Wedbush高呼“市场错了”：OpenAI恐慌是“假摔”！甲骨文大跌后迎来买入良机_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Wedbush高呼“市场错了”：OpenAI恐慌是“假摔”！甲骨文大跌后迎来买入良机

智通财经04-29

4月29日，随着OpenAI披露未能达成内部用户与营收目标的报道持续发酵，与之深度绑定的科技股遭遇猛烈抛售。然而，Wedbush Securities在最新研究报告中旗帜鲜明地指出，市场的恐慌情绪已严重偏离基本面——这不仅是一场“反应过度”，更成就了甲骨文(ORCL.US)等高相关AI基建龙头的“绝佳买入机会”。Wedbush的"错杀"逻辑：市场恐慌与基本面的断裂放缓假象：Wedbush分析师明确...

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·04-30
那叫“老乡别走”[捂脸] [捂脸]
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Oracle (ORCL.US) Gets a Buying Opportunity After Big Drop","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/faeca63e134090e3e235dcdc02374b19","symbols_score_info":{"ORCS":0.6,"ORCX":0.6,"ORCL":1.97,"ORCU":0.6},"content_text":"4月29日，随着OpenAI披露未能达成内部用户与营收目标的报道持续发酵，与之深度绑定的科技股遭遇猛烈抛售。然而，Wedbush Securities在最新研究报告中旗帜鲜明地指出，市场的恐慌情绪已严重偏离基本面——这不仅是一场“反应过度”，更成就了甲骨文(ORCL.US)等高相关AI基建龙头的“绝佳买入机会”。Wedbush的\"错杀\"逻辑：市场恐慌与基本面的断裂放缓假象：Wedbush分析师明确表示，\"强烈反对\"OpenAI增长放缓的论调。该机构观察到，无论在消费者端还是企业端，OpenAI均保持着\"非常高的需求\"。该机构认为，近期完成1220亿美元融资后，OpenAI已拥有至少三年的充裕算力采购预算，暗示其履约能力并无实质性危机。订单铁幕：Wedbush同时强调了甲骨文的压舱石——高达5530亿美元的剩余履约义务中，约3000亿美元来自与OpenAI签订的五年期云算力协议。这一合同为甲骨文提供了史无前例的收入可见性，使其在与同行对比时具备极强的防御属性。估值洼地：该机构不仅重申对甲骨文的\"跑赢大盘\"评级，更明确维持225美元的目标价——以当前股价计，意味着逾30%的上行空间。该股过去六个月已累计下跌38%，Wedbush认为当前估值已为投资者提供了显著的折扣安全边际。资金充裕：Wedbush分析师解释说，鉴于两家公司近期都进行了融资，尤其是甲骨文，它们的状况良好。甲骨文公司正计划通过债务和股权融资筹集500亿美元，而OpenAI近期从众多投资者处筹集了1220亿美元。值得注意的是，Wedbush对甲骨文AI战略的整体判断并非临时起意。上周该机构已首次将甲骨文纳入覆盖范围，给予\"跑赢大盘\"评级和225美元目标价，指出甲骨文的资本支出有合同保障而非投机性质——其资本支出与RPO之比约为9%，远远低于行业平均约45.6%的水平。一份报道引发的\"血案\"触发此轮抛售情绪的源头是周二的一则报道，披露OpenAI近期未能达成其设定的新用户与营收目标。其中，ChatGPT聊天机器人未能在2025年底前实现每周10亿活跃用户的内部目标，同时在编程工具和企业级市场，OpenAI正面临来自竞争对手Anthropic日益强烈的挤压，其Claude AI模型备受业界推崇。用户流失率仍是挑战，ChatGPT聊天机器人未能在2025年底前实现每周10亿活跃用户的内部目标。而谷歌的Gemini AI模型去年人气显著上升，用户数量实现大幅增长、进而蚕食了OpenAI的市场份额。值得一提的是，谷歌对OpenAI的追赶也体现在与谷歌相关联的一系列股票上。数据显示，近几个月以来，一篮子与OpenAI相关的股票明显跑输同业。自2024年底以来，该组股票累计上涨约75%，而类似的一组与谷歌相关的股票同期内的涨幅则超过300%。消息公布后，美股AI板块集体跳水。周二，甲骨文盘前一度暴跌7.7%至159.80美元，收盘跌超4%;CoreWeave(CRWV.US)盘前下挫7.4%至104美元。日本软银集团在东京市场收盘重挫近10%，创下自去年11月以来最大单日跌幅，美国OTC市场跌幅更达12.11%。