+关注
RaleighZero
暂无个人介绍
IP属地：未知
11
关注
1
粉丝
0
主题
0
勋章
主贴
热门
RaleighZero
2021-11-18
Buy !! Buy!!
NIO Stock Forecast: What To Watch For In 2022<blockquote>蔚来股票预测：2022年值得关注</blockquote>
去老虎APP查看更多动态
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"4095738673613450","uuid":"4095738673613450","gmtCreate":1632635631609,"gmtModify":1632635631609,"name":"RaleighZero","pinyin":"raleighzero","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":1,"headSize":11,"tweetSize":1,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":0,"name":"","nameTw":"","represent":"","factor":"","iconColor":"","bgColor":""},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":1,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":878720173,"gmtCreate":1637235350979,"gmtModify":1637238083836,"author":{"id":"4095738673613450","authorId":"4095738673613450","name":"RaleighZero","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4095738673613450","idStr":"4095738673613450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy !! Buy!!","listText":"Buy !! Buy!!","text":"Buy !! Buy!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878720173","repostId":"1124378970","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124378970","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637229476,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124378970?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-18 17:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Stock Forecast: What To Watch For In 2022<blockquote>蔚来股票预测：2022年值得关注</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124378970","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is one of the leading pure-play new electric vehicle makers in China.We also discuss whether investors should add NIO stock now.NIO posted weak October deliveries. Nonetheless, the company is still leading total deliveries YTD among its leading pure-play peers. The competition is very close, but NIO continues to grow rapidly. The scale and immense opportunities of the Chinese market made Elon Musk famously proclaim that China will be Tesla's largest factory and market.NIO stock has had a su","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>NIO is one of the leading pure-play new electric vehicle makers in China.</li> <li>The company is estimated to grow rapidly, as it expands aggressively into Europe next year.</li> <li>We discuss what investors should expect moving ahead in 2022 and beyond.</li> <li>We also discuss whether investors should add NIO stock now.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffccc5b06bd64a029e813af7f0627d6e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来是国内领先的纯电动汽车制造商之一。</li><li>该公司预计将快速增长，因为它明年将积极向欧洲扩张。</li><li>我们讨论了投资者在2022年及以后应该期待什么。</li><li>我们还讨论投资者现在是否应该添加蔚来股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading new electric vehicle (NEV) players. Despite almost going bankrupt a few years ago, the pure-play NEV player has made a tremendous comeback.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是国内领先的新型电动汽车（NEV）企业之一。尽管几年前差点破产，但这家纯新能源汽车公司已经卷土重来。</blockquote></p><p> NIO posted weak October deliveries. Nonetheless, the company is still leading total deliveries YTD among its leading pure-play peers. The competition is very close, but NIO continues to grow rapidly. The scale and immense opportunities of the Chinese market made Elon Musk famously proclaim that China will be Tesla's (TSLA) largest factory and market.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来10月份交付量疲软。尽管如此，该公司年初至今的总交付量仍在领先的纯业务同行中领先。竞争非常激烈，但蔚来继续快速增长。中国市场的规模和巨大机遇让Elon Musk宣布中国将成为特斯拉(TSLA)最大的工厂和市场。</blockquote></p><p> Amid NIO stock's relatively weak performance in 2021 so far, we discuss whether it's time for investors to add the stock.</p><p><blockquote>在蔚来股票2021年迄今为止表现相对疲软的情况下，我们讨论投资者是否是时候增持该股票了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Stock YTD Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来股票年初至今表现</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c286d28256f44ca6fa6deb496e6e2c98\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO stock YTD performance (as of 15 November 21).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来股票年初至今表现（截至21年11月15日）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO stock has had a subpar year in 2021. While it had started the year strongly, its upward momentum collapsed following the rotation from growth to value stock in February 2021. Despite making a remarkable recovery in May, it has remained in a consolidation phase. In contrast, its Chinese NEV peers have managed better performances so far. NIO stock is currently underperforming its leading Chinese NEV peers, and Tesla stock with a YTD return of -16.8%</p><p><blockquote>蔚来股价在2021年表现不佳。尽管该股今年开局强劲，但在2021年2月从成长股转向价值股后，其上升势头崩溃。尽管5月份出现了显着复苏，但仍处于盘整阶段。相比之下，中国新能源汽车同行迄今为止的表现更好。蔚来股票目前表现落后于中国领先的新能源汽车同行，特斯拉股票年初至今的回报率为-16.8%</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Operates in the World's Largest EV Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来在全球最大的电动汽车市场运营</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite NIO's surprising struggles, the company can count on its home market, China to support its growth. China is the #1 EV market globally, retaking the lead it briefly lost to Europe in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来遭遇了令人惊讶的困境，但该公司可以依靠其本土市场中国来支持其增长。中国是全球第一大电动汽车市场，夺回了2020年短暂输给欧洲的领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> BloombergNEF estimated that EV share of total China car sales will reach 25% in 2025, up from just 6% in 2020. China's government projections are slightly more conservative,putting it at 20% by 2025. However, China's EV sales outperformed these estimates as EV share of total sales reached 17.5% in September and averaged 13% YTD through September.</p><p><blockquote>彭博新能源财经估计，到2025年，电动汽车在中国汽车总销量中的份额将达到25%，高于2020年的6%。中国政府的预测稍微保守一些，预计到2025年将达到20%。然而，中国电动汽车销量超出了这些预期，9月份电动汽车占总销量的份额达到17.5%，年初至今至9月份平均为13%。</blockquote></p><p> Hence, we believe the massive secular tailwinds underpinned by China's national agenda in EV adoption will continue driving growth for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们相信，中国电动汽车采用国家议程所支撑的巨大长期推动力将继续推动蔚来的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, the company expects China to be its most important market even as it charts its European (the world #2 EV market) expansion. NIO CEO William Li emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，该公司预计中国将成为其最重要的市场，尽管它正在规划其欧洲（世界第二大电动汽车市场）的扩张。蔚来首席执行官William Li强调：</blockquote></p><p> If we look at the global market, we can see that <i>China is still the biggest auto market and the biggest premium market</i>, so China will still be the most important market for us. But I believe for the markets outside of China in the long term, they should account for around 50% of the -- of all sales of our product. (from NIO's FQ3'21 earnings call) Therefore, we expect China to continue driving the growth of the company moving forward as it scales. NIO highlighted that it currently has a maximum annual production capacity of 600K. Therefore, the company has positioned itself very well to scale its production moving forward. Considering its current YTD deliveries, we believe NIO's market opportunity is still in the early innings.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们放眼全球市场，我们可以看到<i>中国仍然是最大的汽车市场和最大的高端市场</i>，所以中国仍将是我们最重要的市场。但我相信，从长远来看，对于中国以外的市场，它们应该占我们产品总销售额的50%左右。（来自蔚来21年第三季度盈利看涨期权）因此，我们预计随着公司规模的扩大，中国将继续推动公司的增长。蔚来强调，目前最大年产能为60万辆。因此，该公司已经做好了扩大生产规模的准备。考虑到目前年初至今的交付量，我们认为蔚来的市场机会仍处于早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO's Fledgling Market Opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来刚刚起步的市场机遇</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01decb5c7ce129cf9fc59b2b13ccba85\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>China's leading NEV makers YTD October 21 deliveries. Data source: Various company filings, China Passenger Car Association</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国领先的新能源汽车制造商年初至今10月21日交付量。数据来源：各企业备案，中国乘联会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BYD Company Limited (OTCPK:BYDDF) is China's leading NEV maker. Its YTD deliveries (through October 21) highlight the company's undisputed leadership. We also discussed BYD's thesis in a recent article. Notwithstanding, NIO continues to lead its pure-play peers on YTD deliveries. However, the competition is very close. Nonetheless, we believe that China's massive tailwinds driving EV adoptions would continue to benefit NIO and its peers.</p><p><blockquote>比亚迪股份有限公司（OTCPK：BYDDF）是中国领先的新能源汽车制造商。其年初至今的交付量（截至10月21日）凸显了该公司无可争议的领导地位。我们还在最近的一篇文章中讨论了比亚迪的论文。尽管如此，蔚来今年迄今的交付量继续领先于纯同行。然而，竞争非常激烈。尽管如此，我们相信中国推动电动汽车采用的巨大推动力将继续使蔚来及其同行受益。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, even though NIO reported underwhelming October delivery numbers, we don't believe it's a cause of concern. We will touch more on that later.</p><p><blockquote>此外，尽管蔚来公布的10月份交付数据令人印象深刻，但我们认为这并不令人担忧。我们稍后将详细讨论这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d6d8b43b9aff12d916fdb0327e8974\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO YTD October 21 deliveries by month. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来年初至今10月21日每月交付量。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28ea81aba6c5ceedc67d354d0fe0f604\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO quarterly deliveries by model. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来按型号划分的季度交付量。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Readers can observe the \"abnormally\" weak October delivery numbers of 3.67K. However, we are not unduly concerned about October's numbers. The company telegraphed it needed some downtime to adjust its manufacturing processes to scale ET7 (NIO's upcoming flagship sedan). Notably, the company emphasized that it has \"resumed normal production since late October.\" Li articulated (edited for brevity):</p><p><blockquote>读者可以观察到3.67 K的“异常”疲软的10月份交付数据。然而，我们并不过度担心10月份的数字。该公司表示，需要一些停机时间来调整其制造流程，以扩大ET7（蔚来即将推出的旗舰轿车）的规模。值得注意的是，该公司强调“自10月下旬以来已恢复正常生产”。