Finally, I became a short seller against Tesla Motors (2)

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$@小虎AV

In the first nine months of 2021, new energy vehicles performed particularly well in new car sales. In the first nine months, it sold 2,156,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.9 times, accounting for 11.6% of new car sales; Among them, there were 357,500 vehicles in September, setting a new record for a single month.

However: In October, the sales volume of new energy narrow passenger cars was 317,000 units, down 5.0% from the previous month

The new car market situation is grim. In the fourth quarter, due to active regulation and control, the price of raw materials rose at a high level, the shortage of chips failed to be fundamentally alleviated, and the epidemic situation was distributed at multiple points. New car production and market sales will still be under tremendous pressure.

In the first nine months, the results of used car trading and motor vehicle scrapping were good, but the pulling effect on the new car market was still limited; New energy vehicles are bright, hitting new sales highs and improving penetration rate, but it is difficult to change the market structure of new cars temporarily, reduce the added value of automobile industry and retail sales of automobile products due to the decline of new cars, and increase the contribution rate of automobile consumption to economic growth and stimulate the growth point of GDP.

The Ministry of Commerce recently stated that "on the basis of preliminary work, we will continue to do a good job in promoting automobile consumption in the whole chain with relevant departments, and accelerate the construction of a new development pattern of the automobile market with cascade consumption, efficient use and green recycling." Crack the great pressure of the new car market as soon as possible.

My logical framework is:

(1) On the whole, I look at it as a whole: The whole world is facing economic problems, facing inflation, rising industrial production index, and people's willingness to consume is not strong. If they don't have enough to eat, who will buy a car?

(2) New energy sources, especially Tesla Motors, are mainly concentrated in several cities in Beishangguang, which once occupied about 74% of the sales volume, but the first-tier cities are also saturation. Wei Xiaoli and other new energy enterprises should share this cake.

(3) New energy subsidies will be reduced soon, and most people are not so rich. The views of an article by the Federation will be sent to everyone. I would like to ask, in the current economy, who dares to say that buying a car is like buying a mobile phone, and changing it in two or three years. With a selling price of nearly 300,000, what kind of family can afford the following point of view.

[Association Forum] It is normal for new energy vehicles to have a low preservation rate

(4) Batteries, chips and energy are in short supply, prices are rising, and profits are compressed. It will take a little time for these to be reflected in the report.

# 我的交易策略

Disclaimer: The above content represents only the personal views of the poster and does not constitute investment advice on this platform.