“做空巨鳄”索罗斯罕见现身，他又嗅到了什么机会？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

“做空巨鳄”索罗斯罕见现身，他又嗅到了什么机会？

金十数据2020-05-14

目前毋庸置疑的观点是，后疫情时代到来，经济全球化已经一去不复返。目前毋庸置疑的观点是，后疫情时代到来，经济全球化已经一去不复返。美国的沉浮、欧盟的生死存亡成为这个时代人们心之所系的焦点。近日，金融大鳄乔治·索罗斯接受了记者兼作家格雷戈尔·彼得·施密茨（Gregor Peter Schmidtz）的采访，采访的内容已由报业辛迪加（Project Syndicate）出版，题为《一生仅见的危机》（...

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YT丶何以解忧
·2020-05-15
高阶智商。
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死活一博
·2020-05-15
股神被当韭菜割了，啥时候轮到这死空头佬！
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我不是股神1
·2020-05-15
他己瞄准欧洲市场
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都给儿媳妇儿
·2020-05-15
阅
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辛酸的成长
·2020-05-15
索罗斯活招牌
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Jetfly
·2020-05-15
做空欧元？
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牛有德有牛
·2020-05-15
确定这是索罗斯说的话？怎么感觉这口吻最近在新闻中出现得太多了?
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2
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饿虎
·2020-05-15
不知道做空的是什么？
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1
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Jackson和您畅谈I
·2020-05-15
最近做空大佬个个都摩拳擦掌啊！
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2
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BIGGUY
·2020-05-15
中丐股的臭味被聞到了，韭菜們拭目以待
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tetehao红茶
·2020-05-14
做空？
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长灯下的太阳
·2020-05-14
老头又打算重出江湖？[傲娇]
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1
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颜承悦
·2020-05-14
他不敢做空美国或欧洲，也不敢得罪兲朝。只能去搞一下小鱼小虾。
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毛虫大战
·2020-05-14
敢做空欧洲嘛
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1
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猛逃
·2020-05-14
搞个索罗斯来当令箭[开心] [开心] [开心]
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What opportunities did he smell?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8b18d1ccbdcd2df0742c1ad68aa870","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"目前毋庸置疑的观点是，后疫情时代到来，经济全球化已经一去不复返。\n\n目前毋庸置疑的观点是，后疫情时代到来，经济全球化已经一去不复返。美国的沉浮、欧盟的生死存亡成为这个时代人们心之所系的焦点。近日，金融大鳄乔治·索罗斯接受了记者兼作家格雷戈尔·彼得·施密茨（Gregor Peter Schmidtz）的采访，采访的内容已由报业辛迪加（Project Syndicate）出版，题为《一生仅见的危机》（The Crisis of a Lifetime）。\n索罗斯认为，这场史无前例的疫情，确实危及到人类文明的生存，以下是他与施密茨的部分对话内容。\n施密茨：如果政府部门早期做好防范工作，疫情是否可以被遏制？\n\n 索罗斯：从黑死病以来，我们就已经历过流行性感染病。在19世纪，传染病甚至相当常见，一战结束时我们经历了西班牙流感，前前后后有三次传染潮，其中第二次是最致命的，数百万人丧失生命。