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- 小虎妞妞LOVE小虎妞妞LOVE
  ·2022-07-09
  Great!
  突传重磅！拜登将于本周宣布降低对华关税？
  据华尔街日报报道，美国总统拜登预计将很快降低对中国进口商品的部分关税，知情人士说，拜登最近几周一直悬而未决，他可能在本周宣布自己的决定。在上述消息公布之后，离岸人民币兑美直拉150点，A50也有显著反应。那么，利好究竟有多大呢？突传重磅，本周宣布？受上述消息刺激，离岸人民币直线拉升150点。有研究机构测算，美国对华加征关税直接推升CPI约0.22%。美驻华大使发声不过，对于中美关系可能仍要抱有一丝谨慎态度。
  突传重磅！拜登将于本周宣布降低对华关税？
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- 小虎妞妞LOVE小虎妞妞LOVE
  ·2022-06-23
  I cannot agree anymore!
  Taiwan Semiconductor: You Will Not Believe How Cheap This Wide Moat Company Has Become
  SummaryWe believe Taiwan Semiconductor is one of the most attractive businesses on the planet, and c
  Taiwan Semiconductor: You Will Not Believe How Cheap This Wide Moat Company Has Become
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1（340亿美元25%关税）和List 2（160亿美元25%关税），但也提出“将综合考虑List 3（2000亿美元25%关税）和List 4（1120亿美元7.5%关税）”。取消List 1、List 2、List 3、List 4的关税相当于全口径关税分别下降1.1%、0.5%、5.9%、1.4%。</p><p>据此前路透社报道，拜登计划取消网络路由器、蓝牙产品、吸尘器、行李和乙烯铺地材料等消费品的关税，但排除削减与301条款调查相关的电路板、半导体产品以及其他“战略”商品的关税。</p><p>目前，美国通货膨胀处于40年最高水平。6月23日，中国商务部新闻发言人束珏婷表示，在当前高通胀形势下，美方早取消对华加征关税，消费者和企业就能早受益。中美双方应相向而行、共同努力，为经贸合作创造氛围和条件，维护全球产业链供应链稳定，造福两国人民和世界。</p><p>受上述消息刺激，离岸人民币直线拉升150点。A50期指也有较为明显的反应。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc39472c42304a52ae5f70f7f5d9ad9b\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>利好有多大？</p><p>有研究机构测算，美国对华加征关税直接推升CPI约0.22%。在不考虑关税豁免的情况下，2021年美国依据301条款对华加征关税带来的总成本约为483亿美元，约抬高美国CPI同比0.22个百分点。此外，加征关税也可能通过“竞争效应”等渠道间接影响价格水平（有研究认为间接渠道的影响可能是直接效应的3倍以上），不过关于间接效应是否显著，尚有较大争论。对于美国而言，取消关税对于通胀可能会取到一定的缓解作用。</p><p><b>对中国而言，有国际大行预计，如果美国真的降低了对中国的关税或者直接全面关税，人民币在这种状态下预计会升值4.9%。也就是不管按照哪种汇率计算，这个幅度都相当于上涨3200点左右。</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>认为，关税豁免或若取消将提升海外需求，增厚相关出口企业利润，具有全球性竞争优势的中国企业将长期受益关税豁免取消。在中国产业升级时代背景下，出口结构调整将作为我国外贸高质量增长的主要动力。关税豁免或若取消将提升中国产品海外竞争力和需求量，并增厚出口企业利润，助力企业做大做强。</p><p>另据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">广发证券</a>研报，在即将到期的三份清单中，美国进口金额均居前的申万一级行业为机械设备（三份清单中占比分别为51.4%、17.1%、14.6%）、电力设备&amp;家电（26.3%，46.7%，12.8%）、电子&amp;医药（如光学光电子、医疗器械）（13.4%，6.3%，0.5%）等；设备（20.8%）、汽车（9.6%）等。</p><p>综合以上，若美对华关税出现调整，可能受益的方向主要为：机械设备（通用设备、专用设备等）、医疗器械（手术仪器）、家电（黑色家电）、汽车（整车及零部件）、电子（光学光电子、元件、半导体等）、电力设备（光伏等）。</p><p>美驻华大使发声</p><p>不过，对于中美关系可能仍要抱有一丝谨慎态度。</p><p>据上观新闻，7月4日，在北京举行的世界和平论坛上，美国驻华大使尼古拉斯·伯恩斯发言表示，10年前的中美关系，可以表述成相互接触，同时在一些问题上竞争。如今的中美关系，则应表述成处于竞争性的关系，同时也想接触。</p><p>伯恩斯说，中美两国在诸多领域存在竞争。在经济贸易领域，有一些根本性的分歧。在技术领域，也存在竞争，特别是战略产业、军事领域以及保密技术，包括量子、科学、计算机和人工智能。在安全领域，在印度洋、西<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">太平洋</a>存在一些重大分歧，还有网络空间的安全问题。此外，中美在价值观上也存在竞争。</p><p>他说：“中美将会继续竞争，但需要在竞争时尽量减少无意义的冲突。两国都不想出现冲突，都想保持两国之间的和平关系。”</p><p>他表示，中美也在寻求合作。在应对气候变化方面，两国有着共同的责任，美国也希望同中国进行合作。在全球卫生方面，中美在过去一周里已经进行有价值的对话。两国在禁毒方面也在合作。此外，两国也在共同推动解决粮食安全问题。</p><p>论坛由清华大学主办，中国人民外交学会协办。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>突传重磅！拜登将于本周宣布降低对华关税？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n突传重磅！拜登将于本周宣布降低对华关税？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-07-05 07:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>大家期盼的利好可能要来了！</p><p>据华尔街日报报道，美国总统拜登预计将很快降低对中国进口商品的部分关税，知情人士说，拜登最近几周一直悬而未决，他可能在本周宣布自己的决定。在上述消息公布之后，离岸人民币兑美直拉150点，A50也有显著反应。那么，利好究竟有多大呢？</p><p>值得一提的是，7月4日，在北京举行的世界和平论坛上，美国驻华大使尼古拉斯·伯恩斯发言表示，10年前的中美关系，可以表述成相互接触，同时在一些问题上竞争。如今的中美关系，则应表述成处于竞争性的关系，同时也想接触。</p><p>突传重磅，本周宣布？</p><p>华尔街日报周日消息，拜登总统预计将很快降低对中国进口商品的部分关税，这一决定受制于相互竞争的政策目标：解决通胀问题和保持对北京的经济压力。</p><p>知情人士说，拜登最近几周一直悬而未决，他可能在本周宣布自己的决定。它可能包括暂停对服装和学校用品等消费品征收关税，以及启动一个广泛的框架，允许进口商申请关税豁免。</p><p>6月14日，白宫发言人卡琳·让-皮埃尔在回答记者问题时表示，拜登政府正在就取消部分对华加征关税进行内部讨论。当时有记者提问称，有媒体报道说拜登赞成取消对华消费品加征关税。对此，卡琳·让-皮埃尔表示，拜登政府一开始便认为特朗普加征的一些关税是“不负责任的”，非但未促进美国经济或安全，反而提高家庭和企业的成本。</p><p>2022年5月美国贸易代表办公室发布对华301关税进行法定四年的审查，并援引307条款，将关税调降合理化和程序化。