lower to test those support levels. Also, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect, as noted at the upper right of the accompanying SPX chart.<blockquote>根据记录，该区间下方有4000点和3870点的支撑位，但在我看来，如果该区间的下限被突破，将会迅速走低以测试这些支撑位。此外，麦克米兰波动带(MVB)卖出信号仍然有效，如随附的SPX图表右上角所示。</blockquote>Equity-only put-call ratios are still on sell signals, at least according to the computer programs we use to analyze these charts. However, to the naked eye they are no longer rising (which places the sell signals in jeopardy). One can see that the standard ratio has taken a dip over the past couple of days (the dip being caused, in part, by extremely heavy call buying in the “short squeeze” stocks: AMC, BlackBerry, Beyond Meat etc.).<blockquote>仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率仍然是卖出信号，至少根据我们用来分析这些图表的计算机程序是这样。然而，肉眼看，它们不再上涨（这使得卖出信号处于危险之中）。人们可以看到，标准比率在过去几天有所下降（下降的部分原因是看涨期权大量买入“轧空”股票：AMC、黑莓、Beyond Meat等）。）.</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4a2d971772c195acca42723b2a23d37\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There is a similar, but less obvious dip on the weighted chart. For now, the sell signals remain in place, but if this new pace of heavy call buying persists, these indicators could roll over to buy signals soon.<blockquote>加权图上也有类似但不太明显的下降。目前，卖出信号仍然存在，但如果看涨期权大量买入的新步伐持续下去，这些指标可能很快就会转为买入信号。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60e1cdfdbb7193427ffba139a9b7b00\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Breadth has improved greatly in the last week or so. Both breadth oscillators are on buy signals. Moreover, they have moved into overbought territory, which is a good thing only if SPX can follow through and break out to the upside. In addition, the cumulative breadth indicators are trading at new all-time highs once again.<blockquote>广度在最近一周左右有了很大的改善。两个宽度振荡器都处于买入信号。此外，它们已经进入超买区域，只有当SPX能够坚持并向上突破时，这才是一件好事。此外，累计广度指标再次创下历史新高。</blockquote>New 52-week highs continue to easily outnumber new 52-week lows on the NYSE and elsewhere. Thus this indicator remains bullish. In fact, the number of new highs has expanded considerably and is near the extreme levels last seen in late February, but not seen for five years prior to that.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所和其他地方的52周新高继续轻松超过52周新低。因此该指标仍然看涨。事实上，新高的数量已大幅扩大，接近2月底出现的极端水平，但在此之前的五年中从未出现过。</blockquote>The volatility “complex” is bullish on stocks, in general. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect, and the trend of VIXVIX,4.63%is downward. Traders are still reluctant to push VIX down to extremely low levels, but one can see from the accompanying chart that VIX is below both its 20-day and 200-day moving averages. As long as the trend of volatility is lower, that is bullish for stocks.<blockquote>总体而言，波动性“复合体”看好股市。VIX“尖峰”买入信号仍然有效，VIXVIX，4.63%的趋势向下。交易员仍不愿将VIX压低至极低水平，但从附图中可以看出，VIX均低于20日和200日移动均线。只要波动率趋势较低，对股票来说就是看涨的。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac25caadad8b56159e600a98a4763f4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains a bullish indicator for stocks. The VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through October. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward.<blockquote>最后，波动性衍生品的构造仍然是股市的看涨指标。VIX期货的交易价格均高于VIX，期限结构在10月份之前向上倾斜。同样，CBOE波动率指数的期限结构向上倾斜。</blockquote>In summary, there are mostly bullish indicators in place. However, the most important indicator – the price of the stock market itself – is not confirming this apparent bullishness. It needs to break out to new all-time highs to do so, and that has been lacking.<blockquote>综上所述，看涨指标大多到位。然而，最重要的指标——股市本身的价格——并没有证实这种明显的看涨情绪。要做到这一点，它需要突破历史新高，而这一直是缺乏的。</blockquote>We continue to expect a volatile move away from current levels – whether that entails a retracement to the lower end of the trading or a strong breakout to new all-time highs. Hence, we are employing trading range strategies, along with holding positions in line with confirmed signals from our indicators.<blockquote>我们仍然预计当前水平将出现波动——无论是回撤至交易下限还是强劲突破至历史新高。因此，我们采用交易区间策略，并根据指标确认的信号持仓。</blockquote>New recommendation: Cornerstone OnDemand<blockquote>新推荐：Cornerstone OnDemand</blockquote>Option activity has increased dramatically in Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD,+3.39%as there are takeover rumors. The stock traded up to near-term resistance at 47 and then fell back. We are going to use a contingent recommendation here. In other words, we will only buy the CSOD call options if the contingency is fulfilled:<blockquote>由于有收购传闻，Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD的期权活动大幅增加，+3.39%。该股升至近期阻力位47，然后回落。我们将在这里使用一个或有推荐。换句话说，我们只有在满足或有事项的情况下才会购买CSOD看涨期权期权：</blockquote>IF CSOD closes above 47, THEN buy 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls<blockquote>如果CSOD收盘高于47，那么买入4 CSOD 7月（16日）47.5评级</blockquote>If the calls are bought, we will hold without a stop, while the rumors play out.<blockquote>如果评级被买入，我们将不停地持有，而谣言却在上演。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89fee88abb92504efba975eec92b68a3\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">New recommendation: Dropbox<blockquote>新推荐：Dropbox</blockquote>Another stock with heavy option activity has been DropboxDBX,+1.06%.The activist investor Elliot Group has taken a stake and will push the company to pursue strategies that increase its stock price in the short term. One rumor is a merger with rival BoxBOX,+1.78%.<blockquote>另一只期权活跃的股票是DropboxDBX，+1.06%。激进投资者Elliot Group已入股，并将推动该公司采取短期内提高股价的策略。有传言称将与竞争对手BoxBOX合并，+1.78%。</blockquote>Dropbox probed up to a three-year high on the news, but then fell back. So we are going to use a contingent recommendation here also:<blockquote>受此消息影响，Dropbox一度触及三年高点，但随后回落。因此，我们将在这里使用一个或有建议：</blockquote>IF DBX closes above 28.50, THEN buy 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls<blockquote>如果DBX收盘高于28.50，那么买入4 DBX 7月（16日）28日评级</blockquote>If these calls are bought, we will hold without a stop initially and see if the activist investor can accomplish something.<blockquote>如果这些评级被买入，我们最初会不停地持有，看看激进投资者是否能有所成就。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdc61a08d1269de554b35f4ced78a776\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有停止都是精神关闭停止。</blockquote>Long 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4320 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.<blockquote>多头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（11日）410看跌期权空头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（11日）385看跌期权：进行这笔交易是因为5月12日SPX下跌至4105点时出现了MVB卖出信号。它将被SPX再次收于+4 σ波段上方止损，该波段位于4320点并横盘整理。如果SPX在-4 σ区间交易，该信号将达到其利润目标。目前，较低的波段在4020点左右，正在横盘整理。如果SPX在任何时候交易于4000点，则卖出该头寸的一半。</blockquote>Long 1 SPY June (18th) 420 put and short 1 SPY Jun (18th) 400 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPY trades at the lower strike at any time.<blockquote>多头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）420看跌空头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）400看跌：该建议基于现有的纯股票看跌看涨期权比率卖出信号。只要仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率处于卖出信号，我们就将持有这一建议。因此，我们将每周更新状态。如果SPDR标普500指数ETF在任何时候都以较低的罢工价格进行交易，则向下滚动头寸，每边20次罢工。</blockquote>Long 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.<blockquote>龙3德6月（18日）100评级：在我们等待激进投资者产生积极结果时，不要停止持有。</blockquote>Long 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices).<blockquote>多2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）415评级空2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）428评级：该价差是在5月21日最新的VIX“尖峰”买入信号得到确认时买入的。如果VIX回到飙升模式，也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短的时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），它将被止损。</blockquote>Long 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,-0.14%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian NationalCNI,+0.66%.The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. So, with CNI at 112, the deal is worth $326. Of course, there will be regulatory delays. We are going to hold to see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian PacificCP,-0.14%—the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer or not. Finally, stop out the calls if CNI closes at 108 or lower.<blockquote>龙1 KSU 6月（18日）300看涨期权：堪萨斯城南方KSU,-0.14%已正式接受加拿大国家CNI,+0.66%的更高收购要约。该交易的价格为200美元现金+1.129股CNI股票。因此，CNI为112，这笔交易价值326美元。当然，也会有监管上的延迟。我们将持有，看看这种利差是否会有所收紧。目前尚不清楚另一家竞购者Canadian PacificCP(-0.14%)是否会提出更好的报价。最后，如果CNI收于108或更低，则止损评级。</blockquote>Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPXtradesat 437, roll the calls up from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll the puts down to the 403 strike.<blockquote>做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看涨期权和做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看跌：这种多头跨式交易是在预期SPX将从420水平波动移动的情况下进行的。如果SPX贸易在437时，将评级从420罢工向上滚动到437罢工（或最接近该罢工）。相反，如果SPX交易价格为403，则将看跌期权降至403执行价。</blockquote>Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:Hold without a stop while takeover rumors persist.<blockquote>龙4 CERN 6月（18日）80评级：在收购传言持续存在的情况下，不要停止持有。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>So many bullish signs for this stock market — except the most important one<blockquote>这个股市有很多看涨迹象——除了最重要的一个</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSo many bullish signs for this stock market — except the most important one<blockquote>这个股市有很多看涨迹象——除了最重要的一个</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-07 16:23\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nS&amp;P 500 bulls keep failing to take control.The S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,+0.88%probed up to – but not beyond – its all-time highs at 4238. The failure to break through to new highs this week gives the bears another chance.<blockquote>标普500多头一直未能控制局面。标普500指数SPX,+0.88%触及（但未超过）4238点的历史高点。本周未能突破新高给了空头另一次机会。</blockquote>The broader picture is that the index has been trading in a range between 4060 and 4238 for nearly two months. Given the length of time the S&amp;P has spent inside this range, a breakout from the range should be significant.<blockquote>更广泛的情况是，该指数近两个月来一直在4060点至4238点之间交易。考虑到标准普尔指数在该区间内停留的时间长度，突破该区间应该意义重大。</blockquote>An aggressive way to deal with a trading range is to buy the market near the lows of the range and sell (short) the market near the top of the ranking, planning to reverse your position if the market does indeed break out of the range. A less aggressive trade is to buy straddles when SPX is near the top or bottom of the range, figuring that it will either break out or trade to the other side of the range.<blockquote>处理交易区间的一种激进方法是在区间低点附近买入市场，在排名顶部附近卖出（做空）市场，如果市场确实突破区间，计划反转您的头寸。不太激进的交易是当SPX接近该区间的顶部或底部时买入跨式交易，认为它要么会突破，要么交易到该区间的另一侧。</blockquote>The S&amp;P has been sitting near the top of the range since May 24. The longer it goes without breaking out to new all-time highs, the more likely it will trade down to the lower regions of the range.<blockquote>自5月24日以来，S&amp;P一直位于区间顶部附近。它没有突破历史新高的时间越长，就越有可能跌至该区间的较低区域。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b76daeb46d3b4588f3f20f6b007b4520\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">For the record, below the range there is support at 4000 and 3870, but it seems to me that if the lower of the range is broken, there will be a swift move lower to test those support levels. Also, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect, as noted at the upper right of the accompanying SPX chart.<blockquote>根据记录，该区间下方有4000点和3870点的支撑位，但在我看来，如果该区间的下限被突破，将会迅速走低以测试这些支撑位。此外，麦克米兰波动带(MVB)卖出信号仍然有效，如随附的SPX图表右上角所示。</blockquote>Equity-only put-call ratios are still on sell signals, at least according to the computer programs we use to analyze these charts. However, to the naked eye they are no longer rising (which places the sell signals in jeopardy). One can see that the standard ratio has taken a dip over the past couple of days (the dip being caused, in part, by extremely heavy call buying in the “short squeeze” stocks: AMC, BlackBerry, Beyond Meat etc.).<blockquote>仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率仍然是卖出信号，至少根据我们用来分析这些图表的计算机程序是这样。然而，肉眼看，它们不再上涨（这使得卖出信号处于危险之中）。人们可以看到，标准比率在过去几天有所下降（下降的部分原因是看涨期权大量买入“轧空”股票：AMC、黑莓、Beyond Meat等）。）.</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4a2d971772c195acca42723b2a23d37\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There is a similar, but less obvious dip on the weighted chart. For now, the sell signals remain in place, but if this new pace of heavy call buying persists, these indicators could roll over to buy signals soon.<blockquote>加权图上也有类似但不太明显的下降。目前，卖出信号仍然存在，但如果看涨期权大量买入的新步伐持续下去，这些指标可能很快就会转为买入信号。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60e1cdfdbb7193427ffba139a9b7b00\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Breadth has improved greatly in the last week or so. Both breadth oscillators are on buy signals. Moreover, they have moved into overbought territory, which is a good thing only if SPX can follow through and break out to the upside. In addition, the cumulative breadth indicators are trading at new all-time highs once again.<blockquote>广度在最近一周左右有了很大的改善。两个宽度振荡器都处于买入信号。此外，它们已经进入超买区域，只有当SPX能够坚持并向上突破时，这才是一件好事。此外，累计广度指标再次创下历史新高。</blockquote>New 52-week highs continue to easily outnumber new 52-week lows on the NYSE and elsewhere. Thus this indicator remains bullish. In fact, the number of new highs has expanded considerably and is near the extreme levels last seen in late February, but not seen for five years prior to that.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所和其他地方的52周新高继续轻松超过52周新低。因此该指标仍然看涨。事实上，新高的数量已大幅扩大，接近2月底出现的极端水平，但在此之前的五年中从未出现过。</blockquote>The volatility “complex” is bullish on stocks, in general. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect, and the trend of VIXVIX,4.63%is downward. Traders are still reluctant to push VIX down to extremely low levels, but one can see from the accompanying chart that VIX is below both its 20-day and 200-day moving averages. As long as the trend of volatility is lower, that is bullish for stocks.<blockquote>总体而言，波动性“复合体”看好股市。VIX“尖峰”买入信号仍然有效，VIXVIX，4.63%的趋势向下。交易员仍不愿将VIX压低至极低水平，但从附图中可以看出，VIX均低于20日和200日移动均线。只要波动率趋势较低，对股票来说就是看涨的。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac25caadad8b56159e600a98a4763f4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains a bullish indicator for stocks. The VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through October. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward.<blockquote>最后，波动性衍生品的构造仍然是股市的看涨指标。VIX期货的交易价格均高于VIX，期限结构在10月份之前向上倾斜。同样，CBOE波动率指数的期限结构向上倾斜。</blockquote>In summary, there are mostly bullish indicators in place. However, the most important indicator – the price of the stock market itself – is not confirming this apparent bullishness. It needs to break out to new all-time highs to do so, and that has been lacking.<blockquote>综上所述，看涨指标大多到位。然而，最重要的指标——股市本身的价格——并没有证实这种明显的看涨情绪。要做到这一点，它需要突破历史新高，而这一直是缺乏的。</blockquote>We continue to expect a volatile move away from current levels – whether that entails a retracement to the lower end of the trading or a strong breakout to new all-time highs. Hence, we are employing trading range strategies, along with holding positions in line with confirmed signals from our indicators.<blockquote>我们仍然预计当前水平将出现波动——无论是回撤至交易下限还是强劲突破至历史新高。因此，我们采用交易区间策略，并根据指标确认的信号持仓。</blockquote>New recommendation: Cornerstone OnDemand<blockquote>新推荐：Cornerstone OnDemand</blockquote>Option activity has increased dramatically in Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD,+3.39%as there are takeover rumors. The stock traded up to near-term resistance at 47 and then fell back. We are going to use a contingent recommendation here. In other words, we will only buy the CSOD call options if the contingency is fulfilled:<blockquote>由于有收购传闻，Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD的期权活动大幅增加，+3.39%。该股升至近期阻力位47，然后回落。我们将在这里使用一个或有推荐。换句话说，我们只有在满足或有事项的情况下才会购买CSOD看涨期权期权：</blockquote>IF CSOD closes above 47, THEN buy 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls<blockquote>如果CSOD收盘高于47，那么买入4 CSOD 7月（16日）47.5评级</blockquote>If the calls are bought, we will hold without a stop, while the rumors play out.<blockquote>如果评级被买入，我们将不停地持有，而谣言却在上演。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89fee88abb92504efba975eec92b68a3\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">New recommendation: Dropbox<blockquote>新推荐：Dropbox</blockquote>Another stock with heavy option activity has been DropboxDBX,+1.06%.The activist investor Elliot Group has taken a stake and will push the company to pursue strategies that increase its stock price in the short term. One rumor is a merger with rival BoxBOX,+1.78%.<blockquote>另一只期权活跃的股票是DropboxDBX，+1.06%。激进投资者Elliot Group已入股，并将推动该公司采取短期内提高股价的策略。有传言称将与竞争对手BoxBOX合并，+1.78%。</blockquote>Dropbox probed up to a three-year high on the news, but then fell back. So we are going to use a contingent recommendation here also:<blockquote>受此消息影响，Dropbox一度触及三年高点，但随后回落。因此，我们将在这里使用一个或有建议：</blockquote>IF DBX closes above 28.50, THEN buy 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls<blockquote>如果DBX收盘高于28.50，那么买入4 DBX 7月（16日）28日评级</blockquote>If these calls are bought, we will hold without a stop initially and see if the activist investor can accomplish something.<blockquote>如果这些评级被买入，我们最初会不停地持有，看看激进投资者是否能有所成就。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdc61a08d1269de554b35f4ced78a776\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有停止都是精神关闭停止。</blockquote>Long 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4320 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.<blockquote>多头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（11日）410看跌期权空头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（11日）385看跌期权：进行这笔交易是因为5月12日SPX下跌至4105点时出现了MVB卖出信号。它将被SPX再次收于+4 σ波段上方止损，该波段位于4320点并横盘整理。如果SPX在-4 σ区间交易，该信号将达到其利润目标。目前，较低的波段在4020点左右，正在横盘整理。如果SPX在任何时候交易于4000点，则卖出该头寸的一半。</blockquote>Long 1 SPY June (18th) 420 put and short 1 SPY Jun (18th) 400 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPY trades at the lower strike at any time.<blockquote>多头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）420看跌空头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）400看跌：该建议基于现有的纯股票看跌看涨期权比率卖出信号。只要仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率处于卖出信号，我们就将持有这一建议。因此，我们将每周更新状态。如果SPDR标普500指数ETF在任何时候都以较低的罢工价格进行交易，则向下滚动头寸，每边20次罢工。</blockquote>Long 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.<blockquote>龙3德6月（18日）100评级：在我们等待激进投资者产生积极结果时，不要停止持有。</blockquote>Long 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices).