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- 求大海求大海
  ·04-13
  遥遥领先 [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]
  117 评论
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- 求大海求大海
  ·04-09
  $Cameco Corp(CCJ)$ 是模拟，但是我至今不知道怎么回事？？？
  421 评论
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- 求大海求大海
  ·03-29
  即使危机来临，也总比只能做多的强[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]
  当前美股并非真正牛市？四大风险威胁上涨
  这个市场上没人知道什么时候该收手，但了解这些风险肯定对投资者没坏处。
  当前美股并非真正牛市？四大风险威胁上涨
  422 评论
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- 求大海求大海
  ·03-26
  刀尖上跳舞[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]
  347 评论
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- 求大海求大海
  ·03-23
  做空就完事了[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]
  382 评论
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- 求大海求大海
  ·03-23
  还是贪心啊[难过] [难过] [难过]
  255 评论
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- 求大海求大海
  ·03-21
  $京东(JD)$ 因为我做空了[难过] [难过] [难过]
  422 评论
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- 求大海求大海
  ·03-15
  香港电视剧里最喜欢电视剧《大时代》，永远的大时代，投机者的大时代
  592 评论
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- 求大海求大海
  ·03-15
  还是太贪啦，赚了西瓜不跑，最后拿了芝麻[难过] [难过] [难过]
  362 评论
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- 求大海求大海
  ·03-11
  首战告捷，再接再厉，创造辉煌！
  450 评论
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[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","listText":"遥遥领先 [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","text":"遥遥领先 [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/294817950736664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":293161814827096,"gmtCreate":1712592236839,"gmtModify":1712592239055,"author":{"id":"3437635021720347","authorId":"3437635021720347","name":"求大海","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b4b854221bae0c054d3db148a4356ab","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCJ\">$Cameco Corp(CCJ)$ </a> 是模拟，但是我至今不知道怎么回事？？？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCJ\">$Cameco Corp(CCJ)$ </a> 是模拟，但是我至今不知道怎么回事？？？","text":"$Cameco Corp(CCJ)$ 是模拟，但是我至今不知道怎么回事？？？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04bad784eb0c6d6ad53b4e06b8215c54","width":"882","height":"1608"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/293161814827096","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":289276185428144,"gmtCreate":1711646967155,"gmtModify":1711646969094,"author":{"id":"3437635021720347","authorId":"3437635021720347","name":"求大海","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b4b854221bae0c054d3db148a4356ab","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"即使危机来临，也总比只能做多的强[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"即使危机来临，也总比只能做多的强[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"即使危机来临，也总比只能做多的强[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/289276185428144","repostId":"2422915556","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2422915556","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国最具影响力的财经新闻媒体《财经》携手道琼斯媒体集团，引入百年历史的《巴伦》（Barron's）独家内容，打造涵盖全球金融信息、市场动态、行业分析、公司研究及理财顾问评估的全球投资平台。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"巴伦周刊","id":"1063202233","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab"},"pubTimestamp":1711597217,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2422915556?