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曾召伦
01-29 01:29
$黄金主连 2602(GCmain)$
曾召伦
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曾召伦
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曾召伦
2025-12-04
‘丶
深夜，集体狂飙！美国资本，杀疯了！
曾召伦
2025-11-11
$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$
曾召伦
2025-09-22
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曾召伦
2025-07-29
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王锦轩:黄金上涨遇时间窗口矛盾 黄金今日走势分析操作建议
曾召伦
2025-06-14
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曾召伦
2025-05-15
$黄金主连 2506(GCmain)$
曾召伦
2024-04-10
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","text":"$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/521080453325328","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":507048395276728,"gmtCreate":1764781609956,"gmtModify":1764781612486,"author":{"id":"4174995386840000","authorId":"4174995386840000","name":"曾召伦","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4174995386840000","idStr":"4174995386840000"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"‘丶","listText":"‘丶","text":"‘丶","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/507048395276728","repostId":"2588040318","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2588040318","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1764774240,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2588040318?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-03 23:04","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"深夜，集体狂飙！美国资本，杀疯了！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2588040318","media":"券商中国","summary":"在2026年铜冶炼加工费谈判的关键节点上，铜矿供应紧张的背景下，金属铜市场的博弈正在日趋激烈。 12月3日，伦敦金属交易所的铜价，刷新历史新高，交易所数据显示，提货订单出现自2013年以来最大单日增幅。 由于纽约商品交易所—伦敦金属交易所之间的价差持续存在，资金囤铜流入美国的迹象始终不断。目前，COMEX铜库存已突破40万吨，较去年年底增加了超过300%，COMEX铜库存占国际三大交易所铜库存的比例已达62%。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L color0\">在2026年铜冶炼加工费谈判的关键节点上，铜矿供应紧张的背景下，金属铜市场的博弈正在日趋激烈。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">12月3日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）的铜价，刷新历史新高，</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">交易所数据显示，提货订单出现自2013年以来最大单日增幅。</font></font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">沪铜期货主力合约站上9万元/吨大关，亦创历史新高。</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 由于纽约商品交易所（COMEX）—伦敦金属交易所（LME）之间的价差持续存在，资金囤铜流入美国的迹象始终不断。<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">目前，COMEX铜库存已突破40万吨，较去年年底增加了超过300%，COMEX铜库存占国际三大交易所铜库存的比例已达62%。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L color0\"> 铜价刷新历史高点</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">12月3日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜价格创历史新高。伦铜日内一度涨近3%，截至发稿，涨2.59%，报11435美元/吨，创下历史新高。沪铜期货主力合约站上9万元/吨大关，现涨1.4%，创历史新高。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">此外，</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期锡涨3.45%，报40385.0美元/吨；沪锡期货主力连续合约涨3.05%，报318770元（人民币）/吨。</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">价格均创2022年5月以来新高。</font></font></font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 现货白银涨0.27%，报58.59美元/盎司；现货黄金涨超0.50%，报4226美元/盎司；WTI原油涨超1%至59.23美元/桶。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>预计，供应严重中断与全球库存错配，或将推动铜价于2026年上半年涨至12500美元/吨。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">根据LME数据，其追踪的仓库的铜提货申请量激增50575吨，达到56875吨。这是按吨数计，是2013年以来的最大增幅。</font>广州期货研究中心报告认为，当下，纽约COMEX—伦敦LME之间的价差持续存在，波动范围在200—400美元之间，COMEX铜盘面一直为Contango（升水）结构，库存堆积在美国，又因为价差及远期关税预期的存在不会流出，导致全球非美市场的流通铜始终是偏紧的。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 这一情况也反映了当前全球铜供应的脆弱性。在2025年11月下旬的上海世界铜业会议上，全球最大铜生产商智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）向中国买家提出2026年精炼铜年度合约升水报价高达335—350美元/吨，较2025年的89美元/吨猛增超275%。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 这一报价不仅创下历史新高，更远超当前现货溢价水平（不足40美元/吨），导致部分中方企业宣布将放弃明年的长期合约。近期中国铜原料联合谈判小组（CSPT）呼吁国内冶炼厂联合减产以应对低加工费，并研究设定加工费底线。