私募魔女：10年一遇的绝对低估，A股已是干柴烈火_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

私募魔女：10年一遇的绝对低估，A股已是干柴烈火

格隆汇2022-05-10

被称为私募圈“魔女”的半夏投资创始人李蓓发文称“做多A股，买入中国制造”。过去一个多月，A股尤其以中证500为代表的制造业细分龙头股票，经历了融资爆仓，私募止损的被动卖盘集中宣泄，进入10年一遇的绝对低估区间。龙战于野已经完成，吃饭行情就在现在。长期也不用太悲观。熊市的四阶段每一轮熊市，都会经历四个阶段：第一阶段：少数投资者对经济和企业盈利的前景能否维持产生怀疑。过高的估值或信贷的收紧驱动产业资本...

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伊宅购集团公司四川成都运
·2022-05-10
666
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叶里予
·2022-05-10
别扯淡，你说见底了就晒持仓。反正我已经跑啦！
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2
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山水畅游
·2022-05-10
不够宏观,只从历史数据上分析，现在低迷的因素是大科技监管整顿，动态清零，战争，中美关系紧张这四大因素导致的，只要这些威胁有长期存在的可能就很难说
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3
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收起
- Ydy3000:
  好
  2022-05-10
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巴韭特王多鱼分特
·2022-05-10
我不信，二季度
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猛逃
·2022-05-10
真逗币，到底了会告诉韭菜们[疑问]
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1
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合一思行
·2022-05-10
哈哈哈
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华尔街恶狼
·2022-05-10
这还做多，看看pmi跌成啥样，汇率跌成啥样，疫情搞得民不聊生，外围环境巨恶劣，先等加息加完再说
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55f55b2
·2022-05-10
笑死了！干柴烈火！儿童底！还有啥词
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2
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pine大大
·2022-05-10
再跌一半也是很正常的哈
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Trump Dad
·2022-05-10
是卖不出去的烂货吗
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1
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Trump Dad
·2022-05-10
谢谢
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Trump Dad
·2022-05-10
谢谢
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Trump Dad
·2022-05-10
把A股形容成了卖都卖不出去的烂货😂😂😂😂😂
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厉害我哥
·2022-05-10
还早着呢
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DeepValueMaking
·2022-05-10
我是魔王
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大眼嘟嘟
·2022-05-10
那你还不赶紧卖房梭哈
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3
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沐辰888
·2022-05-10
你比比尔盖茨牛逼
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X_8046
·2022-05-10
下跌才刚刚开始
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fire","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8af5d8fc0a00f73fc54bb1d20905e2aa","symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9},"content_text":"被称为私募圈“魔女”的半夏投资创始人李蓓发文称“做多A股，买入中国制造”。过去一个多月，A股尤其以中证500为代表的制造业细分龙头股票，经历了融资爆仓，私募止损的被动卖盘集中宣泄，进入10年一遇的绝对低估区间。龙战于野已经完成，吃饭行情就在现在。长期也不用太悲观。熊市的四阶段每一轮熊市，都会经历四个阶段：第一阶段：少数投资者对经济和企业盈利的前景能否维持产生怀疑。过高的估值或信贷的收紧驱动产业资本的减持。边际减仓驱动的下跌。第二阶段：经济和流动性的趋势性恶化，伴随一些长期的制度性的担心，使得投资人系统性普遍性的主动避险减仓。第三阶段：带止损线的资金，带杠杆的资金，资产管理的资金，因为止损、爆仓、赎回，被迫抛售。第四阶段：大部分投资人信心依然脆弱，盈利依然下行。但市场不再趋势下跌，转为震荡企稳。当前的A股，已经完成了第三阶段，进入第四阶段。主动减仓过程已经结束公募基金已经不再主动择时。目前专业机构中，择时的主要是私募基金和保险。私募基金根据华润信托的统计，大样本私募基金的仓位，3月末已经下降到58.9%，而4月显然是大幅减仓的一个月，大概率私募基金仓位已经下降到50%左右，也就是历史最低水平附近。保险公司保险公司的权益类持仓占比，也位于历史低位。被动砍仓过程也已经结束融资盘18年的熊市，融资余额，从1万亿出头下降到7000多亿，合计下降3000多亿。本轮，融资余额从17000多亿，下降到14000多亿，也已经下降3000多亿，下降幅度已经与18年相当。如果从抛售强度来看，周度的抛售已经大于700亿。大于18年最高峰，为过去5年最高水平。从日度数据来看，融资抛售开始放缓，被动卖压减弱。中小型私募基金的情况跟融资盘类似，在过去一个月，出现了较多的止损卖出。另一个存在被动止损机制的市场参与者，是雪球的对冲盘。雪球存量估计1000亿左右，如果假定雪球在市价轴上均匀发行，敲入价格70-80间分布，则超过一半的雪球已经敲入，对冲盘的卖出已经完成。