英伟达(NVDA.US)收跌1.63%;博通(AVGO.US)与AMD(AMD.US)跌幅均超过3%。纳斯达克综合指数收跌0.90%，标普500指数跌0.49%，道琼斯指数微跌0.05%——与OpenAI高度绑定的公司构成了这轮下跌的核心压力区。尽管Wedbush立场鲜明地看多，市场恐慌却并非空穴来风。据知情人士透露，OpenAI首席财务官萨拉·弗里亚(Sarah Friar)已向公司高管层表达担忧：如果收入增长速度不够快，公司未来可能无法承担对甲骨文等公司的庞大算力采购义务。这一CFO级别的内部警示为市场注入了结构性的不确定性。与此同时，OpenAI与甲骨文在得克萨斯州阿比林的\"星际之门\"(Stargate)旗舰数据中心扩建计划已于今年3月因融资谈判僵局和需求变化而正式泡汤。该项目原本计划将数据中心规模从1.2GW推进至接近2GW，如今已被搁置，Meta正考虑接手相关扩容项目。这一事实提醒投资者，尽管合同RPO数字庞大，但从\"合同签署\"到\"需求落地\"之间并非没有断裂的空间。多空激辩围绕甲骨文\"3000亿美元豪赌\"的多空之争，已在华尔街形成鲜明对峙。看多方以Wedbush为代表，构画的逻辑基础清晰——巨额积压订单提供收入可见性、充裕融资保障项目交付、长线需求逻辑依然坚实。更深层的支撑是：甲骨文RPO的庞大底座，使公司在即便面临短期需求扰动时，仍保有远高于同业的防御纵深。然而，空方的逻辑同样锋利。部分市场分析人士将甲骨文当前的处境定性为\"对单一客户的单点信用风险暴露\"。甲骨文的RPO中有高达54%集中于OpenAI一家客户，当这\"最大信用支柱\"的高管层自身都开始质疑公司的履约能力时，积压合同从\"护城河\"转变为\"风险集中暴露点\"的可能性便不容忽视。此外，甲骨文过去四个季度的自由现金流为-247亿美元，长期债务半年间从813亿美元暴增至1308亿美元——这一押注的代价是极其沉重的资产负债表扩张压力。尽管如此，Wedbush分析师反驳道：“鉴于甲骨文公司此次 500 亿美元的融资计划主要通过债务融资来支持其数据中心建设，而数据中心建设又取决于OpenAI能否按时履行其采购承诺，我们对甲骨文完成此次融资计划的能力充满信心。虽然这些担忧值得关注，但我们认为甲骨文股价的回调是一个绝佳的买入机会，因为OpenAI预计将于今年年底上市，这将为该公司提供来自公开市场的全新融资渠道。我们认为近期围绕OpenAI的担忧有些过头，该公司在近期完成1220亿美元的融资后，拥有足够的资金来满足其未来至少三年的计算能力需求，这让我们相信甲骨文的积压订单将在短期内得到满足，而其上市之路也将为其长期承诺提供充足的流动性。”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":559009564512584,"gmtCreate":1777508639477,"gmtModify":1777508641864,"author":{"id":"3482550532367433","authorId":"3482550532367433","name":"龙腾虎乐","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1530cc5cd548815469551d0b8c1c8ee8","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/622fc56f7e67b5729addb4e78a195511","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3482550532367433","idStr":"3482550532367433"},"htmlText":"那叫“老乡别走”[捂脸]&nbsp; [捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"那叫“老乡别走”[捂脸]&nbsp; [捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"那叫“老乡别走”[捂脸] [捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/559009564512584","repostId":2631176295,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2631176295","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1777470978,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2631176295?