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01-07

够苦了，不能再苦了[流泪] [流泪]

2026，再苦一苦运营商吧

2025-12-18

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@卖方笔记:12/17港股热门期权分析：科技股遭做空 vs 巨头回购护盘

2025-06-19

三花崛起吧

2025-05-23

$JD 20250523 35.0 PUT$ 一次失败的卖put

2025-05-23

$霸王茶姬(CHA)$ 打新首日没出的后果就是再也出不了了

2025-04-17

这么强势的标的，当天就一定会翻倍的 [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/519467300892688","repostId":"2601480535","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2601480535","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1767775962,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2601480535?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-07 16:52","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"2026，再苦一苦运营商吧","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2601480535","media":"科技杂谈","summary":"大幅落后于GDP增速，运营商面子、里子都没了！而往深一步的，是四大运营商内卷式的同质竞争导致的行业价值流失。2026年，可能还是要再苦一苦运营商！","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260107173915374v206q5z7lagr3zw\"/><p><strong>| 科</strong><strong>|</strong>技 | 杂<strong>|</strong>谈 |</p><p>中国通信行业第一自媒体</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260107173915965v206n1taky455p9\"/><p>本文作者：白犀牛</p><p>本文来源：白犀牛通信</p><p>国内四大运营商2025年过得挺苦的，光看一个宏观指标就能感受到其中的苦楚：</p><p>2025年中国GDP增长率预计在‌5%‌左右，而国内电信业务收入增速大概在0.9%。</p><p>这0.9%可能还是乐观的，细分到四大运营商头上，可能更加惨淡，</p><p>比如，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHL\">中国移动</a>前三季度营收增速只有0.4%。</p><p>大幅落后于GDP增速，运营商面子、里子都没了！</p><p>原因是什么呢？</p><p>表面原因是传统通信业务增长陷入泥淖，而新兴数字发展发展不及预期，形成了一个青黄不接的发展断档期。</p><p>而往深一步的，是四大运营商内卷式的同质竞争导致的行业价值流失。</p><p>而再往深一步，我认为是前几年为促进移动互联网和“大众创业万众创新”发展而推进的提速降费运动，掏走了相当一部分行业发展蓄力。</p><p>所以我们看到，电信业务总量每年按10%-15%的增速在增长，但收入却停滞了，甚至负增长。</p><p>那2026年会好吗？</p><p>判断的依据很简单，行业发展的基本面有没有大的变化？</p><p>流量经营会不会触底反弹？家庭业务会不会爆发？政企业务业务会不会实现量变到质变？新业务会不会跑出黑马？</p><p>如果上述问题的答案都为“否”，运营商的2026依然不乐观。</p><p>当然，这里面还有几个变量：</p><p>比如，三大运营商当前都在大搞对外投资，投资的收益会在一定范围内充盈运营商的现金流；</p><p>比如，新的业务板块可能会带来新的上规模的收入支流，比如，卫星通信、低空互联网、智算网络；</p><p>比如，2026年中央企业一个重要趋势就是“大力推进战略性、专业化重组整合和高质量并购”，行业格局会不会有大的变动；</p><p>还有一点，从当前趋势看，2026年商业<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000901\">航天</a>将取得关键突破，卫星互联网可能进入商用，而这与以地面互联网为主的三大运营商形成竞争关系，为了支持卫星互联网的起步、发展，在政策层面上可能会推动运营商进行策略性退让，给卫星互联网更大的成长空间。</p><p>2026年，可能还是要再苦一苦运营商！</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2026，再苦一苦运营商吧</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2026，再苦一苦运营商吧\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-07 16:52 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107174706a4a7362f&s=b><strong>科技杂谈</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>| 科|技 | 杂|谈 |中国通信行业第一自媒体本文作者：白犀牛本文来源：白犀牛通信国内四大运营商2025年过得挺苦的，光看一个宏观指标就能感受到其中的苦楚：2025年中国GDP增长率预计在‌5%‌左右，而国内电信业务收入增速大概在0.9%。这0.9%可能还是乐观的，细分到四大运营商头上，可能更加惨淡，比如，中国移动前三季度营收增速只有0.4%。大幅落后于GDP增速，运营商面子、里子都没了！原因是...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107174706a4a7362f&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"00728":"中国电信","BK1536":"电信股","BK1589":"北水核心资产","00762":"中国联通","BK1610":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK1506":"5G概念","00941":"中国移动","LU0039217434.