此次审查针对List 1（340亿美元25%关税）和List 2（160亿美元25%关税），但也提出“将综合考虑List 3（2000亿美元25%关税）和List 4（1120亿美元7.5%关税）”。取消List 1、List 2、List 3、List 4的关税相当于全口径关税分别下降1.1%、0.5%、5.9%、1.4%。</p><p>据此前路透社报道，拜登计划取消网络路由器、蓝牙产品、吸尘器、行李和乙烯铺地材料等消费品的关税，但排除削减与301条款调查相关的电路板、半导体产品以及其他“战略”商品的关税。</p><p>目前，美国通货膨胀处于40年最高水平。6月23日，中国商务部新闻发言人束珏婷表示，在当前高通胀形势下，美方早取消对华加征关税，消费者和企业就能早受益。中美双方应相向而行、共同努力，为经贸合作创造氛围和条件，维护全球产业链供应链稳定，造福两国人民和世界。</p><p>受上述消息刺激，离岸人民币直线拉升150点。A50期指也有较为明显的反应。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc39472c42304a52ae5f70f7f5d9ad9b\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>利好有多大？</p><p>有研究机构测算，美国对华加征关税直接推升CPI约0.22%。在不考虑关税豁免的情况下，2021年美国依据301条款对华加征关税带来的总成本约为483亿美元，约抬高美国CPI同比0.22个百分点。此外，加征关税也可能通过“竞争效应”等渠道间接影响价格水平（有研究认为间接渠道的影响可能是直接效应的3倍以上），不过关于间接效应是否显著，尚有较大争论。对于美国而言，取消关税对于通胀可能会取到一定的缓解作用。</p><p><b>对中国而言，有国际大行预计，如果美国真的降低了对中国的关税或者直接全面关税，人民币在这种状态下预计会升值4.9%。也就是不管按照哪种汇率计算，这个幅度都相当于上涨3200点左右。</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>认为，关税豁免或若取消将提升海外需求，增厚相关出口企业利润，具有全球性竞争优势的中国企业将长期受益关税豁免取消。在中国产业升级时代背景下，出口结构调整将作为我国外贸高质量增长的主要动力。关税豁免或若取消将提升中国产品海外竞争力和需求量，并增厚出口企业利润，助力企业做大做强。</p><p>另据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">广发证券</a>研报，在即将到期的三份清单中，美国进口金额均居前的申万一级行业为机械设备（三份清单中占比分别为51.4%、17.1%、14.6%）、电力设备&amp;家电（26.3%，46.7%，12.8%）、电子&amp;医药（如光学光电子、医疗器械）（13.4%，6.3%，0.5%）等；设备（20.8%）、汽车（9.6%）等。</p><p>综合以上，若美对华关税出现调整，可能受益的方向主要为：机械设备（通用设备、专用设备等）、医疗器械（手术仪器）、家电（黑色家电）、汽车（整车及零部件）、电子（光学光电子、元件、半导体等）、电力设备（光伏等）。</p><p>美驻华大使发声</p><p>不过，对于中美关系可能仍要抱有一丝谨慎态度。</p><p>据上观新闻，7月4日，在北京举行的世界和平论坛上，美国驻华大使尼古拉斯·伯恩斯发言表示，10年前的中美关系，可以表述成相互接触，同时在一些问题上竞争。如今的中美关系，则应表述成处于竞争性的关系，同时也想接触。</p><p>伯恩斯说，中美两国在诸多领域存在竞争。在经济贸易领域，有一些根本性的分歧。在技术领域，也存在竞争，特别是战略产业、军事领域以及保密技术，包括量子、科学、计算机和人工智能。在安全领域，在印度洋、西<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">太平洋</a>存在一些重大分歧，还有网络空间的安全问题。此外，中美在价值观上也存在竞争。</p><p>他说：“中美将会继续竞争，但需要在竞争时尽量减少无意义的冲突。两国都不想出现冲突，都想保持两国之间的和平关系。”</p><p>他表示，中美也在寻求合作。在应对气候变化方面，两国有着共同的责任，美国也希望同中国进行合作。在全球卫生方面，中美在过去一周里已经进行有价值的对话。两国在禁毒方面也在合作。此外，两国也在共同推动解决粮食安全问题。</p><p>论坛由清华大学主办，中国人民外交学会协办。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6c7de2e2b4a48c98105a85ebdd389ea","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2249268345","content_text":"大家期盼的利好可能要来了！据华尔街日报报道，美国总统拜登预计将很快降低对中国进口商品的部分关税，知情人士说，拜登最近几周一直悬而未决，他可能在本周宣布自己的决定。在上述消息公布之后，离岸人民币兑美直拉150点，A50也有显著反应。那么，利好究竟有多大呢？值得一提的是，7月4日，在北京举行的世界和平论坛上，美国驻华大使尼古拉斯·伯恩斯发言表示，10年前的中美关系，可以表述成相互接触，同时在一些问题上竞争。如今的中美关系，则应表述成处于竞争性的关系，同时也想接触。突传重磅，本周宣布？华尔街日报周日消息，拜登总统预计将很快降低对中国进口商品的部分关税，这一决定受制于相互竞争的政策目标：解决通胀问题和保持对北京的经济压力。知情人士说，拜登最近几周一直悬而未决，他可能在本周宣布自己的决定。它可能包括暂停对服装和学校用品等消费品征收关税，以及启动一个广泛的框架，允许进口商申请关税豁免。6月14日，白宫发言人卡琳·让-皮埃尔在回答记者问题时表示，拜登政府正在就取消部分对华加征关税进行内部讨论。当时有记者提问称，有媒体报道说拜登赞成取消对华消费品加征关税。对此，卡琳·让-皮埃尔表示，拜登政府一开始便认为特朗普加征的一些关税是“不负责任的”，非但未促进美国经济或安全，反而提高家庭和企业的成本。2022年5月美国贸易代表办公室发布对华301关税进行法定四年的审查，并援引307条款，将关税调降合理化和程序化。此次审查针对List 1（340亿美元25%关税）和List 2（160亿美元25%关税），但也提出“将综合考虑List 3（2000亿美元25%关税）和List 4（1120亿美元7.5%关税）”。取消List 1、List 2、List 3、List 4的关税相当于全口径关税分别下降1.1%、0.5%、5.9%、1.4%。据此前路透社报道，拜登计划取消网络路由器、蓝牙产品、吸尘器、行李和乙烯铺地材料等消费品的关税，但排除削减与301条款调查相关的电路板、半导体产品以及其他“战略”商品的关税。目前，美国通货膨胀处于40年最高水平。6月23日，中国商务部新闻发言人束珏婷表示，在当前高通胀形势下，美方早取消对华加征关税，消费者和企业就能早受益。中美双方应相向而行、共同努力，为经贸合作创造氛围和条件，维护全球产业链供应链稳定，造福两国人民和世界。受上述消息刺激，离岸人民币直线拉升150点。A50期指也有较为明显的反应。利好有多大？有研究机构测算，美国对华加征关税直接推升CPI约0.22%。在不考虑关税豁免的情况下，2021年美国依据301条款对华加征关税带来的总成本约为483亿美元，约抬高美国CPI同比0.22个百分点。此外，加征关税也可能通过“竞争效应”等渠道间接影响价格水平（有研究认为间接渠道的影响可能是直接效应的3倍以上），不过关于间接效应是否显著，尚有较大争论。对于美国而言，取消关税对于通胀可能会取到一定的缓解作用。对中国而言，有国际大行预计，如果美国真的降低了对中国的关税或者直接全面关税，人民币在这种状态下预计会升值4.9%。也就是不管按照哪种汇率计算，这个幅度都相当于上涨3200点左右。中信证券认为，关税豁免或若取消将提升海外需求，增厚相关出口企业利润，具有全球性竞争优势的中国企业将长期受益关税豁免取消。在中国产业升级时代背景下，出口结构调整将作为我国外贸高质量增长的主要动力。关税豁免或若取消将提升中国产品海外竞争力和需求量，并增厚出口企业利润，助力企业做大做强。