The new virus Omicron is really more powerful, but we don't need to panic too much!

Presumably over the weekend, everyone was swept away by the South African Novel Coronavirus variant incident. WHO No.26 named the virus after Omicron, one of the 24 Greek letters.

After being named Omicron, there are not many Greek letters left for the virus. Named after the Greek alphabet, WHO indirectly determined that it may be more contagious or lethal from the side. What scares everyone even more is that it may make the existing vaccines ineffective.

European and American indexes fell.

US stocks and Dow fell 2.53%; The Nasdaq fell 2.23%. Major European indexes, Germany's DAX30 index fell 4.22%, Britain's FTSE 100 index fell 3.68%, and France's CAC40 index fell 4.75%.

The crude oil market also plummeted. WTI crude oil futures fell more than 13% to $68.17/barrel.

From the earliest COVID-19 to Delta, which mutated later, and now to Omicron, every time a new virus mutation appears, everyone will feel panic, which is normal. People will always worry about unknown things, and the financial market is no exception, and they will give feedback on the ups and downs of the market at the first time.

Unknown is often the most terrible thing. . But we know very little about Omicron.

However, when we get familiar with it, the fear of the unknown will slowly disappear. Only two days have passed since the media report on the 26th, and everyone has buffered a lot of panic caused by the new strain, and analyzed and recognized it more rationally.

What I can understand is that if the fatality rate of a virus is particularly high, its infectivity will be relatively weak, because the host dies and the virus cannot spread, such as Ebola virus; Similarly, if it is highly contagious, its mortality rate will be relatively weak, such as influenza virus.

According to the existing news, the infectivity of Omicron virus is very strong, so it is inferred from common sense that the lethality should be relatively low. .

Of course, this is just the cognition of ordinary people. What is the authoritative analysis? Experts from Zhang Wenhong shared some professional opinions on Weibo. I roughly summarized the contents:

1. The infectivity of Omicron is very strong, but the severe rate and mortality rate should be further observed. (Professor Zhang is more rigorous, and my personal interpretation of the fatality rate should be relatively low)

2. Because there are too many mutations in Omicron, the existing vaccines may need to be overthrown and re-developed, thus breaking the epidemic prevention systems of most countries in the world and spreading, thus causing a series of economic and social problems. (This is the reason for the panic in Europe and America, Most of them have adopted the policy of lying flat, provided that the vaccine is effective and popularized on a large scale. Once the effectiveness of the vaccine is broken through, the collective immunization policy coexisting with the virus will also fail. Therefore, Britain, Israel and other countries will issue response policies as soon as possible, and the United States will also impose entry restrictions on South Africa and other countries.)

3. China's epidemic prevention emergency system and "zero clearing strategy" will not make Omicron virus have too much impact on China. (Our country does not engage in collective immunization. Even if it pays a higher cost, it must be strictly guarded against death. No matter which country's personnel enter the country, they will implement a strict isolation "clearing" policy without discrimination. Even if there are individual escapes, there are still layers of isolation and epidemic prevention systems in China. It will not spread widely)

How to get to the market outlook?

The turmoil in the global financial market and the virus are only a sufficient and unnecessary condition. The core reason should be that the Federal Reserve is worried about more inflation, and the accelerated Taper policy is expected to enter the interest rate hike cycle and start monetary tightening in June next year.

In addition, due to the water release policy of the epidemic in Europe and America, their financial markets have been running at a high level and are facing the pressure of adjustment. The virus is just a vent.

However, our country's monetary policy in the past two years, even if the epidemic situation is not as big as that in Europe and America, A shares are a structural market in the past two years, which has been fluctuating at a low level, with little room for decline.

Although the decline of global commodities is bad for the upstream raw material enterprises in our country, it is good for the whole economy and can effectively solve the problem of imported inflation.

Our country's PPI index is now soaring, which has reached a new high in the past 20 years, with a year-on-year increase of 13.5%. The sharp drop in international crude oil just reduces the cost of related upstream raw materials, which is equivalent to helping China reduce PPI, thus reducing the transmission of excessive PPI to CPI. (PPI is the industrial production index and CPI is the household consumption index. Friends without professional knowledge can simply understand PPI as the factory production price and CPI as the consumer retail price.)

So if coal, oil, natural gas, iron ore, etc.Prices can fall by a wave, which is really great for the people's livelihood of our country. (Now it takes 8 yuan to add 95 oil, and I can't afford to drive.)

In the past two years, many people have questioned why China did not release foreign water. Because of our country's effective epidemic prevention policy, the economic recovery is at least one year earlier than that of foreign countries, so the economic recovery cycle is different, and the amount of water released in the epidemic is different.

This incident has provided more room for China's monetary easing policy. At least for the coming year, our monetary policy will be loose rather than tighter.

The future direction of world finance is that Europe and the United States will have faster interest rate hikes due to higher inflationary pressures, and global liquidity will continue to tighten; China's future monetary policy may be correspondingly looser. Thanks to our excellent epidemic prevention policy, the economic recovery cycle has not been disrupted too much by viruses.

From this point of view, our country should not panic, regardless of economy or people's livelihood. It is not us who should panic. .

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Disclaimer: The above content represents only the personal views of the poster and does not constitute investment advice on this platform.

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