华尔街大行警告：快跑！AI概念正在泡沫化

华尔街见闻2023-05-19

“华尔街预测最准分析师”认为，科技股和人工智能概念股估值过高，正处泡沫化的“婴儿期”，同时美联储的加息周期或许还未结束，以史为鉴，到抛售涨幅过高的个股了。要说今年美股最火热概念，谁敢与AI争王位？几乎贯穿了整个一季度的Al热潮也为科技股的强势回归添了一把火。面对如此火热的行情，自去年以来华尔街预测最准确的分析师、美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett在最新的报告中表示，科技股和人工智能...

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精彩评论

欲穷千里目
2023-05-20
欲穷千里目
今年的这次行情中，许多机构被轧空, 没有吸入足够的筹码，所以就使劲惊吓散户，忽悠胆小者交出股票。K线图中清晰显示自去年十月见底后一直有大资金逢低买入，在逐步建仓。没有大幅度的极速拉升，它们是不会出来的，而且也出不来。像现在这样进两步回一步的理性上涨，风险不大。
- 阿咕咕咕:
  这种理性上涨的情况还挺有趣的，我会继续关注
- 日添一线:
  期待市场能给我们带来好消息，让我们的投资有所回报
- 黑天鹅本人:
  我相信市场会逐步上涨，不会出现大幅度的崩盘
- 牛回速速归:
  尽管有些震荡，但我还是觉得市场的发展前景很好的
- 俯瞰繁华:
  哎呀，今年的行情真是让人忐忑不安
囧囧有神_5198
2023-05-20
囧囧有神_5198
一边说跑一边加仓

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Microsystems首席执行官Scott McNeely曾就估值发表过一个重要评论：如果一个公司的市值是其营收的10倍，意味着为了让投资者于10年内收回成本，公司需要在接下来的10年里，每年将其全部营收作为股息支付给投资者。因此有分析指出，对于投资者而言，市销率若超过五倍可能出现很多潜在问题：包括估值过高、盈利不稳定、市场饱和、竞争压力以及行业特定因素：以市销率为2倍的公司为例，销售额增速达20%也只能维持其市值的温和增长。而对于市销率超五倍的公司而言，销售额增速需要达到一个“天文数字”才能维持市值。除了市销率这一估值指标，华尔街见闻此前指出，标普500指数中的全部科技股的预期市盈率接近25倍这一历史性的高水平，要证明这样的倍数是合理的，美联储将需要至少降息300个基点，这是掉期市场对今年降息定价的五倍多。考虑到估值回调的可能性，部分投资者开始从“安全资产”中撤离：Legal & General Investment Management和RBC Wealth Management等基金削减科技股头寸。历史教训：过于集中不是好事《巴伦周刊》编辑Randall Forsyth曾说：“这次可能不一样——是投资里最危险的一句话。”华尔街见闻在此前的多篇文章中提到，美股今年的涨幅也靠“AI”，做多大型科技股是美股最拥挤的交易，科技股已接近超买，难以继续领跑市场：年初至今，六家LLM创新公司微软、谷歌、亚马逊、Meta、英伟达、Salesforce贡献了标普500涨幅的53％、纳斯达克100的54％和成长型股票的68％。一季度美股反弹的广度“以某些指标衡量是有史以来最弱的”，领涨股票的数量是自1990年代以来最少的。从历史上看，过于集中并不是好事，每每当美股由单一行业或者少数巨头主导后，往往会伴随一轮调整：1980年代能源板块占标普500指数的比重最高时达到26%，但伴随着油价的下跌，能源股独领风骚的时代也过去了。随后登场的是科技股，2000年科网泡沫破裂前，科技板块占标普500指数的比重飙升至 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没有吸入足够的筹码，所以就使劲惊吓散户，忽悠胆小者交出股票。K线图中清晰显示自去年十月见底后一直有大资金逢低买入，在逐步建仓。没有大幅度的极速拉升，它们是不会出来的，而且也出不来。像现在这样进两步回一步的理性上涨，风险不大。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/652677690","repostId":1168806809,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7985979,"gmtCreate":1684607123444,"gmtModify":1684607127196,"authorId":10000000000010316,"author":{"id":10000000000010316,"authorId":10000000000010316,"name":"阿咕咕咕","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12a0c58374df69e6142a95d96017b500","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":652677690,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<p>这种理性上涨的情况还挺有趣的，我会继续关注</p>","text":"<p>这种理性上涨的情况还挺有趣的，我会继续关注</p>","html":"<p>这种理性上涨的情况还挺有趣的，我会继续关注</p>"},{"id":7985978,"gmtCreate":1684607118347,"gmtModify":1684607121953,"authorId":10000000000010308,"author":{"id":10000000000010308,"authorId":10000000000010308,"name":"日添一线","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aeb3e8db40fe4ec233833b9576b8645d","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":652677690,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<p>期待市场能给我们带来好消息，让我们的投资有所回报</p>","text":"<p>期待市场能给我们带来好消息，让我们的投资有所回报</p>","html":"<p>期待市场能给我们带来好消息，让我们的投资有所回报</p>"},{"id":7985977,"gmtCreate":1684607112536,"gmtModify":1684607116448,"authorId":10000000000010310,"author":{"id":10000000000010310,"authorId":10000000000010310,"name":"黑天鹅本人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78bec073397d54a68f80879dd87fd45c","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":652677690,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<p>我相信市场会逐步上涨，不会出现大幅度的崩盘</p>","text":"<p>我相信市场会逐步上涨，不会出现大幅度的崩盘</p>","html":"<p>我相信市场会逐步上涨，不会出现大幅度的崩盘</p>"},{"id":7985976,"gmtCreate":1684607105916,"gmtModify":1684607109537,"authorId":10000000000010316,"author":{"id":10000000000010316,"authorId":10000000000010316,"name":"牛回速速归","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5dea98cdccfc0c5f53aa313fd4b775d","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":652677690,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<p>尽管有些震荡，但我还是觉得市场的发展前景很好的</p>","text":"<p>尽管有些震荡，但我还是觉得市场的发展前景很好的</p>","html":"<p>尽管有些震荡，但我还是觉得市场的发展前景很好的</p>"},{"id":7985975,"gmtCreate":1684607098458,"gmtModify":1684607102690,"authorId":10000000000010316,"author":{"id":10000000000010316,"authorId":10000000000010316,"name":"俯瞰繁华","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/566d1b7159811709d3390ba1abb197c5","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":652677690,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<p>哎呀，今年的行情真是让人忐忑不安</p>","text":"<p>哎呀，今年的行情真是让人忐忑不安</p>","html":"<p>哎呀，今年的行情真是让人忐忑不安</p>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":652679699,"gmtCreate":1684513176511,"gmtModify":1684515514649,"author":{"id":"3547128714019880","authorId":"3547128714019880","name":"囧囧有神_5198","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cd1ac3cae548644cb47144b2c48f9c1","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"一边说跑&nbsp; 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