另据广发证券研报，在即将到期的三份清单中，美国进口金额均居前的申万一级行业为机械设备（三份清单中占比分别为51.4%、17.1%、14.6%）、电力设备&家电（26.3%，46.7%，12.8%）、电子&医药（如光学光电子、医疗器械）（13.4%，6.3%，0.5%）等；设备（20.8%）、汽车（9.6%）等。综合以上，若美对华关税出现调整，可能受益的方向主要为：机械设备（通用设备、专用设备等）、医疗器械（手术仪器）、家电（黑色家电）、汽车（整车及零部件）、电子（光学光电子、元件、半导体等）、电力设备（光伏等）。美驻华大使发声不过，对于中美关系可能仍要抱有一丝谨慎态度。据上观新闻，7月4日，在北京举行的世界和平论坛上，美国驻华大使尼古拉斯·伯恩斯发言表示，10年前的中美关系，可以表述成相互接触，同时在一些问题上竞争。如今的中美关系，则应表述成处于竞争性的关系，同时也想接触。伯恩斯说，中美两国在诸多领域存在竞争。在经济贸易领域，有一些根本性的分歧。在技术领域，也存在竞争，特别是战略产业、军事领域以及保密技术，包括量子、科学、计算机和人工智能。在安全领域，在印度洋、西太平洋存在一些重大分歧，还有网络空间的安全问题。此外，中美在价值观上也存在竞争。他说：“中美将会继续竞争，但需要在竞争时尽量减少无意义的冲突。两国都不想出现冲突，都想保持两国之间的和平关系。”他表示，中美也在寻求合作。在应对气候变化方面，两国有着共同的责任，美国也希望同中国进行合作。在全球卫生方面，中美在过去一周里已经进行有价值的对话。两国在禁毒方面也在合作。此外，两国也在共同推动解决粮食安全问题。论坛由清华大学主办，中国人民外交学会协办。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":683906780,"gmtCreate":1655940236344,"gmtModify":1704863612759,"author":{"id":"4118999454459970","authorId":"4118999454459970","name":"小虎妞妞LOVE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cf7b6b266c4a91a12e451be54d907e9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I cannot agree anymore!","listText":"I cannot agree anymore!","text":"I cannot agree anymore!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683906780","repostId":"1177117000","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1177117000","pubTimestamp":1655793966,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177117000?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-06-21 14:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Taiwan Semiconductor: You Will Not Believe How Cheap This Wide Moat Company Has Become","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177117000","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryWe believe Taiwan Semiconductor is one of the most attractive businesses on the planet, and c","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>We believe Taiwan Semiconductor is one of the most attractive businesses on the planet, and certainly one of the few companies with operating margins above 40%.</li><li>The size of TSMC&#39;s competitive moat is enormous, which has allowed it to earn superior returns on invested capital and grow at a very high pace.</li><li>Our estimate for fair value is $179, which means TSM stock would return &gt;100% if they were to trade in line with our estimated valuation.</li><li>There are reasons to believe growth will continue for at least a few more years, and that the historical cyclicality of the industry will moderate going forward.</li></ul><p>If we could only invest in ten companies for the next ten years, we would still choose Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM) as one of them. We believe this is one of the most attractive businesses in the planet, and it is currently on sale for a variety of reasons including fear that growth might cool down if the economy enters a recession. We are not overly concerned, as we believe the share price is already more than pricing slower growth.</p><p>Historically there has been significant cyclicality due to the fact that foundries tended to add excessive capacity during good times that resulted in under-utilization during downturns. This would result in much lower profitability, or even sometimes in losses.</p><p>While there might still be some cyclicality left in the foundry business, we are much less concerned for Taiwan Semiconductor because most of its profits come from leading nodes, where it is one of only two foundries possessing the most advanced technology. The foundries focused on the more commoditized old nodes should be more worried. Taiwan Semiconductor has a long waiting list of customers that could replace a large part of the potential demand reduction resulting from a recession. Most of its competitors are confined to low-end manufacturing due to prohibitive costs and engineering know-how associated with the leading-edge technology.