由于智利铜矿产量增长乏力，非洲项目开发滞后，印尼精矿出口限制，多重因素叠加导致全球铜供应链脆弱性上升。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L color0\"> 美国资金大肆囤货</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">在全球铜供应难以短期大幅提升的背景下，美国资金正在大肆囤货。从今年3月以来，纽约商品交易所（COMEX）铜库存持续增加，其触发因素是2月份美国启动铜232调查后，市场担忧25%关税落地。在3—5月两个月时间，美国资金集中进口54万吨精炼铜，相当于2024全年进口量的60%。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 之后COMEX铜与LME铜的升水逐步扩大，而7月30日，白宫公布的铜关税政策细节与市场预期存在巨大落差，当日COMEX铜价崩盘式下跌。<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">但是COMEX铜的库存增加仍未结束，目前，COMEX铜库存突破40万吨，较去年年底增加了超过300%，COMEX铜库存占三大交易所库存已达62%。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 值得注意的是，美国消耗全球7%铜，但今年库存持续大增，背后除了有关税因素，更有战略层面的考量。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600621\">华鑫</a>期货公司章孜海认为，目前COMEX铜库存存在“战略锁定”的倾向，这也是全球铜供应体系脆弱性的集中体现。被锁定的库存看似是缓冲，实则是隐患—它降低了市场流动性，放大了区域短缺，成为铜价跨年度上涨的重要催化剂。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 默克投资创始人兼总裁阿克塞尔·默克（Axel Merk）表示，黄金、白银和铜都在上涨，有投资者正在寻求“多元化”，尤其是那些担心美元等货币购买力的投资者。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">美元指数</a>今年以来已下跌超过8%。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L color0\"> 铜价易涨难跌</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 12月份美联储一旦降息，恐进一步推高铜价，成为业内多数分析师的预测。经历9月和10月降息后，美联储12月降息预期出现了反复，但整体上，12月美联储降息的概率依然较大。美国利率期货显示市场预期美联储12月降息的概率已超过84%。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">这种局面下，铜价恐易涨难跌。铜作为“战略命脉资源”，其需求正被超算中心、AI芯片、新能源汽车、光伏四大新兴领域系统性重构，并将在2025—2030年显著改变全球铜的供需平衡表。 </font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06881\">银河证券</a>分析师<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301011\">华立</a>认为，美联储仍处于持续的降息周期中，且在流动性压力下，年底美联储或将由缩表转为扩表。流动性的边际宽松或将继续推动黄金、白银、铜价格上涨。在2026年铜冶炼加工费谈判的关键节点上，铜矿供应紧张的背景下，以及矿冶双方激烈博弈下冶炼企业提出的减产可能，从市场角度或将预期铜矿端的短缺将加速下精铜传导，若冶炼端的减产发生或将使2026年的精铜供应更为紧张，进一步刺激铜价的上涨。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 此外，美国后续仍有可能对铜加征关税的可能性下，美铜“虹吸效应”导致的全球库存分布异化、非美地区库存低位，以及美联储在四季度持续的降息与可能的停止缩表并开始扩表有望提升市场流动性，都有望带动铜价继续上涨。</p>\n<div></div>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n<p>责任编辑：何俊熹 </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>深夜，集体狂飙！美国资本，杀疯了！</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n深夜，集体狂飙！美国资本，杀疯了！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-03 23:04 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/zqgd/2025-12-03/doc-infzpwtu1083189.shtml><strong>券商中国</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在2026年铜冶炼加工费谈判的关键节点上，铜矿供应紧张的背景下，金属铜市场的博弈正在日趋激烈。\n 12月3日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）的铜价，刷新历史新高，交易所数据显示，提货订单出现自2013年以来最大单日增幅。沪铜期货主力合约站上9万元/吨大关，亦创历史新高。\n 由于纽约商品交易所（COMEX）—伦敦金属交易所（LME）之间的价差持续存在，资金囤铜流入美国的迹象始终不断。目前，COMEX铜...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/zqgd/2025-12-03/doc-infzpwtu1083189.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","TLTW":"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF","BK4588":"碎股","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","HK0000934320.USD":"GF USD MONEY MARKET FUND CLASS C (USD) ACCUMULATION","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","TMF":"3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/zqgd/2025-12-03/doc-infzpwtu1083189.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2588040318","content_text":"在2026年铜冶炼加工费谈判的关键节点上，铜矿供应紧张的背景下，金属铜市场的博弈正在日趋激烈。\n 12月3日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）的铜价，刷新历史新高，交易所数据显示，提货订单出现自2013年以来最大单日增幅。沪铜期货主力合约站上9万元/吨大关，亦创历史新高。\n 由于纽约商品交易所（COMEX）—伦敦金属交易所（LME）之间的价差持续存在，资金囤铜流入美国的迹象始终不断。目前，COMEX铜库存已突破40万吨，较去年年底增加了超过300%，COMEX铜库存占国际三大交易所铜库存的比例已达62%。\n 铜价刷新历史高点\n 12月3日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜价格创历史新高。伦铜日内一度涨近3%，截至发稿，涨2.59%，报11435美元/吨，创下历史新高。沪铜期货主力合约站上9万元/吨大关，现涨1.4%，创历史新高。\n 此外，伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期锡涨3.45%，报40385.0美元/吨；沪锡期货主力连续合约涨3.05%，报318770元（人民币）/吨。价格均创2022年5月以来新高。\n 现货白银涨0.27%，报58.59美元/盎司；现货黄金涨超0.50%，报4226美元/盎司；WTI原油涨超1%至59.23美元/桶。