李阐述（为简洁起见进行了编辑）：</blockquote></p><p> ...To prepare for further capacity expansion and new product introductions including ET7, we implemented upgrades and the restructuring of the manufacturing lines at the Hefei JAC-NIO Advanced Manufacturing Center. <i>Affected by the upgrades and the restructuring, we delivered 3,667 vehicles in October</i>. The plant has resumed normal production since late October. (from NIO's FQ3'21 earnings call) Therefore, we are not too concerned with October's problems. The company guided Q4 deliveries to be between 23.5K to 25.5K. Hence, Q4 deliveries are estimated to be about 24.5K at the midpoint of NIO's guidance. Therefore, QoQ growth is estimated to be flat. Notwithstanding, if we account for October's \"abnormally\" weak numbers, the company expects strong deliveries in November and December. On average, the company expects to deliver about 10.42K units each month for November and December, respectively. That would place it in line with September's record month of 10.63K deliveries. Therefore, the worries about October's weakness have been overblown.</p><p><blockquote>为进一步扩大产能及推出ET7等新产品，我们对蔚来先进制造中心的生产线进行了升级改造。<i>受升级及重组影响，我们于10月交付3,667辆</i>该工厂自10月下旬起已恢复正常生产。（来自蔚来21年第三季度收益看涨期权）因此，我们并不太关心10月份的问题。该公司预计第四季度交付量在23,500至25,500之间。因此，第四季度的交付量估计约为24.5万辆，处于蔚来指导的中点。因此，环比增长预计持平。尽管如此，如果我们考虑到10月份“异常”疲软的数据，该公司预计11月和12月的交付量将强劲。平均而言，该公司预计11月和12月每月分别交付约10,42万台。这将使其与9月份创纪录的10.63万辆交付量持平。因此，对10月疲软的担忧被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's expected deliveries for FY21 would amount to about 90.9K units. Compared to its annual production capacity of 600K units, it's clear that NIO expects to ramp production rapidly moving forward. While it might take some time to reach the 600K annualized run rate, NIO is preparing to launch 3 new products (including ET7) based on its NIO Technology Platform 2.0 in 2022. Therefore, the company is actively refreshing its slate and expects to continue its rapid delivery growth next year.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来预计2021财年的交付量约为9.09万辆。与60万辆的年产能相比，蔚来显然希望未来迅速提高产量。虽然达到60万的年化运行率可能需要一段时间，但蔚来正准备在2022年推出3款基于其蔚来技术平台2.0的新产品（包括ET7）。因此，该公司正在积极刷新其名单，并预计明年将继续其快速的交付增长。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, the company also expects to navigate the chip supply crunch well. It has also impacted NIO in the near term. However, NIO demonstrated its capabilities on its in-house technology as Li explained that they have managed to get around those problems. Li added:</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，该公司还预计能够很好地应对芯片供应紧缩。它在短期内也影响了蔚来。然而，蔚来展示了其内部技术的能力，李解释说他们已经设法解决了这些问题。李补充道：</blockquote></p><p> I would like to specifically mention that because the <i>many domain controllers in our vehicles are actually developed by ourselves in-house</i>. So if there is a shortage of certain chips in the domain controllers, our teams have the capability to quickly find the alternative and do the rapid validation and faster production of those vehicles and the chips. So because of these capabilities, we have already <i>resolved some chip shortage situations happened to our vehicles</i>. (from NIO's FQ3 earnings call) <b>Consensus Estimates Also Agree With NIO's Rapid Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote>我想特别提一下，因为<i>我们车辆中的许多域控制器实际上都是我们自己内部开发的</i>因此，如果域控制器中的某些芯片短缺，我们的团队有能力快速找到替代方案，并对这些车辆和芯片进行快速验证和更快的生产。所以因为这些能力，我们已经<i>解决了我们车辆出现的一些芯片短缺情况</i>.（摘自蔚来第三季度财报看涨期权）<b>共识估计也与蔚来的快速扩张一致</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75908e4cc1b0e008a565a8faaa67a434\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO LTM revenue & operating margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来LTM收入和营业利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/956abb3d98a0a3907c217e0c2e4b00c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO est. revenue mean consensus & est. EBIT margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来东部。收入平均值共识和估计值。息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Readers can quickly glean from the first chart above that NIO has expanded its top line rapidly. Notably, it has also managed to improve its operating leverage tremendously as it scales. As explained, we believe that NIO is very early on in its profitability growth. Given that it has an annualized production capacity of 600K, NIO is still expected to grow rapidly. The company is estimated to grow its top line by a phenomenal CAGR of 77.7% through FY23.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以从上面的第一张图表中很快发现，蔚来的营收迅速扩大。值得注意的是，随着规模的扩大，它还成功地极大地提高了运营杠杆。正如所解释的，我们认为蔚来的盈利增长还处于早期阶段。鉴于其拥有60万的年化产能，蔚来仍有望快速增长。据估计，通过2023财年，该公司的营收将以惊人的77.7%的复合年增长率增长。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, its EBIT consensus estimates also point to a lower EBIT loss margin of 2.1% in FY22. NIO is estimated to turn EBIT profitable by FY23, with an est. EBIT margin of 3.2%.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，其息税前利润共识估计还表明，2022财年息税前利润损失率较低，为2.1%。2023财年预计蔚来将使息税前利润实现盈利。息税前利润率为3.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, NIO investors can continue to expect the company to gain traction in its European journey and its home market. In addition, we encourage investors to pay close attention to its new product launches in 2022 as the company expects a strong delivery cadence moving forward. Notwithstanding, based on FQ4'21's guidance, November and December delivery numbers should also be impressive.</p><p><blockquote>因此，蔚来投资者可以继续期待该公司在欧洲之旅和本土市场获得关注。此外，我们鼓励投资者密切关注其2022年的新产品发布，因为该公司预计未来将有强劲的交付节奏。尽管如此，根据21年第四季度的指导，11月和12月的交付数量也应该令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So, is NIO Stock a Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，蔚来股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b943b23fe0e9f66e7db0040c15948ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO stock EV/NTM Revenue 3Y mean.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来股票EV/NTM收入3年平均值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> NIO stock is trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 7.9x. It has come a long way down from its January highs. Moreover, it's also just about 14% above its 3Y mean. Therefore, we believe that NIO stock's valuation seems attractive now. It's a much stronger company than it was three years ago. In addition, it has also significantly improved its operating leverage. Coupled with strong secular drivers underpinning its rapid growth ahead, we believe long-term investors would do well to sit on it. If NIO can continue to build on its delivery cadence, we think that the stock will be re-rated moving ahead in FY22. Therefore, investors should capitalize on its weakness now to add NIO stock to their portfolios.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来股票的EV/NTM收入为7.9倍。它已经从一月份的高点下跌了很长一段时间。此外，它也比3年平均水平高出约14%。因此，我们认为蔚来股票的估值现在看起来很有吸引力。这是一家比三年前强大得多的公司。此外，还显著提升了经营杠杆。再加上支撑其未来快速增长的强大长期驱动因素，我们相信长期投资者最好坐以待毙。如果蔚来能够继续提高其交付节奏，我们认为该股将在2022财年重新评级。因此，投资者现在应该利用其疲软的机会将蔚来股票添加到他们的投资组合中。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, we<i>rate NIO stock at Buy</i>.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们<i>蔚来股票评级为买入</i>.</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Stock Forecast: What To Watch For In 2022<blockquote>蔚来股票预测：2022年值得关注</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Stock Forecast: What To Watch For In 2022<blockquote>蔚来股票预测：2022年值得关注</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-18 17:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>NIO is one of the leading pure-play new electric vehicle makers in China.</li> <li>The company is estimated to grow rapidly, as it expands aggressively into Europe next year.</li> <li>We discuss what investors should expect moving ahead in 2022 and beyond.</li> <li>We also discuss whether investors should add NIO stock now.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffccc5b06bd64a029e813af7f0627d6e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来是国内领先的纯电动汽车制造商之一。</li><li>该公司预计将快速增长，因为它明年将积极向欧洲扩张。</li><li>我们讨论了投资者在2022年及以后应该期待什么。</li><li>我们还讨论投资者现在是否应该添加蔚来股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading new electric vehicle (NEV) players. Despite almost going bankrupt a few years ago, the pure-play NEV player has made a tremendous comeback.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是国内领先的新型电动汽车（NEV）企业之一。尽管几年前差点破产，但这家纯新能源汽车公司已经卷土重来。</blockquote></p><p> NIO posted weak October deliveries. Nonetheless, the company is still leading total deliveries YTD among its leading pure-play peers. The competition is very close, but NIO continues to grow rapidly. The scale and immense opportunities of the Chinese market made Elon Musk famously proclaim that China will be Tesla's (TSLA) largest factory and market.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来10月份交付量疲软。尽管如此，该公司年初至今的总交付量仍在领先的纯业务同行中领先。竞争非常激烈，但蔚来继续快速增长。中国市场的规模和巨大机遇让Elon Musk宣布中国将成为特斯拉(TSLA)最大的工厂和市场。</blockquote></p><p> Amid NIO stock's relatively weak performance in 2021 so far, we discuss whether it's time for investors to add the stock.</p><p><blockquote>在蔚来股票2021年迄今为止表现相对疲软的情况下，我们讨论投资者是否是时候增持该股票了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Stock YTD Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来股票年初至今表现</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c286d28256f44ca6fa6deb496e6e2c98\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO stock YTD performance (as of 15 November 21).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来股票年初至今表现（截至21年11月15日）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO stock has had a subpar year in 2021. While it had started the year strongly, its upward momentum collapsed following the rotation from growth to value stock in February 2021. Despite making a remarkable recovery in May, it has remained in a consolidation phase. In contrast, its Chinese NEV peers have managed better performances so far. NIO stock is currently underperforming its leading Chinese NEV peers, and Tesla stock with a YTD return of -16.8%</p><p><blockquote>蔚来股价在2021年表现不佳。尽管该股今年开局强劲，但在2021年2月从成长股转向价值股后，其上升势头崩溃。尽管5月份出现了显着复苏，但仍处于盘整阶段。相比之下，中国新能源汽车同行迄今为止的表现更好。蔚来股票目前表现落后于中国领先的新能源汽车同行，特斯拉股票年初至今的回报率为-16.8%</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Operates in the World's Largest EV Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来在全球最大的电动汽车市场运营</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite NIO's surprising struggles, the company can count on its home market, China to support its growth. China is the #1 EV market globally, retaking the lead it briefly lost to Europe in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来遭遇了令人惊讶的困境，但该公司可以依靠其本土市场中国来支持其增长。