青蛙德的个人主页 - 老虎社区

青蛙德

青蛙德

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IP属地：四川

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0勋章

2025-12-17

$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 无底线

2025-12-15

$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 一路向下，看不到止跌信号

2025-10-10

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 这洗的太凶残了

2025-08-21

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 下去，上面不是你该来的地方，时候未到！

2025-08-21

$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$ 给老子冲，别做伪娘

2025-08-21

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 下去，上来搞锤子

2025-08-15

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 你为啥要跌？！！！为啥

2025-08-06

跑太快容易摔倒！放慢脚步吧

2025-08-06

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 速度回调！！！

2025-08-05

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今天好弱啊！

2025-06-04

$联合健康(UNH)$ 那么多看涨的，咋个可能涨的起来，擦！！！！赶紧看跌啊，沃日

2025-05-28

$联合健康(UNH)$ 太疲软了，疲到家了！！！

2025-05-25

大实话

美国真的想消除贸易逆差？德银：简单，美元贬值40%就够了

2025-05-23

$联合健康(UNH)$ 那么多看涨的，必跌！杀期货

2025-04-01

欧耶

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18:16","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"美国真的想消除贸易逆差？德银：简单，美元贬值40%就够了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2537935291","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"德银发现，过去15年美元实际汇率相对于一篮子货币平均升值约40%，如果能够逆转这一升值幅度，可能足以使美国贸易逆差回归零平衡或更好水平。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>德银发现，过去15年美元实际汇率相对于一篮子货币平均升值约40%，如果能够逆转这一升值幅度，可能足以使美国贸易逆差回归零平衡或更好水平。</p></blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>经济学家Peter Hooper在最新研究报告中提出了一个看似&#34;简单&#34;的消除美国贸易逆差方案——美元贬值40%。</p><p>报告指出，美元实际汇率的波动是推动美国外贸逆差的最持续驱动因素，而逆转过去15年来美元40%的实际升值幅度，可能足以使贸易逆差回归零平衡。</p><p>不过，美元大幅贬值将对全球市场产生剧烈冲击，新兴市场和出口导向型经济体将面临严重打击，从而发生全球经济衰退。</p><p>Hooper认为，现有的关税政策虽有助于缩小逆差，但将带来价格上涨和增长放缓的痛苦代价。所以美国政府未来可能出现政策转向，放弃以关税为重点的贸易政策。</p><h2 id=\"id_802792673\">美国贸易逆差的核心驱动因素</h2><p>德银报告确定了推动美国贸易逆差达到当前水平的关键因素。报告指出，<strong>美元实际汇率的波动是美国外贸逆差最持续的驱动因素</strong>，这主要由财政和货币政策的根本性转变以及海外私人和政府储蓄变化所推动。</p><p>报告特别提到，美国对世界其他地区的逆差已扩大到前所未有的高度。特朗普上台之后，不惜推出大萧条以来最大规模的关税政策，正式为了解决这个问题。</p><h2 id=\"id_4181092444\">美元40%贬值的&#34;解决方案&#34;</h2><p>德银的关键发现是，<strong>过去15年美元实际汇率相对于一篮子货币平均升值约40%，如果能够逆转这一升值幅度，可能足以使美国贸易逆差回归零平衡或更好水平</strong>。</p><p>报告中的图表显示，美元贬值20-30%最终可能足以将逆差缩小约3%的GDP。这意味着，如果美元能够显著逆转自2010年以来约40%的实际升值幅度，就可能使当前逆差回到零平衡状态。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f1bf293895ab130d3e8376c37cba42b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"306\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3558927876\">全球经济的潜在冲击</h2><p>报告警告，美元40%的大幅贬值将对全球经济产生灾难性影响。