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" INC","BK1133":"综合电信业务"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107174706a4a7362f&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2601480535","content_text":"| 科|技 | 杂|谈 |中国通信行业第一自媒体本文作者：白犀牛本文来源：白犀牛通信国内四大运营商2025年过得挺苦的，光看一个宏观指标就能感受到其中的苦楚：2025年中国GDP增长率预计在‌5%‌左右，而国内电信业务收入增速大概在0.9%。这0.9%可能还是乐观的，细分到四大运营商头上，可能更加惨淡，比如，中国移动前三季度营收增速只有0.4%。大幅落后于GDP增速，运营商面子、里子都没了！原因是什么呢？表面原因是传统通信业务增长陷入泥淖，而新兴数字发展发展不及预期，形成了一个青黄不接的发展断档期。而往深一步的，是四大运营商内卷式的同质竞争导致的行业价值流失。而再往深一步，我认为是前几年为促进移动互联网和“大众创业万众创新”发展而推进的提速降费运动，掏走了相当一部分行业发展蓄力。所以我们看到，电信业务总量每年按10%-15%的增速在增长，但收入却停滞了，甚至负增长。那2026年会好吗？判断的依据很简单，行业发展的基本面有没有大的变化？流量经营会不会触底反弹？家庭业务会不会爆发？政企业务业务会不会实现量变到质变？新业务会不会跑出黑马？如果上述问题的答案都为“否”，运营商的2026依然不乐观。当然，这里面还有几个变量：比如，三大运营商当前都在大搞对外投资，投资的收益会在一定范围内充盈运营商的现金流；比如，新的业务板块可能会带来新的上规模的收入支流，比如，卫星通信、低空互联网、智算网络；比如，2026年中央企业一个重要趋势就是“大力推进战略性、专业化重组整合和高质量并购”，行业格局会不会有大的变动；还有一点，从当前趋势看，2026年商业航天将取得关键突破，卫星互联网可能进入商用，而这与以地面互联网为主的三大运营商形成竞争关系，为了支持卫星互联网的起步、发展，在政策层面上可能会推动运营商进行策略性退让，给卫星互联网更大的成长空间。2026年，可能还是要再苦一苦运营商！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00728":0.9,"00941":0.9,"00762":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":244,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":511945478566920,"gmtCreate":1766013729370,"gmtModify":1766013731899,"author":{"id":"4207577606257330","authorId":"4207577606257330","name":"Milylee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4207577606257330","idStr":"4207577606257330"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/511945478566920","repostId":"511785723760760","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":511785723760760,"gmtCreate":1765960801682,"gmtModify":1765960821946,"author":{"id":"3527667646438385","authorId":"3527667646438385","name":"卖方笔记","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1e0deba0895fb30eee2a3aaec61cd42","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667646438385","idStr":"3527667646438385"},"themes":[],"title":"12/17港股热门期权分析：科技股遭做空 vs 巨头回购护盘","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-W(09988)$</a>重要新闻：科技股整体承压，主要受美国AI板块回调及流动性因素影响，中芯国际、腾讯等科技股同步下跌。数据显示该股沽空活跃，半日沽空金额达176.859亿元，沽空比率16.505%。分析师评级仍以\"强力推荐\"为主（91.18%），平均目标价185.84港元。期权分析：当前隐含波动率（IV）较高但期权价格相对便宜，市场情绪偏向看空。预期股价将出现明显波动。本周（12/19）：预计在 142-150港元 之间震荡。下周（12/24）：波动范围可能扩大至 140-155港元。核心支撑位：142-145港元。此区间是看跌期权（PUT）持仓最密集的地带，构成强力支撑带。核心阻力位：150港元。这是重要的心理关口，也是看涨期权（CALL）持仓的集中阻力位。期权策略参考：卖出看涨期权价差策略：卖出<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA 20251219 147.5 CALL\">$BABA 20251219 147.5 CALL$&nbsp;</a> 买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA 20251219 150.0 CALL\">$BABA 20251219 150.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a> 理由：股价短期承压但下有支撑，利用高IV卖出看涨期权，最大盈利区间现价至147.5港元。止损建议：股价突破150港元时平仓。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a>重要新闻：大和证券12月16日重申腾讯控股\"买入\"评级，目标价750港元（对应2026年预测市盈率20.6倍）。大和认为主要下行风险是游戏业务表现不及预期。期权分析：当前隐含波动率（I","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-W(09988)$</a>重要新闻：科技股整体承压，主要受美国AI板块回调及流动性因素影响，中芯国际、腾讯等科技股同步下跌。