<blockquote>多2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）415评级空2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）428评级：该价差是在5月21日最新的VIX“尖峰”买入信号得到确认时买入的。如果VIX回到飙升模式，也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短的时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），它将被止损。</blockquote>Long 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,-0.14%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian NationalCNI,+0.66%.The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. So, with CNI at 112, the deal is worth $326. Of course, there will be regulatory delays. We are going to hold to see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian PacificCP,-0.14%—the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer or not. Finally, stop out the calls if CNI closes at 108 or lower.<blockquote>龙1 KSU 6月（18日）300看涨期权：堪萨斯城南方KSU,-0.14%已正式接受加拿大国家CNI,+0.66%的更高收购要约。该交易的价格为200美元现金+1.129股CNI股票。因此，CNI为112，这笔交易价值326美元。当然，也会有监管上的延迟。我们将持有，看看这种利差是否会有所收紧。目前尚不清楚另一家竞购者Canadian PacificCP(-0.14%)是否会提出更好的报价。最后，如果CNI收于108或更低，则止损评级。</blockquote>Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPXtradesat 437, roll the calls up from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll the puts down to the 403 strike.<blockquote>做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看涨期权和做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看跌：这种多头跨式交易是在预期SPX将从420水平波动移动的情况下进行的。如果SPX贸易在437时，将评级从420罢工向上滚动到437罢工（或最接近该罢工）。相反，如果SPX交易价格为403，则将看跌期权降至403执行价。</blockquote>Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:Hold without a stop while takeover rumors persist.<blockquote>龙4 CERN 6月（18日）80评级：在收购传言持续存在的情况下，不要停止持有。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/so-many-bullish-signs-for-this-stock-market-except-the-most-important-one-01622734536?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/so-many-bullish-signs-for-this-stock-market-except-the-most-important-one-01622734536?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191872806","content_text":"S&P 500 bulls keep failing to take control.The S&P 500 indexSPX,+0.88%probed up to – but not beyond – its all-time highs at 4238. The failure to break through to new highs this week gives the bears another chance.The broader picture is that the index has been trading in a range between 4060 and 4238 for nearly two months. Given the length of time the S&P has spent inside this range, a breakout from the range should be significant.An aggressive way to deal with a trading range is to buy the market near the lows of the range and sell (short) the market near the top of the ranking, planning to reverse your position if the market does indeed break out of the range. A less aggressive trade is to buy straddles when SPX is near the top or bottom of the range, figuring that it will either break out or trade to the other side of the range.The S&P has been sitting near the top of the range since May 24. The longer it goes without breaking out to new all-time highs, the more likely it will trade down to the lower regions of the range.For the record, below the range there is support at 4000 and 3870, but it seems to me that if the lower of the range is broken, there will be a swift move lower to test those support levels. Also, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect, as noted at the upper right of the accompanying SPX chart.Equity-only put-call ratios are still on sell signals, at least according to the computer programs we use to analyze these charts. However, to the naked eye they are no longer rising (which places the sell signals in jeopardy). One can see that the standard ratio has taken a dip over the past couple of days (the dip being caused, in part, by extremely heavy call buying in the “short squeeze” stocks: AMC, BlackBerry, Beyond Meat etc.).There is a similar, but less obvious dip on the weighted chart. For now, the sell signals remain in place, but if this new pace of heavy call buying persists, these indicators could roll over to buy signals soon.Breadth has improved greatly in the last week or so. Both breadth oscillators are on buy signals. Moreover, they have moved into overbought territory, which is a good thing only if SPX can follow through and break out to the upside. In addition, the cumulative breadth indicators are trading at new all-time highs once again.New 52-week highs continue to easily outnumber new 52-week lows on the NYSE and elsewhere. Thus this indicator remains bullish. In fact, the number of new highs has expanded considerably and is near the extreme levels last seen in late February, but not seen for five years prior to that.The volatility “complex” is bullish on stocks, in general. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect, and the trend of VIXVIX,4.63%is downward. Traders are still reluctant to push VIX down to extremely low levels, but one can see from the accompanying chart that VIX is below both its 20-day and 200-day moving averages. As long as the trend of volatility is lower, that is bullish for stocks.Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains a bullish indicator for stocks. The VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through October. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward.In summary, there are mostly bullish indicators in place. However, the most important indicator – the price of the stock market itself – is not confirming this apparent bullishness. It needs to break out to new all-time highs to do so, and that has been lacking.We continue to expect a volatile move away from current levels – whether that entails a retracement to the lower end of the trading or a strong breakout to new all-time highs. Hence, we are employing trading range strategies, along with holding positions in line with confirmed signals from our indicators.New recommendation: Cornerstone OnDemandOption activity has increased dramatically in Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD,+3.39%as there are takeover rumors. The stock traded up to near-term resistance at 47 and then fell back. We are going to use a contingent recommendation here. In other words, we will only buy the CSOD call options if the contingency is fulfilled:IF CSOD closes above 47, THEN buy 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 callsIf the calls are bought, we will hold without a stop, while the rumors play out.New recommendation: DropboxAnother stock with heavy option activity has been DropboxDBX,+1.06%.The activist investor Elliot Group has taken a stake and will push the company to pursue strategies that increase its stock price in the short term. One rumor is a merger with rival BoxBOX,+1.78%.Dropbox probed up to a three-year high on the news, but then fell back. So we are going to use a contingent recommendation here also:IF DBX closes above 28.50, THEN buy 4 DBX July (16th) 28 callsIf these calls are bought, we will hold without a stop initially and see if the activist investor can accomplish something.Follow-up actionAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.Long 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4320 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.Long 1 SPY June (18th) 420 put and short 1 SPY Jun (18th) 400 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPY trades at the lower strike at any time.Long 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.Long 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices).Long 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,-0.14%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian NationalCNI,+0.66%.The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. So, with CNI at 112, the deal is worth $326. Of course, there will be regulatory delays. We are going to hold to see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian PacificCP,-0.14%—the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer or not. Finally, stop out the calls if CNI closes at 108 or lower.Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPXtradesat 437, roll the calls up from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll the puts down to the 403 strike.Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:Hold without a stop while takeover rumors persist.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":114130317,"gmtCreate":1623055993039,"gmtModify":1634095796794,"author":{"id":"3584427442291849","authorId":"3584427442291849","name":"WayneSing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ba5be2ddf8347d41eed59a863adfe57","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3584427442291849","idStr":"3584427442291849"},"htmlText":"like and comment thanks","listText":"like and comment thanks","text":"like and comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114130317","repostId":1191872806,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191872806","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623054201,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191872806?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-07 16:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"So many bullish signs for this stock market — except the most important one<blockquote>这个股市有很多看涨迹象——除了最重要的一个</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191872806","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"S&P 500 bulls keep failing to take control.The S&P 500 indexSPX,+0.88%probed up to – but not beyond ","content":"S&amp;P 500 bulls keep failing to take control.The S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,+0.88%probed up to – but not beyond – its all-time highs at 4238. The failure to break through to new highs this week gives the bears another chance.<blockquote>标普500多头一直未能控制局面。标普500指数SPX,+0.88%触及（但未超过）4238点的历史高点。本周未能突破新高给了空头另一次机会。</blockquote>The broader picture is that the index has been trading in a range between 4060 and 4238 for nearly two months. Given the length of time the S&amp;P has spent inside this range, a breakout from the range should be significant.<blockquote>更广泛的情况是，该指数近两个月来一直在4060点至4238点之间交易。考虑到标准普尔指数在该区间内停留的时间长度，突破该区间应该意义重大。</blockquote>An aggressive way to deal with a trading range is to buy the market near the lows of the range and sell (short) the market near the top of the ranking, planning to reverse your position if the market does indeed break out of the range. A less aggressive trade is to buy straddles when SPX is near the top or bottom of the range, figuring that it will either break out or trade to the other side of the range.<blockquote>处理交易区间的一种激进方法是在区间低点附近买入市场，在排名顶部附近卖出（做空）市场，如果市场确实突破区间，计划反转您的头寸。不太激进的交易是当SPX接近该区间的顶部或底部时买入跨式交易，认为它要么会突破，要么交易到该区间的另一侧。</blockquote>The S&amp;P has been sitting near the top of the range since May 24. The longer it goes without breaking out to new all-time highs, the more likely it will trade down to the lower regions of the range.<blockquote>自5月24日以来，S&amp;P一直位于区间顶部附近。它没有突破历史新高的时间越长，就越有可能跌至该区间的较低区域。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b76daeb46d3b4588f3f20f6b007b4520\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">For the record, below the range there is support at 4000 and 3870, but it seems to me that if the lower of the range is broken, there will be a swift move lower to test those support levels. Also, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect, as noted at the upper right of the accompanying SPX chart.<blockquote>根据记录，该区间下方有4000点和3870点的支撑位，但在我看来，如果该区间的下限被突破，将会迅速走低以测试这些支撑位。此外，麦克米兰波动带(MVB)卖出信号仍然有效，如随附的SPX图表右上角所示。</blockquote>Equity-only put-call ratios are still on sell signals, at least according to the computer programs we use to analyze these charts. However, to the naked eye they are no longer rising (which places the sell signals in jeopardy). One can see that the standard ratio has taken a dip over the past couple of days (the dip being caused, in part, by extremely heavy call buying in the “short squeeze” stocks: AMC, BlackBerry, Beyond Meat etc.).<blockquote>仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率仍然是卖出信号，至少根据我们用来分析这些图表的计算机程序是这样。然而，肉眼看，它们不再上涨（这使得卖出信号处于危险之中）。人们可以看到，标准比率在过去几天有所下降（下降的部分原因是看涨期权大量买入“轧空”股票：AMC、黑莓、Beyond Meat等）。）.</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4a2d971772c195acca42723b2a23d37\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There is a similar, but less obvious dip on the weighted chart. For now, the sell signals remain in place, but if this new pace of heavy call buying persists, these indicators could roll over to buy signals soon.<blockquote>加权图上也有类似但不太明显的下降。目前，卖出信号仍然存在，但如果看涨期权大量买入的新步伐持续下去，这些指标可能很快就会转为买入信号。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60e1cdfdbb7193427ffba139a9b7b00\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Breadth has improved greatly in the last week or so. Both breadth oscillators are on buy signals. Moreover, they have moved into overbought territory, which is a good thing only if SPX can follow through and break out to the upside. In addition, the cumulative breadth indicators are trading at new all-time highs once again.<blockquote>广度在最近一周左右有了很大的改善。两个宽度振荡器都处于买入信号。此外，它们已经进入超买区域，只有当SPX能够坚持并向上突破时，这才是一件好事。此外，累计广度指标再次创下历史新高。</blockquote>New 52-week highs continue to easily outnumber new 52-week lows on the NYSE and elsewhere. Thus this indicator remains bullish. In fact, the number of new highs has expanded considerably and is near the extreme levels last seen in late February, but not seen for five years prior to that.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所和其他地方的52周新高继续轻松超过52周新低。因此该指标仍然看涨。事实上，新高的数量已大幅扩大，接近2月底出现的极端水平，但在此之前的五年中从未出现过。</blockquote>The volatility “complex” is bullish on stocks, in general. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect, and the trend of VIXVIX,4.63%is downward. Traders are still reluctant to push VIX down to extremely low levels, but one can see from the accompanying chart that VIX is below both its 20-day and 200-day moving averages. As long as the trend of volatility is lower, that is bullish for stocks.<blockquote>总体而言，波动性“复合体”看好股市。VIX“尖峰”买入信号仍然有效，VIXVIX，4.63%的趋势向下。交易员仍不愿将VIX压低至极低水平，但从附图中可以看出，VIX均低于20日和200日移动均线。只要波动率趋势较低，对股票来说就是看涨的。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac25caadad8b56159e600a98a4763f4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains a bullish indicator for stocks. The VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through October. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward.<blockquote>最后，波动性衍生品的构造仍然是股市的看涨指标。VIX期货的交易价格均高于VIX，期限结构在10月份之前向上倾斜。同样，CBOE波动率指数的期限结构向上倾斜。</blockquote>In summary, there are mostly bullish indicators in place. However, the most important indicator – the price of the stock market itself – is not confirming this apparent bullishness. It needs to break out to new all-time highs to do so, and that has been lacking.<blockquote>综上所述，看涨指标大多到位。然而，最重要的指标——股市本身的价格——并没有证实这种明显的看涨情绪。要做到这一点，它需要突破历史新高，而这一直是缺乏的。</blockquote>We continue to expect a volatile move away from current levels – whether that entails a retracement to the lower end of the trading or a strong breakout to new all-time highs. Hence, we are employing trading range strategies, along with holding positions in line with confirmed signals from our indicators.<blockquote>我们仍然预计当前水平将出现波动——无论是回撤至交易下限还是强劲突破至历史新高。因此，我们采用交易区间策略，并根据指标确认的信号持仓。</blockquote>New recommendation: Cornerstone OnDemand<blockquote>新推荐：Cornerstone OnDemand</blockquote>Option activity has increased dramatically in Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD,+3.39%as there are takeover rumors. The stock traded up to near-term resistance at 47 and then fell back. We are going to use a contingent recommendation here. In other words, we will only buy the CSOD call options if the contingency is fulfilled:<blockquote>由于有收购传闻，Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD的期权活动大幅增加，+3.39%。该股升至近期阻力位47，然后回落。我们将在这里使用一个或有推荐。换句话说，我们只有在满足或有事项的情况下才会购买CSOD看涨期权期权：</blockquote>IF CSOD closes above 47, THEN buy 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls<blockquote>如果CSOD收盘高于47，那么买入4 CSOD 7月（16日）47.5评级</blockquote>If the calls are bought, we will hold without a stop, while the rumors play out.<blockquote>如果评级被买入，我们将不停地持有，而谣言却在上演。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89fee88abb92504efba975eec92b68a3\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">New recommendation: Dropbox<blockquote>新推荐：Dropbox</blockquote>Another stock with heavy option activity has been DropboxDBX,+1.06%.The activist investor Elliot Group has taken a stake and will push the company to pursue strategies that increase its stock price in the short term. One rumor is a merger with rival BoxBOX,+1.78%.<blockquote>另一只期权活跃的股票是DropboxDBX，+1.06%。激进投资者Elliot Group已入股，并将推动该公司采取短期内提高股价的策略。有传言称将与竞争对手BoxBOX合并，+1.78%。</blockquote>Dropbox probed up to a three-year high on the news, but then fell back. So we are going to use a contingent recommendation here also:<blockquote>受此消息影响，Dropbox一度触及三年高点，但随后回落。因此，我们将在这里使用一个或有建议：</blockquote>IF DBX closes above 28.50, THEN buy 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls<blockquote>如果DBX收盘高于28.50，那么买入4 DBX 7月（16日）28日评级</blockquote>If these calls are bought, we will hold without a stop initially and see if the activist investor can accomplish something.<blockquote>如果这些评级被买入，我们最初会不停地持有，看看激进投资者是否能有所成就。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdc61a08d1269de554b35f4ced78a776\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有停止都是精神关闭停止。</blockquote>Long 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4320 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.<blockquote>多头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（11日）410看跌期权空头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（11日）385看跌期权：进行这笔交易是因为5月12日SPX下跌至4105点时出现了MVB卖出信号。它将被SPX再次收于+4 σ波段上方止损，该波段位于4320点并横盘整理。如果SPX在-4 σ区间交易，该信号将达到其利润目标。目前，较低的波段在4020点左右，正在横盘整理。如果SPX在任何时候交易于4000点，则卖出该头寸的一半。</blockquote>Long 1 SPY June (18th) 420 put and short 1 SPY Jun (18th) 400 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPY trades at the lower strike at any time.<blockquote>多头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）420看跌空头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）400看跌：该建议基于现有的纯股票看跌看涨期权比率卖出信号。只要仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率处于卖出信号，我们就将持有这一建议。因此，我们将每周更新状态。如果SPDR标普500指数ETF在任何时候都以较低的罢工价格进行交易，则向下滚动头寸，每边20次罢工。</blockquote>Long 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.