Record selling by insiders is setting up stocks for a big fall, says contrarian investor

MarketWatch2021-11-18

After a year of record stock buying on Wall Street, the message from forecasters for 2022 has largely been “keep at it.” This week, we heard from Goldman Sachs, which sees households and corporate ...

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精彩评论

JeremyKok
2021-11-21
JeremyKok
I thinking is just sell today when is up and buy tomorrow when it's down. Not really a correction. Most of the good company's price are range bound today fall $1 tomorrow up $1. A correction should be fall a few months to it's fundamental value? This doesn't seem to be happening. Do your own due diligence before you invest.
koolgal
2021-11-19
koolgal
It is interesting that the insiders are selling while the retail investors are buying frantically! If there is a big fall however, I will queue up to buy my favourite stocks like Apple, Microsoft and META Platforms! They will definitely be great to hold in my portfolio for a long term investor like me. 🎊🎉🎊
- koolgal:
  I agree. Thanks for sharing
- alexcflee:
  Apple, Microsoft and META are 3 must in our portfolio and buy more at dips
- koolgal:
  Poor Baba has been having a hard time lately. But it is still very profitable and should go up long term
- 3dff2466:
  How biut baba
- koolgal:
  Good idea.
Choois
2021-11-19
Choois
Very good
MoneyCub
2021-11-19
MoneyCub
Like
Investorpw
2021-11-19
Investorpw
Please like
- JeremyKok:
  hi. please like and comment back. thank you.
SinWei
2021-11-19
SinWei
Like
- TBH:
  Good
- Winnie4874:
  Ok