中国是全球第一大电动汽车市场，夺回了2020年短暂输给欧洲的领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> BloombergNEF estimated that EV share of total China car sales will reach 25% in 2025, up from just 6% in 2020. China's government projections are slightly more conservative,putting it at 20% by 2025. However, China's EV sales outperformed these estimates as EV share of total sales reached 17.5% in September and averaged 13% YTD through September.</p><p><blockquote>彭博新能源财经估计，到2025年，电动汽车在中国汽车总销量中的份额将达到25%，高于2020年的6%。中国政府的预测稍微保守一些，预计到2025年将达到20%。然而，中国电动汽车销量超出了这些预期，9月份电动汽车占总销量的份额达到17.5%，年初至今至9月份平均为13%。</blockquote></p><p> Hence, we believe the massive secular tailwinds underpinned by China's national agenda in EV adoption will continue driving growth for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们相信，中国电动汽车采用国家议程所支撑的巨大长期推动力将继续推动蔚来的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, the company expects China to be its most important market even as it charts its European (the world #2 EV market) expansion. NIO CEO William Li emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，该公司预计中国将成为其最重要的市场，尽管它正在规划其欧洲（世界第二大电动汽车市场）的扩张。蔚来首席执行官William Li强调：</blockquote></p><p> If we look at the global market, we can see that <i>China is still the biggest auto market and the biggest premium market</i>, so China will still be the most important market for us. But I believe for the markets outside of China in the long term, they should account for around 50% of the -- of all sales of our product. (from NIO's FQ3'21 earnings call) Therefore, we expect China to continue driving the growth of the company moving forward as it scales. NIO highlighted that it currently has a maximum annual production capacity of 600K. Therefore, the company has positioned itself very well to scale its production moving forward. Considering its current YTD deliveries, we believe NIO's market opportunity is still in the early innings.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们放眼全球市场，我们可以看到<i>中国仍然是最大的汽车市场和最大的高端市场</i>，所以中国仍将是我们最重要的市场。但我相信，从长远来看，对于中国以外的市场，它们应该占我们产品总销售额的50%左右。（来自蔚来21年第三季度盈利看涨期权）因此，我们预计随着公司规模的扩大，中国将继续推动公司的增长。蔚来强调，目前最大年产能为60万辆。因此，该公司已经做好了扩大生产规模的准备。考虑到目前年初至今的交付量，我们认为蔚来的市场机会仍处于早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO's Fledgling Market Opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来刚刚起步的市场机遇</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01decb5c7ce129cf9fc59b2b13ccba85\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>China's leading NEV makers YTD October 21 deliveries. Data source: Various company filings, China Passenger Car Association</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国领先的新能源汽车制造商年初至今10月21日交付量。数据来源：各企业备案，中国乘联会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BYD Company Limited (OTCPK:BYDDF) is China's leading NEV maker. Its YTD deliveries (through October 21) highlight the company's undisputed leadership. We also discussed BYD's thesis in a recent article. Notwithstanding, NIO continues to lead its pure-play peers on YTD deliveries. However, the competition is very close. Nonetheless, we believe that China's massive tailwinds driving EV adoptions would continue to benefit NIO and its peers.</p><p><blockquote>比亚迪股份有限公司（OTCPK：BYDDF）是中国领先的新能源汽车制造商。其年初至今的交付量（截至10月21日）凸显了该公司无可争议的领导地位。我们还在最近的一篇文章中讨论了比亚迪的论文。尽管如此，蔚来今年迄今的交付量继续领先于纯同行。然而，竞争非常激烈。尽管如此，我们相信中国推动电动汽车采用的巨大推动力将继续使蔚来及其同行受益。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, even though NIO reported underwhelming October delivery numbers, we don't believe it's a cause of concern. We will touch more on that later.</p><p><blockquote>此外，尽管蔚来公布的10月份交付数据令人印象深刻，但我们认为这并不令人担忧。我们稍后将详细讨论这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d6d8b43b9aff12d916fdb0327e8974\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO YTD October 21 deliveries by month. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来年初至今10月21日每月交付量。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28ea81aba6c5ceedc67d354d0fe0f604\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO quarterly deliveries by model. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来按型号划分的季度交付量。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Readers can observe the \"abnormally\" weak October delivery numbers of 3.67K. However, we are not unduly concerned about October's numbers. The company telegraphed it needed some downtime to adjust its manufacturing processes to scale ET7 (NIO's upcoming flagship sedan). Notably, the company emphasized that it has \"resumed normal production since late October.\" Li articulated (edited for brevity):</p><p><blockquote>读者可以观察到3.67 K的“异常”疲软的10月份交付数据。然而，我们并不过度担心10月份的数字。该公司表示，需要一些停机时间来调整其制造流程，以扩大ET7（蔚来即将推出的旗舰轿车）的规模。值得注意的是，该公司强调“自10月下旬以来已恢复正常生产”。李阐述（为简洁起见进行了编辑）：</blockquote></p><p> ...To prepare for further capacity expansion and new product introductions including ET7, we implemented upgrades and the restructuring of the manufacturing lines at the Hefei JAC-NIO Advanced Manufacturing Center. <i>Affected by the upgrades and the restructuring, we delivered 3,667 vehicles in October</i>. The plant has resumed normal production since late October. (from NIO's FQ3'21 earnings call) Therefore, we are not too concerned with October's problems. The company guided Q4 deliveries to be between 23.5K to 25.5K. Hence, Q4 deliveries are estimated to be about 24.5K at the midpoint of NIO's guidance. Therefore, QoQ growth is estimated to be flat. Notwithstanding, if we account for October's \"abnormally\" weak numbers, the company expects strong deliveries in November and December. On average, the company expects to deliver about 10.42K units each month for November and December, respectively. That would place it in line with September's record month of 10.63K deliveries. Therefore, the worries about October's weakness have been overblown.</p><p><blockquote>为进一步扩大产能及推出ET7等新产品，我们对蔚来先进制造中心的生产线进行了升级改造。<i>受升级及重组影响，我们于10月交付3,667辆</i>该工厂自10月下旬起已恢复正常生产。（来自蔚来21年第三季度收益看涨期权）因此，我们并不太关心10月份的问题。该公司预计第四季度交付量在23,500至25,500之间。因此，第四季度的交付量估计约为24.5万辆，处于蔚来指导的中点。因此，环比增长预计持平。尽管如此，如果我们考虑到10月份“异常”疲软的数据，该公司预计11月和12月的交付量将强劲。平均而言，该公司预计11月和12月每月分别交付约10,42万台。这将使其与9月份创纪录的10.63万辆交付量持平。因此，对10月疲软的担忧被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's expected deliveries for FY21 would amount to about 90.9K units. Compared to its annual production capacity of 600K units, it's clear that NIO expects to ramp production rapidly moving forward. While it might take some time to reach the 600K annualized run rate, NIO is preparing to launch 3 new products (including ET7) based on its NIO Technology Platform 2.0 in 2022. Therefore, the company is actively refreshing its slate and expects to continue its rapid delivery growth next year.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来预计2021财年的交付量约为9.09万辆。与60万辆的年产能相比，蔚来显然希望未来迅速提高产量。虽然达到60万的年化运行率可能需要一段时间，但蔚来正准备在2022年推出3款基于其蔚来技术平台2.0的新产品（包括ET7）。因此，该公司正在积极刷新其名单，并预计明年将继续其快速的交付增长。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, the company also expects to navigate the chip supply crunch well. It has also impacted NIO in the near term. However, NIO demonstrated its capabilities on its in-house technology as Li explained that they have managed to get around those problems. Li added:</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，该公司还预计能够很好地应对芯片供应紧缩。它在短期内也影响了蔚来。然而，蔚来展示了其内部技术的能力，李解释说他们已经设法解决了这些问题。李补充道：</blockquote></p><p> I would like to specifically mention that because the <i>many domain controllers in our vehicles are actually developed by ourselves in-house</i>. So if there is a shortage of certain chips in the domain controllers, our teams have the capability to quickly find the alternative and do the rapid validation and faster production of those vehicles and the chips. So because of these capabilities, we have already <i>resolved some chip shortage situations happened to our vehicles</i>. (from NIO's FQ3 earnings call) <b>Consensus Estimates Also Agree With NIO's Rapid Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote>我想特别提一下，因为<i>我们车辆中的许多域控制器实际上都是我们自己内部开发的</i>因此，如果域控制器中的某些芯片短缺，我们的团队有能力快速找到替代方案，并对这些车辆和芯片进行快速验证和更快的生产。所以因为这些能力，我们已经<i>解决了我们车辆出现的一些芯片短缺情况</i>.（摘自蔚来第三季度财报看涨期权）<b>共识估计也与蔚来的快速扩张一致</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75908e4cc1b0e008a565a8faaa67a434\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO LTM revenue & operating margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来LTM收入和营业利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/956abb3d98a0a3907c217e0c2e4b00c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO est. revenue mean consensus & est. EBIT margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来东部。收入平均值共识和估计值。息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Readers can quickly glean from the first chart above that NIO has expanded its top line rapidly. Notably, it has also managed to improve its operating leverage tremendously as it scales. As explained, we believe that NIO is very early on in its profitability growth. Given that it has an annualized production capacity of 600K, NIO is still expected to grow rapidly. The company is estimated to grow its top line by a phenomenal CAGR of 77.7% through FY23.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以从上面的第一张图表中很快发现，蔚来的营收迅速扩大。值得注意的是，随着规模的扩大，它还成功地极大地提高了运营杠杆。正如所解释的，我们认为蔚来的盈利增长还处于早期阶段。鉴于其拥有60万的年化产能，蔚来仍有望快速增长。据估计，通过2023财年，该公司的营收将以惊人的77.7%的复合年增长率增长。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, its EBIT consensus estimates also point to a lower EBIT loss margin of 2.1% in FY22. NIO is estimated to turn EBIT profitable by FY23, with an est. EBIT margin of 3.2%.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，其息税前利润共识估计还表明，2022财年息税前利润损失率较低，为2.1%。2023财年预计蔚来将使息税前利润实现盈利。息税前利润率为3.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, NIO investors can continue to expect the company to gain traction in its European journey and its home market. In addition, we encourage investors to pay close attention to its new product launches in 2022 as the company expects a strong delivery cadence moving forward. Notwithstanding, based on FQ4'21's guidance, November and December delivery numbers should also be impressive.</p><p><blockquote>因此，蔚来投资者可以继续期待该公司在欧洲之旅和本土市场获得关注。此外，我们鼓励投资者密切关注其2022年的新产品发布，因为该公司预计未来将有强劲的交付节奏。尽管如此，根据21年第四季度的指导，11月和12月的交付数量也应该令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So, is NIO Stock a Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，蔚来股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b943b23fe0e9f66e7db0040c15948ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO stock EV/NTM Revenue 3Y mean.