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-29 21:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wedbush高呼“市场错了”：OpenAI恐慌是“假摔”！甲骨文大跌后迎来买入良机","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2631176295","media":"智通财经","summary":"然而，Wedbush Securities在最新研究报告中旗帜鲜明地指出，市场的恐慌情绪已严重偏离基本面——这不仅是一场“反应过度”，更成就了甲骨文等高相关AI基建龙头的“绝佳买入机会”。Wedbush的\"错杀\"逻辑：市场恐慌与基本面的断裂放缓假象：Wedbush分析师明确表示，\"强烈反对\"OpenAI增长放缓的论调。值得注意的是，Wedbush对甲骨文AI战略的整体判断并非临时起意。尽管Wedbush立场鲜明地看多，市场恐慌却并非空穴来风。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月29日，随着OpenAI披露未能达成内部用户与营收目标的报道持续发酵，与之深度绑定的科技股遭遇猛烈抛售。然而，Wedbush Securities在最新研究报告中旗帜鲜明地指出，市场的恐慌情绪已严重偏离基本面——这不仅是一场“反应过度”，更成就了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>(ORCL.US)等高相关AI基建龙头的“绝佳买入机会”。</p><h2 id=\"id_2626970504\">Wedbush的&#34;错杀&#34;逻辑：市场恐慌与基本面的断裂</h2><p>放缓假象：Wedbush分析师明确表示，&#34;强烈反对&#34;OpenAI增长放缓的论调。该机构观察到，无论在消费者端还是企业端，OpenAI均保持着&#34;非常高的需求&#34;。该机构认为，近期完成1220亿美元融资后，OpenAI已拥有至少三年的充裕算力采购预算，暗示其履约能力并无实质性危机。</p><p>订单铁幕：Wedbush同时强调了甲骨文的压舱石——高达5530亿美元的剩余履约义务中，约3000亿美元来自与OpenAI签订的五年期云算力协议。这一合同为甲骨文提供了史无前例的收入可见性，使其在与同行对比时具备极强的防御属性。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1b59b632e6a8b7bd86183c84f3c4881\" tg-width=\"726\" tg-height=\"400\"/></p><p>估值洼地：该机构不仅重申对甲骨文的&#34;跑赢大盘&#34;评级，更明确维持225美元的目标价——以当前股价计，意味着逾30%的上行空间。该股过去六个月已累计下跌38%，Wedbush认为当前估值已为投资者提供了显著的折扣安全边际。</p><p>资金充裕：Wedbush分析师解释说，鉴于两家公司近期都进行了融资，尤其是甲骨文，它们的状况良好。甲骨文公司正计划通过债务和股权融资筹集500亿美元，而OpenAI近期从众多投资者处筹集了1220亿美元。</p><p>值得注意的是，Wedbush对甲骨文AI战略的整体判断并非临时起意。上周该机构已首次将甲骨文纳入覆盖范围，给予&#34;跑赢大盘&#34;评级和225美元目标价，指出甲骨文的资本支出有合同保障而非投机性质——其资本支出与RPO之比约为9%，远远低于行业平均约45.6%的水平。</p><h2 id=\"id_1436109366\">一份报道引发的&#34;血案&#34;</h2><p>触发此轮抛售情绪的源头是周二的一则报道，披露OpenAI近期未能达成其设定的新用户与营收目标。其中，ChatGPT聊天机器人未能在2025年底前实现每周10亿活跃用户的内部目标，同时在编程工具和企业级市场，OpenAI正面临来自竞争对手Anthropic日益强烈的挤压，其Claude AI模型备受业界推崇。</p><p>用户流失率仍是挑战，ChatGPT聊天机器人未能在2025年底前实现每周10亿活跃用户的内部目标。而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>的Gemini AI模型去年人气显著上升，用户数量实现大幅增长、进而蚕食了OpenAI的市场份额。</p><p>值得一提的是，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>对OpenAI的追赶也体现在与谷歌相关联的一系列股票上。