\n 摩根大通预计，供应严重中断与全球库存错配，或将推动铜价于2026年上半年涨至12500美元/吨。\n 根据LME数据，其追踪的仓库的铜提货申请量激增50575吨，达到56875吨。这是按吨数计，是2013年以来的最大增幅。广州期货研究中心报告认为，当下，纽约COMEX—伦敦LME之间的价差持续存在，波动范围在200—400美元之间，COMEX铜盘面一直为Contango（升水）结构，库存堆积在美国，又因为价差及远期关税预期的存在不会流出，导致全球非美市场的流通铜始终是偏紧的。\n 这一情况也反映了当前全球铜供应的脆弱性。在2025年11月下旬的上海世界铜业会议上，全球最大铜生产商智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）向中国买家提出2026年精炼铜年度合约升水报价高达335—350美元/吨，较2025年的89美元/吨猛增超275%。\n 这一报价不仅创下历史新高，更远超当前现货溢价水平（不足40美元/吨），导致部分中方企业宣布将放弃明年的长期合约。近期中国铜原料联合谈判小组（CSPT）呼吁国内冶炼厂联合减产以应对低加工费，并研究设定加工费底线。由于智利铜矿产量增长乏力，非洲项目开发滞后，印尼精矿出口限制，多重因素叠加导致全球铜供应链脆弱性上升。\n 美国资金大肆囤货\n 在全球铜供应难以短期大幅提升的背景下，美国资金正在大肆囤货。从今年3月以来，纽约商品交易所（COMEX）铜库存持续增加，其触发因素是2月份美国启动铜232调查后，市场担忧25%关税落地。在3—5月两个月时间，美国资金集中进口54万吨精炼铜，相当于2024全年进口量的60%。\n 之后COMEX铜与LME铜的升水逐步扩大，而7月30日，白宫公布的铜关税政策细节与市场预期存在巨大落差，当日COMEX铜价崩盘式下跌。但是COMEX铜的库存增加仍未结束，目前，COMEX铜库存突破40万吨，较去年年底增加了超过300%，COMEX铜库存占三大交易所库存已达62%。\n 值得注意的是，美国消耗全球7%铜，但今年库存持续大增，背后除了有关税因素，更有战略层面的考量。华鑫期货公司章孜海认为，目前COMEX铜库存存在“战略锁定”的倾向，这也是全球铜供应体系脆弱性的集中体现。被锁定的库存看似是缓冲，实则是隐患—它降低了市场流动性，放大了区域短缺，成为铜价跨年度上涨的重要催化剂。\n 默克投资创始人兼总裁阿克塞尔·默克（Axel Merk）表示，黄金、白银和铜都在上涨，有投资者正在寻求“多元化”，尤其是那些担心美元等货币购买力的投资者。美元指数今年以来已下跌超过8%。\n 铜价易涨难跌\n 12月份美联储一旦降息，恐进一步推高铜价，成为业内多数分析师的预测。经历9月和10月降息后，美联储12月降息预期出现了反复，但整体上，12月美联储降息的概率依然较大。美国利率期货显示市场预期美联储12月降息的概率已超过84%。\n 这种局面下，铜价恐易涨难跌。铜作为“战略命脉资源”，其需求正被超算中心、AI芯片、新能源汽车、光伏四大新兴领域系统性重构，并将在2025—2030年显著改变全球铜的供需平衡表。 \n 银河证券分析师华立认为，美联储仍处于持续的降息周期中，且在流动性压力下，年底美联储或将由缩表转为扩表。流动性的边际宽松或将继续推动黄金、白银、铜价格上涨。在2026年铜冶炼加工费谈判的关键节点上，铜矿供应紧张的背景下，以及矿冶双方激烈博弈下冶炼企业提出的减产可能，从市场角度或将预期铜矿端的短缺将加速下精铜传导，若冶炼端的减产发生或将使2026年的精铜供应更为紧张，进一步刺激铜价的上涨。\n 此外，美国后续仍有可能对铜加征关税的可能性下，美铜“虹吸效应”导致的全球库存分布异化、非美地区库存低位，以及美联储在四季度持续的降息与可能的停止缩表并开始扩表有望提升市场流动性，都有望带动铜价继续上涨。\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：何俊熹","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.6,"518880":0.6,"OEX":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"US5Y.BOND":0.68,"SH":0.6,"TMF":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"QCmain":0.9,"IVV":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"US7Y.BOND":0.68,"HGmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SGUmain":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"US6M.BOND":0.68,"US10Y.BOND":0.68,"SImain":0.66,"GDX":0.6,"US2Y.BOND":0.68,"US12M.BOND":0.68,"SGCmain":0.6,"NUGT":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"DUST":0.6,"GCmain":0.69,"US3Y.BOND":0.68,"IAU":0.6,"SPY":0.68,"TLTW":0.6,"MHGmain":0.9,"US30Y.BOND":0.68}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":619,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":498943008563288,"gmtCreate":1762837888697,"gmtModify":1762837890284,"author":{"id":"4174995386840000","authorId":"4174995386840000","name":"曾召伦","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4174995386840000","idStr":"4174995386840000"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连 2512(GCmain)$ </a> ′","text":"$黄金主连 2512(GCmain)$ ′","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/481300200264448","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":461835776463152,"gmtCreate":1753771515977,"gmtModify":1753773376744,"author":{"id":"4174995386840000","authorId":"4174995386840000","name":"曾召伦","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4174995386840000","idStr":"4174995386840000"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"+半 ㇏","listText":"+半 ㇏","text":"+半 ㇏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/461835776463152","repostId":"2553242516","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2553242516","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1753260600,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2553242516?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-07-23 16:50","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"王锦轩:黄金上涨遇时间窗口矛盾 黄金今日走势分析操作建议","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2553242516","media":"市场资讯","summary":"7月23日，黄金已触及3430关键位，后续上行目标可聚焦3450，周三若延续涨势，此点位将成为首要突破目标。