数据显示该股沽空活跃，半日沽空金额达176.859亿元，沽空比率16.505%。分析师评级仍以\"强力推荐\"为主（91.18%），平均目标价185.84港元。期权分析：当前隐含波动率（IV）较高但期权价格相对便宜，市场情绪偏向看空。预期股价将出现明显波动。本周（12/19）：预计在 142-150港元 之间震荡。下周（12/24）：波动范围可能扩大至 140-155港元。核心支撑位：142-145港元。此区间是看跌期权（PUT）持仓最密集的地带，构成强力支撑带。核心阻力位：150港元。这是重要的心理关口，也是看涨期权（CALL）持仓的集中阻力位。期权策略参考：卖出看涨期权价差策略：卖出<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA 20251219 147.5 CALL\">$BABA 20251219 147.5 CALL$&nbsp;</a> 买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA 20251219 150.0 CALL\">$BABA 20251219 150.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a> 理由：股价短期承压但下有支撑，利用高IV卖出看涨期权，最大盈利区间现价至147.5港元。止损建议：股价突破150港元时平仓。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a>重要新闻：大和证券12月16日重申腾讯控股\"买入\"评级，目标价750港元（对应2026年预测市盈率20.6倍）。大和认为主要下行风险是游戏业务表现不及预期。期权分析：当前隐含波动率（I","text":"$阿里巴巴-W(09988)$重要新闻：科技股整体承压，主要受美国AI板块回调及流动性因素影响，中芯国际、腾讯等科技股同步下跌。数据显示该股沽空活跃，半日沽空金额达176.859亿元，沽空比率16.505%。分析师评级仍以\"强力推荐\"为主（91.18%），平均目标价185.84港元。期权分析：当前隐含波动率（IV）较高但期权价格相对便宜，市场情绪偏向看空。预期股价将出现明显波动。本周（12/19）：预计在 142-150港元 之间震荡。下周（12/24）：波动范围可能扩大至 140-155港元。核心支撑位：142-145港元。此区间是看跌期权（PUT）持仓最密集的地带，构成强力支撑带。核心阻力位：150港元。这是重要的心理关口，也是看涨期权（CALL）持仓的集中阻力位。期权策略参考：卖出看涨期权价差策略：卖出$BABA 20251219 147.5 CALL$ 买入$BABA 20251219 150.0 CALL$ 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[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/519467300892688","repostId":"2601480535","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2601480535","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1767775962,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2601480535?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-07 16:52","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"2026，再苦一苦运营商吧","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2601480535","media":"科技杂谈","summary":"大幅落后于GDP增速，运营商面子、里子都没了！而往深一步的，是四大运营商内卷式的同质竞争导致的行业价值流失。2026年，可能还是要再苦一苦运营商！","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260107173915374v206q5z7lagr3zw\"/><p><strong>| 科</strong><strong>|</strong>技 | 杂<strong>|</strong>谈 |</p><p>中国通信行业第一自媒体</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260107173915965v206n1taky455p9\"/><p>本文作者：白犀牛</p><p>本文来源：白犀牛通信</p><p>国内四大运营商2025年过得挺苦的，光看一个宏观指标就能感受到其中的苦楚：</p><p>2025年中国GDP增长率预计在‌5%‌左右，而国内电信业务收入增速大概在0.9%。</p><p>这0.9%可能还是乐观的，细分到四大运营商头上，可能更加惨淡，</p><p>比如，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHL\">中国移动</a>前三季度营收增速只有0.4%。</p><p>大幅落后于GDP增速，运营商面子、里子都没了！</p><p>原因是什么呢？</p><p>表面原因是传统通信业务增长陷入泥淖，而新兴数字发展发展不及预期，形成了一个青黄不接的发展断档期。</p><p>而往深一步的，是四大运营商内卷式的同质竞争导致的行业价值流失。</p><p>而再往深一步，我认为是前几年为促进移动互联网和“大众创业万众创新”发展而推进的提速降费运动，掏走了相当一部分行业发展蓄力。</p><p>所以我们看到，电信业务总量每年按10%-15%的增速在增长，但收入却停滞了，甚至负增长。</p><p>那2026年会好吗？</p><p>判断的依据很简单，行业发展的基本面有没有大的变化？</p><p>流量经营会不会触底反弹？家庭业务会不会爆发？政企业务业务会不会实现量变到质变？新业务会不会跑出黑马？</p><p>如果上述问题的答案都为“否”，运营商的2026依然不乐观。</p><p>当然，这里面还有几个变量：</p><p>比如，三大运营商当前都在大搞对外投资，投资的收益会在一定范围内充盈运营商的现金流；</p><p>比如，新的业务板块可能会带来新的上规模的收入支流，比如，卫星通信、低空互联网、智算网络；</p><p>比如，2026年中央企业一个重要趋势就是“大力推进战略性、专业化重组整合和高质量并购”，行业格局会不会有大的变动；</p><p>还有一点，从当前趋势看，2026年商业<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000901\">航天</a>将取得关键突破，卫星互联网可能进入商用，而这与以地面互联网为主的三大运营商形成竞争关系，为了支持卫星互联网的起步、发展，在政策层面上可能会推动运营商进行策略性退让，给卫星互联网更大的成长空间。