由于大多数新兴市场经济体和欧洲大部分地区的增长都是出口驱动型的，<strong>美元40%的下跌将转化为其他货币40%的升值，这可能导致全球经济萧条</strong>。</p><p>德银认为，虽然存在更有效且痛苦较少的替代路径来处理贸易逆差，但这种首选路径目前在政治上可能不可行。不过，报告预期<strong>随着当前以关税为重点政策的负面经济影响在未来几个月变得更加明显，民众压力将推动政策转向</strong>。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f1bf293895ab130d3e8376c37cba42b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"306\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2044988585\">关税政策可能会扭转</h2><p>不过德银<strong>认为，目前的关税确实能在一定程度上缩小贸易逆差</strong>。这是因为两个原因：</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p>外国对美国激进关税政策的报复可能比过去更加犹豫和温和</p></li><li><p>特朗普关税导致了美元贬值，而非通常伴随关税而来的升值</p></li></ol><p>然而，报告强调，<strong>关税政策在增加价格和减少产出方面付出了巨大代价</strong>，这些负面影响预计将在未来几个月显现，并可能持续数年。</p><p><strong>报告指出，虽然削减赤字没有一条无痛之路，但美元贬值可能是更有效、痛苦更少的路径。</strong>这条优先路径目前在政治上可能不可行。但随着当前以关税为重点的政策的负面经济影响在未来几个月愈发明显，民众要求扭转这一政策的压力正在增强。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国真的想消除贸易逆差？德银：简单，美元贬值40%就够了</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国真的想消除贸易逆差？德银：简单，美元贬值40%就够了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-05-24 18:16 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3747776><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>德银发现，过去15年美元实际汇率相对于一篮子货币平均升值约40%，如果能够逆转这一升值幅度，可能足以使美国贸易逆差回归零平衡或更好水平。德意志银行经济学家Peter Hooper在最新研究报告中提出了一个看似\"简单\"的消除美国贸易逆差方案——美元贬值40%。报告指出，美元实际汇率的波动是推动美国外贸逆差的最持续驱动因素，而逆转过去15年来美元40%的实际升值幅度，可能足以使贸易逆差回归零平衡。不过...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3747776\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4eb38b95a6b8cf963d8108ff90eb2e3","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3747776","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2537935291","content_text":"德银发现，过去15年美元实际汇率相对于一篮子货币平均升值约40%，如果能够逆转这一升值幅度，可能足以使美国贸易逆差回归零平衡或更好水平。德意志银行经济学家Peter Hooper在最新研究报告中提出了一个看似\"简单\"的消除美国贸易逆差方案——美元贬值40%。报告指出，美元实际汇率的波动是推动美国外贸逆差的最持续驱动因素，而逆转过去15年来美元40%的实际升值幅度，可能足以使贸易逆差回归零平衡。不过，美元大幅贬值将对全球市场产生剧烈冲击，新兴市场和出口导向型经济体将面临严重打击，从而发生全球经济衰退。Hooper认为，现有的关税政策虽有助于缩小逆差，但将带来价格上涨和增长放缓的痛苦代价。所以美国政府未来可能出现政策转向，放弃以关税为重点的贸易政策。美国贸易逆差的核心驱动因素德银报告确定了推动美国贸易逆差达到当前水平的关键因素。报告指出，美元实际汇率的波动是美国外贸逆差最持续的驱动因素，这主要由财政和货币政策的根本性转变以及海外私人和政府储蓄变化所推动。报告特别提到，美国对世界其他地区的逆差已扩大到前所未有的高度。特朗普上台之后，不惜推出大萧条以来最大规模的关税政策，正式为了解决这个问题。美元40%贬值的\"解决方案\"德银的关键发现是，过去15年美元实际汇率相对于一篮子货币平均升值约40%，如果能够逆转这一升值幅度，可能足以使美国贸易逆差回归零平衡或更好水平。报告中的图表显示，美元贬值20-30%最终可能足以将逆差缩小约3%的GDP。这意味着，如果美元能够显著逆转自2010年以来约40%的实际升值幅度，就可能使当前逆差回到零平衡状态。全球经济的潜在冲击报告警告，美元40%的大幅贬值将对全球经济产生灾难性影响。由于大多数新兴市场经济体和欧洲大部分地区的增长都是出口驱动型的，美元40%的下跌将转化为其他货币40%的升值，这可能导致全球经济萧条。