从趋势惯性看，上方仍有延展空间，但结合时间周期与节奏规律，阶段性回落风险不容忽视。需明确的是，调整并非趋势反转，反而会成为多头再度布局的机会：自6月底至7月初，黄金从3310攀升至3438，单边涨幅近120美金，这波多头行情的顶部与调整节点需结合大周期深入研判。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p> 黄金行情走势分析：</p>\n<p>7月23日，黄金已触及3430关键位，后续上行目标可聚焦3450，周三若延续涨势，此点位将成为首要突破目标。不过，当前上涨节奏需保持警惕：若出现有效调整，行情可能由强转弱并触发短期见顶信号。从趋势惯性看，上方仍有延展空间，但结合时间周期与节奏规律，阶段性回落风险不容忽视。需明确的是，调整并非趋势反转，反而会成为多头再度布局的机会：自6月底至7月初，黄金从3310攀升至3438，单边涨幅近120美金，这波多头行情的顶部与调整节点需结合大周期深入研判。</p>\n<p> 大周期多头趋势虽未改变，但当前上涨存在时间窗口矛盾：7月市场缺乏强驱动性避险消息，仅依赖美元弱势支撑，难以形成连续大涨动能。因此，此轮行情能触及3430-3450已属强势表现，即便冲击3500前高，也大概率在3450或3500压制下展开中期调整。当前操作需坚守多头框架，但逼近3450后需收缩看涨预期。</p>\n<p> 技术面呈现多维度信号：日线布林带刚开口，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TKKD.SI\">K</a>线站稳上轨上方，强势特征显著，日线不收阴则难确认见顶，故周三收线至关重要：续阳则上看3450，收阴则释放调整预警。4小时周期已显疲态，早盘冲高3438后回落力度明显，需警惕中期顶部形成。下方支撑需关注3420-3400区间：若跌破3420，调整或延续至3400，日线收阴概率激增，周四至周五可能下探3385-3350；若3400守住，周尾大概率维持高位震荡。所以今日行情陷入多空博弈：既要坚持多头主趋势，又需警惕高位风险；高位做空属逆势冒险，顺势做多则需严格瞄准关键点位得失。</p>\n<div>\n<span>新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障</span>\n<img src=\"\"/>\n</div>\n<font>新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。</font>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n<p>责任编辑：陈平 </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>王锦轩:黄金上涨遇时间窗口矛盾 黄金今日走势分析操作建议</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; 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8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n王锦轩:黄金上涨遇时间窗口矛盾 黄金今日走势分析操作建议\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-07-23 16:50 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/nmetal/hjfx/2025-07-23/doc-infhncvn1124482.shtml><strong>市场资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>黄金行情走势分析：\n7月23日，黄金已触及3430关键位，后续上行目标可聚焦3450，周三若延续涨势，此点位将成为首要突破目标。不过，当前上涨节奏需保持警惕：若出现有效调整，行情可能由强转弱并触发短期见顶信号。从趋势惯性看，上方仍有延展空间，但结合时间周期与节奏规律，阶段性回落风险不容忽视。需明确的是，调整并非趋势反转，反而会成为多头再度布局的机会：自6月底至7月初，黄金从3310攀升至3438，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/nmetal/hjfx/2025-07-23/doc-infhncvn1124482.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"159831":"黄金","159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/nmetal/hjfx/2025-07-23/doc-infhncvn1124482.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2553242516","content_text":"黄金行情走势分析：\n7月23日，黄金已触及3430关键位，后续上行目标可聚焦3450，周三若延续涨势，此点位将成为首要突破目标。不过，当前上涨节奏需保持警惕：若出现有效调整，行情可能由强转弱并触发短期见顶信号。从趋势惯性看，上方仍有延展空间，但结合时间周期与节奏规律，阶段性回落风险不容忽视。需明确的是，调整并非趋势反转，反而会成为多头再度布局的机会：自6月底至7月初，黄金从3310攀升至3438，单边涨幅近120美金，这波多头行情的顶部与调整节点需结合大周期深入研判。\n 大周期多头趋势虽未改变，但当前上涨存在时间窗口矛盾：7月市场缺乏强驱动性避险消息，仅依赖美元弱势支撑，难以形成连续大涨动能。因此，此轮行情能触及3430-3450已属强势表现，即便冲击3500前高，也大概率在3450或3500压制下展开中期调整。当前操作需坚守多头框架，但逼近3450后需收缩看涨预期。\n 技术面呈现多维度信号：日线布林带刚开口，K线站稳上轨上方，强势特征显著，日线不收阴则难确认见顶，故周三收线至关重要：续阳则上看3450，收阴则释放调整预警。4小时周期已显疲态，早盘冲高3438后回落力度明显，需警惕中期顶部形成。下方支撑需关注3420-3400区间：若跌破3420，调整或延续至3400，日线收阴概率激增，周四至周五可能下探3385-3350；若3400守住，周尾大概率维持高位震荡。所以今日行情陷入多空博弈：既要坚持多头主趋势，又需警惕高位风险；高位做空属逆势冒险，顺势做多则需严格瞄准关键点位得失。\n\n新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障\n\n\n新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：陈平","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159831":1,"159934":0.6,"518880":0.6,"GDX":0.6,"GLD":0.6,"1OZmain":1,"GCmain":1,"SGUmain":0.6,"IAU":0.6,"NUGT":0.6,"DUST":0.6,"MGCmain":1,"SGCmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":445767826944704,"gmtCreate":1749835514374,"gmtModify":1749835522307,"author":{"id":"4174995386840000","authorId":"4174995386840000","name":"曾召伦","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4174995386840000","idStr":"4174995386840000"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/445767826944704","repostId":"2543633009","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":658,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":435315955998920,"gmtCreate":1747