<blockquote>龙3德6月（18日）100评级：在我们等待激进投资者产生积极结果时，不要停止持有。</blockquote>Long 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices).<blockquote>多2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）415评级空2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）428评级：该价差是在5月21日最新的VIX“尖峰”买入信号得到确认时买入的。如果VIX回到飙升模式，也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短的时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），它将被止损。</blockquote>Long 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,-0.14%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian NationalCNI,+0.66%.The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. So, with CNI at 112, the deal is worth $326. Of course, there will be regulatory delays. We are going to hold to see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian PacificCP,-0.14%—the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer or not. Finally, stop out the calls if CNI closes at 108 or lower.<blockquote>龙1 KSU 6月（18日）300看涨期权：堪萨斯城南方KSU,-0.14%已正式接受加拿大国家CNI,+0.66%的更高收购要约。该交易的价格为200美元现金+1.129股CNI股票。因此，CNI为112，这笔交易价值326美元。当然，也会有监管上的延迟。我们将持有，看看这种利差是否会有所收紧。目前尚不清楚另一家竞购者Canadian PacificCP(-0.14%)是否会提出更好的报价。最后，如果CNI收于108或更低，则止损评级。</blockquote>Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPXtradesat 437, roll the calls up from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll the puts down to the 403 strike.<blockquote>做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看涨期权和做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看跌：这种多头跨式交易是在预期SPX将从420水平波动移动的情况下进行的。如果SPX贸易在437时，将评级从420罢工向上滚动到437罢工（或最接近该罢工）。相反，如果SPX交易价格为403，则将看跌期权降至403执行价。</blockquote>Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:Hold without a stop while takeover rumors persist.<blockquote>龙4 CERN 6月（18日）80评级：在收购传言持续存在的情况下，不要停止持有。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>So many bullish signs for this stock market — except the most important one<blockquote>这个股市有很多看涨迹象——除了最重要的一个</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSo many bullish signs for this stock market — except the most important one<blockquote>这个股市有很多看涨迹象——除了最重要的一个</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-07 16:23\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nS&amp;P 500 bulls keep failing to take control.The S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,+0.88%probed up to – but not beyond – its all-time highs at 4238. The failure to break through to new highs this week gives the bears another chance.<blockquote>标普500多头一直未能控制局面。标普500指数SPX,+0.88%触及（但未超过）4238点的历史高点。本周未能突破新高给了空头另一次机会。</blockquote>The broader picture is that the index has been trading in a range between 4060 and 4238 for nearly two months. Given the length of time the S&amp;P has spent inside this range, a breakout from the range should be significant.<blockquote>更广泛的情况是，该指数近两个月来一直在4060点至4238点之间交易。考虑到标准普尔指数在该区间内停留的时间长度，突破该区间应该意义重大。</blockquote>An aggressive way to deal with a trading range is to buy the market near the lows of the range and sell (short) the market near the top of the ranking, planning to reverse your position if the market does indeed break out of the range. A less aggressive trade is to buy straddles when SPX is near the top or bottom of the range, figuring that it will either break out or trade to the other side of the range.<blockquote>处理交易区间的一种激进方法是在区间低点附近买入市场，在排名顶部附近卖出（做空）市场，如果市场确实突破区间，计划反转您的头寸。不太激进的交易是当SPX接近该区间的顶部或底部时买入跨式交易，认为它要么会突破，要么交易到该区间的另一侧。</blockquote>The S&amp;P has been sitting near the top of the range since May 24. The longer it goes without breaking out to new all-time highs, the more likely it will trade down to the lower regions of the range.<blockquote>自5月24日以来，S&amp;P一直位于区间顶部附近。它没有突破历史新高的时间越长，就越有可能跌至该区间的较低区域。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b76daeb46d3b4588f3f20f6b007b4520\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">For the record, below the range there is support at 4000 and 3870, but it seems to me that if the lower of the range is broken, there will be a swift move lower to test those support levels. Also, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect, as noted at the upper right of the accompanying SPX chart.<blockquote>根据记录，该区间下方有4000点和3870点的支撑位，但在我看来，如果该区间的下限被突破，将会迅速走低以测试这些支撑位。此外，麦克米兰波动带(MVB)卖出信号仍然有效，如随附的SPX图表右上角所示。</blockquote>Equity-only put-call ratios are still on sell signals, at least according to the computer programs we use to analyze these charts. However, to the naked eye they are no longer rising (which places the sell signals in jeopardy). One can see that the standard ratio has taken a dip over the past couple of days (the dip being caused, in part, by extremely heavy call buying in the “short squeeze” stocks: AMC, BlackBerry, Beyond Meat etc.).<blockquote>仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率仍然是卖出信号，至少根据我们用来分析这些图表的计算机程序是这样。然而，肉眼看，它们不再上涨（这使得卖出信号处于危险之中）。人们可以看到，标准比率在过去几天有所下降（下降的部分原因是看涨期权大量买入“轧空”股票：AMC、黑莓、Beyond Meat等）。）.</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4a2d971772c195acca42723b2a23d37\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There is a similar, but less obvious dip on the weighted chart. For now, the sell signals remain in place, but if this new pace of heavy call buying persists, these indicators could roll over to buy signals soon.<blockquote>加权图上也有类似但不太明显的下降。目前，卖出信号仍然存在，但如果看涨期权大量买入的新步伐持续下去，这些指标可能很快就会转为买入信号。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60e1cdfdbb7193427ffba139a9b7b00\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Breadth has improved greatly in the last week or so. Both breadth oscillators are on buy signals. Moreover, they have moved into overbought territory, which is a good thing only if SPX can follow through and break out to the upside. In addition, the cumulative breadth indicators are trading at new all-time highs once again.<blockquote>广度在最近一周左右有了很大的改善。两个宽度振荡器都处于买入信号。此外，它们已经进入超买区域，只有当SPX能够坚持并向上突破时，这才是一件好事。此外，累计广度指标再次创下历史新高。</blockquote>New 52-week highs continue to easily outnumber new 52-week lows on the NYSE and elsewhere. Thus this indicator remains bullish. In fact, the number of new highs has expanded considerably and is near the extreme levels last seen in late February, but not seen for five years prior to that.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所和其他地方的52周新高继续轻松超过52周新低。因此该指标仍然看涨。事实上，新高的数量已大幅扩大，接近2月底出现的极端水平，但在此之前的五年中从未出现过。</blockquote>The volatility “complex” is bullish on stocks, in general. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect, and the trend of VIXVIX,4.63%is downward. Traders are still reluctant to push VIX down to extremely low levels, but one can see from the accompanying chart that VIX is below both its 20-day and 200-day moving averages. As long as the trend of volatility is lower, that is bullish for stocks.<blockquote>总体而言，波动性“复合体”看好股市。VIX“尖峰”买入信号仍然有效，VIXVIX，4.63%的趋势向下。交易员仍不愿将VIX压低至极低水平，但从附图中可以看出，VIX均低于20日和200日移动均线。只要波动率趋势较低，对股票来说就是看涨的。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac25caadad8b56159e600a98a4763f4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains a bullish indicator for stocks. The VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through October. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward.<blockquote>最后，波动性衍生品的构造仍然是股市的看涨指标。VIX期货的交易价格均高于VIX，期限结构在10月份之前向上倾斜。同样，CBOE波动率指数的期限结构向上倾斜。</blockquote>In summary, there are mostly bullish indicators in place. However, the most important indicator – the price of the stock market itself – is not confirming this apparent bullishness. It needs to break out to new all-time highs to do so, and that has been lacking.<blockquote>综上所述，看涨指标大多到位。然而，最重要的指标——股市本身的价格——并没有证实这种明显的看涨情绪。要做到这一点，它需要突破历史新高，而这一直是缺乏的。</blockquote>We continue to expect a volatile move away from current levels – whether that entails a retracement to the lower end of the trading or a strong breakout to new all-time highs. Hence, we are employing trading range strategies, along with holding positions in line with confirmed signals from our indicators.<blockquote>我们仍然预计当前水平将出现波动——无论是回撤至交易下限还是强劲突破至历史新高。因此，我们采用交易区间策略，并根据指标确认的信号持仓。</blockquote>New recommendation: Cornerstone OnDemand<blockquote>新推荐：Cornerstone OnDemand</blockquote>Option activity has increased dramatically in Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD,+3.39%as there are takeover rumors. The stock traded up to near-term resistance at 47 and then fell back. We are going to use a contingent recommendation here. In other words, we will only buy the CSOD call options if the contingency is fulfilled:<blockquote>由于有收购传闻，Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD的期权活动大幅增加，+3.39%。该股升至近期阻力位47，然后回落。我们将在这里使用一个或有推荐。换句话说，我们只有在满足或有事项的情况下才会购买CSOD看涨期权期权：</blockquote>IF CSOD closes above 47, THEN buy 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls<blockquote>如果CSOD收盘高于47，那么买入4 CSOD 7月（16日）47.5评级</blockquote>If the calls are bought, we will hold without a stop, while the rumors play out.<blockquote>如果评级被买入，我们将不停地持有，而谣言却在上演。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89fee88abb92504efba975eec92b68a3\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">New recommendation: Dropbox<blockquote>新推荐：Dropbox</blockquote>Another stock with heavy option activity has been DropboxDBX,+1.06%.The activist investor Elliot Group has taken a stake and will push the company to pursue strategies that increase its stock price in the short term. One rumor is a merger with rival BoxBOX,+1.78%.<blockquote>另一只期权活跃的股票是DropboxDBX，+1.06%。激进投资者Elliot Group已入股，并将推动该公司采取短期内提高股价的策略。有传言称将与竞争对手BoxBOX合并，+1.78%。</blockquote>Dropbox probed up to a three-year high on the news, but then fell back. So we are going to use a contingent recommendation here also:<blockquote>受此消息影响，Dropbox一度触及三年高点，但随后回落。因此，我们将在这里使用一个或有建议：</blockquote>IF DBX closes above 28.50, THEN buy 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls<blockquote>如果DBX收盘高于28.50，那么买入4 DBX 7月（16日）28日评级</blockquote>If these calls are bought, we will hold without a stop initially and see if the activist investor can accomplish something.<blockquote>如果这些评级被买入，我们最初会不停地持有，看看激进投资者是否能有所成就。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdc61a08d1269de554b35f4ced78a776\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有停止都是精神关闭停止。</blockquote>Long 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4320 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.<blockquote>多头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（11日）410看跌期权空头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（11日）385看跌期权：进行这笔交易是因为5月12日SPX下跌至4105点时出现了MVB卖出信号。它将被SPX再次收于+4 σ波段上方止损，该波段位于4320点并横盘整理。如果SPX在-4 σ区间交易，该信号将达到其利润目标。目前，较低的波段在4020点左右，正在横盘整理。如果SPX在任何时候交易于4000点，则卖出该头寸的一半。</blockquote>Long 1 SPY June (18th) 420 put and short 1 SPY Jun (18th) 400 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPY trades at the lower strike at any time.<blockquote>多头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）420看跌空头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）400看跌：该建议基于现有的纯股票看跌看涨期权比率卖出信号。只要仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率处于卖出信号，我们就将持有这一建议。因此，我们将每周更新状态。如果SPDR标普500指数ETF在任何时候都以较低的罢工价格进行交易，则向下滚动头寸，每边20次罢工。</blockquote>Long 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.<blockquote>龙3德6月（18日）100评级：在我们等待激进投资者产生积极结果时，不要停止持有。</blockquote>Long 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices).<blockquote>多2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）415评级空2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）428评级：该价差是在5月21日最新的VIX“尖峰”买入信号得到确认时买入的。如果VIX回到飙升模式，也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短的时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），它将被止损。</blockquote>Long 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,-0.14%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian NationalCNI,+0.66%.The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. So, with CNI at 112, the deal is worth $326. Of course, there will be regulatory delays. We are going to hold to see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian PacificCP,-0.14%—the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer or not. Finally, stop out the calls if CNI closes at 108 or lower.<blockquote>龙1 KSU 6月（18日）300看涨期权：堪萨斯城南方KSU,-0.14%已正式接受加拿大国家CNI,+0.66%的更高收购要约。该交易的价格为200美元现金+1.129股CNI股票。因此，CNI为112，这笔交易价值326美元。当然，也会有监管上的延迟。我们将持有，看看这种利差是否会有所收紧。目前尚不清楚另一家竞购者Canadian PacificCP(-0.14%)是否会提出更好的报价。最后，如果CNI收于108或更低，则止损评级。</blockquote>Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPXtradesat 437, roll the calls up from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll the puts down to the 403 strike.<blockquote>做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看涨期权和做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看跌：这种多头跨式交易是在预期SPX将从420水平波动移动的情况下进行的。如果SPX贸易在437时，将评级从420罢工向上滚动到437罢工（或最接近该罢工）。相反，如果SPX交易价格为403，则将看跌期权降至403执行价。</blockquote>Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:Hold without a stop while takeover rumors persist.<blockquote>龙4 CERN 6月（18日）80评级：在收购传言持续存在的情况下，不要停止持有。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/so-many-bullish-signs-for-this-stock-market-except-the-most-important-one-01622734536?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/so-many-bullish-signs-for-this-stock-market-except-the-most-important-one-01622734536?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191872806","content_text":"S&P 500 bulls keep failing to take control.The S&P 500 indexSPX,+0.88%probed up to – but not beyond – its all-time highs at 4238. The failure to break through to new highs this week gives the bears another chance.The broader picture is that the index has been trading in a range between 4060 and 4238 for nearly two months. Given the length of time the S&P has spent inside this range, a breakout from the range should be significant.An aggressive way to deal with a trading range is to buy the market near the lows of the range and sell (short) the market near the top of the ranking, planning to reverse your position if the market does indeed break out of the range. A less aggressive trade is to buy straddles when SPX is near the top or bottom of the range, figuring that it will either break out or trade to the other side of the range.The S&P has been sitting near the top of the range since May 24. The longer it goes without breaking out to new all-time highs, the more likely it will trade down to the lower regions of the range.For the record, below the range there is support at 4000 and 3870, but it seems to me that if the lower of the range is broken, there will be a swift move lower to test those support levels. Also, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect, as noted at the upper right of the accompanying SPX chart.Equity-only put-call ratios are still on sell signals, at least according to the computer programs we use to analyze these charts. However, to the naked eye they are no longer rising (which places the sell signals in jeopardy). One can see that the standard ratio has taken a dip over the past couple of days (the dip being caused, in part, by extremely heavy call buying in the “short squeeze” stocks: AMC, BlackBerry, Beyond Meat etc.).There is a similar, but less obvious dip on the weighted chart. For now, the sell signals remain in place, but if this new pace of heavy call buying persists, these indicators could roll over to buy signals soon.Breadth has improved greatly in the last week or so. Both breadth oscillators are on buy signals. Moreover, they have moved into overbought territory, which is a good thing only if SPX can follow through and break out to the upside. In addition, the cumulative breadth indicators are trading at new all-time highs once again.New 52-week highs continue to easily outnumber new 52-week lows on the NYSE and elsewhere. Thus this indicator remains bullish. In fact, the number of new highs has expanded considerably and is near the extreme levels last seen in late February, but not seen for five years prior to that.The volatility “complex” is bullish on stocks, in general. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect, and the trend of VIXVIX,4.63%is downward. Traders are still reluctant to push VIX down to extremely low levels, but one can see from the accompanying chart that VIX is below both its 20-day and 200-day moving averages. As long as the trend of volatility is lower, that is bullish for stocks.Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains a bullish indicator for stocks. The VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through October. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward.In summary, there are mostly bullish indicators in place. However, the most important indicator – the price of the stock market itself – is not confirming this apparent bullishness. It needs to break out to new all-time highs to do so, and that has been lacking.We continue to expect a volatile move away from current levels – whether that entails a retracement to the lower end of the trading or a strong breakout to new all-time highs. Hence, we are employing trading range strategies, along with holding positions in line with confirmed signals from our indicators.New recommendation: Cornerstone OnDemandOption activity has increased dramatically in Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD,+3.39%as there are takeover rumors. The stock traded up to near-term resistance at 47 and then fell back. We are going to use a contingent recommendation here. In other words, we will only buy the CSOD call options if the contingency is fulfilled:IF CSOD closes above 47, THEN buy 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 callsIf the calls are bought, we will hold without a stop, while the rumors play out.New recommendation: DropboxAnother stock with heavy option activity has been DropboxDBX,+1.06%.The activist investor Elliot Group has taken a stake and will push the company to pursue strategies that increase its stock price in the short term. One rumor is a merger with rival BoxBOX,+1.78%.Dropbox probed up to a three-year high on the news, but then fell back. So we are going to use a contingent recommendation here also:IF DBX closes above 28.50, THEN buy 4 DBX July (16th) 28 callsIf these calls are bought, we will hold without a stop initially and see if the activist investor can accomplish something.Follow-up actionAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.Long 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4320 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.Long 1 SPY June (18th) 420 put and short 1 SPY Jun (18th) 400 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPY trades at the lower strike at any time.Long 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.Long 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices).Long 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,-0.14%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian NationalCNI,+0.66%.The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. So, with CNI at 112, the deal is worth $326. Of course, there will be regulatory delays. We are going to hold to see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian PacificCP,-0.14%—the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer or not. Finally, stop out the calls if CNI closes at 108 or lower.Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPXtradesat 437, roll the calls up from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll the puts down to the 403 strike.Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:Hold without a stop while takeover rumors persist.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4614887,"gmtCreate":1623056449615,"gmtModify":1635333767335,"authorId":3569643178216945,"author":{"id":3569643178216945,"idStr":"3569643178216945","authorId":3569643178216945,"name":"堵神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cacee5ba5c333e51bfcd4bed94dada85","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":114130317,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"done.. please reply thanks 😊","text":"done.. please reply thanks 😊","html":"done.. please reply thanks 😊"},{"id":4615237,"gmtCreate":1623057828070,"gmtModify":1635333736003,"authorId":3571448024288156,"author":{"id":3571448024288156,"idStr":"3571448024288156","authorId":3571448024288156,"name":"Sing2me","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f485854808e05893440cba75ca2a8b6a","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":114130317,"type":1,"supId":4614887,"prevId":0,"content":"Done","text":"Done","html":"Done"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":114195586,"gmtCreate":1623055839745,"gmtModify":1634095798613,"author":{"id":"3576029059404897","authorId":"3576029059404897","name":"wc77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ece187c7197f1ec611a9df7730f776e","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3576029059404897","idStr":"3576029059404897"},"htmlText":"like and comment pls&nbsp;","listText":"like and comment pls&nbsp;","text":"like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114195586","repostId":1191872806,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191872806","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623054201,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191872806?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-07 16:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"So many bullish signs for this stock market — except the most important one<blockquote>这个股市有很多看涨迹象——除了最重要的一个</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191872806","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"S&P 500 bulls keep failing to take control.The S&P 500 indexSPX,+0.88%probed up to – but not beyond ","content":"S&amp;P 500 bulls keep failing to take control.The S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,+0.88%probed up to – but not beyond – its all-time highs at 4238. The failure to break through to new highs this week gives the bears another chance.<blockquote>标普500多头一直未能控制局面。标普500指数SPX,+0.88%触及（但未超过）4238点的历史高点。本周未能突破新高给了空头另一次机会。</blockquote>The broader picture is that the index has been trading in a range between 4060 and 4238 for nearly two months. Given the length of time the S&amp;P has spent inside this range, a breakout from the range should be significant.<blockquote>更广泛的情况是，该指数近两个月来一直在4060点至4238点之间交易。考虑到标准普尔指数在该区间内停留的时间长度，突破该区间应该意义重大。</blockquote>An aggressive way to deal with a trading range is to buy the market near the lows of the range and sell (short) the market near the top of the ranking, planning to reverse your position if the market does indeed break out of the range. A less aggressive trade is to buy straddles when SPX is near the top or bottom of the range, figuring that it will either break out or trade to the other side of the range.<blockquote>处理交易区间的一种激进方法是在区间低点附近买入市场，在排名顶部附近卖出（做空）市场，如果市场确实突破区间，计划反转您的头寸。不太激进的交易是当SPX接近该区间的顶部或底部时买入跨式交易，认为它要么会突破，要么交易到该区间的另一侧。</blockquote>The S&amp;P has been sitting near the top of the range since May 24. The longer it goes without breaking out to new all-time highs, the more likely it will trade down to the lower regions of the range.<blockquote>自5月24日以来，S&amp;P一直位于区间顶部附近。它没有突破历史新高的时间越长，就越有可能跌至该区间的较低区域。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b76daeb46d3b4588f3f20f6b007b4520\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">For the record, below the range there is support at 4000 and 3870, but it seems to me that if the lower of the range is broken, there will be a swift move lower to test those support levels. Also, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect, as noted at the upper right of the accompanying SPX chart.<blockquote>根据记录，该区间下方有4000点和3870点的支撑位，但在我看来，如果该区间的下限被突破，将会迅速走低以测试这些支撑位。此外，麦克米兰波动带(MVB)卖出信号仍然有效，如随附的SPX图表右上角所示。</blockquote>Equity-only put-call ratios are still on sell signals, at least according to the computer programs we use to analyze these charts. However, to the naked eye they are no longer rising (which places the sell signals in jeopardy). One can see that the standard ratio has taken a dip over the past couple of days (the dip being caused, in part, by extremely heavy call buying in the “short squeeze” stocks: AMC, BlackBerry, Beyond Meat etc.).<blockquote>仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率仍然是卖出信号，至少根据我们用来分析这些图表的计算机程序是这样。然而，肉眼看，它们不再上涨（这使得卖出信号处于危险之中）。人们可以看到，标准比率在过去几天有所下降（下降的部分原因是看涨期权大量买入“轧空”股票：AMC、黑莓、Beyond Meat等）。）.</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4a2d971772c195acca42723b2a23d37\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There is a similar, but less obvious dip on the weighted chart. For now, the sell signals remain in place, but if this new pace of heavy call buying persists, these indicators could roll over to buy signals soon.<blockquote>加权图上也有类似但不太明显的下降。目前，卖出信号仍然存在，但如果看涨期权大量买入的新步伐持续下去，这些指标可能很快就会转为买入信号。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60e1cdfdbb7193427ffba139a9b7b00\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Breadth has improved greatly in the last week or so. Both breadth oscillators are on buy signals. Moreover, they have moved into overbought territory, which is a good thing only if SPX can follow through and break out to the upside. In addition, the cumulative breadth indicators are trading at new all-time highs once again.<blockquote>广度在最近一周左右有了很大的改善。两个宽度振荡器都处于买入信号。此外，它们已经进入超买区域，只有当SPX能够坚持并向上突破时，这才是一件好事。此外，累计广度指标再次创下历史新高。</blockquote>New 52-week highs continue to easily outnumber new 52-week lows on the NYSE and elsewhere. Thus this indicator remains bullish. In fact, the number of new highs has expanded considerably and is near the extreme levels last seen in late February, but not seen for five years prior to that.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所和其他地方的52周新高继续轻松超过52周新低。因此该指标仍然看涨。事实上，新高的数量已大幅扩大，接近2月底出现的极端水平，但在此之前的五年中从未出现过。</blockquote>The volatility “complex” is bullish on stocks, in general. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect, and the trend of VIXVIX,4.63%is downward. Traders are still reluctant to push VIX down to extremely low levels, but one can see from the accompanying chart that VIX is below both its 20-day and 200-day moving averages. As long as the trend of volatility is lower, that is bullish for stocks.<blockquote>总体而言，波动性“复合体”看好股市。VIX“尖峰”买入信号仍然有效，VIXVIX，4.63%的趋势向下。交易员仍不愿将VIX压低至极低水平，但从附图中可以看出，VIX均低于20日和200日移动均线。只要波动率趋势较低，对股票来说就是看涨的。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac25caadad8b56159e600a98a4763f4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains a bullish indicator for stocks. The VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through October. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward.<blockquote>最后，波动性衍生品的构造仍然是股市的看涨指标。VIX期货的交易价格均高于VIX，期限结构在10月份之前向上倾斜。同样，CBOE波动率指数的期限结构向上倾斜。</blockquote>In summary, there are mostly bullish indicators in place. However, the most important indicator – the price of the stock market itself – is not confirming this apparent bullishness. It needs to break out to new all-time highs to do so, and that has been lacking.<blockquote>综上所述，看涨指标大多到位。然而，最重要的指标——股市本身的价格——并没有证实这种明显的看涨情绪。要做到这一点，它需要突破历史新高，而这一直是缺乏的。</blockquote>We continue to expect a volatile move away from current levels – whether that entails a retracement to the lower end of the trading or a strong breakout to new all-time highs. Hence, we are employing trading range strategies, along with holding positions in line with confirmed signals from our indicators.<blockquote>我们仍然预计当前水平将出现波动——无论是回撤至交易下限还是强劲突破至历史新高。因此，我们采用交易区间策略，并根据指标确认的信号持仓。</blockquote>New recommendation: Cornerstone OnDemand<blockquote>新推荐：Cornerstone OnDemand</blockquote>Option activity has increased dramatically in Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD,+3.39%as there are takeover rumors. The stock traded up to near-term resistance at 47 and then fell back. We are going to use a contingent recommendation here. In other words, we will only buy the CSOD call options if the contingency is fulfilled:<blockquote>由于有收购传闻，Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD的期权活动大幅增加，+3.39%。该股升至近期阻力位47，然后回落。我们将在这里使用一个或有推荐。换句话说，我们只有在满足或有事项的情况下才会购买CSOD看涨期权期权：</blockquote>IF CSOD closes above 47, THEN buy 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls<blockquote>如果CSOD收盘高于47，那么买入4 CSOD 7月（16日）47.5评级</blockquote>If the calls are bought, we will hold without a stop, while the rumors play out.<blockquote>如果评级被买入，我们将不停地持有，而谣言却在上演。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89fee88abb92504efba975eec92b68a3\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">New recommendation: Dropbox<blockquote>新推荐：Dropbox</blockquote>Another stock with heavy option activity has been DropboxDBX,+1.06%.The activist investor Elliot Group has taken a stake and will push the company to pursue strategies that increase its stock price in the short term. One rumor is a merger with rival BoxBOX,+1.78%.<blockquote>另一只期权活跃的股票是DropboxDBX，+1.06%。激进投资者Elliot Group已入股，并将推动该公司采取短期内提高股价的策略。有传言称将与竞争对手BoxBOX合并，+1.78%。</blockquote>Dropbox probed up to a three-year high on the news, but then fell back. So we are going to use a contingent recommendation here also:<blockquote>受此消息影响，Dropbox一度触及三年高点，但随后回落。因此，我们将在这里使用一个或有建议：</blockquote>IF DBX closes above 28.50, THEN buy 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls<blockquote>如果DBX收盘高于28.50，那么买入4 DBX 7月（16日）28日评级</blockquote>If these calls are bought, we will hold without a stop initially and see if the activist investor can accomplish something.<blockquote>如果这些评级被买入，我们最初会不停地持有，看看激进投资者是否能有所成就。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdc61a08d1269de554b35f4ced78a776\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有停止都是精神关闭停止。</blockquote>Long 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4320 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.<blockquote>多头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（11日）410看跌期权空头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（11日）385看跌期权：进行这笔交易是因为5月12日SPX下跌至4105点时出现了MVB卖出信号。它将被SPX再次收于+4 σ波段上方止损，该波段位于4320点并横盘整理。如果SPX在-4 σ区间交易，该信号将达到其利润目标。目前，较低的波段在4020点左右，正在横盘整理。如果SPX在任何时候交易于4000点，则卖出该头寸的一半。</blockquote>Long 1 SPY June (18th) 420 put and short 1 SPY Jun (18th) 400 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPY trades at the lower strike at any time.<blockquote>多头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）420看跌空头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）400看跌：该建议基于现有的纯股票看跌看涨期权比率卖出信号。只要仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率处于卖出信号，我们就将持有这一建议。因此，我们将每周更新状态。如果SPDR标普500指数ETF在任何时候都以较低的罢工价格进行交易，则向下滚动头寸，每边20次罢工。</blockquote>Long 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.<blockquote>龙3德6月（18日）100评级：在我们等待激进投资者产生积极结果时，不要停止持有。</blockquote>Long 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices).<blockquote>多2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）415评级空2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）428评级：该价差是在5月21日最新的VIX“尖峰”买入信号得到确认时买入的。如果VIX回到飙升模式，也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短的时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），它将被止损。</blockquote>Long 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,-0.14%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian NationalCNI,+0.66%.The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. So, with CNI at 112, the deal is worth $326. Of course, there will be regulatory delays. We are going to hold to see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian PacificCP,-0.14%—the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer or not. Finally, stop out the calls if CNI closes at 108 or lower.<blockquote>龙1 KSU 6月（18日）300看涨期权：堪萨斯城南方KSU,-0.14%已正式接受加拿大国家CNI,+0.66%的更高收购要约。该交易的价格为200美元现金+1.129股CNI股票。因此，CNI为112，这笔交易价值326美元。当然，也会有监管上的延迟。我们将持有，看看这种利差是否会有所收紧。目前尚不清楚另一家竞购者Canadian PacificCP(-0.14%)是否会提出更好的报价。最后，如果CNI收于108或更低，则止损评级。</blockquote>Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPXtradesat 437, roll the calls up from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll the puts down to the 403 strike.<blockquote>做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看涨期权和做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看跌：这种多头跨式交易是在预期SPX将从420水平波动移动的情况下进行的。如果SPX贸易在437时，将评级从420罢工向上滚动到437罢工（或最接近该罢工）。相反，如果SPX交易价格为403，则将看跌期权降至403执行价。</blockquote>Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:Hold without a stop while takeover rumors persist.<blockquote>龙4 CERN 6月（18日）80评级：在收购传言持续存在的情况下，不要停止持有。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>So many bullish signs for this stock market — except the most important one<blockquote>这个股市有很多看涨迹象——除了最重要的一个</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSo many bullish signs for this stock market — except the most important one<blockquote>这个股市有很多看涨迹象——除了最重要的一个</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-07 16:23\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nS&amp;P 500 bulls keep failing to take control.The S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,+0.88%probed up to – but not beyond – its all-time highs at 4238. The failure to break through to new highs this week gives the bears another chance.<blockquote>标普500多头一直未能控制局面。标普500指数SPX,+0.88%触及（但未超过）4238点的历史高点。本周未能突破新高给了空头另一次机会。</blockquote>The broader picture is that the index has been trading in a range between 4060 and 4238 for nearly two months. Given the length of time the S&amp;P has spent inside this range, a breakout from the range should be significant.<blockquote>更广泛的情况是，该指数近两个月来一直在4060点至4238点之间交易。考虑到标准普尔指数在该区间内停留的时间长度，突破该区间应该意义重大。</blockquote>An aggressive way to deal with a trading range is to buy the market near the lows of the range and sell (short) the market near the top of the ranking, planning to reverse your position if the market does indeed break out of the range. A less aggressive trade is to buy straddles when SPX is near the top or bottom of the range, figuring that it will either break out or trade to the other side of the range.<blockquote>处理交易区间的一种激进方法是在区间低点附近买入市场，在排名顶部附近卖出（做空）市场，如果市场确实突破区间，计划反转您的头寸。不太激进的交易是当SPX接近该区间的顶部或底部时买入跨式交易，认为它要么会突破，要么交易到该区间的另一侧。</blockquote>The S&amp;P has been sitting near the top of the range since May 24. The longer it goes without breaking out to new all-time highs, the more likely it will trade down to the lower regions of the range.<blockquote>自5月24日以来，S&amp;P一直位于区间顶部附近。它没有突破历史新高的时间越长，就越有可能跌至该区间的较低区域。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b76daeb46d3b4588f3f20f6b007b4520\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">For the record, below the range there is support at 4000 and 3870, but it seems to me that if the lower of the range is broken, there will be a swift move lower to test those support levels. Also, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect, as noted at the upper right of the accompanying SPX chart.<blockquote>根据记录，该区间下方有4000点和3870点的支撑位，但在我看来，如果该区间的下限被突破，将会迅速走低以测试这些支撑位。此外，麦克米兰波动带(MVB)卖出信号仍然有效，如随附的SPX图表右上角所示。</blockquote>Equity-only put-call ratios are still on sell signals, at least according to the computer programs we use to analyze these charts. However, to the naked eye they are no longer rising (which places the sell signals in jeopardy). One can see that the standard ratio has taken a dip over the past couple of days (the dip being caused, in part, by extremely heavy call buying in the “short squeeze” stocks: AMC, BlackBerry, Beyond Meat etc.).<blockquote>仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率仍然是卖出信号，至少根据我们用来分析这些图表的计算机程序是这样。然而，肉眼看，它们不再上涨（这使得卖出信号处于危险之中）。人们可以看到，标准比率在过去几天有所下降（下降的部分原因是看涨期权大量买入“轧空”股票：AMC、黑莓、Beyond Meat等）。）.</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4a2d971772c195acca42723b2a23d37\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There is a similar, but less obvious dip on the weighted chart. For now, the sell signals remain in place, but if this new pace of heavy call buying persists, these indicators could roll over to buy signals soon.<blockquote>加权图上也有类似但不太明显的下降。目前，卖出信号仍然存在，但如果看涨期权大量买入的新步伐持续下去，这些指标可能很快就会转为买入信号。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60e1cdfdbb7193427ffba139a9b7b00\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Breadth has improved greatly in the last week or so. Both breadth oscillators are on buy signals. Moreover, they have moved into overbought territory, which is a good thing only if SPX can follow through and break out to the upside. In addition, the cumulative breadth indicators are trading at new all-time highs once again.<blockquote>广度在最近一周左右有了很大的改善。两个宽度振荡器都处于买入信号。此外，它们已经进入超买区域，只有当SPX能够坚持并向上突破时，这才是一件好事。此外，累计广度指标再次创下历史新高。</blockquote>New 52-week highs continue to easily outnumber new 52-week lows on the NYSE and elsewhere. Thus this indicator remains bullish. In fact, the number of new highs has expanded considerably and is near the extreme levels last seen in late February, but not seen for five years prior to that.