</p><p><b>TSMC&#39;s Competitive Advantages</b></p><p>Taiwan Semiconductor&#39;s competitive moat has multiple sources, including the patents and trade secrets necessary to manufacture the leading semiconductor nodes. This is not all, however, as the company is also a very efficient manufacturer, which combine to make Taiwan Semiconductor a low-cost producer for high technology chips.</p><p>Being able to manufacture the leading semiconductor nodes also has other advantages including improved energy efficiency for the customer&#39;s end products.</p><p>Less evident, Taiwan Semiconductor also benefits from efficient scale dynamics. That is, where investment is very high and only one or two companies are needed. Examples of efficient scale include airports and pipelines. Once a company goes forward with the massive investment necessary to develop these assets, it makes little sense for another company to try to compete.</p><p><b>Taiwan Semiconductor Financials</b></p><p>The strength of the competitive advantages is reflected in the significantly above average profit margins the company has maintained over the last decade. Few companies in the planet have operating margins above 40%, and the ones that do usually have a very strong competitive moat.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/452ce1b4eae00d61b4144f0c60b07b3d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>The competitive moat has also resulted in attractive returns on invested capital. Taiwan Semiconductor has averaged a ROIC of ~21% over the last ten years, and it has been higher recently at ~24%. This is not an asset-light company since it requires billions in investment. It is therefore close to the ideal business, one that can absorb enormous amounts of capital and still deliver very high rates of return on it.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdd2b1e724f7dc5345f7ad2a319e2dc5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YChartsGrowth</p><p>Another characteristic making Taiwan Semiconductor a superior business is the high growth it has delivered, growing revenue over the last ten years at a ~16% average. While it has been relatively cyclical, the average is high, and it has been higher than average in recent quarters, with the most recent one at ~36%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e73425fe29ab42ea0f276b2a594d3cbf\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>While in previous cycles most of the semiconductor demand came from PC&#39;s and mobile devices, it has broadened to include high-performance computing, automotive, IoT, and other smaller segments. This broadening should help moderate the cyclicality, as the strength in one segment could help offset weakness in another. Applications like machine learning and artificial intelligence are growing particularly quickly, and they tend to use GPUs/TPUs manufactured with the most advanced nodes. That is why we are happy to see that about half of Taiwan Semiconductor&#39;s revenue comes from its two most advanced nodes, 5nm and 7nm.</p><p><b>TSM Stock Valuation</b></p><p>With the company firing on all cylinders and the share price having declined significantly, the valuation has become quite attractive. Despite the quality of the business, shares are trading at only ~10x EV/EBITDA, close to the ~9.7x average over the last decade. The forward EV/EBITDA is only ~8.7x.