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-03-28 11:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"当前美股并非真正牛市？四大风险威胁上涨","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2422915556","media":"巴伦周刊","summary":"这个市场上没人知道什么时候该收手，但了解这些风险肯定对投资者没坏处。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>这个市场上没人知道什么时候该收手，但了解这些风险肯定对投资者没坏处。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">上周美股三大股指两次集体创下历史新高，这是近三年来首次出现这种情况。所有人都希望派对不要停，但股市不会永远涨下去，目前有几个因素可能会导致派对戛然而止。 </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当下市场环境有些让人难以理解。利率已升至23年来高点、区域性银行危机、两场海外战争、房地产市场下滑以及对经济衰退的普遍预期都未能阻止标普500指数从疫情期间低点上涨超过一倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">上周，美联储主席鲍威尔宣布美联储仍预计今年会降息三次，似乎没有受到最近高于预期的通胀数据的影响。在这一消息的推动下，道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均创下今年以来最大单周涨幅。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa531d554a5c201a178ae3295f0bfe33\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美股的上涨获得了人工智能热潮的推动，“七巨头”——特斯拉(TSLA)、英伟达(NVDA)、亚马逊(AMZN)、Alphabet (GOOGL)、微软(MSFT)、Meta Platforms (META)和苹果(AAPL)——今年的平均涨幅约为19%，为标普500指数贡献了很大一部分涨幅。虽然这些公司的业务很强大，但一直有策略师认为它们的上涨不具可持续性。 </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国银行(Bank of America)首席投资策略师迈克尔·哈特尼特(Michael Hartnett)近日在接受彭博(Bloomberg)采访时说：“‘七巨头’的上涨越来越像泡沫。” </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wolfe Research策略师克里斯·森耶克(Chris Senyek)认为，<strong>股市最大的风险是“另一个20世纪90年代末式的科技、媒体和电信(TMT)泡沫的形成”。 </strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另一个风险可以通过“道氏理论”(Dow Theory)看出。“道氏理论”是一个技术分析工具，该理论认为，当一只道琼斯平均指数——道琼斯工业平均指数或道琼斯运输业平均指数——突破之前的重要高点、而且另一只道琼斯平均指数也突破之前的重要高点时，才能说真正的牛市开始了。“道氏理论”认为，如果企业经营状况良好而且收入正在增长，那么运输类股票也应该会盈利。 </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但这种情况并没有发生。上涨了4.7%的道琼斯工业平均指数已打破了之前创下的纪录，但道琼斯运输业平均指数仍比2021年峰值低6%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华尔街知名空头大卫·罗森博格(David Rosenberg)上周五在一篇文章中写道：<strong>“投资者尽可以享受这波投机型和动量型上涨，但这个市场还不符合真正的牛市定义。” </strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，根据FactSet的数据，预计今年标普500指数成份股公司的利润将增长11%，至242.49美元，这与1月份241.17美元的预估值相比并没有明显变化，但标普500指数上涨了9.7%，突破了5200点大关。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>成分股公司的盈利预期可能会在下半年被下调，进而削弱股市的上涨势头。</strong>Ned Davis Research首席美国策略师艾德·克利索德(Ed Clissold)近日指出，目前华尔街对今年前两个季度企业利润增长率的预期为4%至6%，对第三季度企业利润增长率的预期大幅升至近20%，接下来可能有会很大的下调空间。 </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另外，现实一点来说，<strong>美联储也有可能破坏这场派对</strong>。股市已经“完美定价”，已经消化了美联储今年多次降息以及美国经济有望“不着陆”（即经济超预期增长）的预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)美洲区首席投资官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)告诉《巴伦周刊》：“如果股市稍微被打了个措手不及，以及如果经济出现‘软着陆’（即美国GDP增长率略微低于预期），都有可能成为股市回调的催化剂。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当然，股市仍有可能进一步上涨，像2023年那样克服重重阻力，上述风险也有可能都不会成为现实。在这个市场上，没人知道什么时候该收手，但了解这些风险对投资者肯定没坏处。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>当前美股并非真正牛市？四大风险威胁上涨</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n当前美股并非真正牛市？四大风险威胁上涨\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1063202233\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">巴伦周刊 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-03-28 11:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>这个市场上没人知道什么时候该收手，但了解这些风险肯定对投资者没坏处。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">上周美股三大股指两次集体创下历史新高，这是近三年来首次出现这种情况。所有人都希望派对不要停，但股市不会永远涨下去，目前有几个因素可能会导致派对戛然而止。 </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当下市场环境有些让人难以理解。利率已升至23年来高点、区域性银行危机、两场海外战争、房地产市场下滑以及对经济衰退的普遍预期都未能阻止标普500指数从疫情期间低点上涨超过一倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">上周，美联储主席鲍威尔宣布美联储仍预计今年会降息三次，似乎没有受到最近高于预期的通胀数据的影响。在这一消息的推动下，道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均创下今年以来最大单周涨幅。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa531d554a5c201a178ae3295f0bfe33\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"718\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美股的上涨获得了人工智能热潮的推动，“七巨头”——特斯拉(TSLA)、英伟达(NVDA)、亚马逊(AMZN)、Alphabet (GOOGL)、微软(MSFT)、Meta Platforms (META)和苹果(AAPL)——今年的平均涨幅约为19%，为标普500指数贡献了很大一部分涨幅。虽然这些公司的业务很强大，但一直有策略师认为它们的上涨不具可持续性。 </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国银行(Bank of America)首席投资策略师迈克尔·哈特尼特(Michael Hartnett)近日在接受彭博(Bloomberg)采访时说：“‘七巨头’的上涨越来越像泡沫。” </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wolfe Research策略师克里斯·森耶克(Chris Senyek)认为，<strong>股市最大的风险是“另一个20世纪90年代末式的科技、媒体和电信(TMT)泡沫的形成”。 </strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另一个风险可以通过“道氏理论”(Dow Theory)看出。“道氏理论”是一个技术分析工具，该理论认为，当一只道琼斯平均指数——道琼斯工业平均指数或道琼斯运输业平均指数——突破之前的重要高点、而且另一只道琼斯平均指数也突破之前的重要高点时，才能说真正的牛市开始了。“道氏理论”认为，如果企业经营状况良好而且收入正在增长，那么运输类股票也应该会盈利。 </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但这种情况并没有发生。上涨了4.7%的道琼斯工业平均指数已打破了之前创下的纪录，但道琼斯运输业平均指数仍比2021年峰值低6%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华尔街知名空头大卫·罗森博格(David Rosenberg)上周五在一篇文章中写道：<strong>“投资者尽可以享受这波投机型和动量型上涨，但这个市场还不符合真正的牛市定义。” </strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，根据FactSet的数据，预计今年标普500指数成份股公司的利润将增长11%，至242.49美元，这与1月份241.17美元的预估值相比并没有明显变化，但标普500指数上涨了9.7%，突破了5200点大关。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>成分股公司的盈利预期可能会在下半年被下调，进而削弱股市的上涨势头。</strong>Ned Davis Research首席美国策略师艾德·克利索德(Ed Clissold)近日指出，目前华尔街对今年前两个季度企业利润增长率的预期为4%至6%，对第三季度企业利润增长率的预期大幅升至近20%，接下来可能有会很大的下调空间。 </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另外，现实一点来说，<strong>美联储也有可能破坏这场派对</strong>。股市已经“完美定价”，已经消化了美联储今年多次降息以及美国经济有望“不着陆”（即经济超预期增长）的预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)美洲区首席投资官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)告诉《巴伦周刊》：“如果股市稍微被打了个措手不及，以及如果经济出现‘软着陆’（即美国GDP增长率略微低于预期），都有可能成为股市回调的催化剂。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当然，股市仍有可能进一步上涨，像2023年那样克服重重阻力，上述风险也有可能都不会成为现实。在这个市场上，没人知道什么时候该收手，但了解这些风险对投资者肯定没坏处。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa531d554a5c201a178ae3295f0bfe33","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.ifeng.com/c/8YIlJlvBMki","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2422915556","content_text":"这个市场上没人知道什么时候该收手，但了解这些风险肯定对投资者没坏处。上周美股三大股指两次集体创下历史新高，这是近三年来首次出现这种情况。所有人都希望派对不要停，但股市不会永远涨下去，目前有几个因素可能会导致派对戛然而止。 当下市场环境有些让人难以理解。利率已升至23年来高点、区域性银行危机、两场海外战争、房地产市场下滑以及对经济衰退的普遍预期都未能阻止标普500指数从疫情期间低点上涨超过一倍。上周，美联储主席鲍威尔宣布美联储仍预计今年会降息三次，似乎没有受到最近高于预期的通胀数据的影响。在这一消息的推动下，道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均创下今年以来最大单周涨幅。美股的上涨获得了人工智能热潮的推动，“七巨头”——特斯拉(TSLA)、英伟达(NVDA)、亚马逊(AMZN)、Alphabet (GOOGL)、微软(MSFT)、Meta Platforms (META)和苹果(AAPL)——今年的平均涨幅约为19%，为标普500指数贡献了很大一部分涨幅。虽然这些公司的业务很强大，但一直有策略师认为它们的上涨不具可持续性。 美国银行(Bank of America)首席投资策略师迈克尔·哈特尼特(Michael Hartnett)近日在接受彭博(Bloomberg)采访时说：“‘七巨头’的上涨越来越像泡沫。” Wolfe Research策略师克里斯·森耶克(Chris Senyek)认为，股市最大的风险是“另一个20世纪90年代末式的科技、媒体和电信(TMT)泡沫的形成”。 另一个风险可以通过“道氏理论”(Dow 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