德银认为，虽然存在更有效且痛苦较少的替代路径来处理贸易逆差，但这种首选路径目前在政治上可能不可行。不过，报告预期随着当前以关税为重点政策的负面经济影响在未来几个月变得更加明显，民众压力将推动政策转向。关税政策可能会扭转不过德银认为，目前的关税确实能在一定程度上缩小贸易逆差。这是因为两个原因：外国对美国激进关税政策的报复可能比过去更加犹豫和温和特朗普关税导致了美元贬值，而非通常伴随关税而来的升值然而，报告强调，关税政策在增加价格和减少产出方面付出了巨大代价，这些负面影响预计将在未来几个月显现，并可能持续数年。报告指出，虽然削减赤字没有一条无痛之路，但美元贬值可能是更有效、痛苦更少的路径。这条优先路径目前在政治上可能不可行。但随着当前以关税为重点的政策的负面经济影响在未来几个月愈发明显，民众要求扭转这一政策的压力正在增强。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1073,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":438167116079520,"gmtCreate":1748009255557,"gmtModify":1748011505503,"author":{"id":"4088322767092640","authorId":"4088322767092640","name":"青蛙德","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6069aacc4fd90474a29bb205313f5b32","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088322767092640","authorIdStr":"4088322767092640"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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id=\"id_4181092444\">美元40%贬值的&#34;解决方案&#34;</h2><p>德银的关键发现是，<strong>过去15年美元实际汇率相对于一篮子货币平均升值约40%，如果能够逆转这一升值幅度，可能足以使美国贸易逆差回归零平衡或更好水平</strong>。</p><p>报告中的图表显示，美元贬值20-30%最终可能足以将逆差缩小约3%的GDP。这意味着，如果美元能够显著逆转自2010年以来约40%的实际升值幅度，就可能使当前逆差回到零平衡状态。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f1bf293895ab130d3e8376c37cba42b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"306\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3558927876\">全球经济的潜在冲击</h2><p>报告警告，美元40%的大幅贬值将对全球经济产生灾难性影响。由于大多数新兴市场经济体和欧洲大部分地区的增长都是出口驱动型的，<strong>美元40%的下跌将转化为其他货币40%的升值，这可能导致全球经济萧条</strong>。</p><p>德银认为，虽然存在更有效且痛苦较少的替代路径来处理贸易逆差，但这种首选路径目前在政治上可能不可行。不过，报告预期<strong>随着当前以关税为重点政策的负面经济影响在未来几个月变得更加明显，民众压力将推动政策转向</strong>。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f1bf293895ab130d3e8376c37cba42b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"306\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2044988585\">关税政策可能会扭转</h2><p>不过德银<strong>认为，目前的关税确实能在一定程度上缩小贸易逆差</strong>。这是因为两个原因：</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p>外国对美国激进关税政策的报复可能比过去更加犹豫和温和</p></li><li><p>特朗普关税导致了美元贬值，而非通常伴随关税而来的升值</p></li></ol><p>然而，报告强调，<strong>关税政策在增加价格和减少产出方面付出了巨大代价</strong>，这些负面影响预计将在未来几个月显现，并可能持续数年。</p><p><strong>报告指出，虽然削减赤字没有一条无痛之路，但美元贬值可能是更有效、痛苦更少的路径。</strong>这条优先路径目前在政治上可能不可行。但随着当前以关税为重点的政策的负面经济影响在未来几个月愈发明显，民众要求扭转这一政策的压力正在增强。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国真的想消除贸易逆差？德银：简单，美元贬值40%就够了</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国真的想消除贸易逆差？德银：简单，美元贬值40%就够了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-05-24 18:16 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3747776><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>德银发现，过去15年美元实际汇率相对于一篮子货币平均升值约40%，如果能够逆转这一升值幅度，可能足以使美国贸易逆差回归零平衡或更好水平。