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所和其他地方的52周新高继续轻松超过52周新低。因此该指标仍然看涨。事实上，新高的数量已大幅扩大，接近2月底出现的极端水平，但在此之前的五年中从未出现过。</blockquote>The volatility “complex” is bullish on stocks, in general. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect, and the trend of VIXVIX,4.63%is downward. Traders are still reluctant to push VIX down to extremely low levels, but one can see from the accompanying chart that VIX is below both its 20-day and 200-day moving averages. As long as the trend of volatility is lower, that is bullish for stocks.<blockquote>总体而言，波动性“复合体”看好股市。VIX“尖峰”买入信号仍然有效，VIXVIX，4.63%的趋势向下。交易员仍不愿将VIX压低至极低水平，但从附图中可以看出，VIX均低于20日和200日移动均线。只要波动率趋势较低，对股票来说就是看涨的。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac25caadad8b56159e600a98a4763f4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains a bullish indicator for stocks. The VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through October. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward.<blockquote>最后，波动性衍生品的构造仍然是股市的看涨指标。VIX期货的交易价格均高于VIX，期限结构在10月份之前向上倾斜。同样，CBOE波动率指数的期限结构向上倾斜。</blockquote>In summary, there are mostly bullish indicators in place. However, the most important indicator – the price of the stock market itself – is not confirming this apparent bullishness. It needs to break out to new all-time highs to do so, and that has been lacking.<blockquote>综上所述，看涨指标大多到位。然而，最重要的指标——股市本身的价格——并没有证实这种明显的看涨情绪。要做到这一点，它需要突破历史新高，而这一直是缺乏的。</blockquote>We continue to expect a volatile move away from current levels – whether that entails a retracement to the lower end of the trading or a strong breakout to new all-time highs. Hence, we are employing trading range strategies, along with holding positions in line with confirmed signals from our indicators.<blockquote>我们仍然预计当前水平将出现波动——无论是回撤至交易下限还是强劲突破至历史新高。因此，我们采用交易区间策略，并根据指标确认的信号持仓。</blockquote>New recommendation: Cornerstone OnDemand<blockquote>新推荐：Cornerstone OnDemand</blockquote>Option activity has increased dramatically in Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD,+3.39%as there are takeover rumors. The stock traded up to near-term resistance at 47 and then fell back. We are going to use a contingent recommendation here. In other words, we will only buy the CSOD call options if the contingency is fulfilled:<blockquote>由于有收购传闻，Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD的期权活动大幅增加，+3.39%。该股升至近期阻力位47，然后回落。我们将在这里使用一个或有推荐。换句话说，我们只有在满足或有事项的情况下才会购买CSOD看涨期权期权：</blockquote>IF CSOD closes above 47, THEN buy 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls<blockquote>如果CSOD收盘高于47，那么买入4 CSOD 7月（16日）47.5评级</blockquote>If the calls are bought, we will hold without a stop, while the rumors play out.<blockquote>如果评级被买入，我们将不停地持有，而谣言却在上演。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89fee88abb92504efba975eec92b68a3\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">New recommendation: Dropbox<blockquote>新推荐：Dropbox</blockquote>Another stock with heavy option activity has been DropboxDBX,+1.06%.The activist investor Elliot Group has taken a stake and will push the company to pursue strategies that increase its stock price in the short term. One rumor is a merger with rival BoxBOX,+1.78%.<blockquote>另一只期权活跃的股票是DropboxDBX，+1.06%。激进投资者Elliot Group已入股，并将推动该公司采取短期内提高股价的策略。有传言称将与竞争对手BoxBOX合并，+1.78%。</blockquote>Dropbox probed up to a three-year high on the news, but then fell back. So we are going to use a contingent recommendation here also:<blockquote>受此消息影响，Dropbox一度触及三年高点，但随后回落。因此，我们将在这里使用一个或有建议：</blockquote>IF DBX closes above 28.50, THEN buy 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls<blockquote>如果DBX收盘高于28.50，那么买入4 DBX 7月（16日）28日评级</blockquote>If these calls are bought, we will hold without a stop initially and see if the activist investor can accomplish something.<blockquote>如果这些评级被买入，我们最初会不停地持有，看看激进投资者是否能有所成就。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdc61a08d1269de554b35f4ced78a776\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有停止都是精神关闭停止。</blockquote>Long 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4320 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.<blockquote>多头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（11日）410看跌期权空头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（11日）385看跌期权：进行这笔交易是因为5月12日SPX下跌至4105点时出现了MVB卖出信号。它将被SPX再次收于+4 σ波段上方止损，该波段位于4320点并横盘整理。如果SPX在-4 σ区间交易，该信号将达到其利润目标。目前，较低的波段在4020点左右，正在横盘整理。如果SPX在任何时候交易于4000点，则卖出该头寸的一半。</blockquote>Long 1 SPY June (18th) 420 put and short 1 SPY Jun (18th) 400 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPY trades at the lower strike at any time.<blockquote>多头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）420看跌空头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）400看跌：该建议基于现有的纯股票看跌看涨期权比率卖出信号。只要仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率处于卖出信号，我们就将持有这一建议。因此，我们将每周更新状态。如果SPDR标普500指数ETF在任何时候都以较低的罢工价格进行交易，则向下滚动头寸，每边20次罢工。</blockquote>Long 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.<blockquote>龙3德6月（18日）100评级：在我们等待激进投资者产生积极结果时，不要停止持有。</blockquote>Long 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices).<blockquote>多2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）415评级空2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）428评级：该价差是在5月21日最新的VIX“尖峰”买入信号得到确认时买入的。如果VIX回到飙升模式，也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短的时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），它将被止损。</blockquote>Long 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,-0.14%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian NationalCNI,+0.66%.The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. So, with CNI at 112, the deal is worth $326. Of course, there will be regulatory delays. We are going to hold to see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian PacificCP,-0.14%—the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer or not. Finally, stop out the calls if CNI closes at 108 or lower.<blockquote>龙1 KSU 6月（18日）300看涨期权：堪萨斯城南方KSU,-0.14%已正式接受加拿大国家CNI,+0.66%的更高收购要约。该交易的价格为200美元现金+1.129股CNI股票。因此，CNI为112，这笔交易价值326美元。当然，也会有监管上的延迟。我们将持有，看看这种利差是否会有所收紧。目前尚不清楚另一家竞购者Canadian PacificCP(-0.14%)是否会提出更好的报价。最后，如果CNI收于108或更低，则止损评级。</blockquote>Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPXtradesat 437, roll the calls up from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll the puts down to the 403 strike.<blockquote>做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看涨期权和做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看跌：这种多头跨式交易是在预期SPX将从420水平波动移动的情况下进行的。如果SPX贸易在437时，将评级从420罢工向上滚动到437罢工（或最接近该罢工）。相反，如果SPX交易价格为403，则将看跌期权降至403执行价。</blockquote>Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:Hold without a stop while takeover rumors persist.<blockquote>龙4 CERN 6月（18日）80评级：在收购传言持续存在的情况下，不要停止持有。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/so-many-bullish-signs-for-this-stock-market-except-the-most-important-one-01622734536?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/so-many-bullish-signs-for-this-stock-market-except-the-most-important-one-01622734536?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191872806","content_text":"S&P 500 bulls keep failing to take control.The S&P 500 indexSPX,+0.88%probed up to – but not beyond – its all-time highs at 4238. The failure to break through to new highs this week gives the bears another chance.The broader picture is that the index has been trading in a range between 4060 and 4238 for nearly two months. Given the length of time the S&P has spent inside this range, a breakout from the range should be significant.An aggressive way to deal with a trading range is to buy the market near the lows of the range and sell (short) the market near the top of the ranking, planning to reverse your position if the market does indeed break out of the range. A less aggressive trade is to buy straddles when SPX is near the top or bottom of the range, figuring that it will either break out or trade to the other side of the range.The S&P has been sitting near the top of the range since May 24. The longer it goes without breaking out to new all-time highs, the more likely it will trade down to the lower regions of the range.For the record, below the range there is support at 4000 and 3870, but it seems to me that if the lower of the range is broken, there will be a swift move lower to test those support levels. Also, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect, as noted at the upper right of the accompanying SPX chart.Equity-only put-call ratios are still on sell signals, at least according to the computer programs we use to analyze these charts. However, to the naked eye they are no longer rising (which places the sell signals in jeopardy). One can see that the standard ratio has taken a dip over the past couple of days (the dip being caused, in part, by extremely heavy call buying in the “short squeeze” stocks: AMC, BlackBerry, Beyond Meat etc.).There is a similar, but less obvious dip on the weighted chart. For now, the sell signals remain in place, but if this new pace of heavy call buying persists, these indicators could roll over to buy signals soon.Breadth has improved greatly in the last week or so. Both breadth oscillators are on buy signals. Moreover, they have moved into overbought territory, which is a good thing only if SPX can follow through and break out to the upside. In addition, the cumulative breadth indicators are trading at new all-time highs once again.New 52-week highs continue to easily outnumber new 52-week lows on the NYSE and elsewhere. Thus this indicator remains bullish. In fact, the number of new highs has expanded considerably and is near the extreme levels last seen in late February, but not seen for five years prior to that.The volatility “complex” is bullish on stocks, in general. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect, and the trend of VIXVIX,4.63%is downward. Traders are still reluctant to push VIX down to extremely low levels, but one can see from the accompanying chart that VIX is below both its 20-day and 200-day moving averages. As long as the trend of volatility is lower, that is bullish for stocks.Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains a bullish indicator for stocks. The VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through October. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward.In summary, there are mostly bullish indicators in place. However, the most important indicator – the price of the stock market itself – is not confirming this apparent bullishness. It needs to break out to new all-time highs to do so, and that has been lacking.We continue to expect a volatile move away from current levels – whether that entails a retracement to the lower end of the trading or a strong breakout to new all-time highs. Hence, we are employing trading range strategies, along with holding positions in line with confirmed signals from our indicators.New recommendation: Cornerstone OnDemandOption activity has increased dramatically in Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD,+3.39%as there are takeover rumors. The stock traded up to near-term resistance at 47 and then fell back. We are going to use a contingent recommendation here. In other words, we will only buy the CSOD call options if the contingency is fulfilled:IF CSOD closes above 47, THEN buy 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 callsIf the calls are bought, we will hold without a stop, while the rumors play out.New recommendation: DropboxAnother stock with heavy option activity has been DropboxDBX,+1.06%.The activist investor Elliot Group has taken a stake and will push the company to pursue strategies that increase its stock price in the short term. One rumor is a merger with rival BoxBOX,+1.78%.Dropbox probed up to a three-year high on the news, but then fell back. So we are going to use a contingent recommendation here also:IF DBX closes above 28.50, THEN buy 4 DBX July (16th) 28 callsIf these calls are bought, we will hold without a stop initially and see if the activist investor can accomplish something.Follow-up actionAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.Long 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4320 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.Long 1 SPY June (18th) 420 put and short 1 SPY Jun (18th) 400 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPY trades at the lower strike at any time.Long 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.Long 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices).Long 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,-0.14%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian NationalCNI,+0.66%.The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. So, with CNI at 112, the deal is worth $326. Of course, there will be regulatory delays. We are going to hold to see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian PacificCP,-0.14%—the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer or not. Finally, stop out the calls if CNI closes at 108 or lower.Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPXtradesat 437, roll the calls up from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll the puts down to the 403 strike.Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:Hold without a stop while takeover rumors persist.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4614794,"gmtCreate":1623056003515,"gmtModify":1635333774606,"authorId":3584427442291849,"author":{"id":3584427442291849,"idStr":"3584427442291849","authorId":3584427442291849,"name":"WayneSing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ba5be2ddf8347d41eed59a863adfe57","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":114195586,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"please return on mine too","text":"please return on mine too","html":"please return on mine too"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":114198757,"gmtCreate":1623055706979,"gmtModify":1634095800210,"author":{"id":"3583131785133223","authorId":"3583131785133223","name":"Markzai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b51b4e3d3b531f3b6d27a4527babfb85","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3583131785133223","idStr":"3583131785133223"},"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114198757","repostId":1191872806,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191872806","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623054201,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191872806?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-07 16:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"So many bullish signs for this stock market — except the most important one<blockquote>这个股市有很多看涨迹象——除了最重要的一个</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191872806","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"S&P 500 bulls keep failing to take control.The S&P 500 indexSPX,+0.88%probed up to – but not beyond ","content":"S&amp;P 500 bulls keep failing to take control.The S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,+0.88%probed up to – but not beyond – its all-time highs at 4238. The failure to break through to new highs this week gives the bears another chance.<blockquote>标普500多头一直未能控制局面。标普500指数SPX,+0.88%触及（但未超过）4238点的历史高点。本周未能突破新高给了空头另一次机会。</blockquote>The broader picture is that the index has been trading in a range between 4060 and 4238 for nearly two months. Given the length of time the S&amp;P has spent inside this range, a breakout from the range should be significant.<blockquote>更广泛的情况是，该指数近两个月来一直在4060点至4238点之间交易。考虑到标准普尔指数在该区间内停留的时间长度，突破该区间应该意义重大。</blockquote>An aggressive way to deal with a trading range is to buy the market near the lows of the range and sell (short) the market near the top of the ranking, planning to reverse your position if the market does indeed break out of the range. A less aggressive trade is to buy straddles when SPX is near the top or bottom of the range, figuring that it will either break out or trade to the other side of the range.<blockquote>处理交易区间的一种激进方法是在区间低点附近买入市场，在排名顶部附近卖出（做空）市场，如果市场确实突破区间，计划反转您的头寸。不太激进的交易是当SPX接近该区间的顶部或底部时买入跨式交易，认为它要么会突破，要么交易到该区间的另一侧。</blockquote>The S&amp;P has been sitting near the top of the range since May 24. The longer it goes without breaking out to new all-time highs, the more likely it will trade down to the lower regions of the range.<blockquote>自5月24日以来，S&amp;P一直位于区间顶部附近。它没有突破历史新高的时间越长，就越有可能跌至该区间的较低区域。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b76daeb46d3b4588f3f20f6b007b4520\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">For the record, below the range there is support at 4000 and 3870, but it seems to me that if the lower of the range is broken, there will be a swift move lower to test those support levels. Also, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect, as noted at the upper right of the accompanying SPX chart.<blockquote>根据记录，该区间下方有4000点和3870点的支撑位，但在我看来，如果该区间的下限被突破，将会迅速走低以测试这些支撑位。此外，麦克米兰波动带(MVB)卖出信号仍然有效，如随附的SPX图表右上角所示。</blockquote>Equity-only put-call ratios are still on sell signals, at least according to the computer programs we use to analyze these charts. However, to the naked eye they are no longer rising (which places the sell signals in jeopardy). One can see that the standard ratio has taken a dip over the past couple of days (the dip being caused, in part, by extremely heavy call buying in the “short squeeze” stocks: AMC, BlackBerry, Beyond Meat etc.).<blockquote>仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率仍然是卖出信号，至少根据我们用来分析这些图表的计算机程序是这样。然而，肉眼看，它们不再上涨（这使得卖出信号处于危险之中）。人们可以看到，标准比率在过去几天有所下降（下降的部分原因是看涨期权大量买入“轧空”股票：AMC、黑莓、Beyond Meat等）。）.</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4a2d971772c195acca42723b2a23d37\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There is a similar, but less obvious dip on the weighted chart. For now, the sell signals remain in place, but if this new pace of heavy call buying persists, these indicators could roll over to buy signals soon.<blockquote>加权图上也有类似但不太明显的下降。目前，卖出信号仍然存在，但如果看涨期权大量买入的新步伐持续下去，这些指标可能很快就会转为买入信号。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60e1cdfdbb7193427ffba139a9b7b00\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Breadth has improved greatly in the last week or so. Both breadth oscillators are on buy signals. Moreover, they have moved into overbought territory, which is a good thing only if SPX can follow through and break out to the upside. In addition, the cumulative breadth indicators are trading at new all-time highs once again.