</p><p>2026年，可能还是要再苦一苦运营商！</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2026，再苦一苦运营商吧</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2026，再苦一苦运营商吧\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-07 16:52 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107174706a4a7362f&s=b><strong>科技杂谈</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>| 科|技 | 杂|谈 |中国通信行业第一自媒体本文作者：白犀牛本文来源：白犀牛通信国内四大运营商2025年过得挺苦的，光看一个宏观指标就能感受到其中的苦楚：2025年中国GDP增长率预计在‌5%‌左右，而国内电信业务收入增速大概在0.9%。这0.9%可能还是乐观的，细分到四大运营商头上，可能更加惨淡，比如，中国移动前三季度营收增速只有0.4%。大幅落后于GDP增速，运营商面子、里子都没了！原因是...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107174706a4a7362f&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"00728":"中国电信","BK1536":"电信股","BK1589":"北水核心资产","00762":"中国联通","BK1610":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK1506":"5G概念","00941":"中国移动","LU0039217434.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" INC","BK1133":"综合电信业务"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107174706a4a7362f&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2601480535","content_text":"| 科|技 | 杂|谈 |中国通信行业第一自媒体本文作者：白犀牛本文来源：白犀牛通信国内四大运营商2025年过得挺苦的，光看一个宏观指标就能感受到其中的苦楚：2025年中国GDP增长率预计在‌5%‌左右，而国内电信业务收入增速大概在0.9%。这0.9%可能还是乐观的，细分到四大运营商头上，可能更加惨淡，比如，中国移动前三季度营收增速只有0.4%。大幅落后于GDP增速，运营商面子、里子都没了！原因是什么呢？表面原因是传统通信业务增长陷入泥淖，而新兴数字发展发展不及预期，形成了一个青黄不接的发展断档期。而往深一步的，是四大运营商内卷式的同质竞争导致的行业价值流失。而再往深一步，我认为是前几年为促进移动互联网和“大众创业万众创新”发展而推进的提速降费运动，掏走了相当一部分行业发展蓄力。所以我们看到，电信业务总量每年按10%-15%的增速在增长，但收入却停滞了，甚至负增长。那2026年会好吗？判断的依据很简单，行业发展的基本面有没有大的变化？流量经营会不会触底反弹？家庭业务会不会爆发？政企业务业务会不会实现量变到质变？新业务会不会跑出黑马？如果上述问题的答案都为“否”，运营商的2026依然不乐观。当然，这里面还有几个变量：比如，三大运营商当前都在大搞对外投资，投资的收益会在一定范围内充盈运营商的现金流；比如，新的业务板块可能会带来新的上规模的收入支流，比如，卫星通信、低空互联网、智算网络；比如，2026年中央企业一个重要趋势就是“大力推进战略性、专业化重组整合和高质量并购”，行业格局会不会有大的变动；还有一点，从当前趋势看，2026年商业航天将取得关键突破，卫星互联网可能进入商用，而这与以地面互联网为主的三大运营商形成竞争关系，为了支持卫星互联网的起步、发展，在政策层面上可能会推动运营商进行策略性退让，给卫星互联网更大的成长空间。2026年，可能还是要再苦一苦运营商！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00728":0.9,"00941":0.9,"00762":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":244,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":511945478566920,"gmtCreate":1766013729370,"gmtModify":1766013731899,"author":{"id":"4207577606257330","authorId":"4207577606257330","name":"Milylee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4207577606257330","idStr":"4207577606257330"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/511945478566920","repostId":"511785723760760","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":511785723760760,"gmtCreate":1765960801682,"gmtModify":1765960821946,"author":{"id":"3527667646438385","authorId":"3527667646438385","name":"卖方笔记","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1e0deba0895fb30eee2a3aaec61cd42","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667646438385","idStr":"3527667646438385"},"themes":[],"title":"12/17港股热门期权分析：科技股遭做空 vs 巨头回购护盘","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-W(09988)$</a>重要新闻：科技股整体承压，主要受美国AI板块回调及流动性因素影响，中芯国际、腾讯等科技股同步下跌。