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来股票EV/NTM收入3年平均值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> NIO stock is trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 7.9x. It has come a long way down from its January highs. Moreover, it's also just about 14% above its 3Y mean. Therefore, we believe that NIO stock's valuation seems attractive now. It's a much stronger company than it was three years ago. In addition, it has also significantly improved its operating leverage. Coupled with strong secular drivers underpinning its rapid growth ahead, we believe long-term investors would do well to sit on it. If NIO can continue to build on its delivery cadence, we think that the stock will be re-rated moving ahead in FY22. Therefore, investors should capitalize on its weakness now to add NIO stock to their portfolios.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来股票的EV/NTM收入为7.9倍。它已经从一月份的高点下跌了很长一段时间。此外，它也比3年平均水平高出约14%。因此，我们认为蔚来股票的估值现在看起来很有吸引力。这是一家比三年前强大得多的公司。此外，还显著提升了经营杠杆。再加上支撑其未来快速增长的强大长期驱动因素，我们相信长期投资者最好坐以待毙。如果蔚来能够继续提高其交付节奏，我们认为该股将在2022财年重新评级。因此，投资者现在应该利用其疲软的机会将蔚来股票添加到他们的投资组合中。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, we<i>rate NIO stock at Buy</i>.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们<i>蔚来股票评级为买入</i>.</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470158-nio-stock-forecast\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470158-nio-stock-forecast","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124378970","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is one of the leading pure-play new electric vehicle makers in China.\nThe company is estimated to grow rapidly, as it expands aggressively into Europe next year.\nWe discuss what investors should expect moving ahead in 2022 and beyond.\nWe also discuss whether investors should add NIO stock now.\n\nAndy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nNIO Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading new electric vehicle (NEV) players. Despite almost going bankrupt a few years ago, the pure-play NEV player has made a tremendous comeback.\nNIO posted weak October deliveries. Nonetheless, the company is still leading total deliveries YTD among its leading pure-play peers. The competition is very close, but NIO continues to grow rapidly. The scale and immense opportunities of the Chinese market made Elon Musk famously proclaim that China will be Tesla's (TSLA) largest factory and market.\nAmid NIO stock's relatively weak performance in 2021 so far, we discuss whether it's time for investors to add the stock.\nNIO Stock YTD Performance\nNIO stock YTD performance (as of 15 November 21).\nNIO stock has had a subpar year in 2021. While it had started the year strongly, its upward momentum collapsed following the rotation from growth to value stock in February 2021. Despite making a remarkable recovery in May, it has remained in a consolidation phase. In contrast, its Chinese NEV peers have managed better performances so far. NIO stock is currently underperforming its leading Chinese NEV peers, and Tesla stock with a YTD return of -16.8%\nNIO Operates in the World's Largest EV Market\nDespite NIO's surprising struggles, the company can count on its home market, China to support its growth. China is the #1 EV market globally, retaking the lead it briefly lost to Europe in 2020.\nBloombergNEF estimated that EV share of total China car sales will reach 25% in 2025, up from just 6% in 2020. China's government projections are slightly more conservative,putting it at 20% by 2025. However, China's EV sales outperformed these estimates as EV share of total sales reached 17.5% in September and averaged 13% YTD through September.\nHence, we believe the massive secular tailwinds underpinned by China's national agenda in EV adoption will continue driving growth for NIO.\nNotably, the company expects China to be its most important market even as it charts its European (the world #2 EV market) expansion. NIO CEO William Li emphasized:\n\n If we look at the global market, we can see that\n China is still the biggest auto market and the biggest premium market, so China will still be the most important market for us. But I believe for the markets outside of China in the long term, they should account for around 50% of the -- of all sales of our product. (from NIO's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n\nTherefore, we expect China to continue driving the growth of the company moving forward as it scales. NIO highlighted that it currently has a maximum annual production capacity of 600K. Therefore, the company has positioned itself very well to scale its production moving forward. Considering its current YTD deliveries, we believe NIO's market opportunity is still in the early innings.\nNIO's Fledgling Market Opportunity\nChina's leading NEV makers YTD October 21 deliveries. Data source: Various company filings, China Passenger Car Association\nBYD Company Limited (OTCPK:BYDDF) is China's leading NEV maker. Its YTD deliveries (through October 21) highlight the company's undisputed leadership. We also discussed BYD's thesis in a recent article. Notwithstanding, NIO continues to lead its pure-play peers on YTD deliveries. However, the competition is very close. Nonetheless, we believe that China's massive tailwinds driving EV adoptions would continue to benefit NIO and its peers.\nIn addition, even though NIO reported underwhelming October delivery numbers, we don't believe it's a cause of concern. We will touch more on that later.\nNIO YTD October 21 deliveries by month. Data source: Company filings\nNIO quarterly deliveries by model. Data source: Company filings\nReaders can observe the \"abnormally\" weak October delivery numbers of 3.67K. However, we are not unduly concerned about October's numbers. The company telegraphed it needed some downtime to adjust its manufacturing processes to scale ET7 (NIO's upcoming flagship sedan). Notably, the company emphasized that it has \"resumed normal production since late October.\" Li articulated (edited for brevity):\n\n ...To prepare for further capacity expansion and new product introductions including ET7, we implemented upgrades and the restructuring of the manufacturing lines at the Hefei JAC-NIO Advanced Manufacturing Center.\n Affected by the upgrades and the restructuring, we delivered 3,667 vehicles in October. The plant has resumed normal production since late October. (from NIO's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n\nTherefore, we are not too concerned with October's problems. The company guided Q4 deliveries to be between 23.5K to 25.5K. Hence, Q4 deliveries are estimated to be about 24.5K at the midpoint of NIO's guidance. Therefore, QoQ growth is estimated to be flat. Notwithstanding, if we account for October's \"abnormally\" weak numbers, the company expects strong deliveries in November and December. On average, the company expects to deliver about 10.42K units each month for November and December, respectively. That would place it in line with September's record month of 10.63K deliveries. Therefore, the worries about October's weakness have been overblown.\nNIO's expected deliveries for FY21 would amount to about 90.9K units. Compared to its annual production capacity of 600K units, it's clear that NIO expects to ramp production rapidly moving forward. While it might take some time to reach the 600K annualized run rate, NIO is preparing to launch 3 new products (including ET7) based on its NIO Technology Platform 2.0 in 2022. Therefore, the company is actively refreshing its slate and expects to continue its rapid delivery growth next year.\nNotably, the company also expects to navigate the chip supply crunch well. It has also impacted NIO in the near term. However, NIO demonstrated its capabilities on its in-house technology as Li explained that they have managed to get around those problems. Li added:\n\n I would like to specifically mention that because the\n many domain controllers in our vehicles are actually developed by ourselves in-house. So if there is a shortage of certain chips in the domain controllers, our teams have the capability to quickly find the alternative and do the rapid validation and faster production of those vehicles and the chips. So because of these capabilities, we have already\n resolved some chip shortage situations happened to our vehicles. (from NIO's FQ3 earnings call)\n\nConsensus Estimates Also Agree With NIO's Rapid Expansion\nNIO LTM revenue & operating margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nNIO est. revenue mean consensus & est. EBIT margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nReaders can quickly glean from the first chart above that NIO has expanded its top line rapidly. Notably, it has also managed to improve its operating leverage tremendously as it scales. As explained, we believe that NIO is very early on in its profitability growth. Given that it has an annualized production capacity of 600K, NIO is still expected to grow rapidly. The company is estimated to grow its top line by a phenomenal CAGR of 77.7% through FY23.\nNotably, its EBIT consensus estimates also point to a lower EBIT loss margin of 2.1% in FY22. NIO is estimated to turn EBIT profitable by FY23, with an est. EBIT margin of 3.2%.\nTherefore, NIO investors can continue to expect the company to gain traction in its European journey and its home market. In addition, we encourage investors to pay close attention to its new product launches in 2022 as the company expects a strong delivery cadence moving forward. Notwithstanding, based on FQ4'21's guidance, November and December delivery numbers should also be impressive.\nSo, is NIO Stock a Buy Now?\nNIO stock EV/NTM Revenue 3Y mean.\nNIO stock is trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 7.9x. It has come a long way down from its January highs. Moreover, it's also just about 14% above its 3Y mean. Therefore, we believe that NIO stock's valuation seems attractive now. It's a much stronger company than it was three years ago. In addition, it has also significantly improved its operating leverage. Coupled with strong secular drivers underpinning its rapid growth ahead, we believe long-term investors would do well to sit on it. If NIO can continue to build on its delivery cadence, we think that the stock will be re-rated moving ahead in FY22. Therefore, investors should capitalize on its weakness now to add NIO stock to their portfolios.