德意志银行经济学家Peter Hooper在最新研究报告中提出了一个看似\"简单\"的消除美国贸易逆差方案——美元贬值40%。报告指出，美元实际汇率的波动是推动美国外贸逆差的最持续驱动因素，而逆转过去15年来美元40%的实际升值幅度，可能足以使贸易逆差回归零平衡。不过...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3747776\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4eb38b95a6b8cf963d8108ff90eb2e3","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3747776","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2537935291","content_text":"德银发现，过去15年美元实际汇率相对于一篮子货币平均升值约40%，如果能够逆转这一升值幅度，可能足以使美国贸易逆差回归零平衡或更好水平。德意志银行经济学家Peter Hooper在最新研究报告中提出了一个看似\"简单\"的消除美国贸易逆差方案——美元贬值40%。报告指出，美元实际汇率的波动是推动美国外贸逆差的最持续驱动因素，而逆转过去15年来美元40%的实际升值幅度，可能足以使贸易逆差回归零平衡。不过，美元大幅贬值将对全球市场产生剧烈冲击，新兴市场和出口导向型经济体将面临严重打击，从而发生全球经济衰退。Hooper认为，现有的关税政策虽有助于缩小逆差，但将带来价格上涨和增长放缓的痛苦代价。所以美国政府未来可能出现政策转向，放弃以关税为重点的贸易政策。美国贸易逆差的核心驱动因素德银报告确定了推动美国贸易逆差达到当前水平的关键因素。报告指出，美元实际汇率的波动是美国外贸逆差最持续的驱动因素，这主要由财政和货币政策的根本性转变以及海外私人和政府储蓄变化所推动。报告特别提到，美国对世界其他地区的逆差已扩大到前所未有的高度。特朗普上台之后，不惜推出大萧条以来最大规模的关税政策，正式为了解决这个问题。美元40%贬值的\"解决方案\"德银的关键发现是，过去15年美元实际汇率相对于一篮子货币平均升值约40%，如果能够逆转这一升值幅度，可能足以使美国贸易逆差回归零平衡或更好水平。报告中的图表显示，美元贬值20-30%最终可能足以将逆差缩小约3%的GDP。这意味着，如果美元能够显著逆转自2010年以来约40%的实际升值幅度，就可能使当前逆差回到零平衡状态。全球经济的潜在冲击报告警告，美元40%的大幅贬值将对全球经济产生灾难性影响。由于大多数新兴市场经济体和欧洲大部分地区的增长都是出口驱动型的，美元40%的下跌将转化为其他货币40%的升值，这可能导致全球经济萧条。德银认为，虽然存在更有效且痛苦较少的替代路径来处理贸易逆差，但这种首选路径目前在政治上可能不可行。不过，报告预期随着当前以关税为重点政策的负面经济影响在未来几个月变得更加明显，民众压力将推动政策转向。关税政策可能会扭转不过德银认为，目前的关税确实能在一定程度上缩小贸易逆差。这是因为两个原因：外国对美国激进关税政策的报复可能比过去更加犹豫和温和特朗普关税导致了美元贬值，而非通常伴随关税而来的升值然而，报告强调，关税政策在增加价格和减少产出方面付出了巨大代价，这些负面影响预计将在未来几个月显现，并可能持续数年。报告指出，虽然削减赤字没有一条无痛之路，但美元贬值可能是更有效、痛苦更少的路径。这条优先路径目前在政治上可能不可行。但随着当前以关税为重点的政策的负面经济影响在未来几个月愈发明显，民众要求扭转这一政策的压力正在增强。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1073,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":419771380179264,"gmtCreate":1743515007701,"gmtModify":1743515878031,"author":{"id":"4088322767092640","authorId":"4088322767092640","name":"青蛙德","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6069aacc4fd90474a29bb205313f5b32","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088322767092640","idStr":"4088322767092640"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"欧耶","listText":"欧耶","text":"欧耶","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44744dea8b41f293b2a44885fec7db22","width":"1130","height":"1589"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/419771380179264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":925,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}