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- 我是火车王我是火车王
  ·04-06
  然后你们天天买货。
  摩根大通CEO警告：伊朗战争恐推高通胀与利率
  摩根大通CEO戴蒙发布年度重磅警告：油价冲击恐成“派对臭鼬”，或引爆通胀反弹、推高利率并重创资产价格！同时，他直批私人信贷市场承销退化、风险暗涌，并犀利质疑私募机构错失牛市上市良机。金融风暴是否已在酝酿？
  摩根大通CEO警告：伊朗战争恐推高通胀与利率
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id=\"id_1581837206\">私人信贷市场被指风险累积</h2><p>在金融体系内部风险方面，Dimon对私人信贷市场表达了明确担忧。</p><p>他预测，一旦经济出现下行，多数高风险信贷产品所受的冲击将超出市场预期，原因在于众多贷款机构的承销标准已明显退化。</p><p>他同时对私人信贷基金向零售客户销售产品的趋势提出批评，认为这一领域目前缺乏足够的透明度与应有的监管标准。</p><p>&#34;并非所有提供信贷的机构都擅长此道，&#34;他写道，&#34;许多玩家是后来者，部分信贷提供方的表现可以预见将远逊于其他同行。&#34;</p><h2 id=\"id_3242127659\">私募股权上市步伐偏慢引质疑</h2><p>Dimon在信中还对私募股权行业的上市进度提出质疑。</p><p>他指出，在股市近月持续处于历史高位的背景下，旗下持有近1.3万家企业的私募股权机构未能更积极地借助良好市场环境推动被投公司上市，令人颇感意外。</p><p>&#34;如果我们真的迎来一段持续的熊市，很难想象届时会发生什么，&#34;他警告称。</p><h2 id=\"id_1139780413\">支持去监管，回避特朗普诉讼话题</h2><p>在政策立场上，Dimon表示支持特朗普政府推动的去监管化举措，并称摩根大通计划通过支持对美国军事与经济安全至关重要的产业，协助白宫实现更广泛的政策目标。</p><p>值得注意的是，今年的股东信对特朗普起诉摩根大通及Dimon本人一事只字未提——该诉讼源于2021年1月6日国会山骚乱后，摩根大通关闭了特朗普的银行账户。</p><p>此外，Dimon在信中就欧盟改革、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APEI\">美国公共教育</a>改善等议题提出了一系列建议，并对纽约等城市的高税收政策提出批评，警告称没有任何城市拥有&#34;成功的天赋权利&#34;。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n摩根大通CEO警告：伊朗战争恐推高通胀与利率\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-06 20:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>首席执行官Jamie Dimon在年度股东信中发出警示，伊朗战争引发的油价与大宗商品价格冲击，可能导致通胀持续走高，进而推动利率上升、压低资产价格。</p><p>据《华尔街日报》报道，Dimon在今年的股东信中将通胀反弹列为当前最不应被忽视的经济风险之一，并直指&#34;派对上的臭鼬——可能就在2026年——是通胀缓慢上升&#34;。他警告称，这一情形本身就足以引发利率上行与资产价格下跌。</p><p>Dimon还明确表态，伊朗政权长期支持恐怖主义、造成大量人员伤亡的威胁&#34;必须以适当方式加以应对&#34;。在他看来，乌克兰与伊朗战争的最终走向，其重要性甚至超过这些冲突本身所带来的金融与经济影响。</p><h2 id=\"id_1393264904\">油价冲击是核心风险</h2><p>Dimon在信中指出，未来数月油价与大宗商品价格面临进一步冲击的风险，这可能引发持续性通胀，并最终推动利率走高。他援引历史教训称，油价的快速攀升是1970年代至1980年代多次严重经济衰退的重要诱因，尽管他同时承认，美国当前对此类冲击的抵御能力较当年已有所增强。</p><p>这一警告背景下，金融市场对利率走向的高度敏感性使得Dimon的判断备受关注。他70岁，掌舵摩根大通已逾二十年，其年度股东信长期被市场视为观察美国金融与经济走势的重要窗口。</p><h2 id=\"id_1581837206\">私人信贷市场被指风险累积</h2><p>在金融体系内部风险方面，Dimon对私人信贷市场表达了明确担忧。</p><p>他预测，一旦经济出现下行，多数高风险信贷产品所受的冲击将超出市场预期，原因在于众多贷款机构的承销标准已明显退化。</p><p>他同时对私人信贷基金向零售客户销售产品的趋势提出批评，认为这一领域目前缺乏足够的透明度与应有的监管标准。</p><p>&#34;并非所有提供信贷的机构都擅长此道，&#34;他写道，&#34;许多玩家是后来者，部分信贷提供方的表现可以预见将远逊于其他同行。&#34;</p><h2 id=\"id_3242127659\">私募股权上市步伐偏慢引质疑</h2><p>Dimon在信中还对私募股权行业的上市进度提出质疑。</p><p>他指出，在股市近月持续处于历史高位的背景下，旗下持有近1.3万家企业的私募股权机构未能更积极地借助良好市场环境推动被投公司上市，令人颇感意外。</p><p>&#34;如果我们真的迎来一段持续的熊市，很难想象届时会发生什么，&#34;他警告称。</p><h2 id=\"id_1139780413\">支持去监管，回避特朗普诉讼话题</h2><p>在政策立场上，Dimon表示支持特朗普政府推动的去监管化举措，并称摩根大通计划通过支持对美国军事与经济安全至关重要的产业，协助白宫实现更广泛的政策目标。</p><p>值得注意的是，今年的股东信对特朗普起诉摩根大通及Dimon本人一事只字未提——该诉讼源于2021年1月6日国会山骚乱后，摩根大通关闭了特朗普的银行账户。</p><p>此外，Dimon在信中就欧盟改革、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APEI\">美国公共教育</a>改善等议题提出了一系列建议，并对纽约等城市的高税收政策提出批评，警告称没有任何城市拥有&#34;成功的天赋权利&#34;。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57a64b571c0986ed7c10fdaaacc7946f","relate_stocks":{"IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","LU1917777945.USD":"安联专题基金Cl AT Acc","LU1119994496.HKD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (HKD) ACC","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","LU2456880835.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AT\" (USD) ACC",".DJI":"道琼斯","LU1267930490.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"AS\" (SGD) INC A","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0265550359.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A2\" (USD) 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