\nConsequently, werate NIO stock at Buy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2817,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":878720173,"gmtCreate":1637235350979,"gmtModify":1637238083836,"author":{"id":"4095738673613450","authorId":"4095738673613450","name":"RaleighZero","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4095738673613450","authorIdStr":"4095738673613450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy !! Buy!!","listText":"Buy !! Buy!!","text":"Buy !! Buy!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878720173","repostId":"1124378970","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124378970","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637229476,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124378970?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-18 17:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Stock Forecast: What To Watch For In 2022<blockquote>蔚来股票预测：2022年值得关注</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124378970","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is one of the leading pure-play new electric vehicle makers in China.We also discuss whether investors should add NIO stock now.NIO posted weak October deliveries. Nonetheless, the company is still leading total deliveries YTD among its leading pure-play peers. The competition is very close, but NIO continues to grow rapidly. The scale and immense opportunities of the Chinese market made Elon Musk famously proclaim that China will be Tesla's largest factory and market.NIO stock has had a su","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>NIO is one of the leading pure-play new electric vehicle makers in China.</li> <li>The company is estimated to grow rapidly, as it expands aggressively into Europe next year.</li> <li>We discuss what investors should expect moving ahead in 2022 and beyond.</li> <li>We also discuss whether investors should add NIO stock now.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffccc5b06bd64a029e813af7f0627d6e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来是国内领先的纯电动汽车制造商之一。</li><li>该公司预计将快速增长，因为它明年将积极向欧洲扩张。</li><li>我们讨论了投资者在2022年及以后应该期待什么。</li><li>我们还讨论投资者现在是否应该添加蔚来股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading new electric vehicle (NEV) players. Despite almost going bankrupt a few years ago, the pure-play NEV player has made a tremendous comeback.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是国内领先的新型电动汽车（NEV）企业之一。尽管几年前差点破产，但这家纯新能源汽车公司已经卷土重来。</blockquote></p><p> NIO posted weak October deliveries. Nonetheless, the company is still leading total deliveries YTD among its leading pure-play peers. The competition is very close, but NIO continues to grow rapidly. The scale and immense opportunities of the Chinese market made Elon Musk famously proclaim that China will be Tesla's (TSLA) largest factory and market.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来10月份交付量疲软。尽管如此，该公司年初至今的总交付量仍在领先的纯业务同行中领先。竞争非常激烈，但蔚来继续快速增长。中国市场的规模和巨大机遇让Elon Musk宣布中国将成为特斯拉(TSLA)最大的工厂和市场。</blockquote></p><p> Amid NIO stock's relatively weak performance in 2021 so far, we discuss whether it's time for investors to add the stock.</p><p><blockquote>在蔚来股票2021年迄今为止表现相对疲软的情况下，我们讨论投资者是否是时候增持该股票了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Stock YTD Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来股票年初至今表现</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c286d28256f44ca6fa6deb496e6e2c98\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO stock YTD performance (as of 15 November 21).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来股票年初至今表现（截至21年11月15日）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO stock has had a subpar year in 2021. While it had started the year strongly, its upward momentum collapsed following the rotation from growth to value stock in February 2021. Despite making a remarkable recovery in May, it has remained in a consolidation phase. In contrast, its Chinese NEV peers have managed better performances so far. NIO stock is currently underperforming its leading Chinese NEV peers, and Tesla stock with a YTD return of -16.8%</p><p><blockquote>蔚来股价在2021年表现不佳。尽管该股今年开局强劲，但在2021年2月从成长股转向价值股后，其上升势头崩溃。尽管5月份出现了显着复苏，但仍处于盘整阶段。相比之下，中国新能源汽车同行迄今为止的表现更好。蔚来股票目前表现落后于中国领先的新能源汽车同行，特斯拉股票年初至今的回报率为-16.8%</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Operates in the World's Largest EV Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来在全球最大的电动汽车市场运营</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite NIO's surprising struggles, the company can count on its home market, China to support its growth. China is the #1 EV market globally, retaking the lead it briefly lost to Europe in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来遭遇了令人惊讶的困境，但该公司可以依靠其本土市场中国来支持其增长。中国是全球第一大电动汽车市场，夺回了2020年短暂输给欧洲的领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> BloombergNEF estimated that EV share of total China car sales will reach 25% in 2025, up from just 6% in 2020. China's government projections are slightly more conservative,putting it at 20% by 2025. However, China's EV sales outperformed these estimates as EV share of total sales reached 17.5% in September and averaged 13% YTD through September.</p><p><blockquote>彭博新能源财经估计，到2025年，电动汽车在中国汽车总销量中的份额将达到25%，高于2020年的6%。中国政府的预测稍微保守一些，预计到2025年将达到20%。然而，中国电动汽车销量超出了这些预期，9月份电动汽车占总销量的份额达到17.5%，年初至今至9月份平均为13%。</blockquote></p><p> Hence, we believe the massive secular tailwinds underpinned by China's national agenda in EV adoption will continue driving growth for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们相信，中国电动汽车采用国家议程所支撑的巨大长期推动力将继续推动蔚来的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, the company expects China to be its most important market even as it charts its European (the world #2 EV market) expansion. NIO CEO William Li emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，该公司预计中国将成为其最重要的市场，尽管它正在规划其欧洲（世界第二大电动汽车市场）的扩张。蔚来首席执行官William Li强调：</blockquote></p><p> If we look at the global market, we can see that <i>China is still the biggest auto market and the biggest premium market</i>, so China will still be the most important market for us. But I believe for the markets outside of China in the long term, they should account for around 50% of the -- of all sales of our product. (from NIO's FQ3'21 earnings call) Therefore, we expect China to continue driving the growth of the company moving forward as it scales. NIO highlighted that it currently has a maximum annual production capacity of 600K. Therefore, the company has positioned itself very well to scale its production moving forward. Considering its current YTD deliveries, we believe NIO's market opportunity is still in the early innings.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们放眼全球市场，我们可以看到<i>中国仍然是最大的汽车市场和最大的高端市场</i>，所以中国仍将是我们最重要的市场。但我相信，从长远来看，对于中国以外的市场，它们应该占我们产品总销售额的50%左右。（来自蔚来21年第三季度盈利看涨期权）因此，我们预计随着公司规模的扩大，中国将继续推动公司的增长。蔚来强调，目前最大年产能为60万辆。因此，该公司已经做好了扩大生产规模的准备。考虑到目前年初至今的交付量，我们认为蔚来的市场机会仍处于早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO's Fledgling Market Opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来刚刚起步的市场机遇</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01decb5c7ce129cf9fc59b2b13ccba85\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>China's leading NEV makers YTD October 21 deliveries. Data source: Various company filings, China Passenger Car Association</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国领先的新能源汽车制造商年初至今10月21日交付量。数据来源：各企业备案，中国乘联会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BYD Company Limited (OTCPK:BYDDF) is China's leading NEV maker. Its YTD deliveries (through October 21) highlight the company's undisputed leadership. We also discussed BYD's thesis in a recent article. Notwithstanding, NIO continues to lead its pure-play peers on YTD deliveries. However, the competition is very close. Nonetheless, we believe that China's massive tailwinds driving EV adoptions would continue to benefit NIO and its peers.</p><p><blockquote>比亚迪股份有限公司（OTCPK：BYDDF）是中国领先的新能源汽车制造商。其年初至今的交付量（截至10月21日）凸显了该公司无可争议的领导地位。我们还在最近的一篇文章中讨论了比亚迪的论文。尽管如此，蔚来今年迄今的交付量继续领先于纯同行。然而，竞争非常激烈。尽管如此，我们相信中国推动电动汽车采用的巨大推动力将继续使蔚来及其同行受益。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, even though NIO reported underwhelming October delivery numbers, we don't believe it's a cause of concern. We will touch more on that later.</p><p><blockquote>此外，尽管蔚来公布的10月份交付数据令人印象深刻，但我们认为这并不令人担忧。我们稍后将详细讨论这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d6d8b43b9aff12d916fdb0327e8974\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO YTD October 21 deliveries by month. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来年初至今10月21日每月交付量。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28ea81aba6c5ceedc67d354d0fe0f604\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO quarterly deliveries by model. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来按型号划分的季度交付量。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Readers can observe the \"abnormally\" weak October delivery numbers of 3.67K. However, we are not unduly concerned about October's numbers. The company telegraphed it needed some downtime to adjust its manufacturing processes to scale ET7 (NIO's upcoming flagship sedan). Notably, the company emphasized that it has \"resumed normal production since late October.\" Li articulated (edited for brevity):</p><p><blockquote>读者可以观察到3.67 K的“异常”疲软的10月份交付数据。然而，我们并不过度担心10月份的数字。该公司表示，需要一些停机时间来调整其制造流程，以扩大ET7（蔚来即将推出的旗舰轿车）的规模。值得注意的是，该公司强调“自10月下旬以来已恢复正常生产”。李阐述（为简洁起见进行了编辑）：</blockquote></p><p> ...To prepare for further capacity expansion and new product introductions including ET7, we implemented upgrades and the restructuring of the manufacturing lines at the Hefei JAC-NIO Advanced Manufacturing Center. <i>Affected by the upgrades and the restructuring, we delivered 3,667 vehicles in October</i>. The plant has resumed normal production since late October. (from NIO's FQ3'21 earnings call) Therefore, we are not too concerned with October's problems. The company guided Q4 deliveries to be between 23.5K to 25.5K. Hence, Q4 deliveries are estimated to be about 24.5K at the midpoint of NIO's guidance. Therefore, QoQ growth is estimated to be flat. Notwithstanding, if we account for October's \"abnormally\" weak numbers, the company expects strong deliveries in November and December. On average, the company expects to deliver about 10.42K units each month for November and December, respectively. That would place it in line with September's record month of 10.63K deliveries. Therefore, the worries about October's weakness have been overblown.