数据显示，近几个月以来，一篮子与OpenAI相关的股票明显跑输同业。自2024年底以来，该组股票累计上涨约75%，而类似的一组与谷歌相关的股票同期内的涨幅则超过300%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/073d78dea79839c71208fa970d00006e\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"374\"/></p><p>消息公布后，美股AI板块集体跳水。周二，甲骨文盘前一度暴跌7.7%至159.80美元，收盘跌超4%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWV\">CoreWeave</a>(CRWV.US)盘前下挫7.4%至104美元。日本<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFTBY\">软银集团</a>在东京市场收盘重挫近10%，创下自去年11月以来最大单日跌幅，美国OTC市场跌幅更达12.11%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>(NVDA.US)收跌1.63%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>(AVGO.US)与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>(AMD.US)跌幅均超过3%。纳斯达克综合指数收跌0.90%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数跌0.49%，道琼斯指数微跌0.05%——与OpenAI高度绑定的公司构成了这轮下跌的核心压力区。</p><p>尽管Wedbush立场鲜明地看多，市场恐慌却并非空穴来风。据知情人士透露，OpenAI首席财务官萨拉·弗里亚(Sarah Friar)已向公司高管层表达担忧：如果收入增长速度不够快，公司未来可能无法承担对甲骨文等公司的庞大算力采购义务。这一CFO级别的内部警示为市场注入了结构性的不确定性。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1815b595a284dc30c8136004a906d1a4\" tg-width=\"501\" tg-height=\"688\"/></p><p>与此同时，OpenAI与甲骨文在得克萨斯州阿比林的&#34;星际之门&#34;(Stargate)旗舰数据中心扩建计划已于今年3月因融资谈判僵局和需求变化而正式泡汤。该项目原本计划将数据中心规模从1.2GW推进至接近2GW，如今已被搁置，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>正考虑接手相关扩容项目。这一事实提醒投资者，尽管合同RPO数字庞大，但从&#34;合同签署&#34;到&#34;需求落地&#34;之间并非没有断裂的空间。</p><h2 id=\"id_1861710477\">多空激辩</h2><p>围绕甲骨文&#34;3000亿美元豪赌&#34;的多空之争，已在华尔街形成鲜明对峙。看多方以Wedbush为代表，构画的逻辑基础清晰——巨额积压订单提供收入可见性、充裕融资保障项目交付、长线需求逻辑依然坚实。更深层的支撑是：甲骨文RPO的庞大底座，使公司在即便面临短期需求扰动时，仍保有远高于同业的防御纵深。</p><p>然而，空方的逻辑同样锋利。部分市场分析人士将甲骨文当前的处境定性为&#34;对单一客户的单点信用风险暴露&#34;。甲骨文的RPO中有高达54%集中于OpenAI一家客户，当这&#34;最大信用支柱&#34;的高管层自身都开始质疑公司的履约能力时，积压合同从&#34;护城河&#34;转变为&#34;风险集中暴露点&#34;的可能性便不容忽视。此外，甲骨文过去四个季度的自由现金流为-247亿美元，长期债务半年间从813亿美元暴增至1308亿美元——这一押注的代价是极其沉重的资产负债表扩张压力。</p><p>尽管如此，Wedbush分析师反驳道：“鉴于甲骨文公司此次 500 亿美元的融资计划主要通过债务融资来支持其数据中心建设，而数据中心建设又取决于OpenAI能否按时履行其采购承诺，我们对甲骨文完成此次融资计划的能力充满信心。虽然这些担忧值得关注，但我们认为甲骨文股价的回调是一个绝佳的买入机会，因为OpenAI预计将于今年年底上市，这将为该公司提供来自公开市场的全新融资渠道。