Forming machine tools for "industrial machine tools"

Good evening ~ the last article said that the machine tool industry chain is cyclical, why? Because its downstream involves construction machinery, metallurgy, automobiles, consumer electronics, national defense and military industry, light industrial manufacturing and so onAll industrial manufacturing fields, so, itsProsperity depends on the manufacturing cycle.

Because this industry is too small and each company's products overlap little, today's article mainly takes the product category of "Yawei Shares" as the breakthrough point, and divides this complex industry into small modules for in-depth understanding, otherwise no matter how many industry/company analyses you have read, you will forget it in an instant.

The whole analysis path is to understand the position, competition, scale, proportion of subdivided categories and trend changes of the industrial chain where the company is located to understand the future scale and development of Yawei's category.

(a) the links of the industrial chain of the industry in which the company is located

1. After the general introduction of the industry in the previous article, everyone should know something about the categories of the industry. The product range of Yawei shares analyzed today is the part in the red box in the following figure

So what exactly do these machines do? Let's take a brief look at:The bending machine can complete the programming and processing of complex parts at one time, which is characterized by high speed and high precision. Other introductions are shown in the following figure.

(2) Location of the industrial chain where the company is located

The industrial chain of metal forming machine tools is shown above,

Upstream: The company's core components CNC system suppliers include Siemens, Fanuc, DELEM, Eston and other leading brands at home and abroad. At present, there are stable suppliers upstream,With the increase of the company's purchase volume, the upstream suppliers give the company more favorable prices.

The company's own concentration is high, and there is no monopoly situation of suppliers in the upstream, so it will be relatively advantageous in cost transmission or there will be no passive situation.

Downstream: Automobile, transportation, aviation, sheet metal, machinery, household appliances and other major industriesProvide metal forming machine tools,Laser intelligent equipmentAs well asIntelligent manufacturing system solution.

(3)Proportion and competition pattern of each sub-category

1. As shown in the following figure, among metal processing machine tools, metal cutting machine tools account for about 63% and metal forming machine tools account for 37%;

2.In China's metal forming machine tool market, presses account for more than 50%, bending machines account for 13%, punches account for 7% and shears account for 3%Wait.

Speaking of which, I think that Yawei shares areThe faucets of benders and punches,In the next analysis of the company, we will analyze whether the company has continuously expanded its existing or new market in relatively small areas.

3. Competition pattern:Metal forming machine tools can be used in almost all fields of industrial manufacturing, so the downstream of the industry and the competitive pattern are scattered; It mainly presents the overall situation that high-end products are mainly dominated by foreign manufacturers and domestic manufacturers of low-end products compete fiercely.

(4) The changing trend in the past 10 years

In 2020, the main business income of China's metal forming machine tool industry is 63.119 billion yuan. As shown in the following figure,Main revenue bottomed out in 2020;Even in the trough of the whole machine tool environment,Metal forming machine tools are relatively stable and even haveGrowth.

Yawei's performance has also maintained steady growth,Crossing the cycle to show the true color of the leader;2016-2017 is a prosperous scene, which is due to the early layout-the business layout of industrial transformation and upgrading, and the phased business layout of intelligent manufacturing transformation and upgrading.The rise of various emerging business segments has strongly supported the rapid improvement of performance, and made efforts to build a new leading enterprise in the field of intelligent manufacturing.

(5) Future scale

From the above introduction, we know that the scale of the whole industry is declining,At the peak of China's metal forming machine tools, the market size was nearly 100 billion, which dropped from a high of 96.2 billion in 2017 to 63.1 billion in 2020But the slowdown has obviously slowed down, and now the industry has recovered.It is predicted that forming machine tools will re-enter the upward cycle from 2021, and the market scale is expected to return to the level of 100 billion in the next few years.

Finally, it is worth reminding that although the industry has undergone certain adjustments, it does not mean that it is a good buying point now. However, in the medium term, there will be a wave of market with a high probability. Of course, friends who grab a rebound in the short term can be ignored. Let's be specific later

(The article was written on October 7)

Thank you for being so excellent and paying attention to me. It is not easy to be original. Thank you for the old irons who like to forward it ~ Risk warning: The views mentioned in this article only represent personal opinions, and the targets involved are not recommended. According to this, you can buy and sell at your own risk$Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.,Ltd.(601882)$$Jiangsu Yawei Machine Tool Co.,Ltd.(002559)$

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Disclaimer: The above content represents only the personal views of the poster and does not constitute investment advice on this platform.