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From that same neck of the woods, our call of the day from the True Contrarian blog and newsletter’s chief executive, Steven Jon Kaplan, has a warning for investors who have been piling into this market.\n“People are really underappreciating the degree of risk that they’re taking because now that we have — especially for the really big megacap names — even greater overvaluation than we’ve had before, the downside risk is extremely high,” Kaplan told MarketWatch in an interview on Wednesday.\nWhile a year ago Kaplan predicted a big selloff that didn’t really materialize, he notes 2021 was “unusual” with stock inflows not seen in 20 to 50 years, depending on whom you ask, that kept markets propped up. So the biggest and strongest companies kept rising and the rest went sideways.\nFor 2022, he sees those highflying stocks falling hard and possibly panicking inexperienced investors. That is because “anybody who’s 30 years old or younger, the last time we had a bear market, they were in high school or even earlier grades so they don’t even have the experience of knowing what it’s like to invest in a bear market,” Kaplan said.\nAmong the warning signs, he highlights a favorite indicator of his — selling and buying by company insiders, which he tracks via J3 Information Services Group.\n“We’ve had all-time record levels of insider selling meaning that the top executives, the people that are the most experienced investors in the world, have been pretty much spending all year getting rid of their stakes in some cases and unloading huge amounts of shares they have accumulated for decades,” said Kaplan.\nFor example, the chairman of broker Charles Schwab who has been selling all year — the stock is up 50% — and of course Tesla CEO Elon Musk has dumped over $8.8 billion — shares are still up 54%. Billions have been sold by the heads of Apple,Facebook parent Meta and Amazon this year.\n“So I think that the people that have the most knowledge are the most worried about a drop and people that have the least experience in some cases, maybe just started trading in the past year or so, consistently, are the most aggressive and the most optimistic about what’s going to happen,” Kaplan said.\n“History has shown us that when you have that big a difference in opinion from the most experienced to the least experienced people that the most experienced ones always come out on top,” he said, adding that the opposite has also held true with big insiders buying at crucial moments, such as in March 2009.\nOne sign that those investors are trying to position more conservatively could be driving dollar gains this year, he added.\nAs for what it will take to normalize price earnings ratios that are on average about “triple where they need to be,” Kaplan said most stocks would need to drop two-thirds. But “when things are either above or below fair value, and they come back to fair value, they rarely stay at fair value. They normally keep going because when people start to see things dropping a lot, they start to panic,” he said.\nFor where to park some cash for the coming storm, Kaplan suggests investors look at I-Bond or Series I savings bonds that can be bought directly from the government and are currently offering a return of 7%.\n“You can put up to $65,000 a year into those and for 30 years, you can just keep them in there and just let them keep collecting whatever interest that they pay, which keeps changing every six months,” he said.\n\nStock futures are pointing to a rebound from Tuesday’s selling. The Hang Seng,meanwhile, dropped 1.4% led by tech stocks. The Turkish lira is diving further after the country’s central bank cut interest rates 100 basis points as widely expected.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":872197158,"gmtCreate":1637455808035,"gmtModify":1637455810050,"author":{"id":"3567307840510045","authorId":"3567307840510045","name":"JeremyKok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b03a485f83b6b2615fad8ac9b87bf4","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"I thinking is just sell today when is up and buy tomorrow when it's down. Not really a correction. Most of the good company's price are range bound today fall $1 tomorrow up $1. A correction should be fall a few months to it's fundamental value? This doesn't seem to be happening. Do your own due diligence before you invest.","listText":"I thinking is just sell today when is up and buy tomorrow when it's down. Not really a correction. Most of the good company's price are range bound today fall $1 tomorrow up $1. A correction should be fall a few months to it's fundamental value? This doesn't seem to be happening. Do your own due diligence before you invest.","text":"I thinking is just sell today when is up and buy tomorrow when it's down. Not really a correction. Most of the good company's price are range bound today fall $1 tomorrow up $1. A correction should be fall a few months to it's fundamental value? This doesn't seem to be happening. Do your own due diligence before you invest.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872197158","repostId":1125341334,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":876643036,"gmtCreate":1637311089918,"gmtModify":1637368348845,"author":{"id":"3559581955535845","authorId":"3559581955535845","name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"It is interesting that the insiders are selling while the retail investors are buying frantically!&nbsp; If there is a big fall however, I will queue up to buy my favourite stocks like Apple, Microsoft and META Platforms!&nbsp; They will definitely be great to hold in my portfolio&nbsp;for a long term investor like me. 🎊🎉🎊","listText":"It is interesting that the insiders are selling while the retail investors are buying frantically!&nbsp; If there is a big fall however, I will queue up to buy my favourite stocks like Apple, Microsoft and META Platforms!&nbsp; They will definitely be great to hold in my portfolio&nbsp;for a long term investor like me. 🎊🎉🎊","text":"It is interesting that the insiders are selling while the retail investors are buying frantically! If there is a big fall however, I will queue up to buy my favourite stocks like Apple, Microsoft and META Platforms! They will definitely be great to hold in my portfolio for a long term investor like me. 🎊🎉🎊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":21,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876643036","repostId":1125341334,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6739486,"gmtCreate":1637970988010,"gmtModify":1637970988010,"authorId":3559581955535845,"author":{"id":3559581955535845,"authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":876643036,"type":1,"supId":6734587,"prevId":0,"content":"I agree. Thanks for sharing","text":"I agree. Thanks for sharing","html":"I agree. Thanks for sharing"},{"id":6734587,"gmtCreate":1637932636983,"gmtModify":1637933773831,"authorId":4089902806740590,"author":{"id":4089902806740590,"authorId":4089902806740590,"name":"alexcflee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d7180223b24507557807fe1c134ce9","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":876643036,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Apple, Microsoft and META are 3 must in our portfolio and buy more at <u>dips</u>","text":"Apple, Microsoft and META are 3 must in our portfolio and buy more at <u>dips</u>","html":"Apple, Microsoft and META are 3 must in our portfolio and buy more at <u>dips</u>"},{"id":6654047,"gmtCreate":1637386288393,"gmtModify":1637386288393,"authorId":3559581955535845,"author":{"id":3559581955535845,"authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":876643036,"type":1,"supId":6654019,"prevId":0,"content":"Poor Baba has been having a hard time lately.&nbsp; But it is still very profitable and should go up long <u>term</u>","text":"Poor Baba has been having a hard time lately.&nbsp; But it is still very profitable and should go up long <u>term</u>","html":"Poor Baba has been having a hard time lately.&nbsp; But it is still very profitable and should go up long <u>term</u>"},{"id":6654019,"gmtCreate":1637386049868,"gmtModify":1637386049907,"authorId":3586582968662313,"author":{"id":3586582968662313,"authorId":3586582968662313,"name":"3dff2466","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":876643036,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"How biut baba","text":"How biut baba","html":"How biut baba"},{"id":6651689,"gmtCreate":1637375378992,"gmtModify":1637375378992,"authorId":3559581955535845,"author":{"id":3559581955535845,"authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":876643036,"type":1,"supId":6651063,"prevId":0,"content":"Good idea.","text":"Good idea.","html":"Good idea."}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":876341018,"gmtCreate":1637277280770,"gmtModify":1637277280770,"author":{"id":"4098957894649940","authorId":"4098957894649940","name":"Choois","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2508f60a10e5aa3c063066d2f54743e3","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Very good&nbsp;","listText":"Very good&nbsp;","text":"Very good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876341018","repostId":1125341334,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":876354823,"gmtCreate":1637276865064,"gmtModify":1637276865374,"author":{"id":"3559862059870297","authorId":"3559862059870297","name":"MoneyCub","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f4ae708d214afbc1b0b1f68ecc65c7e","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876354823","repostId":1125341334,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":876352508,"gmtCreate":1637276582394,"gmtModify":1637276582610,"author":{"id":"3564887540980880","authorId":"3564887540980880","name":"Investorpw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1dd948dbb16b3bc2aece70dc8351fa9","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Please like","listText":"Please like","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876352508","repostId":1125341334,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6660281,"gmtCreate":1637454994189,"gmtModify":1637454994292,"authorId":3567307840510045,"author":{"id":3567307840510045,"authorId":3567307840510045,"name":"JeremyKok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b03a485f83b6b2615fad8ac9b87bf4","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":876352508,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"hi. please like and comment back. thank you.","text":"hi. please like and comment back. thank you.","html":"hi. please like and comment back. thank you."}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":876356321,"gmtCreate":1637276437165,"gmtModify":1637276437286,"author":{"id":"3578022615328346","authorId":"3578022615328346","name":"SinWei","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8473873d762914dfe247869843fe4bd2","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876356321","repostId":1125341334,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6634774,"gmtCreate":1637276493900,"gmtModify":1637276493997,"authorId":3568475257145403,"author":{"id":3568475257145403,"authorId":3568475257145403,"name":"TBH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44757f5faca8b925554f78fb0151cdfb","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":876356321,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Good","text":"Good","html":"Good"},{"id":6634772,"gmtCreate":1637276491765,"gmtModify":1637276491874,"authorId":4088307590081180,"author":{"id":4088307590081180,"authorId":4088307590081180,"name":"Winnie4874","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eec68de6a71fadb6a8d3c7fe4b8027cb","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":876356321,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":472,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":11,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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