我们认为近期围绕OpenAI的担忧有些过头，该公司在近期完成1220亿美元的融资后，拥有足够的资金来满足其未来至少三年的计算能力需求，这让我们相信甲骨文的积压订单将在短期内得到满足，而其上市之路也将为其长期承诺提供充足的流动性。”</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wedbush高呼“市场错了”：OpenAI恐慌是“假摔”！甲骨文大跌后迎来买入良机</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWedbush高呼“市场错了”：OpenAI恐慌是“假摔”！甲骨文大跌后迎来买入良机\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-29 21:56 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1436589.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>4月29日，随着OpenAI披露未能达成内部用户与营收目标的报道持续发酵，与之深度绑定的科技股遭遇猛烈抛售。然而，Wedbush Securities在最新研究报告中旗帜鲜明地指出，市场的恐慌情绪已严重偏离基本面——这不仅是一场“反应过度”，更成就了甲骨文(ORCL.US)等高相关AI基建龙头的“绝佳买入机会”。Wedbush的\"错杀\"逻辑：市场恐慌与基本面的断裂放缓假象：Wedbush分析师明确...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1436589.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c35c8a27605936ee42c5dc8842ec36a","relate_stocks":{"LU1935043023.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME \"AA\" (USD) INC A","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","SG9999003800.SGD":"Nikko AM Global Dividend Equity Acc SGD-H","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1935042991.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","LU1935042488.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU1691799644.USD":"Amundi Funds Polen Capital Global Growth A2 (C) 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VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1436589.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2631176295","content_text":"4月29日，随着OpenAI披露未能达成内部用户与营收目标的报道持续发酵，与之深度绑定的科技股遭遇猛烈抛售。然而，Wedbush Securities在最新研究报告中旗帜鲜明地指出，市场的恐慌情绪已严重偏离基本面——这不仅是一场“反应过度”，更成就了甲骨文(ORCL.US)等高相关AI基建龙头的“绝佳买入机会”。Wedbush的\"错杀\"逻辑：市场恐慌与基本面的断裂放缓假象：Wedbush分析师明确表示，\"强烈反对\"OpenAI增长放缓的论调。该机构观察到，无论在消费者端还是企业端，OpenAI均保持着\"非常高的需求\"。该机构认为，近期完成1220亿美元融资后，OpenAI已拥有至少三年的充裕算力采购预算，暗示其履约能力并无实质性危机。订单铁幕：Wedbush同时强调了甲骨文的压舱石——高达5530亿美元的剩余履约义务中，约3000亿美元来自与OpenAI签订的五年期云算力协议。这一合同为甲骨文提供了史无前例的收入可见性，使其在与同行对比时具备极强的防御属性。估值洼地：该机构不仅重申对甲骨文的\"跑赢大盘\"评级，更明确维持225美元的目标价——以当前股价计，意味着逾30%的上行空间。该股过去六个月已累计下跌38%，Wedbush认为当前估值已为投资者提供了显著的折扣安全边际。