</p><p><blockquote>为进一步扩大产能及推出ET7等新产品，我们对蔚来先进制造中心的生产线进行了升级改造。<i>受升级及重组影响，我们于10月交付3,667辆</i>该工厂自10月下旬起已恢复正常生产。（来自蔚来21年第三季度收益看涨期权）因此，我们并不太关心10月份的问题。该公司预计第四季度交付量在23,500至25,500之间。因此，第四季度的交付量估计约为24.5万辆，处于蔚来指导的中点。因此，环比增长预计持平。尽管如此，如果我们考虑到10月份“异常”疲软的数据，该公司预计11月和12月的交付量将强劲。平均而言，该公司预计11月和12月每月分别交付约10,42万台。这将使其与9月份创纪录的10.63万辆交付量持平。因此，对10月疲软的担忧被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's expected deliveries for FY21 would amount to about 90.9K units. Compared to its annual production capacity of 600K units, it's clear that NIO expects to ramp production rapidly moving forward. While it might take some time to reach the 600K annualized run rate, NIO is preparing to launch 3 new products (including ET7) based on its NIO Technology Platform 2.0 in 2022. Therefore, the company is actively refreshing its slate and expects to continue its rapid delivery growth next year.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来预计2021财年的交付量约为9.09万辆。与60万辆的年产能相比，蔚来显然希望未来迅速提高产量。虽然达到60万的年化运行率可能需要一段时间，但蔚来正准备在2022年推出3款基于其蔚来技术平台2.0的新产品（包括ET7）。因此，该公司正在积极刷新其名单，并预计明年将继续其快速的交付增长。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, the company also expects to navigate the chip supply crunch well. It has also impacted NIO in the near term. However, NIO demonstrated its capabilities on its in-house technology as Li explained that they have managed to get around those problems. Li added:</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，该公司还预计能够很好地应对芯片供应紧缩。它在短期内也影响了蔚来。然而，蔚来展示了其内部技术的能力，李解释说他们已经设法解决了这些问题。李补充道：</blockquote></p><p> I would like to specifically mention that because the <i>many domain controllers in our vehicles are actually developed by ourselves in-house</i>. So if there is a shortage of certain chips in the domain controllers, our teams have the capability to quickly find the alternative and do the rapid validation and faster production of those vehicles and the chips. So because of these capabilities, we have already <i>resolved some chip shortage situations happened to our vehicles</i>. (from NIO's FQ3 earnings call) <b>Consensus Estimates Also Agree With NIO's Rapid Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote>我想特别提一下，因为<i>我们车辆中的许多域控制器实际上都是我们自己内部开发的</i>因此，如果域控制器中的某些芯片短缺，我们的团队有能力快速找到替代方案，并对这些车辆和芯片进行快速验证和更快的生产。所以因为这些能力，我们已经<i>解决了我们车辆出现的一些芯片短缺情况</i>.（摘自蔚来第三季度财报看涨期权）<b>共识估计也与蔚来的快速扩张一致</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75908e4cc1b0e008a565a8faaa67a434\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO LTM revenue & operating margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来LTM收入和营业利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/956abb3d98a0a3907c217e0c2e4b00c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO est. revenue mean consensus & est. EBIT margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来东部。收入平均值共识和估计值。息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Readers can quickly glean from the first chart above that NIO has expanded its top line rapidly. Notably, it has also managed to improve its operating leverage tremendously as it scales. As explained, we believe that NIO is very early on in its profitability growth. Given that it has an annualized production capacity of 600K, NIO is still expected to grow rapidly. The company is estimated to grow its top line by a phenomenal CAGR of 77.7% through FY23.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以从上面的第一张图表中很快发现，蔚来的营收迅速扩大。值得注意的是，随着规模的扩大，它还成功地极大地提高了运营杠杆。正如所解释的，我们认为蔚来的盈利增长还处于早期阶段。鉴于其拥有60万的年化产能，蔚来仍有望快速增长。据估计，通过2023财年，该公司的营收将以惊人的77.7%的复合年增长率增长。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, its EBIT consensus estimates also point to a lower EBIT loss margin of 2.1% in FY22. NIO is estimated to turn EBIT profitable by FY23, with an est. EBIT margin of 3.2%.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，其息税前利润共识估计还表明，2022财年息税前利润损失率较低，为2.1%。2023财年预计蔚来将使息税前利润实现盈利。息税前利润率为3.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, NIO investors can continue to expect the company to gain traction in its European journey and its home market. In addition, we encourage investors to pay close attention to its new product launches in 2022 as the company expects a strong delivery cadence moving forward. Notwithstanding, based on FQ4'21's guidance, November and December delivery numbers should also be impressive.</p><p><blockquote>因此，蔚来投资者可以继续期待该公司在欧洲之旅和本土市场获得关注。此外，我们鼓励投资者密切关注其2022年的新产品发布，因为该公司预计未来将有强劲的交付节奏。尽管如此，根据21年第四季度的指导，11月和12月的交付数量也应该令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So, is NIO Stock a Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，蔚来股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b943b23fe0e9f66e7db0040c15948ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO stock EV/NTM Revenue 3Y mean.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来股票EV/NTM收入3年平均值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> NIO stock is trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 7.9x. It has come a long way down from its January highs. Moreover, it's also just about 14% above its 3Y mean. Therefore, we believe that NIO stock's valuation seems attractive now. It's a much stronger company than it was three years ago. In addition, it has also significantly improved its operating leverage. Coupled with strong secular drivers underpinning its rapid growth ahead, we believe long-term investors would do well to sit on it. If NIO can continue to build on its delivery cadence, we think that the stock will be re-rated moving ahead in FY22. Therefore, investors should capitalize on its weakness now to add NIO stock to their portfolios.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来股票的EV/NTM收入为7.9倍。它已经从一月份的高点下跌了很长一段时间。此外，它也比3年平均水平高出约14%。因此，我们认为蔚来股票的估值现在看起来很有吸引力。这是一家比三年前强大得多的公司。此外，还显著提升了经营杠杆。再加上支撑其未来快速增长的强大长期驱动因素，我们相信长期投资者最好坐以待毙。如果蔚来能够继续提高其交付节奏，我们认为该股将在2022财年重新评级。因此，投资者现在应该利用其疲软的机会将蔚来股票添加到他们的投资组合中。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, we<i>rate NIO stock at Buy</i>.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们<i>蔚来股票评级为买入</i>.</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Stock Forecast: What To Watch For In 2022<blockquote>蔚来股票预测：2022年值得关注</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Stock Forecast: What To Watch For In 2022<blockquote>蔚来股票预测：2022年值得关注</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-18 17:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>NIO is one of the leading pure-play new electric vehicle makers in China.</li> <li>The company is estimated to grow rapidly, as it expands aggressively into Europe next year.</li> <li>We discuss what investors should expect moving ahead in 2022 and beyond.</li> <li>We also discuss whether investors should add NIO stock now.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffccc5b06bd64a029e813af7f0627d6e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来是国内领先的纯电动汽车制造商之一。</li><li>该公司预计将快速增长，因为它明年将积极向欧洲扩张。</li><li>我们讨论了投资者在2022年及以后应该期待什么。</li><li>我们还讨论投资者现在是否应该添加蔚来股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading new electric vehicle (NEV) players. Despite almost going bankrupt a few years ago, the pure-play NEV player has made a tremendous comeback.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是国内领先的新型电动汽车（NEV）企业之一。尽管几年前差点破产，但这家纯新能源汽车公司已经卷土重来。</blockquote></p><p> NIO posted weak October deliveries. Nonetheless, the company is still leading total deliveries YTD among its leading pure-play peers. The competition is very close, but NIO continues to grow rapidly. The scale and immense opportunities of the Chinese market made Elon Musk famously proclaim that China will be Tesla's (TSLA) largest factory and market.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来10月份交付量疲软。尽管如此，该公司年初至今的总交付量仍在领先的纯业务同行中领先。竞争非常激烈，但蔚来继续快速增长。中国市场的规模和巨大机遇让Elon Musk宣布中国将成为特斯拉(TSLA)最大的工厂和市场。</blockquote></p><p> Amid NIO stock's relatively weak performance in 2021 so far, we discuss whether it's time for investors to add the stock.</p><p><blockquote>在蔚来股票2021年迄今为止表现相对疲软的情况下，我们讨论投资者是否是时候增持该股票了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Stock YTD Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来股票年初至今表现</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c286d28256f44ca6fa6deb496e6e2c98\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO stock YTD performance (as of 15 November 21).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来股票年初至今表现（截至21年11月15日）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO stock has had a subpar year in 2021. While it had started the year strongly, its upward momentum collapsed following the rotation from growth to value stock in February 2021. Despite making a remarkable recovery in May, it has remained in a consolidation phase. In contrast, its Chinese NEV peers have managed better performances so far. NIO stock is currently underperforming its leading Chinese NEV peers, and Tesla stock with a YTD return of -16.8%</p><p><blockquote>蔚来股价在2021年表现不佳。尽管该股今年开局强劲，但在2021年2月从成长股转向价值股后，其上升势头崩溃。尽管5月份出现了显着复苏，但仍处于盘整阶段。相比之下，中国新能源汽车同行迄今为止的表现更好。蔚来股票目前表现落后于中国领先的新能源汽车同行，特斯拉股票年初至今的回报率为-16.8%</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Operates in the World's Largest EV Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来在全球最大的电动汽车市场运营</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite NIO's surprising struggles, the company can count on its home market, China to support its growth. China is the #1 EV market globally, retaking the lead it briefly lost to Europe in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来遭遇了令人惊讶的困境，但该公司可以依靠其本土市场中国来支持其增长。中国是全球第一大电动汽车市场，夺回了2020年短暂输给欧洲的领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> BloombergNEF estimated that EV share of total China car sales will reach 25% in 2025, up from just 6% in 2020. China's government projections are slightly more conservative,putting it at 20% by 2025. However, China's EV sales outperformed these estimates as EV share of total sales reached 17.5% in September and averaged 13% YTD through September.