287702995,"gmtModify":1747288362266,"author":{"id":"4174995386840000","authorId":"4174995386840000","name":"曾召伦","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4174995386840000","idStr":"4174995386840000"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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","text":"$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/521080453325328","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":507048395276728,"gmtCreate":1764781609956,"gmtModify":1764781612486,"author":{"id":"4174995386840000","authorId":"4174995386840000","name":"曾召伦","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4174995386840000","idStr":"4174995386840000"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"‘丶","listText":"‘丶","text":"‘丶","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/507048395276728","repostId":"2588040318","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2588040318","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1764774240,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2588040318?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-03 23:04","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"深夜，集体狂飙！美国资本，杀疯了！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2588040318","media":"券商中国","summary":"在2026年铜冶炼加工费谈判的关键节点上，铜矿供应紧张的背景下，金属铜市场的博弈正在日趋激烈。 12月3日，伦敦金属交易所的铜价，刷新历史新高，交易所数据显示，提货订单出现自2013年以来最大单日增幅。 由于纽约商品交易所—伦敦金属交易所之间的价差持续存在，资金囤铜流入美国的迹象始终不断。目前，COMEX铜库存已突破40万吨，较去年年底增加了超过300%，COMEX铜库存占国际三大交易所铜库存的比例已达62%。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L color0\">在2026年铜冶炼加工费谈判的关键节点上，铜矿供应紧张的背景下，金属铜市场的博弈正在日趋激烈。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">12月3日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）的铜价，刷新历史新高，</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">交易所数据显示，提货订单出现自2013年以来最大单日增幅。</font></font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">沪铜期货主力合约站上9万元/吨大关，亦创历史新高。</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 由于纽约商品交易所（COMEX）—伦敦金属交易所（LME）之间的价差持续存在，资金囤铜流入美国的迹象始终不断。<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">目前，COMEX铜库存已突破40万吨，较去年年底增加了超过300%，COMEX铜库存占国际三大交易所铜库存的比例已达62%。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L color0\"> 铜价刷新历史高点</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">12月3日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜价格创历史新高。伦铜日内一度涨近3%，截至发稿，涨2.59%，报11435美元/吨，创下历史新高。沪铜期货主力合约站上9万元/吨大关，现涨1.4%，创历史新高。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">此外，</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期锡涨3.45%，报40385.0美元/吨；沪锡期货主力连续合约涨3.05%，报318770元（人民币）/吨。</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">价格均创2022年5月以来新高。</font></font></font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 现货白银涨0.27%，报58.59美元/盎司；现货黄金涨超0.50%，报4226美元/盎司；WTI原油涨超1%至59.23美元/桶。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>预计，供应严重中断与全球库存错配，或将推动铜价于2026年上半年涨至12500美元/吨。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">根据LME数据，其追踪的仓库的铜提货申请量激增50575吨，达到56875吨。这是按吨数计，是2013年以来的最大增幅。</font>广州期货研究中心报告认为，当下，纽约COMEX—伦敦LME之间的价差持续存在，波动范围在200—400美元之间，COMEX铜盘面一直为Contango（升水）结构，库存堆积在美国，又因为价差及远期关税预期的存在不会流出，导致全球非美市场的流通铜始终是偏紧的。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 这一情况也反映了当前全球铜供应的脆弱性。在2025年11月下旬的上海世界铜业会议上，全球最大铜生产商智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）向中国买家提出2026年精炼铜年度合约升水报价高达335—350美元/吨，较2025年的89美元/吨猛增超275%。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 这一报价不仅创下历史新高，更远超当前现货溢价水平（不足40美元/吨），导致部分中方企业宣布将放弃明年的长期合约。近期中国铜原料联合谈判小组（CSPT）呼吁国内冶炼厂联合减产以应对低加工费，并研究设定加工费底线。由于智利铜矿产量增长乏力，非洲项目开发滞后，印尼精矿出口限制，多重因素叠加导致全球铜供应链脆弱性上升。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L color0\"> 美国资金大肆囤货</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">在全球铜供应难以短期大幅提升的背景下，美国资金正在大肆囤货。从今年3月以来，纽约商品交易所（COMEX）铜库存持续增加，其触发因素是2月份美国启动铜232调查后，市场担忧25%关税落地。在3—5月两个月时间，美国资金集中进口54万吨精炼铜，相当于2024全年进口量的60%。