资金充裕：Wedbush分析师解释说，鉴于两家公司近期都进行了融资，尤其是甲骨文，它们的状况良好。甲骨文公司正计划通过债务和股权融资筹集500亿美元，而OpenAI近期从众多投资者处筹集了1220亿美元。值得注意的是，Wedbush对甲骨文AI战略的整体判断并非临时起意。上周该机构已首次将甲骨文纳入覆盖范围，给予\"跑赢大盘\"评级和225美元目标价，指出甲骨文的资本支出有合同保障而非投机性质——其资本支出与RPO之比约为9%，远远低于行业平均约45.6%的水平。一份报道引发的\"血案\"触发此轮抛售情绪的源头是周二的一则报道，披露OpenAI近期未能达成其设定的新用户与营收目标。其中，ChatGPT聊天机器人未能在2025年底前实现每周10亿活跃用户的内部目标，同时在编程工具和企业级市场，OpenAI正面临来自竞争对手Anthropic日益强烈的挤压，其Claude AI模型备受业界推崇。用户流失率仍是挑战，ChatGPT聊天机器人未能在2025年底前实现每周10亿活跃用户的内部目标。而谷歌的Gemini AI模型去年人气显著上升，用户数量实现大幅增长、进而蚕食了OpenAI的市场份额。值得一提的是，谷歌对OpenAI的追赶也体现在与谷歌相关联的一系列股票上。数据显示，近几个月以来，一篮子与OpenAI相关的股票明显跑输同业。自2024年底以来，该组股票累计上涨约75%，而类似的一组与谷歌相关的股票同期内的涨幅则超过300%。消息公布后，美股AI板块集体跳水。周二，甲骨文盘前一度暴跌7.7%至159.80美元，收盘跌超4%;CoreWeave(CRWV.US)盘前下挫7.4%至104美元。日本软银集团在东京市场收盘重挫近10%，创下自去年11月以来最大单日跌幅，美国OTC市场跌幅更达12.11%。英伟达(NVDA.US)收跌1.63%;博通(AVGO.US)与AMD(AMD.US)跌幅均超过3%。纳斯达克综合指数收跌0.90%，标普500指数跌0.49%，道琼斯指数微跌0.05%——与OpenAI高度绑定的公司构成了这轮下跌的核心压力区。尽管Wedbush立场鲜明地看多，市场恐慌却并非空穴来风。据知情人士透露，OpenAI首席财务官萨拉·弗里亚(Sarah Friar)已向公司高管层表达担忧：如果收入增长速度不够快，公司未来可能无法承担对甲骨文等公司的庞大算力采购义务。这一CFO级别的内部警示为市场注入了结构性的不确定性。与此同时，OpenAI与甲骨文在得克萨斯州阿比林的\"星际之门\"(Stargate)旗舰数据中心扩建计划已于今年3月因融资谈判僵局和需求变化而正式泡汤。该项目原本计划将数据中心规模从1.2GW推进至接近2GW，如今已被搁置，Meta正考虑接手相关扩容项目。这一事实提醒投资者，尽管合同RPO数字庞大，但从\"合同签署\"到\"需求落地\"之间并非没有断裂的空间。多空激辩围绕甲骨文\"3000亿美元豪赌\"的多空之争，已在华尔街形成鲜明对峙。看多方以Wedbush为代表，构画的逻辑基础清晰——巨额积压订单提供收入可见性、充裕融资保障项目交付、长线需求逻辑依然坚实。更深层的支撑是：甲骨文RPO的庞大底座，使公司在即便面临短期需求扰动时，仍保有远高于同业的防御纵深。然而，空方的逻辑同样锋利。部分市场分析人士将甲骨文当前的处境定性为\"对单一客户的单点信用风险暴露\"。甲骨文的RPO中有高达54%集中于OpenAI一家客户，当这\"最大信用支柱\"的高管层自身都开始质疑公司的履约能力时，积压合同从\"护城河\"转变为\"风险集中暴露点\"的可能性便不容忽视。此外，甲骨文过去四个季度的自由现金流为-247亿美元，长期债务半年间从813亿美元暴增至1308亿美元——这一押注的代价是极其沉重的资产负债表扩张压力。尽管如此，Wedbush分析师反驳道：“鉴于甲骨文公司此次 500 亿美元的融资计划主要通过债务融资来支持其数据中心建设，而数据中心建设又取决于OpenAI能否按时履行其采购承诺，我们对甲骨文完成此次融资计划的能力充满信心。虽然这些担忧值得关注，但我们认为甲骨文股价的回调是一个绝佳的买入机会，因为OpenAI预计将于今年年底上市，这将为该公司提供来自公开市场的全新融资渠道。我们认为近期围绕OpenAI的担忧有些过头，该公司在近期完成1220亿美元的融资后，拥有足够的资金来满足其未来至少三年的计算能力需求，这让我们相信甲骨文的积压订单将在短期内得到满足，而其上市之路也将为其长期承诺提供充足的流动性。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ORCS":0.6,"ORCX":0.6,"ORCL":1.97,"ORCU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}