数据显示该股沽空活跃，半日沽空金额达176.859亿元，沽空比率16.505%。分析师评级仍以\"强力推荐\"为主（91.18%），平均目标价185.84港元。期权分析：当前隐含波动率（IV）较高但期权价格相对便宜，市场情绪偏向看空。预期股价将出现明显波动。本周（12/19）：预计在 142-150港元 之间震荡。下周（12/24）：波动范围可能扩大至 140-155港元。核心支撑位：142-145港元。此区间是看跌期权（PUT）持仓最密集的地带，构成强力支撑带。核心阻力位：150港元。这是重要的心理关口，也是看涨期权（CALL）持仓的集中阻力位。期权策略参考：卖出看涨期权价差策略：卖出<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA 20251219 147.5 CALL\">$BABA 20251219 147.5 CALL$&nbsp;</a> 买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA 20251219 150.0 CALL\">$BABA 20251219 150.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a> 理由：股价短期承压但下有支撑，利用高IV卖出看涨期权，最大盈利区间现价至147.5港元。止损建议：股价突破150港元时平仓。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a>重要新闻：大和证券12月16日重申腾讯控股\"买入\"评级，目标价750港元（对应2026年预测市盈率20.6倍）。大和认为主要下行风险是游戏业务表现不及预期。期权分析：当前隐含波动率（I","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-W(09988)$</a>重要新闻：科技股整体承压，主要受美国AI板块回调及流动性因素影响，中芯国际、腾讯等科技股同步下跌。数据显示该股沽空活跃，半日沽空金额达176.859亿元，沽空比率16.505%。分析师评级仍以\"强力推荐\"为主（91.18%），平均目标价185.84港元。期权分析：当前隐含波动率（IV）较高但期权价格相对便宜，市场情绪偏向看空。预期股价将出现明显波动。本周（12/19）：预计在 142-150港元 之间震荡。下周（12/24）：波动范围可能扩大至 140-155港元。核心支撑位：142-145港元。此区间是看跌期权（PUT）持仓最密集的地带，构成强力支撑带。核心阻力位：150港元。这是重要的心理关口，也是看涨期权（CALL）持仓的集中阻力位。期权策略参考：卖出看涨期权价差策略：卖出<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA 20251219 147.5 CALL\">$BABA 20251219 147.5 CALL$&nbsp;</a> 买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA 20251219 150.0 CALL\">$BABA 20251219 150.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a> 理由：股价短期承压但下有支撑，利用高IV卖出看涨期权，最大盈利区间现价至147.5港元。止损建议：股价突破150港元时平仓。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a>重要新闻：大和证券12月16日重申腾讯控股\"买入\"评级，目标价750港元（对应2026年预测市盈率20.6倍）。大和认为主要下行风险是游戏业务表现不及预期。期权分析：当前隐含波动率（I","text":"$阿里巴巴-W(09988)$重要新闻：科技股整体承压，主要受美国AI板块回调及流动性因素影响，中芯国际、腾讯等科技股同步下跌。数据显示该股沽空活跃，半日沽空金额达176.859亿元，沽空比率16.505%。分析师评级仍以\"强力推荐\"为主（91.18%），平均目标价185.84港元。期权分析：当前隐含波动率（IV）较高但期权价格相对便宜，市场情绪偏向看空。预期股价将出现明显波动。本周（12/19）：预计在 142-150港元 之间震荡。下周（12/24）：波动范围可能扩大至 140-155港元。核心支撑位：142-145港元。此区间是看跌期权（PUT）持仓最密集的地带，构成强力支撑带。核心阻力位：150港元。这是重要的心理关口，也是看涨期权（CALL）持仓的集中阻力位。期权策略参考：卖出看涨期权价差策略：卖出$BABA 20251219 147.5 CALL$ 买入$BABA 20251219 150.0 CALL$ 理由：股价短期承压但下有支撑，利用高IV卖出看涨期权，最大盈利区间现价至147.5港元。止损建议：股价突破150港元时平仓。$腾讯控股(00700)$重要新闻：大和证券12月16日重申腾讯控股\"买入\"评级，目标价750港元（对应2026年预测市盈率20.6倍）。大和认为主要下行风险是游戏业务表现不及预期。期权分析：当前隐含波动率（I","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/511785723760760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":425439129579888,"gmtCreate":1744876895369,"gmtModify":1744877327503,"author":{"id":"4207577606257330","authorId":"4207577606257330","name":"Milylee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4207577606257330","idStr":"4207577606257330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这么强势的标的，当天就一定会翻倍的 [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","listText":"这么强势的标的，当天就一定会翻倍的 [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","text":"这么强势的标的，当天就一定会翻倍的 [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/425439129579888","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1854,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}