When the "Poison King" strikes, the market panics. This time, wait for the global water release!
During the weekend, the circle of friends was full of reports of various COVID-19 variants, and the screen was full of hidden worries.
For many investors, weekends seem unhappy. Two days of hard suffering is more like waiting for the last moment in prison. It is certain that tea and rice are not fragrant, and some people are flustered and at a loss, which has become a normal reaction.
No way, the global financial market plunge on Friday night was too alarming, the US and European stock markets plunged across the board, and the international crude oil fell by as much as 13%.People can't help but think of the horrible moments at the beginning of the outbreak last year.
Now, the Middle East stock market, which took the lead in opening, has started to plunge again. The Dubai Financial Market Composite Index has fallen by more than 5% at the opening, which is a panic index off the charts. It is a lie to say that it is not scary!
Will our A Hong Kong stock survive tomorrow? Now no one dares to think in the direction of luck.
In the longer term, now, not only the epidemic situation, but also geopolitics, supply chain crisis and global stagflation sequela brought by the last round of super water release have caused the global financial market to fall into a more complicated situation.
Under all kinds of great uncertainties, what should we do with our investment in the last month of this year and next year?
2021, less than expected
After the outbreak of the global COVID-19 pandemic last year, the economies and industries of many countries in the world quickly suffered a comprehensive blow. China is the country with the best anti-epidemic effect and the first to take the lead in economic recovery, but most overseas countries have been caught in economic collapse caused by epidemic prevention for a long time.
While fighting the epidemic, in order to save the precarious economy, many countries around the world have started a new round of unprecedented super water release, and then the effect of water release is obvious. Apart from the abnormally high inflation problem, the economies of most countries have recovered again, especially China, where many industries have performed strongly in economic activities since the second half of the year.
By the end of last year, the epidemic situation in China had basically returned to zero. Many people were sure that with the end of the epidemic and the economic support policies coming out in 2021, the economy would continue to usher in a retaliatory strong recovery, and then stimulate the stock market to usher in a retaliatory Big bounce. Therefore, in the trading day before the Spring Festival this year, A shares soared several times, and investors' confidence exploded.
However, the fact is that everyone "thinks too much", and even the results of many industries are completely opposite to what they imagined-2021 is even worse than 2020!
The Shanghai and Shenzhen index has only increased by 2% so far this year, which is even more embarrassing than no fig leaf. Of course, Hong Kong stocks are even worse, sandwiched between the US stocks that keep hitting new highs and the A shares that can't rise. It chose to lie down directly and give up treatment.
This year, there are too many industry trends, which fall far below everyone's expected lower limit.
Such as offline consumption and domestic tourism,Even if the circulation control is gradually liberalized, cinemas and restaurants no longer control the number of customers, but there is still no obvious consumption return.
Real estate is even worse and has been strictly controlled by policies.The real estate transaction was frozen, and the operating performance of one real estate enterprise plummeted and turned into a debt crisis. Several real estate giants who once thought were "too big to fail" fell down one after another. In the stock market, they have become the object of capital spurning.
Not to mention education,The capital logic of the whole industry has been squatted down. The market value of several education giants listed in Hong Kong and US stocks has evaporated by more than 80% since last year, and even dropped by 95% in a good future, turning into no future.
So are pharmaceutical stocks,Under the broadsword of anti-monopoly and centralized mining, CXO, APIs and medical devices are mostly spared. As the most growing golden track sought after by institutions and investors, the overall performance of the whole medicine has not even outperformed the ordinary manufacturing industry.
Hengrui Medicine, Zhifei Bio, Tongce Medical and Changchun High-tech have turned into harvesters for deep investors.
Behind this, there is actually a macro trend that is difficult to reverse even if it is super-released and a lot of policy stimulus, which can also be said to be a downward cycle, which did not suddenly appear during the epidemic last year.The epidemic has only disrupted the rhythm of this trend, that's all.
2022, a bad start
By the end of 2021, there must be many people expecting 2022 to be better than 2021. No one can predict the actual situation, but at least for now, it is not so wonderful.
Because of the greater uncertainty-the COVID-19 variant is coming again. The new variant Novel Coronavirus "Omikerong" is menacing, and it is the most variant COVID-19 variant virus so far. It contains more than 50 mutations in total, among which there are more than 30 mutations of spike protein alone, and its infectivity and anti-vaccine ability far exceed those of Delta variant strain.
What is even more worrying is that some scientists speculate that the new virus may mutate from AIDS patients. At present, it is impossible to confirm that vaccines or various specific drugs have obvious effects on the new variants, and it will take several weeks to confirm.
In just about 20 days, this variant has accounted for 90% of all varieties in South Africa, far exceeding the initial growth rate of Delta and Beta, which obviously raised the uncertainty of overseas economic recovery, which was also the chief culprit of the huge earthquake in global financial markets on Friday.
In the face of sudden mutation virus, many overseas countries made emergency control over the weekend. With Britain taking the lead in stopping border clearance in many countries, more and more countries such as Israel, the United States, Germany, Turkey and Russia have joined the array of emergency border control.