<blockquote>广度在最近一周左右有了很大的改善。两个宽度振荡器都处于买入信号。此外，它们已经进入超买区域，只有当SPX能够坚持并向上突破时，这才是一件好事。此外，累计广度指标再次创下历史新高。</blockquote>New 52-week highs continue to easily outnumber new 52-week lows on the NYSE and elsewhere. Thus this indicator remains bullish. In fact, the number of new highs has expanded considerably and is near the extreme levels last seen in late February, but not seen for five years prior to that.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所和其他地方的52周新高继续轻松超过52周新低。因此该指标仍然看涨。事实上，新高的数量已大幅扩大，接近2月底出现的极端水平，但在此之前的五年中从未出现过。</blockquote>The volatility “complex” is bullish on stocks, in general. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect, and the trend of VIXVIX,4.63%is downward. Traders are still reluctant to push VIX down to extremely low levels, but one can see from the accompanying chart that VIX is below both its 20-day and 200-day moving averages. As long as the trend of volatility is lower, that is bullish for stocks.<blockquote>总体而言，波动性“复合体”看好股市。VIX“尖峰”买入信号仍然有效，VIXVIX，4.63%的趋势向下。交易员仍不愿将VIX压低至极低水平，但从附图中可以看出，VIX均低于20日和200日移动均线。只要波动率趋势较低，对股票来说就是看涨的。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac25caadad8b56159e600a98a4763f4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains a bullish indicator for stocks. The VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through October. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward.<blockquote>最后，波动性衍生品的构造仍然是股市的看涨指标。VIX期货的交易价格均高于VIX，期限结构在10月份之前向上倾斜。同样，CBOE波动率指数的期限结构向上倾斜。</blockquote>In summary, there are mostly bullish indicators in place. However, the most important indicator – the price of the stock market itself – is not confirming this apparent bullishness. It needs to break out to new all-time highs to do so, and that has been lacking.<blockquote>综上所述，看涨指标大多到位。然而，最重要的指标——股市本身的价格——并没有证实这种明显的看涨情绪。要做到这一点，它需要突破历史新高，而这一直是缺乏的。</blockquote>We continue to expect a volatile move away from current levels – whether that entails a retracement to the lower end of the trading or a strong breakout to new all-time highs. Hence, we are employing trading range strategies, along with holding positions in line with confirmed signals from our indicators.<blockquote>我们仍然预计当前水平将出现波动——无论是回撤至交易下限还是强劲突破至历史新高。因此，我们采用交易区间策略，并根据指标确认的信号持仓。</blockquote>New recommendation: Cornerstone OnDemand<blockquote>新推荐：Cornerstone OnDemand</blockquote>Option activity has increased dramatically in Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD,+3.39%as there are takeover rumors. The stock traded up to near-term resistance at 47 and then fell back. We are going to use a contingent recommendation here. In other words, we will only buy the CSOD call options if the contingency is fulfilled:<blockquote>由于有收购传闻，Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD的期权活动大幅增加，+3.39%。该股升至近期阻力位47，然后回落。我们将在这里使用一个或有推荐。换句话说，我们只有在满足或有事项的情况下才会购买CSOD看涨期权期权：</blockquote>IF CSOD closes above 47, THEN buy 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls<blockquote>如果CSOD收盘高于47，那么买入4 CSOD 7月（16日）47.5评级</blockquote>If the calls are bought, we will hold without a stop, while the rumors play out.<blockquote>如果评级被买入，我们将不停地持有，而谣言却在上演。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89fee88abb92504efba975eec92b68a3\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">New recommendation: Dropbox<blockquote>新推荐：Dropbox</blockquote>Another stock with heavy option activity has been DropboxDBX,+1.06%.The activist investor Elliot Group has taken a stake and will push the company to pursue strategies that increase its stock price in the short term. One rumor is a merger with rival BoxBOX,+1.78%.<blockquote>另一只期权活跃的股票是DropboxDBX，+1.06%。激进投资者Elliot Group已入股，并将推动该公司采取短期内提高股价的策略。有传言称将与竞争对手BoxBOX合并，+1.78%。</blockquote>Dropbox probed up to a three-year high on the news, but then fell back. So we are going to use a contingent recommendation here also:<blockquote>受此消息影响，Dropbox一度触及三年高点，但随后回落。因此，我们将在这里使用一个或有建议：</blockquote>IF DBX closes above 28.50, THEN buy 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls<blockquote>如果DBX收盘高于28.50，那么买入4 DBX 7月（16日）28日评级</blockquote>If these calls are bought, we will hold without a stop initially and see if the activist investor can accomplish something.<blockquote>如果这些评级被买入，我们最初会不停地持有，看看激进投资者是否能有所成就。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdc61a08d1269de554b35f4ced78a776\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有停止都是精神关闭停止。</blockquote>Long 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4320 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.<blockquote>多头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（11日）410看跌期权空头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（11日）385看跌期权：进行这笔交易是因为5月12日SPX下跌至4105点时出现了MVB卖出信号。它将被SPX再次收于+4 σ波段上方止损，该波段位于4320点并横盘整理。如果SPX在-4 σ区间交易，该信号将达到其利润目标。目前，较低的波段在4020点左右，正在横盘整理。如果SPX在任何时候交易于4000点，则卖出该头寸的一半。</blockquote>Long 1 SPY June (18th) 420 put and short 1 SPY Jun (18th) 400 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPY trades at the lower strike at any time.<blockquote>多头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）420看跌空头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）400看跌：该建议基于现有的纯股票看跌看涨期权比率卖出信号。只要仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率处于卖出信号，我们就将持有这一建议。因此，我们将每周更新状态。如果SPDR标普500指数ETF在任何时候都以较低的罢工价格进行交易，则向下滚动头寸，每边20次罢工。</blockquote>Long 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.<blockquote>龙3德6月（18日）100评级：在我们等待激进投资者产生积极结果时，不要停止持有。</blockquote>Long 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices).<blockquote>多2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）415评级空2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）428评级：该价差是在5月21日最新的VIX“尖峰”买入信号得到确认时买入的。如果VIX回到飙升模式，也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短的时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），它将被止损。</blockquote>Long 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,-0.14%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian NationalCNI,+0.66%.The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. So, with CNI at 112, the deal is worth $326. Of course, there will be regulatory delays. We are going to hold to see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian PacificCP,-0.14%—the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer or not. Finally, stop out the calls if CNI closes at 108 or lower.<blockquote>龙1 KSU 6月（18日）300看涨期权：堪萨斯城南方KSU,-0.14%已正式接受加拿大国家CNI,+0.66%的更高收购要约。该交易的价格为200美元现金+1.129股CNI股票。因此，CNI为112，这笔交易价值326美元。当然，也会有监管上的延迟。我们将持有，看看这种利差是否会有所收紧。目前尚不清楚另一家竞购者Canadian PacificCP(-0.14%)是否会提出更好的报价。最后，如果CNI收于108或更低，则止损评级。</blockquote>Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPXtradesat 437, roll the calls up from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll the puts down to the 403 strike.<blockquote>做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看涨期权和做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看跌：这种多头跨式交易是在预期SPX将从420水平波动移动的情况下进行的。如果SPX贸易在437时，将评级从420罢工向上滚动到437罢工（或最接近该罢工）。相反，如果SPX交易价格为403，则将看跌期权降至403执行价。</blockquote>Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:Hold without a stop while takeover rumors persist.<blockquote>龙4 CERN 6月（18日）80评级：在收购传言持续存在的情况下，不要停止持有。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>So many bullish signs for this stock market — except the most important one<blockquote>这个股市有很多看涨迹象——除了最重要的一个</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSo many bullish signs for this stock market — except the most important one<blockquote>这个股市有很多看涨迹象——除了最重要的一个</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-07 16:23\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nS&amp;P 500 bulls keep failing to take control.The S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,+0.88%probed up to – but not beyond – its all-time highs at 4238. The failure to break through to new highs this week gives the bears another chance.<blockquote>标普500多头一直未能控制局面。标普500指数SPX,+0.88%触及（但未超过）4238点的历史高点。本周未能突破新高给了空头另一次机会。</blockquote>The broader picture is that the index has been trading in a range between 4060 and 4238 for nearly two months. Given the length of time the S&amp;P has spent inside this range, a breakout from the range should be significant.<blockquote>更广泛的情况是，该指数近两个月来一直在4060点至4238点之间交易。考虑到标准普尔指数在该区间内停留的时间长度，突破该区间应该意义重大。</blockquote>An aggressive way to deal with a trading range is to buy the market near the lows of the range and sell (short) the market near the top of the ranking, planning to reverse your position if the market does indeed break out of the range. A less aggressive trade is to buy straddles when SPX is near the top or bottom of the range, figuring that it will either break out or trade to the other side of the range.<blockquote>处理交易区间的一种激进方法是在区间低点附近买入市场，在排名顶部附近卖出（做空）市场，如果市场确实突破区间，计划反转您的头寸。不太激进的交易是当SPX接近该区间的顶部或底部时买入跨式交易，认为它要么会突破，要么交易到该区间的另一侧。</blockquote>The S&amp;P has been sitting near the top of the range since May 24. The longer it goes without breaking out to new all-time highs, the more likely it will trade down to the lower regions of the range.<blockquote>自5月24日以来，S&amp;P一直位于区间顶部附近。它没有突破历史新高的时间越长，就越有可能跌至该区间的较低区域。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b76daeb46d3b4588f3f20f6b007b4520\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">For the record, below the range there is support at 4000 and 3870, but it seems to me that if the lower of the range is broken, there will be a swift move lower to test those support levels. Also, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect, as noted at the upper right of the accompanying SPX chart.<blockquote>根据记录，该区间下方有4000点和3870点的支撑位，但在我看来，如果该区间的下限被突破，将会迅速走低以测试这些支撑位。此外，麦克米兰波动带(MVB)卖出信号仍然有效，如随附的SPX图表右上角所示。</blockquote>Equity-only put-call ratios are still on sell signals, at least according to the computer programs we use to analyze these charts. However, to the naked eye they are no longer rising (which places the sell signals in jeopardy). One can see that the standard ratio has taken a dip over the past couple of days (the dip being caused, in part, by extremely heavy call buying in the “short squeeze” stocks: AMC, BlackBerry, Beyond Meat etc.).<blockquote>仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率仍然是卖出信号，至少根据我们用来分析这些图表的计算机程序是这样。然而，肉眼看，它们不再上涨（这使得卖出信号处于危险之中）。人们可以看到，标准比率在过去几天有所下降（下降的部分原因是看涨期权大量买入“轧空”股票：AMC、黑莓、Beyond Meat等）。）.</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4a2d971772c195acca42723b2a23d37\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There is a similar, but less obvious dip on the weighted chart. For now, the sell signals remain in place, but if this new pace of heavy call buying persists, these indicators could roll over to buy signals soon.<blockquote>加权图上也有类似但不太明显的下降。目前，卖出信号仍然存在，但如果看涨期权大量买入的新步伐持续下去，这些指标可能很快就会转为买入信号。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60e1cdfdbb7193427ffba139a9b7b00\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Breadth has improved greatly in the last week or so. Both breadth oscillators are on buy signals. Moreover, they have moved into overbought territory, which is a good thing only if SPX can follow through and break out to the upside. In addition, the cumulative breadth indicators are trading at new all-time highs once again.<blockquote>广度在最近一周左右有了很大的改善。两个宽度振荡器都处于买入信号。此外，它们已经进入超买区域，只有当SPX能够坚持并向上突破时，这才是一件好事。此外，累计广度指标再次创下历史新高。</blockquote>New 52-week highs continue to easily outnumber new 52-week lows on the NYSE and elsewhere. Thus this indicator remains bullish. In fact, the number of new highs has expanded considerably and is near the extreme levels last seen in late February, but not seen for five years prior to that.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所和其他地方的52周新高继续轻松超过52周新低。因此该指标仍然看涨。事实上，新高的数量已大幅扩大，接近2月底出现的极端水平，但在此之前的五年中从未出现过。</blockquote>The volatility “complex” is bullish on stocks, in general. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect, and the trend of VIXVIX,4.63%is downward. Traders are still reluctant to push VIX down to extremely low levels, but one can see from the accompanying chart that VIX is below both its 20-day and 200-day moving averages. As long as the trend of volatility is lower, that is bullish for stocks.<blockquote>总体而言，波动性“复合体”看好股市。VIX“尖峰”买入信号仍然有效，VIXVIX，4.63%的趋势向下。交易员仍不愿将VIX压低至极低水平，但从附图中可以看出，VIX均低于20日和200日移动均线。只要波动率趋势较低，对股票来说就是看涨的。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac25caadad8b56159e600a98a4763f4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains a bullish indicator for stocks. The VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through October. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward.<blockquote>最后，波动性衍生品的构造仍然是股市的看涨指标。VIX期货的交易价格均高于VIX，期限结构在10月份之前向上倾斜。同样，CBOE波动率指数的期限结构向上倾斜。</blockquote>In summary, there are mostly bullish indicators in place. However, the most important indicator – the price of the stock market itself – is not confirming this apparent bullishness. It needs to break out to new all-time highs to do so, and that has been lacking.<blockquote>综上所述，看涨指标大多到位。然而，最重要的指标——股市本身的价格——并没有证实这种明显的看涨情绪。要做到这一点，它需要突破历史新高，而这一直是缺乏的。</blockquote>We continue to expect a volatile move away from current levels – whether that entails a retracement to the lower end of the trading or a strong breakout to new all-time highs. Hence, we are employing trading range strategies, along with holding positions in line with confirmed signals from our indicators.<blockquote>我们仍然预计当前水平将出现波动——无论是回撤至交易下限还是强劲突破至历史新高。因此，我们采用交易区间策略，并根据指标确认的信号持仓。</blockquote>New recommendation: Cornerstone OnDemand<blockquote>新推荐：Cornerstone OnDemand</blockquote>Option activity has increased dramatically in Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD,+3.39%as there are takeover rumors. The stock traded up to near-term resistance at 47 and then fell back. We are going to use a contingent recommendation here. In other words, we will only buy the CSOD call options if the contingency is fulfilled:<blockquote>由于有收购传闻，Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD的期权活动大幅增加，+3.39%。该股升至近期阻力位47，然后回落。我们将在这里使用一个或有推荐。换句话说，我们只有在满足或有事项的情况下才会购买CSOD看涨期权期权：</blockquote>IF CSOD closes above 47, THEN buy 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls<blockquote>如果CSOD收盘高于47，那么买入4 CSOD 7月（16日）47.5评级</blockquote>If the calls are bought, we will hold without a stop, while the rumors play out.<blockquote>如果评级被买入，我们将不停地持有，而谣言却在上演。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89fee88abb92504efba975eec92b68a3\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">New recommendation: Dropbox<blockquote>新推荐：Dropbox</blockquote>Another stock with heavy option activity has been DropboxDBX,+1.06%.The activist investor Elliot Group has taken a stake and will push the company to pursue strategies that increase its stock price in the short term. One rumor is a merger with rival BoxBOX,+1.78%.<blockquote>另一只期权活跃的股票是DropboxDBX，+1.06%。激进投资者Elliot Group已入股，并将推动该公司采取短期内提高股价的策略。有传言称将与竞争对手BoxBOX合并，+1.78%。</blockquote>Dropbox probed up to a three-year high on the news, but then fell back. So we are going to use a contingent recommendation here also:<blockquote>受此消息影响，Dropbox一度触及三年高点，但随后回落。因此，我们将在这里使用一个或有建议：</blockquote>IF DBX closes above 28.50, THEN buy 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls<blockquote>如果DBX收盘高于28.50，那么买入4 DBX 7月（16日）28日评级</blockquote>If these calls are bought, we will hold without a stop initially and see if the activist investor can accomplish something.<blockquote>如果这些评级被买入，我们最初会不停地持有，看看激进投资者是否能有所成就。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdc61a08d1269de554b35f4ced78a776\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有停止都是精神关闭停止。</blockquote>Long 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4320 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.<blockquote>多头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（11日）410看跌期权空头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（11日）385看跌期权：进行这笔交易是因为5月12日SPX下跌至4105点时出现了MVB卖出信号。它将被SPX再次收于+4 σ波段上方止损，该波段位于4320点并横盘整理。如果SPX在-4 σ区间交易，该信号将达到其利润目标。目前，较低的波段在4020点左右，正在横盘整理。如果SPX在任何时候交易于4000点，则卖出该头寸的一半。</blockquote>Long 1 SPY June (18th) 420 put and short 1 SPY Jun (18th) 400 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPY trades at the lower strike at any time.<blockquote>多头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）420看跌空头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）400看跌：该建议基于现有的纯股票看跌看涨期权比率卖出信号。只要仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率处于卖出信号，我们就将持有这一建议。因此，我们将每周更新状态。如果SPDR标普500指数ETF在任何时候都以较低的罢工价格进行交易，则向下滚动头寸，每边20次罢工。</blockquote>Long 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.<blockquote>龙3德6月（18日）100评级：在我们等待激进投资者产生积极结果时，不要停止持有。</blockquote>Long 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices).<blockquote>多2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）415评级空2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）428评级：该价差是在5月21日最新的VIX“尖峰”买入信号得到确认时买入的。如果VIX回到飙升模式，也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短的时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），它将被止损。</blockquote>Long 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,-0.14%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian NationalCNI,+0.66%.The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. So, with CNI at 112, the deal is worth $326. Of course, there will be regulatory delays. We are going to hold to see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian PacificCP,-0.14%—the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer or not. Finally, stop out the calls if CNI closes at 108 or lower.<blockquote>龙1 KSU 6月（18日）300看涨期权：堪萨斯城南方KSU,-0.14%已正式接受加拿大国家CNI,+0.66%的更高收购要约。该交易的价格为200美元现金+1.129股CNI股票。因此，CNI为112，这笔交易价值326美元。当然，也会有监管上的延迟。我们将持有，看看这种利差是否会有所收紧。目前尚不清楚另一家竞购者Canadian PacificCP(-0.14%)是否会提出更好的报价。最后，如果CNI收于108或更低，则止损评级。</blockquote>Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPXtradesat 437, roll the calls up from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll the puts down to the 403 strike.<blockquote>做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看涨期权和做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看跌：这种多头跨式交易是在预期SPX将从420水平波动移动的情况下进行的。如果SPX贸易在437时，将评级从420罢工向上滚动到437罢工（或最接近该罢工）。相反，如果SPX交易价格为403，则将看跌期权降至403执行价。</blockquote>Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:Hold without a stop while takeover rumors persist.<blockquote>龙4 CERN 6月（18日）80评级：在收购传言持续存在的情况下，不要停止持有。