我们还有其他的恶性传染病爆发，比如十年前的猪流感。令人匪夷所思的是，各个国家面对类似疫情是如此不堪一击。\n\n施密茨：对疫情的抗击充满不确定性是当下最严重的问题吗？未来几个月或者几年内应该如何应对？\n\n 索罗斯：这个问题当然很严重。我们进展得很快，现在我们对病毒的了解已经比刚爆发时好很多，但是我们面对的是一个快速变化的目标，因为病毒本身会变异。研制疫苗需要很长时间。甚至在我们开发出一种病毒之后，我们还需要不停改进，因为病毒很可能随时变异。这就是为什么说每年都要注射流感疫苗。\n\n施密茨：这场危机会改变资本主义吗？早在疫情引发的经济衰退之前，全球化和自由贸易的消极面就已经开始引发人们的讨论。\n\n 索罗斯：疫情爆发之前的世界肯定回不去了。这是唯一可以确定的事情。我想没人知道资本主义会走向何方。\n\n施密茨：这场危机能让人民和国家更紧密地团结在一起吗？\n\n 索罗斯：长远来看是的。目前，人们被恐惧所支配，恐惧常常令人们受伤。个人、机构、国家都是如此。\n\n施密茨：但是，现任美国总统并不能真正代表一个开放、自由的社会价值观。\n\n 索罗斯：嗯，这个问题我希望不会持续太久。特朗普非常想成为一个独裁者，但不能实现，因为违背美国宪法。宪法会阻止这一局面发生。但这并不意味着他不会试探这么做。我相信特朗普会毁掉自己。他的疯狂超出了我的想象。\n\n施密茨：在这场权力斗争中，欧盟扮演了什么样的角色？\n\n 索罗斯：我特别关注欧盟的存亡，它已经开始变成一个不完整的组织。欧盟现在比美国还要脆弱，因为它是法治基础上建立的联盟，公义决策之轮前进缓慢，但是冠状病毒一类的威胁倒是相当有行动力。这也是欧盟面对的一大挑战。\n\n施密茨：德国联邦宪法法院上周对欧洲央行做出的最新裁决引发热议，您怎么看？\n\n 索罗斯：我认为这份裁决值得认真研究。这项裁决可能摧毁欧盟的法制基础。因为它是由德国最具权威性的德国联邦宪法法院做出的裁决。在宣判前，它与欧洲法院进行了磋商，然后决定对其提出质疑。现在这两家法院出现了分歧，那么谁更有话语权？\n\n施密茨：理论上，欧洲条约赋予欧洲法院这一领域的主导地位。这一点毋庸置疑。\n\n 索罗斯：是的。德国加入欧盟时，承诺遵守欧洲法律。但这一裁决中新的问题浮出水面：如果德国联邦法院可以质疑欧洲法院的裁决，其他国家是否也可以效仿这一做法？匈牙利和波兰能不能自主决定他们是遵循欧洲法律还是曾被欧盟质疑的自己国家的法律？这个问题触及了欧洲法制基础的核心。波兰已经立即做出反应，称其政府控制的法院相对于欧洲法律具有绝对优先地位。在匈牙利，Viktor Orbán已经利用疫情和被挟持的议会任命自己为独裁者。议会一直在开会，试图正式通过他的政令。这显然违反了欧洲法律。如果德国法院这次判决令欧盟无法阻止这类事件出现，那么，我们将看到欧盟的终结。\n\n施密茨：在这一裁决之后，欧洲央行是否需要改变其政策？\n\n 索罗斯：不一定。这一裁决要求欧洲央行三个月内为其当前的货币政策辩护。这会造成欧洲央行内耗严重。因为欧洲央行是唯一一个可以为抗击疫情提供财政支持的机构。欧洲央行真正应该做的是集中力量帮助欧洲建立一个经济复苏基金。\n\n施密茨：所需资金如何筹集，您有没有什么好的建议？\n\n 索罗斯：我曾建议欧盟发行永久债券，尽管我认为他们应该被称为“统一公债（Consols）”，因为自1751年以来它就被英国冠以此名。永久债券已经和曾经被欧洲理事会否决的“冠状病毒债券”混淆了，他们认为“冠状病毒债券”将不断累积的债务共同化了，而成员国们并不愿意接受债务互助。这一点也破坏了对于永久债券相关的讨论。我相信事情的进展再次证实了我刚刚提到的Consols的例子。德国法院表示，欧洲央行的行动是合法的，因为欧洲央行坚持债券购买量应与各成员国在欧央行的持股比例相关这一原则。但这也表明，任何不成比例的购买行为都可能遭到质疑，并被法院视为越权。我刚刚提到的那个债券可以避开这个问题，因为它由整个欧盟发行，自动按照一个固定比例发行。各成员国只需支付相当低的利息，比如0.5%，以至于成员国可以很容易地全体购买或自愿联合认购债券。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩说，欧洲需要大约1万亿欧元（约合1.1万亿美元）来抗击疫情。如果欧盟成员国授权，Consols可以提供这些金额。不幸的是，德国和以荷兰为首的“汉莎联盟”国家坚决反对。他们应该审慎考虑。欧盟目前正在考虑将其预算翻一番，但这也只能提供1000亿欧元左右的资金，收益率只相当于永久债券所能提供的十分之一。那些希望将欧盟预算贡献保持在最低水平的人应该支持Consols。他们将不得不批准某些税收，如金融交易税，这将为欧盟产生资金来源，确保其AAA评级，但税收其实不必真正意义上征收，可以由Consols取代。这样的话，德国、荷兰和欧洲其他国家的情况都会好得多。年度开支只需50亿欧元，而且这个数字还会持续下降，却能给欧洲大陆带来它迫切需要的1万亿欧元，这样的成本效益比相当高。\n\n施密茨：当欧盟放宽对国家援助的规定时，德国提交的申请占到了一半多，有人认为这有损单一市场原则，给了德国一些不公平的竞争优势。您怎么看？\n\n 索罗斯：我同意。这尤其对意大利不利。意大利现在已经是欧洲的病夫，且疫情最为严重。立法党派领袖萨尔维尼（Matteo Salvini）正在鼓动意大利退出欧元区和欧盟。幸运的是，自从他离开政府后，他的个人声望有所下降，但他的拥护者越来越多。这是欧盟面临的另一个威胁。如果没有意大利这个曾经最亲欧洲的国家，欧洲还能剩下什么？意大利人对欧洲的信任甚至超过了对本国政府的信任。但在2015年的难民危机中，他们受到了虐待，于是转向加入了萨尔维尼的右翼和民粹主义五星运动党。\n\n施密茨：您的论调听起来很悲观。\n\n 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