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 之后COMEX铜与LME铜的升水逐步扩大，而7月30日，白宫公布的铜关税政策细节与市场预期存在巨大落差，当日COMEX铜价崩盘式下跌。<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">但是COMEX铜的库存增加仍未结束，目前，COMEX铜库存突破40万吨，较去年年底增加了超过300%，COMEX铜库存占三大交易所库存已达62%。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 值得注意的是，美国消耗全球7%铜，但今年库存持续大增，背后除了有关税因素，更有战略层面的考量。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600621\">华鑫</a>期货公司章孜海认为，目前COMEX铜库存存在“战略锁定”的倾向，这也是全球铜供应体系脆弱性的集中体现。被锁定的库存看似是缓冲，实则是隐患—它降低了市场流动性，放大了区域短缺，成为铜价跨年度上涨的重要催化剂。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 默克投资创始人兼总裁阿克塞尔·默克（Axel Merk）表示，黄金、白银和铜都在上涨，有投资者正在寻求“多元化”，尤其是那些担心美元等货币购买力的投资者。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">美元指数</a>今年以来已下跌超过8%。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L color0\"> 铜价易涨难跌</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 12月份美联储一旦降息，恐进一步推高铜价，成为业内多数分析师的预测。经历9月和10月降息后，美联储12月降息预期出现了反复，但整体上，12月美联储降息的概率依然较大。美国利率期货显示市场预期美联储12月降息的概率已超过84%。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L color210\">这种局面下，铜价恐易涨难跌。铜作为“战略命脉资源”，其需求正被超算中心、AI芯片、新能源汽车、光伏四大新兴领域系统性重构，并将在2025—2030年显著改变全球铜的供需平衡表。 </font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06881\">银河证券</a>分析师<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301011\">华立</a>认为，美联储仍处于持续的降息周期中，且在流动性压力下，年底美联储或将由缩表转为扩表。流动性的边际宽松或将继续推动黄金、白银、铜价格上涨。在2026年铜冶炼加工费谈判的关键节点上，铜矿供应紧张的背景下，以及矿冶双方激烈博弈下冶炼企业提出的减产可能，从市场角度或将预期铜矿端的短缺将加速下精铜传导，若冶炼端的减产发生或将使2026年的精铜供应更为紧张，进一步刺激铜价的上涨。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 此外，美国后续仍有可能对铜加征关税的可能性下，美铜“虹吸效应”导致的全球库存分布异化、非美地区库存低位，以及美联储在四季度持续的降息与可能的停止缩表并开始扩表有望提升市场流动性，都有望带动铜价继续上涨。</p>\n<div></div>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n<p>责任编辑：何俊熹 </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>深夜，集体狂飙！美国资本，杀疯了！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n深夜，集体狂飙！美国资本，杀疯了！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-03 23:04 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/zqgd/2025-12-03/doc-infzpwtu1083189.shtml><strong>券商中国</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在2026年铜冶炼加工费谈判的关键节点上，铜矿供应紧张的背景下，金属铜市场的博弈正在日趋激烈。\n 12月3日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）的铜价，刷新历史新高，交易所数据显示，提货订单出现自2013年以来最大单日增幅。沪铜期货主力合约站上9万元/吨大关，亦创历史新高。\n 由于纽约商品交易所（COMEX）—伦敦金属交易所（LME）之间的价差持续存在，资金囤铜流入美国的迹象始终不断。目前，COMEX铜...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/zqgd/2025-12-03/doc-infzpwtu1083189.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","TLTW":"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF","BK4588":"碎股","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","HK0000934320.USD":"GF USD MONEY MARKET FUND CLASS C (USD) ACCUMULATION","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","TMF":"3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/zqgd/2025-12-03/doc-infzpwtu1083189.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2588040318","content_text":"在2026年铜冶炼加工费谈判的关键节点上，铜矿供应紧张的背景下，金属铜市场的博弈正在日趋激烈。\n 12月3日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）的铜价，刷新历史新高，交易所数据显示，提货订单出现自2013年以来最大单日增幅。沪铜期货主力合约站上9万元/吨大关，亦创历史新高。\n 由于纽约商品交易所（COMEX）—伦敦金属交易所（LME）之间的价差持续存在，资金囤铜流入美国的迹象始终不断。目前，COMEX铜库存已突破40万吨，较去年年底增加了超过300%，COMEX铜库存占国际三大交易所铜库存的比例已达62%。\n 铜价刷新历史高点\n 12月3日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜价格创历史新高。伦铜日内一度涨近3%，截至发稿，涨2.59%，报11435美元/吨，创下历史新高。沪铜期货主力合约站上9万元/吨大关，现涨1.4%，创历史新高。\n 此外，伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期锡涨3.45%，报40385.0美元/吨；沪锡期货主力连续合约涨3.05%，报318770元（人民币）/吨。价格均创2022年5月以来新高。\n 现货白银涨0.27%，报58.59美元/盎司；现货黄金涨超0.50%，报4226美元/盎司；WTI原油涨超1%至59.23美元/桶。\n 摩根大通预计，供应严重中断与全球库存错配，或将推动铜价于2026年上半年涨至12500美元/吨。\n 根据LME数据，其追踪的仓库的铜提货申请量激增50575吨，达到56875吨。这是按吨数计，是2013年以来的最大增幅。广州期货研究中心报告认为，当下，纽约COMEX—伦敦LME之间的价差持续存在，波动范围在200—400美元之间，COMEX铜盘面一直为Contango（升水）结构，库存堆积在美国，又因为价差及远期关税预期的存在不会流出，导致全球非美市场的流通铜始终是偏紧的。\n 这一情况也反映了当前全球铜供应的脆弱性。