</p><p><blockquote>彭博新能源财经估计，到2025年，电动汽车在中国汽车总销量中的份额将达到25%，高于2020年的6%。中国政府的预测稍微保守一些，预计到2025年将达到20%。然而，中国电动汽车销量超出了这些预期，9月份电动汽车占总销量的份额达到17.5%，年初至今至9月份平均为13%。</blockquote></p><p> Hence, we believe the massive secular tailwinds underpinned by China's national agenda in EV adoption will continue driving growth for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们相信，中国电动汽车采用国家议程所支撑的巨大长期推动力将继续推动蔚来的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, the company expects China to be its most important market even as it charts its European (the world #2 EV market) expansion. NIO CEO William Li emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，该公司预计中国将成为其最重要的市场，尽管它正在规划其欧洲（世界第二大电动汽车市场）的扩张。蔚来首席执行官William Li强调：</blockquote></p><p> If we look at the global market, we can see that <i>China is still the biggest auto market and the biggest premium market</i>, so China will still be the most important market for us. But I believe for the markets outside of China in the long term, they should account for around 50% of the -- of all sales of our product. (from NIO's FQ3'21 earnings call) Therefore, we expect China to continue driving the growth of the company moving forward as it scales. NIO highlighted that it currently has a maximum annual production capacity of 600K. Therefore, the company has positioned itself very well to scale its production moving forward. Considering its current YTD deliveries, we believe NIO's market opportunity is still in the early innings.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们放眼全球市场，我们可以看到<i>中国仍然是最大的汽车市场和最大的高端市场</i>，所以中国仍将是我们最重要的市场。但我相信，从长远来看，对于中国以外的市场，它们应该占我们产品总销售额的50%左右。（来自蔚来21年第三季度盈利看涨期权）因此，我们预计随着公司规模的扩大，中国将继续推动公司的增长。蔚来强调，目前最大年产能为60万辆。因此，该公司已经做好了扩大生产规模的准备。考虑到目前年初至今的交付量，我们认为蔚来的市场机会仍处于早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO's Fledgling Market Opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来刚刚起步的市场机遇</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01decb5c7ce129cf9fc59b2b13ccba85\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>China's leading NEV makers YTD October 21 deliveries. Data source: Various company filings, China Passenger Car Association</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国领先的新能源汽车制造商年初至今10月21日交付量。数据来源：各企业备案，中国乘联会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BYD Company Limited (OTCPK:BYDDF) is China's leading NEV maker. Its YTD deliveries (through October 21) highlight the company's undisputed leadership. We also discussed BYD's thesis in a recent article. Notwithstanding, NIO continues to lead its pure-play peers on YTD deliveries. However, the competition is very close. Nonetheless, we believe that China's massive tailwinds driving EV adoptions would continue to benefit NIO and its peers.</p><p><blockquote>比亚迪股份有限公司（OTCPK：BYDDF）是中国领先的新能源汽车制造商。其年初至今的交付量（截至10月21日）凸显了该公司无可争议的领导地位。我们还在最近的一篇文章中讨论了比亚迪的论文。尽管如此，蔚来今年迄今的交付量继续领先于纯同行。然而，竞争非常激烈。尽管如此，我们相信中国推动电动汽车采用的巨大推动力将继续使蔚来及其同行受益。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, even though NIO reported underwhelming October delivery numbers, we don't believe it's a cause of concern. We will touch more on that later.</p><p><blockquote>此外，尽管蔚来公布的10月份交付数据令人印象深刻，但我们认为这并不令人担忧。我们稍后将详细讨论这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d6d8b43b9aff12d916fdb0327e8974\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO YTD October 21 deliveries by month. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来年初至今10月21日每月交付量。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28ea81aba6c5ceedc67d354d0fe0f604\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO quarterly deliveries by model. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来按型号划分的季度交付量。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Readers can observe the \"abnormally\" weak October delivery numbers of 3.67K. However, we are not unduly concerned about October's numbers. The company telegraphed it needed some downtime to adjust its manufacturing processes to scale ET7 (NIO's upcoming flagship sedan). Notably, the company emphasized that it has \"resumed normal production since late October.\" Li articulated (edited for brevity):</p><p><blockquote>读者可以观察到3.67 K的“异常”疲软的10月份交付数据。然而，我们并不过度担心10月份的数字。该公司表示，需要一些停机时间来调整其制造流程，以扩大ET7（蔚来即将推出的旗舰轿车）的规模。值得注意的是，该公司强调“自10月下旬以来已恢复正常生产”。李阐述（为简洁起见进行了编辑）：</blockquote></p><p> ...To prepare for further capacity expansion and new product introductions including ET7, we implemented upgrades and the restructuring of the manufacturing lines at the Hefei JAC-NIO Advanced Manufacturing Center. <i>Affected by the upgrades and the restructuring, we delivered 3,667 vehicles in October</i>. The plant has resumed normal production since late October. (from NIO's FQ3'21 earnings call) Therefore, we are not too concerned with October's problems. The company guided Q4 deliveries to be between 23.5K to 25.5K. Hence, Q4 deliveries are estimated to be about 24.5K at the midpoint of NIO's guidance. Therefore, QoQ growth is estimated to be flat. Notwithstanding, if we account for October's \"abnormally\" weak numbers, the company expects strong deliveries in November and December. On average, the company expects to deliver about 10.42K units each month for November and December, respectively. That would place it in line with September's record month of 10.63K deliveries. Therefore, the worries about October's weakness have been overblown.</p><p><blockquote>为进一步扩大产能及推出ET7等新产品，我们对蔚来先进制造中心的生产线进行了升级改造。<i>受升级及重组影响，我们于10月交付3,667辆</i>该工厂自10月下旬起已恢复正常生产。（来自蔚来21年第三季度收益看涨期权）因此，我们并不太关心10月份的问题。该公司预计第四季度交付量在23,500至25,500之间。因此，第四季度的交付量估计约为24.5万辆，处于蔚来指导的中点。因此，环比增长预计持平。尽管如此，如果我们考虑到10月份“异常”疲软的数据，该公司预计11月和12月的交付量将强劲。平均而言，该公司预计11月和12月每月分别交付约10,42万台。这将使其与9月份创纪录的10.63万辆交付量持平。因此，对10月疲软的担忧被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's expected deliveries for FY21 would amount to about 90.9K units. Compared to its annual production capacity of 600K units, it's clear that NIO expects to ramp production rapidly moving forward. While it might take some time to reach the 600K annualized run rate, NIO is preparing to launch 3 new products (including ET7) based on its NIO Technology Platform 2.0 in 2022. Therefore, the company is actively refreshing its slate and expects to continue its rapid delivery growth next year.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来预计2021财年的交付量约为9.09万辆。与60万辆的年产能相比，蔚来显然希望未来迅速提高产量。虽然达到60万的年化运行率可能需要一段时间，但蔚来正准备在2022年推出3款基于其蔚来技术平台2.0的新产品（包括ET7）。因此，该公司正在积极刷新其名单，并预计明年将继续其快速的交付增长。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, the company also expects to navigate the chip supply crunch well. It has also impacted NIO in the near term. However, NIO demonstrated its capabilities on its in-house technology as Li explained that they have managed to get around those problems. Li added:</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，该公司还预计能够很好地应对芯片供应紧缩。它在短期内也影响了蔚来。然而，蔚来展示了其内部技术的能力，李解释说他们已经设法解决了这些问题。李补充道：</blockquote></p><p> I would like to specifically mention that because the <i>many domain controllers in our vehicles are actually developed by ourselves in-house</i>. So if there is a shortage of certain chips in the domain controllers, our teams have the capability to quickly find the alternative and do the rapid validation and faster production of those vehicles and the chips. So because of these capabilities, we have already <i>resolved some chip shortage situations happened to our vehicles</i>. (from NIO's FQ3 earnings call) <b>Consensus Estimates Also Agree With NIO's Rapid Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote>我想特别提一下，因为<i>我们车辆中的许多域控制器实际上都是我们自己内部开发的</i>因此，如果域控制器中的某些芯片短缺，我们的团队有能力快速找到替代方案，并对这些车辆和芯片进行快速验证和更快的生产。所以因为这些能力，我们已经<i>解决了我们车辆出现的一些芯片短缺情况</i>.（摘自蔚来第三季度财报看涨期权）<b>共识估计也与蔚来的快速扩张一致</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75908e4cc1b0e008a565a8faaa67a434\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO LTM revenue & operating margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来LTM收入和营业利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/956abb3d98a0a3907c217e0c2e4b00c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO est. revenue mean consensus & est. EBIT margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来东部。收入平均值共识和估计值。息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Readers can quickly glean from the first chart above that NIO has expanded its top line rapidly. Notably, it has also managed to improve its operating leverage tremendously as it scales. As explained, we believe that NIO is very early on in its profitability growth. Given that it has an annualized production capacity of 600K, NIO is still expected to grow rapidly. The company is estimated to grow its top line by a phenomenal CAGR of 77.7% through FY23.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以从上面的第一张图表中很快发现，蔚来的营收迅速扩大。值得注意的是，随着规模的扩大，它还成功地极大地提高了运营杠杆。正如所解释的，我们认为蔚来的盈利增长还处于早期阶段。鉴于其拥有60万的年化产能，蔚来仍有望快速增长。据估计，通过2023财年，该公司的营收将以惊人的77.7%的复合年增长率增长。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, its EBIT consensus estimates also point to a lower EBIT loss margin of 2.1% in FY22. NIO is estimated to turn EBIT profitable by FY23, with an est. EBIT margin of 3.2%.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，其息税前利润共识估计还表明，2022财年息税前利润损失率较低，为2.1%。2023财年预计蔚来将使息税前利润实现盈利。息税前利润率为3.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, NIO investors can continue to expect the company to gain traction in its European journey and its home market. In addition, we encourage investors to pay close attention to its new product launches in 2022 as the company expects a strong delivery cadence moving forward. Notwithstanding, based on FQ4'21's guidance, November and December delivery numbers should also be impressive.</p><p><blockquote>因此，蔚来投资者可以继续期待该公司在欧洲之旅和本土市场获得关注。此外，我们鼓励投资者密切关注其2022年的新产品发布，因为该公司预计未来将有强劲的交付节奏。尽管如此，根据21年第四季度的指导，11月和12月的交付数量也应该令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So, is NIO Stock a Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，蔚来股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b943b23fe0e9f66e7db0040c15948ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO stock EV/NTM Revenue 3Y mean.