It is hard to say how much impact this mutated virus will have on the next capital market. At present, everyone holds their own opinions, some say that the infection rate is high, but the pathogenicity is not good, and some say that there is no need to be nervous. However, no matter what the rumors say, judging from the reaction of more and more countries blocking air routes and the terrorist collapse of capital markets, it should have a great impact.
Also, it is probably expected that if the current vaccine is not effective against this new variant, and because the transmission speed is relatively faster, especially the mutation site tends to be more complex, it means that it will take a lot of precious time to develop a corresponding new vaccine.
Although the world's six major vaccine giants acted quickly over the weekend, referring to the difficult process of COVID-19 vaccine's research and development before, it will take at least several months of empty window. Pfizer and BioNTech also said that the data of laboratory tests will not be available within two weeks at the latest, and bulk shipments will not begin within 100 days at the earliest. This will also mean that the global epidemic prevention and control will be more difficult than the previous two waves.
Although it is unlikely that the new variant epidemic will drag the global economy into a quagmire again, as long as there is a probability, capital must take precautions. Once there is more power to evade, a greater chain reaction will appear. This needs to be seriously considered.
More than the epidemic
In addition to the epidemic, from a global perspective, there are more risk factors that profoundly and inevitably affect the global financial markets, including China.
If the epidemic is a natural disaster caused by force majeure, then the risk caused by geopolitics is a helpless man-made disaster.
Since last year, the epidemic has turned the global economy into a pot of rotten porridge, but even so, many countries still have not United to tide over the difficulties, the negotiations between the United States and Iran have gone off, the wars in the Middle East have been incessant, the energy relations between Russia and Europe have been tense, and many resource countries have to restrict exports, resulting in the collapse of global supply links and having a comprehensive impact on economic recovery.
From the second half of last year to the first half of this year, the supercycle of commodity price increases detonated the global asset price bubble, and many countries fell into false economic prosperity and stagflation brought about by currency irrigation.
It can be said that the problems facing the global economy at present are the sequelae brought by this round of super water release in various countries, and none of them are innocent.
Turkey's currency collapsed in November 2021, the first month after the Fed launched Taper.
There are still many small countries with high external economic dependence in the world. To some extent, they are even more vulnerable than Turkey's economy. Now Turkey has fallen, and they still don't know how long they can last.
It is difficult to collect "water"
Without this sudden variant epidemic, many countries originally planned to enter the water collection cycle, and now the United States has started taper.
But now this new variant virus has brought new uncertainties. If the subsequent virus continues to evolve, it is expected that the speed of the Fed taper will slow down and the interest rate hike will not be advanced.
For us, the counter-cyclical adjustment policy may come upWhether it is monetary policy or fiscal policy.
Last Wednesday, the central bank removed two key words from the statement of the currency implementation report in the third quarter, which means that the bottom of credit has become a unanimous expectation. First, the expression "resolutely do not engage in flood irrigation" has been deleted; Second, the expression "manage the general gate of money" has been deleted. The former corresponds to the liquidity of the inter-bank market, while the latter corresponds to the financing of credit cooperatives. In addition, in the policy tone, "adhere to normal monetary policy" has been deleted.
Under the short-term suppression of market sentiment by the haze of new strains, the future development trend is still unclear, which means that the pace of overseas economic recovery and monetary easing exit may slow down. It can be predicted that the Central Economic Work Conference in December will be more active in stabilizing growth.
In a broader sense, there is still no other way for countries around the world to deal with the epidemic except to release water. Although this is a helpless move to drink poison and quench thirst, it is highly probable that 2022 will be a year of continuing to release water.
However, releasing water is not the root of solving the problem, it will only delay the problems that should be exposed indefinitely. However, from the perspective of capital market, as long as the water is released, the stock and asset price bubbles will definitely continue to "blow", just like the US stock market last year.
Especially for our country, counter-cyclical expectations may increase, so it seems that our stock market need not worry too much, at least in the short term and on the surface.
As for whether there is wine and drunkenness today, the horse will have a carnival at the end of the day when he runs, dances and dances, only God knows.
After the painful 2020 and the confused 2021, everyone is looking forward to 2022, but you never know which will come first, tomorrow or accident.
The doomsday clock has never been closer to zero than it is now, but look at the people around you, who look like the doomsday is coming. Just like the just-concluded COP26 Summit, more than 100 countries signed military orders for carbon neutrality and carbon peaking. Everyone knows that if the Earth's temperature rises by 2 degrees, 3 degrees and 4 degrees, human beings will be finished, but no one is willing to give up the present carnival and do even a little thing for the Earth to lower by one degree.
The same is true of the current global financial market.
If a new round of COVID-19 variants really spreads overseas, is it another round of water release? Then will the financial market repeat the performance of last year?
If this is the case, it is certain that in 2022, the high probability will not get better.
Disclaimer: The above content represents only the personal views of the poster and does not constitute investment advice on this platform.