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ce7b7d5cd5dd73eb86a7fc18e73cd2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>The price/earnings ratio is below the ten-year average of ~19x, at ~18.5x, and the forward p/e is only ~14.7x. These are cheap multiples considering the impressive margins, growth, ROIC, etc. that the business has been delivering.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8571d43eebd49bd6e0f33b461123719\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>Over the last ten years earnings have grown at an average of 21%. For our discounted cash flow model, we&#39;ll assume growth is reduce in half to be conservative, and because of the size of the company it will start becoming harder to move the needle in terms of growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b115980c323a9d83e540b81b0ac663e9\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>In our simple discounted cash flow model for the first three years, we use the average analyst earnings estimate as compiled by Seeking Alpha and assume 10.5% growth for the next seven years (half of what the company delivered the previous decade). We assume a terminal growth rate of 5%, and discount everything by 10%. We get a net present value per share of $179, which is more than 2x where shares trade currently. This shows how undervalued shares have become if the company can continue delivering growth of at least half its historical rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f0170c5a83e611ac6bc29bdf0e1605\" tg-width=\"437\" tg-height=\"477\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>TSMC Q2 2022 Guidance</b></p><p>We are encouraged by the strong guidance the company gave for the second quarter of 2022. The company expects revenue to be between $17.6 billion and $18.2 billion. They also expect gross profit margin to be between 56% and 58%, and operating profit margin to be between 45% and 47%.</p><p><b>Risks</b></p><p>The main risk we see with a long-term investment in Taiwan Semiconductor is that of technology obsolescence if competition manages to outrun them in semiconductor node development. So far, the company has done a terrific job staying ahead of the curve, investing heavily in R&amp;D to make sure competitors are not able to catch up with them. In fact, the company has been reinvesting ~8% of revenue into R&amp;D. That said, competitors catching up is a real risk, and probably the most important one here.</p><p>In terms of the balance sheet, we do not see any major liquidity risk, with the company having more cash and short-term investments than long-term debt, and the Altman Z-score being a very high 7.5.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/168524457d99d4f6ec2d02308519ba70\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data by YCharts</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taiwan Semiconductor: You Will Not Believe How Cheap This Wide Moat Company Has Become</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaiwan Semiconductor: You Will Not Believe How Cheap This Wide Moat Company Has Become\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-21 14:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519278-taiwan-semiconductor-wide-moat-company-stock-cheap><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryWe believe Taiwan Semiconductor is one of the most attractive businesses on the planet, and certainly one of the few companies with operating margins above 40%.The size of TSMC's competitive ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519278-taiwan-semiconductor-wide-moat-company-stock-cheap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519278-taiwan-semiconductor-wide-moat-company-stock-cheap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177117000","content_text":"SummaryWe believe Taiwan Semiconductor is one of the most attractive businesses on the planet, and certainly one of the few companies with operating margins above 40%.The size of TSMC's competitive moat is enormous, which has allowed it to earn superior returns on invested capital and grow at a very high pace.Our estimate for fair value is $179, which means TSM stock would return >100% if they were to trade in line with our estimated valuation.There are reasons to believe growth will continue for at least a few more years, and that the historical cyclicality of the industry will moderate going forward.If we could only invest in ten companies for the next ten years, we would still choose Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM) as one of them. We believe this is one of the most attractive businesses in the planet, and it is currently on sale for a variety of reasons including fear that growth might cool down if the economy enters a recession. We are not overly concerned, as we believe the share price is already more than pricing slower growth.Historically there has been significant cyclicality due to the fact that foundries tended to add excessive capacity during good times that resulted in under-utilization during downturns. This would result in much lower profitability, or even sometimes in losses.While there might still be some cyclicality left in the foundry business, we are much less concerned for Taiwan Semiconductor because most of its profits come from leading nodes, where it is one of only two foundries possessing the most advanced technology. The foundries focused on the more commoditized old nodes should be more worried. Taiwan Semiconductor has a long waiting list of customers that could replace a large part of the potential demand reduction resulting from a recession. Most of its competitors are confined to low-end manufacturing due to prohibitive costs and engineering know-how associated with the leading-edge technology.TSMC's Competitive AdvantagesTaiwan Semiconductor's competitive moat has multiple sources, including the patents and trade secrets necessary to manufacture the leading semiconductor nodes. This is not all, however, as the company is also a very efficient manufacturer, which combine to make Taiwan Semiconductor a low-cost producer for high technology chips.Being able to manufacture the leading semiconductor nodes also has other advantages including improved energy efficiency for the customer's end products.Less evident, Taiwan Semiconductor also benefits from efficient scale dynamics. That is, where investment is very high and only one or two companies are needed. Examples of efficient scale include airports and pipelines. Once a company goes forward with the massive investment necessary to develop these assets, it makes little sense for another company to try to compete.Taiwan Semiconductor FinancialsThe strength of the competitive advantages is reflected in the significantly above average profit margins the company has maintained over the last decade. Few companies in the planet have operating margins above 40%, and the ones that do usually have a very strong competitive moat.Data by YChartsThe competitive moat has also resulted in attractive returns on invested capital. Taiwan Semiconductor has averaged a ROIC of ~21% over the last ten years, and it has been higher recently at ~24%. This is not an asset-light company since it requires billions in investment. It is therefore