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来股票EV/NTM收入3年平均值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> NIO stock is trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 7.9x. It has come a long way down from its January highs. Moreover, it's also just about 14% above its 3Y mean. Therefore, we believe that NIO stock's valuation seems attractive now. It's a much stronger company than it was three years ago. In addition, it has also significantly improved its operating leverage. Coupled with strong secular drivers underpinning its rapid growth ahead, we believe long-term investors would do well to sit on it. If NIO can continue to build on its delivery cadence, we think that the stock will be re-rated moving ahead in FY22. Therefore, investors should capitalize on its weakness now to add NIO stock to their portfolios.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来股票的EV/NTM收入为7.9倍。它已经从一月份的高点下跌了很长一段时间。此外，它也比3年平均水平高出约14%。因此，我们认为蔚来股票的估值现在看起来很有吸引力。这是一家比三年前强大得多的公司。此外，还显著提升了经营杠杆。再加上支撑其未来快速增长的强大长期驱动因素，我们相信长期投资者最好坐以待毙。如果蔚来能够继续提高其交付节奏，我们认为该股将在2022财年重新评级。因此，投资者现在应该利用其疲软的机会将蔚来股票添加到他们的投资组合中。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, we<i>rate NIO stock at Buy</i>.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们<i>蔚来股票评级为买入</i>.</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470158-nio-stock-forecast\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470158-nio-stock-forecast","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124378970","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is one of the leading pure-play new electric vehicle makers in China.\nThe company is estimated to grow rapidly, as it expands aggressively into Europe next year.\nWe discuss what investors should expect moving ahead in 2022 and beyond.\nWe also discuss whether investors should add NIO stock now.\n\nAndy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nNIO Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading new electric vehicle (NEV) players. Despite almost going bankrupt a few years ago, the pure-play NEV player has made a tremendous comeback.\nNIO posted weak October deliveries. Nonetheless, the company is still leading total deliveries YTD among its leading pure-play peers. The competition is very close, but NIO continues to grow rapidly. The scale and immense opportunities of the Chinese market made Elon Musk famously proclaim that China will be Tesla's (TSLA) largest factory and market.\nAmid NIO stock's relatively weak performance in 2021 so far, we discuss whether it's time for investors to add the stock.\nNIO Stock YTD Performance\nNIO stock YTD performance (as of 15 November 21).\nNIO stock has had a subpar year in 2021. While it had started the year strongly, its upward momentum collapsed following the rotation from growth to value stock in February 2021. Despite making a remarkable recovery in May, it has remained in a consolidation phase. In contrast, its Chinese NEV peers have managed better performances so far. NIO stock is currently underperforming its leading Chinese NEV peers, and Tesla stock with a YTD return of -16.8%\nNIO Operates in the World's Largest EV Market\nDespite NIO's surprising struggles, the company can count on its home market, China to support its growth. China is the #1 EV market globally, retaking the lead it briefly lost to Europe in 2020.\nBloombergNEF estimated that EV share of total China car sales will reach 25% in 2025, up from just 6% in 2020. China's government projections are slightly more conservative,putting it at 20% by 2025. However, China's EV sales outperformed these estimates as EV share of total sales reached 17.5% in September and averaged 13% YTD through September.\nHence, we believe the massive secular tailwinds underpinned by China's national agenda in EV adoption will continue driving growth for NIO.\nNotably, the company expects China to be its most important market even as it charts its European (the world #2 EV market) expansion. NIO CEO William Li emphasized:\n\n If we look at the global market, we can see that\n China is still the biggest auto market and the biggest premium market, so China will still be the most important market for us. But I believe for the markets outside of China in the long term, they should account for around 50% of the -- of all sales of our product. (from NIO's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n\nTherefore, we expect China to continue driving the growth of the company moving forward as it scales. NIO highlighted that it currently has a maximum annual production capacity of 600K. Therefore, the company has positioned itself very well to scale its production moving forward. Considering its current YTD deliveries, we believe NIO's market opportunity is still in the early innings.\nNIO's Fledgling Market Opportunity\nChina's leading NEV makers YTD October 21 deliveries. Data source: Various company filings, China Passenger Car Association\nBYD Company Limited (OTCPK:BYDDF) is China's leading NEV maker. Its YTD deliveries (through October 21) highlight the company's undisputed leadership. We also discussed BYD's thesis in a recent article. Notwithstanding, NIO continues to lead its pure-play peers on YTD deliveries. However, the competition is very close. Nonetheless, we believe that China's massive tailwinds driving EV adoptions would continue to benefit NIO and its peers.\nIn addition, even though NIO reported underwhelming October delivery numbers, we don't believe it's a cause of concern. We will touch more on that later.\nNIO YTD October 21 deliveries by month. Data source: Company filings\nNIO quarterly deliveries by model. Data source: Company filings\nReaders can observe the \"abnormally\" weak October delivery numbers of 3.67K. However, we are not unduly concerned about October's numbers. The company telegraphed it needed some downtime to adjust its manufacturing processes to scale ET7 (NIO's upcoming flagship sedan). Notably, the company emphasized that it has \"resumed normal production since late October.\" Li articulated (edited for brevity):\n\n ...To prepare for further capacity expansion and new product introductions including ET7, we implemented upgrades and the restructuring of the manufacturing lines at the Hefei JAC-NIO Advanced Manufacturing Center.\n Affected by the upgrades and the restructuring, we delivered 3,667 vehicles in October. The plant has resumed normal production since late October. (from NIO's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n\nTherefore, we are not too concerned with October's problems. The company guided Q4 deliveries to be between 23.5K to 25.5K. Hence, Q4 deliveries are estimated to be about 24.5K at the midpoint of NIO's guidance. Therefore, QoQ growth is estimated to be flat. Notwithstanding, if we account for October's \"abnormally\" weak numbers, the company expects strong deliveries in November and December. On average, the company expects to deliver about 10.42K units each month for November and December, respectively. That would place it in line with September's record month of 10.63K deliveries. Therefore, the worries about October's weakness have been overblown.\nNIO's expected deliveries for FY21 would amount to about 90.9K units. Compared to its annual production capacity of 600K units, it's clear that NIO expects to ramp production rapidly moving forward. While it might take some time to reach the 600K annualized run rate, NIO is preparing to launch 3 new products (including ET7) based on its NIO Technology Platform 2.0 in 2022. Therefore, the company is actively refreshing its slate and expects to continue its rapid delivery growth next year.\nNotably, the company also expects to navigate the chip supply crunch well. It has also impacted NIO in the near term. However, NIO demonstrated its capabilities on its in-house technology as Li explained that they have managed to get around those problems. Li added:\n\n I would like to specifically mention that because the\n many domain controllers in our vehicles are actually developed by ourselves in-house. So if there is a shortage of certain chips in the domain controllers, our teams have the capability to quickly find the alternative and do the rapid validation and faster production of those vehicles and the chips. So because of these capabilities, we have already\n resolved some chip shortage situations happened to our vehicles. (from NIO's FQ3 earnings call)\n\nConsensus Estimates Also Agree With NIO's Rapid Expansion\nNIO LTM revenue & operating margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nNIO est. revenue mean consensus & est. EBIT margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nReaders can quickly glean from the first chart above that NIO has expanded its top line rapidly. Notably, it has also managed to improve its operating leverage tremendously as it scales. As explained, we believe that NIO is very early on in its profitability growth. Given that it has an annualized production capacity of 600K, NIO is still expected to grow rapidly. The company is estimated to grow its top line by a phenomenal CAGR of 77.7% through FY23.\nNotably, its EBIT consensus estimates also point to a lower EBIT loss margin of 2.1% in FY22. NIO is estimated to turn EBIT profitable by FY23, with an est. EBIT margin of 3.2%.\nTherefore, NIO investors can continue to expect the company to gain traction in its European journey and its home market. In addition, we encourage investors to pay close attention to its new product launches in 2022 as the company expects a strong delivery cadence moving forward. Notwithstanding, based on FQ4'21's guidance, November and December delivery numbers should also be impressive.\nSo, is NIO Stock a Buy Now?\nNIO stock EV/NTM Revenue 3Y mean.\nNIO stock is trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 7.9x. It has come a long way down from its January highs. Moreover, it's also just about 14% above its 3Y mean. Therefore, we believe that NIO stock's valuation seems attractive now. It's a much stronger company than it was three years ago. In addition, it has also significantly improved its operating leverage. Coupled with strong secular drivers underpinning its rapid growth ahead, we believe long-term investors would do well to sit on it. If NIO can continue to build on its delivery cadence, we think that the stock will be re-rated moving ahead in FY22. Therefore, investors should capitalize on its weakness now to add NIO stock to their portfolios.\nConsequently, werate NIO stock at Buy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2817,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