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/so-many-bullish-signs-for-this-stock-market-except-the-most-important-one-01622734536?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/so-many-bullish-signs-for-this-stock-market-except-the-most-important-one-01622734536?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191872806","content_text":"S&P 500 bulls keep failing to take control.The S&P 500 indexSPX,+0.88%probed up to – but not beyond – its all-time highs at 4238. The failure to break through to new highs this week gives the bears another chance.The broader picture is that the index has been trading in a range between 4060 and 4238 for nearly two months. Given the length of time the S&P has spent inside this range, a breakout from the range should be significant.An aggressive way to deal with a trading range is to buy the market near the lows of the range and sell (short) the market near the top of the ranking, planning to reverse your position if the market does indeed break out of the range. A less aggressive trade is to buy straddles when SPX is near the top or bottom of the range, figuring that it will either break out or trade to the other side of the range.The S&P has been sitting near the top of the range since May 24. The longer it goes without breaking out to new all-time highs, the more likely it will trade down to the lower regions of the range.For the record, below the range there is support at 4000 and 3870, but it seems to me that if the lower of the range is broken, there will be a swift move lower to test those support levels. Also, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect, as noted at the upper right of the accompanying SPX chart.Equity-only put-call ratios are still on sell signals, at least according to the computer programs we use to analyze these charts. However, to the naked eye they are no longer rising (which places the sell signals in jeopardy). One can see that the standard ratio has taken a dip over the past couple of days (the dip being caused, in part, by extremely heavy call buying in the “short squeeze” stocks: AMC, BlackBerry, Beyond Meat etc.).There is a similar, but less obvious dip on the weighted chart. For now, the sell signals remain in place, but if this new pace of heavy call buying persists, these indicators could roll over to buy signals soon.Breadth has improved greatly in the last week or so. Both breadth oscillators are on buy signals. Moreover, they have moved into overbought territory, which is a good thing only if SPX can follow through and break out to the upside. In addition, the cumulative breadth indicators are trading at new all-time highs once again.New 52-week highs continue to easily outnumber new 52-week lows on the NYSE and elsewhere. Thus this indicator remains bullish. In fact, the number of new highs has expanded considerably and is near the extreme levels last seen in late February, but not seen for five years prior to that.The volatility “complex” is bullish on stocks, in general. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect, and the trend of VIXVIX,4.63%is downward. Traders are still reluctant to push VIX down to extremely low levels, but one can see from the accompanying chart that VIX is below both its 20-day and 200-day moving averages. As long as the trend of volatility is lower, that is bullish for stocks.Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains a bullish indicator for stocks. The VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through October. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward.In summary, there are mostly bullish indicators in place. However, the most important indicator – the price of the stock market itself – is not confirming this apparent bullishness. It needs to break out to new all-time highs to do so, and that has been lacking.We continue to expect a volatile move away from current levels – whether that entails a retracement to the lower end of the trading or a strong breakout to new all-time highs. Hence, we are employing trading range strategies, along with holding positions in line with confirmed signals from our indicators.New recommendation: Cornerstone OnDemandOption activity has increased dramatically in Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD,+3.39%as there are takeover rumors. The stock traded up to near-term resistance at 47 and then fell back. We are going to use a contingent recommendation here. In other words, we will only buy the CSOD call options if the contingency is fulfilled:IF CSOD closes above 47, THEN buy 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 callsIf the calls are bought, we will hold without a stop, while the rumors play out.New recommendation: DropboxAnother stock with heavy option activity has been DropboxDBX,+1.06%.The activist investor Elliot Group has taken a stake and will push the company to pursue strategies that increase its stock price in the short term. One rumor is a merger with rival BoxBOX,+1.78%.Dropbox probed up to a three-year high on the news, but then fell back. So we are going to use a contingent recommendation here also:IF DBX closes above 28.50, THEN buy 4 DBX July (16th) 28 callsIf these calls are bought, we will hold without a stop initially and see if the activist investor can accomplish something.Follow-up actionAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.Long 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4320 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.Long 1 SPY June (18th) 420 put and short 1 SPY Jun (18th) 400 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPY trades at the lower strike at any time.Long 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.Long 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices).Long 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,-0.14%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian NationalCNI,+0.66%.The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. So, with CNI at 112, the deal is worth $326. Of course, there will be regulatory delays. We are going to hold to see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian PacificCP,-0.14%—the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer or not. Finally, stop out the calls if CNI closes at 108 or lower.Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPXtradesat 437, roll the calls up from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll the puts down to the 403 strike.Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:Hold without a stop while takeover rumors persist.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":114102849,"gmtCreate":1623055256981,"gmtModify":1631892502318,"author":{"id":"3575339372526578","authorId":"3575339372526578","name":"shngski","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/080c63e6849b8760ff78d2dbb2fa1f31","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3575339372526578","idStr":"3575339372526578"},"htmlText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114102849","repostId":1191872806,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191872806","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623054201,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191872806?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-07 16:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"So many bullish signs for this stock market — except the most important one<blockquote>这个股市有很多看涨迹象——除了最重要的一个</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191872806","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"S&P 500 bulls keep failing to take control.The S&P 500 indexSPX,+0.88%probed up to – but not beyond ","content":"S&amp;P 500 bulls keep failing to take control.The S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,+0.88%probed up to – but not beyond – its all-time highs at 4238. The failure to break through to new highs this week gives the bears another chance.<blockquote>标普500多头一直未能控制局面。标普500指数SPX,+0.88%触及（但未超过）4238点的历史高点。本周未能突破新高给了空头另一次机会。</blockquote>The broader picture is that the index has been trading in a range between 4060 and 4238 for nearly two months. Given the length of time the S&amp;P has spent inside this range, a breakout from the range should be significant.<blockquote>更广泛的情况是，该指数近两个月来一直在4060点至4238点之间交易。考虑到标准普尔指数在该区间内停留的时间长度，突破该区间应该意义重大。</blockquote>An aggressive way to deal with a trading range is to buy the market near the lows of the range and sell (short) the market near the top of the ranking, planning to reverse your position if the market does indeed break out of the range. A less aggressive trade is to buy straddles when SPX is near the top or bottom of the range, figuring that it will either break out or trade to the other side of the range.<blockquote>处理交易区间的一种激进方法是在区间低点附近买入市场，在排名顶部附近卖出（做空）市场，如果市场确实突破区间，计划反转您的头寸。不太激进的交易是当SPX接近该区间的顶部或底部时买入跨式交易，认为它要么会突破，要么交易到该区间的另一侧。</blockquote>The S&amp;P has been sitting near the top of the range since May 24. The longer it goes without breaking out to new all-time highs, the more likely it will trade down to the lower regions of the range.<blockquote>自5月24日以来，S&amp;P一直位于区间顶部附近。它没有突破历史新高的时间越长，就越有可能跌至该区间的较低区域。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b76daeb46d3b4588f3f20f6b007b4520\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">For the record, below the range there is support at 4000 and 3870, but it seems to me that if the lower of the range is broken, there will be a swift move lower to test those support levels. Also, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect, as noted at the upper right of the accompanying SPX chart.<blockquote>根据记录，该区间下方有4000点和3870点的支撑位，但在我看来，如果该区间的下限被突破，将会迅速走低以测试这些支撑位。此外，麦克米兰波动带(MVB)卖出信号仍然有效，如随附的SPX图表右上角所示。</blockquote>Equity-only put-call ratios are still on sell signals, at least according to the computer programs we use to analyze these charts. However, to the naked eye they are no longer rising (which places the sell signals in jeopardy). One can see that the standard ratio has taken a dip over the past couple of days (the dip being caused, in part, by extremely heavy call buying in the “short squeeze” stocks: AMC, BlackBerry, Beyond Meat etc.).<blockquote>仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率仍然是卖出信号，至少根据我们用来分析这些图表的计算机程序是这样。然而，肉眼看，它们不再上涨（这使得卖出信号处于危险之中）。人们可以看到，标准比率在过去几天有所下降（下降的部分原因是看涨期权大量买入“轧空”股票：AMC、黑莓、Beyond Meat等）。）.</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4a2d971772c195acca42723b2a23d37\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There is a similar, but less obvious dip on the weighted chart. For now, the sell signals remain in place, but if this new pace of heavy call buying persists, these indicators could roll over to buy signals soon.<blockquote>加权图上也有类似但不太明显的下降。目前，卖出信号仍然存在，但如果看涨期权大量买入的新步伐持续下去，这些指标可能很快就会转为买入信号。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60e1cdfdbb7193427ffba139a9b7b00\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Breadth has improved greatly in the last week or so. Both breadth oscillators are on buy signals. Moreover, they have moved into overbought territory, which is a good thing only if SPX can follow through and break out to the upside. In addition, the cumulative breadth indicators are trading at new all-time highs once again.<blockquote>广度在最近一周左右有了很大的改善。两个宽度振荡器都处于买入信号。此外，它们已经进入超买区域，只有当SPX能够坚持并向上突破时，这才是一件好事。此外，累计广度指标再次创下历史新高。</blockquote>New 52-week highs continue to easily outnumber new 52-week lows on the NYSE and elsewhere. Thus this indicator remains bullish. In fact, the number of new highs has expanded considerably and is near the extreme levels last seen in late February, but not seen for five years prior to that.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所和其他地方的52周新高继续轻松超过52周新低。因此该指标仍然看涨。事实上，新高的数量已大幅扩大，接近2月底出现的极端水平，但在此之前的五年中从未出现过。</blockquote>The volatility “complex” is bullish on stocks, in general. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect, and the trend of VIXVIX,4.63%is downward. Traders are still reluctant to push VIX down to extremely low levels, but one can see from the accompanying chart that VIX is below both its 20-day and 200-day moving averages. As long as the trend of volatility is lower, that is bullish for stocks.<blockquote>总体而言，波动性“复合体”看好股市。VIX“尖峰”买入信号仍然有效，VIXVIX，4.63%的趋势向下。交易员仍不愿将VIX压低至极低水平，但从附图中可以看出，VIX均低于20日和200日移动均线。只要波动率趋势较低，对股票来说就是看涨的。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac25caadad8b56159e600a98a4763f4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains a bullish indicator for stocks. The VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through October. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward.<blockquote>最后，波动性衍生品的构造仍然是股市的看涨指标。VIX期货的交易价格均高于VIX，期限结构在10月份之前向上倾斜。同样，CBOE波动率指数的期限结构向上倾斜。</blockquote>In summary, there are mostly bullish indicators in place. However, the most important indicator – the price of the stock market itself – is not confirming this apparent bullishness. It needs to break out to new all-time highs to do so, and that has been lacking.<blockquote>综上所述，看涨指标大多到位。然而，最重要的指标——股市本身的价格——并没有证实这种明显的看涨情绪。要做到这一点，它需要突破历史新高，而这一直是缺乏的。</blockquote>We continue to expect a volatile move away from current levels – whether that entails a retracement to the lower end of the trading or a strong breakout to new all-time highs. Hence, we are employing trading range strategies, along with holding positions in line with confirmed signals from our indicators.<blockquote>我们仍然预计当前水平将出现波动——无论是回撤至交易下限还是强劲突破至历史新高。因此，我们采用交易区间策略，并根据指标确认的信号持仓。</blockquote>New recommendation: Cornerstone OnDemand<blockquote>新推荐：Cornerstone OnDemand</blockquote>Option activity has increased dramatically in Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD,+3.39%as there are takeover rumors. The stock traded up to near-term resistance at 47 and then fell back. We are going to use a contingent recommendation here. In other words, we will only buy the CSOD call options if the contingency is fulfilled:<blockquote>由于有收购传闻，Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD的期权活动大幅增加，+3.39%。该股升至近期阻力位47，然后回落。我们将在这里使用一个或有推荐。换句话说，我们只有在满足或有事项的情况下才会购买CSOD看涨期权期权：</blockquote>IF CSOD closes above 47, THEN buy 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls<blockquote>如果CSOD收盘高于47，那么买入4 CSOD 7月（16日）47.5评级</blockquote>If the calls are bought, we will hold without a stop, while the rumors play out.<blockquote>如果评级被买入，我们将不停地持有，而谣言却在上演。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89fee88abb92504efba975eec92b68a3\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">New recommendation: Dropbox<blockquote>新推荐：Dropbox</blockquote>Another stock with heavy option activity has been DropboxDBX,+1.06%.The activist investor Elliot Group has taken a stake and will push the company to pursue strategies that increase its stock price in the short term. One rumor is a merger with rival BoxBOX,+1.78%.<blockquote>另一只期权活跃的股票是DropboxDBX，+1.06%。激进投资者Elliot Group已入股，并将推动该公司采取短期内提高股价的策略。有传言称将与竞争对手BoxBOX合并，+1.78%。</blockquote>Dropbox probed up to a three-year high on the news, but then fell back. So we are going to use a contingent recommendation here also:<blockquote>受此消息影响，Dropbox一度触及三年高点，但随后回落。因此，我们将在这里使用一个或有建议：</blockquote>IF DBX closes above 28.50, THEN buy 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls<blockquote>如果DBX收盘高于28.50，那么买入4 DBX 7月（16日）28日评级</blockquote>If these calls are bought, we will hold without a stop initially and see if the activist investor can accomplish something.<blockquote>如果这些评级被买入，我们最初会不停地持有，看看激进投资者是否能有所成就。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdc61a08d1269de554b35f4ced78a776\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有停止都是精神关闭停止。</blockquote>Long 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4320 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.<blockquote>多头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（11日）410看跌期权空头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（11日）385看跌期权：进行这笔交易是因为5月12日SPX下跌至4105点时出现了MVB卖出信号。它将被SPX再次收于+4 σ波段上方止损，该波段位于4320点并横盘整理。如果SPX在-4 σ区间交易，该信号将达到其利润目标。目前，较低的波段在4020点左右，正在横盘整理。如果SPX在任何时候交易于4000点，则卖出该头寸的一半。</blockquote>Long 1 SPY June (18th) 420 put and short 1 SPY Jun (18th) 400 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPY trades at the lower strike at any time.<blockquote>多头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）420看跌空头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）400看跌：该建议基于现有的纯股票看跌看涨期权比率卖出信号。只要仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率处于卖出信号，我们就将持有这一建议。因此，我们将每周更新状态。如果SPDR标普500指数ETF在任何时候都以较低的罢工价格进行交易，则向下滚动头寸，每边20次罢工。</blockquote>Long 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.<blockquote>龙3德6月（18日）100评级：在我们等待激进投资者产生积极结果时，不要停止持有。</blockquote>Long 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices).<blockquote>多2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）415评级空2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）428评级：该价差是在5月21日最新的VIX“尖峰”买入信号得到确认时买入的。如果VIX回到飙升模式，也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短的时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），它将被止损。</blockquote>Long 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,-0.14%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian NationalCNI,+0.66%.The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. So, with CNI at 112, the deal is worth $326. Of course, there will be regulatory delays. We are going to hold to see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian PacificCP,-0.14%—the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer or not. Finally, stop out the calls if CNI closes at 108 or lower.<blockquote>龙1 KSU 6月（18日）300看涨期权：堪萨斯城南方KSU,-0.14%已正式接受加拿大国家CNI,+0.66%的更高收购要约。该交易的价格为200美元现金+1.129股CNI股票。因此，CNI为112，这笔交易价值326美元。当然，也会有监管上的延迟。我们将持有，看看这种利差是否会有所收紧。目前尚不清楚另一家竞购者Canadian PacificCP(-0.14%)是否会提出更好的报价。最后，如果CNI收于108或更低，则止损评级。</blockquote>Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPXtradesat 437, roll the calls up from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll the puts down to the 403 strike.<blockquote>做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看涨期权和做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看跌：这种多头跨式交易是在预期SPX将从420水平波动移动的情况下进行的。如果SPX贸易在437时，将评级从420罢工向上滚动到437罢工（或最接近该罢工）。相反，如果SPX交易价格为403，则将看跌期权降至403执行价。</blockquote>Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:Hold without a stop while takeover rumors persist.<blockquote>龙4 CERN 6月（18日）80评级：在收购传言持续存在的情况下，不要停止持有。