在2025年11月下旬的上海世界铜业会议上，全球最大铜生产商智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）向中国买家提出2026年精炼铜年度合约升水报价高达335—350美元/吨，较2025年的89美元/吨猛增超275%。\n 这一报价不仅创下历史新高，更远超当前现货溢价水平（不足40美元/吨），导致部分中方企业宣布将放弃明年的长期合约。近期中国铜原料联合谈判小组（CSPT）呼吁国内冶炼厂联合减产以应对低加工费，并研究设定加工费底线。由于智利铜矿产量增长乏力，非洲项目开发滞后，印尼精矿出口限制，多重因素叠加导致全球铜供应链脆弱性上升。\n 美国资金大肆囤货\n 在全球铜供应难以短期大幅提升的背景下，美国资金正在大肆囤货。从今年3月以来，纽约商品交易所（COMEX）铜库存持续增加，其触发因素是2月份美国启动铜232调查后，市场担忧25%关税落地。在3—5月两个月时间，美国资金集中进口54万吨精炼铜，相当于2024全年进口量的60%。\n 之后COMEX铜与LME铜的升水逐步扩大，而7月30日，白宫公布的铜关税政策细节与市场预期存在巨大落差，当日COMEX铜价崩盘式下跌。但是COMEX铜的库存增加仍未结束，目前，COMEX铜库存突破40万吨，较去年年底增加了超过300%，COMEX铜库存占三大交易所库存已达62%。\n 值得注意的是，美国消耗全球7%铜，但今年库存持续大增，背后除了有关税因素，更有战略层面的考量。华鑫期货公司章孜海认为，目前COMEX铜库存存在“战略锁定”的倾向，这也是全球铜供应体系脆弱性的集中体现。被锁定的库存看似是缓冲，实则是隐患—它降低了市场流动性，放大了区域短缺，成为铜价跨年度上涨的重要催化剂。\n 默克投资创始人兼总裁阿克塞尔·默克（Axel Merk）表示，黄金、白银和铜都在上涨，有投资者正在寻求“多元化”，尤其是那些担心美元等货币购买力的投资者。美元指数今年以来已下跌超过8%。\n 铜价易涨难跌\n 12月份美联储一旦降息，恐进一步推高铜价，成为业内多数分析师的预测。经历9月和10月降息后，美联储12月降息预期出现了反复，但整体上，12月美联储降息的概率依然较大。美国利率期货显示市场预期美联储12月降息的概率已超过84%。\n 这种局面下，铜价恐易涨难跌。铜作为“战略命脉资源”，其需求正被超算中心、AI芯片、新能源汽车、光伏四大新兴领域系统性重构，并将在2025—2030年显著改变全球铜的供需平衡表。 \n 银河证券分析师华立认为，美联储仍处于持续的降息周期中，且在流动性压力下，年底美联储或将由缩表转为扩表。流动性的边际宽松或将继续推动黄金、白银、铜价格上涨。在2026年铜冶炼加工费谈判的关键节点上，铜矿供应紧张的背景下，以及矿冶双方激烈博弈下冶炼企业提出的减产可能，从市场角度或将预期铜矿端的短缺将加速下精铜传导，若冶炼端的减产发生或将使2026年的精铜供应更为紧张，进一步刺激铜价的上涨。\n 此外，美国后续仍有可能对铜加征关税的可能性下，美铜“虹吸效应”导致的全球库存分布异化、非美地区库存低位，以及美联储在四季度持续的降息与可能的停止缩表并开始扩表有望提升市场流动性，都有望带动铜价继续上涨。\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：何俊熹","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.6,"518880":0.6,"OEX":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"US5Y.BOND":0.68,"SH":0.6,"TMF":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"QCmain":0.9,"IVV":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"US7Y.BOND":0.68,"HGmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SGUmain":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"US6M.BOND":0.68,"US10Y.BOND":0.68,"SImain":0.66,"GDX":0.6,"US2Y.BOND":0.68,"US12M.BOND":0.68,"SGCmain":0.6,"NUGT":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"DUST":0.6,"GCmain":0.69,"US3Y.BOND":0.68,"IAU":0.6,"SPY":0.68,"TLTW":0.6,"MHGmain":0.9,"US30Y.BOND":0.68}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":619,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":498943008563288,"gmtCreate":1762837888697,"gmtModify":1762837890284,"author":{"id":"4174995386840000","authorId":"4174995386840000","name":"曾召伦","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4174995386840000","idStr":"4174995386840000"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连 2512(GCmain)$ </a> ′","text":"$黄金主连 2512(GCmain)$ ′","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/481300200264448","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":461835776463152,"gmtCreate":1753771515977,"gmtModify":1753773376744,"author":{"id":"4174995386840000","authorId":"4174995386840000","name":"曾召伦","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4174995386840000","idStr":"4174995386840000"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"+半 ㇏","listText":"+半 ㇏","text":"+半 ㇏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/461835776463152","repostId":"2553242516","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2553242516","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1753260600,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2553242516?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-07-23 16:50","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"王锦轩:黄金上涨遇时间窗口矛盾 黄金今日走势分析操作建议","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2553242516","media":"市场资讯","summary":"7月23日，黄金已触及3430关键位，后续上行目标可聚焦3450，周三若延续涨势，此点位将成为首要突破目标。从趋势惯性看，上方仍有延展空间，但结合时间周期与节奏规律，阶段性回落风险不容忽视。需明确的是，调整并非趋势反转，反而会成为多头再度布局的机会：自6月底至7月初，黄金从3310攀升至3438，单边涨幅近120美金，这波多头行情的顶部与调整节点需结合大周期深入研判。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p> 黄金行情走势分析：</p>\n<p>7月23日，黄金已触及3430关键位，后续上行目标可聚焦3450，周三若延续涨势，此点位将成为首要突破目标。