close to the ideal business, one that can absorb enormous amounts of capital and still deliver very high rates of return on it.Data by YChartsGrowthAnother characteristic making Taiwan Semiconductor a superior business is the high growth it has delivered, growing revenue over the last ten years at a ~16% average. While it has been relatively cyclical, the average is high, and it has been higher than average in recent quarters, with the most recent one at ~36%.Data by YChartsWhile in previous cycles most of the semiconductor demand came from PC's and mobile devices, it has broadened to include high-performance computing, automotive, IoT, and other smaller segments. This broadening should help moderate the cyclicality, as the strength in one segment could help offset weakness in another. Applications like machine learning and artificial intelligence are growing particularly quickly, and they tend to use GPUs/TPUs manufactured with the most advanced nodes. That is why we are happy to see that about half of Taiwan Semiconductor's revenue comes from its two most advanced nodes, 5nm and 7nm.TSM Stock ValuationWith the company firing on all cylinders and the share price having declined significantly, the valuation has become quite attractive. Despite the quality of the business, shares are trading at only ~10x EV/EBITDA, close to the ~9.7x average over the last decade. The forward EV/EBITDA is only ~8.7x.Data by YChartsThe price/earnings ratio is below the ten-year average of ~19x, at ~18.5x, and the forward p/e is only ~14.7x. These are cheap multiples considering the impressive margins, growth, ROIC, etc. that the business has been delivering.Data by YChartsOver the last ten years earnings have grown at an average of 21%. For our discounted cash flow model, we'll assume growth is reduce in half to be conservative, and because of the size of the company it will start becoming harder to move the needle in terms of growth.Data by YChartsIn our simple discounted cash flow model for the first three years, we use the average analyst earnings estimate as compiled by Seeking Alpha and assume 10.5% growth for the next seven years (half of what the company delivered the previous decade). We assume a terminal growth rate of 5%, and discount everything by 10%. We get a net present value per share of $179, which is more than 2x where shares trade currently. This shows how undervalued shares have become if the company can continue delivering growth of at least half its historical rate.TSMC Q2 2022 GuidanceWe are encouraged by the strong guidance the company gave for the second quarter of 2022. The company expects revenue to be between $17.6 billion and $18.2 billion. They also expect gross profit margin to be between 56% and 58%, and operating profit margin to be between 45% and 47%.RisksThe main risk we see with a long-term investment in Taiwan Semiconductor is that of technology obsolescence if competition manages to outrun them in semiconductor node development. So far, the company has done a terrific job staying ahead of the curve, investing heavily in R&D to make sure competitors are not able to catch up with them. In fact, the company has been reinvesting ~8% of revenue into R&D. That said, competitors catching up is a real risk, and probably the most important one here.In terms of the balance sheet, we do not see any major liquidity risk, with the company having more cash and short-term investments than long-term debt, and the Altman Z-score being a very high 7.5.Data by YCharts","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":159,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}