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>So many bullish signs for this stock market — except the most important one<blockquote>这个股市有很多看涨迹象——除了最重要的一个</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSo many bullish signs for this stock market — except the most important one<blockquote>这个股市有很多看涨迹象——除了最重要的一个</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-07 16:23\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nS&amp;P 500 bulls keep failing to take control.The S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,+0.88%probed up to – but not beyond – its all-time highs at 4238. The failure to break through to new highs this week gives the bears another chance.<blockquote>标普500多头一直未能控制局面。标普500指数SPX,+0.88%触及（但未超过）4238点的历史高点。本周未能突破新高给了空头另一次机会。</blockquote>The broader picture is that the index has been trading in a range between 4060 and 4238 for nearly two months. Given the length of time the S&amp;P has spent inside this range, a breakout from the range should be significant.<blockquote>更广泛的情况是，该指数近两个月来一直在4060点至4238点之间交易。考虑到标准普尔指数在该区间内停留的时间长度，突破该区间应该意义重大。</blockquote>An aggressive way to deal with a trading range is to buy the market near the lows of the range and sell (short) the market near the top of the ranking, planning to reverse your position if the market does indeed break out of the range. A less aggressive trade is to buy straddles when SPX is near the top or bottom of the range, figuring that it will either break out or trade to the other side of the range.<blockquote>处理交易区间的一种激进方法是在区间低点附近买入市场，在排名顶部附近卖出（做空）市场，如果市场确实突破区间，计划反转您的头寸。不太激进的交易是当SPX接近该区间的顶部或底部时买入跨式交易，认为它要么会突破，要么交易到该区间的另一侧。</blockquote>The S&amp;P has been sitting near the top of the range since May 24. The longer it goes without breaking out to new all-time highs, the more likely it will trade down to the lower regions of the range.<blockquote>自5月24日以来，S&amp;P一直位于区间顶部附近。它没有突破历史新高的时间越长，就越有可能跌至该区间的较低区域。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b76daeb46d3b4588f3f20f6b007b4520\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">For the record, below the range there is support at 4000 and 3870, but it seems to me that if the lower of the range is broken, there will be a swift move lower to test those support levels. Also, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect, as noted at the upper right of the accompanying SPX chart.<blockquote>根据记录，该区间下方有4000点和3870点的支撑位，但在我看来，如果该区间的下限被突破，将会迅速走低以测试这些支撑位。此外，麦克米兰波动带(MVB)卖出信号仍然有效，如随附的SPX图表右上角所示。</blockquote>Equity-only put-call ratios are still on sell signals, at least according to the computer programs we use to analyze these charts. However, to the naked eye they are no longer rising (which places the sell signals in jeopardy). One can see that the standard ratio has taken a dip over the past couple of days (the dip being caused, in part, by extremely heavy call buying in the “short squeeze” stocks: AMC, BlackBerry, Beyond Meat etc.).<blockquote>仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率仍然是卖出信号，至少根据我们用来分析这些图表的计算机程序是这样。然而，肉眼看，它们不再上涨（这使得卖出信号处于危险之中）。人们可以看到，标准比率在过去几天有所下降（下降的部分原因是看涨期权大量买入“轧空”股票：AMC、黑莓、Beyond Meat等）。）.</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4a2d971772c195acca42723b2a23d37\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There is a similar, but less obvious dip on the weighted chart. For now, the sell signals remain in place, but if this new pace of heavy call buying persists, these indicators could roll over to buy signals soon.<blockquote>加权图上也有类似但不太明显的下降。目前，卖出信号仍然存在，但如果看涨期权大量买入的新步伐持续下去，这些指标可能很快就会转为买入信号。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60e1cdfdbb7193427ffba139a9b7b00\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Breadth has improved greatly in the last week or so. Both breadth oscillators are on buy signals. Moreover, they have moved into overbought territory, which is a good thing only if SPX can follow through and break out to the upside. In addition, the cumulative breadth indicators are trading at new all-time highs once again.<blockquote>广度在最近一周左右有了很大的改善。两个宽度振荡器都处于买入信号。此外，它们已经进入超买区域，只有当SPX能够坚持并向上突破时，这才是一件好事。此外，累计广度指标再次创下历史新高。</blockquote>New 52-week highs continue to easily outnumber new 52-week lows on the NYSE and elsewhere. Thus this indicator remains bullish. In fact, the number of new highs has expanded considerably and is near the extreme levels last seen in late February, but not seen for five years prior to that.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所和其他地方的52周新高继续轻松超过52周新低。因此该指标仍然看涨。事实上，新高的数量已大幅扩大，接近2月底出现的极端水平，但在此之前的五年中从未出现过。</blockquote>The volatility “complex” is bullish on stocks, in general. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect, and the trend of VIXVIX,4.63%is downward. Traders are still reluctant to push VIX down to extremely low levels, but one can see from the accompanying chart that VIX is below both its 20-day and 200-day moving averages. As long as the trend of volatility is lower, that is bullish for stocks.<blockquote>总体而言，波动性“复合体”看好股市。VIX“尖峰”买入信号仍然有效，VIXVIX，4.63%的趋势向下。交易员仍不愿将VIX压低至极低水平，但从附图中可以看出，VIX均低于20日和200日移动均线。只要波动率趋势较低，对股票来说就是看涨的。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac25caadad8b56159e600a98a4763f4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains a bullish indicator for stocks. The VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through October. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward.<blockquote>最后，波动性衍生品的构造仍然是股市的看涨指标。VIX期货的交易价格均高于VIX，期限结构在10月份之前向上倾斜。同样，CBOE波动率指数的期限结构向上倾斜。</blockquote>In summary, there are mostly bullish indicators in place. However, the most important indicator – the price of the stock market itself – is not confirming this apparent bullishness. It needs to break out to new all-time highs to do so, and that has been lacking.<blockquote>综上所述，看涨指标大多到位。然而，最重要的指标——股市本身的价格——并没有证实这种明显的看涨情绪。要做到这一点，它需要突破历史新高，而这一直是缺乏的。</blockquote>We continue to expect a volatile move away from current levels – whether that entails a retracement to the lower end of the trading or a strong breakout to new all-time highs. Hence, we are employing trading range strategies, along with holding positions in line with confirmed signals from our indicators.<blockquote>我们仍然预计当前水平将出现波动——无论是回撤至交易下限还是强劲突破至历史新高。因此，我们采用交易区间策略，并根据指标确认的信号持仓。</blockquote>New recommendation: Cornerstone OnDemand<blockquote>新推荐：Cornerstone OnDemand</blockquote>Option activity has increased dramatically in Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD,+3.39%as there are takeover rumors. The stock traded up to near-term resistance at 47 and then fell back. We are going to use a contingent recommendation here. In other words, we will only buy the CSOD call options if the contingency is fulfilled:<blockquote>由于有收购传闻，Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD的期权活动大幅增加，+3.39%。该股升至近期阻力位47，然后回落。我们将在这里使用一个或有推荐。换句话说，我们只有在满足或有事项的情况下才会购买CSOD看涨期权期权：</blockquote>IF CSOD closes above 47, THEN buy 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls<blockquote>如果CSOD收盘高于47，那么买入4 CSOD 7月（16日）47.5评级</blockquote>If the calls are bought, we will hold without a stop, while the rumors play out.<blockquote>如果评级被买入，我们将不停地持有，而谣言却在上演。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89fee88abb92504efba975eec92b68a3\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">New recommendation: Dropbox<blockquote>新推荐：Dropbox</blockquote>Another stock with heavy option activity has been DropboxDBX,+1.06%.The activist investor Elliot Group has taken a stake and will push the company to pursue strategies that increase its stock price in the short term. One rumor is a merger with rival BoxBOX,+1.78%.<blockquote>另一只期权活跃的股票是DropboxDBX，+1.06%。激进投资者Elliot Group已入股，并将推动该公司采取短期内提高股价的策略。有传言称将与竞争对手BoxBOX合并，+1.78%。</blockquote>Dropbox probed up to a three-year high on the news, but then fell back. So we are going to use a contingent recommendation here also:<blockquote>受此消息影响，Dropbox一度触及三年高点，但随后回落。因此，我们将在这里使用一个或有建议：</blockquote>IF DBX closes above 28.50, THEN buy 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls<blockquote>如果DBX收盘高于28.50，那么买入4 DBX 7月（16日）28日评级</blockquote>If these calls are bought, we will hold without a stop initially and see if the activist investor can accomplish something.<blockquote>如果这些评级被买入，我们最初会不停地持有，看看激进投资者是否能有所成就。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdc61a08d1269de554b35f4ced78a776\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有停止都是精神关闭停止。</blockquote>Long 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4320 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.<blockquote>多头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（11日）410看跌期权空头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（11日）385看跌期权：进行这笔交易是因为5月12日SPX下跌至4105点时出现了MVB卖出信号。它将被SPX再次收于+4 σ波段上方止损，该波段位于4320点并横盘整理。如果SPX在-4 σ区间交易，该信号将达到其利润目标。目前，较低的波段在4020点左右，正在横盘整理。如果SPX在任何时候交易于4000点，则卖出该头寸的一半。</blockquote>Long 1 SPY June (18th) 420 put and short 1 SPY Jun (18th) 400 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPY trades at the lower strike at any time.<blockquote>多头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）420看跌空头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）400看跌：该建议基于现有的纯股票看跌看涨期权比率卖出信号。只要仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率处于卖出信号，我们就将持有这一建议。因此，我们将每周更新状态。如果SPDR标普500指数ETF在任何时候都以较低的罢工价格进行交易，则向下滚动头寸，每边20次罢工。</blockquote>Long 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.<blockquote>龙3德6月（18日）100评级：在我们等待激进投资者产生积极结果时，不要停止持有。</blockquote>Long 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices).<blockquote>多2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）415评级空2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6月（18日）428评级：该价差是在5月21日最新的VIX“尖峰”买入信号得到确认时买入的。如果VIX回到飙升模式，也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短的时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），它将被止损。</blockquote>Long 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,-0.14%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian NationalCNI,+0.66%.The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. So, with CNI at 112, the deal is worth $326. Of course, there will be regulatory delays. We are going to hold to see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian PacificCP,-0.14%—the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer or not. Finally, stop out the calls if CNI closes at 108 or lower.<blockquote>龙1 KSU 6月（18日）300看涨期权：堪萨斯城南方KSU,-0.14%已正式接受加拿大国家CNI,+0.66%的更高收购要约。该交易的价格为200美元现金+1.129股CNI股票。因此，CNI为112，这笔交易价值326美元。当然，也会有监管上的延迟。我们将持有，看看这种利差是否会有所收紧。目前尚不清楚另一家竞购者Canadian PacificCP(-0.14%)是否会提出更好的报价。最后，如果CNI收于108或更低，则止损评级。</blockquote>Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPXtradesat 437, roll the calls up from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll the puts down to the 403 strike.<blockquote>做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看涨期权和做多1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）420看跌：这种多头跨式交易是在预期SPX将从420水平波动移动的情况下进行的。如果SPX贸易在437时，将评级从420罢工向上滚动到437罢工（或最接近该罢工）。相反，如果SPX交易价格为403，则将看跌期权降至403执行价。</blockquote>Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:Hold without a stop while takeover rumors persist.<blockquote>龙4 CERN 6月（18日）80评级：在收购传言持续存在的情况下，不要停止持有。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/so-many-bullish-signs-for-this-stock-market-except-the-most-important-one-01622734536?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/so-many-bullish-signs-for-this-stock-market-except-the-most-important-one-01622734536?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191872806","content_text":"S&P 500 bulls keep failing to take control.The S&P 500 indexSPX,+0.88%probed up to – but not beyond – its all-time highs at 4238. The failure to break through to new highs this week gives the bears another chance.The broader picture is that the index has been trading in a range between 4060 and 4238 for nearly two months. Given the length of time the S&P has spent inside this range, a breakout from the range should be significant.An aggressive way to deal with a trading range is to buy the market near the lows of the range and sell (short) the market near the top of the ranking, planning to reverse your position if the market does indeed break out of the range. A less aggressive trade is to buy straddles when SPX is near the top or bottom of the range, figuring that it will either break out or trade to the other side of the range.The S&P has been sitting near the top of the range since May 24. The longer it goes without breaking out to new all-time highs, the more likely it will trade down to the lower regions of the range.For the record, below the range there is support at 4000 and 3870, but it seems to me that if the lower of the range is broken, there will be a swift move lower to test those support levels. Also, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect, as noted at the upper right of the accompanying SPX chart.Equity-only put-call ratios are still on sell signals, at least according to the computer programs we use to analyze these charts. However, to the naked eye they are no longer rising (which places the sell signals in jeopardy). One can see that the standard ratio has taken a dip over the past couple of days (the dip being caused, in part, by extremely heavy call buying in the “short squeeze” stocks: AMC, BlackBerry, Beyond Meat etc.).There is a similar, but less obvious dip on the weighted chart. For now, the sell signals remain in place, but if this new pace of heavy call buying persists, these indicators could roll over to buy signals soon.Breadth has improved greatly in the last week or so. Both breadth oscillators are on buy signals. Moreover, they have moved into overbought territory, which is a good thing only if SPX can follow through and break out to the upside. In addition, the cumulative breadth indicators are trading at new all-time highs once again.New 52-week highs continue to easily outnumber new 52-week lows on the NYSE and elsewhere. Thus this indicator remains bullish. In fact, the number of new highs has expanded considerably and is near the extreme levels last seen in late February, but not seen for five years prior to that.The volatility “complex” is bullish on stocks, in general. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect, and the trend of VIXVIX,4.63%is downward. Traders are still reluctant to push VIX down to extremely low levels, but one can see from the accompanying chart that VIX is below both its 20-day and 200-day moving averages. As long as the trend of volatility is lower, that is bullish for stocks.Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains a bullish indicator for stocks. The VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through October. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward.In summary, there are mostly bullish indicators in place. However, the most important indicator – the price of the stock market itself – is not confirming this apparent bullishness. It needs to break out to new all-time highs to do so, and that has been lacking.We continue to expect a volatile move away from current levels – whether that entails a retracement to the lower end of the trading or a strong breakout to new all-time highs. Hence, we are employing trading range strategies, along with holding positions in line with confirmed signals from our indicators.New recommendation: Cornerstone OnDemandOption activity has increased dramatically in Cornerstone OnDemandCSOD,+3.39%as there are takeover rumors. The stock traded up to near-term resistance at 47 and then fell back. We are going to use a contingent recommendation here. In other words, we will only buy the CSOD call options if the contingency is fulfilled:IF CSOD closes above 47, THEN buy 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 callsIf the calls are bought, we will hold without a stop, while the rumors play out.New recommendation: DropboxAnother stock with heavy option activity has been DropboxDBX,+1.06%.The activist investor Elliot Group has taken a stake and will push the company to pursue strategies that increase its stock price in the short term. One rumor is a merger with rival BoxBOX,+1.78%.Dropbox probed up to a three-year high on the news, but then fell back. So we are going to use a contingent recommendation here also:IF DBX closes above 28.50, THEN buy 4 DBX July (16th) 28 callsIf these calls are bought, we will hold without a stop initially and see if the activist investor can accomplish something.Follow-up actionAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.Long 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4320 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.Long 1 SPY June (18th) 420 put and short 1 SPY Jun (18th) 400 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPY trades at the lower strike at any time.Long 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.Long 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices).Long 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,-0.14%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian NationalCNI,+0.66%.The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. So, with CNI at 112, the deal is worth $326. Of course, there will be regulatory delays. We are going to hold to see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian PacificCP,-0.14%—the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer or not. Finally, stop out the calls if CNI closes at 108 or lower.Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPXtradesat 437, roll the calls up from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll the puts down to the 403 strike.Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:Hold without a stop while takeover rumors persist.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4614674,"gmtCreate":1623055543481,"gmtModify":1631892502319,"authorId":3579925209341859,"author":{"id":3579925209341859,"idStr":"3579925209341859","authorId":3579925209341859,"name":"FlyHighFly","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a610574cab0fe2ee4e79d08d0eb9ce6c","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":114102849,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Sure","text":"Sure","html":"Sure"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":36,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.43.1","shortVersion":"4.43.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1191872806","isCrawlerRequest":true}