不过，当前上涨节奏需保持警惕：若出现有效调整，行情可能由强转弱并触发短期见顶信号。从趋势惯性看，上方仍有延展空间，但结合时间周期与节奏规律，阶段性回落风险不容忽视。需明确的是，调整并非趋势反转，反而会成为多头再度布局的机会：自6月底至7月初，黄金从3310攀升至3438，单边涨幅近120美金，这波多头行情的顶部与调整节点需结合大周期深入研判。</p>\n<p> 大周期多头趋势虽未改变，但当前上涨存在时间窗口矛盾：7月市场缺乏强驱动性避险消息，仅依赖美元弱势支撑，难以形成连续大涨动能。因此，此轮行情能触及3430-3450已属强势表现，即便冲击3500前高，也大概率在3450或3500压制下展开中期调整。当前操作需坚守多头框架，但逼近3450后需收缩看涨预期。</p>\n<p> 技术面呈现多维度信号：日线布林带刚开口，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TKKD.SI\">K</a>线站稳上轨上方，强势特征显著，日线不收阴则难确认见顶，故周三收线至关重要：续阳则上看3450，收阴则释放调整预警。4小时周期已显疲态，早盘冲高3438后回落力度明显，需警惕中期顶部形成。下方支撑需关注3420-3400区间：若跌破3420，调整或延续至3400，日线收阴概率激增，周四至周五可能下探3385-3350；若3400守住，周尾大概率维持高位震荡。所以今日行情陷入多空博弈：既要坚持多头主趋势，又需警惕高位风险；高位做空属逆势冒险，顺势做多则需严格瞄准关键点位得失。</p>\n<div>\n<span>新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障</span>\n<img src=\"\"/>\n</div>\n<font>新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。</font>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n<p>责任编辑：陈平 </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>王锦轩:黄金上涨遇时间窗口矛盾 黄金今日走势分析操作建议</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; 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8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n王锦轩:黄金上涨遇时间窗口矛盾 黄金今日走势分析操作建议\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-07-23 16:50 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/nmetal/hjfx/2025-07-23/doc-infhncvn1124482.shtml><strong>市场资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>黄金行情走势分析：\n7月23日，黄金已触及3430关键位，后续上行目标可聚焦3450，周三若延续涨势，此点位将成为首要突破目标。不过，当前上涨节奏需保持警惕：若出现有效调整，行情可能由强转弱并触发短期见顶信号。从趋势惯性看，上方仍有延展空间，但结合时间周期与节奏规律，阶段性回落风险不容忽视。需明确的是，调整并非趋势反转，反而会成为多头再度布局的机会：自6月底至7月初，黄金从3310攀升至3438，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/nmetal/hjfx/2025-07-23/doc-infhncvn1124482.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"159831":"黄金","159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/nmetal/hjfx/2025-07-23/doc-infhncvn1124482.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2553242516","content_text":"黄金行情走势分析：\n7月23日，黄金已触及3430关键位，后续上行目标可聚焦3450，周三若延续涨势，此点位将成为首要突破目标。不过，当前上涨节奏需保持警惕：若出现有效调整，行情可能由强转弱并触发短期见顶信号。从趋势惯性看，上方仍有延展空间，但结合时间周期与节奏规律，阶段性回落风险不容忽视。需明确的是，调整并非趋势反转，反而会成为多头再度布局的机会：自6月底至7月初，黄金从3310攀升至3438，单边涨幅近120美金，这波多头行情的顶部与调整节点需结合大周期深入研判。\n 大周期多头趋势虽未改变，但当前上涨存在时间窗口矛盾：7月市场缺乏强驱动性避险消息，仅依赖美元弱势支撑，难以形成连续大涨动能。因此，此轮行情能触及3430-3450已属强势表现，即便冲击3500前高，也大概率在3450或3500压制下展开中期调整。当前操作需坚守多头框架，但逼近3450后需收缩看涨预期。\n 技术面呈现多维度信号：日线布林带刚开口，K线站稳上轨上方，强势特征显著，日线不收阴则难确认见顶，故周三收线至关重要：续阳则上看3450，收阴则释放调整预警。4小时周期已显疲态，早盘冲高3438后回落力度明显，需警惕中期顶部形成。下方支撑需关注3420-3400区间：若跌破3420，调整或延续至3400，日线收阴概率激增，周四至周五可能下探3385-3350；若3400守住，周尾大概率维持高位震荡。所以今日行情陷入多空博弈：既要坚持多头主趋势，又需警惕高位风险；高位做空属逆势冒险，顺势做多则需严格瞄准关键点位得失。\n\n新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障\n\n\n新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：陈平","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159831":1,"159934":0.6,"518880":0.6,"GDX":0.6,"GLD":0.6,"1OZmain":1,"GCmain":1,"SGUmain":0.6,"IAU":0.6,"NUGT":0.6,"DUST":0.6,"MGCmain":1,"SGCmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":445767826944704,"gmtCreate":1749835514374,"gmtModify":1749835522307,"author":{"id":"4174995386840000","authorId":"4174995386840000","name":"曾召伦","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4174995386840000","idStr":"4174995386840000"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/445767826944704","repostId":"2543633009","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":658,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":435315955998920,"gmtCreate":1747287702995,"gmtModify":1747288362266,"author":{"id":"4174995386840000","authorId":"4174995386840000","name":"曾召伦","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4174995386840000","idStr":"4174995386840000"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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