对主要市场参与者的调研结果，与以上推论基本匹配。新的变化是，更低的价格意味着新发雪球更加安全，从而吸引了新的雪球投资者。无论私募，散户，大户，雪球投资人，都出现了大量的爆仓，止损，被动抛售，可谓市况惨烈。这种抛售，成就了历史最低估值，超出了最差的经济预期，超出了最悲观的情绪，它就是简单的不得不卖。这就是龙战于野，其血玄黄。估值到哪里了现在A股总体的风险溢价，是历史最高水平。也就是说，相对于债券，A股总体估值，位于历史最低水平。当然，A股内部有一些分化：中证500指数的，无论以任何的维度（市盈率，市净率，市销率，分红收益率）来衡量，都已经是过去20年历史最低估值。沪深300和上证50指数的估值位于过去10年的中位水平，还不算低。总体来看，机构仓位极低，爆仓止损引发的被动杀跌基本完成，市场的下跌动能几乎被耗尽。历史最低的估值，又使得市场的赔率进入极佳状态。市场会转入易涨难跌的格局，只要略有一些正面因素，就容易出现大级别的反弹。最近的变化：1，流动性显著向好可能是因为担心直接降息MLF利率信号作用太强，对汇率产生较大压力。央行没有直接降MLF，使得市场一度非常失望。但后来，央行暗暗做了很多事，比如持续投放流动性，把银行间拆解回购利率压低了一个台阶，比如更大力度的逼着银行放贷款。于是，在国债利率波澜不惊的掩盖之下，票据，存单，信用债，贷款利率，全都下了个台阶。票据利率更是几乎历史最低水平，年化不到2%。不是降息，胜似降息。最近的变化：2，人民币快速贬值改善出口企业盈利预期逻辑非常简单，不用多说。最近的变化：3，产业资本更加积极产业资本净减持，已经降到0。过去5年最低水平附近。产业资本的表现越来越积极，一方面体现了对上市公司估值水平的认可，对企业长期竞争力的认可，一方面也也是流动性宽松，产业资本不缺钱的表现。直接面对疫情干扰的，是产业资本；直接面对产业政策压力的，也是产业资本；需要签订单，借贷款，发工资，排物流，催尾款，交税费的，都是产业资本。人家都不慌了，专业投资人没有理由比人家更慌。被动抛售已经完成，机构仓位已经降到历史最低附近，一大波股票的估值也来到了历史最低附近，A股可谓干柴烈火，一触即发。而央行开始放水，产业资本不再减持。温度正在爬升，离着火点已经不远。所以，即便你对长期依然悲观，只是需要一波行情解决今年的吃饭的问题，那么，这里就是吃饭行情的起点。吃饭行情吃什么？选制造业龙头，选出口链条；回避外资重仓，回避金融地产可选消费。选中证500，中证1000；回避上证50，沪深300。从基本面的角度：制造业龙头和出口链是先周期，金融和可选消费是后周期。随着经济下滑进入后半段，原材料价格开始下跌，人民币汇率持续贬值，利率持续下行，对制造业尤其出口链条都是有利的。而贷款利率下行，坏账上升，对金融的影响逐渐显现出来。商务活动的下滑，财富效应和收入预期的下降，对可选消费的影响，也会逐渐显现出来。至于地产，预期走得已经太靠前，而现实年内不会改善。更大的周期来看，地产应该是大周期顶部，再也回不到从前。从投资人结构和估值的角度：过去一个月的集中杀跌，主要是散户，大户，中小型私募的被迫砍仓，重灾区是中证1000和中证500，所以，这些类别的股票，估值才杀到了历史最低。而外资过去一个月相当淡定，基本没有卖。从更长的周期看，过去几年积累的1.6万亿持仓，基本处于最高点，没有动。外资重仓的品种，以沪深300为代表，估值水平在历史上也就是中等水平。算不上便宜。而美国利率的上升并未结束，6月之后美联储还将开启缩表。随着美国利率的进一步上行，美元流动性的进一步收紧，当前外资重仓的这些A股，对于外资而言性价比越来越低。考虑到可能的一些国际关系的风险。逐渐减持可能是更好的选择。碰巧的是：外资重仓的品种，集中在金融和可选消费，集中在沪深300成分股。而中证500，大部分是制造业细分行业龙头。中短期的吃饭行情，应该是大概率的。如果你只是做吃饭行情，不用看后面的部分。但我还是希望讨论一下，更长期的前景。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":612307999,"gmtCreate":1652162743811,"gmtModify":1652162743811,"author":{"id":"3552527833755589","authorId":"3552527833755589","name":"伊宅购集团公司四川成都运","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612307999","repostId":1134624075,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":612300225,"gmtCreate":1652159617767,"gmtModify":1652162352528,"author":{"id":"3475671802823955","authorId":"3475671802823955","name":"叶里予","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f857e2bc71f6f5001e1d12637311bf2","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"别扯淡，你说见底了就晒持仓。反正我已经跑啦！","listText":"别扯淡，你说见底了就晒持仓。反正我已经跑啦！","text":"别扯淡，你说见底了就晒持仓。反正我已经跑啦！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612300225","repostId":1134624075,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":612975636,"gmtCreate":1652158411125,"gmtModify":1652159152436,"author":{"id":"3493545859869751","authorId":"3493545859869751","name":"山水畅游","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abb1077ff79e3cab1d625b09a15ad7b7","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"不够宏观,只从历史数据上分析，现在低迷的因素是大科技监管整顿，动态清零，战争，中美关系紧张这四大因素导致的，只要这些威胁有长期存在的可能就很难说","listText":"不够宏观,只从历史数据上分析，现在低迷的因素是大科技监管整顿，动态清零，战争，中美关系紧张这四大因素导致的，只要这些威胁有长期存在的可能就很难说","text":"不够宏观,只从历史数据上分析，现在低迷的因素是大科技监管整顿，动态清零，战争，中美关系紧张这四大因素导致的，只要这些威胁有长期存在的可能就很难说","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612975636","repostId":1134624075,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7404401,"gmtCreate":1652160145558,"gmtModify":1652160146230,"authorId":3555749694709375,"author":{"id":3555749694709375,"aut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